In League One, Bradford suffered a setback in their promotion aspirations at the weekend as they fell to AFC Wimbledon in what was a pretty insipid display.

On the face of it, this isn’t the type of form you would want to see when including an odds-on shot into an acca, but there are many reasons why I think that Bradford deserve our support here.

As disappointing as that display at Wimbledon was, it should serve as a timely kick to remind the team that they have to be at it in every League One game, especially if they want to maintain their top-six place.

Also, that match was away from home, where Bradford tend to have struggled much more. Indeed, there is no club in League One with such contrasting home and away results as Bradford, which is obviously not ideal, but could serve its purpose for this bet, with the team likely to feel a lot more confident coming into this match knowing that they have that home advantage.

Bradford have lost six out of seven away, but won seven out of eight at Valley Parade.

Rotherham have lost three in a row in the league, and six of their last seven away games in all competitions. They are scrapping for their lives at the bottom of League One, but they have gotten themselves into this position by being poor, and they are struggling to find the quality to get out of it.

Middlesbrough have faced some setbacks in recent weeks after getting within touching distance of Coventry, but have the perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways here. Kim Hellberg’s side have won 10 of their 16 games at home in the Championship this term, only Coventry (12) have won more home games in the Championship this season.

Leicester are currently going through quite a gruelling process off the pitch which has resulted in the club being deducted six points. These off the field issues are having a direct impact on the on field performances of the Leicester players with the Foxes failing to win any of their last eight matches across all competitions, six of these games have ended in defeat.

Leicester’s away record in the Championship this term should further encourage Middlesbrough with Leicester only winning four of their 17 away matches in the Championship this term. They did manage to hold Middlesbrough to a 1-1 draw when the sides met earlier in the season, but were aided by a penalty and a red card - 0.79 of the 1.60 xG they generated in that game came from the penalty so they failed to carry a significant attacking threat.

Wrexham have been tough to beat at home in the Championship this season, only four of the 17 sides that have visited Wales have left with all three points - making this a tough assignment on paper for Portsmouth.

The sides played out a 0-0 draw when they met earlier in the season, but the stakes are higher for this meeting with Wrexham chasing down a playoff spot and Portsmouth hoping to steer further clear of the drop zone.

Portsmouth have only managed to win four of their 16 away matches in the Championship this term, losing seven of these games and conceding 25 goals in the process.

Wrexham come into this clash having just beat Ipswich 5-3 at home in a massive boost to their playoff push. They’ve only lost one of their last five matches across all competitions, and should have the momentum to avoid defeat in this clash.

Only Coventry, Ipswich and Middlesbrough have lost fewer games in the Championship than Wrexham this season, so they are one of the best sides in the division and that standing should translate to at least a point here, if not all three.

The context surrounding this tie paves the way for goals in this encounter. Inter suffered a 3-1 defeat in the first leg, so they have to score at least two goals to level the tie - and I'm not entirely sure that they will be able to keep Bodo Glimt out.

Bodo Glimt have been an entertaining watch in the Champions League all season, they’ve seen 3+ goals in eight of their nine Champions League matches with BTTS also landing in all eight of these games. Their last three matches in the Champions League have seen them beat Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and their opponents here so confidence shouldn’t be an issue for the away side.

Inter being two goals down gives this angle a great chance, they’ve been taking more risks under Chivu this term and this is an opportunity for that style to rise to the fore again. Bodo Glimt can also play their part in making this an entertaining contest, offering a real threat in moments of transition with Inter bound to leave gaps when they go sailing forward.

Bodø/Glimt caused another surprise with their first leg win over Inter Milan last week, adding to the scalps they took late in the league phase against the likes of Atlético Madrid and Manchester City. The Norwegian side have been an entertaining watch throughout this Champions League campaign, with both teams scoring in eight of their nine matches in the competition.

Inter Milan, meanwhile, narrowly missed out on a top eight finish in the league phase, largely due to a poor run of form at the end of that stage from Chivu’s side, who let their place in the automatic spots slip. Inter have been involved in higher scoring games this season under their manager, with 22 goals across their eight Champions League matches - an average of 2.75 per game.

Inter know they need to score at least twice to get back into the tie, and it’s hard to see them keeping Bodø/Glimt quiet for the full 90 minutes. With Inter pushing forward aggressively in search of goals, the visitors should have opportunities to hit them on the break as the Italians look to breathe life back into this intriguing playoff clash.

This looks like a top boost, i’m behind it.

Atletico Madrid opened the scoring after just eight minutes in the first leg meeting between these sides, in which Club Brugge came from behind twice to secure a 3-3 draw - keeping the tie alive for this second leg clash.

Atletico Madrid have scored 11 goals across their four home games in the Champions League this term, winning three of these games. They’ve only conceded five goals across these matches, and have scored the first goal in six of their nine Champions League games overall.

