UEFA Champions League Group Stage Preview & Predictions
Tuesday 14 September, 20212 min read
Andy Robson
Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.
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The world’s greatest club competition is back this week and I for one am absolutely buzzing for the return of the UEFA Champions League. The fans are back, the groups have been drawn and there are some absolutely cracking fixtures to look forward to over the coming weeks and months. Liverpool and Atletico Madrid have both been drawn in Group B after their historic battle in the last 16 a couple of years ago. Group A contains the modern day super clubs and the battle of the oil money as Man City and PSG will face-off in what is sure to be an amazing spectacle. Other notable encounters are Bayern Munich v Barcelona in Group E and reigning champions Chelsea will have to see off the likes of Juventus in their bid to qualify from Group H. The competition as always is absolutely littered with quality and I just can’t wait for it to get started. To get us all even more excited and clued up I will be doing a group by group overview with football tips and football predictions included on how I feel things will pan out. I hope you find it useful and happy reading!
Group A Predictions
This still remains the one trophy that eludes Pep and his men and they must’ve thought they had it won last season going into the Champions League final against Chelsea. They were heavy favourites in Porto back in May but ultimately didn’t turn up as Kai Havertz took the European Cup to West London for a second time. I am sure they will be there or thereabouts once more this season due to the sheer quality of both their squad and their manager. Grealish was their only major summer signing however and having missed out on Harry Kane they do look a striker short to me currently. Will be interesting to see if Pep uses the January transfer window to bring someone in to make them even stronger come the business end of the season.
PSG have often flattered to deceive in this competition, a little like Manchester City in a sense. Despite the millions upon millions that have been spent they continue to come up short. This year feels a little different though, their summer business was outstanding as they brought in a guy from Barcelona called Lionel Messi. You might have heard of him? It is not just Messi though which has gotten me excited about their prospects. Wijnaldum, Sergio Ramos, Hakimi and Donnarruma have also been brought in and their squad looks incredibly strong this season. They also managed to keep Kylian Mbappe at the club despite intense interest from Real Madrid at the window. The potential front 3 of Neymar, Mbappe and Messi playing together has me drooling and similarly to Man City they should be at the very least reaching the latter stages this season.
Leipzig are a very capable side. They finished second in the Bundesliga last year and had a decent UCL campaign last season where they qualified from the group before being knocked out by Liverpool in the last 16. A summer of change at the club though may harm their chances this season with the highly-rated manager Julian Nagelsmann departing for German champions Bayern Munich this summer. They also lost some massive players as Dayot Upamecano and Marcel Sabitzer followed Nagelsmann to Bayern and Ibrahima Konate sealed his big money move to Liverpool. Jesse Marsch has arrived as the new manager from RB Salzburg and looks a very capable appointment. They have also made an impressive signing in the shape of Andre Silva from Frankfurt who finished last season with 28 Bundesliga goals to his name. In a group with PSG & Man City, realistically the best they can hope for is a third placed finish and a drop down into the Europa League which is what I predict will happen for Leipzig this season.
Club Brugge walked to the Belgian title last season eventually finishing 16 points clear of their nearest rivals Antwerp in the league. They have been the dominant team in Belgium for a couple of years now but the UCL is a completely different level and I struggle to see how they don’t finish bottom of an extremely difficult Group A. They sold some important players over the summer with Odilon Kossounou joining Bayer Leverkusen and Emmanuel Dennis moving on to Watford. They will be battling with Leipzig for 3rd I am sure but the German side are clearly superior and I expect the Belgians to finish fairly comfortably at the bottom of the group.
Group B Predictions
Liverpool have been drawn in a tough looking Group B as they face trips to Atletico Madrid, Porto and AC Milan in the group stages of this season’s Champions League. After a couple of years where they have performed below expectations in Europe, Liverpool fans will be hoping for a return to the kind of continental form which saw them reach consecutive finals in 2018 and 2019, the latter of which saw Tottenham Hotspur beaten in Madrid to secure the club’s sixth European Cup. The absence of quality central defenders was most certainly the downfall for Liverpool last year who in the quarter-final against Real Madrid had to cope with Ozan Kabak and Nat Phillips at the back which at this level just isn’t up to scratch. The return to fitness of VVD, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez alongside the signing of Ibrahima Konate means they certainly won’t be short of defenders again this season. Expect big things from Liverpool in Europe who have started the Premier League strongly and I fancy them to come out on top of Group B
Last season's Spanish champions Atletico are reunited with Liverpool who they famously knocked out a couple of years ago at Anfield. Diego Simeone continues to work wonders at the traditionally smaller club in Madrid and although his style of football isn’t always the most pleasing on the eye, the results cannot be questioned. Been a productive transfer window too in Madrid as they have bolstered their squad with the much-coveted Rodrigo de Paul, a South American champion, and Matheus Cunha, an Olympic champion. The most high-profile incoming has to be the return of Antoine Griezmann as Diego Simeone is reunited with a player who he had firing before and who also arrives with something to show his doubters after a frustrating time at Barcelona. I am sure they will compete with Liverpool to top the group and I expect Group B to be very tight in general with four quality teams fairly evenly matched.
