Once again our League Scouts have been hard at work, combing through fixtures to find the very best value bets available this Sunday.
We have games from as far and wide as Scandinavia and South America, taking in best bets drawn from the Swedish Allsvenskan and Norwegian Eliteserien in Europe, before crossing the globe for the late kick-offs in the Bolivian Primera División, Paraguayan Primera División and the Brazilian Serie A.
After comfortably winning the Paraguayan Primera Division’s Apertura season, Libertad are looking to continue their good start to the Clausura season as they aim to win both titles in 2023.
Meanwhile, in the Norwegian Eliteserien we have games featuring both of the top two sides, Bodø/Glimt and Tromsø, whilst in Sweden we take in Elfsborg’s home tie against Göteborg, where the hosts will be attempting to retain their spot at the top of the table.
We have you covered with the best bets today for all the football being played across the world, and to take advantage of any these value picks you can sign up to Betfair via the offer below. Sign up to Betfair, deposit £5 on any game and get £20 in free bets:
Sunday’s League Scout Best Bets
Hammarby v Kalmar FF
Hammarby’s roller coaster season continues, having not won two consecutive matches all season. After a tough encounter with Elfsborg, ending in a 2-0 defeat, they got back to winning ways last weekend, beating Sirius 2-1. While their play has steadily improved over the course of the campaign, clicking better in attack and scoring more as a result, the defensive solidity remains a real worry.
Nadir Besara is still one of the best midfielders in the league and provided two assists last game, while their young attackers are starting to make a more regular impact. Jusef Erabi, recently turned 20, has scored in two of his last three Allsvenskan matches while also getting on the scoresheet for Sweden’s U21 side.
On the other flank, August Mikkelsen has often started but struggled to perform. He is expected to remain out injured for another week or two, and Montader Madjed could remain in the starting lineup despite being inconsistent in his recent outings. Even then, Hammarby tend to spread the goals around and have managed to score in 5 of their 7 home matches to date.
Kalmar FF haven’t let the loss of brilliant manager Henrik Rydström derail their campaign. Recruiting Mileta Rajovic has been a real masterstroke – the striker is a proper number 9 who already has 7 goals to his name. He has added weight to a creative attacking lineup, while they remain solid defensively. The 4-0 loss to league leaders Elfsborg last week was a miscalculation but can be considered an anomaly in an otherwise strong campaign.
Goalkeeper Friedrich’s straight red card didn’t help matters, and it means he remains out for this game. Jakob Kindberg may be capable but is nowhere near the level of Friedrich who has proven himself as one of the best shot stoppers in the division.
With Kalmar frailer defensively as a result we can expect Hammarby, who are improving offensively, to bag at least a goal. The away side, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back from a heavy defeat and are likely to take the game to the Stockholm hosts.
Elfsborg v IFK Göteborg
Elfsborg’s stormer of a season continued last weekend, demolishing a normally rugged Kalmar side by a 4-0 scoreline away from home. They were aided by a questionable red card for the Kalmar keeper Friedrich late in the first half, but nonetheless, Elfsborg looked good value for their win.
The Borås side have been ruthless all season long, and despite losing their young starlet Jacob Ondrejka over the summer, have continued to bulldoze their way to the top of the table. With Malmö surprisingly faltering against Mjällby, Elfsborg capitalised in full and are now a point ahead of their fellow title contenders. Häcken are hot on their heels, too, three points behind, in a race which could go down in history for its competitiveness.
Elfsborg don’t look like they have many deficiencies, they are incredibly robust, experienced in defence and scintillating in attack. With a strong midfield base and varied forward threats, so dangerous on the counter and able to build from the back too, Malmö will need to get back on track quickly to keep up.
IFK Göteborg, on the other hand, are in real trouble. Only one win in 15 matches this season tells its own story, and Sweden’s most successful club needs serious improvement to not face relegation in a few months’ time. After their solitary league win, another 8 games have passed without any further successes.
