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Freiburg have avoided defeat in each of their last three Europa League matches, scoring 11 goals across these games.

Freiburg have avoided defeat in 10 of their 12 Europa League matches this season.

Braga have lost or drawn seven of their 15 home games in Liga Portugal this campaign.

Braga drew their most recent home game in the Europa League against Real Betis. 

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Palace have avoided defeat in nine of their 12 Conference League matches this season.

Palace have the top scorer left in the competition in Ismaila Sarr with seven goals to his name in the Conference League.

Shakhtar have not faced a side of Palace’s quality in the Conference League yet this season, beating KuPS, Lech Poznan and Alkmaar to reach the semi finals.

Palace are the bookmakers’ favourites to win the Conference League this season. 

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Both sides saw BTTS over the weekend, with Rayo Vallecano drawing 3-3 with Real Sociedad and Strasbourg registering a 3-2 win over Lorient.

Strasbourg have seen BTTS in 14 of the 21 games that Gary O’Neil has taken charge of since arriving at the club (66%).

Rayo Vallecano saw BTTS in their most recent Conference League game, losing 3-1 to AEK Athens on the road.

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Each of the last 10 head to head meetings between these sides has produced 2+ goals, the most recent meeting finished 1-1.

Forest have seen 2+ goals in 10 of the 14 games that Vitor Pereira has taken charge of since taking over from Sean Dyche (71%).

Villa have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Our last Gem Bet won @ 2.10 ✅

Daichi Kamada is a pretty solid player, but I think he’ll have quite a bit of work to get through here against a technically sound Shakthar midfield. Kamada has committed a foul in four of his last five Conference League matches, committing 2+ fouls in two of these games. 

He’s priced as short as 1.14 to commit a single foul in this contest, and I don’t think a second is as far away as these odds suggest. He’s committed 28 fouls across his 18 starts in the Premier League this season (1.55 per 90), and has committed a further nine fouls across his eight starts in the Conference League (1.10 per 90). 

We’d be after a rise in these numbers, explaining the generous price, but I can see that happening given that Shakhtar drew 18 fouls from Alkmaar in their quarter final second leg and have drawn 10+ fouls in four of their last six Conference League matches. It’s worth noting that this situation is completely new for Palace, they’re favourites to win the Conference League - but any away semi-final in Europe can prove to be complicated.

Kamada committed two fouls and was fouled twice himself when Palace took on Fiorentina in their most recent Conference League game, with the Eagles committing 14 fouls in that game. 

Bet365 are also one of the few bookmakers offering Sub On Play On in this game, with Will Hughes being a possible replacement for Kamada if he doesn’t quite cover this foul line on his own - Hughes is averaging 2.50 fouls committed per 90 in the Conference League this season and is priced as short as 1.16 to commit a foul here.

There is clear value with this angle when backing with Bet365, the exact same selection is priced as low as 1.57 with other major bookmakers - and that’s without Sub On Play On as well.

Over 9.5 Total Legs in Jonny Clayton v Gian van Veen

Johnny Clayton has just been exceptional in this campaign. I didn’t think he’d get in the top four - I don’t know why I doubted him, because he always seems to get there. He loves this format, he adores the Premier League, and he manages his time very well. But he is up against someone who is improving again in Gian van Veen, even though he’s had a bit of a topsy-turvy time.

Now, if you look at their head-to-head, they’ve played each other eight times and it’s 5-3 to Johnny. But what really stands out to me is that six of those eight matches have gone over 9.5 legs. So you’re usually looking at 6–4 or 6–5 scorelines; tight games where neither player runs away with it. Based on that, I’m focusing on over 9.5 legs, because history suggests they tend to push each other all the way.

Luke Littler to Win v Josh Rock

Now, Luke Littler… we’ve had a bit of a frustrating relationship lately because he’s let me down a couple of times in this campaign. He’s beginning to make me look a bit stupid! But I’m going to persevere with him because I still feel like he wants not only to qualify for London at the O2, but to actually top the table. He’s chasing Johnny Clayton, and the ability is clearly there.

When you look at his record against Josh Rock, it’s a big factor: eight meetings, and Littler leads it 7–1. That’s a seriously strong head-to-head, and it shows he knows how to handle this matchup. Rock is a fantastic player, no doubt about it, but Littler has had the edge every time they’ve played. So despite the recent bumps, I’m backing Luke Littler to win here and get the job done.

