Tips Hub

In a very congested league table, Espanyol currently sit eight in La Liga with seven points from six games.

They’ve played three games at home, losing one, drawing one and winning one - their loss came at the hands of Real Madrid and even then they gave them a very good run, losing 2-1 to a 90th minute goal.

Elche have just two points and remain winless in La Liga. Both points have come on the road but I don’t see them getting their first three points on the board in this one. Man-for-man, Espanyol have superior quality.

Aguado is the deepest of Elche’s midfield three and is tasked with being an enforcer. He’s averaged a hefty 1.79 fouls per 90 minutes, which is a substantial average when you look at his price.

He’s fouled in three of his four games, only blanking when he played 45 minutes. Again, he’ll be in competition with that Espanyol midfield that was mentioned in the Villar selection.

Elche as a squad have averaged 14.30 fouls per 90 minutes too and I expect this to be an absolute slog, with both sides averaging large foul numbers.

Dolan is the real creative spark for Espanyol. He’s their most direct player, he’s their quickest and best dribbler and he does buy fouls from his opponents.

Dolan has drawn 1.56 fouls per 90 so far this season in La Liga, he’s drawn two or more fouls in a couple of games already this season.

A key point here as well is his opponent, Buba Sangare, a player I’ve backed a couple of times already for fouls.

He’s averaged 1.25 fouls per 90 this season. He’s young and keen but he can be a bit rash.

He’s committed a foul in four of his six games, making two or more in three of those.

I looked at Villar last time out, his numbers across the board are mental. I took him to be fouled last time but the odds for that are so low now that it isn’t worth it, so I’m backing him to make a couple himself.

He loves to get embroiled in a battle. He draws 3.33 fouls per 90 minutes and commits 2.28 on average.

He’s committed two or more fouls in every La Liga game so far this season bar one.

Edu Exposito and Urko Gonzalez will line up on the other side and both combine for above two fouls drawn per 90 minutes.

Chelsea are without a clean sheet across their last 20 Premier League matches.

It’s an issue that’s been present for far longer than Xabi Alonso’s tenure, with Chelsea lacking defensive structure ahead of a trip to a ground where they have historically struggled.

Brentford have made a strong start to the campaign having avoided defeat across their opening four Premier League matches. They’ve scored seven goals across these games, seeing BTTS in each of their last five matches.

This fixture last season produced four goals as Brentford claimed a point against Chelsea in a 2-2 draw. I can’t see Chelsea shoring up their backline ahead of this clash, though they do have the attacking quality to get on the scoresheet. 

Morgan Rogers has made a strong start since signing for Chelsea, registering seven goal contributions across just six appearances - including a goal or an assist in each of his last four matches.

He’s taken 11 shots across his four starts in the Premier League so far (2.84 per 90), seeing four of these efforts find the target (1.03 per 90). 

He’s gelling well with Palmer and Pedro, who are both priced shorter than Rogers for a shot on target in this game - despite Rogers having a pretty similar record so far this season. 

Chelsea have had the joint most shots on target of any side in the Premier League so far this season (6.0 per game) and I’d expect Alonso’s front three to have more attacking success in this clash.

Brentford are very smart with their transfer business, often picking up players who are specialists in a particular area and maximising their strengths alongside other players that big clubs may overlook.

Diouf fits perfectly into this category, he was one of West Ham’s better performers last season and is particularly strong when it comes to crossing - creating 29 chances and recording five assists across just 30 starts from left back.

I’m looking at him in a slightly different area here, his impressive delivery often sees him given licence to push forward but that does put him at risk of committing tactical fouls. He committed 28 fouls for West Ham last season, working out to an average of 0.93 fouls committed per 90.

He’ll be up against Cole Palmer (1.27 fouls won per 90) and Pedro Neto - who looks a much better player operating from wingback in Alonso’s 3-4-3 shape. I can see Diouf being caught high at times and needing to commit tactical fouls to stop Chelsea’s devastating front three.

I’ve watched Emi Martinez quite closely over the last few weeks and come to the conclusion that he’s not a massive upgrade on Rob Sanchez.

That might sound crazy, but it was quite simple to put all of Chelsea’s issues down to one player - this is a side that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in 20 Premier League matches, the wider defensive structure is just as much to blame as Sanchez.

Martinez has played three games for Chelsea so far and has had to make 3+ saves in all of these matches - even against Hull at Stamford Bridge last time out. He was forced into making eight saves in Chelsea’s most recent away game against Arsenal.

The lack of protection afforded to Martinez at the moment is slowly being unearthed as the real issue with Chelsea’s backline. Sanchez did make mistakes, but Martinez has got those in him as well - any keeper that Chelsea field at the moment is going to have to get through a lot of work.

Brentford rank fourth for expected goals and are averaging 4.30 shots on target per game in the Premier League, they have enough quality to cause Martinez issues. 

Chelsea are without a clean sheet across their last 20 Premier League matches.

It’s an issue that’s been present for far longer than Xabi Alonso’s tenure, with Chelsea lacking defensive structure ahead of a trip to a ground where they have historically struggled.

Brentford have made a strong start to the campaign having avoided defeat across their opening four Premier League matches. They’ve scored seven goals across these games, seeing BTTS in each of their last five matches.

This fixture last season produced four goals as Brentford claimed a point against Chelsea in a 2-2 draw. I can’t see Chelsea shoring up their backline ahead of this clash, though they do have the attacking quality to get on the scoresheet. 

Rapid Wien have made a really strong start to the season, winning five of their opening six matches and netting 18 goals in the process.

They’ve won all three of their games at home this term, conceding just one goal across these matches. 12 of their 18 goals have also come in front of their own fans, suggesting that they will be the dominant force here.

Rapid Wien emerged as 4-1 winners when these sides met in this fixture last season, recording an xG of 2.42 from 15 shots to Tirol’s 0.36 xG from just four efforts.

