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I really enjoy backing Liam Delap in this market, it covers both of the main parts of his game quite well. 

Delap has scored once since arriving at Forest, but I do see that tally improving the more he works with Glasner. He’s had more shots than any other Forest player this season (18), so he’s getting in the right positions.

Delap’s poor spell at Chelsea has almost erased a lot of the good work he did for Ipswich the season prior to joining the Blues, netting 12 Premier League goals for a side that got relegated.

Whilst I do believe that Delap will still develop to be a decent striker, one part of his game that will be a constant negative is how overly physical he is in his challenges.

Delap has committed a foul in each of his last five Premier League appearances, committing multiple fouls in three of these games. This has led to Delap picking up two yellow cards, and he could get in a real tangle against the back three of Ipswich. 

This is an excellent price for Murillo to have at least one shot against Ipswich on Friday night.

I’ve been impressed with the Forest centre back for some time, and Glasner coming in has taken his game to another level - especially when it comes to his attacking contributions.

Playing as the left centre back in a back three allows Murillo to push on into central areas. This is an invitation he accepts often, being more comfortable when it comes to  driving with the ball than most other centre backs.

He’s had 12 shots across just seven starts for Forest in the Premier League (1.72 per 90), which is a significant rise on the 0.46 shots per 90 he averaged last season. It’s clear that this slight positional change has benefited his shot numbers, with the role allowing him to step forward more regularly. 

Forest are averaging 17.14 shots per game in the Premier League, managing at least 12 shots in all of their domestic matches this term.

Neco Williams has been fouled in each of his last five matches in the Premier League, winning multiple fouls in two of these games.

He’s been deployed as a left wingback by Oliver Glasner, which is a role that really suits him. 

He’s not the best defensively, but is excellent at crossing - so playing as a wingback gives Williams the extra defensive protection he needs while maximising his strengths.

Williams has been fouled 12 times overall across his seven starts in the Premier League, working out to an average of 1.71 fouls won per 90.

He maintained an average of 1.46 fouls won per 90 for Forest across 36 starts last season - so this is a pretty consistent part of his game. 

One of the advantages of backing wingbacks for fouls or fouls won, is that they usually have up to two or three opponents depending on the opposition set up. 

Daizen Maeda was an interesting signing by Ipswich over the summer, but may just pitch in with enough goals to help the side stay up.

Maeda isn’t incredibly talented, but he works really hard and often gets rewarded for that endeavour. He’s only had four shots for Ipswich this season, but the key thing for me is that three of these shots have found the target.

He scored in Ipswich’s 3-2 defeat to City last time out, which will give him confidence, also finding the target in Ipswich’s games against Liverpool and United - suggesting that Maeda can offer a decent threat for Ipswich in transition.

Maeda played his football for Celtic last season, averaging 1.05 shots on target per 90 domestically. He did play as a striker for part of the season, so it’s a little skewed, but his early performances for Ipswich have been promising enough to back him to find the target at least once. 

Arsenal played really well at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League during the week, earning a point thanks to a late equaliser from Declan Rice.

Arteta’s side controlled the game and only conceded to a wonderful defence splitting pass from Harry Kane and a penalty, which the former Tottenham man also converted.

Arsenal have won six of their seven Premier League games this season, with the exception of that 3-0 defeat to Brighton - who are proving to be one of the best sides in the league this term.

Arsenal have won three of their games at home in the Premier League this term, scoring seven goals and only conceding twice. 

They also have a great record against Arteta’s former side at the Emirates under his tenure, winning four of the last five clashes between the teams in North London.

Everton have conceded 2+ goals in both of their matches since the international break against Hull and Chelsea, also notably failing to win any of their three away matches this term.

Barnsley are in a real mess at the moment.

They’ve lost each of their last five matches ahead of this one, and you have to go all the way back to early September for their last win in any competition - a 2-1 victory over Blackpool.

Reading boast the best home record of any side in League One, with only Luton managing to beat them in front of their own fans back on Matchday 1.

Reading have scored 15 goals across their six home games in League One this term (2.5 per game), which is more than any other side at home in the third division.

Barnsley have only managed to win one of their five away games in League One this season, losing three of these games. Reading’s scoring power is likely to be too much for them, Barnsley have only scored five goals across these matches. 

These are two of the best sides in the Championship, and I think Southampton have shown enough this season to back them to get on the scoresheet.

Tonda Eckert’s side have netted 21 goals across their 11 games in the Championship this season (1.90 per game), only Middlesbrough (22) and West Ham (30) have scored more goals than Southampton in the Championship this season.

The only side that has managed to keep Southampton out so far this season was Bolton last week, who were quite fortunate to keep that clean sheet with the Saints registering an xG of 2.19 from their 14 shots.

These sides faced off in the EFL Cup earlier in the season, which saw West Ham come away 4-1 winners. Southampton rotated heavily for that game, and still managed to get on the scoresheet.

This is usually one of the most entertaining games of the Premier League season with the most recent meeting producing three goals as Chelsea came away 2-1 winners over Tottenham at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea have seen 3+ goals in six of their last seven Premier League matches this season. They did look a little more settled against Everton last time out, securing a 2-0 victory, but Tottenham should be able to capitalise more on Chelsea’s defensive issues than the Toffees.

De Zerbi’s side got their first win of the season against Coventry last time out, coming away 3-1 winners. They’ve seen 16 goals across their seven Premier League matches this season (2.28 per game), and have only kept one more clean sheet than Chelsea (2).

Dan Ndoye has probably been Forest’s most influential player so far this season, scoring two goals across his seven starts in the Premier League and only Liam Delap (18) has had more shots for Forest this season than the Swiss international.

Ndoye has taken 17 shots in the Premier League so far this term (3.28 per 90), managing 2+ shots in each of his last four Premier League games - including getting two shots away against Arsenal last time out, the best side in the league when it comes to keeping the opposition shot count down.

Ipswich are conceding 16.86 shots per game in the Premier League this term, while Forest have had at least 12+ shots in all of their Premier League matches this term - averaging 17.14 shots per game overall.

Julio Enciso is the star player in this Ipswich side and only six players in the Premier League have had more shots than the Paraguayan this term (19 - 3.03 per 90).

Enciso could definitely be a bit more clinical with these efforts, with just five of the 19 finding the target, but that still works out to a healthy average of 0.80 shots on target per 90. He’s willing to shoot from almost anywhere, 13 of his 19 efforts have come from outside the box.

Enciso played his football in Ligue 1 for Strasbourg last season, taking 61 shots across just 22 starts (2.90 per 90) and seeing 22 of those attempts find the target (1.05 per 90). 

He’s found the target in two of Ipswich’s three home games this term, managing two efforts on target in the game against Liverpool. 

Dara O’Shea has settled in really well to his right centre back role for Ipswich this season, playing in a back three alongside Diop and Greaves - who have proved to be a solid base for Ipswich so far this season.

O’Shea’s role as a wide centre back means that he can push on into midfield areas, giving him a wide variety of opponents. 

He’s committed six fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this season and faces up against a Forest side who are winning 11.43 fouls per game in the Premier League this season.

O’Shea’s direct opponent is likely to be Neco Williams, when the Welshman pushes on as a wingback. Williams has won 12 fouls across his seven starts for Forest this season (1.71 per 90) and pretty much hugs the touchline when looking at his heat map. 

Nottingham Forest are seeing 9.57 corners per game in the Premier League this term, which rises to 10.80 corners per game when looking at their last five matches.

Corners and set pieces were a regular route to goal for Crystal Palace under Oliver Glasner, and he has similar assets in this Forest team with the likes of Murillo, Diomande and Delap all offering a decent threat from these situations.

Only three sides have actually conceded more corners than Forest over their last five matches, suggesting a slight vulnerability of their own that Ipswich could punish.

Ipswich are seeing 8.00 corners per game in the Premier League this term, but there is a tactical element at play here too with both sides set to line up in a 3-4-3 shape and play wingbacks.

These systems naturally make the pitch quite wide, with both sides looking to use their wingbacks to get balls into the box. Forest rank third for successful crosses in the Premier League (5.80 per game), while Ipswich are averaging 4.00 successful crosses per game.

There's no denying Go Ahead Eagles have been great fun to watch this season, with BTTS landing in all nine of their Eredivisie games so far.

At home, they're averaging an impressive 18 shots per game, and three of their four matches have seen at least four goals.

The only thing holding them back is their defence. They've conceded seven goals in their last two games, including four against PEC Zwolle, who had the worst attack in the league going into that match.

Telstar have been struggling too, but they've still managed to score three against league leaders Feyenoord and two against ADO Den Haag.

Telstar have shown they can hurt even the best defences in the league, and with Eagles playing such entertaining games at home, I'm expecting another night full of goals here.

Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom of the table for a reason. They've conceded at least twice in every one of their six Bundesliga games so far.

While they've got the worst defence in the league, the good news is they've scored in their last three matches, including a crazy 4-3 defeat to Mainz.

Gladbach are averaging 15 shots per game and now face a Stuttgart side that have conceded in every home game this season, including in the Champions League.

Stuttgart have been putting up some impressive attacking numbers at home too, averaging 17 shots and 1.69 xG per game.