What is particularly notable about this already promising record is how often Atletico Madrid score within the first 10 minutes of their games in the Champions League this term. As well as netting inside 10 minutes last week, Atletico Madrid have struck early against the likes of Inter Milan and Galatasaray this season.

Furthermore, Atletico Madrid’s home record in LaLiga also offers promise for this selection. Diego Simeone’s side boast the second strongest home record in the Spanish top flight this term and have scored 30 goals across their 13 matches, conceding just 11 goals. 

I like the look of this boost, I’ve backed it personally.

The EFL Trophy is usually a reliable competition for goals, with sides often choosing to rest and rotate players at this pivotal stage of the season. That being said, clubs do tend to take it seriously from this stage onwards with Luton or Plymouth set to take on Northampton in the semi finals should they progress from this tie.

The last time that these sides met at Kenilworth Road, the contest produced five goals with Plymouth coming away 3-2 winners. Goals have been common for Plymouth across recent weeks, with this selection landing in four of their last five matches across all competitions - with the exception of a 4-0 win over Blackpool on the road.

Luton have seen this land in two of their last five matches across all competitions, and have seen 40 goals across their 17 home games in League One this term (2.35 per game). The knockout nature of this game should encourage an end to end game, with neither side likely to want this tie to go beyond the 90 minutes given the intense schedule of these two sides. 

Southampton have seen BTTS in each of their last three games ahead of this clash, with only one of those games ending in a draw. This selection also landed the last time that these sides met, with Southampton coming out 2-1 winners in that clash and I can see a similar result at St Mary’s on Tuesday evening.

QPR have seen 40 goals across their 17 away matches in the Championship this term (2.35 per game), and importantly tend to carry a decent attacking threat on the road. They caused Southampton quite a few problems in the initial meeting, despite coming out on the wrong side of the result, scoring from one of their 18 shots in the game - totalling an xG of 1.85.

Southampton have netted 21 goals across their 16 home matches in the Championship this term, so we can expect them to be the dominant attacking force in this clash. Their recent record lines up quite well with QPR who have seen this selection land in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of a 0-0 draw against Charlton. 

Club Brugge and Atletico Madrid have been two of the most attack-minded sides in the Champions League this season. In the league phase, both sides had an average of 4.0 goals per game, with over 2.5 goals landing in all eight of Club Brugge’s games, and in seven for Atletico Madrid. 

The first leg meeting between the sides lived up to expectations, and it was an enthralling encounter. Club Brugge recorded a total of 17 shots, of which 10 hit the target, while Atletico Madrid had 13 shots with four on target. Both sides had an identical xG tally of 2.33, highlighting how it was an even contest. 

Jan Oblak was the busier of the two goalkeepers, registering seven saves, but a draw was probably a fair result in the end, and there is still everything to play for in the second leg. 

Atletico Madrid managed six corners at the Jan Breydel Stadium, and they should once again be front-footed in their approach. Diego Simeone’s men tend to take things up a gear when they play on home turf, and they will expect to exert a lot more control on proceedings than they did in the first leg. 

Visiting the Metropolitano can be a daunting trip for away sides. Atletico are averaging 8.28 corners per game there across all competitions this season. They have recorded at least five corners in each of their last 13 home games, including against the likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid and Inter Milan. 

Club Brugge conceded early in the reverse, and they will hope to be much tighter in the opening stages here. If they can keep Atletico Madrid at bay, that would be an ideal gamestate to target corners for the hosts.

Despite only featuring for the final 24 minutes off the bench against Club Brugge, Alexander Sorloth still registered three shots - no other Atletico Madrid player managed more. The Norwegian international looked dangerous when he was introduced, hitting the target once, while also striking the woodwork late on. Sorloth was able to find gaps in the Club Brugge defence, and utilise his physicality to get into promising positions. Because of that, he will hope to start in the second leg. 

Sorloth hasn’t been able to lock down a consistent starting role this season at Atletico, but when he does start, he usually makes an impact. Sorloth is averaging 3.57 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, rising steeply to 4.75 when playing at the Metropolitano. He has landed this bet in each of his last seven starts on home turf and bagged a brace against Espanyol at the weekend. 

Sorloth racked up eight shots with five on target on matchday 8 of the Champions League against Bodo/Glimt, as Atletico were able to dominate proceedings. The hosts registered up 65% possession, but Marc Pubill still landed this selection as he accounted for two of Atletico’s nine fouls in that match. 

There weren't many fouls in the first leg between the two either - Club Brugge recorded only five infringements, to Atletico’s eight. Once again, though, Pubill accounted for two fouls, and this time he was booked. 

