Bournemouth have been one of the most aggressive sides in the Premier League since Andoni Iraola took charge of the club, with the Cherries often ending up with a high card count due to how they press opposition sides.

Bournemouth have collected 67 yellow cards across their 28 matches in the Premier League this season (2.39 per game). Only Brighton (68) and Tottenham (71) have picked up more cards than the Cherries this season, with Iraola’s side also ranking second for fouls in the division (12.3 per game), only behind Wolves (13.4 per game).

Bournemouth collected two yellow cards against Brentford in their 4-1 defeat to the Bees earlier on in the campaign from a foul count of eight - quite below their usual average. Bournemouth collected four yellow cards in their most recent Premier League assignment from a foul count of 15 as they were held 1-1 by Sunderland at home last time out.

Leeds have been a very fun side to watch at Elland Road this season with their 14 home matches producing 41 goals (22 scored, 19 conceded - 2.92 per game). 

Daniel Farke’s side have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of Leeds’ 1-0 defeat to Manchester City last time out - a game that really should have produced more goals with a combined xG of 3.49 from 28 match shots. 

Sunderland tend to unravel a bit on the road, conceding 21 goals across their 14 away games in the Premier League - a tally that accounts for 61% of the total goals that Sunderland have conceded in the Premier League this season. They saw 2+ goals last time out as they managed to hold Bournemouth to a 1-1 draw on the road.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced exactly two goals as the sides played out a 1-1 draw. The underlying data from that clash suggests that Leeds could cover this line on their own with Farke’s side ending that game with an xG of 2.17 from 17 shots.

Barnsley come into this clash having seen BTTS in their most recent assignment as they ran out 3-1 winners over Leyton Orient. That win marked the fifth successive game in which Barnsley have seen BTTS, with Conor Hourihane’s side winning two of these games.

Barnsley have been pretty reliable for entertaining matches all season, and the most recent league meeting between the sides is a good example of the level of goal action we can expect here. The sides played out a 2-2 draw when they last met, with both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.67-1.21). Each of the last four head to head meetings between the sides have seen BTTS.

Wycombe have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches ahead of this clash, and have notably seen 33 goals across their 16 away matches in League One this term (2.06 per game). They’ve only managed to win two of these games, so there should be opportunities for Barnsley to build on their win over Leyton Orient last time out, but a clean sheet is unlikely for the home side.

Liverpool looked as strong as they have been over recent months in their 5-2 win over West Ham last time out, and can take a massive step in their goal of securing Champions League football next season with a win here. 

Liverpool were aided by Aston Villa and Chelsea dropping points over the weekend, giving Manchester United and Arne Slot’s the temporary advantage in the race for a top four finish. Liverpool have won their last four matches coming into this clash, winning three of these games to nil which should give them the confidence to collect all three points at Molineux on Tuesday evening.

Liverpool beat Wolves 2-1 when the sides met earlier in the season, and were pretty convincing in that display with an xG of 1.54 from 14 shots and 67% possession. They’ve won each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides, adding a historical edge to the Reds’ chances of picking up all three points.

Wolves have picked up fewer points than any other side at home in the Premier League this season, winning only two of their 15 matches in front of their own fans. I also think that Rob Edwards may prioritise Wolves’ clash with Liverpool in the FA Cup which takes place over the weekend, as Wolves have much more to fight for in that competition with their relegation to the Championship all but confirmed.

The initial meeting between the sides produced six goals as Winterthur ran out 4-2 winners over Servette, a result that saw both teams score and a winner - a pattern that has emerged frequently for the hosts recently. 

Winterthur have seen BTTS and a winner in three of their last five matches across all competitions, though they have ended up on the losing side in all five of those games. That trend continued last time out as they fell to a 2-1 defeat against St Gallen, their fifth straight league loss.

Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 in that earlier 4-2 thriller (1.16–1.27), and BTTS has landed in three of the last four head to head meetings. With draws proving rare for both teams this season - Winterthur have shared the points in just three of their 13 home matches, while Servette have drawn only four of their 13 away assignments - another decisive outcome looks likely.

Servette have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, the exception being a 0-0 draw against Sion last time out. The visitors have been involved in high scoring affairs on the road all season, with 50 goals across their 13 away trips in the Swiss Super League, averaging 3.84 per game. 

They should contribute to the scoreline here, but Winterthur - despite winning only two of their 13 home games - have still managed 18 goals in front of their own fans, suggesting they can pose an attacking threat even if they are unable to collect all three points.

