Semenyo has embedded himself seamlessly in the Manchester City machine, and has emerged as their most reliable attacker since his arrival from Bournemouth.

I wondered if he could transition from being such a talisman in a small side, to being a cog in a bigger machine, when in fact he’s just becoming a talisman for the bigger team.

Domestically, he’s averaged 1.13 shots on target per 90 for Manchester City. He averaged 1.35 per 90 in the league whilst at Bournemouth.

Since signing, he has had one or more shots on target in nine of his 11 starts, and he’s scored seven goals along the way.

In 2025/26, he has started 36 matches, and this selection has landed in 31 of them.

Real are a bit all over the place in terms of their defensive selections. Ferland Mendy returned at the weekend, so he will likely start at left back, and although that is positive for them; he is perhaps lacking some sharpness, and Semenyo is not the type of player you want to be facing after a long lay-off.

Valverde is often a player I think that is misprofiled, and I see people backing foul bets with him in, with little substance. More based on his reputation. He is busy, industrious and aggressive, but in his role at right back for Real, with the game largely in front of him, he’s more measured.

However, with issues across the side in terms of injuries, and the return of Trent Alexander-Arnold, he’s been back in midfield.

In midfield, he has made a foul in five of his last six matches, including two at the weekend against Celta Vigo and four in the Champions League play-off against Benfica.

In total, he’s made nine fouls across his last six appearances. That’s an average of 1.60 fouls per 90 minutes, which is a big jump from his domestic average this season of 0.69.

A player who is now averaging 1.60 fouls per 90, shouldn’t be priced at 1.57. 

Also, factoring in potential opponents and their fouls drawn numbers, there's a lot to go at here. Rayan Cherki (2.04), Rodri (1.95) and Jeremy Doku (2.86) are three of City’s stat leaders in that department.

Kylian Mbappe is still a doubt for this game, opening the door for Vinicius Junior to be Real Madrid’s talisman again. Vinicius often takes on a more proactive role when Mbappe isn’t in the side, and this game should be no different, with the Brazilian often saving his best form for the Champions League.

Vinicius has taken an eye-catching 35 shots across his nine starts in the Champions League this season, working out to an average of 3.89 shots per 90. You always have a decent chance of hitting the target with this kind of shot volume, and what’s notable about Vinicius' shot output is that it tends to increase when Mbappe is not in the side.

Of those 35 attempts, 12 have found the target in the Champions League (1.33 per 90). Vinicius’ numbers are almost identical in La Liga this season:

3.27 shots per 90

1.37 shots on target per 90

This shows that he tends to perform to a pretty consistent standard in front of goal, and has a pretty decent record when it comes to taking aim against Manchester City. He’s had 13 shots across the last five meetings between the sides, managing at least three shots in four of those matches.

I’m always really interested to see how Guardiola develops players, he isn’t afraid to move players around in different positions - as we’ve seen with Matheus Nunes over the last few seasons.

Semenyo has been playing quite centrally in recent matches, with Guardiola looking to make the most of how comfortable Semenyo is on both feet. This slight position change should lead to a rise in how often Semenyo is hauled to the ground, he’s averaging 0.68 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, which is why he’s priced like this to win a single foul.

Semenyo’s strength and power is commonplace in the Premier League, but a real standout feature of his game when playing in Europe. He’ll be making his Champions League debut for Manchester City here, and I think that power will serve him well against a Real Madrid side that can be quite petulant.

Real Madrid committed 16 fouls when they welcome Benfica to the Bernabeu in the second leg of their playoff tie against Jose Mourinho, with Tchouameni responsible for three of these fouls. If Semenyo is pushed back out to his usual role on the wing, he’ll face off against Camavinga and Carreras, who committed a foul each in that win over Benfica - and are averaging 3.34 fouls committed per 90 between them in the Champions League this season.

I’m quite surprised to see how far down Joao Pedro is in the market for a shot on target given his recent form, you can back six players at a better price for a shot on target in this clash which isn’t where I would have him given his current form and increased shot volume under Liam Rosenior.

I think Rosenior has struggled with being in the limelight a bit at times, but what is a clear strength of his is his personal relationship with his players which allows him to develop them. Joao Pedro was not shooting enough for a striker when Rosenior first stepped into the club, but is now operating at a shot volume of 2.38 per 90.

Joao Pedro has improved this rate further in his last few matches with five shots against Aston Villa and four efforts against Arsenal. When a striker is playing with confidence, they are more likely to take on shots and also demand the ball from their teammates. Joao Pedro is the most influential player in the Chelsea squad at the moment, and he has previous against PSG having netted against the club in the Club World Cup final.

