Sunday’s La Liga Predictions & Best Bets
Andy Robson
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Valencia v Girona
The days of José Bordalás’ defensive football are in the past at Mestalla, as new coach Gennaro Gattuso has brought with him an attacking flair that was previously absent. With an average of 2.4 goals per game in matches involving Gattuso teams as a coach, he looks set to bring the same kind of entertainment to La Liga.
Pre-season has included goal-heavy encounters with Atalanta (2-1), Stuttgart (2-5) and Dortmund (1-3) as Gattuso has changed this team completely, with a stark increase from 2.47 total xG per game in 2021/22 to 2.85 across the club’s pre-season friendlies, helped by an increase from 20.6 to 23.2 shots per game.
Among Valencia’s goalscorers in the warm-ups was Hugo Duro, who scored a brace against Atalanta last time out and who, at 2.8 to score anytime, represents excellent value. The same can be said of Girona’s Cristhian Stuani at 3.3 to score anytime, given that he scored 24 in Segunda last season and registered 20 last time he was in Primera División in 2019/20.
Girona coach Míchel is also known for his attacking brand of football, which saw an average of 2.4 goals and 2.6 xG per match in Segunda last season. The step up in quality in opposition offence could punish the Catalan side dearly, as they’ve found in a 4-2 defeat to Benfica and a 3-1 loss to Napoli in pre-season.
His previous experience in the top flight has seen his teams average 2.7 goals per game, and there’s every reason to think that the combination of that approach and Gattuso’s change in style at Valencia could see plenty of goals scored on Sunday evening.
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