Cole Palmer is back to his best and looks much sharper than he did last season, with his performances aided by a more free role under Xabi Alonso which allows him to be a bit more involved all over the pitch.

Palmer has registered seven goal contributions across his eight appearances already this season, hitting double digits for either goals or assists in each of his previous three seasons at Chelsea. 

Even last year, Palmer came away with 19 goal contributions across 40 appearances in what was widely regarded as a below par season for Chelsea’s number 10. He’s got Rogers and Pedro supporting him now too, setting up the latter against Hull at Stamford Bridge last time out.

13/14 Championship games this season involving Birmingham and Middlesbrough have seen BTTS land.

Both of these sides have made decent starts to the campaign with both only losing one of their opening seven matches. 

The four point gap that exists between the teams is down to Birmingham being unable to kill off matches - drawing the joint most games of any side in the Championship (4). 

Middlesbrough saw four goals against Millwall last time out as they came from two goals down to earn a point in front of their own fans. They’ve seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches, seeing 24 goals in total across their seven Championship matches (3.42 per game).

This is an important game for Chris Davies, who is still under pressure as Birmingham boss - they’ve seen 19 goals across their seven Championship games this term (2.71 per game).

This bet has landed in 5/6 Luton games in League One so far this season.

Bradford have scored in five of their opening six in the league, and currently sit 3rd, just one point off Sheffield Wednesday at the top.

Both encounters between the sides last season saw this bet land, with both matches ending 2-1 to the home team.

According to the xG data, Bradford could have scored and conceded more than they actually have, so a regression to the mean would work in our favour for this bet.

Luton have recovered from a slightly concerning start to the campaign, but the longer they linger outside the play-off places the more the pressure will build up on Jack Wilshere in the dugout.

Cambridge are one place above Oxford, in 4th, and have seen BTTS in every game so far this season.

The visitors have scored two or more goals in each of their last three games and are at 1.83 goals for per game for the season. 

Nine of 11 League One games involving Oxford and Cambridge this season have seen both teams find the net.

Both sides have been overperforming their xG in defence, with Cambridge conceding nine from 10.2 and Oxford six from 8.40.

A regression to the mean in terms of keeping goals out would work in our favour for this bet.

This is the 2nd-highest rated game for Both Teams to Score on my Saturday Goals Sheet with a rating of 8.10.

York have been a great addition to the EFL, they’ve seen 3.50 total goals per game so far, scoring 2.17 themselves and seeing BTTS land in 5/6 and all three of their league away games.

Chesterfield are unbeaten in four, winning their last two, coming into this, and they’ve seen BTTS land in 4/6 in League Two.

They’ve scored two or more goals in their last two league outings, while York laid a marker down with a 4-0 win over Swindon last weekend.

These two sides both earned promotion to the Eredivisie from the Eerste Divisie last season, and have struggled to match the quality of the division with Cambuur only winning one of their opening six matches - while Den Haag are yet to pick up three points, losing five of their six games.

There’s real defensive issues for both sides as well, Cambuur have conceded 18 goals across their six games so far (3.0 per game), and have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches - only keeping a shutout against Nijmegen last time out. They came away 2-1 winners when the sides last met, with that game seeing 30 shots.

Den Haag have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, only failing to score against Twente last time out during this run. They have conceded 16 goals across their six games (2.66 per game) and will surely be looking at this game as a must win given that it is likely to be a relegation six pointer. 

My Goals Sheet’s top game for BTTS on Saturday is Sion v Zurich, with a rating of 8.55.

13/16 Swiss Super League games involving Sion and Zurich this season have seen both teams find the net.

Sion have scored two or more goals in each of their last four games, three or more in three of those, and they’ve also conceded a first half goal in three of those four.

Each of the last five meetings between the teams have seen this bet land.

Zurich have scored twice or more in each of their last four games, and they have conceded a first half goal in two of their last three.

No side saw BTTS more often than Monaco in Ligue 1 last season, seeing goals at both ends in nearly 70% of their matches.

They’ve seen BTTS in each of their last two matches ahead of this clash against Strasbourg and PSG, with only two clean sheets in their six matches across all competitions.

Both league meetings between these sides last season saw BTTS, with the most recent meeting producing five goals as Monaco came away 3-2 winners over Lens with both sides posting a healthy xG (1.79-1.70).

Lens have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, most recently contesting a 2-2 draw against a newly promoted Le Mans side on the road. 

Groningen have made a hectic start to the season, winning two of their opening six matches and seeing 25 goals across these games (4.16 per game).

They’ve seen BTTS in all six of these matches, most recently earning a point on the road against Go Ahead Eagles in a 1-1 draw but not without conceding an xG of 3.50 from 25 shots.

Zwolle conceded seven goals at home against Feyenoord last time out, winning just one of their opening six matches. They held Groningen to two draws in the Eredivisie last season, with BTTS landing in both matches.

The most recent clash between the sides saw both teams register an xG of 2.0 or higher (2.55-2.48), suggesting that this will be a meeting that produces chances at both ends.

Chelsea are without a clean sheet across their last 20 Premier League matches.

It’s an issue that’s been present for far longer than Xabi Alonso’s tenure, with Chelsea lacking defensive structure ahead of a trip to a ground where they have historically struggled.

Brentford have made a strong start to the campaign having avoided defeat across their opening four Premier League matches. They’ve scored seven goals across these games, seeing BTTS in each of their last five matches.

This fixture last season produced four goals as Brentford claimed a point against Chelsea in a 2-2 draw. I can’t see Chelsea shoring up their backline ahead of this clash, though they do have the attacking quality to get on the scoresheet. 

Cole Palmer is back to his best and looks much sharper than he did last season, with his performances aided by a more free role under Xabi Alonso which allows him to be a bit more involved all over the pitch.