Ermedin Demirović is their top scorer with five goals and is available for this one, having played just 18 minutes against Atlético de Madrid.

With both teams creating plenty of chances and their defences still struggling, this game has all the ingredients for goals at both ends.

BTTS has landed in all three of Forest's Premier League away games so far, with the team scoring and conceding every time.

They drew 2-2 away at Liverpool and even managed more shots than both Aston Villa and Crystal Palace.

Ipswich are allowing an average of 16 shots per game and haven't managed a single clean sheet this season.

But their attack has been doing its part, scoring twice in their defeat to league leaders Manchester City and another two in their win over Fulham.

Gibbs-White has been an important part of Forest's attack, with one goal and two assists, and he's expected to return this Friday.

With him back in the team, there's even more reason to expect an entertaining game between two sides that just can't seem to keep clean sheets.

Arsenal played really well at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League during the week, earning a point thanks to a late equaliser from Declan Rice.

Arteta’s side controlled the game and only conceded to a wonderful defence splitting pass from Harry Kane and a penalty, which the former Tottenham man also converted.

Arsenal have won six of their seven Premier League games this season, with the exception of that 3-0 defeat to Brighton - who are proving to be one of the best sides in the league this term.

Arsenal have won three of their games at home in the Premier League this term, scoring seven goals and only conceding twice. 

They also have a great record against Arteta’s former side at the Emirates under his tenure, winning four of the last five clashes between the teams in North London.

Everton have conceded 2+ goals in both of their matches since the international break against Hull and Chelsea, also notably failing to win any of their three away matches this term.

Roma have made an excellent start to the season, winning five of their opening seven matches in Serie A.

They’ve avoided defeat across these games, scoring 16 goals and conceding just three. This early run has put them in some title conversations, with Roma also showing real resilience in recent weeks to remain unbeaten despite having key players missing.

Only Inter (21) have scored more goals than Roma in Serie A this season, with Gian Piero Gasperini’s side notably scoring six goals across their three away assignments this term (2.0 per game).

Napoli are a bit of a mess at the moment, the appointment of Allegri seemed strange at the time and is looking more and more like a mistake - they’ve only kept three clean sheets this term, with just one shutout across their last five games.

Barnsley are in a real mess at the moment.

They’ve lost each of their last five matches ahead of this one, and you have to go all the way back to early September for their last win in any competition - a 2-1 victory over Blackpool.

Reading boast the best home record of any side in League One, with only Luton managing to beat them in front of their own fans back on Matchday 1.

Reading have scored 15 goals across their six home games in League One this term (2.5 per game), which is more than any other side at home in the third division.

Barnsley have only managed to win one of their five away games in League One this season, losing three of these games. Reading’s scoring power is likely to be too much for them, Barnsley have only scored five goals across these matches. 

BTTS has won in all 10 of their League Two outings this season.

It looks sustainable as well, they’ve conceded 15 goals from 14.70 xG against and scored 23 from 21.53 for.

Oldham have been more BTTS-shy this term, with the bet only landing in five of 11, but that’s come while they’re trending at 1.51 xG for per game and 1.26 xG against.

The odds feel generous considering this bet has landed in 9/10 Barnet league outings and 5/5 at home.

Oldham have seen eight goals in their last two games and they've conceded two or more goals in their last three league away games.

The data suggests that Exeter are due to score, and Fleetwood are due to concede.

Exeter are the 3rd-biggest xG underperformers in League Two, scoring only eight times from 14.05 xG for.

They host a Fleetwood side who have the 2nd-worst xG against figure in the division, the 3rd-biggest xG overperformers with 15 conceded from 22.31 xG against.

Fleetwood are allowing 1.86 xG against per game, a regression to the mean for both sides in this fixture would see the floodgates open for Exeter.

The hosts have been gradually improving as the campaign has gone on, now with four wins, four draws and four defeats from their opening 12, and despite only scoring eight they’re only a point off the play-offs.

Fleetwood have kept just one clean sheet in six league away games and their process does not suggest the next one will be coming anytime soon.

St Mirren are unappealing favourites when they host Dundee in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday, with the visitors the more attractive option on the double chance.

The Dark Blues have made a mightily impressive start to the season and go into the weekend sitting 4th in the table.

Steven Pressley’s side followed back-to-back wins over Motherwell and Falkirk with a battling display to claim a well-deserved 2-2 draw against Rangers last Saturday.

They will be quietly confident of extending their unbeaten run against a St Mirren side that have gone into freefall after their strong start to the season.

The Saints have lost each of their last five Scottish Premiership matches and are now without a win in their last three top-flight games on home turf.

As such, Dundee look well placed to pick up at least a point in Paisley.

Montrose have done most of their best work at home this season, and they can pick up another positive result by at least avoiding defeat against Peterhead on Saturday.

Montrose were enjoying a five-match winning run in Scottish League One before suffering back-to-back defeats against Airdrie and Ross County. 

However, they stopped the rot last weekend by battling their way to a 1-1 draw away at East Kilbride.

A home game against Peterhead this weekend represents a good opportunity for Stuart Petrie’s side to put another three points on the board.

While the Blue Toon claimed a 2-0 win over bottom-of-the-table Cove Rangers last weekend, they had failed to win any of their seven league games before that, losing six of those.

It is also worth noting that Montrose beat Peterhead 3-0 in the reverse fixture only last month, adding further weight to backing the hosts.

Ross County continue to score goals at a remarkable rate, and they can add to their tally when they host Airdrie on Saturday.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side scored four in their last home league game against Alloa. 

Since then, the Staggies have gone on the road to fire five past Montrose and seven past Queen of the South, maintaining their place at the top of the table.

A closer look shows that County have scored multiple goals in eight of their nine league wins this season, including their away victory over Airdrie.

The Diamonds have shown signs of improvement of late, but their four-match unbeaten run came to an end when they lost 2-1 at home to rivals Hamilton last week.

John Rankin’s team also conceded twice in their last away game, a draw against East Kilbride. 

That strengthens the case for Ross County to claim another three points and score at least twice in the process.

Abde Rebbach is playing much like he did last season and rarely gets through a game without giving away a foul.

The Alavés defender has committed at least one foul in eight of his nine games this season, averaging 1.58 per 90 minutes.

Rebbach will have to deal with Rafael Garrido, who's been fouled more than anyone else at Málaga this season, averaging almost two fouls won per 90 minutes.

It's not just Garrido. David Larrubia could also cause problems down Alavés' left side, having drawn plenty of fouls himself this season.

Málaga's number 10 ranks second in the team for key passes and is involved in more duels than anyone else, averaging 15 per game.

With Garrido and Larrubia likely to keep him busy and three yellow cards already picked up in five home games this season, Rebbach could be in for a tough night against Málaga.

Andrea Carboni has been giving away more fouls than almost anyone else at Monza this season, and now he'll have to deal with Giovanni Simeone, who's averaging 2.37 fouls won per 90 minutes.

The centre-back committed four fouls in his last game against Cagliari and picked up a yellow against Lazio in the game before that.

Carboni is averaging 1.62 fouls per 90 minutes this season, and Simeone's movement could make life difficult for him. 

The striker scored twice against Parma and caused all sorts of problems down the left side of their defence.

The referee is worth keeping an eye on too. Andrea Zanotti hasn't been letting much go this season, handing out 12 yellow cards and one red in his last two Serie B games.

Carboni has given away at least one foul in seven of his eight games this season. With Simeone drawing so many fouls and a referee who isn't shy about showing cards, he could be in for a tough time away from home.

Krzysztof Ratajski is one of the most consistent players on the tour, regularly sitting around a 95/96 average which sees him get to around the Round of 16 or Quarter Finals of most events.

He struggles to raise his game beyond this impressive base, which has stopped Ratajski from going toe to toe with the very elite players. He’s taking on a player in Dave Chisnall, who has been in decline for some time.

It looks like a lot of effort for Chisnall at the moment. His movement was always a bit idiosyncratic, but it looks harsher now with his darts often dropping below the treble 20 bed.

This is harmful for Chizzy, as 180 hitting was a massive part of his game when he was at his peak. He’s still hitting 0.28 180s per leg, but the rest of his game is suffering - averaging 90.34 over the season and failing to pick up a title of any description since 2024.

Ratajski’s recent form isn’t the best, but he’ll see this as a very winnable first round tie and has picked up a title on the Euro Tour this year. 

Jonny Clayton was impressive at the World Grand Prix, beating Ratajski and Nijman before bowing out to eventual finalist and fellow Welshman, Gerwyn Price.

Clayton won a European Tour last month, beating Gian van Veen and Luke Humphries in the final two rounds. He’s clearly one of the best players on the tour, and has the experience to navigate being against a fan favourite.

Niko Springer will get all the support from the home crowd as one of the two Germans competing in Dortmund. Against a less experienced player, I could see this having an effect on Springer’s opponent - but Clayton has been in that scenario so many times before.

Keep an eye out for Clayton hitting 100+ checkouts in this game and across the tournament. He was on fire with that range at the World Grand Prix, and is skilled on the bull. It could also be a good way to quieten the crowd.