Barnsley come into this clash having seen both teams score and a winner in their most recent assignment, as they ran out 3-1 victors over Leyton Orient. That result means four of Barnsley’s last five matches have featured BTTS and a winning outcome, with Conor Hourihane’s side triumphing in two of those.

The hosts have been reliable for entertaining, decisive results on home soil all season, with only three of their 15 league games at Oakwell ending in a draw. A remarkable 56 goals have been scored across those fixtures, averaging 3.73 per game, suggesting another high stakes encounter could be on the cards here.

The most recent league meeting between the sides is a good example of the level of goal action we can expect, though that game ended in a 2-2 draw. Both sides registered an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.67–1.21), and while each of the last four head to head meetings have seen BTTS, Barnsley will be targeting a repeat of their 3-1 win over Leyton Orient rather than a share of the spoils this time.

Wycombe have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches ahead of this clash, and have notably been involved in 33 goals across their 16 away trips in League One this term (2.06 per game). They’ve won just two of those games on the road, which should give Barnsley encouragement, but with the visitors consistently contributing to the scoreline, a home clean sheet looks unlikely.

Mateus Mane was bright again in Wolves’ 2-0 win over Aston Villa last time out. He didn’t quite manage to get a goal contribution, but did manage 2+ shots in the game, meaning that Mane has now had 2+ shots in three of his last five Premier League appearances.

Liverpool ran out 5-2 winners against West Ham over the weekend, but that victory wasn’t as straightforward as it looked, with West Ham managing 11 shots in the game and generating an xG of 1.86. Mane made his breakout performance against Liverpool at Anfield earlier in the campaign, managing four shots in that clash - with all of those efforts coming from outside of the box. 

This has been a common trend for Mane when he does take aim, 21 of his 29 shots have come from outside of the box (72%). This suggests that Mane isn’t too calculated with his efforts and will try to get shots away as soon as he gets relatively close to the goal. This works out to a shot average of 2.24 shots per 90, which should be enough for Mane to get at least two shots away here.

Alexis Mac Allister committed two fouls against West Ham last time out as Liverpool ran out 5-2 winners. It’s the second consecutive game that has seen Mac Allister commit at least two fouls, and he should be in for a competitive midfield battle here against Joao Gomes.

Mac Allister has committed 20 fouls across his 23 Premier League starts this term, working out to an average of 0.94 fouls committed per 90. Mac Allister is far more aggressive than this current foul average suggests, he averaged 2.14 fouls committed per 90 last season, and this drop-off can be attributed to the experimental setups that Slot has gone with in midfield this season.

His main opponent here is likely to be Joao Gomes, who was fouled three times in Wolves’ 2-0 win over Aston Villa last time out.

Wolves have let frustration get the better of them on a few occasions this season, mainly due to their struggles in being competitive in the Premier League. Wolves have picked up 60 yellow cards across their 29 Premier League matches this term, working out to an average of 2.06 cards per game.

Wolves committed 13 fouls and picked up one yellow card on their trip to Anfield earlier on in the season, and should really have collected a second yellow from their foul count in that game. Only four sides have picked up more yellow cards than Wolves in the Premier League this season, with Wolves committing more fouls than any other side in the division (13.4 per game).

The initial league meeting between the sides saw 10 corners, Wolves still managed to contribute to the corner count in that game, with Liverpool racking up six of those corners.

Arne Slot has been very vocal about his frustrations with the tactical state of the Premier League at the moment, probably because he built this side for a completely different style of football, but is now leaning more towards the direct and set piece nature of the division.

Liverpool scored three of their five goals from corners against West Ham last time out, racking up 10 corners while also allowing the Hammers to register five. Only Bournemouth, West Ham and Newcastle are seeing more corners per game than Liverpool (10.4) in the Premier League this season.

Wolves are seeing 9.3 corners per game, which still covers the line we require here, and Liverpool’s recent shift to being more effective from corners and set pieces should see this line covered pretty comfortably by both sides.

Marcos Senesi has only landed this selection in two of his last six starts for Bournemouth, but the Argentine international is averaging 0.87 fouls drawn per 90 this season in the Premier League, which is relatively high for a centre back.

Senesi is averaging 9.53 duels per game for Bournemouth this campaign, highlighting how he is the more aggressive player in the defensive partnership with James Hill, tasked with stepping up and contesting aerial duels. Senesi is adept at drawing free-kicks and tends to go down under light contact, which allows Bournemouth to establish themselves in possession. 

