Coventry City v Middlesbrough
Championship Play-Off Semi-Final
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Kick Off: 12:00
Coventry City v Middlesbrough Cheat Sheet
Robins & Gyokeres lead Coventry to success
There aren’t many managers who can point to a record of club improvement as strongly as Mark Robins.
Delving into the history of the Sky Blues doesn’t help us from a betting perspective, so we won’t do that, but what is relevant is the way that Robins reinvented Coventry tactically this season whilst they have been missing one of their key men in #10 Callum O’Hare.
There has been versatility shown throughout the season, but the way that Coventry have ended the season, with Gus Hamer being released a bit more to support Gyokeres and Matt Godden, has been the catalyst for the top-six push. Unfortunately, the bookmakers haven’t been caught out on Hamer’s move forwards, he is priced pretty accurately as one of Coventry’s key threats.
Heading into this first leg, Coventry’s home form has been good. The key stats are 5 wins from their last 10 at the CBS, but winning the xG (expected goals) battle on 7/10 occasions, meaning that they are regularly creating more goal threat than their opponents. Indeed, Coventry are running at an xG differential of +0.4 over their last 10 home matches, therefore creating almost half a goals worth of better chances than their opponents. This goes part way to explaining that solid home record.
Has Carrick’s momentum stalled?
There is no doubt that Michael Carrick has had an outstanding start to his managerial career. The Middlesbrough team he took over jad moved their goals from promotion, to playoffs, to almost being happy to survive such were the poor results.
However, despite those results, the underlying numbers were still good. Wilder could certainly point to a little bit of a lack of fortune, but equally, Carrick has brought something else to the squad. Great man management, tactically positive, and great development of a team using players in positions that seemed unusual at first.
Chuba Akpom’s role is the most obvious example. Having mostly played as a 9, Carrick identified his skill set to be effective as a technical, ball-carrying, strong #10 that could use his instincts to arrive at the end of chances and create for others as well. Akpom has become the fulcrum of an attack that has multiple threats, however, there can be no doubt that Middlesbrough have gone off the boil somewhat in recent weeks.
When Boro were the clear threat to Sheffield United for the 2nd automatic promotion spot they were flying. However, since that became an unlikely outcome, the team seem to have subconsciously taken their foot off the pedal.
Boro’s away form is poor, with three defeats and a draw in their last four. In their last ten, they have an xG differential of 0, but we have seen them shut out by Sunderland, West Brom, and Rotherham of late. It may well be that they are able to turn it back on for the important games coming up, but Carrick would probably have preferred to maintain a slightly higher level coming into the playoffs.
Team News
Coventry City Team News
Obviously, these two teams played against each other last week so will be familiar with each other’s work. This may encourage changes, but if not, there are no changes on the injury front for Mark Robins.
This means that we will likely see a 3-5-2 for the Sky Blues. Luke McNally, Kyle McFadzean and Callum Doyle should make up the central defence, with Jake Bidwell and Brooke Norton-Cuffy as wing-backs.
Josh Eccles and Liam Kelly, in potentially his last few weeks at Coventry, will patrol the midfield, allowing Hamer to support the front two, likely to be Gyokeres and Godden.
Middlesbrough Team News
It doesn’t seem as though any of Middlesbrough’s injury absentees will be available for this clash.
This probably means that Alex Mowatt will continue alongside Hayden Hackney in place of regular captain Jonny Howson.
This pair will form the double-pivot in a 4-2-3-1 formation with a likely back four of Tommy Smith, Darragh Lenihan, Paddy McNair, and Ryan Giles.
In the front four Akpom will play behind Cameron Archer, with those players having scored the most and second most goals in the league respectively since Archer’s arrival. The wide spots look likely to go to Riley McGree and possibly Isaiah Jones, who has played his way into the team of late.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
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Odds: 1.65
Despite the fact that both teams have options going forwards it is worth bearing in mind the situation of the tie.
This first 90 minutes is only the first half of the tie. It is worth considering the attitude and tactics of a team that goes down even to an early goal in this match.
If Coventry do score early, it would surely be more sensible for Boro to remain patient. In normal circumstances one would expect Boro to open up and chase an equaliser, but a 1-0 deficit, though far from ideal, should be recoverable at the Riverside. Falling to a multi-goal defeat, a la Sheffield Wednesday in League One should be avoided at all costs.