This has been one of my go to selections when betting on Chelsea this season, especially in matches where the Blues are faced by a daunting away trip. One of the more buried facts about the Blueco era at Chelsea is just how poor they have been on the road against big six clubs since the new ownership took over.

Across Chelsea’s last 19 away matches against Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City - Chelsea have won just once. The Blues have the worst record of any of these sides, losing 12 of these games which I think highlights the main issue at Chelsea which is one that hasn’t changed since the new ownership and is actually quite obvious to most people looking in at the club.

Chelsea’s squad is too young and inexperienced, which naturally leads to petulance. Chelsea have picked up 13 yellow cards across their eight matches in the Champions League this season (1.6 per game) - which is bound to increase in the knockout stages of the competition.

Only three sides in the Premier League have picked up more cards than Chelsea (2.31 per game), and that aggression should translate to the Champions League now we are in the serious phase of the competition.

Luis Enrique really isn’t afraid to chop and change players in his squad, no matter how key they may seem, and this precedent also applies to the goalkeeper. Lucas Chevalier was brought in at the start of the campaign as a replacement for Donnarumma - but he has spent the last nine games on the bench for the reigning European champions.

I never thought Donnarumma needed replacing if I’m honest, but Enrique’s argument was that he wanted a keeper that is better with his feet - a common wish of modern managers. Matvey Safonov has taken Chevalier’s place over these recent matches and has been forced into making 17 saves across his eight starts in Ligue 1 (2.12 saves per 90).

Safonov also played in both legs of PSG’s triumph over Monaco in the playoff round to reach this stage of the competition, and is maintaining a save average of exactly 2.00 saves per 90 in the Champions League this term. Monaco managed to score four goals in that tie, so I think PSG aren’t quite solid enough at the back to keep Chelsea from testing their goalkeeper on at least two occasions. 

Both legs of PSG’s playoff tie against Monaco produced at least nine corners, with PSG registering eight corners in each match. That trend holds up more broadly under Luis Enrique - seven of PSG’s 10 Champions League fixtures this term have featured nine or more total corners.

On home soil in Europe this season, PSG have earned 33 corners across five matches, averaging 6.60 per game. Chelsea, for their part, are averaging exactly four corners per game on their Champions League travels this season and under Liam Rosenior, they’ve looked especially vulnerable from set pieces.

Rosenior has now overseen 15 matches as Chelsea boss, with 12 of those games (80%) seeing nine or more corners. Opponents are clearly targeting Chelsea from dead-ball situations, and PSG have both the quality and territorial control to do the same. 

That said, Chelsea pose a threat from such scenarios too - six of their 17 Champions League goals this season have come from penalties or set pieces, and they managed to rack up 10 corners in a recent away trip to Arsenal.

Vinicius Jr is the main man for Real Madrid at the moment with Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe being doubts for this fixture and Rodrygo being ruled out altogether. This leaves Vinicius as the only real superstar in the Real Madrid squad at the moment, and you get the feeling that he’ll have to shoulder most of the attacking responsibilities if Madrid are to get a result here.

Vinicius Jr scored in both legs of Real Madrid’s Champions League success against Benfica in their playoff tie to reach this round of the competition. Vinicius has registered seven goal contributions across his nine starts in the Champions League this term - only Mbappe (14) has registered more goal contributions for Real Madrid in the Champions League this season than Vinicius, adding to the evidence to suggest that he’ll be Madrid’s main threat here.

Enzo Fernandez has been a much bigger threat in the final third this season, already netting more goals than he did in each of his last two seasons for Chelsea. Liam Rosenior clearly sees Fernandez as a more advanced player, he’s been playing Santos and Caicedo a bit deeper with Fernandez pushed on to the attacking midfield role, or even to the left at times.

Fernandez has scored two of his 12 goals in the Champions League this season, also picking up two cards in the competition across his seven starts. His underlying numbers match up with these standout figures as well with Fernandez averaging 1.66 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League this term, as well as 2.26 shots per 90.

This should be a really entertaining tie between two sides that have faced off regularly in the Champions League over the last few seasons. I can’t see it being a tight game, even though it is the first leg, given how poor Real Madrid have been in recent matches and their general defensive disorganisation under Arbeloa.

A good way to understand just how poor Real Madrid have been at the back in the Champions League this season is the form of Thibaut Courtois. He’s been called into action 45 times across his nine starts in the Champions League this season (5.00 per 90). This shows how open Real Madrid are in their Champions League games, and suggests that they can’t rely on the security of their backline alone to get them through this tie.

