The main event of UFC 304 sees reigning welterweight champion Leon Edwards defend his belt for the second time on UK soil, this time from the Co-op Arena in Manchester. His opponent? The impressive but much-maligned Belal Muhammad, who is finally getting his long-overdue title shot. This will be the second time these two have locked horns in the octagon after their 2021 clash in Las Vegas was ruled a no-contest following an eye-poke from Edwards at the start of the second round. The odds for Muhammad to win the belt on the nose seem rather reasonable at 2.75, however, it would but silly to back against Edwards given his recent performances since his stunning upset win over Karamu Usman to win the belt back in 2022. Both fighters are riding impressive unbeaten streaks which should be mentioned. Edwards (13) and Muhammad (10) have strung together some fantastic wins during this run, however, the trend of the judges' scorecards rearing their head are apparent. Edwards has only finished three of his 13 opponents on this run, while Muhammad has only finished two of his last ten wins. Expect this one to run into the early hours in Manchester. Yes, Muhammad has ground out impressive wins over the likes of Gilbert Burns, Stephen Thompson, and a very surprising knockout win over the impressive up-and-comer Sean Brady, but pressure makes diamonds and Leon Edwards has shown he can handle the pressure in front of the UK crowd when defending his belt. Odds of evens for Edwards to take this on the judges' scorecards seem pretty generous considering he has won his last three against debatably better wrestlers than Belal Muhammad.

Another UK fighter defending an (interim) belt on home soil, and another rematch between two fighters who saw their last contest end prematurely. Arguably the number one heavyweight on the planet Tom Aspinall takes on a gritty Curtis Blaydes in the co-main of UFC 304. Blaydes handed Aspinall his only UFC loss back in 2022 after just 15 seconds of the fight. The caveat? It was a result of Aspinall sustaining a graphic freak knee injury rendering him unable to continue. It’s somewhat farcical that this bout is not for the undisputed heavyweight championship, with UFC President Dana White preferring to keep the belt on an inactive Jon Jones rather than promoting a more active, younger, and some would say likable fighter in Tom Aspinall. The St. Helens native has long been tipped for greatness at the top of the heavyweight rankings, and barring that freak injury against Blaydes in their first bout, he has proven those predictions to be correct. All of his seven UFC wins have come by finish, with all but one coming in the first round. Blaydes is no joke, and his persistence to stay in the mix at the top of the heavyweight rankings for so long is to be commended, but it’s unlikely we see any scenario where Aspinall doesn’t come out on top. Odds of 1.57 for Aspinall to win by KO/TKO are slightly short despite his record, so we’re siding with covering all bases by backing him to win by KO/TKO or Points at odds of 1.44. Blaydes is a specialist at making fights ugly and has proven he can hang with the heavyweight elite. However, Aspinall is better in almost every facet of MMA, and backing double chance at these odds seems a wise decision.

Paddy ‘The Baddy’ takes another step up in competition, and as always, his performance will be under the microscope of fans watching. This match-up against the ranked and experienced Bobby ‘King’ Green proves to be an interesting one. Green is one of the most experienced fighters in the lightweight division at the time of writing, having been with the UFC since 2013, and is having a bit of a career resurgence having won three of his last four. We’re taking Pimblett to take this one on the nose at odds of evens, which seems a generous price when you consider Green hasn’t looked exactly unbeatable in his recent run. Green, who turns 38 in September, turned a lot of heads with his first-round KO win over Grant Dawson, and while wins over aging and over-the-hill fighters in Tony Ferguson and Jim Miller were expected, his KO loss to Jailin Turner has shown that his style of keeping his hands so low has its drawbacks (not helped by a disgraceful late stoppage by referee Kerry Hatley). Doubters will point to Paddy Pimblett’s win over Jared Gordon, which let’s face it, was a straight-up robbery that even Pimblett has struggled to justify. He was out-grappled in that bout and the fact he kept his undefeated UFC record intact is a mystery, but he shouldn’t have any worries about Green taking him to the ground - he’ll want to stand and bang. The Baddy has proven he has a stern chin, just look at his debut against Luigi Vendramini for proof of that. Expect the UFC’s resident Scouser to keep the fight at a distance and shoot when needed to grind out yet another win.

We’re backing yet another English fighter to get back in the win column at UFC 304, as Arnold Allen takes on Georgian kickboxer Giga Chikadze. Despite riding a two-fight losing streak, it’s important to note that these two losses for Allen were against Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway, need I say more? Both fights were decision losses in which ‘Almighty’ made a solid account of himself against two of the elite fighters in the division. Chikadtze himself was on an impressive run before his decision loss to Calvin Kattar back in January 2022. Before that, he was riding a seven-fight win streak which included three finishes in a row. Allen to take this on the nose seems the smart choice. His CV far outweighs that of his Georgian counterpart, with wins against the likes of the aforementioned Kattar and a stunning TKO win over fan favorite Dan Hooker. Expect this fight to go to the ground given Allen’s perchance to win via grinding out victories. Six of his nine UFC wins have come via the judges' scorecards and against an accomplished striker in Chikadtze, I expect this run to continue. Allen to by win by Points seems decent value at 1.91, but we’ll take the Ipswich-native to take this fight on the nose to cover ourselves at a solid price of 1.44.