Manchester United hold all the cards in the race for a Champions League finish, with their main challengers being Chelsea and Liverpool. Manchester United are the only club of this trio that have no other duties between now and the end of the season while Liverpool and Chelsea are still both in the Champions League and FA Cup.

Manchester United have been performing really well under Michael Carrick, most recently running out 1-0 winners over Everton on the road - the exact type of game which United would have crumbled in just a few months ago. Carrick deserves a lot of credit, but there is also serious quality in the United side. They’ve probably been the most entertaining team to watch in the Premier League this term with the attacking talent they have in the side.

Manchester United come into this game having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, and have won all three of their games at Old Trafford under Carrick. They welcome a Crystal Palace side who have been struggling in recent weeks in the backdrop of Oliver Glasner coming out with some strange comments in his press conferences. 

Palace had to play during the week in the second leg of their Conference League tie against Zrinjski Mostar, and Glasner constantly complains about how thin the squad is, so I think the Eagles will struggle a little with fatigue in this clash. Manchester United also have a lot more to fight for than Palace at the moment in the Premier League, Glasner’s side will surely be judged by their performance in the Conference League between now and end of the season so United have the higher motivation coming into the game as well. 

Stuttgart dominated Wolfsburg when the sides met earlier in the season, running out 3-0 winners with an xG of 1.90 and limiting Wolfsburg to an xG of 0.32 from 11 shots. Stuttgart have been just as dominant at home in the Bundesliga this season with Sebastian Hoeness’ side winning eight of their 11 matches in front of their own supporters this term.

Wolfsburg find themselves in a relegation battle with the club currently level on points with St Pauli, only kept out of the drop zone via goal difference. They’ve been particularly poor defensively, conceding 49 goals across their 23 Bundesliga matches - only bottom of the league Heidenheim (51) have conceded more goals in the German top flight this term. 

Wolfsburg have only managed to win three of their 11 away matches in the Bundesliga this season, conceding 23 goals across these matches. Their recent form also makes for worrying reading with Wolfsburg coming into this game having lost four of their last five matches across all competitions, only picking up one point across these matches which was earned in a 2-2 draw with Leipzig. 

Lille’s campaign has been a little stop and start this season with the club currently sitting fifth in Ligue 1. They are chasing down a Champions League spot, but will need to pick up form soon to make this a reality with eight points currently between them and Lyon in third.

Lille have avoided defeat in eight of their 11 home games in Ligue 1 this term, winning six of these games. They’ve netted 18 goals across these matches, and now welcome a Nantes side that they managed to beat 2-0 when the sides met earlier in the campaign. That victory was comfortable and deserved for Lille, they generated an xG of 2.60 to Nantes’ 0.45 and also had 64% of the ball.

Nantes have only managed to win two of their 11 games on the road in Ligue 1 this season, and have struggled to create chances in these games with just 10 goals to their name on their travels. Their recent form is also quite concerning with Nantes coming into this game having lost four of their last five matches across all competitions. 

Chelsea have not won at the Emirates in the Premier League since 2021, when they were managed by Thomas Tuchel and Arsenal had a centre back pairing of Rob Holding and Pablo Mari. Arsenal have routinely got the better of Chelsea during Arteta’s tenure, most recently beating Chelsea over two legs of the EFL Cup semi final.

Arsenal have won 10 of their 13 home games in the Premier League this season, conceding just eight goals across these games which is the best home defensive record in the division. They responded well to their setback at Molineux a few weeks ago with a 4-1 win over Tottenham on the road, which should give them confidence to take into this encounter against a side that they are used to beating.

Chelsea have failed to win either of their last two Premier League matches against Leeds and Burnley - giving up leads in both of these games. I don’t think this young side do well in these high pressure environments, Chelsea have tended to shrink in these games which is something that holds when you look at their record at the Etihad and Old Trafford as well - as examples of this young side being unable to handle pressure.