There's no denying Go Ahead Eagles have been great fun to watch this season, with BTTS landing in all nine of their Eredivisie games so far.

At home, they're averaging an impressive 18 shots per game, and three of their four matches have seen at least four goals.

The only thing holding them back is their defence. They've conceded seven goals in their last two games, including four against PEC Zwolle, who had the worst attack in the league going into that match.

Telstar have been struggling too, but they've still managed to score three against league leaders Feyenoord and two against ADO Den Haag.

Telstar have shown they can hurt even the best defences in the league, and with Eagles playing such entertaining games at home, I'm expecting another night full of goals here.

If you look at the league table, it looks like Forest are struggling quite a bit - but that’s not the same story when you look over their underlying numbers.

Only Manchester City (+8) have a higher expected points difference than Forest (-7) this season, a jump that would see them move 15 places up the league table.

Ipswich have done well to win three of their opening seven matches, but only Palace (17) have conceded more goals than the Tractor Boys this term (15) and I think that defensive vulnerability will catch up with them.

Forest have won the xG battle in two of their last three defeats, with the exception of their 1-0 loss to Arsenal. Glasner’s side have to get a bit of luck eventually, and I think we could see Ipswich's defensive issues catch up with them here with Gibbs-White also set to return to the Forest line up. 

Angel Gabriel is one of Racing Ratings' favourite horses of the day, with a score of 8.7/10.

He has finished in the top four in each of his last four races and five of his last six, finishing 1st and 3rd in his two most recent outings.

He is the joint-favourite, alongside Intense Vision, who has not registered a win in their last six.

Angel Gabriel finished 2nd over course and distance in November last year, as a much longer odds shot than today, and can call on that experience.

He has been very consistent around the places across his career and the softer ground could work in his favour.

Hauteluce is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a hefty score of 9.6/10.

She has won three of her five races this season, including her very last outing, and leads the market for the 19:30.

She is floating around the 3/1 mark and just under, while only one other horse in the race is coming in off the back of a victory, and that's 9/1 shot, at the time of writing, Vincenzo Peruggia.

Hauteluce has a perfect record at Wolverhampton, two wins from two - both over course and distance, coming in late June and early October.

She's a strong performer on the all-weather surface and has a great chance of justifying her favouritism.

So Sassy is Racing Ratings' 2nd-favourite horse of the day with a score of 9.3/10.

She directly follows today's NAP at Wolverhampton, leading the market for the 20:00, at the time of writing, having won two of her last four races.

So Sassy has finished in the top two in three of her last four races, and only one other horse in the race has a victory to their name in their last five - and it's 33/1 shot, Souffler.

So Sassy won back-to-back races at this track in July and August of this year, and that course form will be demanding a lot of respect from the bookies.

She has been consistent on Tapeta as well, it's an ideal spot to get around 3/1 on So Sassy for the 20:00.

Caraway is Racing Ratings' 3rd-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 9.0/10.

She has won two of her last six races, finishing in the top two on four of those occasions.

Odds-on favourite for the 20:30, Saxophonist, is winless in their last six.

Caraway has raced over today's course and distance three times, winning once, with that victory coming in early October.

Darragh Keenan is retained in the saddle, having ridden Caraway to both her career wins.

The Tapeta surface matches that of her victory last time out.

This is an excellent price for Murillo to have at least one shot against Ipswich on Friday night.

I’ve been impressed with the Forest centre back for some time, and Glasner coming in has taken his game to another level - especially when it comes to his attacking contributions.

Playing as the left centre back in a back three allows Murillo to push on into central areas. This is an invitation he accepts often, being more comfortable when it comes to  driving with the ball than most other centre backs.

He’s had 12 shots across just seven starts for Forest in the Premier League (1.72 per 90), which is a significant rise on the 0.46 shots per 90 he averaged last season. It’s clear that this slight positional change has benefited his shot numbers, with the role allowing him to step forward more regularly. 

Forest are averaging 17.14 shots per game in the Premier League, managing at least 12 shots in all of their domestic matches this term.

Erling Haaland has had more shots on target than any other player in the Premier League this season, averaging 1.89 shots on target per 90 across his seven starts and netting eight goals in the process.

Haaland had three shots on target when City visited Villa Park last season, accounting for 75% of the shots on target that City had in that 1-0 defeat. 

He was rested for City’s win over AEK Athens during the week, so should be fully fit for this clash against a Villa side who also competed in the Champions League during the week. 

He’s had at least one shot on target in all three of his away matches in the Premier League this term, managing three efforts on target in City’s 4-1 win over Palace earlier in the season.

Villa are having issues with keeping the opposition shot count down, conceding 15.86 shots per game and 4.43 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season.

Johan Manzambi is a doubt for this game, which is a real blow for Villa as he’s started the season really well, but Jackson has been the other standout across the opening months of the season for Unai Emery’s side.

Jackson has long received criticism he doesn’t really deserve, it’s true that he could be a bit more clinical with the positions he gets in - but the fact he keeps getting in these situations is a real positive, as is his ability to carry the ball and bring others into play.

It’s also notable that he’s being coached by Unai Emery now, who has made a habit of improving strikers just like Jackson - with Watkins’ rise as a top striker being mainly down to the advice of Emery.

Jackson has scored two goals across his six starts in the Premier League this season, taking 16 shots across these matches (3.07 per 90) and seeing five of these efforts find the target (0.96 per 90).

Marc Guehi is one of the most consistent centre backs in the Premier League when it comes to winning fouls, drawing eight across his seven starts this season (1.14 per 90).

He’s incredibly comfortable on the ball, averaging 96.6 touches per 90 and 80.3 successful passes per 90. These metrics are relevant because it shows just how much of the ball Guehi sees, increasing the chances of him being fouled.

Aston Villa are averaging 10.7 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this term, and I’m particularly interested in Guehi’s battle with Jackson. The former Chelsea striker’s foul numbers aren’t anything standout, but he is easily frustrated - especially against sides that are as good at keeping the ball as City.

Guehi has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League matches, and only three City players have won more fouls than the former Crystal Palace centre back this term.

Aston Villa have recovered from a sluggish start to the campaign, just as they did last year, and enter this clash having avoided defeat in each of their last seven matches - winning six of these games.

They’ve only kept two clean sheets during this run, against Newcastle and Fenerbahce, but still conceded an xG of 0.99 or higher in both of those games. Lindelof and Mings are not that convincing a pairing, and I think both will struggle to deal with Haaland.

City have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches ahead of this clash, conceding twice against Ipswich in their last home game. I still think there are issues for Maresca to address with City’s rest defence - a weakness that Jackson is perfect to exploit as a solid ball carrier.

Hauteluce is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a hefty score of 9.6/10.

She has won three of her five races this season, including her very last outing, and leads the market for the 19:30.

She is floating around the 3/1 mark and just under, while only one other horse in the race is coming in off the back of a victory, and that's 9/1 shot, at the time of writing, Vincenzo Peruggia.

Hauteluce has a perfect record at Wolverhampton, two wins from two - both over course and distance, coming in late June and early October.

She's a strong performer on the all-weather surface and has a great chance of justifying her favouritism.

Joao Pedro has been one of the best strikers in the Premier League so far this season, netting five goals across his six starts for Chelsea from 16 shots (2.76 per 90).

The Brazilian has had the joint most shots on target of any Chelsea player this season (8 - 1.38 per 90), and has also notably had the most touches in the opposition box of any Chelsea player (35) and had the most big chances (6).

This has been the main shift in Joao Pedro’s game this season, he’s playing much more as an actual striker rather than drifting to other areas of the pitch.

He’s had at least one shot on target in four of his last five Premier League matches, and managed five shots on target against Tottenham when Chelsea travelled to North London last season. 

It’s no coincidence that Chelsea have looked a lot harder to beat since Moises Caicedo’s return to the starting lineup, with the midfielder forming a surprisingly strong partnership with Henderson in the middle of the park.

Caicedo has committed a foul in both of his Premier League starts this season, committing three fouls against Everton last time out. He was very fortunate to avoid a yellow card, contesting seven duels in total at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

This is obviously a small sample size, but Caicedo has been a reckless presence in the Chelsea midfield for some time. He committed more fouls than any other Chelsea player last season (54), averaging 1.73 fouls committed per 90 - ranking in the 99th percentile when compared with other Premier League midfielders for this metric. 

James Maddison returned to the Tottenham starting lineup against Coventry last time out, and was fouled four times. He’d be an ideal opponent for Caicedo here. 

I highlighted this angle in Tottenham’s game against Coventry last week, and it landed in the first half with Van Hecke playing as the right sided centre back when Tottenham had the ball.

Van Hecke has been fouled in four of his last five Premier League matches, only five Tottenham players have won more fouls than Van Hecke (7) this season - so it’s a consistent part of his game, and I think he can be fouled at least once in this London derby.

Van Hecke ranks in the 84th percentile when compared to other centre backs in the Premier League for fouls won. Playing as that right sided centre back should see Van Hecke run into Jorrel Hato and Morgan Rogers, who are averaging 1.43 fouls committed per 90 between them this term.

