Norrby v Brage

These are two sides on the back of very different recent results with very different hopes and ambitions for the remainder of the Superettan season.

Norrby begin this weekend’s round of fixtures sitting in the bottom-half of the table and they are just two points above the bottom three places in the table. The home team come into this on the back of a 2-1 defeat against fellow strugglers Dalkurd last week. That loss makes it three successive defeats for the hosts and they have won just one of their last six matches. 

That poor run of form has seen them manage to continue to create chances and score goals. They have scored in all but one of those six games but they have conceded ten goals in their last three games

They now face a Brage side that are maintaining a serious and sustained title challenge as they push for promotion to the Allsvenskan. Their most recent top-flight season came in 1993 and they have only played in the top-tier once since 1990. That barren spell has seen them drop into the fourth tier at times, too.

Now, however, under the management of Kleber Saarenpaa, they sit second in the league table, behind runaway league leaders Halmstad.

Since a bit of a wobble in the last month or so, the visitors have recovered and come into this on the back of back-to-back victories. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 win at home to bottom-of-the-table Ostersund last week. They will be very confident of making it three successive wins against struggling opposition.

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Skovde v Osters

Both of these two sides come into this on the back of victories that have maintained their challenge for promotion spots and both will have their sights set on that with 13 games to go.

Skovde’s win came away at Landskrona, as they came out on top by a goal to nil. Osters was a different type of performance and result. The visitors won by three goals to one against an opposition that went down to ten men.

Under the management of French-Swedish boss Tobias Linderoth, the aggressive gegen-pressing 4-2-2-2 style of play that Skovde have played in 2022 has not necessarily produced the attacking efficiency expected. They have scored just 24 goals in 17 games so far this season. That is the lowest amount of any team in the top-half of the table.

Osters, on the other hand, have managed to score 30 in 17. Quite remarkably, they have scored in every single match so far this season. Their goal scoring capabilities will give them a lot of hope of being able to secure promotion back to the Swedish top-flight.

That run of scoring is supported by the underlying data. Their expected goals away from home averages out at 1.56 per game, with that number rising to 1.64 overall. Osters are now unbeaten in their last five matches since an entertaining 3-2 defeat to their upcoming opponents, Skovde.

This one is likely to be an even contest between two sides that have already played out a fun match between the two sides.

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Utsiktens v Trelleborg

It has been a horror run of form for Utsiktens of late. The home team were pushing for the promotion spots for much of this campaign but they have recently badly struggled. They come into this on the back of a 3-1 defeat away to in-form Osters last week, as they went down to ten men. 

The hosts have now suffered four successive defeats and they are now winless in their last five matches since they defeated bottom-of-the-table strugglers Ostersund in early July.

They now face a Trelleborg side that begin this weekend’s round of fixtures a couple of places and a few points above Utsiktens. The visitors’ most recent outing was a 4-0 hammering at home to runaway league leaders Halmstad last week. Trelleborg have been fairly inconsistent throughout the campaign.

The underlying defensive data for both of these teams would indicate that the two sides are among the best in the division at containing and controlling their opposition. Trelleborg’s expected goals against is 1.16 per match and they have conceded 1.58 per game. Utsiktens have conceded 1.47 per game, whilst their expected goals against is 1.24 – both of their expected goals against rates are among the best five in the league.

Given that these are two sides that, defensively, have underperformed what their stats would suggest they are expected to do, this one is likely to be a low-scoring encounter, regardless of the result. However, there is likely to be value in backing Trelleborg, especially given Utsiktens’ terrible run of form of late.

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