Senesi draws an excellent matchup midweek against Igor Thiago, who is a physical presence up top for Brentford. The Brazilian is averaging 2.05 fouls per 90 across all competition this season, rising to 2.54 when playing away. Senesi was fouled twice in the reverse fixture and is one to keep an eye on again. 

With Reinildo and Dennis Cirkin out injured, Trai Hume was forced to deputise at left back against Bournemouth at the weekend, with Lutsharel Geertruida filling in at right back. Considering Hume played on the opposite side to where he has featured for most of the season, he did well on the defensive front. 

If Hume starts on the left again, he should find duels against Jayden Bogle and James Justin for Leeds on Tuesday night. The former is averaging 0.98 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and the latter is at 1.85 fouls drawn per 90. Both players see plenty of the ball for Leeds on the flank and are adept at drawing contact. 

Hume could have his hands full dealing with the pair, and he was carded in the reverse fixture, having accrued three fouls in total. The fullback has landed this selection in eight of his last eleven Premier League starts.

Gueye will have the tough task of keeping this Burnley midfield quiet, Jaidon Anthony (1.71 fouls won per90), Lesley Ugochukwu (1.29) and Tchaouna (1.32) are all really strong winners of fouls.

Although Gueye may only average 0.85 fouls per90, his potential opponents should play a huge role in improving his chances. There's also the chance that Hannibal Mejbri plays, who averages the most fouls won per90 in the Premier League (3.67).

At AFCON, Gueye committed a foul in all seven games he featured, and since returning has committed a foul in three of his last six. But as I say, a lot of this bet is reliant on his opponents, and I'm confident he'll get stuck in.

I’ve been waiting for Sesko to start firing in the Premier League and it looks like Carrick now trusts him enough given his goals in recent games against Everton and Crystal Palace.

I love Sesko because he can score so many different types of goals. He’s got the shot power to take aim for range, and he's just as effective in the air as he showed with his headed goal against Crystal Palace last time out.

Sesko has taken 49 shots across his 12 starts in the Premier League this term, working out to an average of 3.65 shots per 90. He’s scored eight goals across these starts which is a very impressive tally for a young striker in his first season in the Premier League.

Strikers play in streaks of form based on confidence. Sesko should have plenty of that having netted in each of his last three games for Manchester United - managing four shots against Crystal Palace last time out. He should get plenty of service with United taking more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season and Newcastle without a clean sheet in their last 11 matches across all competitions.

This bet has landed in 50% of Newcastle's home league games this season.

They've dropped off at home this season, managing 1.64 Points Per Game (PPG), compared to the 2 PPG they posted last season.

They have lost their last three home league games to teams lower in the league than Man Utd. Losing to Everton, Brentford, and Aston Villa, conceding eight goals in that time.

They've actually conceded three goals in three of their last four home league games - as they needed a late show to beat Leeds 4-3, the home league outing before this run of losses.

Newcastle have hosted eight of the current Premier League top 10 this season in the league; they have only won two of those games, drawing one and losing the other five. So this bet has landed on six of the eight (75%) occasions they've hosted a side in the current Premier League top 10 this season.

This bet has landed in 10 of Mbeumo's last 12 Premier League games.

In Newcastle's last five league outings, the opposition right winger has covered this line.

- Dwight McNeil: had four shots at St James' this weekend just gone.

- Antoine Semenyo: had three shots and then Phil Foden added another as a Sub On Play On replacement.

- Wilson Odobert: came off early and was replaced by Mathys Tel, who had six shots!

- Dango Ouattara: two shots

- Mohamed Salah: two shots

Newcastle need a result more than Man Utd in this one; the dynamics of the game could play out for Michael Carrick's side to utilise their strength on the counter-attack. Mbeumo is crucial to that with his pace.

Although he loves to cut in on his left to strike, the Cameroon international is not one-dimensional. 36% of his shots this season have been with either his right foot or his head, so there are plenty of angles that Mbeumo can land this bet for us under the lights in the North East.

Nick Pope has been a very busy man in the Newcastle goal this season. He’s been forced into making 67 saves across his 22 starts in the Premier League this term, working out to an average of 3.07 saves per 90 at a save percentage of 67.7%.

Aaron Ramsdale was the keeper for Newcastle the last time these sides met and was forced to make 3 saves. Pope should return as the starting keeper here, given that he’s played the last two Premier League matches against Manchester City and Everton, making seven saves across these games.

