Toronto FC v Seattle Sounders

With the MLS action spread over three days this weekend with the United States preparing to celebrate Independence Day, there are just two matches taking place on Saturday evening into the early hours of Sunday morning UK time.

The first of those to kick off comes from BMO Field where a struggling Toronto FC side take on the Seattle Sounders in what is a repeat of the 2016 and MLS Cup finals where Seattle won the first on penalties before the Canadians got their revenge. They also played out the 2019 MLS Cup final which Seattle cruised to victory in.

Those outings created a bit of a rivalry between these two teams and matches since have been extremely competitive and I’m not expecting anything different here either when you consider that Toronto need to launch a run of wins to get themselves into play-off contention, while Seattle come in off the back of a home loss to CF Montreal, which has left them looking over their shoulders in seventh place.

Toronto were beaten by Columbus Crew in midweek having beaten Atlanta United last weekend but with Lorenzo Insigne now in the country and preparing for his debut next week, you would expect the TFC quality to rise accordingly in the coming matches.

The attacking play of Seattle needs no introduction with internationals all across their front line and they will be looking to feast on a Toronto defence which has conceded the second most in MLS this term.

Seattle have only kept one clean sheet on their travels this term though so the Canadians should find openings at the top end of the pitch themselves. Although Toronto lost to Columbus in midweek, their xG for the game was 2.22 so it was a good attacking performance, one which makes me confident both teams will find the net here.

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New York City FC v Atlanta United

New York City FC has kept five clean sheets in their home games But look at who they’ve kept them against: Chicago, Columbus, Kansas City, Salt Lake and San Jose. Those five have struggled to score away all season, getting shut out in 23 of 45 away matches combined.

Atlanta’s total goals when traveling also aren’t very impressive, but they’ve found at least one per match in their last five. And they’ve improved qualitatively as a relatively recently assembled squad learns each other.

Further, manager Gonzalo Pineda rotated several attackers — including Josef Martinez, Marcelino Moreno and Emerson Hyndman — in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss at the New York Red Bulls. He’ll also get talented winger Thiago Almada back from a three-match ban on Sunday. And his team has significantly underachieved expected goals predictions playing away, and are probably due for a good bounce or two.

It’s not clear whether NYCFC striker Valentin Castellanos will be back after missing a 4-4 draw at FC Cincinnati on Wednesday to illness.

But his teammates are far more comfortable without him this season.

Like-for-like replacement Heber hasn’t seen regular minutes in a while but was a 15-goal scorer in MLS in 2019 and had a brace Wednesday. Talented Brazilian prospect Talles Magno has made enormous strides in Year 2 in the league. 

Both teams are dealing with injury absences at the back as well. Atlanta’s are longer term and more serious, but if Maxime Chanot can’t return after being forced off early in Cincy City could be without two of their three centre backs.

All of this is pointing to playing yes on both teams to score at 1.65 odds. Yankee Stadium is a hard place for visitors to get a result. But that doesn’t mean each team can’t find a goal.

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