Austin FC v Houston Dynamo

Rivalry Week in the MLS continues this midweek and the first matchup is a Texas derby as Austin FC play host to local rivals Houston Dynamo in a clash which could see the home side move to the top of the Western Conference. 

With Los Angeles FC not in action in this midweek round, Austin will head up the west if they beat their Texas rivals, and given that Houston arrive at Q2 Stadium with just one win in their last six matches, they might have the perfect opponent to pick that win up against. 

Austin are in fine form at the minute, evidenced by their win in Atlanta at the weekend. It wasn’t so much the win which was impressive because we all know the struggles Atlanta United are going through, but to dominate the game, win 3-0 and potentially should have had even more having had a tight offside call disallow one goal and then hitting the post too was incredibly positive. 

That is standout form, even more so when you consider it was on the road. Austin produced an xG of 2.55. They did it with their top scorer Sebastian Driussi on the bench for the first half so he should be fresh enough to start here. 

Houston Dynamo were involved in a crazy game with FC Dallas at the weekend where they scored an equaliser in the 101^st minute. They had marquee DP signing Hector Herrera on the bench for that game and he could make his full debut here. 

He might shore up Houston when he has settled in but for now I think the Dynamo, who in their last three away games have given up xG totals of 3.53, 3.36 and 1.25 in three defeats, will be there for the taking for this impressive Austin side.

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Atlanta United v Real Salt Lake

The first match on the Thursday morning card sees Atlanta United looking to bounce back from that humbling defeat to Austin FC when they host Real Salt Lake, who have suddenly hit the buffers and are without a win in three matches. 

It is now just one win in eight games for Atlanta and for all we know that injuries are absolutely crippling them, especially defensively and in the heart of their midfield, they just have to be better than they were at the weekend. It seems that every time they are attacked at the minute they look like they are going to concede. 

The Five Stripes are going to get no respite here against a Real Salt Lake who carry plenty of goal threat in the form of Jefferson Savarino and Sergio Cordova among others. 

What will encourage Atlanta is that RSL have conceded five times in their last two matches and although they were well beaten by Austin at the weekend they still had an xG of 1.02 so it wasn’t like they didn’t create chances. 

Frustration is clearly beginning to build as evidenced by the stinging words of Josef Martinez after that loss and I expect an Atlanta rebound performance here, but the way they are defending and how disorganised they are I don’t expect the home side to keep a clean sheet right now. 

Real Salt Lake are particularly dangerous in wide areas which is where Atlanta are the weakest defensively so I like both teams to score in this one.

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Inter Miami v Philadelphia Union

Phil Neville’s decision to bench Higuain in favor of Ecuadorian forward Leonardo Campana has been a transformational one.

That’s particularly true at home, where Miami have gone six unbeaten since the switch, including impressive wins over the defending Supporters’ Shield winners New England Revolution and Eastern Conference title contenders New York Red Bulls. That has also translated to an analytical improvement. Miami have out-created opponents in their last three home games in terms of expected goals, after lagging them in their first five.

Philadelphia have been a more difficult than average away foe. But their three away wins come with a major caveat — that two of them came against CF Montreal and NYCFC at a time when each club was managing Concacaf Champions League commitments. If you remove those encounters, the Union have earned three points just once their last seven traveling fixtures.

Philadelphia may be coming off a morale-boosting 7-0 home win over D.C. United. But if anything, that result was a regression to the mean after similarly dominant displays at home. And a late row over who should take a penalty might have soured the post-match dressing room feelings.

This is far from an easy fixture for Miami. But the Union shouldn’t be away favourites here. Back the home side to get at least a point.

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DC United v Columbus Crew

Two Eastern Conference teams meet at Audi Field in the early hours of Thursday morning when DC United look to respond to their humbling in Philadelphia when they host the 2020 champions Columbus Crew. 

Reports are beginning to surface that Wayne Rooney is going to answer a DC United SOS and be their new head coach and boy does this team need someone with his profile to come in and sort them out. Their effort in Philadelphia on Friday evening was a little short of embarrassing, and while teams often respond to a margin of defeat like that in their next match, DC look like a shambles right now. 

