I’ve been waiting for Sesko to start firing in the Premier League and it looks like Carrick now trusts him enough given his goals in recent games against Everton and Crystal Palace.

I love Sesko because he can score so many different types of goals. He’s got the shot power to take aim for range, and he's just as effective in the air as he showed with his headed goal against Crystal Palace last time out.

Sesko has taken 49 shots across his 12 starts in the Premier League this term, working out to an average of 3.65 shots per 90. He’s scored eight goals across these starts which is a very impressive tally for a young striker in his first season in the Premier League.

Strikers play in streaks of form based on confidence. Sesko should have plenty of that having netted in each of his last three games for Manchester United - managing four shots against Crystal Palace last time out. He should get plenty of service with United taking more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season and Newcastle without a clean sheet in their last 11 matches across all competitions.

This bet has landed in 50% of Newcastle's home league games this season.

They've dropped off at home this season, managing 1.64 Points Per Game (PPG), compared to the 2 PPG they posted last season.

They have lost their last three home league games to teams lower in the league than Man Utd. Losing to Everton, Brentford, and Aston Villa, conceding eight goals in that time.

They've actually conceded three goals in three of their last four home league games - as they needed a late show to beat Leeds 4-3, the home league outing before this run of losses.

Newcastle have hosted eight of the current Premier League top 10 this season in the league; they have only won two of those games, drawing one and losing the other five. So this bet has landed on six of the eight (75%) occasions they've hosted a side in the current Premier League top 10 this season.

This bet has landed in 10 of Mbeumo's last 12 Premier League games.

In Newcastle's last five league outings, the opposition right winger has covered this line.

- Dwight McNeil: had four shots at St James' this weekend just gone.

- Antoine Semenyo: had three shots and then Phil Foden added another as a Sub On Play On replacement.

- Wilson Odobert: came off early and was replaced by Mathys Tel, who had six shots!

- Dango Ouattara: two shots

- Mohamed Salah: two shots

Newcastle need a result more than Man Utd in this one; the dynamics of the game could play out for Michael Carrick's side to utilise their strength on the counter-attack. Mbeumo is crucial to that with his pace.

Although he loves to cut in on his left to strike, the Cameroon international is not one-dimensional. 36% of his shots this season have been with either his right foot or his head, so there are plenty of angles that Mbeumo can land this bet for us under the lights in the North East.

Nick Pope has been a very busy man in the Newcastle goal this season. He’s been forced into making 67 saves across his 22 starts in the Premier League this term, working out to an average of 3.07 saves per 90 at a save percentage of 67.7%.

Aaron Ramsdale was the keeper for Newcastle the last time these sides met and was forced to make 3 saves. Pope should return as the starting keeper here, given that he’s played the last two Premier League matches against Manchester City and Everton, making seven saves across these games.

Manchester United have taken more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season, and managed 11 shots on target against Crystal Palace last time out - drawing nine saves from Dean Henderson in that clash.

Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations. 

Brighton are one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League, collecting 68 yellow cards across their 28 matches (2.42 per game). Only Tottenham (71) have picked up more cards than Brighton in the Premier League this season, setting the Seagulls up well to pick up at least 2+ cards in this crucial game in the title race.

It’s not totally surprising that Brighton rank high for fouls and cards in the Premier League this season, they have one of the youngest squads in the league and are managed by the youngest manager in the division so the Seagulls can struggle when it comes to restraint. 

They picked up three yellow cards when they faced Arsenal earlier on in the season, from a foul count of 13, and I think they’ll be antagonised enough by the league leaders to pick up at least two cautions in this clash. 

Newcastle have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 games - promising another goal heavy affair at St James’ Park when the most exciting team in the Premier League visit.

Manchester United have been very impressive under Michael Carrick so far, and saw 3+ goals last time out as they came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 1-0. United have seen 45 goals across their 14 away matches in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.21 goals per game. They should be full of confidence given their strong recent form, and can punish a Newcastle side who are far from secure at the back.

Eddie Howe’s side have seen 49 goals across their 14 matches at St James’ Park this season (3.5 goals per game), notably already conceding more goals at home this season (23) than they did across the entirety of last season (20). This highlights the defensive issues that Newcastle have battled with all campaign, and should lead to another frenzied evening at St James’ Park. 