Manchester United have taken more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season, and managed 11 shots on target against Crystal Palace last time out - drawing nine saves from Dean Henderson in that clash.

Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations. 

Brighton are one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League, collecting 68 yellow cards across their 28 matches (2.42 per game). Only Tottenham (71) have picked up more cards than Brighton in the Premier League this season, setting the Seagulls up well to pick up at least 2+ cards in this crucial game in the title race.

It’s not totally surprising that Brighton rank high for fouls and cards in the Premier League this season, they have one of the youngest squads in the league and are managed by the youngest manager in the division so the Seagulls can struggle when it comes to restraint. 

They picked up three yellow cards when they faced Arsenal earlier on in the season, from a foul count of 13, and I think they’ll be antagonised enough by the league leaders to pick up at least two cautions in this clash. 

Newcastle have seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 games - promising another goal heavy affair at St James’ Park when the most exciting team in the Premier League visit.

Manchester United have been very impressive under Michael Carrick so far, and saw 3+ goals last time out as they came from behind to beat Crystal Palace 1-0. United have seen 45 goals across their 14 away matches in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.21 goals per game. They should be full of confidence given their strong recent form, and can punish a Newcastle side who are far from secure at the back.

Eddie Howe’s side have seen 49 goals across their 14 matches at St James’ Park this season (3.5 goals per game), notably already conceding more goals at home this season (23) than they did across the entirety of last season (20). This highlights the defensive issues that Newcastle have battled with all campaign, and should lead to another frenzied evening at St James’ Park. 

Having lost just three of their last 15 Premier League matches, Leeds have established some daylight between themselves and the bottom three, sitting six points clear of the drop.

Their home form has been a key reason for that, as Daniel Farke’s men boast the record of six wins, four draws, and four losses from their 14 matches at Elland Road this term. One of those defeats came on Saturday evening, but Leeds were competitive against Man City and were unfortunate to be beaten 1-0. 

Sunderland are doing better than Leeds in terms of league position, but their performances have been a lot more inconsistent recently. They were held to a 1-1 draw by Bournemouth at the weekend, making it four league games without a win for the Black Cats.

Sunderland have struggled on their travels this season, and have only won three of their 14 matches.

Sunderland have been much better at the Stadium of Light, but they were fortunate to come away with a point when they faced Leeds back in December. The visitors managed 17 shots worth 2.17 xG, while Sunderland recorded just eight shots worth 0.7 xG in return. 

After Simon Adingra scored in the 28th minute, Sunderland were quite passive in their approach, which allowed Leeds to dominate. The visitors managed nine corners to Sunderland’s three, but just lacked ruthlessness in the final third to score the decisive goal. 

Leeds tend to perform better when they play in front of a home crowd, and they will be hoping for a better result on Tuesday night. They are averaging 4.36 corners per game in the Premier League this season, rising to 5.29 when playing at Elland Road, and this selection has landed in six of their last seven home outings.

Leeds registered nine corners in the reverse fixture, and they should be able to carve out chances once again here.

Sunderland are conceding on average 5.0 corners per game in the Premier League this season, rising slightly to 5.36 when playing away. They haven’t been able to exert as much control on their travels, and Sunderland have a tendency to sit deep, which can allow their opponents to dominate proceedings. 

Pascal Struijk will be Leeds’ primary set-piece threat, and he should have numerous opportunities to get into the box here. He failed to register a shot in the reverse, but his data at home is much more appealing.

The Dutchman is averaging 0.72 shots per 90 when playing away in the league this season, increasing significantly to 1.15 at Elland Road. He has landed this bet in ten out of 13 appearances overall.

With Reinildo and Dennis Cirkin out injured, Trai Hume was forced to deputise at left back against Bournemouth at the weekend, with Lutsharel Geertruida filling in at right back. Considering Hume played on the opposite side to where he has featured for most of the season, he did well on the defensive front. 

If Hume starts on the left again, he should find duels against Jayden Bogle and James Justin for Leeds on Tuesday night. The former is averaging 0.98 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and the latter is at 1.85 fouls drawn per 90. Both players see plenty of the ball for Leeds on the flank and are adept at drawing contact. 

Hume could have his hands full dealing with the pair, and he was carded in the reverse fixture, having accrued three fouls in total. The fullback has landed this selection in eight of his last eleven Premier League starts.

