The Championship kicks off on Friday night as Burnley travel to the Hawthorns to face West Brom. The visitors have started the season much more strongly than their opponents and have scored ten goals in their last three league games. West Brom on the other hand have faced a bit of a lull under Steve Bruce with just one league win and some fans are starting lose patience with him – just as Newcastle fans did.
The hosts are yet to lose on home soil so far this season and have faced some tough games – Watford, Sheffield United, Cardiff and Hull. They will be hoping they can continue this positive run of form at home, especially if their away form continues to be poor with just one point from games at Wigan, Huddersfield and Blackburn. They have also not strengthened as much as fans had hoped towards the end of the window, failing to replace Alex Mowatt and Callum Robinson who went to Cardiff.
The visitors are really starting to click with Kompany in charge but have a run of tough fixtures coming up – starting here. In the next two weeks they play the baggies, Norwich and Bristol City, as well as contesting the Lancashire derby with Preston. They will be hoping they can continue the form from the last two, where the goals have come more freely. However, what Kompany will be most pleased about is the clean sheet in midweek against Millwall – their first since playing Huddersfield on the opening day.
West Brom v Burnley Bet Builder Tips
Burnley Double Chance
Whilst the hosts are yet to lose on home soil and have only lost once all season in a tough run of fixtures, they’ve also only won one game – drawing five. Their squad is much better than this though and the negativity surrounding Steve Bruce may carry into the stadium. With only two league clean sheets all season, they have been conceding far too many goals – a trend I expect to continue going into this game.
Burnley will be very pleased with their start in their return to the Championship. They’re currently in third and will be buoyed here by the return of wing back Ian Maatsen who was sent off in their draw against Blackburn three games ago. They have only lost one game – at Watford – a game which they felt hard done by, winning the game 0.86-0.25 on xG. They will also be pleased to have Nathan Tella available, after he went off with a knock against Millwall. Muric will miss out in goal but Peacock-Farrell is a more than adequate replacement. Given the style of play that both teams have, I expect Burnley to have a lot more of the ball and I think the midfield of Cork, Brownhill and Cullen will be able to boss an ageing West Brom midfield that may include Jake Livermore. The two games that West Brom have lost so far this season (in all competitions) have been against 433 formations – which Burnley should deploy here.
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Prediction: Burnley Double Chance
Jed Wallace to have 2+ Shots
Jed Wallace moved to West Brom from Millwall over the summer, and you could easily have made a case that he deserved a move to the Premier League at this point in his career. However, Wallace moved to the Hawthorns in a move that stood out to all who follow the Championship. So far, he has managed two 2 goals and one assist which is down on his Millwall average of around 0.45 G/A per 90, but is still a decent return.
In his eight games so far, he has managed 16 shots, and has hit two in seven of these games – including two in just 15 minutes at Derby in the EFL Cup. The only game where this selection did not land was a tough game against Watford, who have been fairly solid at the back. His historical stats also back this up – in every season he has had in the Championship he has had at least 1.84 shots per 90. Some of these seasons were in the Millwall team which was significantly poorer than this West Brom team. He is also on free kicks.
Burnley have played four games against teams with a right winger – where Wallace has played. This selection has landed for three of these players – Ismaila Sarr, Shayne Lavery and Zian Flemming. Hull’s right winger against Burnley, Allahyar Sayyadmanesh, also managed one shot before he was taken off after 54 minutes. His historical shot starts are also much lower than Wallace’s, only averaging 1.50 shots per 90 minutes last season.
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Prediction: Jed Wallace to have 2+ Shots
Josh Brownhill to have 2+ Shots
I personally think that this line is very generous. In his seven starts in the Championship, this selection has landed in all of them, and Brownhill has managed 18 shots in these seven games. His historical shot stats have been poor but that is in part due to the role that Sean Dyche had him playing in the Premier League. In his last season at Bristol City in the Championship, where he played more advanced, he averaged 2.13 shots per 90. Kompany has given him more freedom, and this can be seen with his four goals and one assist in just seven games.
West Brom are yet to play against a flat 433 like Burnley will probably play on Friday night. However, this selection has landed for the players that will be in a similar position to Brownhill on Friday. Anjorin for Huddersfield managed three shots in 58 minutes, Sibley managed four for Derby in the cup, Ryan Wintle managed two for Cardiff at the Hawthorns, and Riley McGree managed three for Middlesbrough. This data suggests that Brownhill should have opportunities to shoot, and the evidence from his games suggest that he is not afraid to pull the trigger.
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Prediction: Josh Brownhill to have 2+ Shots
Nathan Tella to have 1+ Shots on Target
Nathan Tella moved to Burnley on a season-long loan from Southampton, and so far it looks like a very good move for both parties. In three starts, he has managed three goals as well as eleven shots. He is currently averaging 1.91 shots on target per 90 minutes for Burnley, and will be hoping he can fire them to promotion before returning to Southampton to make his mark on the south coast.
Tella plays on the left wing normally, and West Brom have allowed seven shots on target to forwards who have played on the left so far. They have also allowed 14 shots, which suggests that there will be opportunities for Tella to push forward and have opportunities and continue his very good run of form so far for the Clarets. Darnell Furlong should also be back at right back for this game, and he can get forward quite a lot, which could leave space in behind for Tella to exploit.
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Prediction: Nathan Tella to have 1+ Shots on Target
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How to watch West Brom v Burnley in the Championship
📅 When is West Brom v Burnley? / Friday, 2nd September 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is West Brom v Burnley? / The Hawthorns (West Brom)
📺 What TV channel is West Brom v Burnley on? / Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports Football
🟨 …And who is the referee for West Brom v Burnley? / J. Linington 🏴