New manager Jens Askou was a strange appointment after getting relegated with his Danish side AC Horsens, and not much has changed since. They are still struggling massively in build-up and are unable to create dangerous chances with regularity, as shown by their 12 goals scored. Marcus Berg has slowed down somewhat but still possesses plenty of quality at Allsvenskan level – it matters little when he is barely getting any chances though.
The home side is pushing for their first league title in 15 years and won’t be stopped here by the struggling Göteborg.
Lillestrøm v Sandefjord
The first of three best bets from the Norwegian Eliteserien, and it has been a turbulent week for Lillestrøm with major news that broke on Wednesday morning that manager Geir Bakke was leaving to take charge of their arch-rivals Vålerenga. This has generated shock and anger amongst the fanbase, but it might be something which totally galvanises the club and players.
Lillestrøm will be under temporary charge for this fixture vs Sandefjord, and they are a heavy favourite to prevail at 1.29. LSK are in mixed form with just 2 wins in 6 games. They did come from 0-1 down to beat Rosenborg last week with Nigerian striker Akor Adams netting a brace of goals.
Sandefjord were one of the pre-season favourites to be relegated and recent results are starting to show why. They’ve only had 2 wins all season and lost 5 of their last 7 fixtures. Sandefjord have conceded a whopping 14 goals in their last three road games which have included a 0-5 battering at Molde and a 1-6 thumping vs Sarpsborg.
They are legitimately bad with an overall average xGA of 1.83, the worst of any team in the division. Sandefjord cannot maintain these metrics if they harbour survival aspirations. Offensively they haven’t been much better, only netting 13 goals in 12 games which simply isn’t good enough.
Despite Lillestrøm’s dramatic week off the field they shouldn’t have too many problems obtaining all three points here. They are by far the better side and should have way too much offensive strength to put Sandefjord to the sword. Rather than taking the home team to win at a measly 1.29, we are looking at the LSK victory with over 2.5 goals which is priced at 1.73.
They could cover this goal line all on their own, but it is worth noting that Lillestrøm have only kept 2 clean sheets all season. Something like 3-1 is the most likely result so it makes sense to search for more value, and those looking to push the boat out may choose to consider LSK to win & over 3.5 goals, at odds of 2.80.
Rosenborg v Tromsø
The nightmare season for Rosenborg keeps getting worse! Since they sacked Kjetil Rekdal they have lost three consecutive matches, the most recent of which was a 1-2 defeat at home to Lillestrøm last week. RBK can have some serious regret about that fixture. They led early thanks to a well-struck Ole Christian Saeter goal but then missed a glut of chances to extend their lead. They paid for it when Lillestrøm then scored two late goals to beat them.
Rosenborg’s xG in their last 3 games has been over 6.0 but they have only scored once. New manager Svein Maalen is already under some pressure, but he cannot ultimately control the players ability to put the ball into the back of the net when chances arise. Surely at some stage Rosenborg will start firing in more goals.
An overachieving Tromsø side travel to the Lerkendal Stadion in 2nd position. They’ve had a great season so far with 8 wins and only 2 defeats. There is no doubt that Gutan have rode their luck though and their underlying metrics are nothing special. They have averaged 1.31 goals per match but only have an xG of 1.13. At the other end of the field there has been huge defensive overachievement. TIL have conceded the fewest goals of any team (11) but have an overall xGA of 18.85.
This is not something which is sustainable long term and they’ve been indebted to some great goalkeeping from Jakob Haugaard and last ditch defending. Last week was one of the few times they deserved more than the 0-0 vs Vålerenga that they ended up with. Tromsø dominated the match but couldn’t find a way past goalkeeper Magnus Sjoeng who had fantastic match.
The visitors have plenty of pace in attack and we can expect them to break strongly here. The likes of Mai Traore and Vegard Erlien are strong contenders to get on the scoresheet. I am amazed that over 2.5 is available at the price of evens. Rosenborg simply have to win and will go all out for the victory and this fixture could become a shootout.
Recent meetings have been high scoring between the two teams as well. Last season Tromsø won a 4-3 thriller whilst in 2021 Rosenborg netted late to win 3-2. The home defence can’t be relied upon and as aforementioned, Tromsø are massively overachieving at the back. All things point towards goals.
