I felt it was only right to have a look at Serie A this weekend, given the absolute joke of a performance from the EUROPEAN CHAMPIONS Italy against Northern Ireland midweek. The result means Mancini’s team have to chance their arm in the play-offs if they are to qualify for Qatar 2022 (They had to go through the play-offs to get to Russia 2018, and we saw how that went…)

Anyway with all the talk of Italian football I thought I’d have a look at the Italian top flight, so here’s what I’m running with. Five games across the Serie A for my accumulator which are:

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Atalanta v Spezia

Two teams at complete ends of the spectrum in terms of league position. Atalanta have managed to get their act together as of late (maybe boosted by some dominant displays against Manchester United in the Champions League). A 2-1 away win last time out at Cagliari will give the hosts a nice boost into this, especially against a Spezia side who have been absolutely muck away from home as of late.

Spezia have lost four of their last five on the road, conceding 16 and only scoring four in that period. Probably not the best form when you travel to Bergamo against a side on a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions. The visitors have been leaking goals for fun on the road – averaging three conceded a game – and have the tied worst defensive record in the division (26 conceded). As it stands, it’s looking uncertain whether the goals of Daniele Verde will be enough to keep Spezia in the division. The Italian has three goals in the league this season, making him his side’s top scorer in the league…

Compare this to Colombian Duvan Zapata of Atalanta, and you can really see the gulf in class between the two teams. I’ve seen Zapata a few times for them in the Champions League this season, and he’s absolutely ran amuck against United in both legs of their group games. Seven goals for him this season in the league, and I can see him adding more misery against a Spezia side in freefall away from home.

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Fiorentina v AC Milan

Milan are starting to look like that famous Ancelotti side of the mid-2000’s this season. Granted there may not be a Champions League on the horizon, but their league form finally sees them back in the conversation for the Serie A title after years of the infamously named ‘Milan banter era’. Unbeaten in the league and level on points with top-spot Napoli, the ‘Rossoneri’ are coming off the back of a 1-1 draw in a thrilling Milan derby before the international break.

Stefano Poli’s side have won their last four on the bounce away from home in the league, with this new look 4-2-3-1 formation working wonders with the enigmatic Zlatan Ibrahimovic back from injury to lead the line for Milan. The Swede has two goals and two assists in his last five league games, in a Milan side averaging 2.17 goals away from home.

Fiorentina have had one man to thank for their up and down season, 21-year-old Serbian striker Dusan Vlahovic. Vlahovic has carried on his impressive form from last season, bagging eight goals so far this campaign (twice as many as any Milan player). This sort of goal scoring form has allowed the ‘Viola’ to score in every home game they have played this season. 

The hosts have scored 10 in their last five, and are averaging two at home per game this season. Can’t see them scalping this Milan side, and although the visitors haven’t won their last two in all competitions, I think they’ll find the back of the net like the hosts in this one.

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Bologna v Venezia

Bologna are surprisingly in the hunt for European contention this season, and that’s been largely down to some pretty stellar home form so far this campaign. Venezia are the next to visit the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, in a game that I can only see going one way.

Bologna are a team that seems to gain confidence when playing in front of their home faithful. They’ve only tasted defeat once on home soil in the league this season, and that was against a Milan side who are well and truly flying. They are also over-efficient finishers in terms of scoring goals at home. Despite only boasting an xGF of 1.4 at home, they are averaging 2.17 goals scored on home soil. Goals have been spread throughout the side, with Marko Arnautovic, Musa Barrow and Lorenzo De Silvestri with 12 goals between all of them in the league this season respectively.

Venezia have been a shambles on the road, even with the goals of Marria Aramu and David Okerere being the main catalyst in the hope of them staying up this season. One win on the road and only averaging 0.57 goals per game, it’s not looking good for Paolo Zanetti’s side. Venezia are a side who will put all effort into home form to keep them up this season, so I can only see another win for Bologna in this one come Sunday.

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Salernitana v Sampdoria

Two teams struggling to stay afloat in Serie A here, as newcomers to the division Salernitana welcome a Sampdoria side in absolute free fall. Both are sat in the relegation zone, so I’m expecting cards to be flying at the Stadio Arechi come kick-off.

The hosts have unsurprisingly struggled after promotion from Serie B last season. One win in their last five won’t be enough if they are to defy the odds and live to fight another day in Italy’s top flight. They are the lowest-scoring side in the division, and have been involved in cards galore in every game they play in. Every game Salernitana have played in have resulted in over 3.5 cards, and have the likes of Federico Bonazzoli and Luca Ranieri both sitting on four bookings so far this season.

Sampdoria are one of the most card happy teams in the league this season, averaging at least three bookings per game. Like the hosts, 100% of the games involving Sampdoria have resulted in over 3.5 cards.Morten Thorsby and Bartosz Bereszynski both have an almost impressive 11 yellows between them this season. Defender Nicola Murru has picked up 1.51 cards a game he has played in this season. Considering how little luck both teams have in front of goal, I think both teams won’t want to lose, so I’m saying cards a plenty.

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Hellas Verona v Empoli

10th against 11th in Serie A on Monday night, and I’m off to the Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi as free-scoring Verona entertain an Empoli side running amuck on the road over their last five games.

Verona’s ability to find the back of the net has been one of the standouts in Serie A this season. Igor Tudor’s side have scored more goals than any team outside the top 5, and have been one of the most efficient finishers in the league. Despite only having an xG of just over a goal a game (1.05) –  they are outperforming this hugely – and are averaging 2.67 goals per game on home soil. Four wins on the bounce at home doesn’t hurt either, spearheaded by Giovanni Simeone up front. The son of Atletico manager Diego, Giovanni has nine goals in only 11 league games this season – including all four in a 4-1 demolition of Lazio.

Empoli can’t string a run of results at home to save their lives. Four wins in their last giveaway games in the league has seen Aurelio Andreazzoli’s side sit modestly in mid-table. With only one home win in their last seven, away form has been the key. With xG of 1.4 on the road, it’s clear they create chances everywhere they go. Too close to call maybe in terms of results with destination playing into both teams hands, so I’m backing goals a plenty in this one.

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Back my Serie A bets ⬇️

(Not including Over 3.5 Cards in Salernitana v Sampdoria – odds weren’t available at the time of posting)

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Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on my Top 5 Serie A Bets. Here are the two possible outcomes:

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