Arsenal will also feel as though they have to win this game, City play before Arteta’s side so they could be two points behind Arsenal ahead of kick off which would put pressure on Arsenal - but I think they can manage this pressure and navigate this tie to claim all three points. 

Rangers will be a hard nut to crack in this game.

They have suffered only one loss at Ibrox this season in league play and only two overall. Both were against leaders Hearts. Moreover, their recent record in Old Firm matches is strong. Across their last seven meetings with Celtic, they have suffered just a single defeat over 90 minutes.

In their last meeting at Celtic Park, they cruised to a 3-1 win against a very disappointing Hoops side. Even when Martin O’Neill led the Hoops to victory in the League Cup semi-final back in November, it was only achieved after extra-time, with the Gers having been reduced to 10 men in that match in the first half.

Rangers also have the dual advantage of having a healthier squad than their opponents, as well as the fact that they have been able to focus on this game all week.

The stakes in this game are enormous, and these fixtures are noted for the volume of cards they typically produce at the best of times, so I expect that to be magnified in this encounter.

Rangers, after all, are a side that are picking up quite a few cautions this season, with 59 across their 28 league games this term. This means that they are averaging 2.11 per game. When it comes to facing Celtic, meanwhile, that figure has risen to 3.0. Indeed, they have seen exactly three yellow cards in each of their three Old Firm clashes this season – not to mention Thelo Aasgaard’s red in the League Cup.

Referee for the weekend’s match is John Beaton, who oversaw two Old Firm matches last season. These produced a staggering total of 20 yellow cards, 13 of which were to Rangers players, and he’s likely to be a busy man again on Sunday.

The form of Rangers striker Youssef Chermiti has been almost inexplicable this season, with the marquee summer signing having netted a disappointing seven goals in total.

He has, however, typically saved himself for the big games. He scored two against Celtic back in January, while he has netted four times against Hearts, including a hat-trick just a couple of weeks ago. When it comes to getting shots on target, the No.9 is a reliable force for Rangers. With 1.57 shots on target per 90, he posts the highest figure for the Ibrox club among players who have featured for at least 250 minutes this term.

He has at least one shot on target in nine of his last 13 appearances for the Gers. It’s Chermiti’s big-game performances in recent weeks that make me confident he will trouble Celtic’s keeper at least once.

Nicolas Raskin has been a foul machine for Rangers this season, both when it comes to winning and giving away free kicks.

With 2.03 fouls committed per game, he lies second in the Ibrox club when it comes to the crime count. Only Youssef Chermiti has more, yet in this case, Raskin is a more attractive bet due to the fact that he almost invariably plays 90 minutes. He has at least one foul in his last 24 appearances for Rangers, while recent weeks have seen this figure climb. Across his last seven starts, he has committed at least three fouls on five occasions.

He has a history when it comes to playing Celtic, too. In his previous meeting with Rangers’ Glasgow neighbours, he committed two fouls and also won two. I expect a similarly action-packed performance from the Belgium international in this game.

Jimenez was one of my favourite strikers in the league when he was at Wolves, and I’m really happy to see him doing well again this season. He’s netted eight goals for Fulham in the Premier League this season, making the Mexican Fulham’s joint top scorer in the league alongside Harry Wilson.

He comes into this game having netted a brace against Sunderland last time out, which should give him plenty of confidence to try and find the back of the net again. 

I always like backing strikers for goals or shots on target when they are coming off the back of a strong display - I think more so than other positions, a striker is a role that is heavily reliant on the confidence of the player, so Jimenez coming into this game in goalscoring form is a massive motivating factor. 

Jimenez has found the back of the net against the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea, and Aston Villa this season so he is used to being an effective player against the (supposedly) elite sides in the division. The Tottenham backline looks very low on confidence, and I can see them giving up chances to Fulham and Jimenez pretty regularly.