Palmer has registered seven goal contributions across his eight appearances already this season, hitting double digits for either goals or assists in each of his previous three seasons at Chelsea. 

Even last year, Palmer came away with 19 goal contributions across 40 appearances in what was widely regarded as a below par season for Chelsea’s number 10. He’s got Rogers and Pedro supporting him now too, setting up the latter against Hull at Stamford Bridge last time out.

Fofana has already picked up one yellow card in the Premier League this season across his three appearances, and I think he’ll be in a real battle here with Igor Thiago.

Fofana has never quite managed to put together a run of form at Chelsea, but it does look like Xabi Alonso values his speed in his 3-4-3 shape - but Fofana has always been a bit petulant, like the majority of this young Chelsea squad.

Fofana collected five yellow cards and two red cards across just 20 Premier League appearances last season, averaging 1.41 fouls committed per 90. He also collected seven yellow cards across just 14 appearances the season prior, so this is a player who has always struggled with discipline.

Vitaly Janelt hasn’t traditionally been a player that I’ve kept an eye on for a high foul count, but he’s had loads of defensive work to get through this season in partnering Sangare who has been a standout performer for the Bees so far.

Janelt has committed nine fouls across his four starts in the Premier League this term (2.25 per 90), also averaging 13.8 defensive contributions per 90. Janelt only averaged 1.25 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League last season, so there has been a significant rise at the start of this campaign - suggesting that Janelt may have a slightly different role for Brentford this year.

There are plenty of players that Janelt may have to bring down here, Chelsea’s front three are all really strong when it comes to winning fouls and also all like to drop into pockets in midfield, which is the perfect area of the pitch to test Janelt and draw a few fouls from the German. 

Dunfermline can continue their upturn in form by claiming victory away at Morton in the Scottish Championship on Saturday.

Having made a slow start, Neil Lennon’s side appear to be building some momentum after avoiding defeat in each of their last three league matches.

The Pars have picked up seven points during that run, recording two victories, including last weekend’s 2-0 success against Queen’s Park.

They will now view Saturday’s trip to Greenock to face bottom-of-the-table Morton as a prime opportunity to put another three points on the board.

The Ton are a club in turmoil both on and off the pitch and have taken just one point from their opening six league matches.

Three of their five defeats have come at home, including last weekend’s 4-1 hammering by Livingston, so an improving Dunfermline side look capable of collecting another three points at Cappielow.

I think Dundee can make life difficult for Motherwell on Saturday, which is why I’m backing the hosts to score at least once.

It has been a mixed start to the season for the Dark Blues, who have recorded two wins, one draw and three defeats.

However, Steven Pressley’s side have carried plenty of attacking threat, scoring in five of their six league games this season.

Their only blank came away at Celtic, with Dundee finding the net in each of their last five league matches, including games against both Hibernian and Hearts.

They will certainly smell blood against a Motherwell side that have lost their last two league games and arrive at Dens Park following a 4-0 hammering at home to Aberdeen on Tuesday night.

The Steelmen also shipped three goals in a recent road game at St Mirren, further strengthening the case for Dundee to strike at least once on Saturday.

Wrexham will be eager for a response following their 6-0 loss to West Ham last time out, which was their biggest ever defeat under Phil Parkinson.

The visit of Southampton is a testing one, but Wrexham will be drawn to the fact that the Saints have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last eight matches - only keeping one shutout so far this term, which came against Colchester in the EFL Cup.

Both league meetings between these sides last season saw BTTS, with Southampton coming away 5-1 winners in this fixture. That thrashing saw both sides record a healthy xG (1.25-2.35) and the meeting at St Mary’s saw similar underlying numbers (4.14-1.88). 

These two sides both earned promotion to the Eredivisie from the Eerste Divisie last season, and have struggled to match the quality of the division with Cambuur only winning one of their opening six matches - while Den Haag are yet to pick up three points, losing five of their six games.

There’s real defensive issues for both sides as well, Cambuur have conceded 18 goals across their six games so far (3.0 per game), and have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches - only keeping a shutout against Nijmegen last time out. They came away 2-1 winners when the sides last met, with that game seeing 30 shots.

Den Haag have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, only failing to score against Twente last time out during this run. They have conceded 16 goals across their six games (2.66 per game) and will surely be looking at this game as a must win given that it is likely to be a relegation six pointer. 

I think Alaves are at a really nice price here to get something from this game having avoided defeat in four of their six matches so far - netting 11 goals across these matches (1.83 per game).

Alaves scored in both head to head meetings between these sides in LaLiga last season, netting twice when the sides met back in May. They’ve scored in all but one of their league games so far this term, and face off against an Athletic Club side who have actually picked up three points fewer than their opponents, despite being favourites here.

Alaves rank sixth for expected goals in LaLiga, and are also averaging 5.20 shots on target per game. We are looking for them to find the back of the net just once here, which looks likely given how impressive they’ve been in forward areas so far this season.

Both of these sides have made decent starts to the campaign with both only losing one of their opening seven matches. 

The four point gap that exists between the teams is down to Birmingham being unable to kill off matches - drawing the joint most games of any side in the Championship (4). 

Middlesbrough saw four goals against Millwall last time out as they came from two goals down to earn a point in front of their own fans. They’ve seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches, seeing 24 goals in total across their seven Championship matches (3.42 per game).

This is an important game for Chris Davies, who is still under pressure as Birmingham boss - they’ve seen 19 goals across their seven Championship games this term (2.71 per game).

Hamilton can heap more misery on Queen of the South by claiming all three points at home on Saturday. 

The visitors come into this clash bottom of the table and will have to pick themselves up off the canvas after suffering a crushing 8-0 defeat away at Ross County on Tuesday night.