The same obviously applies the other way around, but it is unlikely that Coventry concede more than once. They have conceded over 1xG only twice in their last ten matches.
1-1 was the scoreline last week with a bit more freedom in the match, it feels unlikely, given the tension and format of the match here, that there will be a goal fest.
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Prediction: Hayden Hackney to commit 2+ Fouls
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Odds: 1.36
Hackney has been a mainstay in the team ever since caretaker Leo Percovich gave him a chance. The local lad has also been a mainstay in the referees’ eyesight as well as Hackney leads Boro’s foul count by a street.
In the last 10 matches, Hackney has fouled more than double the amount of the next highest Boro player. Hackney also plays a lot of minutes, which is a positive for this bet too.
Hackney’s last nine starts read 2,1,3,2,2,1,6(!),3,3 in terms of fouls committed. A continuation of that average makes even this relatively short price seem like good value.
The final part of this selection which supports it is that both Gus Hamer and Viktor Gyokeres are highly fouled players, both of whom could play in Hackney’s area.
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Prediction: Gustavo Hamer to have 1+ Shots on Target
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Odds: 1.50
As has been mentioned a couple of times, Hamer is playing quite far forward than has traditionally been his role since his move to Coventry three summers ago.
As a result, he is getting more opportunities to shoot from closer to the goal, giving him a better chance of a shot on target.
He is also on set pieces for Coventry, which is obviously a big chance of a shot on target as well.
Hamer has two shots on target last week at the Riverside, he drew a blank against Birmingham before that, but then his record reads 2, 2, 2 in the three starts before that. He averages 1.01 per 90 over the course of the season but definitely has picked up his shot production of late.
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Bradford City v Carlisle
League Two Play-Off Semi-Final
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Kick Off: 19.00
Bradford City v Carlisle Cheat Sheet
Living Up To The Big Occasion
With more than 20,000 expected to be present at Valley Parade for this first leg, Bradford City are once again presented with a big occasion at home. That pressure and expectation has been something of a burden on the Bantams in recent seasons that they haven’t always been able to live up to. Finishing the season with the 10th best home record in League Two, despite pulling in crowds that rival clubs in the first and second tiers, is clear evidence of that. Bradford have been faced with several of these big occasions at Valley Parade in 2022-23 alone, and have not always been able to make the most of them. Had they done, Bradford would not be needing these play-offs and would instead likely have had automatic promotion wrapped up before now.
Not only will the Bantams face a tough test this Sunday in front of an expectant crowd, it is difficult to ignore the potential narrative circling around some of the ex-players in the Carlisle squad. Jordan Gibson and Omari Patrick were not popular figures at Valley Parade for their time playing in claret and amber, and have shown a tendency to curse their former employees in meetings with them. When the pair drew 0-0 in West Yorkshire in March, it was Gibson who came very close to winning the match in the 96th minute with a low shot that bounced back out off the post. There may well be Bantams fans who dread the thought of the pair making their time miserable again.
The Magic Of The Messiah
They say never go back, that doesn’t seem to apply to Paul Simpson at Carlisle United. Back in the mid-2000s, Simpson led the Cumbrians from the Conference to League One in two seasons whilst player manager. His return to Brunton Park came at the latter end of last season with Carlisle 23rd in the League Two table. The 56-year-old secured survival for the Cumbria outfit, and in the space of just over 14 months has transformed Carlisle into a team that has made a realistic push for League One football all season.
The achievement becomes even more impressive when you assess the tools at Simpson’s disposal. Carlisle’s squad would generally be considered mid-table to most, containing a number of players other promotion hopefuls would not have considered worthwhile. Simpson’s gift has raised the level of these players beyond what was felt possible, with no better example coming from striker Kristian Dennis who has scored 20 league goals in a season for the first time since he was with Macclesfield Town in 2015-16. On top of that, Simpson has had to adapt to an injury list that never seemed to shrink in size, always seeing a new player suffer a setback as another returned. That injury list has forced Simpson into putting players in auxiliary roles on the pitch. Ben Barclay for instance is a natural central defender, but has been able to fit into a right-wing-back that may previously have not been thought possible for him.
