I don’t think this Celtic side are playing well enough to claim a first leg lead against Stuttgart on Thursday night. Martin O’Neill’s men have been making heavy weather of their domestic fixtures in recent weeks, repeatedly relying on late goals - and even extra time on one occasion - to get over the line. That’s not sustainable, especially stepping back onto the European stage against stronger opposition. What’s more, Celtic failed to impress for large stretches of the league phase, notably losing two of their four home matches.

Stuttgart, in contrast, ended their league phase campaign strongly by winning four of their final five fixtures. The case for siding with the visitors is reinforced by the fact that they have lost just one of their last nine Bundesliga matches, winning three of their last four on the road, including a stunning 4-1 victory at Bayer Leverkusen. So, with all things considered, I think the German side look well worth backing on the double chance market in Glasgow on Thursday night.

I think this has the makings of being one of the more entertaining ties from this season’s set of Europa League play-off fixtures, with over 1.5 goals in Thursday night’s first leg looking well within reach. It would be fair to suggest that the strengths of both sides lie in attack, which should lend itself to an open, end-to-end encounter in Glasgow’s East End.

Moreover, each of Celtic’s eight league phase assignments delivered a minimum of two goals, with six of those contests breaking the over 2.5 goal barrier. It’s been a similar story in the Scottish Premiership this season, with 20 of the Hoops’ 26 top-flight fixtures yielding over 1.5 goals, including 11 of their last 12.

Stuttgart were also reliable on the over 1.5 goals front during the league phase, as all but one of their eight assignments generated two or more strikes. The fact that each of Stuttgart’s 11 Bundesliga away matches this season has produced over 1.5 goals only adds to the appeal of siding with this selection at Parkhead on Thursday night.

Callum McGregor has been one of my go-to Celtic players in the foul markets this season, and for good reason. The Celtic skipper committed at least one foul in six of his eight league phase appearances, conceding multiple free kicks in three of those outings. The 32-year-old has also been a regular offender in the Scottish Premiership this term, averaging 1.00 fouls per 90 minutes and overstepping the mark at least once in 10 of his 13 appearances at Celtic Park.

Typically deployed as the deepest of Celtic’s midfield three, McGregor is likely to be tasked with keeping close tabs on Stuttgart’s Deniz Undav. The German international represents one of Stuttgart’s biggest attacking threats, and he regularly gets close attention from his direct markers. That is underlined by the fact that Undav has drawn an average of 1.73 fouls per game in this season’s Europa League, making the aforementioned McGregor a prime candidate to be penalised at least once during Thursday night’s first leg.

Sebastian Tounekti has been one of Celtic’s standout performers in recent weeks. The Tunisian winger has shown on more than one occasion this season that he possesses a real knack for cutting in from the left and getting efforts away. He did so to telling effect at Kilmarnock on Sunday, giving Celtic a lifeline and helping set the wheels in motion for their comeback win.

Moreover, Tounekti is averaging 2.49 shots per game in the Scottish Premiership this season, racking up a combined total of seven efforts across his last two outings, four of which came as a second half substitute on Sunday. On the back of that display, I would expect Tounekti to start here, and he appeals to register 2+ shots, as he did at home to Braga during the league phase.

While Stuttgart are rightful favourites for this clash, they have been far from watertight at the back this season and are likely to give up opportunities on Thursday night. The fact that Sebastian Hoeness’ side have conceded an average north of 12 shots per game on their Europa League travels this term, only strengthens the case for Tounekti to try his luck at least twice.

Although Palace are understandable favourites to come out on top here, they’ve been priced as short as 1.3 to do so. The evidence suggests that the value lies in backing Zrinjski with a +2 handicap at an implied probability of just under 60%.

Across their 14 European outings, which span the UCL, UEL, and UECL, the Bosnian outfit have avoided defeat in nine and kept within a goal of their opponents in 11. When you include their domestic results as well, Zrinjski have brought this selection home in 83% of their games.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have managed only seven victories by a 2+ goal margin, across all competitions, meaning this line has landed in 82% of their matches to date. Oliver Glasner’s men are enduring their worst run of form this season, with their last 14 consisting of eight losses, five draws, and a single win.

Zrinjski have averaged 5.57 corners per 90 domestically, exceeding the 2.5 mark in 86% of matches, including 11 out of 11 at home. Reassuringly, they’ve been similarly impressive in Europe, with this line landing in five of their six UECL games. Including their UCL and UEL qualifiers, Zrinjski have averaged over 5.7 corners per 90 at home, including at least three in all seven of those matches.

Crystal Palace have shipped 5.6 corners per 90 across their away league matches, and have afforded their opponents over 2.5 in 21 out of 26 outings across either venue. Of the five teams to fall short, three are battling for Premier League survival (Wolves, Burnley, and Tottenham).