That latest body blow means the Doonhamers have now come away empty-handed from five of their opening seven league games.

With confidence bound to be fragile, Hamilton can take advantage. 

The Accies are keeping pace with Ross County at the top of the table, sitting second and level on points with the Staggies.

Indeed, Darian MacKinnon’s men remain unbeaten after taking maximum points from five of their opening six league games, including victories in each of their last two.

Back the Accies to pile further pain on a beleaguered Queen of the South side.

Ross County have made a flying start to life in Scottish League One and should have too much for Cove Rangers on Saturday.

The Staggies sit top of the table after collecting 16 points from their opening six matches, winning five and drawing one.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side underlined their title credentials on Tuesday night by demolishing Queen of the South 8-0 in Dingwall.

That emphatic victory should send confidence soaring ahead of this weekend’s trip to Balmoral Stadium.

As for Cove, they sit second from bottom after losing four of their opening seven league games, including a 2-1 defeat at Montrose last weekend.

Paul Hartley’s side now face a Ross County squad built for Championship football, and that gulf in quality should ultimately tell.

Dunfermline can continue their upturn in form by claiming victory away at Morton in the Scottish Championship on Saturday.

Having made a slow start, Neil Lennon’s side appear to be building some momentum after avoiding defeat in each of their last three league matches.

The Pars have picked up seven points during that run, recording two victories, including last weekend’s 2-0 success against Queen’s Park.

They will now view Saturday’s trip to Greenock to face bottom-of-the-table Morton as a prime opportunity to put another three points on the board.

The Ton are a club in turmoil both on and off the pitch and have taken just one point from their opening six league matches.

Three of their five defeats have come at home, including last weekend’s 4-1 hammering by Livingston, so an improving Dunfermline side look capable of collecting another three points at Cappielow.

I fancy Falkirk to score at least once away at St Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday.

John McGlynn has overseen a huge rebuilding job at the Falkirk Stadium over the summer, but there are signs that his new-look side are beginning to click into gear.

The Bairns will arrive at McDiarmid Park after claiming their first league win of the season with a well-deserved 2-1 victory over Hearts on Tuesday night.

Prior to that, they battled to a 1-1 draw away at Dundee United and pushed both Celtic and Rangers close in 2-1 defeats, notably finding the net at Celtic Park.

That midweek victory should have lifted spirits in the camp, so Falkirk look well placed to cause St Johnstone problems on Saturday.

The Saints have adapted reasonably well to life back in the top flight, collecting seven points from their opening six matches.

However, they have yet to keep a clean sheet, so the Bairns can make the net bulge at least once.

I think Dundee can make life difficult for Motherwell on Saturday, which is why I’m backing the hosts to score at least once.

It has been a mixed start to the season for the Dark Blues, who have recorded two wins, one draw and three defeats.

However, Steven Pressley’s side have carried plenty of attacking threat, scoring in five of their six league games this season.

Their only blank came away at Celtic, with Dundee finding the net in each of their last five league matches, including games against both Hibernian and Hearts.

They will certainly smell blood against a Motherwell side that have lost their last two league games and arrive at Dens Park following a 4-0 hammering at home to Aberdeen on Tuesday night.

The Steelmen also shipped three goals in a recent road game at St Mirren, further strengthening the case for Dundee to strike at least once on Saturday.

Morgan Gibbs-White has been given a more advanced role since Oliver Glasner arrived at Nottingham Forest. He operates closer to his centre forward, and has already contributed a goal and two assists this season from four league starts. He has also landed this selection in three of those games. 

Gibbs-White’s shot data at the City Ground is incredibly consistent. He had an average of 2.9 shots per 90 across all competitions at home last season, during which he scored ten goals. Coventry remain pointless in the Premier League so far, with four straight losses, so this looks like an excellent matchup for Gibbs-White to capitalise.

Mohamed Belloumi finds himself in a rich vein of form after scoring twice against Chelsea last weekend. The Algerian international found the back of the net twice in the first-half alone, helping his side earn a valiant point at Stamford Bridge. 

Belloumi has been starting on the right wing for the Tigers, but he is given plenty of freedom to roam around and pick up central position. He is allowed to play further up the field rather than dropping deep, which also makes Belloumi a threat in transition. That could be useful as Hull are unlikely to dominate possession at St James’ Park. 

Mohamed-Ali Cho has been Belloumi’s replacement off the bench in the last few Hull games, and he has been active in the final third. The SuperSub rule makes this angle look even more appealing.

Luka Vuskovic has recorded a shot in every Premier League appearance this season, which is impressive consistency for a centre back. The Croatian international is not afraid to try his luck from range, especially when opponents back off to allow space to open up. He has the technique to strike the ball cleanly, and Fabian Hurzeler seems to be happy with his defenders taking speculative efforts. 

Vuskovic is also one of Brighton’s main threats from set pieces, as his height and physicality make him a target from corners and wide free-kicks. The 19-year-old had an average of 1.18 shots per 90 for Hamburg last season in the Bundesliga - he converted a penalty and even scored from a free-kick.

Julio Enciso has accounted for over a third of Ipswich’s total shots in their opening four matches of the season.

The Paraguayan international has racked up 14 efforts, including six shots with two on target when he played against Liverpool at Anfield a couple of weeks ago. Enciso will return to play on Merseyside this weekend, and he looks set to start in an advanced midfield position. 

Ten of his 14 shots this season have come from outside the box, which shows how he doesn’t usually hesitate to let fly from distance. Enciso is also likely to be the designated free-kick and penalty taker for the Tractor Boys.

It hasn’t been an optimal start to the season for Aston Villa, but Emi Buendia has put in some positive performances. He scored against Club Brugge in the Champions League, recording a total of five shots as Villa won 3-2. Buendia has been operating in an advanced midfield position, regularly putting him in promising positions in the final third. 