I’ve always thought that Gallagher is a much more effective player when he plays higher up the pitch. I don’t think his skillset is particularly useful in build-up as he’s not polished enough on the ball to progress the ball through the thirds, but his energy and ability to arrive into the box make him a solid option further up the pitch.

Igor Tudor gave us a small insight into how he will look to set up this Tottenham side in their 4-1 loss to Arsenal last week. It looks like Tottenham will be moving to a 3-4-3 shape, and I think it’s likely that Gallagher will be operating just ahead of a midfield pairing of Sarr and Bissouma, who are more suited to those roles.

Gallagher has already shown small signs of getting involved in the final third with five shots across his six Premier League appearances, seeing two of these find the target. He’s also registered an assist for Tottenham in his brief appearances so far, and registered 12 goal contributions when he was last in the Premier League with Chelsea, five of these being goals.

Bissouma picked up a card in Tottenham’s 4-1 defeat to Arsenal last time out and looks like he’ll be the player tasked with the main defensive duties in the middle of the park for Tottenham here.

Bissouma’s Tottenham career hasn’t really gone to plan, with the player repeatedly falling out with coaches and players, and even being suspended at times for his off-field antics. 

He’s started just four games in the Premier League this season, picking up two yellow cards across these games. As is often the case when a new manager comes through the door, he’s got a new lease of life under Tudor, who looks to be a fan of the former Brighton man, seeing as he put him straight in the starting lineup for that North London Derby clash.

Matheus Cunha is one of those players that just suits playing for a club like Manchester United. He’s got that arrogance that you need to play for a club of the stature of United, and has added some end product to his game in the second half of the season after a slow start.

Cunha’s shot volume has always been quite high, he averaged 3.81 shots per 90 for Wolves last season and has posted similar numbers this term with an average of 3.29 shots per 90. Cunha is rarely deterred when he misses a chance, even if it is a golden opportunity, he will quickly pick himself up again and have more attempts - a bit like Bruno Fernandes.

This relentless nature, when it comes to Cunha’s shot rate, means that he’s always a decent player to back for a shot on target. 24 of his 63 attempts have found the target in the Premier League this season (1.25 per 90), working out to a shot accuracy of 38%. This has translated into six goals for Cunha in the Premier League, and I wouldn’t be against backing him for another goal in this clash.

There aren’t many players in the Premier League who are more combative than Will Hughes. This isn’t quite reflected in his season-long stats this season with 18 fouls committed across his 14 starts in the Premier League (1.35 per 90), but a dive through his historical numbers and potential opponents here make this a decent angle.

Palace committed 14 fouls when the sides met earlier in the season, Hughes was on the bench for that game, but both Casemiro and Fernandes were fouled, suggesting that the midfield can be an active battleground for foul exchanges again here. Hughes committed 65 fouls across his 24 starts in the Premier League last season (2.76 per 90) - which is a more accurate representation of how combative Hughes can be.

Senne Lammens was Manchester United’s most important player in their 1-0 win over Everton last time out. Benjamin Sesko received all the plaudits for his brilliant run and finish to secure all three points, but Lammens gave United the platform to get that goal with the four saves he made in the contest.

Lammens hasn’t really put a foot wrong since stepping into the United net, which is one of the most scrutinised positions in football. The best compliment I can probably give Lammens is that I don’t really notice him until he is called into action. This marks quite the change from the theatrics of Andre Onana, who constantly demanded the limelight with his antics.

Lammens was forced into two stops when the sides met earlier in the season, and I think Palace have enough firepower to test him on at least two occasions. Across the season as a whole, Lammens has made 48 saves across his 21 Premier League starts - working out to an average of 2.29 saves per 90.

Manchester United hold all the cards in the race for a Champions League finish, with their main challengers being Chelsea and Liverpool. Manchester United are the only club of this trio that have no other duties between now and the end of the season while Liverpool and Chelsea are still both in the Champions League and FA Cup.