Bournemouth are in a much better place since that match took place in December, and they will be hoping to extend their unbeaten run.

The hosts should be confident, given how that 4-1 scoreline massively flattered the hosts. Kevin Schade bagged himself a hat-trick, but Caoimhin Kelleher put in an equally strong case for picking up the Man of the Match award, racking up a total of nine saves. 

Bournemouth registered 20 shots worth 2.72 xG at the Gtech Stadium, with ten of those hitting the target. In return, Brentford managed 15 shots worth 3.66 xG. That translated to a total of 17 corners, with Bournemouth accounting for 15 of those.

This is a clash between two attack-minded teams, and chances are expected at either end of the field once again. Because of that, corners remain a target.

With the reverse fixture taking place at the end of December, Rayan had not yet arrived on the south coast, but he looks set to start against Brentford on Tuesday night.

The Brazilian international has hit the ground running for his new side, and already has two goals and an assist to his name after four appearances. He was on the scoresheet on his first start for Bournemouth against Aston Villa, and followed that up with another goal against Everton.

Rayan was unlucky to see that scoring streak ended against West Ham, as he struck the post after a solo run. However, he did still land this selection by registering a shot on target. 

Antoine Semenyo scored the only goal for Bournemouth in the reverse fixture against Brentford, as he recorded five shots, of which four hit the target. Rayan is a very similar profile to Semenyo, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

Robin Roefs has been one of the signings of the season and has remained a reliable shot stopper for Sunderland throughout the campaign. He was forced into four saves when the sides met earlier in the season, and could come into the limelight even more now that Sunderland are the away side.

It is pretty obvious that Regis Le Bris’ side prefer playing at home when looking at their record on the road this season. Sunderland have conceded 61% of their goals in the Premier League in their away games this term - suggesting that the Black Cats have to rely on Roefs a bit more when they travel away from the North East.

Roefs has been forced into making 85 saves across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 3.04 saves per 90 with a very promising save percentage of 71.4%. He was called into action four times in Sunderland’s most recent away game, with that display earning Sunderland a point against Bournemouth.

The initial league meeting between these sides finished 0-0, but still produced 11 match corners - offering promise for a high corner count in this latest meeting between the two sides. Corners have never been more important than they are today in the Premier League, with pretty much every club leaning towards set pieces as a viable route to goal.

Everton are seeing 9.43 corners per game across their 28 matches in the Premier League this term, with this metric rising to 9.64 corners per game when looking at their home matches in the Premier League this season. Burnley are seeing 9.39 corners per game in the top flight this term, with the Clarets seeing quite a jump to 10.07 corners per game when honing in on their away matches in the Premier League.

I also think the style of both of these sides lends itself to quite a high corner count. Burnley tend to sit quite deep and shut off central areas, allowing Everton to rack up their corner count as they try to breakdown Burnley from the wide areas. There is then the tactical argument for Burnley to end up with a decent corner count with the success they may have on the counter attack in this game.

Man City were able to hold on to a 1-0 win against Leeds on Saturday evening. It wasn’t the most convincing performance from Pep Guardiola’s side, but it extended their winning streak in the Premier League to four matches, keeping the pressure on Arsenal at the top. Man City have been able to grind out results even when they are not at their best, which is a great sign for them as we approach the run-in. 

They are building momentum at a key stage of the season, and Man City look like a tough side to beat at the moment. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, come into this clash in a far more fragile position. They were beaten by Brighton at the Amex Stadium last time out, making it three losses in a row across all competitions. Despite trailing from the 15th minute, Forest only managed 13 shots worth just 0.79 xG.

Forest are only two points above the relegation zone, and Vitor Pereira’s fifth game in charge looks set to be a difficult assignment. Man City won 2-1 in the reverse fixture at the City Ground, and it was a dominant display from Pep Guardiola’s men. They recorded 16 shots worth 1.45 xG, while the hosts managed just seven efforts worth 0.55 xG in return. John Victor was in goal for the hosts then, and he made three saves. However, the Brazil international is ruled out of this midweek clash due to injury, which means Matz Sels should start.

Sels made his return from injury against Brighton at the weekend, and he looked in good nick, registering five saves. He will have to be on form again here, as City are forcing 3.65 opposition saves per game this season, rising to 4.18 when playing at the Etihad. 