Buendia has an excellent record against Tottenham, and he scored in all three fixtures against them last season. That includes the winning goal in this league fixture at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium back in October last year, so he has every reason to be looking forward to this fixture.

I’ve long been a defender of Nicolas Jackson and can see him having joy here against a Tottenham side that look a bit all over the place at the moment.

Jackson has scored one goal for Aston Villa so far, with that goal coming in the Champions League as Unai Emery’s side recorded a routine victory over Club Brugge - that saw Jackson manage two shots on target.

Some of you will remember the hat trick that Jackson scored at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for Chelsea a few years ago, so he has positive memories of the ground as he looks for his first Premier League goal for Aston Villa.

There’s definitely a discussion to be had about how clinical Jackson is in front of goal, but what is undeniable is how often he gets in dangerous areas - averaging 1.88 shots on target per 90 and scoring eight goals in 12 starts for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last term. 

Bentancur has always been a player for me that has a lot more talent than he’s shown during his time in the Premier League, particularly his ability on the ball which is often overlooked.

Bentancur has committed eight fouls across just three starts in the Premier League already this season (2.50 per 90), with this high foul count mainly being a result of Bentancur having to make tactical fouls to protect Tottenham’s backline, which looks really vulnerable.

He lines up against the most fouled side in the Premier League across each of the last two seasons, with his direct opponent likely to be Emi Buendia - who has become a key player in this Aston Villa side and is averaging 1.72 fouls won per 90.

I backed this angle in Villa’s win over Coventry in the EFL Cup during the week and it sailed in on that occasion with McGinn winning four fouls as Villa came away 3-1 winners.

McGinn has already won 13 fouls across just four starts in the Premier League this season (3.32 per 90). He was hauled down 48 times across 28 starts in the Premier League last season (2.00 per 90), so this is clearly a consistent part of his game that can come to the fore here against an aggressive Tottenham side. 

McGinn faced off against Tottenham twice last season, drawing at least one foul in both games. He was fouled twice in Villa’s win over Tottenham in the FA Cup, and that aggression from the home side is likely to reach similar levels given that they’re averaging 14.3 fouls committed per game.

These sides met three times last season, with all three matches ending in a 2-1 victory for Aston Villa. In fact, each of the last four head to head meetings between the sides in North London have seen 3+ goals.

Both sides saw 3+ goals in their League Cup matches during the week, with Villa covering this line on their own as they came away 3-1 winners over Coventry while Tottenham faced another defeat against Liverpool - but did post an xG of 2.24 from 17 shots.

I don’t trust either of these backlines at the moment, and have seen enough from Tottenham’s underlying numbers to know that goals will eventually come for De Zerbi’s side.

Saka in particular has been Arsenal’s standout attacking player so far this season, and he has looked back to his best. He is averaging 3.02 fouls drawn per 90 this campaign, which is amongst the higher in the squad.

Saka also ranks at the top of the Arsenal charts for shots - the winger is averaging 4.29 shots per 90, and he has landed this selection in all five starts across all competitions.

That includes four shots with three on target against Sunderland last weekend. Saka has bagged three goals in four Premier League starts this campaign, and he will hope to exploit Brighton’s backline who have shown vulnerabilities against the top sides.

Brighton have been involved in some high-scoring encounters already this season - a 3-2 win against Man United midweek, a 4-3 loss against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, along with 4-0 and 5-0 wins against Aston Villa and Coventry, respectively. They have been an entertaining side to watch, full of life in the final third, and they are averaging 6.14 corners per game. 

Arsenal will be Brighton’s toughest matchup of the campaign so far, but Fabian Hurzeler’s men aren’t likely to sit back and absorb pressure. They should still be front-footed, looking to forge out chances and retain possession for spells, which makes this corner price stand out.

With that being said, Brighton will have to be tighter at the back, as Arsenal have been in dominant form this campaign. The Gunners have won all seven of their matches across all competitions, with five clean sheets in that stretch. They have maintained their momentum after lifting the Premier League title last season, and Arsenal have also drawn at least two cards in six of their seven games. 

Meanwhile, Brighton are averaging 2.0 cards per game across all competitions, and the only games they have failed to land this selection was against Coventry and Tromso. The Seagulls won those games by an aggregate score of 9-0, and this upcoming clash against Arsenal won’t be anywhere near as easy.

On the opposite side, Arsenal will have to be wary of Charalampos Kostoulas. The Greek international opened his Premier League account against Coventry last weekend, finishing from close range as Brighton ran out 5-0 winners.

He followed that up by scoring against Man United midweek, helping his side secure an unlikely comeback. The 19-year-old was a constant threat at Old Trafford, and he seems to be playing at full confidence.

This is a tough matchup for Kostoulas but he will be eager to leave his mark, and he doesn’t usually hesitate to shoot when the space opens up. He is averaging 4.37 shots per 90 across all competitions this season. 

Pascal Gross has been a valuable part of Brighton’s midfield this season, and he has chipped in with three goals and two assists in his last four appearances alone. Against Arsenal, however, the German international looks set for a much larger role defensively. He has been playing at the base of Brighton’s midfield this season, so has regularly contributed to foul counts. 

Gross has committed exactly two fouls in each of his last three appearances, already picking up two yellow cards during the opening weeks of the campaign. He will now have to deal with the likes of Bukayo Saka, Christos Tzolis and Kai Havertz, which promises to be a tough task.

Bristol City’s corner numbers have been huge so far this season, in terms of both how many they get and how many they concede.

Their home matches have averaged a whopping 14 corners with every game having at least 12.

They’ve earned an average of 7.33 in those matches and this selection has landed in 67% of their home games.

Watford have conceded an average of 6.67 corners in their away matches and have conceded five or more in all of them.

This looks an absolute steal of a price at 1.91 at the time of writing.

