We’ve had alot of success betting on Xavier Worthy in the second half of the season, and I think we can once again in the Super Bowl. He ended the season with 6+ receptions in 4 of his last 5 games, establishing himself as the lead option on a stacked Cheifs roster averaging over 80% of snaps to end the season. I expect the Eagles to really focus in on Travis Kelce, and with the Eagles forcing tons of quick passing Xavier Worthy should be a guy who sees increased volume.

The Eagles are a heavy zone coverage defence, and they like to keep everything in front of them. Xavier Worthy has an insanely low 2.4 average depth of target which means he has extremely high percentage targets to convert on. Since Hollywood Brown rejoined the team, Worthy is averaging over 2 screen passes per game, giving him an incredibly safe baseline. Not only is he leading all receivers in routes with the safest role on the team, but he also gets a bunch of short-yardage passes making him an ideal target for receptions. He’s looked better every week and you can really see the trust with Mahomes.

It’s also positive to see the coaching staff echo these same sentiments, “The kid every week, has just gotten better and better,” Reid said. “He’s really put together a nice half of the season, the second half here, not that he didn’t have good plays in the first half. But you could see he was learning in the first half”.

The rookie receiver last played in the Caesars Superdome in the CFP Semifinal against the Washington Huskies on Jan. 1, 2024, in which his Texas Longhorns lost 37-31. When asked about it, Worthy said that he was excited to get redemption in the biggest game of his life. The second half of the season has been about proving people wrong for Worthy, and I think he can do it one more time in the biggest game of the season.

During Philly’s Divisional Round matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, the Eagles were a bit hesitant calling the tush push for Jalen Hurts after he sustained a knee injury. But in the NFC Championship win against the Washington Commanders, the Eagles went back to using Hurts in short-yardage situations, leading to him scoring three rushing TDs in their 55-23 win.

Hurts has scored a rushing touchdown in 12 separate games this season and is clearly the lead option on the goal line. The Tush Push is one of the most unstoppable plays in the NFL, and while it may be infuriating to watch, I’d still like to benefit by making some money.

I think Juju Smith-Schuster is one of the more underrated names for this exciting Super Bowl matchup. Juju has seen his role grow substantially in the playoffs with a 41% and 63% route run rate in the last two games. He has surpassed DeAndre Hopkins in the pecking order and only ran 4 fewer routes than Hollywood Brown last week. He went 2-60 last week against the Bills on 3 targets despite fairly limited passing volume from Mahomes.

Without Nakobe Dean, LB Oren Burks has allowed 21-of-23 targets to be caught this season and Juju runs a ton of his routes over the middle and predominantly lined up in the interior last week. I fully expect Vic Fangio to have a plan for Kelce and maybe even stick Cooper DeJean on him a fair amount. With that happening and both outside corners likely holding their own, that leaves Juju and Xavier Worthy against linebackers over the middle. That’s how he got a 30-yard catch last week, finding a pocket in the zone in between the linebackers on a slant. This will likely be one of the Chief’s biggest matchup advantages on offence in the Super Bowl as well.

While I have always been a fan of Pacheco, he has not looked like the same guy since coming back from injury. In that same time he has struggled, Kareem Hunt looks very solid and should operate as the #1 back. Pacheco has seen his role decrease in 5 consecutive weeks with carry shares of 58% > 38% > 33% > 30% > 24% > 15%. Last week this resulted in just 4 carries to Hunt’s 17. The Eagles’ run defence has also played well this season, keeping running backs to just 3.68 yards per carry. This is bad news for a Chiefs running game that has already been specialising in 3 yards and a cloud of dust runs for a while now. There was also a report pre-game last week from James Palmer saying that the Chiefs really like where Kareem Hunt is at and they will continue to roll with him as the hot hand.

Pacheco has 24, 18, 18, and 25 combined rushing and rec yards the last 4 weeks with -1 receiving yards in the 3 games prior to last week. Last week he finished with 12 yards on 2 targets but 10 of those yards came on a late play where the Bills were selling out to stop the run and Mahomes did a boot leg, flipping it out to Pacheco in space. He is still only running a route on around 25-30% of plays and gets none of the long down and distance or 2-minute drill snaps(Perine does). The Eagles haven’t been a team to allow a ton of rec yards to running backs either with the 7th-fewest overall.

Since Goedert returned from injury he has been on an absolute tear with games of 7/85, 4/56, 4/47, and 4/55. He is Hurts safety blanket, and even in some extremely low-volume games he’s still looked good. The Chiefs have blitzed at the fifth-highest rate (35.1%), and I expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to continue to bring the heat against Jalen Hurts. He’s struggled to diagnose blitzes at the time, and I expect the Eagles to cook up plenty of short passes to get the ball out quickly. Goedert is highly involved in the short-passing game and benefits the most from that. The Chiefs have allowed the most yards to tight ends this season at 1,191 (66 yards per game).

He has also dominated in the red zone, he surprisingly has the highest red-zone target share (24.4%) of any Eagles receiver. While they will likely be a run-first team in those situations, teams will stack the box and leave 1v1 opportunities for the receivers. I think even in a lower-scoring game, we should still see enough red-zone opportunities to get a couple of passing attempts. Godedert is also one of the few tight ends who has enough YAC ability to score both inside and outside the red zone.

Beyond the fact that Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet, the Cheifs really don’t have much of a choice but to pass regardless of the game script. Kareem Hunt has been serviceable this season, but they get a tough matchup and Andy Reid is smart enough to put the ball in his superstar’s hands. Philly finished the regular season ranked second in PFF run defence while allowing the second-lowest EPA per rush, and the Eagles also allowed the fourth-lowest yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. With tougher conditions on the ground, I’m expecting increased passing volume that I don’t think is being priced in enough.

I get the Eagles’ defence may be scary to bet against on paper, but The Eagles played the third-easiest strength of schedule per PFF. We saw Washington look solid in the passing game last week before they absolutely fell apart, and Matthew Stafford passed for 324 yards in the snow against Philly. In a game with even better conditions and a better quarterback, I expect Mahomes to do exactly what he does best and pass all over the Eagles’ defence. We saw him do it in one Super Bowl, and I think we see him do it again.