Fenerbahce have every reason to approach this match with confidence - they have won each of their last four successive matches across all competitions, and are just three points behind Galatasaray in the Turkish Super Lig. Fenerbahce have only lost twice this season after 19 home matches across all competitions, but one of those was against another Premier League opponent, Aston Villa.

There were 10 corners in that game on matchday 7 of the Europa League, with five apiece. It was a competitive contest with chances available at both ends of the field, but it was Aston Villa who prevailed in the end. This upcoming clash could play out in a similar fashion.

Forest are averaging 10.1 corners per game this season across all competitions, but there has been a notable uptick in recent weeks. In fact, they accrued eight corners alone against Wolves last time out, and 10 corners against Leeds before that.

Fenerbahce rank 2nd-bottom for total fouls out of all teams in the Europa League this season, but that has unbelievably translated to the most yellow cards. The Turkish side also rank 5th in the competition for total yellow cards drawn, highlighting how their games tend to be incredibly feisty.

Luis Godinho was kept busy when Aston Villa travelled to the Chobani Stadium, and he dished out four yellows to the hosts, and five to the Villans. Fenerbahce have seen an average of 6.25 cards per game in the Europa League, rising considerably to 8.0 cards per game on home turf.

The Turkish side have accounted for at least three bookings in all four of their Europa League home matches this term, which shows how they really up the intensity in front of a home crowd. With the added pressure of this match being a knockout tie, this again could be a competitive affair.

Milan Skriniar has accounted for three of those yellows on home turf, which meant he had to serve a suspension against FCSB in the final league phase match. However, the Fenerbahce skipper will be available on Thursday night, and will have to play a key role if Fenerbahce are to secure a positive result.

The centre back is averaging 1.29 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, rising steeply to 1.71 when playing in the Europa League. He has been fouled in six out of seven matches in Europe this campaign, only failing against Brann, when Fenerbahce cruised to a 4-0 win. This matchup against Forest should be much closer, which means Skriniar should have much more defensive involvement.

He tends to go down easily to try and buy soft free kicks, which allows Fenerbahce to consolidate possession and get a foothold on the game.

Skriniar put in an impressive performance against Aston Villa, as he completed a clearance off the line, made a last man tackle and was also fouled once. Anderson Talisca was the busiest player at the opposite end of the field, as he racked up five shots with three on target, despite only featuring for the final 35 minutes.

The Brazilian international looks set to lead the line on Thursday night, given how he has scored four goals in his last three matches across all competitions. Talisca is averaging 5.12 shots per 90 in the Turkish Super Lig this season, and 4.86 in the Europa League. He is incredibly active in the final third, and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger when the space opens up.

He has scored 18 goals from 32 appearances across all competitions this season, and will also be the designated penalty taker for Fenerbahce.

Celtic should come into this game full of confidence having won each of their last five matches across all competitions, including a comeback from 2-0 down against Kilmarnock at the weekend.

Celtic have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of a 2-0 win over Falkirk - which can be classed as an off day for the reigning Scottish Premiership champions. Their focus is likely to be on the tight title race forming domestically, though their European campaign shows plenty of promise when it comes to goals.

Celtic have seen 28 goals across their eight matches in the Europa League this season (3.5 per game). They’ve seen 3+ goals in six of their eight matches during the league phase, with their most recent assignment in the competition producing six goals as they beat Utrecht 4-2.

Stuttgart have also seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently beating Koln at the weekend 3-1. Stuttgart have seen 24 goals across their eight matches in the Europa League this term (3.0 per game), so they are an ideal opponent for this game to be a high scoring encounter.

Fiorentina have been a bit all over the place this season, they started the campaign dreadfully and are still paying the price for that in Serie A with the club three points from safety ahead of a six pointer against Pisa at the weekend.

Fiorentina come into this game having seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, only managing to win one of these games - which was a surprise 2-1 win over Comp last time out. The Italian side have failed to keep a clean sheet across any of their last eight matches, setting up a clash in which the home side are likely to find the back of the net.

I can forgive you if you've never heard of Jagiellonia before, they hail from Poland and currently sit top of the Polish top flight - so they should have quite a bit of momentum behind them ahead of the clash. They only lost one of their six league phase matches, and saw BTTS in half of these games. They’ve held Strasbourg and Alkmaar already during this Conference League campaign, and should have enough to get on the scoresheet against Fiorentina.

Celje had quite a chaotic league phase in the Conference League, seeing 15 goals across their six matches (2.5 per game) - coming out on the right side of the result in three of these games. Five of their six matches during the league phase produced at least two goals, with the exception of a 0-0 draw against Shelbourne in their final league phase assignment.

That goalless draw should have produced at least two goals with the sides combining to generate an xG of 2.91 in that encounter. Goals are also common for Celje when looking at their displays domestically, they’ve seen 47 goals across their 11 away matches in the Slovenian top flight this term which works out to an average of 4.27 goals per game.

Less is known about Drita who won just two of their six matches during the league phase. These games produced 12 goals (2.0 per game) with Drita managing to win just one of their three home matches during the league phase. I think Celje will be the driving force behind the goals we expect in this clash, though Drita being a fairly unknown quantity could also contribute to at least two goals here.

This is a very interesting game in the Eredivisie, as these are two sides that could still find themselves in either the European battle, or the relegation race, depending on how this result goes.

The sides are level on points in the Eredivisie and are only separated by goal difference ahead of this clash - the pair are only seven points clear of the drop zone, but also only five points away from a potential spot in the Conference League next season.

Fortuna Sittard have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches ahead of this clash - notably only winning one of these games, with their 11 home matches producing 36 goals (3.27 per game).

Excelsior’s defensive record on the road is of particular concern here, they’ve conceded 23 goals across their 11 away matches in the Eredivisie this term (2.09 per game), only three sides in the Dutch top flight have conceded more goals on the road this season.

Elche are the only side in LaLiga yet to win an away game, setting Athletic Bilbao up nicely to record their seventh home win of the campaign. It’s not as though Elche have been grinding out draws on the road either - they’ve lost seven of their 11 matches away from home in LaLiga this season, conceding 22 goals across these games.

Elche’s recent form has also been pretty poor with the away side coming into this clash having failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, losing three of these games. Athletic Bilbao have been steady without being spectacular this term, but they should have the confidence and momentum to take advantage of an Elche side who are poor on the road and haven’t been able to create any momentum across recent games.

Athletic Bilbao have won three of their last five matches ahead of this clash, and have avoided defeat in eight of their 12 home matches this term. This should be enough for the home side to collect all three points in this clash, against the worst away side in the Spanish top flight this season.

Whilst I understand why this has been priced up as the outsider of the market, I actually think that there is a bit of value in the BTTS-Yes market here.

I very rarely consider historical head-to-head in my betting strategy, but the only times that I change that is when there is a local derby that has been played a lot of times in recent years in the same competition. Blackburn and Preston have been EFL Championship mainstays over the years, with Blackburn’s single season foray into League One in 2017/18 the only non-second tier season between the two of them in the last decade.

In that time, 15 out of 19 of these derbies have seen BTTS-Yes come in. That 79% rate is quite significant over a decent sample size, and has to come into the thinking here, especially when it is the underdog.

Looking at more recent data, Blackburn have lots of their attacking players back, and have added in attack in January with Mathias Jorgensen and Dapo Afolayan adding to fit again Andri Gudjohnsen. This made a huge difference in their 3-1 win at QPR, but it should also be noted that they still conceded over 2xG that game.

Preston have a strong away record overall this season, and have scored and conceded at over 1 goal per game away from home too.

This bet is supported by data on both sides of the equation, with Rovers doing well in winning corners at home, and Preston conceding a high number away from home.

Putting some flesh on those bones, I looked into Preston first, and they are carrying a 6.6 corners against per match record into this match in their away matches. Recently, they conceded nine to Ipswich, eight to Middlesbrough, and six to Bristol City in their last three away from home.

Blackburn have averaged 6.25 corners per match at home in the league, and although we have to have caution because they are under new management, we have given ourselves some headroom with the line chosen. They have beaten this line in their last three at home as well, winning eight corners against Sheffield Wednesday and Hull, and seven against Watford too.

Just as further fuel to the fire, Blackburn won seven corners in each of the Preston matches last season too.

The former Sheffield Wednesday wing back has been a surprising hit at Deepdale, with many fans feeling much more confident when Valentin is in the team. He has played the full 90 in Preston's last two league matches away from home, and also started the last match at home to Watford.

Valentin is averaging 1.23 fouls against him per 90 this season, this increases slightly to 1.32 per 90 when only considering away matches. Indeed, Valentin has been fouled in five of his six starts for Preston in away matches, including his last four in a row.

He is likely to be directly up against Eiran Cashin and Dapo Afolayan, the latter averages over a foul per 90 over a 50 game period.

This is a surprisingly big price for a player who averages over a foul per match since joining Blackburn, plays the full 90 minutes every game, and is coming off the back of two yellow cards in two matches.

Cashin looks to be being priced up as a central defender still, but he has been playing as a left back for Blackburn in the majority of matches he has played. New Blackburn boss Michael O’Neill plays a back three with Northern Ireland, but Rovers have been a back four side since the dismissal of Valerian Ismael, who also generally played a three at the back system.