Knight has averaged 1.29 fouls per 90 minutes this season - not the kind of average you’d associate with that price.

I think it could be down to his low average last season but in previous years, he’s regularly sat around 1.00 fouls per 90, or even higher in his time at Derby.

Knight didn’t foul in either of his first two games this season but since then he has made a foul in six straight games, he also made two against Lincoln last time out and three against Portsmouth earlier in the season.

Following on from the above, Jason Knight will also be up against Iker Bravo, who is Watford’s most fouled player. Bravo has been fouled 13 times (2.14 per 90), six times more than any other Watford player.

He is crucial to Watford's success and is a real focal point of their side. He’s been fouled in every single game so far in both the Championship and EFL Cup, he’s also drawn 2+ fouls in five of those seven matches.

When you match up Knight’s fouls committed numbers with Bravo’s fouls drawn, these two go hand-in-hand.

Tolaj has been extremely busy since his summer move to Bristol City. He’s committed more fouls than any other player by a mile, he’s the second most fouled, he’s had the most shots and most shots on target - so you know he’ll be highly involved.

He’s been fouled 10 times so far, an average of 1.72 times per 90 minutes.

He was impeded three times in the weekend defeat to Lincoln City. His eagerness to commit fouls can often lead to players biting back, he made five fouls in that match and felt the retaliation from The Imps players.

I don’t get why Roberto De Zerbi hasn’t been starting Mateus Fernandes in every game so far, I really rate the former West Ham man and I’ve liked what I’ve seen from him in the minutes he has played so far.

Fernandes has picked up a yellow card already this season, coming off the bench against Nottingham Forest to be cautioned inside just seven minutes of action. He faces up against the most fouled side in the Premier League over the last two seasons, who drew five cards from Tottenham when the sides last met.

Fernandes collected seven yellow cards across 35 starts in the Premier League last season, more than any other West Ham player, and also collected eight yellow cards the season prior - showing a consistency across recent seasons when it comes to cautions.

McGinn has already picked up two yellow cards across four starts in the Premier League, committing five fouls in these matches (1.28 per 90).

This early record would suggest that the challenges that McGinn has been putting in tend to be quite reckless, or are tactical fouls that would lead to cautions. 

He’s now one of the more senior players in this Villa side, and his early card record would suggest that he’s trying to act in a leadership role and improve Villa’s early poor form.

McGinn picked up five yellow cards in the Premier League last season, so he’s already quite close to matching his tally from last year - which I think is quite reflective of the issues that Aston Villa have faced early on this year. 

Emi Buendia is now one of Aston Villa’s most important players following the departure of Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins - those two were Villa’s top scorers last season, with Buendia sitting behind them on six goals.

Buendia registered 20 goal contributions across his 54 appearances for Aston Villa last season (11 goals, 9 assists) so he’s clearly capable of being a threat for Unai Emery’s side against a Tottenham side that he scored against in all three head to head meetings last season.

3.1 is a really nice price for Buendia to come away with a goal contribution here, he clearly likes playing against Tottenham having netted in all three meetings between the teams last season - and acting as Villa’s main goal threat now that Watkins and Rogers have left the club. 

Zak Sturge has picked up one yellow card so far this season and will have the near impossible task of trying to keep Jarrod Bowen quiet here.

Sturge collected eight yellow cards and one red card across 29 starts in the Championship last season, averaging 1.29 fouls committed per 90 and 6.51 defensive contributions per 90. 

I think Alex Neil will have a specific plan in place for Bowen, he’s already registered seven goal contributions this season so it’s clear that he’s West Ham’s biggest attacking threat - and he’s also strong when it comes to winning fouls.

Bowen has won eight fouls so far this term (1.16 per 90), and was fouled 49 times in the Premier League last season (1.30 per 90). Sturge is bound to have multiple 1v1 duels with West Ham’s star man, and the occasion should see the bar set pretty low for cautions.

I’ve been impressed with Mukasa in the Championship so far, he’s started five games and has collected one yellow card across these matches.

I think Mukasa may get drawn into the occasion here, he’s only 19 and will line up in central midfield - putting him right at the heart of the action in what is expected to be an intense and aggressive match.

Mukasa didn’t feature much for Leicester in the Championship last season, but did collect one yellow card across his 10 starts - as well as collecting two cards across seven starts in the development division.

I expect Millwall to set up in a similar fashion to their draw against Middlesbrough last time out, looking to make the most of transition and benefit from the speed of Arconte - who could cause West Ham real issues when the home side can counter. 

Ipswich have been involved in several high-scoring matches since returning to the Premier League. This selection has landed in three of their opening four league fixtures, including a 5-2 defeat against Man United and last weekend’s 3-2 victory over Crystal Palace.

This selection has only failed against Liverpool in a 2-0 defeat at Portman Road, but Ipswich were unlucky not to find the back of the net in that game, given that they forced five saves from Allison. 

The Tractor Boys have looked strong in the final third, and they haven’t struggled with creating chances. However, their defensive structure has let them down at times. Ipswich have conceded 12 goals in their six matches across all competitions this season.

Based on that record, the Everton forwards should be looking forward to this matchup. The Toffees are averaging 5.33 corners per game this season across all competitions, and they have landed this selection in four of those matches.

The two misses finished on exactly four corners, which shows how Everton have consistently been able to generate opportunities. David Moyes likes his side to utilise width, and look to cross the ball into the box at every available opportunity.

They have been quick when it comes to transitioning from defence into attack, which explains why Everton are averaging 17.3 shots per game this season, with just over a third of those hitting the target.

On the opposite side, Julio Enciso looks set to start in the number ten role. The Paraguay international has started all four Premier League matches, and he is perhaps Ipswich’s most in-form player at the moment, contributing two assists.

