The race for the last automatic promotion spot is on in the Championship, there are three teams that know they can finish in second: Ipswich, Millwall and Middlesbrough. I'm expecting their three games to produce plenty of corners and goals, and a good few cards with how high the tensions are.

Ipswich v QPR

Ipswich are leading the pack on 81 points, and have scored more goals than Millwall and Middlesbrough, but find themselves in the worst form of the three. Their last game against Southampton finished 2-2, had two cards and 14 corners - I can see their game against QPR being similar as they know they probably need to win.

Looking at their last five games, four have seen 2+ goals, whilst three have had 9+ corners. The cards have been flying in too, 2+ has landed in all of Ipswich's last five games.

Wrexham v Middlesbrough

This is the game of the day in the Championship, Wrexham are sixth and level on points with Hull, with Derby only one point behind them - meaning it's a three-way shootout for the last play-off spot. Whilst Boro are in fourth hoping they can sneak into second place by the end of the day.

Both teams are coming into this after high scoring games (Middlesbrough 5-1 Watford & Coventry 3-1 Wrexham). Boro will also know there's a slim chance they can go up automatically on goal difference if the five goal gap to Ipswich is reduced. Middlesbrough games are also great for corners, they've had 9+ in all of their last five matches.

Millwall v Oxford Utd

Oxford are already relegated, however they could definitely cause issues for Millwall, in fact, they've only taken one less point across their last five matches. Millwall have had 2+ goals land in 36/45 matches so far this season, and with what's on the line here I expect them to cover that line on their own.

Here's a fun fact: despite having earned the fewest corners in the league, Oxford Utd have the highest Hit Rate for matches that go Over 8.5 Corners in the Championship, 35/45 of their games this season have seen that line covered. And the referee for this one is Anthony Blackhouse, who's dished out more yellow cards than any other referee in the Championship this season (4.79 per game).

Again, we’re focusing on another side who have plenty to play for. Ipswich have come up several times already in this write up, and now it’s their turn on centre stage.

They lead the charge for automatic promotion, one point clear of Millwall and two clear of Middlesbrough.

Their home form is exemplary. They’ve suffered just one solitary defeat at Portman Road this season - a shock 3-0 loss to Charlton, all the way back in October. Since then it’s been full-steam ahead and their tally of 47 home points can only be bettered by Coventry.

QPR’s season is done and dusted. They’ve been damn entertaining, but their horrendous inconsistency has held them back from any real success. They can finish anywhere between 11th and 17th based on results, and I just can’t see them toppling an Ipswich side with such an excellent home record.

Goals should flow too, QPR have seen two or more goals scored in 34 of their 45 matches, for Ipswich it’s even better - 38 out of 45.

A huge late rally from Pompey has seen them survive relatively comfortably, and now they can finish as high as 17th, or maybe a touch higher if you believe in 7-15 goal swings.

Pompey’s recent form has shown what they’re all about. They’ve got grit, determination and true fighting spirit. Yes, this game doesn’t ‘mean’ anything, but every game means something at Fratton Park and it’ll be a brilliant atmosphere to see out the season.

They’ve won four of their last five matches and have lost just once in seven. They also beat second placed Ipswich here a couple of weeks ago.

Birmingham also have nothing to play for, but I think there’s two disparate moods between the two. It’s a disappointment for Birmingham to not be in at least the play-offs, given the money they’ve shelled out.

A big part of that is their poor return on the road. Only Oxford and Sheff Wed have taken fewer away points, and Oxford only trail that record by a solitary point.

The Blues have lost 13 out of 22 on their travels, which includes a woeful recent run of four losses in their last five.

I think tools are down, they’re on the beach, whilst Pompey will want to see the season out in a positive manner in front of their excellent home fans.

The Lions have a shot at the Premier League, and it’s all come down to matchday 46 to secure it. Their potential promotion isn’t in their hands, their mantra is simple - win, and hope.

Millwall trail Ipswich by a solitary point, with the Tractor Boys currently occupying 2nd place; which would gain automatic promotion.

They need to beat Oxford, who have already been relegated and hope that QPR do them a massive favour at Portman Road.

Oxford already have their fate sealed, and boast the second poorest away record in the division, with only Sheff Wed taking fewer points than The O’s 18. They’ve won just four of their 22 trips this campaign.

It’s just one win in eight on the road to end the season, which came away at Preston, and with some luck in terms of having just 30% of possession.

Millwall’s season has been underpinned by their excellent defence, which has conceded the fourth fewest league goals.

‘Boro are in a similar situation to Millwall, except they need multiple favours. They need Oxford and QPR both to pull their finger out against Millwall and Ipswich, respectively.

The visitors sit fourth in the table, trailing the automatic places by two points.

A brutal run through March and April left them off the pace, and falling away from what should have been a title challenge, but a recent bounce back has seen back-to-back wins; which included a 5-1 drubbing of Watford last time out.

This looks risky at a glance, with Wrexham chasing the play-offs. They currently occupy the final spot, and a win here would guarantee their place in the semi-finals, unless Hull also win and swing the narrow goal difference.

The reality is Wrexham aren’t as good as the table suggests. They rank 20th in the division for expected goals, and 18th for expected goals against. Two key indicators of a severe overperformance.

They’ve struggled lately against sides up and around them, most notably being swept aside by Coventry last time out and being battered 5-1 at home by Southampton.

They also have a distinctly average home record. They’ve only managed eight more points than Leicester, and seven more than Oxford - both of which have been relegated.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a straight shootout for a spot in the Champions League next season with Hoffenheim sitting below Stuttgart in the Bundesliga table on goal difference alone. Hoffenheim have seen 3+ goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions, most recently registering 2-1 victories over the likes of Hamburg and Dortmund to keep their Champions League qualification hopes alive.

Stuttgart have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches in the Bundesliga, and have notably seen 64 goals across their 15 away games in the Bundesliga top flight this term (4.26 per game). Hoffenheim have seen 49 goals across their 15 home games in the German top flight this season (3.26 per game), so this clash is set up to produce goals given the records of these sides across the season as a whole and the direct fight that they find themselves in. 

There are only four goals between these sides when it comes to goal difference as well, with Stuttgart having the advantage in that particular metric, so Hoffenheim may need to get a convincing win here to ensure that they don’t miss out on a spot in the Champions League next season from goal difference alone.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a game that Arsenal simply have to win, Manchester City travel to face Everton on Monday, which is no easy assignment, so this could be the weekend for Arsenal to open up a convincing gap at the top of the table given that they take on an easier opponent in Fulham at home.

Arsenal played pretty well in Madrid during the week, but only came away with a 1-1 draw from the game - leaving the tie in the balance until the sides meet at the Emirates next week, complicating matters further for Mikel Arteta as he can’t really afford to rotate his side for either crucial game. Arsenal have won 13 of their 17 home matches in the Premier League this season, collecting more points than any other side at home (41) and conceding fewer goals than any other side (11). 

Fulham have been really poor on the road this campaign, winning just four of their 17 away games in the Premier League. Only Leeds (14), Burnley (9) and Wolves (5) have picked up fewer points on the road than Fulham in the top flight this campaign, so Arsenal really should be collecting all three points in this game given the situation with the title race and factoring in Fulham’s poor record away from home in the Premier League this season.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

PSV don’t keep many clean sheets for a side that has dominated the Eredivisie (again), sitting 19 points clear at the top of the table but only keeping seven clean sheets across their 31 matches in the Dutch top flight this campaign (22%).

They’ve seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, and have also seen 53 goals across their 15 away games in the Eredivisie (3.53 per game) - impressively winning 13 of these matches. 

They take on an Ajax side who are chasing down Nijmegen and Feyenoord for a spot in the Champions League next season, Ajax managed to earn a 2-2 draw when these sides met earlier in the campaign and have seen 42 goals across their 15 horn games in the Eredivisie this term (2.8 per game). 

BTTS has landed in five of the last six head to head meetings between these sides, and Ajax’s desperation to break into the Champions League spots partnered with PSV’s slight complacency having already secured the title should see both sides be able to get on the scoresheet here.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

The initial league meeting between these sides finished 2-2, which is a bit of a snapshot of how entertaining Nijmegen’s games have been in the Eredivisie this season. Nijmegen have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches in the Dutch top flight, and have notably only kept five clean sheets across their 31 matches (16%), which is a very low figure for a side competing for a spot in the Champions League next season.

Nijmegen can play like this due to how forward thinking they are, they don’t mind giving up goals as they often feel as though they can outscore the opposition - which is a tactic that has worked for them so far this campaign. Their 15 home games have produced 61 goals (4.06 per game), and they’ve conceded 23 goals across these games - suggesting that there is a vulnerability about them that Telstar can look to exploit.

Telstar are battling at the bottom of the Eredivisie, giving them all the motivation they need to get on the scoresheet in this encounter. They scored twice when the sides last met, and have scored at least once in each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides. They’ve also scored 15 goals across their 15 away matches, which is a steady record for a relegation threatened side.

I've used my unique goal sheet to pick out a 20/1 longshot for the final day of the EFL.

It covers 9 games across the day, starting in the 12:30 games in the Championship. Three BTTS, Three 2+ Goals and Three 3+ Goals. Should be fun to track on a packed day of EFL action with plenty still to be decided.

Click the load bet button to find out what my goal sheet has picked out for Saturday ⬇️

Lewis Travis has picked up 10 yellow cards and one red card across his 24 starts in the Championship this season (0.42 per 90) - more than any other Derby player.

Travis has picked up two yellow cards across his last five Championship appearances, maintaining an average of 1.39 fouls committed per 90 across the season as a whole.

Only Hull (113) have picked up more yellow cards in the Championship this season than Derby (105). 

Matt Crooks has collected the joint most yellow cards in the Championship this season (12).

Matt Crooks has picked up three yellow cards across his last 10 Championship matches.

His direct opponent is likely to be Pelle Mattson, who has been shown 10 cards himself. He’s also averaging 1.95 fouls won per 90 across his 29 starts in the Championship.

Crooks committed a foul and was shown a yellow card in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides.

Jordan Thompson has picked up six yellow cards across just 999 minutes of action in the Championship this season (10 starts).

Thompson has collected four of these cards across his last 10 appearances for Preston, including last time out against Sheffield United.

Preston committed 18 fouls and were shown three yellow cards in the initial league meeting between these sides.

Thompson will be up against Azaz, Charles and Jander who combine to win 4.18 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season.

This is the standout fixture in the Championship this weekend, as both sides are still battling near the top of the pile. Wrexham need a positive result to confirm their playoff spot for a chance to make it four promotions in a row. However, it’s not an easy final fixture for the Welsh side, as Middlesbrough are fourth in the league, and are still fighting  to finish second. They are only two points behind Ipswich, and one behind Millwall.

Based on that, both sides should be front-footed in their approach with a lot to play for, and we could get quite an open contest at the Racecourse Ground here. BTTS has landed in five of Wrexham’s last seven home matches across all competitions, and the scoreline was 1-1 when these sides met in the reverse fixture back in October.

Just when Hull looked like they would feature in the playoffs this season, their form has taken a turn for the worse, and they are now seventh in the standings. However, they are only behind Wrexham on goal difference, so will have to be front-footed this weekend. Their results have been unpredictable, but goals have remained consistent - BTTS has landed in six of their last seven matches. The Tigers have been an entertaining side to watch this term, with 68 goals scored and 65 conceded from their 45 league matches, which shows how open their games tend to be. 

Similarly, this selection has landed in five of the last six games for Norwich, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Swansea last time out. This is a clash between two attack-minded sides, so there should be chances available at both ends. 

After snatching a point from Southampton in the final minutes on Tuesday night, Ipswich go into this final-day fixture in second place, above Millwall by only one point. They will need all three points at Portman Road against QPR here to guarantee automatic promotion to the Premier League, so the atmosphere inside the ground should be electric. Kieran McKenna’s side haven’t been too convincing in recent weeks, having won only one of their last four matches, but they have won 13 of their 22 league matches at home this season, with 40 goals scored and just 17 conceded. 

The hosts will fancy their chances this weekend, especially considering that QPR come into this clash with very little left to play for. They have lost each of their last three successive matches, and are unlikely to be able to cope with the firepower Ipswich possess.

Southampton were left disappointed midweek after drawing against Ipswich, but the Saints should be proud of their progress this season. After struggling early on under the management of Will Still, they went 20 games unbeaten, led by Tonda Eckert. That streak was recently ended by Man City at Wembley, but Southampton deserve immense credit for making that far in the first place - they even got past league-leaders Arsenal. A playoff spot is already certain for the Saints, and it is still possible for them to finish second and clinch automatic promotion, although they need a lot of results elsewhere to go their way. 

