Bournemouth have been one of the most aggressive sides in the Premier League since Andoni Iraola took charge of the club, with the Cherries often ending up with a high card count due to how they press opposition sides.

Bournemouth have collected 67 yellow cards across their 28 matches in the Premier League this season (2.39 per game). Only Brighton (68) and Tottenham (71) have picked up more cards than the Cherries this season, with Iraola’s side also ranking second for fouls in the division (12.3 per game), only behind Wolves (13.4 per game).

Bournemouth collected two yellow cards against Brentford in their 4-1 defeat to the Bees earlier on in the campaign from a foul count of eight - quite below their usual average. Bournemouth collected four yellow cards in their most recent Premier League assignment from a foul count of 15 as they were held 1-1 by Sunderland at home last time out.

Leeds have been a very fun side to watch at Elland Road this season with their 14 home matches producing 41 goals (22 scored, 19 conceded - 2.92 per game). 

Daniel Farke’s side have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of Leeds’ 1-0 defeat to Manchester City last time out - a game that really should have produced more goals with a combined xG of 3.49 from 28 match shots. 

Sunderland tend to unravel a bit on the road, conceding 21 goals across their 14 away games in the Premier League - a tally that accounts for 61% of the total goals that Sunderland have conceded in the Premier League this season. They saw 2+ goals last time out as they managed to hold Bournemouth to a 1-1 draw on the road.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced exactly two goals as the sides played out a 1-1 draw. The underlying data from that clash suggests that Leeds could cover this line on their own with Farke’s side ending that game with an xG of 2.17 from 17 shots.

Barnsley come into this clash having seen BTTS in their most recent assignment as they ran out 3-1 winners over Leyton Orient. That win marked the fifth successive game in which Barnsley have seen BTTS, with Conor Hourihane’s side winning two of these games.

Barnsley have been pretty reliable for entertaining matches all season, and the most recent league meeting between the sides is a good example of the level of goal action we can expect here. The sides played out a 2-2 draw when they last met, with both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.67-1.21). Each of the last four head to head meetings between the sides have seen BTTS.

Wycombe have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches ahead of this clash, and have notably seen 33 goals across their 16 away matches in League One this term (2.06 per game). They’ve only managed to win two of these games, so there should be opportunities for Barnsley to build on their win over Leyton Orient last time out, but a clean sheet is unlikely for the home side.

Liverpool looked as strong as they have been over recent months in their 5-2 win over West Ham last time out, and can take a massive step in their goal of securing Champions League football next season with a win here. 

Liverpool were aided by Aston Villa and Chelsea dropping points over the weekend, giving Manchester United and Arne Slot’s the temporary advantage in the race for a top four finish. Liverpool have won their last four matches coming into this clash, winning three of these games to nil which should give them the confidence to collect all three points at Molineux on Tuesday evening.

Liverpool beat Wolves 2-1 when the sides met earlier in the season, and were pretty convincing in that display with an xG of 1.54 from 14 shots and 67% possession. They’ve won each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides, adding a historical edge to the Reds’ chances of picking up all three points.

Wolves have picked up fewer points than any other side at home in the Premier League this season, winning only two of their 15 matches in front of their own fans. I also think that Rob Edwards may prioritise Wolves’ clash with Liverpool in the FA Cup which takes place over the weekend, as Wolves have much more to fight for in that competition with their relegation to the Championship all but confirmed.

Mateus Mane was bright again in Wolves’ 2-0 win over Aston Villa last time out. He didn’t quite manage to get a goal contribution, but did manage 2+ shots in the game, meaning that Mane has now had 2+ shots in three of his last five Premier League appearances.

Liverpool ran out 5-2 winners against West Ham over the weekend, but that victory wasn’t as straightforward as it looked, with West Ham managing 11 shots in the game and generating an xG of 1.86. Mane made his breakout performance against Liverpool at Anfield earlier in the campaign, managing four shots in that clash - with all of those efforts coming from outside of the box. 