He has also racked up 14 shots, averaging 3.7 per 90. Of those 14 efforts, ten have come from outside the box, which shows how he doesn’t usually wait to pull the trigger once the space opens up. 

Ipswich have struggled to exert much control on their games this season, but Enciso has proven how effective he can be on the break, and he is also likely to be responsible for taking free-kicks this weekend. 

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is another player who O’Shea will have to look out for, as he often tends to drift out to the left wing. He has been Everton’s standout performer during the opening weeks of the season, and he is averaging 1.36 fouls drawn per 90, landing this bet in three out of six starts. 

The main focus here is on his matchup against an aggressive Ipswich midfield. Sasa Lukic and Exequiel Palacios partnered up against Crystal Palace last time out, and they accounted for five out of 16 infringements for the Eagles in total. Dewsbury-Hall will occupy the same zone of the field as those two, so he should have to deal with plenty of pressure.

After making his first start of the season against Wolves midweek, Jack Grealish could return to the starting lineup against Ipswich here. The England international remains one of the most effective players in the league at drawing contact, and he was fouled four times in the EFL Cup last time out. If Grealish starts, it’s the ideal opportunity to target Dara O’Shea fouls. 

The 27-year-old has been playing at right back this season, which is away from his usual position in the centre. He has looked a bit uncomfortable at times, and O’Shea racked up three fouls against Man United in gameweek two, when playing up against Marcus Rashford. This looks like an even more challenging matchup for O’Shea at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Bobby Thomas has drawn seven fouls in his four starts at the back for Coventry this season in the Premier League, landing this selection in every start. The central defender has had plenty of work to do, as the Sky Blues are yet to pick up a point in the league, and they were also beaten by Aston Villa last time out. 

Thomas should find duels against Liam Delap this weekend, as the former Chelsea man has quickly settled into a starting role for his new club. He has committed three fouls in his two starts, earning a booking against Aston Villa last weekend. He likes to be physical and make life difficult for opposing defenders, so Thomas should have plenty of involvement.

Mohamed Belloumi has started the season strong, with two goals and one assist under his belt across from Hull’s opening four Premier League matches.

He has landed this selection in three of those games, including two fouls against Man United in gameweek one. In addition to that, Belloumi is averaging 2.86 tackles per game in the Premier League, which highlights his defensive contributions. He is willing to help out his fullback at times, and is often the one leading the press from the front. 

Belloumi should find duels directly against Lewis Hall, who is excellent at drawing contact. The fullback sees plenty of the ball for Newcastle, and he has been fouled nine times in his last five starts across all competitions.

Thierno Barry has drawn five fouls across his four Premier League starts this season, landing this selection in every match. That includes two fouls drawn against Man United, and one foul drawn in the following game against Tottenham.

Barry has been playing with more confidence this season, entrusted by David Moyes to be the clear number one option up front, and the striker has shown more of a willingness to get on the ball. 

He will find duels against the likes of Sasa Lukic and Exequiel Palacios - two strong defensive midfielders who will have to try and limit space for Barry. Ipswich racked up 16 fouls against Crystal Palace last time out, and their midfield duo accounted for five of those infringements.

Olivier Boscagli has shown his versatility this season, operating at left back and in midfield so far. The Frenchman is perhaps more suited to playing at centre back, and that has shown at times - Boscagli committed four fouls and was booked against Chelsea, before adding another three infringements against Coventry, despite Brighton winning that game 5-0. 

Boscagli looks set to start at left back this weekend, which will put him directly up against Bukayo Saka. The winger is averaging 3.06 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and he has been the dangerman for the Gunners in the final third. Boscagli should have plenty of defensive work to get through here.

Joao Gomes is available again after serving the three match suspension he picked up for a red card on his Aston Villa debut. The Brazilian international was dismissed after only 40 minutes against Brighton for kicking out, but he had already landed this selection with two infringements. 

Prior to that, he racked up four fouls against PSG in the Super Cup final, and three fouls against Club Brugge in the Champions League. Joao Gomes has committed at least two fouls, and been carded in all three appearances for Aston Villa since joining from Wolves. It’s fair to say he hasn’t quite adapted to life under Unai Emery just yet.

You’d struggle to pick out a more in-form player on the planet right now. Raphinha has moved into the number nine position for Barcelona this season and he’s been absolutely brilliant.

Raphinha has nine goals and three assists in six games and comes into this off the back of a hat-trick against Racing Santander.

He’s averaged 2.47 shots on target per 90 minutes this season. He’s landed this selection in four of his seven matches in all competitions. One of his blanks he was an early sub.

He’s also the primary penalty taker for Barcelona now and they’ve already been awarded four this season.

Suazo will be lining up at left-back for Sevilla. He’s played every minute for them so far and averaged 1.83 fouls per 90 minutes.

It is very much a feast or famine with the Chilean. He has committed 11 fouls already this season but they’ve come in just three matches. He made five against Atleti, four against Vallecano and two against La Coruna.

The key here is his opponent will be Lamine Yamal. You don’t need me to tell you how dangerous he is. Yamal has drawn an average of 1.67 fouls per 90 minutes so far in La Liga and was impeded three times against Vallecano in the last match.

This is a really nice price for a player who’s averaged 1.60 fouls so far this season and ranks second in the Sevilla rankings for fouls committed.

He has made a foul in four of his five La LIga matches, he racked up four against Valencia.

Salas operates at the heart of Sevilla’s defence, so he’ll be tasked with keeping tabs on their frontline and you can make a case for any to draw a foul.

Barca’s forward line draw incredible numbers, whether it’s starters, subs or possible rotation with Adeyemi (3.08), Yamal (1.67), Fermin (1.46), Olmo (1.43), Gordon (0.88) & Raphinha (0.75).

Again, this looks like a very good price. It’ll be based on the caliber of opponent and the fact that Barca’s average fouls aren’t super high, especially for La Liga but at 9.33 it’s workable in this selection.