Manchester United have been performing really well under Michael Carrick, most recently running out 1-0 winners over Everton on the road - the exact type of game which United would have crumbled in just a few months ago. Carrick deserves a lot of credit, but there is also serious quality in the United side. They’ve probably been the most entertaining team to watch in the Premier League this term with the attacking talent they have in the side.

Manchester United come into this game having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, and have won all three of their games at Old Trafford under Carrick. They welcome a Crystal Palace side who have been struggling in recent weeks in the backdrop of Oliver Glasner coming out with some strange comments in his press conferences. 

Palace had to play during the week in the second leg of their Conference League tie against Zrinjski Mostar, and Glasner constantly complains about how thin the squad is, so I think the Eagles will struggle a little with fatigue in this clash. Manchester United also have a lot more to fight for than Palace at the moment in the Premier League, Glasner’s side will surely be judged by their performance in the Conference League between now and end of the season so United have the higher motivation coming into the game as well. 

Wilson has been Fulham’s standout player this season and currently ranks as Fulham’s joint top scorer in the Premier League with eight goals to his name. 

He’s achieved this goal tally from 56 shots across his 24 Premier League starts (2.49 per 90), which is already more shots than he managed across the entirety of last term (43). 21 of these efforts have found the target, working out to an average of 0.93 shots on target per 90.

Wilson had two shots and scored when these sides met earlier in the season, with that strike coming from distance. This seems to be a common occurrence with Wilson; he’s always willing to take on more speculative efforts, with 24 of his shots coming from outside of the box this season.

Wilson is also on free kicks for Fulham, which can offer him another route to the target in this clash. I back him to continue the strong form he’s shown all season for Fulham and find the target at least once in this crucial game for Tottenham in particular.

Xavi Simons has been improving week by week in the Premier League after a slow start to the campaign. This is normal for players who come from foreign leagues, and Simons now looks a bit better suited to the pace and intensity of the division.

Simons has had 2+ shots in four of his last five Premier League appearances, except Tottenham’s 4-1 defeat against Arsenal last time out - a side who are the best team in the league when it comes to limiting the amount of shots the opposition can get away.

Simons has managed 3+ shots in two of these games, and I think this recent shot record is a good example of how his confidence has improved over the last few weeks. It doesn’t help Simons that Tottenham find themselves in a relegation battle, but he can continue his strong shot record here.

Simons has had 32 shots across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season (1.96 per 90), and managed two shots in a 30-minute cameo off the bench when the sides met earlier in the season.

If I asked you for a few words to describe Fulham and their style of play, I’d imagine you’d say something along the lines of solid, hard to beat, and organised, but their clean sheet record over the last few seasons tells a different story.

Fulham have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 11 matches across all competitions, seeing BTTS in nine of these matches. This isn’t anything new. Fulham only kept five clean sheets across their 38 Premier League matches last term - only the three relegated sides kept fewer shutouts than Marco Silva’s side.

Fulham definitely are a competitive side, but I wouldn’t back them to keep a clean sheet at the moment, given their recent record and the fact that this has been going on for a few seasons. It’s not the case that Fulham are conceding two or three goals a game, but they lack the security to keep opposition sides out - in those 11 games without a clean sheet, they’ve only conceded more than once in four of them.

BTTS landed when these sides met earlier in the season, with Fulham running out 2-1 winners on that occasion. Tottenham simply have to win here and come into this clash having seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions - setting the stage for goals at both ends. 

It is usually quite common for sides that are battling at the bottom of the table to end up near the top of the foul and card rankings, and Tottenham are no different, with Igor Tudor’s side being deeply frustrated at times this term.

Tottenham have picked up 68 yellow cards across their 27 Premier League matches this term (2.51 per game) - more than any other side in the division. They picked up two cards against Arsenal last time out, and I can see them being prone to frustration again in this clash against a Fulham side that should smell blood.

Tottenham picked up three yellow cards from 11 fouls when the sides met earlier in the season, and a similar card count should be in frame for the meeting at Craven Cottage. The fact that this is a London rivalry as well should turn the temperature up enough for Tottenham to walk away from the contest with at least two cautions.