That’s the double: a match that usually goes the distance in Clayton vs Van Veen, and trusting Littler’s dominance in the head-to-head to come through against Rock.

Shakhtar have been one of the Conference League's most impressive sides this season, but this upcoming match against Crystal Palace will be their toughest challenge yet. The Ukrainian side have been devastating on the counter-attack throughout the competition, and they secured a 3-0 home win over AZ Alkmaar in the quarter-finals. Shakhtar sit top of their domestic league, having won 11 of their 13 home matches, with 34 goals scored and just eight conceded.

Keeping Palace at bay, however, will be a significant challenge, and Olvier Glasner's side are the favourites to lift the Conference League trophy at the end of the season. Palace haven’t been totally dominant in Europe this season, and BTTS has landed in each of their last three away matches in the Conference. Still, they have plenty of firepower going forward, and should be able to find the back of the net midweek. 

Daniel Munoz got on the scoresheet for Crystal Palace at Anfield last time out, netting his fifth goal of the season. The Colombian international has been an important attacking outlet for Palace this campaign, and his recent form in the final third has been particularly encouraging. Munoz has landed this selection in six of his last seven starts, including all three of his appearances in the Conference League knockouts. 

Munoz tends to push high when Palace have the ball, and he has the ability to quickly get up and down that right flank. He does tend to stay quite wide to the touchline, but does also look to get into the box at times, and he is also a threat in transition. Munoz is averaging 1.16 shots per 90 in the Conference League this season, and has landed this selection in eight of his nine appearances.

Alisson Santana is yet another up and coming Brazilian playing for Shakhtar, and he was the standout performer for his side in the previous round. He bagged a brace in the first leg at home against AZ Alkmaar, as all three of his efforts hit the target in that game. The 20-year-old scored in the second leg, too, again registering a total of three shots in that match. Alisson has started all four of Shakhtar’s knockout matches in the Conference League this season, and he has hit this mark in three of those. The right winger has saved his best performances for the European stage this season, and he has looked eager to make a name for himself.

Being left-footed, Alisson naturally wants to cut inside, similar to Lamine Yamal, and he isn’t afraid to try his luck from distance. He should be looking forward to this matchup against a Premier League opponent.

Igor Jesus has been really impressive in the Europa League for Forest this season, registering eight goal contributions across his seven starts in the Europa League - more than any other Forest player in the competition.

He comes into this game in great form having scored in each of his last two games for Forest against Burnley and Sunderland, steadily raising his stock in the Premier League with his tally in the top flight now sitting at nine goal contributions across 24 starts - which was a tally that was as low as one goal contribution just a few weeks ago.

His underlying numbers in the Europa League are strong too, managing 31 shots across his 6 starts in the competition (4.53 per 90), seeing 15 of these efforts find the target (2.19 per 90). I think he’ll get chances here against a Villa side that have only kept one clean sheet in their last five matches across all competitions.

Morgan Rogers drew a blank in that recent meeting, as he had two shots which both missed the target. However, he did strike the crossbar with his first effort, while also missing a huge chance in the dying embers which would have secured the three points for his side. Rogers is constantly involved in the final third, and he should be able to find some good positions again here. Rogers also followed that up by scoring against both Bologna and Sunderland, respectively, which shows how he comes into this clash in good form. 

The 23-year-old is averaging 2.29 shots per 90 across all competitions this campaign, and he is a key player under Unai Emery, given plenty of attacking freedom. It wasn’t his day when these sides last met, and he came incredibly close to finding the back of the net, so he should be motivated to make the difference here. 

In addition to his contributions in the final third, Rogers also excels at carrying the ball between the lines. Because of that, he is averaging 1.51 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions, and has drawn 18 infringements in his last ten away starts. He has been a reason why Aston Villa rank top of the Premier League for total fouls drawn this season, making this an excellent matchup to target Elliot Anderson in the heart of midfield. 

The Englishman ranks third out of all Premier League players this season for total fouls committed, and he recorded two fouls when these sides recently met. Anderson also landed this selection earlier in the season at Villa Park, meaning he is averaging 1.68 fouls per 90 this campaign. Villa can be a difficult side to contain, especially in midfield areas, which means Anderson should have plenty of defensive work to get through. 

