Germany have looked the in-form team in the tournament to date, winning both of their fixtures and scoring a total of seven goals. They have looked well balanced and pose multiple scoring threats.

Although the host nation are already through, they need to avoid defeat to claim first place. As such, they must treat this game seriously. Even if Julian Nagelsmann does choose to rotate his team, which is unlikely given the way he has managed the minutes of his players to date, there is terrific strength in depth. Leroy Sane and Niclas Fullkrug are among those who could come in.

Motivation to get the win comes from keeping the momentum of home support behind them, too.

Form of Switzerland has not been particularly strong, with their only competitive wins over the course of the last year coming against Andorra and Hungary.

Switzerland have consistently picked up at least two cards per game in their recent international fixtures. Across eight of their last nine games, they have received at least two cards, with the exception being a 4-0 friendly victory over Estonia.

This is still very much a live fixture for Switzerland, who need to secure at least a draw to seal second place but will be going for a victory to take top spot. Their players will not be backing off in this fixture.

Referee Daniele Orsato is a referee who is prone to getting his cards out. The Italian has averaged 4.6 cards per game across the 29 fixtures he has officiated this season, increasing the chances of the Swiss picking up a couple of cautions. It should be noted that Orsato only gave two cards in his previous Euro 2024 fixture, which was Serbia v England.

Havertz prolifically gives away low-level free kicks with his energetic pressing. These are fouls which are not typically serious but disrupt the opponent. He can commit many of these without receiving a card.

No Germany player has committed more fouls at Euro 2024 than Havertz’s five, yet he is the only player in Nagelsmann’s squad who has given away more than a single free kick, and yet has not been booked.

Under no threat of suspension for the last 16, he can continue to play his usual style in this game without any particular impediment.
Havertz gave away two free kicks against Scotland then three against Hungary, despite being withdrawn around the hour mark in both of those games. Expect a similar pattern to continue in this game.

Havertz is conceding 3.85 fouls per 90, which is the same figure as Robert Andrich in midfield, a team-leading one.

Jamal Musiala has been one of the players of the tournament to date. He turned in an outstanding display against Scotland, scoring in a 5-1 victory, and was again in the goals as Die Mannschaft defeated Hungary 2-0.

Thriving for Germany since Julian Nagelsmann took charge, Musiala has five direct goal contributions, including three strikes and two assists, in his last eight caps. He had previously only had a direct hand in four goals during his first 23 appearances for the national team.

His minutes have been managed in the opening two matches of the tournament and he has no outstanding disciplinary issues, so Nagelsmann is unlikely to be shy about using him extensively in this game if the fixture is locked deep in the game. Prior to this tournament, he was typically playing 80 or more minutes before being replaced. He has still accumulated 144 minutes so far this tournament.

Switzerland’s game plan is heavily focused on getting their quick wide players involved, which means that Dan Ndoye typically has a big role to play in every match.

The Bologna winger is a player who accumulates a high number of fouls, both in terms of those he gives away but also in terms of those he wins. He has nine foul involvements at Euro 2024 to date, which is the highest figure of anyone in Switzerland’s ranks. Next best in this category (Remo Freuler and Ricardo Rodriguez) sit on five.

Ndoye will be going up against Maximilian Mittelstadt, who leads Germany in foul involvements with eight and is their most-fouled player on five.

Mittelstadt is protecting himself from a second booking so may not get as stuck in as in previous matches, but the Stuttgart left back is a foul magnet and is likely to attract such attention from Ndoye, who has given away two free kicks in both matches so far.

Switzerland’s desire to use the wings is clear given that 11 of their 26 shots at Euro 2024 have come from either Ndoye or Vargas.

While Ndoye has been the more prolific player in terms of getting shots away at goal, Vargas has been the more accurate and has hit the target on three occasions already. He has been getting into the better shooting areas, which is highlighted with his 0.17 xG per shot. This means that his shots have been from more dangerous positions.

He has had at least two shots in each of his last six caps. From this total of 14 shots, he has hit the target on eight occasions.

Vargas has had a shot on target in each of his last five competitive international games and has worked the keeper in eight of his last 10, making his price of 1.91 to continue that trend a very attractive one.