This has been a common trend for Mane when he does take aim, 21 of his 29 shots have come from outside of the box (72%). This suggests that Mane isn’t too calculated with his efforts and will try to get shots away as soon as he gets relatively close to the goal. This works out to a shot average of 2.24 shots per 90, which should be enough for Mane to get at least two shots away here.

Alexis Mac Allister committed two fouls against West Ham last time out as Liverpool ran out 5-2 winners. It’s the second consecutive game that has seen Mac Allister commit at least two fouls, and he should be in for a competitive midfield battle here against Joao Gomes.

Mac Allister has committed 20 fouls across his 23 Premier League starts this term, working out to an average of 0.94 fouls committed per 90. Mac Allister is far more aggressive than this current foul average suggests, he averaged 2.14 fouls committed per 90 last season, and this drop-off can be attributed to the experimental setups that Slot has gone with in midfield this season.

His main opponent here is likely to be Joao Gomes, who was fouled three times in Wolves’ 2-0 win over Aston Villa last time out.

Wolves have let frustration get the better of them on a few occasions this season, mainly due to their struggles in being competitive in the Premier League. Wolves have picked up 60 yellow cards across their 29 Premier League matches this term, working out to an average of 2.06 cards per game.

Wolves committed 13 fouls and picked up one yellow card on their trip to Anfield earlier on in the season, and should really have collected a second yellow from their foul count in that game. Only four sides have picked up more yellow cards than Wolves in the Premier League this season, with Wolves committing more fouls than any other side in the division (13.4 per game).

The initial league meeting between the sides saw 10 corners, Wolves still managed to contribute to the corner count in that game, with Liverpool racking up six of those corners.

Arne Slot has been very vocal about his frustrations with the tactical state of the Premier League at the moment, probably because he built this side for a completely different style of football, but is now leaning more towards the direct and set piece nature of the division.

Liverpool scored three of their five goals from corners against West Ham last time out, racking up 10 corners while also allowing the Hammers to register five. Only Bournemouth, West Ham and Newcastle are seeing more corners per game than Liverpool (10.4) in the Premier League this season.

Wolves are seeing 9.3 corners per game, which still covers the line we require here, and Liverpool’s recent shift to being more effective from corners and set pieces should see this line covered pretty comfortably by both sides.

I think that the place to start with this bet is to address the fact that this is a huge match for both teams. For either team to drop points here could be devastating to their long-term goal of promotion. High-tension matches can sometimes produce more cards than those with little riding on them.

But there is also enough from the data for both teams, and the referee, to make this line of cards quite gettable.

Starting with the referee, Thomas Kirk. He is averaging over four yellow cards per match across his 16 Championship assignments this season so far, and in his 27 second-tier matches in his career, he is at 4.3 yellow cards given per match.

Birmingham home matches average 4.39 yellow cards in the league, with their opponents averaging well over two cards received.

Middlesbrough away matches average 4.35 yellow cards in the league, and again, they seem to encourage their opponents to get booked, with around 2.5 cards given to their hosts when they visit.

I am simultaneously surprised and pleased that we can get the over 8.5 corner line into the bet builder here.

Birmingham have gone corner crazy in their home matches recently. They won 11 against West Brom alone and 10 against Leicester, which obviously covers this line easily without any contribution from the visitors. They now average over seven corners won at home, and when combining visitor corners, the total average is just over 11.5.

Middlesbrough are also big corner winners. Even away from home, the Teessiders are averaging six corners per match.

Taking the averages across both teams would make 13 corners. We know that football matches don't work that way, of course, but there is a good chance that we will get over the 8.5 line.

The Australian is often trusted by Middlesbrough managers in the big games because of the tactical flexibility and reliability that he offers.

We are interested in his shooting ability, and there is reason to believe that he is being underrated by the layers here in this case.