Sierra has drawn an average of 2.39 fouls per 90 minutes in La Liga this season and the 22 year-old has been fouled at least once in all of his six La Liga appearances.

Also, he’ll be up against Joao Cancelo. Cancelo’s average fouls are high at 1.52 per 90 minutes. He started last week for the first time in the league and committed two fouls.

The key here is that Pubill will be up against Vinicius Junior. Vini is the most fouled player in La Liga this season, he’s already been fouled 22 times, a rate of 3.93 fouls per 90 minutes in La Liga this season.

Most full-backs struggle against Vini, and Pubill has struggled against similar wingers this season. He made three fouls against Liverpool and Bilbao, when faced with Ngumoah and Williams, two players with very high dribbling volume.

Pubill has averaged 1.25 fouls per 90 this season and has committed a foul in all bar one match.

I have never rated Konate, personally. I’m always happy to back him for fouls as I think he’s a bit of a calamity. He’s rash, he gets dragged in by strikers and caught out regularly.

He’s already picked up three yellow cards this season and has averaged 1.40 fouls per 90 minutes and is joint top of the foul charts in the squad.

He’s committed two or more fouls in each of his last two matches, combining for five in total. He’s committed a foul in five out of six matches in all competitions so far this season.

Mbappe has been in sensational form this season. The Frenchman has seven goals and two assists in La Liga already this campaign and will be looking to build on that.

That’s nine G/A in just six domestic matches. He racked up 30 in 31 last season and 34 in 34 the season before, so he’s as consistent as it gets in this market.

This selection has landed in each of his last three matches and in four of six La Liga games to this point.

Jude is superb at drawing fouls. His combination of dribbling ability, quick feet but also substantial strength and big frame makes him a nightmare for opponents. He’s always looking to break presses and get the ball on the half turn.

Bellingham has been fouled 14 times this season. The second most in the Madrid squad behind Vinicius Junior.

That’s an average of 2.86 times per 90 minutes. You could feasibly push this out to three fouls drawn at evens and it takes the bet builder considerably higher.

Come the big games, come the big players and I think Jude will have a big impact on this match. We saw how much he stepped up for England in the summer.

Bellingham has averaged 1.42 shots on target per 90 minutes in La Liga this season.

He’s had a shot on target in five of his six starts in the league.

What I love about Jude is his routes to landing this bet. He’s excellent on both feet, can arrive late in the box and is also very good in the air.

Vini does have the tendency to get embroiled in drama in big games, especially in a match like this where Atleti will be firm on him and look to wind him up.

He’s committed eight fouls in the last five meetings with Atleti and this selection has landed in four of the games. He’s also been booked twice in that run if you fancy a higher odds angle.

This season, Vini has averaged 0.89 fouls per 90 minutes and has fouled in five out of seven matches in all competitions.

Marc Pubill who’ll start at right-back against Vinicius has drawn a steady 1.25 fouls per 90 minutes this season.

This is similar to the Vini pick. Mbappe can be petulant and in these big games, he can get frustrated and commit silly fouls.

He’s averaged 1.17 fouls per 90 minutes in La Liga this season and his seven fouls is actually the joint most in the Madrid squad along with Ibrahima Konate.

Mbappe has committed one or more fouls in four of his five La LIga matches this season.

He committed a foul and was carded the last time he played against Atleti.

Of course, Vinicius is an expert at drawing fouls and when tipping on Madrid games, I tend to look at his direct opponent for fouls.

Vini has drawn an average of 3.93 fouls per 90 minutes and has been fouled more times than any other player in the league.

Pubill has averaged 1.25 fouls per 90 minutes this season in La Liga and has fouled in four of his five starts.

Interestingly, when his foul counts have been particularly high, it’s been against very direct wingers with high dribble attempts. He committed three fouls against Liverpool when defending Rio Ngumoah and three against Bilbao when tasked with stopping Nico Williams.

Before I get stuck in to several foul selections, I’m kicking off with Isaac Price to have a couple of shots.

Price is an excellent technician, like a crack from range and takes free-kicks for The Baggies.

This selection has landed in six of Price’s nine appearances in all comps so far this season and in the Championship he’s averaged 2.43 shots per 90 minutes.

He’s had 17 shots total, which is the highest in the West Brom squad, the next closest is seven behind which is Jimmy-Jay Morgan.

With a heated game expected, Fer Lopez is likely one of the players who might bear the brunt of it. The lightweight and very gifted Spaniard is crucial to Wolves’ attack and I’m sure the visitors will target him.

Lopez has been fouled at a rate of 1.90 times per 90 minutes so far in the Championship this season.

He’s drawn a foul in all bar one of his matches and interestingly, in the game against Birmingham (another heated rivalry) he was impeded four times.

West Brom’s central players love a foul - Myhre (1.52), Nzingoula (1.56) and Diakite (1.45) should all feature in some capacity.

I feel like Myrhe’s price hasn’t quite caught up yet with how likely he is to actually commit a foul.

As mentioned above, the Norwegian has averaged 1.52 fouls per 90 minutes this season in the Championship.

He’s landed this selection in six of his eight matches in all competitions.

The bookies give this a 69.44% implied probability, but the stats show it’s actually a bit higher at around 78% so it’s a nice addition to the bet builder.

The big Czech defender is back in action after an injury lay-off at the start of the season. He was back with a bang and a goal against Birmingham before a clean sheet against Sheff Utd.

He’s averaged 2.50 fouls per 90 minutes over his limited involvement in the Championship this season with three fouls against Birmingham and two against Sheffield United, he was also booked against The Blades.

Jimmy-Jay Morgan will play centrally for West Brom and is a real threat. He’s also drawn an average of 2.11 fouls per 90 minutes this season.