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Wolves v Coventry Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Wolves v Coventry Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Friday 15 March, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Wolves v Coventry

📅
Kick Off: Saturday 16th March at 12:15
🏆
Competition: FA Cup
📺
Watch Live: ITV1

We've taken a closer look into Wolves and Coventry's showdown in the FA Cup this weekend. Aside from this clash though there's a wide range of football tips & predictions including this week's FA Cup bet builder tips.

Remember to browse our selection of free bet offers and all of the latest bookmaker offers we have on Andy's Bet Club to ensure you're getting the most for your money.

19 spots separate these traditional old clubs, and former FA Cup winners, in the league pyramid, with both clubs having seasons in which they have risen through the league table.

It is a huge tie as neither club has experienced cup competition glory since the 1980s, with Wolves winning the League Cup in 1980 and Coventry the FA Cup in 1987, and whilst both clubs do have fairly recent Wembley experience, it is still a rare enough chance to play at the national stadium.

Wolves are suffering from something of a specific injury crisis, all of their key injuries are to their forwards. Matheus Cunha, Hwang Hee-Chan, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, and Pedro Neto are all likely to be missing from this match, which equates to pretty much Wolves’ top four options in attack. Despite this, their Premier League form has been strong and Gary O'Neil is earning almost universal praise for his work.

Mark Robins has been receiving praise as Coventry manager for some time now. Leading the club out of League Two and to the brink of the Premier League, having reached the play-off final last season, the 23/24 season has certainly brought new challenges for Robins, but the team is on the verge of the play-offs again so it will be interesting to see if Robins is happy to go full strength here, one would assume this is too big of an opportunity to rotate his squad.

Ahead of this tie, we are able to read into the data and stats to have a good chance to predict how the teams will play. Hopefully, this insight can lead to some positive results for some bet builders.

Wolves v Coventry Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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🏆 Match stats: Good potential for goals spotted in the data

Coventry have had a resurgent kind of season so far. Coping with the loss of Viktor Gyokeres, Gus Hamer, and an entire defence of loanees, meant that the summer rebuild was always going to take time to gel. Coventry have been performing at a level just short of the Championship's big four since October. At this stage of the season, Coventry sit 6th in the league for xG generated and for goals scored in the Championship. Their defensive record is also very decent. They are equal 4th for goals conceded, but 9th for xG conceded. Even though Wolves do have lots of attacking players out, they will still fancy their chances of creating goalscoring opportunities against the Sky Blues. Wolves have done really well to get the results they have in the Premier League. They are now 9th, despite only having the 14th best xG data and the 15th best xG conceded data. This could point to a few things, and likely the explanation is a mixture of all of them. The team are effective in both boxes, they have been tactically astute and strong on their execution, gamestate has played a part in their data, and they might’ve also been fortunate so far. Either way, they are overachieving in a very strong league, and with them also having home advantage here, they have won half of their league home matches, they are deserving favourites. Coventry have lost eight and won seven of their away games in the Championship, but, as their data suggests, they will be a threat at Molineux and Wolves cannot take them lightly.

Predictions:

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.80

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80

⚽ Over 3.5 goals @ 2.55

🎯 Shooting stats: Torp to challenge Wolves' defences

The Danish central midfielder has settled well since his January move and has established himself as a free-kick taker for the Sky Blues. Torp has peppered the opposition goal, mainly from range, on a regular basis when he has played. He averages over a shot per game, and he has shot in every Coventry match he has played until last week in his 58 minutes at Watford. He has also managed to take 3 shots in 2 of his nine matches so far as well. Rayan Ait-Nouri could be an interesting angle for Wolves. It is difficult to predict what Gary O'Neil will do with his attacking options given the absentees, but his solution mid-game against Fulham was to shift Ait-Nouri to the right forward position, which allowed him to cut inside on his favoured left foot and become a shot threat. Ait-Nouri managed two shots against Fulham, and even from his regular left back slot he has managed at least one shot in four of his last six league outings.

Predictions:

⚽ Victor Torp to have 1+ shot @ 1.33

⚽ Victor Torp to have 2+ shots @ 2.87

⚽ Rayan Ait-Nouri to have 1+ shots @ 1.20

⚽ Rayan Ait-Nouri to have 2+ shots @ 2.10

🛑 To Foul stats: Simms looks a strong value selection

For a player who has fouled his opponents in six of his last seven matches, and completed at least 82 minutes in his last six matches, Ellis Simms has been given a relatively lenient price compared to his peers. He is now averaging 1.54 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season, and with Sakamoto out, Simms is getting a long run in the team. He is well worth adding into a bet builder for fouls, and potentially a single on the higher foul lines. He committed 3 against Watford at the weekend, and 6 against Plymouth Argyle a few weeks ago. From the Wolves side, Joao Gomes is a foul machine. He is Wolves’ most regular fouler, currently going at just over 2 fouls per 90, and with the likes of Josh Eccles, Kasey Palmer, and also Callum O’Hare on the pitch, Gomes is ripe for two or more fouls. If Toti gets a start then he is also worth a dart for a foul. He is a much lower fouler than Joao Gomes, but still averages over 1 per game, and his price is much more palatable than many of the others in the match.

Predictions:

⚽ Ellis Simms to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.73

⚽ Ellis Simms to commit 2+ fouls @ 4.50

⚽ Joao Gomes to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.50

⚽ Toti Gomes to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.33

🩹 To Be Fouled stats: Coventry ball carriers to be targeted

Wolves’ regular style doesn’t lend itself to many ball carriers, apart from Pedro Neto and Matheus Cunha, who will both be unavailable here. The speed of their transitions is usually most effective when they play the ball quickly and directly. However, as mentioned above, Rayan Ait-Nouri could be playing in a more advanced position, and even if he isn't, he is one of Wolves’ most regularly fouled players. He should be targeted by Coventry as a key man to stop. Coventry, on the other hand, contain within their XI a number of players who are happy to dribble the ball and attract opponents to them. Josh Eccles has actually been the most fouled Coventry player this season, though he isn't certain of a start here. If he is then he is a very backable price to be fouled at least once. The loss of Sakamoto for the rest of the season is unlucky for Coventry, but it has allowed Kasey Palmer more gametime. Palmer is the most regularly fouled player in the likely Coventry lineup and with players like Joao Gomes and Toti Gomes in and around him, the options for him to be fouled more than once look appealing.

Predictions:

⚽ Rayan Ait-Nouri to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.57

⚽ Josh Eccles to be fouled 1+ times @ 1.22

⚽ Josh Eccles to be fouled 2+ times @ 2.10

⚽ Kasey Palmer to be fouled 2+ times @ 1.30

⚽ Kasey Palmer to be fouled 3+ times @ 1.91

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