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Wolves v Newcastle
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Kick Off: Sunday 15th September at 16:30
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Competition: Premier League
Wolves go seeking their first Premier League win of the season when they play host to Newcastle at Molineux on Sunday.
The hosts have had a difficult start to the season, losing to Arsenal and Chelsea before drawing at Nottingham Forest, and with Aston Villa and Liverpool to follow this fixture in league play, Gary O’Neil’s side will be especially eager to break their duck to ease any mounting pressure.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have quietly picked up seven points from their three top-flight outings, with the 2-1 win over Tottenham prior to the international break suggesting they are getting close to their best form.
Wolves v Newcastle Best Bets
➡️ Rayan Ait-Nouri to have 1+ shots on target @ 3.75 on Paddy Power
➡️ Joao Gomes to commit 3+ fouls @ 2.30 on Paddy Power
➡️ Anthony Gordon to be fouled 3+ times @ 2.70 on Paddy Power
➡️ Newcastle corner match bet @ 1.80 on Paddy Power
The match odds on this game look fairly priced up but there are still some interesting player prop bets to look at.
In particular, Ait-Nouri to have one or more shots on target at 3.75 looks big given he has had shots in his last four games. He was used on the left wing last time out and got a shot on target from this more advanced role.
Furthermore, Joao Gomes to continue his streak of committing at least three fouls is well priced at 2.3 bearing in mind the Brazilian is on a run of four successive games in which he has committed at least this number of indiscretions.
Anthony Gordon to be fouled on three or more occasions also looks a strong bet at 2.70. He has been drawing fouls at a rate of 3.7 per 90 minutes this season.
Newcastle to win more corners at 1.8 is also value given how poor Wolves have been at creating these positions this year. The hosts have won only ten corners this term while the Magpies sit on 19.
📂 Wolves v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
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📊 Wolves Form and Stats
Wolves are 18th in the early Premier League table, which makes for uncomfortable reading, particularly as their only previous home game finished in a 6-2 beating by Chelsea. Remarkably, they were unfortunate that day, actually finishing the game with a higher xG than the Blues. Across their three Premier League matches this term, that is the only time this has occurred.
Goncalo Guedes is their top scorer in all competitions having bagged two against Burnley in the EFL Cup, but he has been out of favour when it has come to league games.
Instead, Cunha has been carrying the threat. The Brazilian has had nine shots at 4.29 per 90, although only three have found the target. Given his previous performance against Newcastle and the fact that he has had four shots in each of his last two games, he will need to be well policed by a makeshift Newcastle defence. He is 1.67 to have three or more shots.
Rayan Ait-Nouri is second in shooting for Wolves this season, with four shots in the Premier League. Given that he has mustered at least one effort in each of his four competitive matches, his price of 1.44 simply to try his luck looks big and he is a massive 3.75 to simply have one shot on target.
When it comes to fouls, look no further than Joao Gomes. The Brazil international has committed at least three fouls in each of his last four competitive starts for club and country, and after getting limited minutes on international duty, may well continue that trend.
Wolves are not an attractive proposition in the corners market, despite winning this battle against Newcastle in both games last season. They have won only ten in total so far in the Premier League this term.
📊 Newcastle Form and Stats
Newcastle have made a strong start to the season, yet the fact that they have only conceded two Premier League goals flatters them. In total, they have conceded 5.2 xG and have not dipped below 1.2 xGA in a league match this season. Of course, this is a symptom of defensive injuries, but there is a sense they have ridden their luck a little so far.
At the other end of the field, they have been effective, scoring in all four competitive matches, albeit only once on three occasions. Their four Premier League strikes have been shared across four players: Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Joelinton.
Isak has been the overwhelming threat for Newcastle this term, having eight shots. No one else at the club has had more than three, with Joelinton and Barnes in this bracket. Frustratingly for the Geordies, though, the Swede has only had two shots on target but should return from international duty confident after scoring three times against Azerbaijan and Estonia. He also netted against Spurs in his last Premier League game so is gaining momentum.
Joelinton, meanwhile, is the man when it comes to giving away fouls. He has done so on ten occasions so far this season at a rate of 3.33 per 90. Meanwhile, he is winning 2.0 per 90.
His compatriot Bruno Guimaraes has been an ace when it has come to drawing fouls. He stands on 16 for the season, which is six clear of anyone else in the Premier League. The former Lyon player has been fouled at least four times in each match so far, and this area of the park is set to be a battleground again.
One thing counting against backing him in this market is the fact he played over 100 minutes for Brazil in the international break, potentially putting in doubt his capacity to play the full match.
Anthony Gordon, who has been fouled ten times at 3.70 per 90, is also value at 1.57 to be fouled twice.
⚔️ Wolves v Newcastle Head-to-Head
Newcastle arrive in the Black Country five undefeated against Wolves, including a comprehensive 3-0 St James’ Park victory in March, the last time these sides met. Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Tino Livramento were all on target that day.
Each of the last two between these clubs at Molineux, meanwhile, have been drawn. Indeed, that has been the trend between these clubs in this fixture in recent years. Five of the last six have ended tied, four times 1-1. Wolves won the other game 2-1 in 2021.
Ten of the last 12 between these clubs, meanwhile have finished with both teams scoring.
Diving into the numbers, Newcastle have been unfortunate not to have more success against Wolves in recent seasons. In the last four games between the clubs, they have generated at least 1.7 xG and have conceded a maximum of 1.1 xG.
Last season at Molineux, they fashioned 2.2 xG compared to Wolves’ 0.9 and still only emerged with a 2-2 draw.
Matheus Cunha was the most dangerous man on the park that day as he had four shots, three of which hit the target. Newcastle’s Callum Wilson, meanwhile, netted twice but is unlikely to feature prominently here as he is recovering from back trouble.
Wolves’ Nelson Semedo was the only player to commit multiple fouls in both matches and is 2.2 with Paddy Power to do so again here.
O’Neil’s side only won 23 fouls across both matches with Newcastle last season. Pedro Neto was a powerhouse in this regard, drawing four, but Rayan Ait-Nouri came out on top with five. He is a doubt, however.
The Magpies, meanwhile, saw Bruno Guimaraes and Dan Burn both commit four fouls on their last visit to Wolverhampton.
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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