Bodø/Glimt v Haugesund
It has been a solid week for Bodø/Glimt with them claiming consecutive 2-0 victories away from home in the league and cup respectively. Glimt endured a slight wobble when they lost to Godset (0-2) and then needed a late equaliser to rescue a draw vs Molde (2-2). But they’ve rebounded well and are now 8 points clear at the top of the table. If they beat Haugesund in this fixture, then at the halfway stage of the campaign they’d be on course to finish with 76 points which would easily be enough to win the Eliteserien title.
Kjetil Knutsen’s men now posses the best xG and xGA metrics in the division. At both ends of the field they’ve had full control of proceedings and the key this season is that they’ve managed to keep things much tighter defensively. 6 of their 11 wins have been to nil which is an impressive statistic.
The home side are strong 1.15 favourites to beat a poor looking Haugesund team. The visitors are in 11th place and have a five point cushion to the relegation zone. Pre-season, they were many peoples tip to finish bottom, but they’ve used their experienced, especially in winnable games facing rivals towards the bottom of the table.
The underlying metrics for Haugesund are still very concerning though. They have the lowest average xG per 90 mins of any team (0.87), whilst only Sandefjord have a worse xGA (1.77). They’ve managed to overachieve defensively, mostly because goalkeeper Egil Selvik has had a fantastic season making several great saves. Haugesund ‘s lack of firepower is especially concerning, and their strikers will likely be feeding off scraps here.
Nobody is going to get rich backing Bodø/Glimt to win at 1.15. But they do look a banker to prevail and anything other than a home victory would be a huge shock. There are different betting angles to attack the game and I think the best option is to take Bodø/Glimt on a -1 handicap at 1.44. This covers the exact 2-0 scoreline which is very possible when you consider the fact they’ve won by this exact scoreline four times in all competitions this season.
There’s a strong chance of Glimt winning to nil with 3-0 or 4-0 also having every possibility. The home team total over 2.5 goals or Glimt to win and over 2.5 goals could additionally be considered but taking the -1 handicap is more straightforward and less of a risk when considering Glimt are a side who will often take their foot off the gas once they get two goals to the good.
Royal Pari v Bolivar
The Tahuichi Aguilera in Santa Cruz on Sunday evening will bear witness in what promises to be an intriguing battle of the wills between in-form and much improved home side Royal Pari and the best side in the country Bolivar. Both teams are scoring regularly and come away from successful midweek games in the League Cup, with Royal Pari beating Tomayapo 3-0, while Bolivar put 4 past a hapless Libertad Gran Mamore.
Bolivar come into this game with seven wins and one draw to their name in the last ten, the only recent defeat coming away to Palmeiras in the Libertadores. Pari for their part seem to have found their feet under manager Abrigo and have recorded three wins and a draw in the last five, their only misstep being a 4-2 defeat at Independiente, who coincidentally enough recently inflicted a rare defeat also on Bolivar.
The goal tallies are very high for these two sides, Pari have 19 and Bolivar 17 in the last five and that points to a high scoring match. Look out for Sellecchia and Correa who have each bagged five for Pari this season while the other end, the Chilean Fernandez, is on fire with 11 to his name already this season.
Fluminense v Flamengo
One of the games of the weekend in the Brazilian Serie A sees two fierce rivals lock horns as Fluminense take on Flamengo at the iconic Maracanã stadium in Rio de Janeiro in the latest chapter of the Flu-Fla rivalry.
The pair have met five times already in 2023 across three competitions there’s been two wins for each side and a draw. Fluminense claimed the Carioca title with a victory over Flamengo, whilst the Rubro Negro got their revenge in the Copa do Brasil with a 2-0 aggregate win. This will be the first Brasileirão meeting of the year.
With only two wins in their last seven, Fluminense’s form has been relatively poor by their standards, something they must improve on. Last time out, they did show signs that they were going in the right direction as they saw off Internacional in a 2-0 home win. Their XG of 1.06 was greater than Inter’s 0.44, backing up that they were well worth the three points.