Team News
Bradford City Team News
Bradford City could well remain unchanged from their final day 1-1 draw at home to Leyton Orient. Midfielder Adam Clayton has had his match fitness improved after playing the first hour last Monday and could be in line to start again alongside Alex Gilliead and Richie Smallwood.
Striker Andy Cook and right winger Scott Banks should be key figures in the frontline. With striker Vadaine Oliver and left winger Harry Chapman out of action, the challenge for Mark Hughes has been finding that man to fill the hole on the left-hand-side. Jamie Walker played there as part of a 4-3-3 on the final day, though he could be moved back into attacking midfield in the more usual 4-2-3-1. The likes of Abo Eisa, Thierry Nevers and Dion Pereira are among the candidates to fill that left-winger role if that is the case.
Carlisle Team News
There is no bigger team news for Carlisle than the suspension of Jon Mellish. His red card in Carlisle’s penultimate league game against Salford City means that he will miss both legs of this Bradford City tie. It is a blow for Carlisle to lose a player who has been a valuable part of the Cumbrian’s midfield and backline for several seasons. Striker John-Kymani Gordon serves the final game of his own suspension for violent conduct.
Simpson may well have the same group to work with that he did on the final day down at Sutton United. Mellish’s suspension may open the door for Alfie McCalmont to continue in midfield alongside Callum Guy and Owen Moxon. Middlesbrough loanee Jack Robinson may earn what would be only his second Carlisle start after featuring on the left side of defence against Sutton. Ben Barclay has had his loan spell from Stockport County extended earlier this week and that allows him to continue being available in his auxiliary right-wing-back role.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score – No
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Odds: 1.73
It’s hard to ignore the setbacks facing Carlisle United ahead of this play-off tie, especially the suspension of Jon Mellish. The 25-year-old usually operates on the left side of the back three, capable of stepping out of the backline in possession and providing an occasional overlap down the left flank. Depending on the situation of the game, Simpson has in turn moved Mellish up into midfield where he provides a physical, box-to-box presence and a reminder of the 11-goal season he recorded under Chris Beech.
Not only are Carlisle now more vulnerable in defence, but they have also lacked the attacking proficiency that was present earlier in the season. Top scorer Kristian Dennis has just three goals to his name since February. Carlisle have in turn failed to score in six of their last eleven matches, dropping below the standard expected from a side up at the top end of the division.
The Cumbrians may struggle to keep Bradford at bay all game, and may well struggle to even find the net themselves unless Kristian Dennis or Omari Patrick rediscover their previous form.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
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Odds: 1.50
So little separated Bradford City and Carlisle United in the League Two season. The pair finished sixth and fifth respectively, level on points and with identical 20-16-10 records. The only difference was a 23-18 goal difference in Carlisle’s favour.
It’s that tight separation that would make it a surprise to see one team blow the other away. League Two is the tightest of the three EFL play-off campaigns with just four points separating the top and bottom of it. In a first leg especially where the stakes are high, neither will likely want to give the other a serious advantage. As Friday night at London Road showed, you cannot win a play-off tie in the first leg, but you can certainly lose it.
There was just a single goal scored in the two regular season games between Bradford City and Carlisle United, and that trend could well continue into these play-off matches. Bradford have star defenders in Sam Stubbs and Romoney Crichlow, Carlisle likewise have Paul Huntington as a key defensive figure who can deliver even if not having Jon Mellish available alongside him. A high-scoring affair would be a pleasant surprise on Sunday evening.
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Prediction: Andy Cook to have 1+ Shot on Target
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Odds: 1.22
No Bradford City player has been more deserving of ‘key man’ status than Andy Cook. The 32-year-old has been a regular goal-getter for years at multiple lower-league clubs, but up until now had found his most prolific seasons in his non-league days. Having scored 20 in his previous 18 months at Valley Parade, Cook has this season stormed to the fourth-tier golden boot with 28 goals from 46 appearances, the best return of his senior career.
The striker often superbly leads the line for the Bantams, averaging 3.2 shots per 90 minutes and seeing the vast majority of those come from within 18 yards of goal. Cook’s complete game is what has enabled him to become such a force under Mark Hughes, a player capable of towering over centre-backs from crosses and sneaking ahead of markers to latch onto low deliveries.
Cook will be earmarked as the main player to watch in the build-up to this tie, and rightly so. A goal from him could prove the moment that gives the hosts a first-leg lead that they should crave.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer
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