FC Porto had a disappointing campaign by their own high standards last term, finishing runners-up behind Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga and winning only one trophy: the Portuguese Super Cup. They tend to overachieve in Europe as last season's quarter final appearance can justify as they knocked out Juventus along the way. They also of course won the Champions League back in 2004 and as a club in general never seem to be overawed in this competition. With that in mind, I fancy them to slightly controversially finish in third ahead of AC Milan and be the team from Group B to drop down into the Europa League.
Some of you might be surprised to see me rank AC Milan 4th but for me it just shows the quality and depth of the group. Remember, this is the first time Milan have qualified for Europe’s premier club competition since the 2013-14 season which shows the downfall of this once giant European club. Stefano Piolo certainly seems to have turned things around at the San Siro with an unexpected title charge that tailed off in the spring as they eventually finished second in Serie A. There are still some big, experienced names within the squad to look out for including Olivier Giroud who joined from Chelsea and of course King Zlatan. The squad looks decent and they could without doubt spring a few surprises in this group but realistically I expect them to compete with Porto for third place in a bid to make it to the Europa League.
Group C Predictions
Group C arguably looks the weakest of all the Champions League groups this season and has a bit of a Europa League feel to it. Dortmund will be coming up against Portuguese champions Sporting CP, Dutch champions Ajax and Turkish champions Besiktas JK and I expect them to come out on top. Dortmund did well in last season's competition, reaching the quarters before being knocked out by eventual finalists Man City. They gave as good as they got against City too and I think impressed us all with their display against the English champions. As is always the way with Dortmund, the focus is on youth and development which is what makes them such a likeable club. I expect the likes of Haaland, Jude Bellingham, Gio Reyna and new signing Donyell Malen to absolutely tear it up once more this season. They did of course lose Jadon Sancho to Man United but I feel he has been adequately replaced and I expect big things from Dortmund this season.
Really was a toss-up for me between Ajax and Sporting as to who would finish 2nd but I feel the European experience that Ajax have in this competition should see them through. Manager Erik Ten Hag is highly thought of and was heavily linked with Dortmund following the sacking of Lucien Favre last season. Ten Hag is still at Ajax and has developed a reputation for playing fluid, attack minded football. The squad is still very young and hungry with sprinkles of experience throughout, vital in helping the younger players develop. They are an extremely well-run club from the bottom up and continuously produce world class talent on a yearly basis. The fans being back is huge for Ajax too with the Johan Cruyff Arena an absolute cauldron of noise on match-day. Expect the Dutch giants to sneak 2nd ahead of Sporting but it will be a close call.
Sporting are back in the UEFA Champions League for the first time in 4 years following an unexpected title win last season. 19 years since their last Portuguese title, things are looking rosy in the Portuguese capital and they look to be in great shape going into this year's competition. The appointment of exciting young coach Ruben Amorim who joined from Braga back in March of last year appears to be the turning point and the sleeping giants have awoken once more. Business looks reasonable with the capture of Pablo Sarabia from PSG and Manuel Ugarte and Ricardo Esgaio who were stand out performers in Portugal last season. They only really lost one key player in the shape of Nuno Mendes with the exciting youngster joining PSG on loan with an option to buy. Sporting have the potential to be a dark horse in this group but I feel the experience that Ajax and Dortmund have in this competition should see them through.
Led by club legend Sergen Yalcin, Besiktas are back in the big time for the first time in 4 years having won the SuperLig last season. Have been some high-profile incomings into the club over the summer too and the squad on paper at least looks quite impressive. Miralem Pjanic from Barcelona and Michy Batshuayi from Chelsea are probably the most high-profile captures and should at least help Besiktas compete in a group they potentially could do well in. If they make the Vodafone Park a fortress with the famous Istanbul atmosphere there is no reason why they can’t pick up a few wins and sneak through as runners-up if things go well. Realistically though I expect them to compete for a Europa League spot and ultimately will most likely finish bottom of Group C.
