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Tottenham v Burnley Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Tottenham v Burnley Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Thursday 4 January, 20242 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Tottenham v Burnley

📅
Kick Off: Friday 5th January at 20:00
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: ITV1

Vincent Kompany's Burnley travel south to save Big Ange's Tottenham for the pick of Friday's FA Cup games. As ever we have a range of FA Cup bet builders and FA Cup accumulator tips. Not only that, but away from these shores we also have a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond.

If you like what you see and want to get involved, check out the various free bet offers and all of the latest bookmaker offers so you can be sure you're getting the best value for money.

Spurs welcome Burnley in the first 2024 endeavour for both sides in an exciting FA Cup clash in North London. The two sides last met in September with the Spurs claiming a very convincing 5-2 victory at Turf Moor but the magic of the cup always brings wonders. 

Spurs closed out 2023 with a big victory over high-flyers Bournemouth and with results around them falling into place, moved within 1 point of fourth-placed Arsenal and six points off the top spot - a generous position considering their injury crisis over the last few weeks. Pape Matar Saar, Yves Bissouma, and Son Heung-Min all bid farewell to their club duties as they depart for their respective international duties, but we’d expect the hosts to remain confident going into this clash. 

Burnley suffered a heart-wrenching defeat to Aston Villa last week, marking their 15th defeat from 20 games in the Premier League this season. This time last year Burnley were perched comfortably at the top of the Championship and running away with the title in style, but there's seemingly lots of work to do if they’re to avoid the newly promoted side curse. Having reached the FA Cup quarter-finals last season, the fans will be optimistic for another deep cup run, no matter the difficulty of the starting leg.

Tottenham v Burnley Cheat Sheet

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⚽ Match stats: Spurs to progress through

Although Spurs will be without some key pieces of their first eleven puzzle, it's difficult to look past their price to win this FA Cup clash considering their squad depth and Burnley's dire struggle to see out games. With 10 wins and a draw against Burnley in their last 11 meetings, Spurs have certainly shown their dominance over the Clarets in recent years, and are boasting some strong form with four wins in five matches. Delivering a 5-2 battering back in September, with a Son Heung-Min hattrick stealing the headlines, Spurs will be feeling confident once again, even with his absence. Albeit only the 3rd round, Spurs have progressed beyond this stage on 16 of their last 17 attempts, with the exception in the 2013/14 season against North London rivals Arsenal. Keeping on the theme of FA Cup progression, Spurs have won five of their seven FA Cup ties against Burnley, their most recent victory in the form of a third-round replay in the 2014-15 season. Burnley enter Friday's cup contest having only won three of their last 15 away games in the FA Cup, another worrying stat considering the Clarets last celebrated success at Tottenham back in January 1983. It feels very difficult to see past a victory here for Spurs, even considering the absences of some key players, with the history and current form indicating a strong upcoming performance from Ange Postecoglou’s men.

Predictions:

⚽ Tottenham to win @ 1.40

🥅 Goal stats: The magic of the cup

Despite Burnley's reputation of being the low-scorers in the Premier League, perhaps deservingly so considering their tally of 20, their recent FA Cup clashes with Premier League sides have produced quite the spectacle. Burnley's past six FA Cup ties against Premier League opposition have produced a whopping total of 28 goals, amounting to a very exciting average of 4.7 goals per game. Unfortunately for the Clarets, this often sees them on the receiving end of the majority of these but they certainly show their danger in front of goal in this competition after reaching the final eight last year. Spurs are also loving the goals at the moment with at least three goals being scored in 10 of their last 11 matches in all competitions. Some very convincing attacking performances just about overshadowed Spurs’ nervy defensive form - 1 clean sheet from their last 10 games and sitting 4th for the highest xGA in the Premier League, only narrowly behind their Friday visitors. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals selections have landed in 75% of Spurs’ Premier League games this season which gives great credibility to these selections. Burnley sees their figures for both of those selections drop to 55% of games, but their history in the FA Cup indicates a different side could be on the loose here and trouble the Spurs backline. Going for goals does look like a good value option considering the seven goals in the last meeting between Spurs and Burnley.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.45

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.57

🎯 Shooting stats: Spurs duo to shine

With the departure of Son Heung-Ming to the Asia Cup, Spurs are without their most prolific player which focuses the limelight onto Richarlison to fill that hole up front. Richarlison has been in decent scoring form as of late, with five goals in as many appearances, and is looking like a true goal threat at last. Richarlison loves peppering his opponents' goal, averaging an impressive 3.82 shots on goal per 90 minutes, the most shots in the Spurs squad. He racked up five shots on goal against Bournemouth on New Year's Eve, two hitting the target and one finding the back of the net which marked his 7th goal across all competitions this season. Richarlison averages 1.37 shots on target per 90 and has shown great consistency in recent weeks in this market, hitting the target at least once in 4 of his last 5, picking up 7 shots on target in that time. Richarlison will know this is a great opportunity to add to his personal accolades with the international duty departures. Dejan Kulusevski has also been a key threat in front of goal for Spurs and could cause more danger on Friday night. The Swede averages 1.84 shots on goal per 90 with 0.76 hitting the target. However, the latter isn't very representative of his recent form as he has found the target in five of his last seven matches, accumulating seven shots on target in that time. Burnley are conceding an average of 5.85 shots on target per 90 with Spurs matching that stat identically with their shot on target so there should be a great opportunity for Kulusevski to test the goalie at least once, especially at such a strong price.

Predictions:

⚽ Richarlison to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.22

⚽ Richarlison to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.10

⚽ Richarlison to have 3+ shots @ 1.36

⚽ Dejan Kulusevski to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.53

⚽ Dejan Kulusevski to have 2+ shots @ 1.40

⛳ Corner stats: Lots of set pieces to come

Both of these sides have been prolific with earning set pieces this season, with Burnley sitting seventh and Spurs in eighth for the most total corners taken in the Premier League. Only three corners separate the totals but the averages of these sides indicate strong value in the corners markets. Firstly, the hosts are averaging 12.10 total corners per match with an impressive 70% of their games this season have seen at least 11 corners taken, this rises up to 85% for 9 corners. Spurs’ total corner average is split fairly evenly but slightly favours the opponents taking the most corners. Spurs’ vulnerability to conceding corners gives value to the total corners markets as Burnley have shown great strength in earning corners this season, averaging 5.50 per match. Their total corner average sits just shy of their Friday hosts’ at 11.10, but similarly seemingly face more corners than they take each game. 80% of Burnley’s games this season have seen at least nine corners, a great partnership with the Spurs stats for the same total. When these teams met at Turf Moor earlier in the season, there were 11 total corners, a total that has mirrored Spurs’ last three games and landed in two of Burnley's last 4. A corner match bet would be tough to select with the stats for each side showing lots of similarities, but with Spurs being at home and likely to dominate most of the possession, we would expect Spurs to edge out Burnley.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 8.5 total corners @ 1.40

⚽ Over 9.5 total corners @ 1.73

⚽ Tottenham corner match bet @ 1.57

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