Coventry City v Middlesbrough

Championship Play-Off Semi-Final

Coventry City v Middlesbrough Cheat Sheet

Robins & Gyokeres lead Coventry to success

There aren't many managers who can point to a record of club improvement as strongly as Mark Robins.

Delving into the history of the Sky Blues doesn't help us from a betting perspective, so we won't do that, but what is relevant is the way that Robins reinvented Coventry tactically this season whilst they have been missing one of their key men in #10 Callum O'Hare.

There has been versatility shown throughout the season, but the way that Coventry have ended the season, with Gus Hamer being released a bit more to support Gyokeres and Matt Godden, has been the catalyst for the top-six push. Unfortunately, the bookmakers haven't been caught out on Hamer's move forwards, he is priced pretty accurately as one of Coventry's key threats.

Heading into this first leg, Coventry's home form has been good. The key stats are 5 wins from their last 10 at the CBS, but winning the xG (expected goals) battle on 7/10 occasions, meaning that they are regularly creating more goal threat than their opponents. Indeed, Coventry are running at an xG differential of +0.4 over their last 10 home matches, therefore creating almost half a goals worth of better chances than their opponents. This goes part way to explaining that solid home record.

Has Carrick’s momentum stalled?

There is no doubt that Michael Carrick has had an outstanding start to his managerial career. The Middlesbrough team he took over jad moved their goals from promotion, to playoffs, to almost being happy to survive such were the poor results.

However, despite those results, the underlying numbers were still good. Wilder could certainly point to a little bit of a lack of fortune, but equally, Carrick has brought something else to the squad. Great man management, tactically positive, and great development of a team using players in positions that seemed unusual at first.

Chuba Akpom's role is the most obvious example. Having mostly played as a 9, Carrick identified his skill set to be effective as a technical, ball-carrying, strong #10 that could use his instincts to arrive at the end of chances and create for others as well. Akpom has become the fulcrum of an attack that has multiple threats, however, there can be no doubt that Middlesbrough have gone off the boil somewhat in recent weeks.

When Boro were the clear threat to Sheffield United for the 2nd automatic promotion spot they were flying. However, since that became an unlikely outcome, the team seem to have subconsciously taken their foot off the pedal.

Boro's away form is poor, with three defeats and a draw in their last four. In their last ten, they have an xG differential of 0, but we have seen them shut out by Sunderland, West Brom, and Rotherham of late. It may well be that they are able to turn it back on for the important games coming up, but Carrick would probably have preferred to maintain a slightly higher level coming into the playoffs.

Team News

Coventry City Team News

Obviously, these two teams played against each other last week so will be familiar with each other's work. This may encourage changes, but if not, there are no changes on the injury front for Mark Robins.

This means that we will likely see a 3-5-2 for the Sky Blues. Luke McNally, Kyle McFadzean and Callum Doyle should make up the central defence, with Jake Bidwell and Brooke Norton-Cuffy as wing-backs.

Josh Eccles and Liam Kelly, in potentially his last few weeks at Coventry, will patrol the midfield, allowing Hamer to support the front two, likely to be Gyokeres and Godden.

Middlesbrough Team News

It doesn't seem as though any of Middlesbrough's injury absentees will be available for this clash.

This probably means that Alex Mowatt will continue alongside Hayden Hackney in place of regular captain Jonny Howson. 

This pair will form the double-pivot in a 4-2-3-1 formation with a likely back four of Tommy Smith, Darragh Lenihan, Paddy McNair, and Ryan Giles.

In the front four Akpom will play behind Cameron Archer, with those players having scored the most and second most goals in the league respectively since Archer's arrival. The wide spots look likely to go to Riley McGree and possibly Isaiah Jones, who has played his way into the team of late.