The Spaniard is averaging 1.3 fouls per 90 this season, and has landed this selection in 13 of his last 16 appearances across all competitions. Diego Simeone wants his centre backs to be aggressive in their duels, to get tight to the opposing attackers in an attempt to win the ball back quickly and sustain pressure on their opponents. That means Pubill can often be dragged out of position. 

Qarabag did actually generate more corners than Newcastle in the first leg - the hosts had eight, compared to six for the Magpies. On the few occasions where Qarabag managed to progress the ball out of their defensive third, they would often go wide, which was an effective way of racking up corners. 

This line also cleared easily when the Azerbaijani side faced Liverpool in matchday eight of the Champions League. There were 15 corners in that one, although Liverpool contributed 14 to that tally, in what was another heavy defeat for Qarabag. They won’t be looking forward to making a return to English soil here, given how the Reds accumulated 38 shots and ten big chances against them, with that game finishing 6-0 at Anfield. 

Newcastle are averaging 6.82 corners per game at St James’ Park this season, and they had nine corners against Brentford in their last home outing.

Despite their dominance in the first leg, Newcastle still recorded ten fouls, and the only booking of the game went to Thiaw. Dan Burn also committed one foul, meaning he has landed this selection in each of his last seven starts for Newcastle since recovering from a broken rib and punctured lung. 

Interestingly, Qarabag rank top of the charts for total fouls drawn this season in the Champions League, and rock bottom for fouls committed. They were fouled 13 times by Liverpool, despite losing that match 6-0. The Azerbaijan side have struggled in Europe this season, but they have still been adept at drawing free-kicks, which bodes well for this selection. 

With Fabian Schar and Sven Botman in the treatment room, Eddie Howe is a bit limited on centre-back options at the moment, which means Dan Burn should keep his spot at the back.

After a three-month absence due to an ankle injury, William Osula featured off the bench against Liverpool at the end of January and has been slowly building up his fitness again. With Yoane Wissa picking up a knock in training, this upcoming match against Qarabag could be perfect for Osula to lead the line. 

Osula is a good player to have in the side for Eddie Howe, simply because he gives 100% every time he plays. He is willing to drop deeper at times to get stuck into duels, and he is averaging 3.14 fouls per 90 this season, despite his limited minutes. 

Osula registered one foul against Aston Villa in his recent start in the FA Cup, before being subbed after 62 minutes. Prior to that, he racked up three infringements against League One side Bradford, even though Newcastle recorded just five fouls as a team.

The first leg meeting between these sides produced just one match card from 20 fouls, 10 committed by each side. I think Newcastle running away with the game contributed to the low card count, and I can see it rising in the second leg despite it not expected to be a competitive contest.

Newcastle are priced at 1.57 to pick up a single card in this clash, which in itself is a pretty generous price for a single caution. This would have landed in the first leg with Thiaw picking up a card late on, and the referee appointment for this clash offers promise for at least three match cards in this clash.

Davide Massa is expected to take charge of this game, and he’s been a bit loose with his cards in the Champions League this term, handing out 13 yellow cards across his four appointments (3.25 per game). He’s also handed out three red cards across these games, and is awarding 25 fouls per game.

Massa’s record in Serie A this season also offers promise for a decent card count in this tie. He’s handed out 45 yellow cards across his 11 appointments in Serie A this term - working out to an average of 4.09 cards per game.

With Bodo Glimt carrying a two-goal advantage from the first leg, every sign points to an absolute siege here. While the visitors may get their occasional chances to relieve pressure on the counter attack, they are likely to be under the cosh for the duration of 90 minutes. 

Indeed, when Atletico Madrid needed a win against Bodo on home turf, they racked up 12 corners and 27 shots. The visitors have conceded 7+ corners in every single Champions League away match this season, working out at an average of 9.25 corners per game.

While Bodo are typically quite an aggressive side, and incredibly brave off the ball, there will probably be a slight change in their approach given their two-goal advantage. I can see them playing deeper and looking to soak up more pressure than usual. Inter will have the tools to keep them boxed in for extended spells of the match, and this should create the necessary ingredients for corners.

Dimarco typically plays at left wing-back, and while he provides a real creative threat on that side of the pitch, he also generates a goal threat by arriving in the box late. His positioning on the pitch is often more reflective of a winger or attacking midfielder, and this is why he’s able to unleash such a high volume of shots.

Inter Milan are likely to be ultra-attacking on Tuesday evening, and this will give Dimarco license to be extremely aggressive and advanced with his positioning. Di Marco has been averaging 2.84 shots per game 90 in the Champions League this season, with an average of 1.14 of those shots hitting the target per 90. Four out of his last five Champions League matches have ended with him having at least a shot on target. 

There’s a very logical trail of reasoning to believe he’ll have a shot on target on Tuesday night, and I think this is handsomely priced as a bet builder addition. 