Antoine Semenyo played a decisive role against Leeds at the weekend, scoring the only goal of the game to secure three points for his side. That finish ticked his tally to six goals since joining Man City in January, and 16 for the season overall. He has hit the ground running for his new club, continuing to play with confidence in the final third, and Semenyo is averaging 2.16 shots per 90 for City. He has landed this selection in six of his 10 starts for his new club so far, also providing two assists. 

City should dominate proceedings again at home here, which will allow Semenyo to get involved high up the pitch. He will be confident heading into this matchup, given that he has scored in two of his last three meetings with Forest.

In addition to his output in the final third, Antoine Semenyo has shown a willingness to contribute defensively. During the first half of the season with Bournemouth, he had an average of 1.85 fouls per 90, reflecting an aggressive approach in duels. Despite City being much better at retaining possession, that figure has remained relatively high at 1.45 fouls per 90 across all competitions for his new club. 

Semenyo will be up against Neco Williams on the flank in midweek, which is an ideal matchup. The Welshman is effective at drawing free kicks, averaging 1.7 fouls drawn per 90 this season, rising to 1.98 on the road. In a tough game like this, that could be useful to alleviate the pressure on his side. Neco Williams sees plenty of the ball for Forest and is confident pushing forward, which means he should have plenty of duels against Semenyo.

Arsenal have won both head-to-head encounters against Brighton this season, and they had plenty of success in the final third when the sides last met in December. The Gunners racked up 24 shots and four big chances worth 3.08 xG - if not for Bart Verbruggen’s five saves, the scoreline really could have got out of hand (winning only 2-1 in the end). 

Brighton have underperformed this campaign so far, and their lack of cohesion at the back has been a significant reason why. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 matches across all competitions. 

However, they have only lost just two of their 13 league matches at the Amex Stadium this season, and they took points off Arsenal when the sides last met on the South Coast, with that game finishing 1-1. Both sides have the potential to contribute to the scoreline here, which makes goals a target.

With that being said, it’s Arsenal who come in as heavy favourites, and they will be desperate to secure all three points as they look to stay top. The Gunners were much the better side in both meetings against Brighton this season, and they landed this selection with ease. Arsenal won seven corners when the sides met in the Premier League, and eight corners in the EFL Cup meeting back in October. 

Arsenal’s standards have dropped slightly in recent weeks, as they drew to Wolves and Brentford, but the Gunners have still been able to regularly create good chances, and they are averaging 5.91 corners per game across all competitions. That number rises slightly to 6.05 corners per game when Arsenal play away, highlighting their reliance on set pieces in the tougher fixtures. 

Arsenal look much more succinct in the final third when Bukayo Saka plays, and the 24-year-old has recently returned to the first team picture after missing five matches. He was on the scoresheet against Wolves on his first Premier League game back, and was heavily involved against Tottenham in the next match. Saka recorded five shots in that game, of which two hit the target. He was replaced late on in the North London Derby with a knock, but he recovered in time to start against Chelsea on Sunday evening.

Saka is averaging 3.03 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has put in some excellent performances against Brighton. He found the back of the net in the EFL Cup meeting, despite only featuring from the bench. Saka then had seven shots in the next meeting in the league, with two of those hitting the target. 

Viktor Gyokeres was much more efficient in front of goal against Tottenham, as he bagged himself a brace in the North London Derby. The Sweden international has been hit-and-miss this season, but on his day, he can be devastating. Gyokeres is a very physical player, and he likes to battle against opposing centre backs. The Brighton defenders will have their hands full on Wednesday night trying to contain the striker, and Gyokeres is averaging 1.27 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season. 

He should be directly up against Jan Paul van Hecke here, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Dutchman is averaging 1.33 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has landed this selection in nine of his 12 matches at the Amex across all competitions. He hit this mark in both meetings against Arsenal this season, with exactly two fouls drawn in both games.

Enzo Fernandez seems to have a bit of a grudge against Aston Villa. He’s committed 4+ fouls in each of the last three head to head meetings between the sides, committing six fouls in one of these games, and being shown a yellow card in two of them.

The most recent meeting between the sides saw Chelsea commit 16 fouls, with Fernandez responsible for a quarter of these. He contested 14 duels in that game, and should get just as stuck in this time around given that Villa are the most fouled side in the Premier League this season.

Villa’s ability to win fouls lines up quite well with Chelsea’s ill-discipline and petulance which we saw last time out as Chelsea picked up their ninth red card of the season - equalling the tally for the most red cards in a Premier League season with 10 games left to play.