Emi Martinez had to come off on a stretcher at the Hill Dickinson stadium last week, meaning Mike Penders will step into the number one role for Chelsea here.

Penders is talented, but inexperienced and I think we’ll see Tottenham try and capitalise on that with some early long range efforts to test the keeper - who had to make four stops in his only start this season against Leeds in the EFL Cup.

Emi Martinez was forced into making 25 saves across just six starts in the Premier League prior to his injury, more than any other keeper in the division. This works out to an average of 4.29 saves per 90, we just need Penders to make two here.

Martinez was forced into making 3+ saves in all six of these matches, suggesting that Chelsea are too easy to take aim against - and will need Penders to make at least two saves here if they are to get all three points. 

Stuttgart are at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are bottom of the Bundesliga with the worst defence in the league, having conceded at least twice in every game.

Ermedin Demirovic is Stuttgart's top scorer this season with five goals and also leads the team in shots and shots on target.

The striker is averaging an impressive 4.61 shots and 2.41 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Stuttgart are averaging 17 shots per game at home, while Mönchengladbach have allowed at least 19 shots in every away game.

With Mönchengladbach struggling so much away from home and Demirovic getting so many chances, there's a good chance we'll see the Stuttgart striker add to his goal tally here.

I remember watching Cozier-Duberry years ago in a reserve fixture that Blackburn played in and he was electric. His ability is reaching new heights every week and he’s in sensational form for ‘Boro.

Cozier-Duberry is left-footed, playing from the right. He’s capable of wonder goals and loves cutting in and letting fly.

This season he’s averaged a huge 4.59 shots per 90 minutes in the Championship. His 24 shots is the second highest in the squad behind Lankshear, who has played nearly double the minutes.

The winger racked up eight shots in his last match against Cardiff, with three on target.

Famewo will be the man tasked with stopping Cozier-Duberry. Cozier-Duberry hasn’t been a prolific foul-winner so far this season, however he has drawn one in each of his last two and last season he drew 1.12 per 90 minutes and was the fourth most fouled player in Bolton’s squad.

As for Famewo, he was booked in his last outing and has averaged 1.19 fouls per 90 minutes so far this season.

He has committed a foul in all bar one game this season and the game he failed to do so was when he was substituted at half-time against QPR.

Sheehan is a very busy man in the middle of the park for Bolton. He has committed the most fouls in their squad this season (15) but is also their most fouled player (18).

Given how short his prices are to commit a foul, and the data actually being better for drawing them, this looks like a nice little price.

Sheehan has drawn an average of 1.65 fouls per 90 minutes and comes up against a ‘Boro midfield who average 2.35 fouls per 90 (Morris and Berhalter).

Sheehan has drawn at least one foul in 10 of his 11 Championship appearances this season.

‘Boro are the heavy favourites here and have averaged a huge 2.07 xG in the Championship this season.

They have immensely talented forward players at their disposal and could well cover this line on their own if they’re at their best.

‘Boro matches have averaged 3.45 goals, the second-highest in the division with 73% of their games having three or more goals, including four of their last five.

As for Bolton, their average sits at 3.00 per match and a 64% strike rate for over 2.5 goals.

They can definitely offer a threat. Their xG rises dramatically at home to 1.87, compared to 1.21 away.

There’s a real clash of styles here, with Wattimena being an excellent scorer but a bit dodgy on the outer ring, while Joyce is the opposite - showing his best side towards the end of legs.

Wattimena has had a decent year. He picked up a Players Championship trophy, as well as reaching the final of a Euro Tour. He’s averaging 0.26 180s per leg this season, operating at a first nine average of 103.40.

Joyce is only averaging 0.16 180s per leg this season, suggesting a real gap between the two when it comes to their maximum hitting. His darts are quite thick, and can block the bed even when his first two land - so they’re not suited to regular maximum hitting.

Wattimena will know his edge is in the scoring phase of the game, and I expect him to come away with the most maximums here in a real clash of styles.

Krzysztof Ratajski is one of the most consistent players on the tour, regularly sitting around a 95/96 average which sees him get to around the Round of 16 or Quarter Finals of most events.

He struggles to raise his game beyond this impressive base, which has stopped Ratajski from going toe to toe with the very elite players. He’s taking on a player in Dave Chisnall, who has been in decline for some time.

It looks like a lot of effort for Chisnall at the moment. His movement was always a bit idiosyncratic, but it looks harsher now with his darts often dropping below the treble 20 bed.

This is harmful for Chizzy, as 180 hitting was a massive part of his game when he was at his peak. He’s still hitting 0.28 180s per leg, but the rest of his game is suffering - averaging 90.34 over the season and failing to pick up a title of any description since 2024.

Ratajski’s recent form isn’t the best, but he’ll see this as a very winnable first round tie and has picked up a title on the Euro Tour this year. 

This could be the game of the night, Cristo Reyes has done remarkably well to battle back as a PDC player having taken a few years away from the game. 

He’s still operating at a really impressive standard despite this break from darts, averaging 94.08 this season and maintaining a checkout percentage just shy of 40%. 

Aspinall is the favourite here, but such a short format could see Reyes cause the Asp real issues. Reyes has won his opening game in each of the last two Euro Tour events, and doesn’t tend to get thrashed - each of his last five defeats in this format have seen him pick up at least three legs.

We’d likely need Reyes to break Aspinall at least once in this game for this selection to land. I think he’s capable of that, in what should be a tight game as the match odds already suggest.

Jonny Clayton was impressive at the World Grand Prix, beating Ratajski and Nijman before bowing out to eventual finalist and fellow Welshman, Gerwyn Price.

Clayton won a European Tour last month, beating Gian van Veen and Luke Humphries in the final two rounds. He’s clearly one of the best players on the tour, and has the experience to navigate being against a fan favourite.

Niko Springer will get all the support from the home crowd as one of the two Germans competing in Dortmund. Against a less experienced player, I could see this having an effect on Springer’s opponent - but Clayton has been in that scenario so many times before.

Keep an eye out for Clayton hitting 100+ checkouts in this game and across the tournament. He was on fire with that range at the World Grand Prix, and is skilled on the bull. It could also be a good way to quieten the crowd.

Angel Gabriel is one of Racing Ratings' favourite horses of the day, with a score of 8.7/10.

He has finished in the top four in each of his last four races and five of his last six, finishing 1st and 3rd in his two most recent outings.

He is the joint-favourite, alongside Intense Vision, who has not registered a win in their last six.

Angel Gabriel finished 2nd over course and distance in November last year, as a much longer odds shot than today, and can call on that experience.

He has been very consistent around the places across his career and the softer ground could work in his favour.

Hauteluce is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a hefty score of 9.6/10.

She has won three of her five races this season, including her very last outing, and leads the market for the 19:30.

She is floating around the 3/1 mark and just under, while only one other horse in the race is coming in off the back of a victory, and that's 9/1 shot, at the time of writing, Vincenzo Peruggia.

Hauteluce has a perfect record at Wolverhampton, two wins from two - both over course and distance, coming in late June and early October.

She's a strong performer on the all-weather surface and has a great chance of justifying her favouritism.

So Sassy is Racing Ratings' 2nd-favourite horse of the day with a score of 9.3/10.

She directly follows today's NAP at Wolverhampton, leading the market for the 20:00, at the time of writing, having won two of her last four races.

So Sassy has finished in the top two in three of her last four races, and only one other horse in the race has a victory to their name in their last five - and it's 33/1 shot, Souffler.

So Sassy won back-to-back races at this track in July and August of this year, and that course form will be demanding a lot of respect from the bookies.

She has been consistent on Tapeta as well, it's an ideal spot to get around 3/1 on So Sassy for the 20:00.

Caraway is Racing Ratings' 3rd-favourite horse of the day, with a score of 9.0/10.

She has won two of her last six races, finishing in the top two on four of those occasions.

Odds-on favourite for the 20:30, Saxophonist, is winless in their last six.

Caraway has raced over today's course and distance three times, winning once, with that victory coming in early October.

Darragh Keenan is retained in the saddle, having ridden Caraway to both her career wins.

The Tapeta surface matches that of her victory last time out.

Hauteluce is Racing Ratings' NAP of the day, with a hefty score of 9.6/10.

She has won three of her five races this season, including her very last outing, and leads the market for the 19:30.

She is floating around the 3/1 mark and just under, while only one other horse in the race is coming in off the back of a victory, and that's 9/1 shot, at the time of writing, Vincenzo Peruggia.

Hauteluce has a perfect record at Wolverhampton, two wins from two - both over course and distance, coming in late June and early October.

She's a strong performer on the all-weather surface and has a great chance of justifying her favouritism.

So Sassy is Racing Ratings' 2nd-favourite horse of the day with a score of 9.3/10.

She directly follows today's NAP at Wolverhampton, leading the market for the 20:00, at the time of writing, having won two of her last four races.

So Sassy has finished in the top two in three of her last four races, and only one other horse in the race has a victory to their name in their last five - and it's 33/1 shot, Souffler.

So Sassy won back-to-back races at this track in July and August of this year, and that course form will be demanding a lot of respect from the bookies.

