This is one of those rather common cases in which many pundits and fans think there will be a rinse and repeat of their first bout back in UFC 306. Merab Dvalishvili is very well known for his ability to not only go for a dozen or so takedowns at minimum every fight, but also to primarily focus on grinding his opponent down with high pace wrestling, he genuinely weaponises his cardio exceptionally well and that much was evident when he fought the “Dark Horse” of the division in Umar Nurmagomedov, in which he exceeded expectations by outworking him in traditional Merab fashion, unrelenting forward pressure, erratic strikes leading to a single leg takedown or a knee tap (his preferred takedown is that single leg, in which he can then chain for a body lock takedown or switch to a double leg). 

Now, there is a lot of discussion surrounding O’Malley’s chances here, and I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that O’Malley has a fairly decent chance to get a knockout, or at least land his punches to a devastating effect, as was evident in that fifth round of their first bout in which O’Malley started to land some crisp shots on Merab. However, that fight still ultimately led to a decision win by Merab because all Merab had to do was keep moving and keep evading, knowing that he won a large chunk of that fight and secured the belt for himself. 

This is why I am a firm believer that this fight will go the distance, the odds may not seem pleasing, however when it comes to the reliability of both fighters taking this particular fight to the distance, I do think that we will see a scorecard readout after 5 gruelling rounds of high pace wrestling, counter wrestling, and perhaps a few moments of tense striking exchanges. 

The expectations for Kayla Harrison to finish Julianna Pena here are reasonably high, and that much is evidenced by both the number of people falling for that narrative and because people generally think that Pena is going to melt like butter within a round or two. I typically would agree with that thought, however, I do think that Pena has the grappling and the “survivability” to last until the championship rounds. Now, before I talk about Harrison and the obvious advantages she has, let me back up the reasons why I think that Pena could survive on the ground. 

First, she trains alongside some really, really good wrestlers and grapplers such as Michael Chiesa, Brady Hiestand and Austin Arnett, and whilst she may not be able to easily absorb or replicate their level of grappling, I do think that it would be absolutely silly if she didn’t learn from those fighters in advancing her takedown defence and thus be very prepared for what may be the most important fight of her career. Now, I am not saying that she will stuff or defend all of the takedowns coming her way, because Kayla Harrison is a physical specimen with an elite level of wrestling and Judo to back her up, but what I am saying is that she can fight hard enough in the first two rounds, perhaps even three, to stifle the chance of Harrison finding a finish, whether that’s through a submission or ground and pound. 

To cap this all off, this is a fight where the odds are quite wide so I am genuinely surprised and also pleased to see such a somewhat risky but not quite prop of over 3.5 rounds to be sitting neatly at roughly 2.10, historically, whilst Harrison has found finishes in her past fights on PFL, she has also struggled to finish people like Aspen Ladd (who I don’t rate particularly high), so I am quite happy with those odds there, and I genuinely look forward to seeing how Pena holds up against this juggernaut that’s looking to take her belt and finally make Women’s Bantamweight interesting to watch!

In a sport in which heavyweights dominate the highlight reel market for their monstrous knockouts, Spivac is someone who somewhat broke the mould in the modern era of the UFC when he first defeated Tai Tuivasa at UFC 243… that was 6 years ago! Ever since then, we have seen Spivac do what he does best, find the takedown and just be a bear of a heavyweight, maintaining control over his opponents and landing that thunderous ground and pound. Now, Spivac has dealt with some serious losses in his career which no doubt has set him back a few pivotal steps in his career, as he lost to Tom Aspinall, Ciryl Gane and the highly talented grappler Jailton Almeida, but I have always been a firm believer in that preparing for those levels of fights, for highly talented individuals at the top of their game, is just about as important as winning those fights because whilst a loss on the record is a loss on the record, the weeks and months of training for those fights sticks to a fighter, they learn and keep that knowledge. 

What I expect from Spivac is no different from what, well, we all probably expect Spivac to do, and that’s to look for the takedowns early and neutralise the striking threat of Cortes-Acosta, because whilst Cortes-Acosta is scary with his striking speed and knockout power, he is still a heavyweight who has yet to face a wrestler, as being a wrestler in this division is about as rare as finding a decent priced cup of coffee in my City of Melbourne! (It’s notoriously expensive here).

So, I got Spivac winning this one; the odds are quite good here, considering that this entire card is full of heavy favourites and underdogs. I expect him to wrestle and use what has previously made him successful against this level of competition. 

This is a fairly interesting fight that feels like it flew under quite a lot of people’s radar, and that’s fine considering the entire card is stacked full of finishers and big names. Mederos is the perfect encapsulation of what a modern era MMA fighter should look like, he has efficient boxing in that he doesn’t throw too recklessly and still remains within himself to stay balanced and able to counter and move, and his takedown defence or at least wrestling instinct is prevalent enough to mitigate takedowns (which is going to be massively important in this fight) as well as force a change of pace through his own wrestling, where he has shown an excellent ability to control a fighter against the cage, and whilst that’s not “wrestling” in the traditional sense of getting takedowns or slamming the opponent with gusto, it is still controlling one's opponent and that is what matters when a striker incorporates wrestling as there are more opportunities to break off the hold to strike than it is on the ground where a body triangle or a tricky guard fighter may shut down the escape route of a striker on top. 

Choinski is coming in as a late replacement after preparing for a fight at 170 pounds in a different promotion, and that raises a few concerns from me regarding the weight cut because it’s generally difficult to lose weight after gaining muscle mass like Choinski perhaps has, but we won’t know until the weigh ins! 

So, with all of that said, Mederos ML at 1.52 makes the most sense to me as a decent bet to place!