I’m a big fan of the latest Brighton starlet off the conveyor belt. Gomez looks like such an exciting player, one with an eye for the spectacular and an excellent physical profile, as well as technical.

One thing he does enjoy, though, is committing regular fouls. So, we’re on him to make at least two in this match.

Gomez has averaged 1.86 fouls per 90 this season. This has been particularly prominent recently when he’s been playing off the right-hand side. He’s made seven fouls across his last three matches from that position.

He’ll also be up against one of Forest’s most fouled players - you’d probably assume that that's Callum Hudson-Odoi. The English winger averages 0.64 fouls drawn per 90. But in fact, it’s Neco Williams. Williams is impeded an average of 1.76 times per 90, the 3rd-highest from the Forest starting line-up, and he’ll be in closest proximity to Diego Gomez.

The evergreen Danny Welbeck, still producing the goods. Welbeck has bagged nine goals this season and is comfortably Brighton’s top scorer. Despite spending on forwards, he still manages to hold down his place.

In terms of shots on target, Welbeck tops the Brighton charts at 0.94 per 90 minutes. He’s had a shot on target in each of his last four Premier League starts, and he is also likely to be Brighton’s penalty taker if they were to receive one. 

Forest have conceded at least three shots on target in nine of their last 10. Two of them saw them concede four, and another two saw them concede five.

This game could be quite tight, but I do expect Brighton to get a result here, and at home, they can put anyone under pressure. It doesn’t take a lot for Welbeck to sniff out an opportunity that can get us a tick on our slip.

Brighton have lost just two home games this season. Their home record isn’t amazing, as a lot of those have been draws, but I just fancy them to at least keep Forest at arms length in this one.

I don’t take much from H2H records, but it is encouraging to note that Brighton have had the better of Forest in the Premier League era, with Forest failing to win a top-flight game against Brighton.

Forest have only managed three away wins this season, and although things have improved under Vitor Pereira - they’re in that strange position of being in a relegation battle but also having one eye on Europe.

Brighton’s metrics improve drastically on home soil. Their xG rises from 1.39 to 1.60, whilst their xGA drops from 1.52 down to 1.26, showing a significantly stronger showing at The Amex, as opposed to their matches on the road.

Forest have had a couple of good away wins lately, but with the European distraction and Brighton’s home record, I’m siding with the Seagulls.

I do like the price on Sangare to commit 2+ fouls at 1.73, but the added safety we get in the foul involvements market is perfect for a bet builder at these odds.

Sangare has averaged 1.86 fouls per 90 so far this season, and that is the basis of this bet. He’s big, he’s physical and he’s very aggressive. He has looked a much better player lately, playing closer to the Sangare that they hoped they’d signed.

He has committed 11 fouls across his last three games: 4, 4, 3. Some hefty numbers.

He’s not awful for drawing fouls either, at 0.86 per 90. Brighton do commit a lot of fouls in central areas too with Diego Gomez when he drifts in (1.86), Jack Hinshelwood (2.05), Carlos Baleba (1.91) and James Milner (1.70).

Sangare has also drawn four fouls across his last five games. 

Across those five, 2+ foul involvements has landed on every occasion, so I’m confident that the trend will continue against Brighton.

Reece James has been moved back out to right back by Liam Rosenior, mainly to accommodate Andrey Santos in midfield.

James being at right back doesn’t mean he’ll be resigned to that part of the pitch for the whole contest. James drifts into midfield when Chelsea are in possession - with Rosenior occasionally looking to platform his full backs as number 10s. He’s a very modern coach, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few tweaks to his system for this game.

James played in midfield when the sides met earlier in the season, managing one shot in that game, in which he was the best player on the pitch - in the midst of a battle for the best midfielder between Moises Caicedo and Declan Rice. 