Real Madrid should also be able to carry an attacking threat themselves in this game given the individual quality that Arbeloa has at his disposal. Even though Bellingham and Mbappe are doubts, Madrid still have the likes of Vinicius Jr and Arda Guler who can both offer a shot threat to Manchester City in both halves of this first half meeting. 

PSG aren’t quite operating at the standard they set from the round of 16 onwards in the Champions League last season, and Chelsea can take advantage of that in this first leg meeting. 

Liam Rosenior has taken charge of two Champions League matches so far, with the more relevant one being Chelsea’s 3-2 win over Napoli - which secured their spot in the top eight of the league phase. That game saw 10 shots on target, five for each side, with both sides having at least one shot on target in each half.

PSG’s issues were well highlighted in their 2-2 draw against Monaco in the second leg of their playoff tie to reach this stage of the competition, they squeezed through with a 5-4 win on aggregate but looked far from convincing, allowing Monaco to have eight shots on target across the two legs. 

I don’t think either manager will look to sit back in this game, which should lead to an open and end to end contest which sees both sides get at least one shot on target in each half. 

Morgan Rogers has been brilliant at times for Aston Villa this season, though I do think he could be more consistent. There are games in which Rogers drifts and doesn’t really impose himself in the way a player of his quality could - and his recent form reflects that, as well as playing into the pricing of this angle.

Rogers has taken eight shots across his five starts in the Europa League this season (1.49 per 90), with four of these efforts hitting the target (0.75 per 90). I wouldn’t read too much into this record, as Aston Villa managed to secure their progression to the knockout stages quite easily, leading to Unai Emery chopping and changing the squad constantly.

A more reliable data set to look at is Rogers’ shot and shots on target numbers in the Premier League. No Villa player has scored more goals in the Premier League this season than Morgan Rogers (8), with the attacker achieving this tally from 66 shots (2.29 per 90), seeing 27 of these attempts find the target (0.94 per 90).

I love coming to this selection when it’s at this price. Usually, Konsa can drop to around 1.17-1.2 to win a foul, and he’s incredibly consistent in this department. It’s not common for centre-backs to be so strong when it comes to winning fouls, but Konsa is mainly due to how Aston Villa like to play.

Konsa is having around 72 touches per 90 in the Premier League this season, suggesting that he is trusted with the ball at his feet - and is the player who can build the play for Villa from the back. This has led to Konsa winning 32 fouls across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (1.15 per 90).

If we crossover to the Europa League, Konsa has drawn a remarkable 12 fouls across his four starts in the competition (2.61 per 90). This increase further suggests that this is a reasonable price as part of our bet builder for Konsa to win at least one foul. I’d also consider looking at higher lines for Konsa here, given the slight increase we see in his foul won numbers when looking at his Europa League involvements this season.

Another angle always worth taking a look at when Villa play is for their opponents to commit fouls. 

Villa have drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of around 13 fouls won per game. Villa also topped this metric last season, so it clearly is a consistent part of their game, which should remain the case in this last 16 tie.

Lille are averaging 11.6 fouls committed per game in Ligue 1 this season, with this metric staying pretty consistent when looking at their foul numbers in the Europa League this term (11.4 per game). 

Aston Villa almost always force a rise in the average foul numbers of their opponents, and I think that’s been factored into the pricing of this market - the line for Lille fouls is set at 13 in this match, so the bookies are also expecting a slight increase in the number of fouls that Lille commit in this clash.

There has been a lot of talk about Villa and data this season, mainly because Unai Emery’s side were going against pretty much every data and xG model in the early parts of the season, but appear to have dipped back to the mean across recent weeks.

One lesser-noted outcome from this data has been the performance of Emi Martinez. We know he is a top keeper, even if he does have a rash moment in him, but he’s been operating at a really high standard this season. Only Donnarumma (73.6%) has maintained a higher save percentage in the Premier League than Emi Martinez (73.5%), and the keeper also has the second-best goals prevented tally (3.90), behind Dean Henderson (4.40).

Martinez has been forced into making 10 saves across his four starts in the Europa League this season, working out to an average of 2.50 saves per 90. I think he’ll maintain his solid shot-stopping ability here with Lille, having the appropriate firepower to test him at least twice, averaging 5.00 shots on target per game in the Europa League so far this season. 

Despite this only hitting in five of eight Palace games, one of those eight games was a game featuring ten in defeat to this opposition (8-2 corner count in favour of Palace) and with the club out of the FA Cup and a likely midtable finish in the Premier League, they can really put all of their eggs into the Conference League basket and I think they will want to lay down a real marker at home here against inferior opposition.