She has been consistent on Tapeta as well, it's an ideal spot to get around 3/1 on So Sassy for the 20:00.

I backed this selection in my write up for Charlton’s defeat at Watford last week and I’m surprised Coventry isn’t sitting at odds closer to 1.14 than the 1.30 available.

Coventry has averaged 1.82 fouls per 90 minutes in the Championship so far this season and has been booked in each of his last two games.

The Irish midfielder has fouled in every single Championship game this season. He also fouled in each of his three starts for Ireland over the international break.

Midfielder Pelle Mattsson is also Norwich’s most fouled player, he draws an average of 1.76 fouls per 90 minutes.

Not only adept at winning fouls, the Dane is busy committing them. He’s averaged 2.55 per 90 minutes this season and his 26 total fouls is more than double the next highest player in the Norwich squad. It’s also the second highest in the division.

He’s committed two or more fouls in each of his last five matches and throughout the season his consistency in this market has been remarkable.

Mattsson has made two or more fouls in nine of his 10 Championship starts. He’s racked up as many as five on two occasions and four on another.

Another important part of the Mattson selection is the correlation with Oliver Skipp drawing fouls for Charlton. This was another selection I took last week.

Skipp was fouled twice in just 45 minutes in the defeat to Watford and has been fouled in five of his seven appearances on loan at Charlton.

He’s drawn an average of 1.43 per 90 minutes and with Mattsson lining up on the other side and being such a frequent fouler, the two selections should go hand-in-hand.

A Mattsson foul or two on Skipp would be the perfect set up for the bet builder.

Leaburn’s foul numbers are off the chart. He’s made 24 fouls this season, that’s six more than the aforementioned Conor Coventry who was averaging 1.82 fouls per 90 minutes.

By comparison, Leaburn is racking up a huge 2.73 fouls per 90 minutes this season. His 24 fouls ranks him third in the Championship.

Leaburn plays off the front so will come in to contact with defenders and midfield. Again, coming back to Mattsson who is a big foul drawer, the 10th highest in the division in-fact.

Cordoba and McConville do combine for just above 1.00 fouls per 90 minutes too, with 11 between them so far this campaign.

I think Roma can avoid defeat when they travel to Napoli on Saturday evening.

Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have made a quietly impressive start to the season, remaining unbeaten in Serie A with five wins and two draws from their opening seven matches.

The capital club have already held Inter Milan to a 2-2 draw at home, while they battled to a spirited 0-0 draw away at Como after receiving a red card early in the second half.

As for Napoli, their start to the season has been a lot more mixed, with Max Allegri’s men winning three, drawing one and losing three of their opening seven league games.

Notably, Napoli have already lost to both Inter and Como this season, and suffered a 1-0 defeat away at Venezia in their most recent Serie A outing.

The hosts may have beaten Bodo/Glimt 4-3 in the Champions League in midweek, but defeats to Arsenal and Villarreal in their opening two matches strengthen the case for Roma on the double chance.

Look for Napoli and Roma to combine for at least 9 match corners at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Saturday evening.

The Partenopei’s fixtures have been particularly corner-heavy across the opening seven rounds of Serie A, producing an average of 10.71 corners per game.

Much of that is down to Max Allegri’s men, who have averaged 6.43 corners per 90, a tally bettered only by Como and Juventus.

On closer inspection, all 7 of Napoli’s league games this season have featured at least 9 corners, with the hosts winning 9 or more themselves in two of those matches, including last week’s defeat to Venezia.

Roma should contribute, too. They have averaged 5.14 corners per game in Serie A this term and forced 8 in both their away win at Torino and their Champions League win against Slovan Bratislava earlier this week.

Donyell Malen has been one of Roma’s standout performers this season, and I’m backing the Dutchman to have at least one shot on target.

The former Aston Villa forward has scored 6 goals in as many Serie A appearances this season and is expected to return to the starting XI after serving a suspension against Genoa last week.

Moreover, Malen was back in the side in midweek, scoring against Slovan Bratislava after bagging a brace against Real Madrid the week before.

His goalscoring output can be attributed to a sizeable average of 2.26 shots on target per game in Serie A this season, with Malen hitting the target at least once in five of his six outings and recording 2+ on-target efforts in three of those contests.

Napoli have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 3 matches, conceding 3 goals and allowing 15 shots against Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday night, further strengthening the case for Malen to register at least one shot on target here.

Scott McTominay is a player I always like to target in the shots market, and he looks worth backing to attempt two or more efforts against Roma on Saturday evening.

After a spell on the sidelines, the Scotland international has returned to the Napoli side in recent weeks and his impact has been noteworthy.

Indeed, McTominay scored twice from 7 attempts against Bodo/Glimt on Tuesday night.

The week before, he came off the bench against Villarreal and had 2 efforts in a half-hour run-out.

He also racked up 6 attempts across the full 90 minutes in Napoli’s defeat at Venezia last weekend, underlining his shoot-on-sight approach.

Further encouragement comes from the fact that McTominay averaged 3.16 attempts per game in Serie A last season, adding to the appeal of backing him to let fly at least twice against Roma.

Arsenal played really well at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League during the week, earning a point thanks to a late equaliser from Declan Rice.

Arteta’s side controlled the game and only conceded to a wonderful defence splitting pass from Harry Kane and a penalty, which the former Tottenham man also converted.

Arsenal have won six of their seven Premier League games this season, with the exception of that 3-0 defeat to Brighton - who are proving to be one of the best sides in the league this term.

Arsenal have won three of their games at home in the Premier League this term, scoring seven goals and only conceding twice. 

They also have a great record against Arteta’s former side at the Emirates under his tenure, winning four of the last five clashes between the teams in North London.

Everton have conceded 2+ goals in both of their matches since the international break against Hull and Chelsea, also notably failing to win any of their three away matches this term.

Everton’s defeat against Chelsea had a few moments of controversy - the most notable of which involved Morgan Rogers. He was lucky to avoid a second booking following a challenge on James Garner. It was a feisty affair last weekend, with a total of seven yellow cards dished out.

Arsenal are drawing an average of 2.66 cards per game across all competitions this season, which shows just how difficult they have been to contain. In fact, their opponents have picked up multiple bookings in eight out of 12 overall, clearing this line on their own in four of those. Based on that, Everton could have their work cut out defensively.

Jack Grealish is one of Everton's main threats here, and he is averaging 2.87 fouls drawn per 90 for Everton this season. 

The former Man City man is perhaps the best player in the Premier League at drawing contact and buying soft free-kicks, and he is likely to see plenty of involvement out on that left wing at the Emirates.

Grealish had an average of 3.29 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions last season, which was comfortably the highest figure in the Everton squad, and he was fouled twice in his only appearances against the Gunners.

Everton didn’t have many opportunities against Chelsea last weekend, recording a total of just six efforts. However, Thierno Barry still managed to land this selection with ease - he managed three shots, and they all hit the target.

The Frenchman has been effective at finding chances in the final third this season, but he has been a bit wasteful at times. Still, Barry is averaging an eye-catching 4.29 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, with six goals to his name. 

He will be Everton’s main outlet in transition this weekend, so this price stands out, even in a tough matchup. Barry has landed this selection in eight of his nine starts this campaign.

Johan Manzambi is a doubt for this game, which is a real blow for Villa as he’s started the season really well, but Jackson has been the other standout across the opening months of the season for Unai Emery’s side.

Jackson has long received criticism he doesn’t really deserve, it’s true that he could be a bit more clinical with the positions he gets in - but the fact he keeps getting in these situations is a real positive, as is his ability to carry the ball and bring others into play.

It’s also notable that he’s being coached by Unai Emery now, who has made a habit of improving strikers just like Jackson - with Watkins’ rise as a top striker being mainly down to the advice of Emery.

Jackson has scored two goals across his six starts in the Premier League this season, taking 16 shots across these matches (3.07 per 90) and seeing five of these efforts find the target (0.96 per 90).

Jeremy Doku will be the danger man for the visitors.

The Belgian international was a standout performer against Liverpool a few weeks ago, coming off the bench to get Ryan Gravenberch sent off, before scoring a wonderful goal at Anfield. He followed that up by landing this bet against PSG at the Etihad.

After finishing last season on a real high, Doku has carried that momentum into the new campaign, and he is playing with confidence at the moment. Additionally, he has had plenty of time to recover prior to this match, after being rested against AEK Athens midweek.

Bukayo Saka lasted just ten minutes against Bayern Munich midweek before being substituted due to injury, which means Noni Madueke should start on the right wing this weekend. He scored the decisive goal against Nottingham Forest last weekend to earn his side a big three points, so he should be full of confidence. 

Everton were most recently beaten 2-0 by Chelsea, with both goals scored by Pedro Neto. The Portuguese international operates on the right wing, the same position as Madueke, which bodes well for this selection.

Jack Rudoni has scored in back-to-back Premier League matches heading into this match, so he is one to keep an eye on here. The 25-year-old scored the opening goal as Coventry beat Newcastle 4-1, before again getting on the scoresheet against Spurs on Monday night.

Rudoni has accrued a total of 12 shots this season, averaging 2.03 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he tends to be accurate when chances fall to his feet. 

Exactly half of his efforts have hit the target, and Rudoni already has three goals to his name across all competitions. Rudoni bagged seven goals in 30 Championship appearances last season for Coventry, and he has looked comfortable in the top flight so far.

James Maddison marked his first Tottenham start since May 2025 with a goal during Monday’s 3-1 victory over Coventry. The midfielder opened the scoring with a curling effort from outside the penalty area, which nestled into the top corner. That kind of individual magic is exactly what Spurs have been missing over the last few months. 

Prior to his start against Coventry, Maddison made three successive appearances off the bench, and he landed this selection in two of those. That includes two shots on target against Liverpool in the EFL Cup, despite only playing 15 minutes. Maddison has looked sharp, and eager to get back to his previous levels, so he is one to target in the final third in this London derby at Stamford Bridge. 

If you look at the league table, it looks like Forest are struggling quite a bit - but that’s not the same story when you look over their underlying numbers.

Only Manchester City (+8) have a higher expected points difference than Forest (-7) this season, a jump that would see them move 15 places up the league table.

Ipswich have done well to win three of their opening seven matches, but only Palace (17) have conceded more goals than the Tractor Boys this term (15) and I think that defensive vulnerability will catch up with them.

Forest have won the xG battle in two of their last three defeats, with the exception of their 1-0 loss to Arsenal. Glasner’s side have to get a bit of luck eventually, and I think we could see Ipswich's defensive issues catch up with them here with Gibbs-White also set to return to the Forest line up. 

Inter look on course to mount another title challenge after winning the league with ease last season, and this looks like a winnable game at home against a Fiorentina side who have lost their last two matches.

Fiorentina have been in turmoil ever since they reached the Conference League final a few seasons ago. They almost got relegated after a really poor start to the season last year and have only managed to win one of their opening seven matches this term, losing five of those games.

Inter have won six of their opening seven matches, with the exception of a 2-2 draw on the road against Roma - who also look like challenging for the Scudetto this season. Inter have won all four of their games at home in Serie A this term, scoring 15 goals in the process.

They’ve beaten Fiorentina in each of the last three head to head meetings as the home side, coinciding with Fiorentina’s downturn as a club over the last few years.

This will be a massive test for Feyenoord as they try to prise the Eredivisie title away from PSV, who have been crowned champions in each of the last two seasons.

Feyenoord have avoided defeat in all of their nine games in the Eredivisie this term, winning seven of them and scoring more goals than any other side in the division (31 - 3.44 per game).

They’ve also won all five of their away matches, netting 20 goals in the process. Their preparation for this potential six pointer in the title race couldn’t be better, but PSV will be just as motivated to ensure they don’t lose more ground in the fight for the Eredivisie title.

PSV have scored 13 goals across their four games in the Eredivisie this term, but have only managed to keep a clean sheet in one of these matches. In fact, PSV have only kept one shutout all season - most recently conceding twice and seeing BTTS against a newly promoted Den Haag side. 

Brighton have been the most exciting team to watch in the Premier League so far this season, scoring more goals than any other side in the division across their opening seven matches (23 - 3.29 per game).

Fabian Hurzeler’s side have seen 3+ goals in five of these games, covering this line on their own on four of those occasions. They also saw 3+ goals in their EFL Cup victory over United, as well as their opening game of the Conference League - beating Kauno 4-0.

Liverpool have been playing some really chaotic, but entertaining, football under Iraola so far. They’ve had to come from behind in each of their last two matches, seeing 3+ goals in each of their last four matches.

Liverpool have conceded 2+ goals in three of these matches, so there should be opportunities for Brighton to extend their impressive scoring record at the start of this season. 

Hoffenheim covered this line on their own on Thursday, beating a rotated Lyon side 3-0 with an xG of 2.09 from 22 shots.

They’ve seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches - and in every single Bundesliga game this term. Overall, Hoffenheim have seen 25 goals across their six games in the German top flight (4.16 per game).

Leverkusen come into this game in excellent form having won each of their last five matches, seeing 3+ goals in three of these matches. Their three away matches in the Bundesliga have produced 16 goals (5.33 per game), 64% of their total goals have come on the road.

This tends to be an entertaining fixture too, nine of the last ten head to head meetings between the sides have seen 3+ goals.

Enzo Fernandez is averaging 1.45 fouls per 90 since arriving at Man City, and he has landed this selection in three of his seven starts. This upcoming matchup against Aston Villa looks like an excellent chance for the Argentina international to improve his hit-rate, as Fernandez will find duels against the likes of Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Emi Buendia in midfield. There is also a chance Johan Manzambi will be available again, after he missed out against Viking midweek. 

Unai Emery’s men were fouled 14 times in the Champions League midweek, and 14 times again by Newcastle last time out in the league. A lot of those fouls are concentrated in midfield areas, which makes Fernandez a target at Villa Park.

James Garner has only committed six fouls in his eight starts across all competitions this season, averaging 0.81 fouls per 90, but this will be one of his toughest matchups of the campaign. The Everton midfielder will find duels against the likes of Myles Lewis-Skelly, Eberechi Eze and Bruno Guimaraes - players who are adept at drawing contact. 

Arsenal were fouled 15 times by Bayern Munich midweek, taking their average to 14.1 fouls drawn per game this season. That is a notable increase on their average of 11.5 fouls drawn per 90 last season. Mikel Arteta’s men have been a bit more direct this campaign, with their games a bit more scrappy than controlled, so Everton are unlikely to be penned into their own box.

After securing their first Premier League win of the season against Hull last time out, Fulham will look to build on that this weekend. Josh King looks set to start in the advanced midfield spot again, and the 19-year-old has been a standout performer so far.

He was fouled four times against Hull last time out, taking this average of 1.79 fouls drawn per 90 this season, which is one of the highest figures in the Fulham squad. 

He will find duels against Caleb Yirenki in midfield at the Coventry Building Society Stadium here - the Ghanaian international is averaging 3.28 fouls per 90 this campaign.

James Maddison played a key role as Spurs beat Coventry last weekend, which was also their first win of the season. On his first start this term, Maddison scored from outside the box, and he was also fouled four times before being replaced after 70 minutes.

Maddison looks set for a big role this season under Roberto De Zerbi, and he seems to be back at full fitness. This is perhaps the biggest fixture of gameweek eight in the Premier League, as Spurs travel to Stamford Bridge. Last time these sides met, there were 29 fouls in the game, and the reverse fixture saw 26 infringements.

Another player who has been adept at drawing fouls this season is Joao Pedro. The Brazilian is averaging 2.34 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions.

Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers have also been difficult to contain, averaging 3.03 fouls drawn per 90 combined. Jan Paul Van Hecke will have the tough task of trying to contain that trio, and it could be a tough evening for the Dutchman. 

Van Hecke is averaging 1.3 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in seven of his eight starts. He has also picked up two yellow cards in that time.

The centre back likes to be aggressive in his duels, and this is an excellent matchup to target him.

Palmer was shooting from everywhere against Everton last time out, managing six shots in total - with one of those attempts finding the target.

Palmer is not very selective with his efforts, one of those shots was an audacious lob over Pickford which narrowly missed the target. His willingness to consistently take on these types of attempts makes him a good player to find the target at least twice.

Palmer has had more shots than any other Chelsea player this season (23 - 3.33 per 90), with only Joao Pedro and Pedro Neto (8) having more efforts on target for Chelsea so far this campaign.

Only two Chelsea players had more shots on target than Palmer (25) in the Premier League last season, with that being a version of the former City man that was battling with injury and not playing with the confidence we see from him now.

Palmer has also had 3+ shots in each of his last three matches against Tottenham, finding the target twice in two of these games. 

I needed Kudus to be fouled three times for my 20/1 Tottenham v Coventry High Odds BB last week, and the selection landed through Super Sub with Kulusevski coming on for Kudus and winning the final foul needed.

Kudus is a player that Spurs have missed for a while, they don’t have many players as comfortable at carrying the ball as Kudus is - with this trait also making him a good player to back to win fouls, especially against a Chelsea side who can still be a bit petulant.

Kudus has won more fouls than any other Tottenham player so far this season (9 - 2.93 per 90). This is a small sample size, but it’s long been a strong part of Kudus’ game, if you go back to his final season at West Ham - Kudus averaged 2.21 fouls won per 90, and crucially 3.18 dribbles per 90.

Kudus has been fouled in each of his last five Premier League matches, winning multiple fouls in three of these games. 

Levi Colwill is one of the few Chelsea players that has a personal connection to this game, having come through the youth ranks at Chelsea.

He’s collected one yellow card this season, which he picked up against Fulham on Matchday 1 in the West London derby. He hasn’t played Tottenham for a few seasons due to injury, so he’ll relish this clash.

Colwill’s last full season was the 2024/25 campaign, where he picked up nine yellow cards across just 35 starts - only Moises Caicedo (11) picked up more cautions for the Blues during that campaign.

He’ll be up against another Cobham product in Dominic Solanke, who can be quite clever with his body. It’s also notable that Colwill will be on the same side as Kudus (2.93 fouls won per 90), I can see the Chelsea centre back having to make a tactical foul against the winger when Hato gets caught higher up the pitch. 