Chelsea have committed 16+ fouls in each of the last three head to head meetings between these sides, with one of these games seeing the Blues commit 21 fouls. 

Fernandez has committed 29 fouls across his 26 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.12 fouls committed per 90. It’s clear that Fernandez is more involved off the ball against Villa and I back him to maintain his high foul count when facing up against Unai Emery’s side.

Morgan Rogers was hauled down twice when these sides met earlier in the season and has maintained an average of 1.30 fouls won per 90 across his 28 Premier League starts this term.

Rogers was also fouled twice when Chelsea last visited Villa Park, with the Blues committing 16 fouls in that clash. Rogers can operate in central and wide areas, often drifting between those two roles - making him an ideal candidate to draw at least two fouls from a very aggressive and occasionally petulant Chelsea side.

Chelsea are averaging 11.3 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season, only four sides have committed more fouls than the Blues in the English top flight. It is pretty notable that Chelsea have exceeded this foul average in each of the last three head to head meetings between these sides.

Aston Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, drawing 361 fouls across their 28 Premier League matches (12.8 per game). This game is massive for both sides too, with both in a tight race for a spot in the Champions League next season so there should be moments where tempers flare. 

Joao Pedro has surprised me quite a bit this season, I was adamant that he couldn’t play as a number nine but his underlying numbers this season and performances under Rosenior suggest that Joao Pedro does have the capability to lead the line for a club like Chelsea.

My main worries with Pedro were his shot volume and physicality, both areas of his game that have improved this season. He’s already had more shots (52-47) and scored more goals (11-10) in the Premier League this season than he did for Brighton last term with the Brazilian maintaining an average of 2.26 shots per 90. 22 of his 52 efforts have found the target, working out to an average of 0.96 shots on target per 90.

I thought Joao Pedro was excellent against Arsenal last time out and pretty much did all the attacking work for Chelsea on his own. He had four shots in that game, with two attempts finding the target. Joao Pedro also scored and had two shots on target when these sides met earlier in the campaign.

Amadou Onana should be in for a feisty midfield battle here against the trio of Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo and Andrey Santos. I think the best word to describe Chelsea’s midfield set up at the moment is frenzied, this trio of midfielders isn’t actually that balanced end I think Chelsea may struggle to actually control games with all three in the same side.

Someone like Romeo Lavia would balance out the Chelsea midfield a bit more, but while they are opting for this current trio it makes the midfield a real battleground. Onana was fouled twice in Aston Villa’s 2-0 defeat to Wolves last time out, and has drawn 22 fouls across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season (1.53 per 90).

One thing which stood out to me straight away when looking back through the recent head to head meetings between these sides is how high Chelsea’s foul count has been against Aston Villa. This isn’t really a surprise as Villa are the most fouled side in the league, with Chelsea committing 16, 16 and 21 fouls across their last three head to head clashes with Unai Emery’s side.

This selection ties in with the fact that Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season, and have been particularly strong when it comes to drawing fouls from Chelsea with the Blues committing 53 fouls across the last three head to head meetings (17.6 per game).

I feel like I’ve been banging the drum about Chelsea’s petulance for months now and the club don’t seem to take it as a serious issue. Pedro Neto’s red card against Arsenal last time out was the ninth red card that Chelsea have picked up this season - they are on course to pick up at least three more red cards before the season is out if they continue at this rate.

Chelsea picked up five yellow cards from their foul count of 16 when these sides met earlier in the season, with Liam Rosenior’s side collecting 65 yellow cards overall in the Premier League (2.32 per game). This is a massive game for Chelsea too, if they were to lose it would represent four games without a win in the Premier League and deal a massive blow to their chances of a Champions League finish so I can see tempers flaring at times.

One of Chelsea’s most standout traits this season has been making more of corners and set pieces. They racked up 10 corners in their 2-1 defeat to Arsenal over the weekend, also getting their goal through this avenue as Reece James forced Piero Hincapie to head into his own net.

Chelsea have scored 10 of their 49 goals in the Premier League from set pieces (20%), so it is clearly an avenue that the Blues look to when they are struggling from open play. Chelsea registered six corners in their 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa earlier in the season, and are averaging 6.00 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

This average drops slightly, but still above the line we require, when looking at their away matches in the Premier League this term with Chelsea averaging 5.00 corners per game across their 14 away matches. Chelsea have excellent delivery from these corners too, so I wouldn’t rule out Chelsea managing to score a goal again from these set play situations.