Preston haven’t got as much to play for on this final weekend, and their recent form has been underwhelming. They have only won two of their last ten home matches, with five losses in that stretch, which will give Southampton hope that they can finish on a high. 

Derby have been one of the more consistent performances in the second half of the season, and they come into the final day as one of three teams still in contention for a playoff spot. The visitors will need all three points this weekend, and they will be incredibly confident given that they have won each of their last six straight matches on home turf. By contrast, they have lost each of their last three away matches, so will be grateful that they can finish their campaign at the Pride Park Stadium. 

Meanwhile, Sheffield United are sitting mid-table, with little to gain in terms of league position. Because of that, they seem to have taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks, and have lost back-to-back matches coming into this clash. Derby won 3-1 in the reverse fixture against the Blades, and will want a similar result here. 

Vipotnik is the Championship’s top scorer this season, netting 23 goals across his 34 starts in the league.

Vipotnik has scored six goals across his last six appearances in the Championship, netting in five separate games.

Vipotnik has scored 42% of Swansea’s total goals in the Championship this season, the highest share of any forward in the league. Swansea’s next top scorer is Liam Cullen with only five goals.

Only three players have scored more goals than Oli McBurnie in the Championship this season (16).

Oli McBurnie has scored two goals across his last five appearances in the Championship.

Hull have scored 33 goals across their 22 home games in the Championship this season, and need all three points on the final day to have a chance in the playoffs.

Carlton Morris has scored two goals across his last five Championship appearances.

No Derby player has scored more goals than Morris (12) in the Championship this season.

Derby realistically need all three points to break into the playoffs on the final day.

Morris netted a hat trick when these sides met earlier in the season.

We had a nice winner during the week as Kane had a shot from outside the box against PSG, finding the target with that effort too.

I’ve been scouring the final day in the EFL for any notable angles and there aren’t many games that have more riding on them than Crawley v Salford.

Salford are just one point below the automatic promotion spots in League Two, battling against Cambridge and Notts County for that final promotion spot with Bromley and MK Dons already guaranteed the other two. Salford have only drawn one of their 22 away matches in League Two this term, so we can expect this game to go either way - especially with where Crawley find themselves heading into the final day.

Crawley sit at the opposite end of the table, only currently out of the bottom two on goal difference alone. They’re one of five sides looking to avoid the drop, which is a significant one as the two sides that go down exit the EFL which can have devastating effects for some clubs - particularly financially.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced seven goals as Salford came away 4-3 winners over Crawley at home in a game that saw the sides combine for an xG of 5.47 from 33 shots in total. Crawley also saw six goals last time out as they earned a crucial point on the road against Accrington, registering an xG of 1.94 from 14 shots in that clash. The context surrounding this clash means that goals are very likely at both ends, a point does very little for the aspiration of both sides with so many other teams adding to the permutations.

The angle i’m taking this week is BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in Crawley v Salford which is available at 2.10, I’d also have a look at BTTS & No Draw which is one of my favourite markets - you can back that at 2.4 for a final day flutter in League Two.

Harrogate have only drawn three of their 22 home games in League Two this season.

Barnet have seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last four matches, winning all four of these games.

Harrogate have seen BTTS & No Draw in three of their last five matches in League Two.

Both sides need to win, Barnet are three points adrift of the playoff spots - with a superior goal difference - while Harrogate find themselves in the drop zone on goal difference alone.

Both sides have seen BTTS in each of their last three matches in League One.

66% of the goals that Bradford have conceded in League One this season have been away from home, they’ve only drawn six of these 22 matches.

Exeter are two points from safety, so a draw won’t be enough for them to survive this season. 

None of the last three head to head meetings between these sides has ended in a draw, with one of those games seeing BTTS & No Draw. 

BTTS & No Draw landed when these sides met earlier in the season, with Tranmere coming away 2-1 winners on that occasion.

Grimsby have seen BTTS & No Draw in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Tranmere have only drawn five of their 22 home matches in League Two this season.

Tranmere have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last eight matches.

Grimsby need all three points to secure their playoff spot, while a draw also put Tranmere in real danger of the drop with just one point keeping them above the relegation zone ahead of the final day.

Luton have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, seeing BTTS & No Draw in three of these games.

Luton have only drawn five of their 22 away games in League One this season. 

Luton need all three points to give themselves a chance of a playoff spot. 

Bolton have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, they’ve only kept 11 clean sheets across their 45 matches in League One this season (24%).