There were ten corners in the recent Premier League matchup at the City Ground, with Forest contributing seven of those. Vitor Pereira likes his side to play with width and look to stretch the pitch, and because of that, Forest have seen an uptick in corners since his arrival. In fact, Over 8.5 corners has landed in four of his six home games in charge, and the two misses finished on exactly eight corners. 

Forest are averaging 5.56 corners per game across all competitions this season, rising to 6.33 when playing on home turf. They will need to maintain that level of attacking intent on Thursday night, hoping to take a positive result to Villa Park for the second leg. Villa are equally capable of contributing to the corner count here, and they are averaging 5.24 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

Forest have hit a rich vein of form at the perfect time, unbeaten in any of their last eight matches across all competitions, which has seen them book their spot in the Europa League semi-final, and pull away from the bottom three in the league. They followed up a 4-1 thrashing of Burnley with a 5-0 win over Sunderland last time out, putting them five points above Spurs in 18th. Realistically, Forest need one more positive result to ensure they will play in the Premier League next season, but they first need to focus on his European clash against Aston Villa. 

There isn’t much to split Forest and Villa here, and it’s difficult to pick a winner. In fact, it finished as a 1-1 draw when these sides recently met at the City Ground in the league, meaning BTTS has landed in each of the last five consecutive meetings between the two.

Each of our last three Friday Evening Euro Doubles have won @ 2.0, 2.30 & 2.15 ✅

This is the top rated game for goals on the Goal List for Friday, and it’s easy to see why - Cercle have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches, while Zulte have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches.

Both sides have remained unbeaten in this period as part of the four sides in the relegation group of the Belgian Pro League. Each of the last eight head to head meetings between these sides has seen BTTS, with five of these games seeing 3+ goals.

Cercle’s home games this season have tended to be pretty open, with 56 goals across their 17 matches in front of their own supporters (3.29 per game). Zulte have seen a similar amount of goals (52) across the same number of matches on the road (3.05 per game), sitting this clash up nicely to produce at least three match goals. 

Each of our last three Friday Evening Euro Doubles have won @ 2.0, 2.30 & 2.15 ✅

This is an angle that we’ve taken a few times across recent weeks, and was part of our Friday Evening Euro Double a few weeks ago as Mallorca managed to get on the scoresheet against Valencia. 

Mallorca have scored in each of their last seven matches across all competitions, scoring multiple goals in four of these games. They scored against Girona earlier in the season as they fell to a 2-1 defeat at home against their opponents here, registering an xG of 1.26 from their nine shots on that occasion.

Mallorca have also managed to score in nine of the last 10 head to head meetings between the sides, adding a historical advantage to this selection. Girona have conceded 24 goals across their 16 home games in LaLiga this season (1.5 per game), and have only kept six clean sheets all season - only four sides in LaLiga have kept fewer. 

Leeds were in encouraging form in the weeks leading up to their FA Cup disappointment, with a seven match unbeaten streak. They pulled off some notable victories in that stretch, including a 2-1 win against Man United at Old Trafford. That surge in form has seen them establish daylight over the bottom three, and they will fancy their chances against a Burnley side who have already had their relegation confirmed. 

The Clarets have very little to play for this weekend, and their recent results reflect that. Scott Parker's side have won just once since October, and their away record this season has been dreadful. They have lost 12 of their 17 away matches this term - no side has suffered more defeats on their travels in the Premier League this season. 

Leeds haven’t been much better on the road, but their performances at Elland Road has made up for that - they have only lost five of their 17 home games this season. 

That includes a convincing 3.0 win against basement-dwellers Wolves in their last home outing, and this upcoming clash against Burnley promises to be a similar matchup. Despite going 2-0 after just 20 minutes against Rob Edwards’ men, Leeds kept pushing for goals - they racked up 17 shots and seven big chances worth 2.82 xG, and they managed five corners. 

Leeds have been effective at generating corners at Elland Road throughout the season, and they are averaging 5.67 corners per game at home this campaign. Given the context of the fixture, they will have to play with a progressive mindset once again, so that corner figure could rise further. 

Meanwhile, Burnley are averaging 5.97 corners conceded per game in the league this season, rising to 6.24 when playing away. They have been quite passive on their travels, so Leeds should be able to dominate. 

Bashir Humphreys is averaging just 0.83 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which is nothing to write home about, but the nature of his infringements is what makes this market stand out. The 23-year-old has only committed 13 fouls this season for Burnley, but five of those have been worthy of a yellow card, which is an impressive rate. Humphreys tends to make cynical, last-ditch challenges when he finds himself out of position, which makes this card price stand out. 