Five of Larnaca’s six league phase games also saw at least eight corners, and all featured between seven and ten, showing a strong level of consistency at both ends of the pitch, which is handy for this selection.

Palace also covered this line by themselves in two league phase games, with ten against KuPS and nine against Shelbourne (as well as seven when hosting Fredrikstad in the qualifying play-off round).

Unsurprisingly, given we expect Palace to have a good number of shots on target and a fair number of corners in the match, it’s one of their centre-backs that catches the eye to have an effort on goal here.

Across his last ten starts in all competitions, the Frenchman is averaging 0.96 shots per 90 minutes, with at least one in eight of those matches. This includes efforts against both Champions League-calibre teams such as Man United, Chelsea, and Newcastle, as well as the likes of Burnley and last round’s opponents Zrinjski Mostar, demonstrating there is no bias towards the type or strength of opposition that Lacroix tends to have a shot against.

His shot data is stronger than fellow centre-backs Chris Richards and Chadi Riad, suggesting that he (alongside big striker Strand Larsen) will be the primary target from set pieces, which, if the corners flow as they should do, he is likely to get a head (or a boot) on the end of one or two.

After starting the campaign playing as a right back/right wing back, Miramon moved into more of an attacking role in the last couple of games, shuffling between midfield and the right wing.

In those two last Conference League matches, he had two shots against both KF Drita and Hacken, and started on the wing in Larnaca’s 3-0 league win this weekend just gone, scoring the second before being replaced just before the hour mark.

With the Cypriot’s looking to have changed shape in recent weeks from a back three system to more of a 4-2-3-1, and with some key attacking injuries meaning he is likely to remain in this more advanced role and look to exploit the space in behind left wing back Tyrick Mitchell, I think there’s every chance he keeps up his good forward thrust from recent weeks.

Morgan Gibbs-White has come alive in the Europa League this season, registering five goal contributions across his six starts in the competition and taking 17 shots across these games (2.80 per 90). 

Of these efforts, 11 have found the target (1.81 per 90), which represents a substantial increase in Gibbs-White’s shot and shot on target numbers in the Premier League. Gibbs-White has netted a further eight goals in the Premier League this season, from a shot on target average of 0.76 per 90.

The increase in his accuracy in the Europa League is likely down to the extra time and space that he is afforded in the competition compared to when he plays in the Premier League. 

These sides faced off in the league phase of the Europa League in a game that ended in a 3-2 win for Midtjylland. Gibbs-White had two shots in that game, with one of these efforts finding the target - showing how Gibbs-White can live up to his average shot and shots on target numbers in the Europa League again in this clash.

This line might seem quite high at the price, but there aren’t many players better to back in this market than Elliot Anderson. In the league phase meeting between the sides earlier in the season, Anderson ended the game with 12 foul involvements.

I had to go and look at his numbers a few times from that game just to make sure I was reading them correctly, though Anderson is capable of these sorts of monstrous foul numbers regularly. If you combine Anderson’s foul won and foul committed numbers in the Europa League this season, he’s averaging 5.74 foul involvements per 90.

Even if we look at Anderson’s numbers over a larger sample size, he’s averaging 3.71 foul involvements per 90 in the Premier League this term across his 29 starts in the division. It’s clear that Anderson is a magnet for foul involvements, and the 12 he managed in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides would suggest that at least four foul involvements are possible here.

Midtjylland ran out 3-2 winners when these sides faced off earlier in the season, and managed to have five shots on target and draw one save from Metz Sels, with their other effort on target being cleared off the line.

Matz Sels hasn’t been the busiest keeper in the Europa League this season with six saves across his five starts in the competition (1.20 per 90). However, Midtjylland have the firepower to cause Nottingham Forest problems - they finished third in the league phase, winning six of their eight matches and netting 18 goals in the process (2.25 per game).

Only three sides have had more shots on target than Midtjylland in the Europa League this season (5.90 per game), so the Danish side have the appropriate quality at the front end to force a rise in Sels’ relatively low save numbers in the Europa League this season.

The meeting between these sides in the league phase produced five goals as Midtjylland ran out 3-2 winners at the City Ground. Midtjylland have seen 26 goals across their eight league phase matches in the Europa League this season, working out to an average of 3.25 goals per game.

Forest’s matches in the Europa League have been pretty entertaining this season too, with 22 goals across their eight league phase matches (2.75 per game), and a further six goals across the two legs of their playoff tie against Fenerbahce - with both of those legs seeing 3+ goals. 

Forest also look a bit more open under Vitor Pereira, which is reflected in the goal tallies across their recent matches. Forest have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, while Midtjylland have seen 2+ goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions.