Peterborough v Luton

Since Grant McCann was restored to the Posh dugout, goals have been on the agenda for them in the Championship. It was this type of swashbuckling football that McCann produced at Peterborough the first time around and so we can feel somewhat reassured that this is perhaps more than just a phase.

7 of Peterborough’s last 8 matches have seen over 2.5 goals. The enjoyable thing about this is that in these matches we aren’t just relying on Posh to be good or their opponents to be clinical, it can be a mixture of both sides. The performance data backs up the bare goals as well. Peterborough’s 3.26xG per 90 in their last four matches is by far the highest xG in the league for their matches.

The other good news for this bet is that Luton are finding the net regularly themselves. They haven’t failed to score in the league in nine matches and they have been good value for their recent goals. Their xG has been over 1xG per 90 for most of the season, though recently they have relied a little bit on set pieces for a decent percentage of their chances.

It isn’t just the history and stats that makes overs a good bet here though. Simply observing the quality of the Posh’s defending of late is real cause for concern. There are individual mistakes but also a lack of organisation and confidence that is feeding those mistakes. Luton have the forwards to be able to capitalise on this and to get odds against for this bet makes it a strong fancy.

Preston v Blackpool

This is a local derby, but without much else to play for other than local pride. Preston failed to score again at the weekend and Blackpool were humbled at home against Forest. I suspect Neil Critchley will want to get back to basics here.

The Ryan Lowe-comotion has slowed to a chug in recent weeks with Preston fans already beginning to question his appointment. As silly as it may seem, we have already seen how quickly a negative atmosphere can envelop North End. It will be important not to lose this derby and so we can expect to see a continued emphasis on denying chances to the opposition. Despite their difficulties, Preston are still producing good defensive numbers, especially in open play where they are only conceding 0.48xG per 90 over recent matches.

Blackpool tend to attack with four and try and keep control of the central area of the pitch with a deep-lying playmaker and ball winner remaining in front of the centre of defence. This approach has been successful as Blackpool have consolidated their Championship position without any scares, but can sometimes mean that they are reliant on some individual brilliance from the likes of Josh Bowler, or a more structured routine to get their goals.

Preston in their usual 3 at the back system should be able to set up to nullify Blackpool’s main threats. Lowe tried to play all three of Evans, Archer, and Riis against Derby on Saturday, it is fair to say that their plans were somewhat scuppered with the early red card to Liam Lindsey but even with 11 men they failed to make many inroads into the Derby defence.

There are a number of good indicators pointing towards a tight, low-margin match. I am happy to recommend a bet on the under 2.5 goal line here covering 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, and 1-1, as well as more dominant 2-0 and 0-2 score lines.

Sheffield United v QPR

It is getting touch and go for both of these playoff chasing sides now. Sheffield United were disappointing in their display against Stoke at the weekend and whilst QPR would’ve potentially expected nothing from hosting Fulham, they rarely looked like getting anything. As this preview is being written there is much speculation that Mark Warburton is very close to losing his job, even if this transpires before the match the tip would remain the same.

In my opinion, Mark Warburton has done an excellent job with QPR, but there is no doubt that their performances have dropped off a cliff. Warburton is probably a victim of his own success and the overperformance of his side earlier in the season so that when the team has struggled to pick up results recently and reverted to the mean, it feels even worse as a supporter. There is little sign of them escaping this collapse here either, it is a difficult spiral to get out of.

Sheffield United have also stumbled when looking certainties for the playoffs. However, most of their difficulties have been away from home. Their home results and performances have remained strong, winning the xG battle at Brammall Lane in 14 out of their 15 home games, the only exception being recently against Nottm Forest.

It would be a total shock if Sheffield United failed to win the xG battle again here in this match and then from that point it is a question of whether that plays out in the scoreline. With Morgan Gibbs-White and Sander Berge being fit and available driving the attacking midfield in support of a good striker in the shape of Billy Sharp or Oli McBurnie I would feel confident that there are enough players who are able to convert the chances well enough to get the result required for their playoff hopes.

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Nottingham Forest v Coventry

Forest displayed potentially their greatest statement yet that they are ready to break into the playoff positions and cement their chances of promotion. Coventry struggled to a point against Blackburn with a 99th minute equalizer, which was probably deserved with a positive first half display in that match.

However, Blackburn were able to demonstrate that Coventry can be dominated when they are faced with a dynamic forward press with threats in different areas of the pitch. Forest certainly carry that kind of threat with Brennan Johnson & Philip Zinckernagel being able to adapt, improvise and float around the dominant physicality of Keinan Davis. Steve Cooper and staff will have watched that second half and that gives them a template of how to play against Coventry that they will easily be able to replicate.

Forest have been fairly dominant at home this season, especially since Cooper took charge. Indeed, their last home match against Stoke was actually the first time that Forest lost the xG battle in a home match for four months. Coventry haven’t been bad away from home but this will be a tall order for them.

After Forest’s 4-1 win at Blackpool they remain at the top of the xPts form table over the last five matches. Coventry are in the top half of the table in that ranking but the Tricky Trees will likely live up to that moniker for Coventry on Wednesday evening.

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