Humphreys will be given a test this weekend against a Leeds side who will have to be front-footed. His main matchup will be against Calvert-Lewin, who is a physical presence up top for Leeds, while Okafor is always looking to beat his marker, bringing a different dynamic to the Leeds front line. Humphreys should have plenty of defensive work to get through this weekend. 

Zian Flemming has been one of Burnley's more active players when it comes to fouls, and his numbers when playing away are particularly notable. The Dutchman is averaging 2.49 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, and that figure jumps to 3.31 when playing on the road, where he has landed this selection in each of his last six successive away appearances. He has been fortunate to escape with just one booking in that stretch, which shows how his fouls tend to be quite soft, rather than cynical. 

Fleming draws an excellent matchup to keep improving those numbers against Leeds here, as they tend to be much better at controlling possession when playing at home. Leeds were fouled 17 times by Wolves in their last home outing, and Flemming recorded two infringements in the reverse fixture.

This is the standout fixture in the Championship this weekend, as both sides are still battling near the top of the pile. Wrexham need a positive result to confirm their playoff spot for a chance to make it four promotions in a row. However, it’s not an easy final fixture for the Welsh side, as Middlesbrough are fourth in the league, and are still fighting  to finish second. They are only two points behind Ipswich, and one behind Millwall.

Based on that, both sides should be front-footed in their approach with a lot to play for, and we could get quite an open contest at the Racecourse Ground here. BTTS has landed in five of Wrexham’s last seven home matches across all competitions, and the scoreline was 1-1 when these sides met in the reverse fixture back in October.

Just when Hull looked like they would feature in the playoffs this season, their form has taken a turn for the worse, and they are now seventh in the standings. However, they are only behind Wrexham on goal difference, so will have to be front-footed this weekend. Their results have been unpredictable, but goals have remained consistent - BTTS has landed in six of their last seven matches. The Tigers have been an entertaining side to watch this term, with 68 goals scored and 65 conceded from their 45 league matches, which shows how open their games tend to be. 

Similarly, this selection has landed in five of the last six games for Norwich, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Swansea last time out. This is a clash between two attack-minded sides, so there should be chances available at both ends. 

After snatching a point from Southampton in the final minutes on Tuesday night, Ipswich go into this final-day fixture in second place, above Millwall by only one point. They will need all three points at Portman Road against QPR here to guarantee automatic promotion to the Premier League, so the atmosphere inside the ground should be electric. Kieran McKenna’s side haven’t been too convincing in recent weeks, having won only one of their last four matches, but they have won 13 of their 22 league matches at home this season, with 40 goals scored and just 17 conceded. 

The hosts will fancy their chances this weekend, especially considering that QPR come into this clash with very little left to play for. They have lost each of their last three successive matches, and are unlikely to be able to cope with the firepower Ipswich possess.

Southampton were left disappointed midweek after drawing against Ipswich, but the Saints should be proud of their progress this season. After struggling early on under the management of Will Still, they went 20 games unbeaten, led by Tonda Eckert. That streak was recently ended by Man City at Wembley, but Southampton deserve immense credit for making that far in the first place - they even got past league-leaders Arsenal. A playoff spot is already certain for the Saints, and it is still possible for them to finish second and clinch automatic promotion, although they need a lot of results elsewhere to go their way. 

Preston haven’t got as much to play for on this final weekend, and their recent form has been underwhelming. They have only won two of their last ten home matches, with five losses in that stretch, which will give Southampton hope that they can finish on a high. 

Derby have been one of the more consistent performances in the second half of the season, and they come into the final day as one of three teams still in contention for a playoff spot. The visitors will need all three points this weekend, and they will be incredibly confident given that they have won each of their last six straight matches on home turf. By contrast, they have lost each of their last three away matches, so will be grateful that they can finish their campaign at the Pride Park Stadium. 

Meanwhile, Sheffield United are sitting mid-table, with little to gain in terms of league position. Because of that, they seem to have taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks, and have lost back-to-back matches coming into this clash. Derby won 3-1 in the reverse fixture against the Blades, and will want a similar result here. 

Vipotnik is the Championship’s top scorer this season, netting 23 goals across his 34 starts in the league.