James has taken 16 shots across his 17 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 0.89 shots per 90. 13 of those efforts have come from outside of the box, which is significant as Chelsea aren’t likely to have constant access to the Arsenal penalty box.

Robert Sanchez deserves a lot more praise than he gets from both Chelsea fans and wider Premier League fans. He’s averaging 2.71 saves per 90 in the Premier League this season, and was forced into making three saves when the sides met earlier in the season.

It was Sanchez’s impressive shot-stopping skills which earned Chelsea a point in that encounter, with the Blues reduced to 10 men in the first half. He’s had to make 3+ saves in three of his last five Premier League appearances and should be routinely tested here by an Arsenal side, who simply need three points to keep their distance from Manchester City in the title race.

I often think Sanchez takes a lot of the blame for Chelsea’s issues at the back. He’s a reliable shot stopper, and although he does have the odd mistake in him, he still performs well when looking at his underlying numbers. Sanchez finished the season last year with the joint best save percentage in the Premier League (73.6%), and is currently operating around 70% - which is only bettered by three keepers in the Premier League this term.

Have we finally seen a corner turned by the big Swede? Perhaps that’s harsh, given that he has already netted 15 times for the Gunners, but it’s safe to say he hasn’t wowed us since his arrival from Sporting Lisbon.

It looked like his team-mates finally figured out how to get the best out of him. Get him into the left-hand channel, and isolate him against defenders because he can be truly destructive in those areas.

Gyokeres netted twice against Spurs, having four shots in total. His season average sits at 2.13 per 90, but this is him now playing with confidence. 

This has landed in over half his games when he’s played 65 minutes or more, and was also on target in the EFL Cup against Chelsea recently.

The bet being covered by Super Sub could be very advantageous, too. His likely replacement would be Gabriel Jesus, who has averaged 4.03 shots per 90, the most in the Arsenal squad.

Caicedo is never far away from my card picks, especially in big games. The combative, tough-tackling Ecuadorian was sent off in the previous Premier League meeting for a nasty challenge on Mikel Merino.

It’s nothing new for Caicedo, he’s been a serial offender since his arrival in the Premier League. He’s been carded 41 times in his last 132 PL matches.

That average of roughly one in three holds up against the Gunners, too. He’s played nine times against Arsenal and received three cards.

He’s been particularly naughty recently, with six cards in his last 16 matches for Chelsea in all competitions.

Of course, he’s consistent with fouls, too. He’s averaged 1.69 per 90 this season, and has made two or more on 16 separate occasions across all competitions for the Blues this season.

He’ll likely be close to the bang in-form Eberechi Eze, who draws an average of 1.64 fouls per 90.

This exact bet landed when these sides met earlier on in the season as the teams played out a 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea were particularly impressive in still covering these lines despite having 10 men, and have the chance to temporarily derail Arsenal’s title push - so there is plenty of motivation for Rosenior’s to warm to the task again.

What has been notable about Arsenal’s approach in recent matches is that Arteta seems to be leaning more towards chaos rather than control. Arsenal have seen BTTS in each of their last three Premier League matches against Brentford, Wolves and Tottenham. This indicates that Chelsea may be faced with a more open game than they contested in the second leg of their EFL Cup semi final against Arsenal, which was won 1-0 by the Gunners.

Furthermore, this bet also landed in the first leg of that EFL Cup tie with Arsenal coming away 3-2 winners in that clash. That game saw these lines covered with ease, Chelsea managed five shots on target, six corners and four yellow cards while Arsenal had six shots on target, nine corners and four yellow cards. 

A lot of the narrative around this game has been focused on Arsenal pushing for the title, but this is also quite an important game for Chelsea in their hunt for a Champions League finish. Chelsea dropping points against the likes of Leeds and Burnley at home in recent matches has made this a game that Rosenior can’t really afford to lose with both Liverpool and Manchester United having favourable home fixtures this weekend.

I love the look of this boost, you can’t get this price anywhere else and the fact that it’s landed in two of the three meetings between these sides already this season is a really promising sign. 