Micky Van de Ven was cautioned in this fixture last season and will be up against Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer here, who could both cause him real issues.

Van de Ven relies too much on his speed. It’s an impressive asset to have, but it’s not very helpful against strikers like Joao Pedro who are comfortable with getting the ball into feet and turning.

Joao Pedro has won 14 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season (2.42 per 90), underlining just how impressive his hold up play has been this season.

Cole Palmer will also be operating in pockets around the Dutchman, and can easily drag him out of position with his clever movement. He’s the second most fouled player in the Chelsea squad this term (12), so Van de Ven has the two most fouled Chelsea players this season as his direct opponents here.  

Philadelphia have recovered from a sluggish start to the campaign and enter this game having avoided defeat in each of their last 12 matches - winning nine of these games and scoring at least twice in 11 of them.

They’ve only lost three of their 15 home games this term, with the majority of their poor results coming in the early period of the campaign. Cavan Sullivan has been a particular standout, registering 14 goal contributions across just 20 starts in the MLS this term.

New England sit above Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference, but the majority of their convincing performances came in the early parts of the season. They’ve lost 3-0 twice across their last five matches, and have conceded 25 goals across their 15 away assignments this term.

Philadelphia also have an excellent historical head to head record against New England, winning each of the last five clashes as the home side. The most recent win was a 1-0 triumph in September last year, where New England were limited to an xG of 0.44.

Orlando have been one of the most chaotic sides in the MLS this term, seeing BTTS in 70% of their 30 matches this season.

They’ve conceded more goals than any other side in the Eastern Conference (70), but still sit in a playoff spot - suggesting that Orlando are more than comfortable in high scoring matches.

Their 15 home games in the MLS have produced 50 goals (3.33 per game), yet they’ve still managed to win nine of these games. Only two sides in the Eastern Conference have picked up more points at home than Orlando, so it clearly works for them.

New York have failed to win any of their last five matches, but will feel confident of scoring against the worst defence in the league having still managed to score in three of those matches. 

Four of the last five head to head meetings between these sides has seen BTTS, with the exception of New York’s 5-0 win over Orlando last time out - though Orlando were reduced to 10 men after just 18 minutes of that clash.

It’s getting to a crucial stage in the season for Real Salt Lake, who sit three points outside of the playoff spots in the Western Conference and need to find form soon having won just two of their last 15 matches.

Despite this rocky form, Real Salt Lake have still managed to maintain a decent scoring power - scoring in 80% of their matches this season. They’ve netted 28 goals across their 15 home games, working out to an average of 1.86 goals per game.

St Louis have done very well to rival Vancouver Whitecaps in the Western Conference this term, but their away games have been very open. They’ve seen 44 goals across their 15 away assignments (2.93 per game).

Each of the last six head to head meetings between these sides has seen BTTS. With Real Salt Lake needing to pick up points to make the playoffs, and St Louis seeing a very high volume of goals on the road - BTTS looks likely.

Only one side has picked up more points at home than Colorado in the Western Conference this term, and I think they can get on the scoresheet against a Vancouver outfit who boast the best away record of any side in the division.

Vancouver have been the team to watch in the Western Conference for some time, they’ve netted 28 goals across their 15 away assignments - the second highest tally of any side in the Western Conference, behind Dallas (29).

Colorado have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, notably failing to win any of these games. They’ve scored twice in three of those matches, suggesting that their scoring power isn’t really the issue.

These sides met back in April, with BTTS landing on that occasion as Vancouver came away 3-1 winners over Colorado at home. That game saw both sides register an xG in excess of 1.0 (3.79-1.65). 

It has been a tough start to the season for both Coventry and Hull, who both find themselves batting near the relegation zone, but they have shown glimpses of improvement recently. Coventry have scored six goals in their last three Premier League matches, picking up six points in that time. Meanwhile, Fulham finally secured their first three points against Hull.

Both teams will view this as a winnable fixture, and three points will go a long way, so they should be front-footed in their approach. BTTS has landed in three of the last four games for Fulham, while Coventry have seen a total of nine goals scored in their last two games.

There were plenty of positives for Alvaro Arbeloa to take from the weekend, as his side looked strong going forward against Hull. They generated 1.38xG from their 18 shots, carving out four big chances. The Cottagers cleared this line with ease, finishing the match with ten corners. 

That takes Fulham’s average to 6.3 corners per game across all competitions, which is notably high considering their poor results. They haven’t struggled to create chances and get to the byline, the Fulham’s tendency to utilise width when they attack means corners is a market to keep an eye on again this weekend.

Alex Iwobi stole the headlines as it was his goal which ultimately proved decisive, but Josh King was another standout performer in midfield, which has been a familiar theme this campaign. The 19-year-old is averaging 2.63 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, landing this selection in six out of seven starts overall. That includes three shots against Hull last weekend. 

Once again, this looks like a favourable matchup to target King. Coventry are averaging just 41% possession since their promotion to the Premier League, which has resulted in their opponents averaging 16.8 shots per game.

King is given plenty of freedom in that advanced midfield position, and he does at times look to drop deeper to get on the ball. He is averaging 1.86 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season which is the highest figure in the Fulham squad. He will now be up against Caleb Yirenki in midfield, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on. 

Yirenkyi committed three fouls during Coventry’s 3-1 defeat at Tottenham on Monday, landing this selection despite being replaced after an hour. He also received a yellow card against the Lilywhites. Yirenki is averaging 3.28 fouls per 90 as a Coventry player, landing this selection in five of his seven starts overall.

Brandon Thomas-Asante was a constant threat for Coventry going forward on Monday night, and he was fouled a total of four times. The winger is averaging 3.68 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions, landing this selection in six out of eight appearances in total. Impressively, Thomas-Asante has landed this bet twice even when coming off the bench. 

He is one of Coventry’s most direct players, always looking to isolate defenders one-on-one and beat them. Thomas-Asante has been deployed by Frank Lampard all across the front line, highlighting his versatility, and he will find duels against a Fulham backline who combined for five fouls against Hull last time out.  

Emi Buendia has been an underrated player in this Villa side for some time, registering 20 goal contributions across all competitions for Unai Emery’s side last season - with the Argentine having a record of delivering against the elite sides in the division.

Buendia bundled home Villa’s winner against Arsenal at Villa Park last season, as well as scoring in the quarter finals, semi finals and final of the Europa League as Villa lifted the trophy. He’s already scored against Tottenham and Club Brugge this season, as well as netting against Viking in the Champions League during the week.

Buendia has had 14 shots in total across his seven starts in the Premier League (2.33 per 90). We’d need him to be more clinical with his efforts here, as only two of those have found the target, but he’s emerged as Unai Emery’s surprise package over the last year and can be a threat to City here. 

I love this market for players like Enzo Fernandez, who is equally as likely to lose his head, as he is to score a brilliant goal.

We know that Enzo Maresca sees Fernandez as more of a box to box midfielder, rather than a player that will sit deep and dictate the game. This is why City opted for Bouaddi and Anderson over the summer, Fernandez was never expected to play that deeper role.

Fernandez has scored one goal for City so far, with that strike coming against Sunderland from a clever free kick. He’s had eight shots in total (1.83 per 90), with the majority of these efforts coming when Fernandez ghosts into the box when the ball has gone wide.

This is particularly effective for City as they have Haaland as a constant box presence who takes most of the attention from opposition centre backs, opening space for Fernandez to arrive in the box.

Fernandez has also collected one yellow card so far this term, picking up that caution in the Manchester derby. He reached double digits for goals and cards last season (10), underlining why Fernandez is a good player to back in this market.

No side has won more fouls in the Premier League than Aston Villa since Unai Emery took over, and that’s not a coincidence.

Villa have topped the foul won rankings in each of the last two seasons, and it’s linked to how they set up. Most of Villa’s play tends to be quite narrow, with the wide forwards not really operating as wingers and the fullbacks carrying the width.

Only three Villa players have won more fouls than Cash (8 - 1.51 per 90) in the Premier League this season, with the fullback drawing at least one foul in four of his last five games.

He’ll be in a tangle with Doku for most of the game, but when Cash can get forward he will be an asset to Villa and a target to be hauled down as one of the main outlets in this Villa side.

I think Unai Emery is going to task John McGinn with keeping an eye on Jeremy Doku here to help out Matty Cash, with the Belgian winger often requiring at least two pairs of hands.

McGinn is almost as good at winning fouls as Doku, though they go about it slightly differently. Doku won 61 fouls in the Premier League last season, more than any other City player (3.08 per 90). He attempted 7.47 dribbles per 90, also more than anyone else in the squad, which is a good indicator for winning fouls.

McGinn has picked up two yellow cards across his six Premier League starts already this season, and is a reliable player to assign a role like this to. He’s also collected a yellow card in the Champions League this term, as well as picking up a caution for Scotland over the recent international break.

I think Falkirk’s clash with Kilmarnock in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday will be a lot closer than the pre-match odds suggest.

The hosts are heavy favourites, but they are unlikely to have things all their own way, which is why Killie look worth backing to score at least once.