Vipotnik has scored six goals across his last six appearances in the Championship, netting in five separate games.

Vipotnik has scored 42% of Swansea’s total goals in the Championship this season, the highest share of any forward in the league. Swansea’s next top scorer is Liam Cullen with only five goals.

Only three players have scored more goals than Oli McBurnie in the Championship this season (16).

Oli McBurnie has scored two goals across his last five appearances in the Championship.

Hull have scored 33 goals across their 22 home games in the Championship this season, and need all three points on the final day to have a chance in the playoffs.

Carlton Morris has scored two goals across his last five Championship appearances.

No Derby player has scored more goals than Morris (12) in the Championship this season.

Derby realistically need all three points to break into the playoffs on the final day.

Morris netted a hat trick when these sides met earlier in the season.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a straight shootout for a spot in the Champions League next season with Hoffenheim sitting below Stuttgart in the Bundesliga table on goal difference alone. Hoffenheim have seen 3+ goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions, most recently registering 2-1 victories over the likes of Hamburg and Dortmund to keep their Champions League qualification hopes alive.

Stuttgart have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches in the Bundesliga, and have notably seen 64 goals across their 15 away games in the Bundesliga top flight this term (4.26 per game). Hoffenheim have seen 49 goals across their 15 home games in the German top flight this season (3.26 per game), so this clash is set up to produce goals given the records of these sides across the season as a whole and the direct fight that they find themselves in. 

There are only four goals between these sides when it comes to goal difference as well, with Stuttgart having the advantage in that particular metric, so Hoffenheim may need to get a convincing win here to ensure that they don’t miss out on a spot in the Champions League next season from goal difference alone.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a game that Arsenal simply have to win, Manchester City travel to face Everton on Monday, which is no easy assignment, so this could be the weekend for Arsenal to open up a convincing gap at the top of the table given that they take on an easier opponent in Fulham at home.

Arsenal played pretty well in Madrid during the week, but only came away with a 1-1 draw from the game - leaving the tie in the balance until the sides meet at the Emirates next week, complicating matters further for Mikel Arteta as he can’t really afford to rotate his side for either crucial game. Arsenal have won 13 of their 17 home matches in the Premier League this season, collecting more points than any other side at home (41) and conceding fewer goals than any other side (11). 

Fulham have been really poor on the road this campaign, winning just four of their 17 away games in the Premier League. Only Leeds (14), Burnley (9) and Wolves (5) have picked up fewer points on the road than Fulham in the top flight this campaign, so Arsenal really should be collecting all three points in this game given the situation with the title race and factoring in Fulham’s poor record away from home in the Premier League this season.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

PSV don’t keep many clean sheets for a side that has dominated the Eredivisie (again), sitting 19 points clear at the top of the table but only keeping seven clean sheets across their 31 matches in the Dutch top flight this campaign (22%).

They’ve seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, and have also seen 53 goals across their 15 away games in the Eredivisie (3.53 per game) - impressively winning 13 of these matches. 

They take on an Ajax side who are chasing down Nijmegen and Feyenoord for a spot in the Champions League next season, Ajax managed to earn a 2-2 draw when these sides met earlier in the campaign and have seen 42 goals across their 15 horn games in the Eredivisie this term (2.8 per game). 

BTTS has landed in five of the last six head to head meetings between these sides, and Ajax’s desperation to break into the Champions League spots partnered with PSV’s slight complacency having already secured the title should see both sides be able to get on the scoresheet here.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

The initial league meeting between these sides finished 2-2, which is a bit of a snapshot of how entertaining Nijmegen’s games have been in the Eredivisie this season. Nijmegen have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches in the Dutch top flight, and have notably only kept five clean sheets across their 31 matches (16%), which is a very low figure for a side competing for a spot in the Champions League next season.

Nijmegen can play like this due to how forward thinking they are, they don’t mind giving up goals as they often feel as though they can outscore the opposition - which is a tactic that has worked for them so far this campaign. Their 15 home games have produced 61 goals (4.06 per game), and they’ve conceded 23 goals across these games - suggesting that there is a vulnerability about them that Telstar can look to exploit.

Telstar are battling at the bottom of the Eredivisie, giving them all the motivation they need to get on the scoresheet in this encounter. They scored twice when the sides last met, and have scored at least once in each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides. They’ve also scored 15 goals across their 15 away matches, which is a steady record for a relegation threatened side.