Group D Predictions
Interesting summer at Real following the departure of Zinedine Zidane as manager and the reappointment of Carlo Ancelotti. Difficult to predict how deep they will go in this season's competition with an ageing squad and the spine of the side is in need of renewal over the coming years. Modric, Kroos, Benzema, Bale, Marcelo and Hazard are now well into their 30’s and Carlo has the difficult task of rebuilding the squad. The signing of the highly-rated 18 year old Eduardo Camavinga is a start but there is still plenty more to do. They pursued Kylian Mbappe intensely all summer and it does seem likely they will get their man either in January or next summer with the Frenchmen so keen to move to the Spanish capital. Both Varane and Sergio Ramos have left with just Alaba coming in to replace them so they certainly look a little short in the grand scheme of things and realistically I don’t see them competing to win the competition this season. They have a relatively straightforward group on paper however and I expect them to have the quality to top the pile.
Fantastic season for Inter domestically last year as they romped home to the Serie A title finishing 12 points clear of their nearest rival AC Milan in second. Antonio Conte put together a fantastic side which was full of goals, experience and quality which has unfortunately been dismantled following a problematic summer. Conte has left stating that the club wasn’t matching his ambitions which based on this summer's transfer business is a pretty fair statement. Financial problems exist at the club and the huge sales of both Romelu Lukaku (£103.5m) and Achraf Hakimi (£54m) show the club aren’t capable of competing with the big boys at the top of European football. The squad still has plenty of quality, no doubt with the likes of Lautaro Martinez, Nicolo Barella, Milan Skriniar and Marcelo Brozovic remaining at the club. They should still be far superior to both Shakhtar Donetsk and Sheriff Tiraspol in the group and I expect them to finish as comfortable runners-up to Real Madrid.
Shakhtar it has to be said have done really well to make it to the group stages. They knocked out both Genk and Monaco in the playoffs with the 3-2 aggregate win over a very capable Monaco side particularly impressive. They finished as runners up in the Ukrainian league last season They tend to do fairly well in Europe with many teams dreading the lengthy trips to Ukraine which especially in winter time can get extremely cold. Home advantage is therefore very big for them and they always tend to pull off a few shock results like their 2-0 home win over Real Madrid last season. They could compete for a top 2 place but ultimately predict they will finish 3rd and head down to the Europa League.
No surprises as to who I have tipped to come bottom of Group D with the reigning Moldovan champions making it to the Champions League group stages for the first time in their history. They had a lengthy journey to the group stages after eliminating Teuta, Alashkert, Red Star and Dinamo Zagreb along the way and all credit to them. They are certainly flying the flag for Moldovan football but against the likes of Madrid and Inter away from home I wouldn’t be surprised to see them receive a hammering or two. Easy prediction for Tiraspol then to finish bottom of Group D.
Group E Predictions
A slightly disappointing European campaign from Bayern Munich last season as they were knocked out in the quarter-finals by PSG. Big changes at Bayern over the summer as Hansi Flick left to take the Germany job and long-serving servants David Alaba and Jerome Boateng also departed for pastures new. Julian Nagelsmann has joined from Leipzig and I think it will turn out to be an inspired appointment and I am a big fan of the quirky dressed young German. He brought some of his favourites from old club Leipzig including Upamecano and Sabitzer who were the most high-profile captures this summer. They lost a club legend in the shape of David Alaba who left on a free transfer to Real Madrid which will obviously be a big loss. The squad looks strong however with a nice mix of experience and youth and as always I would expect them to go deep in competition and fairly comfortably win Group E.
Pretty disastrous summer at Barcelona really which will of course be dominated by the sad departure of Lionel Messi who joined PSG on a free transfer. The club were desperate for him to stay and the player himself wanted to stay but La Liga wouldn’t allow Barca to sanction the move due to financial fair play regulations. Now, Messi is quite simply irreplaceable and in reality he has been carrying a pretty poor Barca team for at least 3 years now and his departure is a disaster. 672 goals and 305 assists in 778 apps is just a joke and I just can’t see how Barca threaten to win the competition this season. Depay is a reasonable capture on a free from Lyon but other than that I don’t like their business with an injury-prone Sergio Aguero the only other real high-profile capture. Alongside Messi they allowed Griezmann to leave and while his spell at the Camp Nou wasn’t great I would suggest it only makes the squad weaker. You have to worry for them this season and although I expect them to qualify from a fairly weak group E, I could easily see them being eliminated in the last 16 should they be handed a tough draw.