Neil McCann’s visitors have been showing signs of life of late, climbing off the foot of the table with a 3-2 win over Motherwell last weekend.

Before that, Kilmarnock scored away to both Rangers and Hibs, either side of a 1-1 draw at home to Hearts.

That shows they are more than capable of making their mark against a Falkirk side that have found clean sheets hard to come by this season.

Indeed, the Bairns have failed to keep the back door shut in eight of their nine Scottish Premiership matches this term, including all four of their games at the Falkirk Stadium.

St Mirren are unappealing favourites when they host Dundee in the Scottish Premiership on Saturday, with the visitors the more attractive option on the double chance.

The Dark Blues have made a mightily impressive start to the season and go into the weekend sitting 4th in the table.

Steven Pressley’s side followed back-to-back wins over Motherwell and Falkirk with a battling display to claim a well-deserved 2-2 draw against Rangers last Saturday.

They will be quietly confident of extending their unbeaten run against a St Mirren side that have gone into freefall after their strong start to the season.

The Saints have lost each of their last five Scottish Premiership matches and are now without a win in their last three top-flight games on home turf.

As such, Dundee look well placed to pick up at least a point in Paisley.

Hamilton can extend their Scottish League One winning run to seven matches by seeing off East Fife at home on Saturday.

The Accies are one of only two teams yet to lose a league game in the SPFL this season. 

It has perhaps gone unnoticed that they are keeping pace with Ross County, sitting level on points with the league leaders, who are above them on goal difference.

Darian MacKinnon’s men passed another stern test last week by claiming a 2-1 win away at North Lanarkshire rivals Airdrie.

That was Hamilton’s fourth consecutive league victory in which they scored multiple goals. 

I would expect them to continue in that vein against an East Fife side that have endured a difficult start to the season and recently parted company with manager Dick Campbell.

The Fifers sit second from bottom in the table and were thrashed 3-0 at home by Alloa last weekend.

The visitors have now lost three of their last four league games, conceding multiple goals in each defeat.

Montrose have done most of their best work at home this season, and they can pick up another positive result by at least avoiding defeat against Peterhead on Saturday.

Montrose were enjoying a five-match winning run in Scottish League One before suffering back-to-back defeats against Airdrie and Ross County. 

However, they stopped the rot last weekend by battling their way to a 1-1 draw away at East Kilbride.

A home game against Peterhead this weekend represents a good opportunity for Stuart Petrie’s side to put another three points on the board.

While the Blue Toon claimed a 2-0 win over bottom-of-the-table Cove Rangers last weekend, they had failed to win any of their seven league games before that, losing six of those.

It is also worth noting that Montrose beat Peterhead 3-0 in the reverse fixture only last month, adding further weight to backing the hosts on the double chance here.

Ross County continue to score goals at a remarkable rate, and they can add to their tally when they host Airdrie on Saturday.

Stuart Kettlewell’s side scored four in their last home league game against Alloa. 

Since then, the Staggies have gone on the road to fire five past Montrose and seven past Queen of the South, maintaining their place at the top of the table.

A closer look shows that County have scored multiple goals in eight of their nine league wins this season, including their away victory over Airdrie.

The Diamonds have shown signs of improvement of late, but their four-match unbeaten run came to an end when they lost 2-1 at home to rivals Hamilton last week.

John Rankin’s team also conceded twice in their last away game, a draw against East Kilbride. 

That strengthens the case for Ross County to claim another three points and score at least twice in the process.

Aston Villa have recovered from a sluggish start to the campaign, just as they did last year, and enter this clash having avoided defeat in each of their last seven matches - winning six of these games.

They’ve only kept two clean sheets during this run, against Newcastle and Fenerbahce, but still conceded an xG of 0.99 or higher in both of those games. Lindelof and Mings are not that convincing a pairing, and I think both will struggle to deal with Haaland.

City have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches ahead of this clash, conceding twice against Ipswich in their last home game. I still think there are issues for Maresca to address with City’s rest defence - a weakness that Jackson is perfect to exploit as a solid ball carrier.

Sassuolo just can't seem to keep a clean sheet in Serie A, with BTTS landing in every single one of their games this season.

It's been the same story away from home. They've scored in all four games, but they've also conceded at least twice in every one of them.

They've averaged 17 shots per game away from home, but have also allowed 17 at the other end, which helps explain why we're seeing four goals per game.

Como smashed Manchester United 4-1 in midweek and have been putting up some impressive attacking numbers themselves, averaging 18.80 shots per game.

The problem for the home side is that they've only managed one clean sheet all season.

Nico Paz has taken more shots than anyone else in Serie A and has scored three goals in his last two games. He's also been confirmed to play.

With Como's number 10 available and Berardi expected to start for Sassuolo, there's even more reason to expect goals from both sides here.

Both teams have scored in all six of Werder Bremen's Bundesliga games this season, including a 2-2 draw against Dortmund, who have the best defence in the league.

There's no denying Bremen have looked dangerous going forward against teams like Leipzig and Freiburg, but they're also giving up an average of 15 shots per game and making plenty of mistakes at the back.

They even conceded twice at home against Paderborn last time out, who were third from bottom going into that game.

Mainz have been just as unpredictable, with some crazy games lately, including two 4-3 scorelines. They've even struggled defensively against bottom side Mönchengladbach.

The good news for both teams is that they have two of the Bundesliga's top scorers, with Niclas Füllkrug on six goals and Phillip Tietz on five.

With neither defence looking capable of keeping a clean sheet and both teams having strikers in such good form, this has all the makings of another goal-filled Bundesliga game.

Both teams have scored in every Racing Santander home game this season, with Racing still unbeaten at home and scoring at least twice in each of those La Liga matches.

Their games have been full of goals, partly because of their defence, which is the worst in the league with 25 goals conceded in nine games.

Against Barcelona, for example, they managed to score twice against the league leaders but ended up conceding seven.

Espanyol have been pretty consistent going forward too, scoring in all four of their away games in La Liga this season.

They'll have a good chance of keeping that run going, with Racing allowing an average of 16 shots per game and having an xGA of 2.34.

Racing keep finding the net at home, but with a defence this shaky, Espanyol should get plenty of chances to score too.

HamKam haven't kept a clean sheet in their last five home games and now face a Rosenborg side that's scored 12 goals in their last five away matches.

HamKam's defensive problems are nothing new. They've conceded the third-most goals in the Eliteserien, with 48 goals allowed in 23 games and an xGA of 1.87.

Their attack has been much more reliable, though. They've only failed to score in one of their 11 home games this season, and that came last time out against league leaders Bodø/Glimt, who have the best defence in the league.

Rosenborg have been playing better and scoring plenty of goals, but their defence isn't exactly solid either. They have an away xGA of 1.91 and have conceded 10 goals in their last five away games.

They've been giving opponents plenty of chances too, allowing an average of 15 shots and 5.6 shots on target per away game.

With both teams scoring regularly but struggling to keep goals out, it wouldn't be a surprise to see goals at both ends here.

ADO Den Haag still haven't managed a clean sheet this season, having conceded in all nine Eredivisie games so far.

They come into this one after a big 2-1 home win against PSV, with BTTS now landing in all four of their home games.

Their attack has found the net in the last three games and has already shown it can cause problems for even the best defences. 

Away to Feyenoord, for example, Den Haag went 2-0 up before letting their opponents come back to draw.

Heerenveen's away games have been pretty entertaining too, with 2-2 draws against Ajax and Willem II, as well as a 4-0 win over Sparta Rotterdam.

They've actually been more comfortable away from home, scoring more goals on the road than they have in front of their own fans.

Den Haag are getting better going forward but still allowing an average of 17 shots per game, while Heerenveen have been looking dangerous away from home. That makes another game with goals at both ends look pretty likely.

Matty Cash will have a tough job trying to stop Jérémy Doku, who's being fouled an average of 3.72 times per 90 minutes this season.

Doku completed 84 successful dribbles in the Premier League last season, more than anyone else, and was also the fourth most fouled player in the league.

The Aston Villa right-back has already picked up three yellow cards this season and has been giving away fouls regularly, averaging 2.08 per 90 minutes in the Premier League.

That's nothing new for Cash, either. He picked up more yellow cards than anyone else at Villa last season, with nine.

Peter Bankes has averaged four cards per game in his four Premier League matches this season, and he even booked Cash in the defeat to Brighton.

With Doku being such a tricky player to deal with and a referee who doesn't let too much go, Cash could be in for a tough afternoon against City.

Jan Paul van Hecke has given away at least one foul in all seven of his Premier League games this season and has picked up two yellow cards in his last three matches.

He also finished last season with nine yellow cards in 36 games, seven of them coming away from home.

He'll mainly be up against João Pedro, who's been fouled more than anyone else at Chelsea this season, averaging 2.33 per game.

If he plays on the right side of Tottenham's central defence, van Hecke could also come up against Morgan Rogers, who plays on the left side of the attack and has been fouled six times in three home games.

Chris Kavanagh has been showing plenty of cards this season, handing out at least five in each of his five Premier League games so far.

With such dangerous players to deal with and a referee who's shown three red cards in his last three games, things aren't looking great for van Hecke this Saturday.