McGree’s last two starts have seen him hit five shots, last time out against Leicester, and four shots, at league leaders Coventry. Even in between those matches, McGree managed two shots in a 30 minutes sub appearance against Oxford.

He is averaging 2.84 shots per 90. Six of his last seven starts have seen him beat this line.

This is priced up much higher than I think it should be.

Putting aside that Targett will be lining up at left-back, and we know that full-back is one of the most common positions for high foul counts, Targett’s own data and then the fouls drawn of his likely opponent make this a must bet within our bet builder.

Targett has been used in central defence for a good percentage of the campaign, and this has suppressed his foul numbers. This could be having some influence on the misprice because his last eight matches have seen him play LB, and he has committed 12 fouls in this period.

He committed four fouls against Leicester last time out and has committed at least one foul in six of the last eight matches at LB.

There is also the likelihood that he will face Patrick Roberts of Birmingham. Roberts is a regular foul drawer, 1.73 per 90 on average, and he has been fouled at least once in each of his last five starts. He is priced at 1.22 to be fouled in the match.

Bournemouth are in a much better place since that match took place in December, and they will be hoping to extend their unbeaten run.

The hosts should be confident, given how that 4-1 scoreline massively flattered the hosts. Kevin Schade bagged himself a hat-trick, but Caoimhin Kelleher put in an equally strong case for picking up the Man of the Match award, racking up a total of nine saves. 

Bournemouth registered 20 shots worth 2.72 xG at the Gtech Stadium, with ten of those hitting the target. In return, Brentford managed 15 shots worth 3.66 xG. That translated to a total of 17 corners, with Bournemouth accounting for 15 of those.

This is a clash between two attack-minded teams, and chances are expected at either end of the field once again. Because of that, corners remain a target.

With the reverse fixture taking place at the end of December, Rayan had not yet arrived on the south coast, but he looks set to start against Brentford on Tuesday night.

The Brazilian international has hit the ground running for his new side, and already has two goals and an assist to his name after four appearances. He was on the scoresheet on his first start for Bournemouth against Aston Villa, and followed that up with another goal against Everton.

Rayan was unlucky to see that scoring streak ended against West Ham, as he struck the post after a solo run. However, he did still land this selection by registering a shot on target. 

Antoine Semenyo scored the only goal for Bournemouth in the reverse fixture against Brentford, as he recorded five shots, of which four hit the target. Rayan is a very similar profile to Semenyo, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

Robin Roefs has been one of the signings of the season and has remained a reliable shot stopper for Sunderland throughout the campaign. He was forced into four saves when the sides met earlier in the season, and could come into the limelight even more now that Sunderland are the away side.

It is pretty obvious that Regis Le Bris’ side prefer playing at home when looking at their record on the road this season. Sunderland have conceded 61% of their goals in the Premier League in their away games this term - suggesting that the Black Cats have to rely on Roefs a bit more when they travel away from the North East.

Roefs has been forced into making 85 saves across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.04 saves per 90 with a very promising save percentage of 71.4%. He was called into action four times in Sunderland’s most recent away game, with that display earning Sunderland a point against Bournemouth.

The initial league meeting between these sides finished 0-0, but still produced 11 match corners - offering promise for a high corner count in this latest meeting between the two sides. Corners have never been more important than they are today in the Premier League, with pretty much every club leaning towards set pieces as a viable route to goal.

Everton are seeing 9.43 corners per game across their 28 matches in the Premier League this term, with this metric rising to 9.64 corners per game when looking at their home matches in the Premier League this season. Burnley are seeing 9.39 corners per game in the top flight this term, with the Clarets seeing quite a jump to 10.07 corners per game when honing in on their away matches in the Premier League.

I also think the style of both of these sides lends itself to quite a high corner count. Burnley tend to sit quite deep and shut off central areas, allowing Everton to rack up their corner count as they try to breakdown Burnley from the wide areas. There is then the tactical argument for Burnley to end up with a decent corner count with the success they may have on the counter attack in this game.