By their high standards Benfica had a pretty disastrous campaign last season and will be hoping for better this time around. They finished third in the league, the first time they had not been one of the first two clubs since 2009 and didn’t even make it to the Champions League having been eliminated by PAOK in the qualifier. They fared far better this time around having beaten Spartak Moscow 4-0 on aggregate in the qualifier and then more recently beating PSV Eindhoven 2-1 in the playoff round. The squad arguably looks weaker than it did last season following the departures of Pedrinho and Luca Waldschmidt and realistically don’t really see them competing for a top 2 finish in the group. Third is the most likely outcome and a place in the Europa League where they can compete and potentially reach the latter stages as they have done in previous seasons.
Dynamo ended the recent Shakhtar dominance in Ukrainian football last season to win their first domestic title since 2016. They were actually in the same group as Barca last year but lost both games to the Spanish giants but did manage to finish 3rd in their group and make it into the Europa League. Hard to not see them come 4th in a tough group alongside two European giants and another very capable side in Benfica. I can’t pretend to profess and say I know a lot about their squad but they have some highly-rated Ukrainian players including Vitaliy Mykolenko and Viktor Tsygankov amongst others. However it is hard to see them come anywhere other than 4th in a tough group E.
Group F Predictions
No doubt that the business done by United this summer has impressed me and it is now time for Ole to deliver and show he deserves to be manager of such a prestigious football club. £100m+ spent on 3 exceptional players and the addition of Cristiano Ronaldo in the closing days of the window really takes them to another level in my opinion. The squad has depth, quality and natural winners throughout and for me there is no reason why they shouldn’t go deep in this season's Champions League. Despite being 36 Ronny still scores for fun and notched 29 Serie A goals last season which was 5 more than Lukaku who has just joined Chelsea for £100m+. He is also probably the biggest competitor and winner of any player in the professional game which is sure to spur his teammates on and take them to the next level. Expecting big things from United and there is no reason why they shouldn’t be competing for the trophy this season.
United will probably have hated the fact that they would have to face Villarreal again so soon after what happened back in May. They rather embarrassingly lost on penalties in the Europa League final despite being heavy favourites and Villarreal will be hoping to pull off another upset in the group stages. Emery despite his critics wins trophies and the Europa League win last season was the 4th he has won which is really quite impressive. They have strengthened somewhat over the summer as they brought Foyth back to the club permanently and the £21m capture of Arnaut Danjuma from Bournemouth is their most notable signing. They are renowned for causing upsets and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them get an unexpected victory or two along the way. I don’t think they will challenge United for top spot in honesty and will have a tough battle with Atalanta for second.
A brilliant team to watch who won’t change their style for anybody which at times can cost them. At Champions League level you simply cannot afford to not adjust your tactics/style to counter your opposition and Gasperini just seems unwilling to do that. As a result they are prone to a few thumpings in this compensation as the 5-0 home loss to Liverpool last season can signify. Gasperini has acknowledged his side have a ‘very complicated group’ and it will be a real battle between them and Villarreal for who finishes second in my opinion.
Young Boys are here after three rounds of qualifying and thoroughly deserve their place in this season's group stage. They are totally dominant in Swiss football just now having won the Super League four seasons in succession but coming to the Champions League is a completely different level. They are managed by former Huddersfield boss David Wagner who is looking to resurrect his career once more following a poor spell at German club Schalke who were relegated from the Bundesliga last season. Their budget is one of the smallest in the competition with their major summer signing costing £2.25m which is peanuts when you compare to the likes of Man United who spent £100m+ and unsurprisingly I expect them to finish comfortably bottom of Group F.
Group G Predictions
Alongside Group C, on paper at least this is most definitely the weakest looking group in the competition. All 4 teams will fancy themselves to qualify and it was a very difficult one to assess. In the end I went with Sevilla to finish top largely due to their experience in the elite competition with them regulars in the Champions League, season in, season out. Since Lopetegui took over in summer 2019, teaming up with Sevilla's guru-like Director of Football Monchi, the club have really come on leaps and bounds. He has made them extremely hard to play against and at times last season there was talk they could even snatch a La Liga title for the first time in 76 years. In the end they predictably fell away, finishing 4th and 9 points off eventual winners Atletico Madrid but I think progress is being made at the club. Keeping hold of highly-rated defender Jules Kounde from the grapples of Chelsea was a statement of content and I would tip them to just about finish top of Group G here.
