I am very much aware that Wrexham lost their second home game of the season against Norwich at the weekend, however, this was despite Wrexham actually shading the xG battle during the match.

However, I also think that Norwich, despite their position in the league table compared to Leicester, currently find themselves in a better place than the Foxes here. Leicester have lost four of their last six in the league, have won only four matches away from home in the league all season, and haven’t won in any of their last four away from home, losing their last three.

Leicester’s xG differential away from home so far this season is a really poor -0.67 xG, and this is a key reason as to why this bet appeals. They haven’t won the xG battle away from home in six matches, and they have won that particular metric in only three of 14 away matches this season.

Wrexham, on the other hand, have a differential of +0.35 xG at home and have consistently created chances to score plenty of goals here; 11 of their 14 home matches have seen Wrexham create more than 1 xG.

Wrexham come into this clash having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently falling to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Norwich at home. Wrexham’s home games tend to be entertaining, they’ve seen 46 goals across their 14 home games in the Championship this term (3.28 per game).

The meeting between the sides earlier in the season saw BTTS as the teams played out a 1-1 draw. Leicester registered an xG of 1.07 in that clash, with Wrexham not too far behind with an xG of 0.91. The Foxes have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of their 2-0 win in the FA Cup against lower league opposition.

Leicester lost 2-1 on the road against Coventry last time out and have seen 44 goals across their 14 away matches in the Championship this term (3.14 per game). Leicester have won just four of those matches, so we can expect them to be on the back foot here, but they still have enough firepower to get on the scoresheet.

I am fairly staggered by this price and believe this to be one of the best value bets in the match.

James has been Leicester’s most potent attacking threat since he established himself in the team in September. He has four goals in his last five matches, and he has shot more regularly than any other Leicester player in their last five matches.

Despite these facts, James remains as big as 1.83 for two shots, a feat that he has achieved in each of his last four matches. Team-mate Abdul Fatawu, with one fewer shot than James over the last five played, is 1.12 for the same outcome.

His overall average this season is 1.72 shots per 90, for which this price still seems on the generous side, but he is playing against a team in Wrexham who have actually conceded the highest number of shots against them in the league so far this season, 403 and counting. This averages out at 14.93 per match so far this season, and James is as likely as any Leicester player at the moment to be able to take advantage of this.

This is a bet that I put up in the FA Cup for Wrexham against Nottm Forest, and Broadhead managed only one shot in the match on that occasion. So, you can imagine how frustrating it then was to see him shoot on no less than five occasions last weekend at home to Norwich.

Those five strikes carried on a sequence in which Broadhead has had at least two shots in his last five starts in the Championship. He is averaging 2.7 shots per 90, a similar rate to Kieffer Moore, who is less than half the price of Broadhead here.

His last five starts at home read five shots (v Norwich), one (v Nottm Forest), four (v Preston), three (v Sheff Utd), and five (v Blackburn).

Leicester don’t quite concede as many shots as Wrexham do on average, but they are still in the bottom half of the league for shot concession, 12.85 shots against per 90, and that figure increases hugely to 14.57 when playing away from the King Power. Indeed, in their last six away games Leicester have conceded 19 (most recent), 13, 12, 21, 18, and 18 shots to their hosts.