The confetti has only just been cleared, but already Real Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt have another chance to win a European trophy, with the UEFA Super Cup taking place on Wednesday night between the Champions League and Europa League winners. It should be a spectacle at the Olympic Stadium in Helsinki and there’s some money to be made, with these five Bet Builder picks for the game.
Logically, Real Madrid are the heavy favourites, priced at 1.4 to win in 90 minutes, especially since they have a fully fit squad and are expected to name a very strong line-up. The only concern with the Spanish side is if they are a little too rusty, since this is their first competitive game of the season and their last pre-season game was even a whole 10 days ago.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have played more recently, although they might wish they hadn’t. Oliver Glasner’s side have already played two official games, earning a 4-0 victory over second-tier Magdeburg in the DFB-Pokal but then being thrashed 6-1 at home by Bayern Munich on the opening weekend of the Bundesliga season.
That’s how the teams arrive in Finland. Now, let’s look deeper through the stats and the nuances to find where the value might lie for this year’s UEFA Super Cup.
Real Madrid v Eintracht Frankfurt Bet Builder Tips
Under 3.5 Cards
It’s an English referee in the middle, as Michael Oliver will be taking charge of a Real Madrid game for the first time since Gianluigi Buffon chased him out of the Bernabéu after a controversial late penalty in the knockout stages of the Champions League in 2016. In his only previous game refereeing Eintracht, the last 16 win over Real Betis, no player from the Bundesliga side was shown a card.
He was just over this bet with 3.6 cards per game on average last season but got off to a slow start by showing only one yellow card in his season debut on Sunday as Manchester City beat West Ham. That slow start is a tendency, as Oliver has not shown more than 3.5 cards in one of his first two matches of a new season since 2018.
In cup finals refereed in his senior career, Oliver has registered an average of 3.4 cards per game, though that does include a tie which included 10 cards in 120 minutes, with his other four finals to date racking up just 1.8 cards per game and none of them surpassing 3.5 per game. He is very much a man who likes to keep his cards in his pocket on the big occasion and allow the game to flow as much as possible.
All of that, combined with Premier League referees’ tendency to be more reluctant to show cards of any colour, suggest that Oliver may not be flashing yellow or red too often in Helsinki and odds of 1.67 for under 3.5 cards reflect good value.
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Prediction: Under 3.5 Cards
Karim Benzema Anytime Goalscorer
With two goals in as many games, Karim Benzema went through the 2022/23 pre-season campaign just as he ended the 2021/22 season. Having averaged a goal every 94 minutes last campaign, he is once again the man to lead the line for Real Madrid.
After conceding six against Bayern Munich, Eintracht’s defence will be tested to the limit again against the favourite to win the Ballon d’Or. Benzema’s record against German teams is impressive too, with 14 goals in 26 games. While he has yet to play against Eintracht, he has scored against all but one German opponent faced to date.
At odds of 1.73 for Benzema to score anytime, he will be Real Madrid’s most potent goal threat beyond any shadow of a doubt and could be the man to score the goal that decides the UEFA Super Cup.
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Prediction: Karim Benzema to Score Anytime
Under 4.5 Frankfurt Corners
Last season, Filip Kostic averaged 4.72 corner kicks in their Europa League campaign. With 7.56 crosses averaged per game in the competition last season, the Serbian was a key player in their attacking output. But Eintracht Frankfurt yesterday confirmed that they will be without Kostic vs Real Madrid, as he finalises a move to Juventus.
Much of Eintracht’s attacking play came down the left-flank and without his presence, SGE are unlikely to pose as much threat in the wide areas, and with that comes a smaller chance of winning corners from crosses attempted in the wide areas. Against Bayern Munich on the opening day in the Bundesliga, Eintracht managed a measly five crosses in the entire game, and face equally as tough opposition in Real Madrid so corners should be few & far between for the German side.
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Prediction: Under 4.5 Frankfurt Corners
Rafael Borre to have 1+ Shots on Target
With 12 goals in his maiden campaign for Eintracht Frankfurt last season, Rafael Borre faces one of his toughest opponents yet. Against Real Madrid, Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt are unlikely to see much of the ball but averaging 1.93 shots per 90 minutes last season, expect Borre to at least test Thibaut Courtois in goal.
The Colombian is also known for a long shot, as Barcelona found out, and if Mario Götze and Jesper Lindstrøm create chances on the break, expect Borre to get an opportunity or to be able to fashion out a chance out of nothing for himself with his bullish approach. He is a player that thrives on the counter and with Real likely to dominate the match, this is a game that could really play to his strengths.
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Prediction: Rafael Borre to have 1+ Shots on Target
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Predicted Line-ups
Real Madrid Predicted XI (4-3-3) : Courtois; Carvajal, Militão, Alaba, Mendy; Modrić, Casemiro, Kroos; Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius.
Eintracht Frankfurt Predicted XI (3-4-2-1) : Trapp; Touré, Tuta, N’Dicka; Knauff, Sow, Rode, Lenz; Kamada, Götze; Borré.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
How to watch Real Madrid v Eintracht Frankfurt in the UEFA Super Cup
📅 When is Real Madrid v Eintracht Frankfurt? / Wednesday, 10th August 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is Real Madrid v Eintracht Frankfurt? / Olympiastadion (Helsinki)
📺 What TV channel is Real Madrid v Eintracht Frankfurt on? / BT Sport 1
🟨 …And who is the referee for Real Madrid v Eintracht Frankfurt? / M. Oliver 🏴