The dominance of RB Salzburg in Austria knows no bounds. The 15 time champions head into the UCL group stages having won every single game so far in the Bundesliga (7 from 7) and look even at this early stage to have the title already wrapped up. This is their third year running in the competition and they are becoming an established name around Europe now. There were big changes at the club this summer with the departure of highly-rated manager Jesse Marsch as he joined RB Leipzig. The big money departures of Patson Daka and Enock Mwepu to England were sure to have hurt them too. However, Salzburg has a fantastic scouting system and always seems to bring through fantastic talent on a consistent basis. Karim Adeyemi is the latest starlet to come through the ranks and at just 19 looks an exceptional talent. He has 7 goals in his 10 appearances so far this season and I am excited to see him in action. Will be a tight group but Salzburg are experienced at this level now and I fancy them to just about qualify for the next round.
Wolfsburg finished fourth in the Bundesliga last season and are currently top of the German league, having made a perfect start to the new campaign (P4 W4) under new manager Mark van Bommel. The real task for Wolfsburg will be trying to juggle domestic and European football with a relatively small squad. They are only a few injuries away from a pretty disastrous scenario and as we approach the winter period where games come thick and fast, I think it could hurt them. I do think they will certainly push for qualification but I think fatigue/injuries could hinder them in the end and they will have to settle for 3rd place and a place in the Europa League.
Now some of you may look at this and think, well aren’t Lille French champions? Yes, they are but they look nothing like the team which surprisingly won Ligue 1 last year. The main cogs to their success have all left and they look a shadow of their former selves. They have lost players such as Mike Maignan, Boubakary Soumare and Luiz Araujo, but in the current financial climate, it's perhaps surprising that more of their key players were not poached. Most significant of all however was the departure of highly-rated coach Christophe Galtier who left for Nice which seems to have really rocked the club. They have started their title defence poorly and sit 10th with just one win from their 5 league games played. Unfortunately I think they will really struggle in Europe too and bottom of Group G seems the most likely scenario for the French champions.
Group H Predictions
The reigning champions have been pitted in Group H and I am expecting big things from Tuchel and his side once more this season. The capture of Lukaku has made them a different beast and they have started the league season on fire. They are far more capable this season of winning the Champions League than they were last and I really think they will take some beating. Pitted in a group alongside Juventus, Zenit and Malmö, they are clearly the standout team in my opinion and should win the group fairly comfortably.
Fairly easy to select the runners-up in this group too with two fairly clear standout sides. Italian giants Juventus should have little issue in qualifying with the other sides in the group much more suited to the Europa League. Juve will be boosted by the return of legendary manager Massimiliano Allegri who previously enjoyed an incredibly successful spell with the Biaconeri. Andrea Pirlo was sacked following a very disappointing campaign where they only managed to finish 4th in Serie A which is way below-par for a club of that stature. The departure of a world class goalscorer in Cristiano Ronaldo is sure to have hurt them too which is why I think ultimately they will finish runners-up to Chelsea in Group H.
Russian champions Zenit should be capable of comfortably finishing in 3rd and actually have a high quality squad on paper. They strolled to the league title last season, finishing 8 points clear and when playing at home have the ability to pull off a shock result or two. They have some quality forward players at the club including former Barca winger Malcom, highly-rated Iraniain striker Sardar Azmoun and legendary Russian striker Artem Dyzuba. They will cause some problems but do traditionally struggle in Europe as last season's results can illustrate. They managed just 1 point from their 6 group games last season and looked completely out of their depth. They look more settled and ready this time around and I expect them to finish in 3rd ahead of Malmö.
Swedish champions Malmo have already put in a fantastic effort in reaching the Group Stages of the Champions League, battling their way through four qualifying rounds, knocking out clubs such Rangers and Bulgarian champions Ludogorets to make it here. They almost always dominate in Sweden having won 5 of the last 8 Allsvenskan titles including winning the league last year but tend to come unstuck in Europe. Their previous two appearances in the Champions League came back in 2014 & 2015 where they finished bottom on both occasions losing 5 of their 6 group games. In all honesty I am expecting something similar here and fully expect them to finish bottom of a tricky Group H.
Champions League Group Stage Bets
As you can see from group overviews I have tipped all four English teams to win their groups. The finances and the power of the English clubs is such that now only PSG can really compete with them in spending power. Their squads are outrageous, filled with depth & quality and I expect all four to go deep in this seasons Champions League. At odds of over 9/1 I feel it looks like a belting price and will be good fun to cover throughout the duration of the group stages.
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Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United & Chelsea each to Win their respective Groups @ 10.25 with Paddy Power
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