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Bradford City v Carlisle

League Two Play-Off Semi-Final

Bradford City v Carlisle Cheat Sheet

Living Up To The Big Occasion

With more than 20,000 expected to be present at Valley Parade for this first leg, Bradford City are once again presented with a big occasion at home. That pressure and expectation has been something of a burden on the Bantams in recent seasons that they haven’t always been able to live up to. Finishing the season with the 10^th best home record in League Two, despite pulling in crowds that rival clubs in the first and second tiers, is clear evidence of that. Bradford have been faced with several of these big occasions at Valley Parade in 2022-23 alone, and have not always been able to make the most of them. Had they done, Bradford would not be needing these play-offs and would instead likely have had automatic promotion wrapped up before now.

Not only will the Bantams face a tough test this Sunday in front of an expectant crowd, it is difficult to ignore the potential narrative circling around some of the ex-players in the Carlisle squad. Jordan Gibson and Omari Patrick were not popular figures at Valley Parade for their time playing in claret and amber, and have shown a tendency to curse their former employees in meetings with them. When the pair drew 0-0 in West Yorkshire in March, it was Gibson who came very close to winning the match in the 96^th minute with a low shot that bounced back out off the post. There may well be Bantams fans who dread the thought of the pair making their time miserable again.

The Magic Of The Messiah

They say never go back, that doesn’t seem to apply to Paul Simpson at Carlisle United. Back in the mid-2000s, Simpson led the Cumbrians from the Conference to League One in two seasons whilst player manager. His return to Brunton Park came at the latter end of last season with Carlisle 23^rd in the League Two table. The 56-year-old secured survival for the Cumbria outfit, and in the space of just over 14 months has transformed Carlisle into a team that has made a realistic push for League One football all season. 

The achievement becomes even more impressive when you assess the tools at Simpson’s disposal. Carlisle’s squad would generally be considered mid-table to most, containing a number of players other promotion hopefuls would not have considered worthwhile. Simpson’s gift has raised the level of these players beyond what was felt possible, with no better example coming from striker Kristian Dennis who has scored 20 league goals in a season for the first time since he was with Macclesfield Town in 2015-16. On top of that, Simpson has had to adapt to an injury list that never seemed to shrink in size, always seeing a new player suffer a setback as another returned. That injury list has forced Simpson into putting players in auxiliary roles on the pitch. Ben Barclay for instance is a natural central defender, but has been able to fit into a right-wing-back that may previously have not been thought possible for him.

Team News

Bradford City Team News 

Bradford City could well remain unchanged from their final day 1-1 draw at home to Leyton Orient. Midfielder Adam Clayton has had his match fitness improved after playing the first hour last Monday and could be in line to start again alongside Alex Gilliead and Richie Smallwood. 

Striker Andy Cook and right winger Scott Banks should be key figures in the frontline. With striker Vadaine Oliver and left winger Harry Chapman out of action, the challenge for Mark Hughes has been finding that man to fill the hole on the left-hand-side. Jamie Walker played there as part of a 4-3-3 on the final day, though he could be moved back into attacking midfield in the more usual 4-2-3-1. The likes of Abo Eisa, Thierry Nevers and Dion Pereira are among the candidates to fill that left-winger role if that is the case.

Carlisle Team News 

There is no bigger team news for Carlisle than the suspension of Jon Mellish. His red card in Carlisle’s penultimate league game against Salford City means that he will miss both legs of this Bradford City tie. It is a blow for Carlisle to lose a player who has been a valuable part of the Cumbrian’s midfield and backline for several seasons. Striker John-Kymani Gordon serves the final game of his own suspension for violent conduct.

Simpson may well have the same group to work with that he did on the final day down at Sutton United. Mellish’s suspension may open the door for Alfie McCalmont to continue in midfield alongside Callum Guy and Owen Moxon. Middlesbrough loanee Jack Robinson may earn what would be only his second Carlisle start after featuring on the left side of defence against Sutton. Ben Barclay has had his loan spell from Stockport County extended earlier this week and that allows him to continue being available in his auxiliary right-wing-back role.

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