As mentioned already, both sides are going through a period of turmoil, struggling to find form and results. This makes it tricky to pick an outright winner, but if we look back at history between these two, Brentford will go into this affair with confidence.

While the odds may point slightly in West Ham’s favour, since Brentford’s return to the top-flight in 2021, the Bees have won all of the five times they’ve met in the Premier League. This has resulted in an aggregate score of 11-3 with two victories coming at the London Stadium, and considering the Hammers’ pitiful goalscoring form, this seems all too familiar.

Brentford, however, have had some chequered form as of late, losing seven of their last 11 away games in the league but they have consistently delivered in the key area that their Monday night hosts cannot – goals. Before their blank against Man City, the Bees had scored in eight consecutive Premier League matches and scored 2+ goals in three consecutive games on the road.

West Ham are winless since their stunning 2-0 victory over Arsenal back in the final days of 2023, marking eight games without a victory across all competitions. Since the turn of 2024, the Hammers have picked up two points from a possible nine at home and it feels difficult to back them getting a result here after many consecutive poor performances.

West Ham’s goalscoring troubles have certainly drawn some questions into David Moyes’ managerial status but there’s few teams in the league struggling as much in defence as Brentford right now.

Brentford have kept only 1 clean sheet since gameweek 10, which came only two weeks ago against Wolves. They have conceded at least once in seven consecutive away games in the Premier League and before their clean sheet at Wolves, they had conceded three goals in three consecutive away games across all competitions.

Both teams have scored in 64% of Premier League fixtures involving Brentford this season, with their Monday hosts trailing ever so slightly with 60% in this category. With the return of Michail Antonio and potentially Lucas Paqueta, this West Ham side should be able to deliver at least one goal here. Brentford are certainly not struggling for goals, netting 2+ goals in three of their last four away games.

Despite the Hammers’ scoring presence, their fixtures have drawn in goals, albeit at the wrong end. With a 3-0 defeat to Man Utd followed by a 6-0 defeat to Arsenal, three of their last five games in the Premier League have seen over 2.5 goals, with the other two games seeing two goals each.

Brentford have seen 3+ goals in seven of their last nine Premier League games and considering their continued attacking threat and their hosts’ persistent defensive struggles, as well as their own, this London derby could certainly bring net bulges.

Looking to capitalise on the strength of Brentford’s attack and West Ham’s tendency to concede efforts on goal, the Bees total shots on target markets offer promising value for Monday’s clash.

Brentford are consistent goal threats each week, registering an average of 12.50 shots on goal per 90 this season with 3.96 hitting the target. However, the latter of those figures certainly does not reflect their recent performances.

Brentford have hit the target at least five times in five of their last seven matches, with the only exceptions in that time being their matches against Man City. This includes six against Liverpool and seven against Wolves. This extends out to hitting the target 4+ times in seven of their last ten across all competitions.

This selection’s value is further emphasised by West Ham’s vulnerability in recent weeks. The Hammers have faced 5+ shots on target in eight of their last nine games across all competitions, including 8 (v Arsenal), 8 (v Brighton), 12 (v Arsenal) and 8 (v Nottingham Forest) – some tricky totals. These performances now mean that West Ham have conceded an average of 5.48 shots on target per 90 this season.

Brentford have been the experts in drawing fouls this season. Brentford are getting fouled an average of 11.30 times per 90 so far this season.

West Ham certainly don’t keep their feet to themselves as they’re committing 10.90 fouls per 90 so far this campaign, which are fairly tame stats considering recent performances. The Hammers have made 10+ fouls in four of their last five Premier League games, accumulating 55 fouls during that period – an average of 13.75 fouls. They have also drawn 10+ fouls on all of those occasions.

Brentford can certainly look to exploit this aspect of West Ham’s game, especially considering they’ve been fouled 12+ times in seven of their last ten across all competitions. This form continues when playing away from home with the Bees drawing 10+ fouls in each of their last nine away fixtures in the Premier League.

With patience running low across the West Ham camp, it’s likely the visitors will be subject to more knocks in this match.