Arsenal picked up six yellow cards when the sides clashed at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season. They covered this line inside 13 minutes, with Martin Zubimendi and Cristhian Mosquera picking up early cautions on that occasion and ended the game with a foul count of 13.

Mikel Arteta’s side are towards the bottom of the league for yellow cards this season, which is why the price is pretty generous, but the context surrounding this game should see them cover this line. Arsenal picked up four yellow cards in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Chelsea, showing again how the rivalry between the sides can lead to Arsenal picking up at least two cautions. 

I expect emotions to be fragile at the Emirates on Sunday afternoon, too. Arsenal know that they have to win the game to keep their distance from Manchester City in the title race, so Chelsea should have some instructions to tap into the frustration that should be present the longer Chelsea can stay in the game.

Chelsea have been pretty good at drawing cards from the opposition since Liam Rosenior took over. They’ve drawn 2+ cards in six of their seven Premier League matches under the former Strasbourg boss - and that is despite only drawing 10+ fouls in two of those games.

It’s not often that you’ll see this price for Cole Palmer to have 2+ shots in a Premier League game, and my guess would be that it’s been priced like this because of how good Arsenal are at limiting shots from their opponents - and Chelsea’s approach in the second leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Arsenal.

Chelsea were quite passive in that game, but still managed to get 14 shots away. That is one of the highest shot totals that Arsenal have conceded at the Emirates all season. Palmer didn’t start the game but came on with 30 minutes to go and had one shot in his time on the pitch. 

Palmer has taken 38 shots across his 14 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.18 shots per 90. I don’t think he’s been at his best this season, but he has managed to maintain a similar shot average to last season (3.55 per 90), showing that he can still be a shot threat despite his recent dip in form. 

Palmer hasn’t started a game against Arsenal since the 2-2 draw between the sides back in 2023, a game in which he scored and had four shots. Chelsea have a dreadful record at the Emirates over recent seasons, though Palmer’s first start at the stadium may be what they need to finally get over the line against Mikel Arteta’s side.

Moises Caicedo has actually won more fouls than he has committed in the Premier League this season (38-35), which quite surprised me given how we’ve come to associate Caicedo with reckless challenges. His 38 fouls won in the Premier League works out to an average of 1.83 fouls won per 90 - making Caicedo an ideal candidate to draw a foul in this clash.

Caicedo has featured in two of Chelsea’s three games against Arsenal this season across the EFL Cup and Premier League. He was fouled twice in both of those games, including Chelsea’s 1-0 loss at the Emirates in the second leg. He’s been fouled in four of his last five Premier League appearances, with two of those games seeing Caicedo fouled 2+ times. 

Arsenal have committed 13 or more fouls in each of their three head-to-head meetings with Chelsea this season. This is above their seasonal average (10.1 per game), and suggests that Chelsea can bring out that extra layer of aggression from Mikel Arteta’s side. His main opponent here is likely to be Martin Zubimendi, who is averaging 0.95 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season.

I think Zubimendi has been one of the best signings in the Premier League this season. He’s settled Arsenal and allowed Declan Rice to play a more advanced role in the side. He’s adapted well to the speed and direct nature of the Premier League and is averaging 0.95 fouls committed per 90 coming into this clash.

Chelsea are set to line up with a midfield duo of Andrey Santos and Moises Caicedo here. Santos has become a favourite of Liam Rosenior in the early parts of his tenure, likely due to his familiarity with Rosenior’s tactics, seeing as the pair worked together at Strasbourg. He’s been very strong when it comes to drawing fouls over recent weeks, winning 2+ fouls in each of his last four Premier League appearances.

Zubimendi will also brush shoulders with Caicedo, who has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League appearances and is averaging 1.83 fouls won per 90. Zubimendi has committed a foul in each of the three head-to-head meetings between the sides across the EFL Cup and Premier League this term, committing 2+ fouls in two of those games.