PIGEON HOUSE must have strong claims, in what appears a desperately weak claiming hurdle. The six-year-old gelding is a dual winner in Ireland and has finished 2nd in both visits to this venue. His reappearance effort last time was particularly eye-catching, having raced freely in front, over a trip too taxing. The drop in journey is expected to prove the catalyst for improvement here.

I believe that JUNIOR DES MOTTES can land a hat-trick of staying handicap hurdle wins, for his in-form trainer. He performed impressively at Fakenham and Plumpton - winning with plenty in hand. A 7lb penalty may not be enough to prevent him going in again, in what looks a winnable race.

SHIHOKU has always shown the potential to be a useful performer, ever since running 2nd to a horse now rated 100 officially, at this track in maiden company. Recently, the five-year-old has been supported in the market, in three races at this level. A 4th last time was encouraging, considering his rider had an issue with an iron when leaving the stalls. He also raced on the slower part of the track in the straight, and ought to be competitive from the same rating this time.

The likely pace scenario here could prove an advantage for hold-up performer EXPERT AGENT. The Stuart Williams-trained sprinter has shown fair form, without winning this season. The Expert Eye gelding is now a well handicapped individual - now 5lb below his last winning mark. His recent four over this trip at Wolverhampton was a fine effort, considering he was far back throughout, and switching to this course with a long straight certainly appeals.

Horses with consistent form are certainly not easy to find in the finale at the Sunbury Venue. VITALLINE is a slight exception, having run better than his brace of 5th-placed finishes suggests recently. He was unfortunate in his grade at Lingfield, prior to not being beaten far in a Chelmsford handicap last time. It was also not too long ago that he was successful, with a course victory in December. If able to deliver anything like his A-game, I can see him proving to be too good for the moderate opposition.

RIZAL is undoubtedly the most interesting runner in the race – having his first UK start for a new yard – on all-weather debut. The unexposed four-year-old showed glimmers of promise in Irish handicaps last term – including a runner-up position to a next-time-out winner at Curragh. An opening mark of 70 may seriously underestimate him, and he definitely has scope for progress now raised in distance.

Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

Forest are only two points above the relegation zone, and Vitor Pereira’s fifth game in charge looks set to be a difficult assignment. Man City won 2-1 in the reverse fixture at the City Ground, and it was a dominant display from Pep Guardiola’s men. They recorded 16 shots worth 1.45 xG, while the hosts managed just seven efforts worth 0.55 xG in return. John Victor was in goal for the hosts then, and he made three saves. However, the Brazil international is ruled out of this midweek clash due to injury, which means Matz Sels should start.

Sels made his return from injury against Brighton at the weekend, and he looked in good nick, registering five saves. He will have to be on form again here, as City are forcing 3.65 opposition saves per game this season, rising to 4.18 when playing at the Etihad. 

Antoine Semenyo played a decisive role against Leeds at the weekend, scoring the only goal of the game to secure three points for his side. That finish ticked his tally to six goals since joining Man City in January, and 16 for the season overall. He has hit the ground running for his new club, continuing to play with confidence in the final third, and Semenyo is averaging 2.16 shots per 90 for City. He has landed this selection in six of his 10 starts for his new club so far, also providing two assists. 

City should dominate proceedings again at home here, which will allow Semenyo to get involved high up the pitch. He will be confident heading into this matchup, given that he has scored in two of his last three meetings with Forest.

In addition to his output in the final third, Antoine Semenyo has shown a willingness to contribute defensively. During the first half of the season with Bournemouth, he had an average of 1.85 fouls per 90, reflecting an aggressive approach in duels. Despite City being much better at retaining possession, that figure has remained relatively high at 1.45 fouls per 90 across all competitions for his new club. 

Semenyo will be up against Neco Williams on the flank in midweek, which is an ideal matchup. The Welshman is effective at drawing free kicks, averaging 1.7 fouls drawn per 90 this season, rising to 1.98 on the road. In a tough game like this, that could be useful to alleviate the pressure on his side. Neco Williams sees plenty of the ball for Forest and is confident pushing forward, which means he should have plenty of duels against Semenyo.