My best guess is that Rovers will stick with the shape and most of the personnel who won at QPR last week, which will see Cashin play at left-back. He has averaged 1.32 fouls per 90 since his debut, which is a big number for this price. He has committed a foul in four of his seven starts, but in four of five as a left-back.

Hearts can’t afford to drop points in games like this anymore if they want to remain a competitive force in the intriguing title race forming in the Scottish Premiership. Last weekend could prove to be a decisive one, with Hearts losing 4-2 to Rangers while Celtic battled back from two goals down to come away 3-2 winners against Kilmarnock.

This has left the top of the table incredibly tight, with only three points separating Hearts in first and Celtic in third. It is also pretty significant that Celtic still have a game in hand on both Rangers and Hearts, so there is very little leeway for Hearts from now until the end of the season - especially seeing as experience isn’t on their side.

Hearts are yet to lose a game at Tynecastle Park in the league this season, winning nine of their 13 matches. They’ve only conceded nine goals across these games, and have netted 26. This home form will be crucial to any chance they do have of stealing the title away from Rangers or Celtic, they are the only side in the Scottish Premiership who are yet to lose a game at home.

Falkirk did manage to get the better of Hearts in a recent cup clash on penalties, but Hearts have notably won both of the league meetings against Falkirk this season to nil. When the away side last visited Tynecastle Park, they were hammered 3-0 with Hearts managing double the number of shots (20-10) and also dwarfing Falkirk when it came to xG (1.94-0.67) and efforts on target (10-3).

Almere thrashed Eindhoven in the most recent league meeting between the sides, coming away 5-0 winners in that clash. Eindhoven were reduced to 10 men in the first half of that game, so Almere’s dominance was a little exaggerated and I think both sides will be able to contribute to the goal tally in this encounter. 

Almere currently occupy the final spot for the playoffs, and are being closely pursued by the likes of Waalwijk, Den Bosch and Venlo who will be eagerly watching here in the hopes that they slip up. One of the most notable parts of Almere’s overall record in the Eerste Divisie this season is how few of their matches have ended in draws - only three of their 26 games have ended with the points shared, suggesting that their matches tend to be end to end.

Almere’s away matches tend to be particularly exciting with 45 goals across their 12 away games (3.75 per game) - only one of these matches has ended in a draw. They travel to an Eindhoven side who aren’t quite out of the playoff picture yet, but would need to win here to have any chance of finishing inside the top eight. Their home games have been just as entertaining this season with 45 goals across 13 matches (3.46 per game).

Inter faced a disappointing result during the week as they lost 3-1 to Bodo Glimt in the Champions League, making the second leg against the Norwegian side a mammoth task next week. Their focus shifts back to Serie A here, where they have an opportunity to really pull away from the chasing pack.

Their closest challengers in AC Milan don’t play until Sunday, so Inter could establish a 10 point lead at the summit of Serie A before their city rivals kick off - putting real pressure on the red side of Milan in a clash they are expected to win against Parma. Inter have a similar level of opponent here, Lecce are scrapping at the bottom of Serie A and have notably only managed to win three of their 13 home matches in the Italian top flight this term. 

Inter boast the strongest away record in Serie A having won 10 of their 12 matches on the road this term. They’ve scored 24 goals across these games, which is also the best goal record away from home in Serie A. It’ll be hard for Lecce to find a way past Inter Milan in this clash, they’ve failed to score in any of the last six head to head meetings between the sides - with Inter winning all of these games.

If we put Inter’s recent disappointment in the Champions League to one side, their recent form has been really strong with Chivu’s team winning each of their last six games in Serie A, and losing just one of their last 15 games before that defeat in Norway - with this loss coming against Arsenal in the Champions League.

These sides faced off just 15 days ago with PSV coming away 4-1 winners in that clash as they progressed to the next round of the KNVB Cup. There is a massive gap in quality between PSV and the other sides in the Eredivisie, as shown by the 14 point lead they currently have at the top of the table.

PSV’s home record is particularly strong, they’ve won eight of their 11 home games in the Dutch top flight this term - losing just one of these games. Their scoring power stands out from this record, they’ve netted 36 goals across their 11 home games (3.27 per game) which is unsurprisingly the strongest home scoring record of any side in the division.

Furthermore, Heerenveen have a torrid record at the Philips Stadion with PSV remaining unbeaten in each of the last 10 head to head clashes when PSV have been the home side. Heerenveen’s record on the road this term into convincing either, they’ve only won four of their 11 away matches with just two of these games ending in draws. Given how easily PSV dispatched Heerenveen in the cup a few weeks ago, it seems likely that they come through this league clash just as comfortably.