Thuram should be a major focal point in Inter Milan’s attack tomorrow; there will be an emphasis on providing him with ammunition in the final third. His shooting numbers across the season have been statistically significant; he is averaging 3.64 shots per 90 in Serie A, but 4.44 shots per 90 in the Champions League. 

If we understand the circumstances and ramifications behind the match on Tuesday evening, it’s plausible to think Thuram could easily take on 6+ shots, consequently increasing the likelihood of him finding the net. The Inter Milan frontman has scored nine goals across Serie A and the Champions League this season. 

However, he’s not just a goalscoring threat; playing in a front two often gives him the chance to take on a creative role as well. He’s also managed four assists across Serie A and the Champions League. It’s going to be a huge challenge for Bodo Glimt to keep the ball out of the net, and with 13 goal contributions this season, Thuram is a likely candidate to increase that tally.

On paper, 1.36 for 8+ shots on target looks a horrible proposition, but the data is particularly compelling and follows a near constant trend. Across Bodo Glimt’s four Champions League away games this season, they’ve conceded 8, 9, 11, and 11 shots on target. This produces a monumental average of 9.75 shots on target per game. 

These shots on target numbers come as no surprise; Bodo Glimt have been conceding an average of 24.5 shots across those four games. The visitors may have somehow found a way to beat Atletico away from home, but defending doesn’t look like their strong suit, and I’m apprehensive about their ability to stop Inter from creating high-quality shooting opportunities. 

Based on the bookies' pricing, they think it’s less than even money that Inter will have 26+ shots on Tuesday. If they get anywhere near these numbers, 8+ shots on target will have a plausible chance of landing. All the data points towards a siege for 90 minutes, and this is independent of the fact that Inter are trying to overturn a two-goal deficit. 

Bodo Glimt have been more efficient at limiting their opposition offensively on their artificial pitch, but away games have been a different story. This tie is certainly not over yet, expect chaos.

Taking into account the ramifications going into this game, coupled with the action I saw last week, I think there’s a good chance both teams will score here. Leverkusen were noticeably very dangerous on the counter-attack, they even missed three big chances in the first half. The visitors have to be bold in their approach and push bodies forward, this should leave the necessary spaces for Leverkusen to inflict some damage, Olympiacos were very exposed in behind. 

With Olympiacos trailing 2-0, they’ve got to be proactive and aggressive from the first whistle. This will likely mean Leverkusen are forced to soak up pressure for some extended periods, potentially increasing the likelihood of an Olympiacos goal. There’s certainly enough ability in the Olympiacos forward areas to manufacture a goal, exemplified by their three goals against Real Madrid. Given the collective factors at play, I believe there’s a good chance this could be a very open encounter. 

The Leverkusen front man was in red-hot form last week, scoring both goals against Olympiacos and having three shots on target. His averages in the Champions League have been particularly good, with him averaging 1.90 shots on target per 90.

As already mentioned, Olympiacos will be aggressive in their approach, and this will leave the necessary spaces for Leverkusen's forward players to get into high-quality shooting positions if they can effectively play the ball through the thirds. Schick is likely to occupy positions where he can round off and add the finishing touch to a dangerous counterattack.

Schick has now scored four goals in just 427 Champions League minutes, and he’ll be looking to continue that fantastic goals-to-minutes ratio on Tuesday night. His recent numbers have also been good across all competitions, netting four times in his last four Bayer Leverkusen starts.

The visitors will have to ditch their usual pragmatic approach away from home, pressing higher up the pitch and winning the ball in more advanced areas of the pitch to create pressure. Ultimately, Leverkusen have a two-goal advantage; they will possibly be happy to soak up pressure and strike on the counterattack when handed the opportunities. 

Sacrificing the ball and territory may open up the avenues for Olympiacos corners. The visitors can’t afford to be patient in their approach; they will need to play with attacking intent and impetus from the off. This could definitely generate some early corners before the game has settled into more of a methodical rhythm. The home side have now conceded 3+ corners in seven of their last eight home matches.

The general averages, in addition to Olympiacos’ bolder approach, should create the situations on the pitch that increase the likelihood of corners.

I’ve got a feeling the circumstances will play into Leverkusen’s hands here, they will be able to pick their moments on the counter attack and be aggressive in transition, their home advantage will also be another beneficial factor. 

Once again, accounting for the game last week, Leverkusen were able to counter attack effectively against a forward-thinking Olympiacos side, and this created high-quality shooting opportunities. Leverkusen ended up with five shots on target from just eight shots. Ultimately, when they were getting into advanced areas, they were presented with good opportunities to hit the target. 

Leverkusen have generally been averaging around 5.5 shots on target per home game in the Bundesliga this season; this number drops off very slightly to 5.3 shots on target in the Champions League. If the hosts can get somewhere in the region of their usual numbers, 3+ saves should have a credible chance of landing.