Arsenal have won both head-to-head encounters against Brighton this season, and they had plenty of success in the final third when the sides last met in December. The Gunners racked up 24 shots and four big chances worth 3.08 xG - if not for Bart Verbruggen’s five saves, the scoreline really could have got out of hand (winning only 2-1 in the end). 

Brighton have underperformed this campaign so far, and their lack of cohesion at the back has been a significant reason why. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 matches across all competitions. 

However, they have only lost just two of their 13 league matches at the Amex Stadium this season, and they took points off Arsenal when the sides last met on the South Coast, with that game finishing 1-1. Both sides have the potential to contribute to the scoreline here, which makes goals a target.

With that being said, it’s Arsenal who come in as heavy favourites, and they will be desperate to secure all three points as they look to stay top. The Gunners were much the better side in both meetings against Brighton this season, and they landed this selection with ease. Arsenal won seven corners when the sides met in the Premier League, and eight corners in the EFL Cup meeting back in October. 

Arsenal’s standards have dropped slightly in recent weeks, as they drew to Wolves and Brentford, but the Gunners have still been able to regularly create good chances, and they are averaging 5.91 corners per game across all competitions. That number rises slightly to 6.05 corners per game when Arsenal play away, highlighting their reliance on set pieces in the tougher fixtures. 

Arsenal look much more succinct in the final third when Bukayo Saka plays, and the 24-year-old has recently returned to the first team picture after missing five matches. He was on the scoresheet against Wolves on his first Premier League game back, and was heavily involved against Tottenham in the next match. Saka recorded five shots in that game, of which two hit the target. He was replaced late on in the North London Derby with a knock, but he recovered in time to start against Chelsea on Sunday evening.

Saka is averaging 3.03 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has put in some excellent performances against Brighton. He found the back of the net in the EFL Cup meeting, despite only featuring from the bench. Saka then had seven shots in the next meeting in the league, with two of those hitting the target. 

Viktor Gyokeres was much more efficient in front of goal against Tottenham, as he bagged himself a brace in the North London Derby. The Sweden international has been hit-and-miss this season, but on his day, he can be devastating. Gyokeres is a very physical player, and he likes to battle against opposing centre backs. The Brighton defenders will have their hands full on Wednesday night trying to contain the striker, and Gyokeres is averaging 1.27 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. 

He should be directly up against Jan Paul van Hecke here, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Dutchman is averaging 1.33 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has landed this selection in nine of his 12 matches at the Amex across all competitions. He hit this mark in both meetings against Arsenal this season, with exactly two fouls drawn in both games.

Enzo Fernandez seems to have a bit of a grudge against Aston Villa. He’s committed 4+ fouls in each of the last three head to head meetings between the sides, committing six fouls in one of these games, and being shown a yellow card in two of them.

The most recent meeting between the sides saw Chelsea commit 16 fouls, with Fernandez responsible for a quarter of these. He contested 14 duels in that game, and should get just as stuck in this time around given that Villa are the most fouled side in the Premier League this season.

Villa’s ability to win fouls lines up quite well with Chelsea’s ill-discipline and petulance which we saw last time out as Chelsea picked up their ninth red card of the season - equalling the tally for the most red cards in a Premier League season with 10 games left to play.

Chelsea have committed 16+ fouls in each of the last three head to head meetings between these sides, with one of these games seeing the Blues commit 21 fouls. 

Fernandez has committed 29 fouls across his 26 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.12 fouls committed per 90. It’s clear that Fernandez is more involved off the ball against Villa and I back him to maintain his high foul count when facing up against Unai Emery’s side.

Morgan Rogers was hauled down twice when these sides met earlier in the season and has maintained an average of 1.30 fouls won per 90 across his 28 Premier League starts this term.

Rogers was also fouled twice when Chelsea last visited Villa Park, with the Blues committing 16 fouls in that clash. Rogers can operate in central and wide areas, often drifting between those two roles - making him an ideal candidate to draw at least two fouls from a very aggressive and occasionally petulant Chelsea side.