They will be without Alexsander, Marlon, Diogo Barbosa, Manoel and Jorge for this duel, but do come into this fixture having had extra time to prepare for the due with no midweek distractions.
Since their 4-0 loss to Bragantino, Flamengo have now gone six matches unbeaten with five wins and a draw. The draw came in their last league fixture, which saw them earn a decent point on the road against Palmeiras in a 1-1 draw, in what was an even contest. Then in midweek, the Rubro Negro despite having fewer attempts on goal, enjoyed a 2-0 victory in the Copa do Brasil against Athletico Paranaense on the road, sending them into the Semi-final stage of the competition.
Flamengo have three players missing for this duel, Erick Pulgar, Bruno Henrique and Ayrton Lucas.
Although playing in their usual home, this is an away fixture for Flamengo and the Rubro Negro have conceded in 13 of their last 14 away matches, whilst, Fluminense have conceded in 11 of their last 12 matches. With that in mind, I’d expect both teams to find the net in this duel.
Sao Paulo v Santos
There’s not just one huge iconic classic taking place in Brazil this Sunday, there are two, as Sao Paulo host Santos in the latest chapter of the San-São. This will be the second meeting between the sides this year, the first one in the league. The last encounter came in the Campeonato Paulista and saw Sao Paulo enjoy a 3-1 victory on home soil.
Sao Paulo come into this match in great form, they are unbeaten in their last five outings in all competitions and in midweek, they earned a fantastic win with a 2-1 victory away from home against Palmeiras which sealed their place in the Copa do Brasil Quarter finals. Their last league outing was also an inner Sao Paulo battle, where they drew 0-0 away from home against Red Bull Bragantino. Sao Paulo didn’t create much in the game and were second best, so they can’t have any complaints about the match ending in a draw.
Tricolour will be without; Lucas Beraldo, Igor Vinicius, Ferraresi, Galoppo and Gabriel who miss out due to injury.
After 12 matches without a victory, Santos could finally celebrate last time out as they earned a 4-3 victory over Goias thanks to a stoppage-time penalty from John Stiven Mendoza in a classic affair. The XG for the game saw Santos have 2.40 compared to Goias’ 2.11, showing they just edged it. Santos will now be hoping to build on their win but know they must improve defensively if they are to do so.
Peixe have absentees in; Alison and Felipe Jonatan are injured, whilst Rodrigo Fernandez, Vladimir and Luan Dias are suspended.
Coming into this one, everything points towards a home win. Santos have only won once on the road all year and even though they enjoyed a victory last time out, they still showed they have problems keeping out goals and with Sao Paulo coming into this duel on the back of a huge cup win confidence will be high and they should pick up the three points.
Guaraní v Libertad
Guaraní and Libertad both won on the opening day and this promises to be an exciting clash between two of the title challengers. Guaraní are four games unbeaten conceding just twice in that run, while Libertad come into the match having played the Copa Sudamericana midweek against Tigre.
The aurinegro have managed to keep Federico Santander for the rest of the year following the sale of Jorge Morel to Cerro. His partnership with fellow veteran Néstor Camacho has been fruitful so far but Pumpido’s doubts are more with the midfield balance. Romeo Benitez and Luis Fariña were both used against Luqueño while Estivel Moreira also appeared to try and bring more balance in closing moments. The latter could be used from the start to try and break up Libertad’s possession football.
With the Tigre game taking place on Thursday and the 2nd leg coming up next week this league match could be seen of something of a distraction for Daniel Garnero. However, as Libertad have proved time and again they have a deep squad to compete effectively in two competitions. The Apertura top scorer Óscar Cardozo and the latest young star, Enso González didn’t start midweek so are expected to be in what will be a strong lineup here.
The last meeting was a 0-0 draw, and since Guaraní were on the end of a 6-1 thrashing at home in 2021 they have only lost once to Libertad in Dos Bocas. Given the Gumarelo will have one eye on the Sudamericana there is a good chance that the home side keep up their strong recent record in this fixture.
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