Serie A is exceptionally well stocked when it comes to top-quality goalkeepers, and despite flying comparatively under the radar, Jean Butez has been amongst the very best.

The French shot-stopper has averaged 3.0 saves per 90 in Serie A and carries an impressive 81.8% save rate - the second best of any keeper in Italy’s top-flight. He’s also been kept far busier than in the early weeks, recording at least two saves in 11 of his last 13 appearances, compared to just three of his opening seven.

Bologna have averaged 4.0 shots on target per 90 in the league this season, forcing the opposition keeper into making at least two saves in 78% of league outings. That includes nine of their most recent 10, over which period only Inter managed to prevent this selection landing. They’ve also brought this selection home in 23 of their 27 matches across all competitions.

Como have been a joy to watch this season. Only Milan have suffered fewer defeats, and significantly, Como appear to have shaken off their tendency to let winnable matches drift into draws, recording three successive victories for the first time this season.

They’ve kept clean sheets in each of those games, all while hitting their opponents for seven at the other end. The home advantage could also be a significant factor given Como’s average of 2.25PPG at home, compared to just 1.50 when on the road.

Bologna are six matches without a win, and the underlying figures suggest the pair of draws might flatter them; in fact, they created fewer xG than their opponents in each of those six. Endowed with a smaller squad than most, Vincenzo Italiano has struggled to cope with the fixture congestion facing Bologna, who are set to contest their fourth match in the space of just 13 days.

Luke Williams has got Peterborough purring and despite their 5-2 reverse at high-flying Lincoln last time out, five wins in their six league games prior to that has propelled them into the top half of the League One table. Posh have been especially strong at home under his stewardship, losing just once in their last six games on their own patch, meaning this bet has cashed in all of the other five. 

All season, Bolton’s underlying data has suggested a promotion charge is just around the corner, but a disappointing festive period has left them nine points off the top two. Steven Schumacher’s squad have only won twice on the road all season and having failed to win at strugglers Northampton, Burton and Doncaster, they’re clearly not confident travellers. A trip to a buoyant Posh side looks a lot tougher than it might have done six weeks ago, and it’s not one that Bolton look capable of winning.

Brentford should feel confident enough to cover this line on their own with the Bees netting 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. Sheffield Wednesday have also seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, but have suffered more in this recent run with Henrik Pedersen’s side entering this cup tie having failed to win across their last five matches.

Sheffield Wednesday have failed to win any of their 13 matches at home in the Championship this term, with these games producing 36 goals (2.76 per game). They’ve conceded 29 of these goals, which is more than any other side at home in the Championship this season - by some distance. This would suggest that Sheffield Wednesday are lacking confidence, which is something that a high flying Brentford side can look to take advantage of

Newcastle welcome Bournemouth for an all Premier League clash in the third round of the FA Cup, with both sides seeing really exciting matches in the Premier League during the week. Eddie Howe’s side claimed a 4-3 win over Leeds thanks to a 90+12 minute winner from Harvey Barnes. 

Bournemouth also left it late during the week, striking in the final minutes through Antoine Semenyo to pick up all three points in a 3-2 win over Tottenham. That victory marked the fifth consecutive games where Bournemouth have seen BTTS - with the Cherries notably winning just one of these games.

Newcastle’s backline isn’t the most secure at the moment either, with the Magpies seeing BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions. The most recent clash between these sides ended in a 0-0 draw, but the three previous head-to-head clashes have seen BTTS - with Bournemouth going unbeaten against Newcastle in each of the last five clashes.

Although 0-12 on the all-weather, I feel that DREAM PIRATE is well placed to win a first race on the artificial surface. The son of Oasis Dream has caught the eye in his previous two runs over shorter journeys, keeping on over inadequate trips.

The rise to 1m2f ought to suit and he has a good low draw to work with. I anticipate him to be at least challenging for the placings.

In what appears a typically fiendishly-difficult Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, I’m siding with a runner who is aiming to win three races in-a-row. FASOL may not have displayed the wildly impressive winning performances from those at the head of the market, but the Paul Nicholls-trained Galileo gelding has quietly notched a brace of hurdle wins this term.

His 2m4f success at Musselburgh on New Year's Day was pleasing, which should set him up nicely for this slight rise in trip, as an unexposed type over longer distances. He holds each-way claims at fair double-figure odds. 

Despite a few in-form rivals to contend with, I have no doubt that CHARLIE’S CHOICE is the one to side with in Lingfield’s finale. The Lightning Spear gelding was winning for a sixth time on the all-weather last week, when sprinting clear over track and trip, under this jockey.

He could defy the 5lb rise in the weights, having won that race with authority, coupled with the fact that he’s won from this mark before.

WILLIETHEBUILDER was a winner for me over course-and-distance last time. Some may be leaving him out of calculations here, as he was raised 8lb, but I feel as though he could still be improving, considering that was a clear career best.

The seven-year-old has scope for further progress for his relatively new trainer, and his rider is good value for his 5lb claim.

In what appears a two-horse-race, TED LE SAUX is favoured. Inspired did win a course-and-distance maiden in impressive fashion, but has a 7lb penalty for that triumph. I’m hopeful that can give my selection the advantage, having made a pleasing debut at Lingfield.

The Cracksman gelding is likely to appreciate the step up to 1m4f, and with that first run under his belt, can improve enough to land this small-field event.

Before the season I thought the Bills had a solid chance to go the whole distance, but they’ve been wildly inconsistent all season. When they’re hot, they’re red hot and scorching, but it’s very hard to predict when that’s going to be. They’ve only won five of eight road games this season, which is a concern.

The Jags are riding high on an eight-game winning streak, and they fully deserve those victories. Liam Coen has breathed new life into Trevor Lawrence, who’s my Most Improved Player of the Year award winner this season. What really stands out is their defense, who’ve gone from one of the worst last season to ranking 6th in defensive DVOA this year. That and the homefield advantage should be enough to see the Jaguars reach the next round.

When I’m looking at potential upsets in this Wild Card Round, this is one of the games that really stands out. I’m really not sold on this Eagles team. They’ve lost over a third of their games, and they’ve done so in a terrible division. They’re not the same team that won the Super Bowl last year. The offensive line is far worse, and they rank firmly middle of the pack, 16th of 32 in Expected Points Added.

The Niners rank 8th in that metric and have shown a noticeable improvement as the season has progressed. They’ve finished the season strongly, which has made their earlier struggles go slightly under the radar, but this is a team that missed a lot of key starters at points in the year. They’re not healthier and are dangerous. They’re 7-2 against the spread when they’re on the road, and I think they cover here, and potentially win the game outright.

We’re set for a high-scoring game here. This Patriots offense has put up some big numbers this season and is ranked 3rd in DVOA for a reason. They’re averaging 28.8 points per game this season, and despite a weaker schedule, it’s still impressive how they’ve been able to dominate teams.

The Over has gone 11-6 in Patriots games, but with their defense struggling this season, it’s easy to see the Chargers, with Justin Herbert under centre, putting up a reasonable score if this turns into a shoot-out.

The Patriots are heavy favourites for this game against the Chargers and have been given a 10-point handicap on the spread. I can see why the Patriots are so popular, after all, they did finish with 14 wins and have an MVP candidate in Drake Maye, but I can’t escape the feeling they’re not as good as advertised.

The Patriots schedule was very easy. They only played three games against opponents who reached the play-offs. Twice against the Bills, who are in their division, where they finished 1-1, and then a defeat to the Steelers. The Chargers defense are ranked 10th in DVOA, whilst the Pats D are in the bottom third. The Patriots offence is powerful enough to get the win, but I want to play it safe and not take the handicap.