Chelsea are averaging 11.3 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season, only four sides have committed more fouls than the Blues in the English top flight. It is pretty notable that Chelsea have exceeded this foul average in each of the last three head to head meetings between these sides.

Aston Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, drawing 361 fouls across their 28 Premier League matches (12.8 per game). This game is massive for both sides too, with both in a tight race for a spot in the Champions League next season so there should be moments where tempers flare. 

Joao Pedro has surprised me quite a bit this season, I was adamant that he couldn’t play as a number nine but his underlying numbers this season and performances under Rosenior suggest that Joao Pedro does have the capability to lead the line for a club like Chelsea.

My main worries with Pedro were his shot volume and physicality, both areas of his game that have improved this season. He’s already had more shots (52-47) and scored more goals (11-10) in the Premier League this season than he did for Brighton last term with the Brazilian maintaining an average of 2.26 shots per 90. 22 of his 52 efforts have found the target, working out to an average of 0.96 shots on target per 90.

I thought Joao Pedro was excellent against Arsenal last time out and pretty much did all the attacking work for Chelsea on his own. He had four shots in that game, with two attempts finding the target. Joao Pedro also scored and had two shots on target when these sides met earlier in the campaign.

Amadou Onana should be in for a feisty midfield battle here against the trio of Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo and Andrey Santos. I think the best word to describe Chelsea’s midfield set up at the moment is frenzied, this trio of midfielders isn’t actually that balanced end I think Chelsea may struggle to actually control games with all three in the same side.

Someone like Romeo Lavia would balance out the Chelsea midfield a bit more, but while they are opting for this current trio it makes the midfield a real battleground. Onana was fouled twice in Aston Villa’s 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, and has drawn 22 fouls across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season (1.53 per 90).

One thing which stood out to me straight away when looking back through the recent head to head meetings between these sides is how high Chelsea’s foul count has been against Aston Villa. This isn’t really a surprise as Villa are the most fouled side in the league, with Chelsea committing 16, 16 and 21 fouls across their last three head to head clashes with Unai Emery’s side.

This selection ties in with the fact that Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, and have been particularly strong when it comes to drawing fouls from Chelsea with the Blues committing 53 fouls across the last three head to head meetings (17.6 per game).

I feel like I’ve been banging the drum about Chelsea’s petulance for months now and the club don’t seem to take it as a serious issue. Pedro Neto’s red card against Arsenal last time out was the ninth red card that Chelsea have picked up this season - they are on course to pick up at least three more red cards before the season is out if they continue at this rate.

Chelsea picked up five yellow cards from their foul count of 16 when these sides met earlier in the season, with Liam Rosenior’s side collecting 65 yellow cards overall in the Premier League (2.32 per game). This is a massive game for Chelsea too, if they were to lose it would represent four games without a win in the Premier League and deal a massive blow to their chances of a Champions League finish so I can see tempers flaring at times.

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations. 

Sesko has scored in each of his last three Premier League matches, despite only starting one of these games.

Sesko has taken 49 shots across his 12 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.65 shots per 90.

27 of these efforts have found the target (2.01 per 90), working out to a shot accuracy of 55%.
Manchester United have taken more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season. 

No Manchester United player has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Casemiro this season (6).

Casemiro has committed 34 fouls across his 25 starts in the Premier League this season (1.60 per 90). 

Casemiro will be up against a midfield duo of Tonali and Joelinton, who combine to win 3.13 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season. 

Joelinton has been shown a yellow card in three of his last five Premier League appearances.

No Newcastle player has picked up more yellow cards than Joelinton in the Premier League this season (7).

Joelinton has committed 34 fouls across his 18 Premier League appearances this term, working out to an average of 2.06 fouls committed per 90. 

Newcastle have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches, and have failed to keep a clean sheet across their last 11 matches in all competitions.

Manchester United have kept just five clean sheets all season in the Premier League, only Leeds and the three sides in the relegation zone have kept fewer. 

Manchester United have seen 45 goals across their 14 away matches in the Premier League this season (3.21 per game). 

The most recent meeting between these sides at St James’ Park produced five goals as Newcastle ran out 4-1 winners over United.