Columbus Crew have clearly underperformed over the first half of the season. Some of that has been down to injuries, while the strange timing of the move that saw Gyasi Zardes head to Colorado didn’t help either, but I expect them to be a real force in the second half of the campaign. 

Cucho Hernandez looks a very good replacement for Zardes and with Lucas Zelarayan back and fit and the likes of Darlington Nagbe and Pedro Santos beginning to find their best form the Crew should improve dramatically. 

We have seen in the last couple of weeks that DC are shipping a huge amount of goals and pretty soft ones at that. They are missing first-choice keeper Bill Hamid but teams shouldn’t concede goals like that at this level. They have let in 13 in their last three matches. 

DC do carry a goal threat in Taxi Fountas though, and with confidence growing in the Crew going forward with a focal point to their attack I think we’ll see more than 2.5 goals in this one.

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Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City

Adian Heath’s Minnesota United are suddenly surging with three consecutive victories.

And in their third win, playmaker Emanuel Reynoso finally got some help in the attack, with struggling forwards Luis Amarilla and Franco Fragapane both scoring late in a 3-1 victory at the Vancouver Whitecaps. That doesn’t mean the Loons’ problems are suddenly solved. They’ll continue to remain on the edge of the Western Conference playoff race without more consistency from everyone in the front four. But a modest from Amarilla in particular could help free up Reynoso and Finish international Robin Lod to be more effective.

Sporting Kansas City also visit Minnesota on the heels of a 2-1 win at CF Montreal. That might be SKC’s most impressive result of the year at face value. A deeper look revals that Montreal were again playing without their most important player, attacking midfielder Djordje Mihailovic, and still created the lion’s share of the chances.

Kansas City have also failed to string together consecutive victories this season. And even though they’ve won two of their last three away, their expected goals-difference away is the worst in the Western Conference.

Add the short turnaround, a lack of depth and some injury questions even beyond the season-long absences of Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda, and it’s hard to envision SKC earning another result at an in-form opponent. Play the Loons to keep their win streak going.

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FC Dallas v New York City FC

The champions are in action once again on Thursday morning when New York City FC head to Texas to take on FC Dallas in what should be one of the more entertaining matches in this midweek round of action. 

New York City have been an entertaining side to watch for the last season or two but since Ronny Deila left for pastures new it seems they have become even more entertaining, if that was possible. 

They never had any issues knowing where the net was and 10 goals in their last three outings is no surprise. What is more of a shock is that they have conceded eight goals in that time and now they come up against a Dallas side who have a front three which has the potential to be the best in the league. 

American internationals Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola have been in fine scoring form this term with 19 between them in MLS, while Alan Velasco is a very creative player who will only improve in this side.

Dallas’ form has hit the skids in the last few weeks and they go into this one without a win in five matches but they haven’t stopped scoring in that time, they just haven’t kept goals out. NYC are suddenly conceding plenty more than we come to expect from them so over 2.5 goals looks a fairly obvious play here.

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LA Galaxy v San Jose Earthquakes

The San Jose Earthquakes have earned a league-worst 3 points from nine away matches this campaign. Because, for some reason, when not playing at PayPal Park, their high-powered attack has a tendency to disappear.

All 10 of the Quakes’ away goals have been scored in just four matches. In the five away games where they’ve failed to score, they’ve created only 2.0 expected goals. And it’s a tendency that doesn’t appear to have been impacted much by their April managerial change, with three of those failures coming after interim boss Alex Covelo took charge. One of San Jose’s only two defensive clean sheets also came on their travels in a scoreless draw at Nashville.

Similarly, the LA Galaxy’s home record has been marred by inconsistency in both phases. Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez’s side have been kept scoreless at home twice, just as often as on their travels. And nine of their 13 goals conceded at home have come in just three matches, while they’ve also kept three clean sheets. Oddsmakers are right to anticipate a higher scoring encounter here. But both teams’ inconsistency makes one team failing to find the net more likely than you might expect, especially with both attacks facing a short turnaround.

It may feel counterintuitive. But backing a no wager on both teams to score here has value. It’s a trend that has occurred just over half the time between Galaxy home fixtures and San Jose away matches.

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