Gerwyn Price to Win v Jonny Clayton

Now this one’s fascinating when you dive into it. These two know each other inside out; World Cup partners, but the head-to-head is seriously one-sided. Price has won 18 of their last 20 meetings, which is just a huge psychological edge.

Clayton did finally break that run in the Premier League earlier this year, but since then? Two big matches, two wins for Price, a 7-4 in the Players’ Championship semi-final and a tight 10-8 at the UK Open.

Price has also been very vocal about how crucial these early points are, and sitting third in the table, one solid night in Leeds could seal his spot at the O2. He’s fresh as well, skipping the midweek events.

Bottom line: it won’t be a walkover, but everything still points to Price getting the job done.

Luke Humphries to Win Josh Rock

This one leans heavily on recent form and history. Rock hasn’t beaten Humphries since September 2024, and Humphries has taken the last four meetings including their Premier League clash this year.

What’s interesting is Humphries’ approach lately. He slowed things down a bit last week, looked more methodical, and still made the final. If that’s a deliberate tweak, it could make him even tougher to beat.

There is that little warning sign; players chasing big emotional wins in home cities haven’t fared well recently, but even with that in mind, Humphries just looks too solid here.

Add in the fact Leeds means a lot to him, and you’d expect him to rise to it rather than fall short.

The Nottingham Forest left-back has had at least 1 shot in each of his 3 matches against Aston Villa this season.

Had 3 shots in the latest league match against Villa on 12 April and 1 last week.

He is 4th overall in shooting for Forest in all competitions this season with 59 efforts, offering 1.34 per 90 minutes.

Villa have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 Europa League home matches.

Their previous meeting against Nottingham Forest at Villa Park saw them run out 3-1 winners.

Scored 2+ goals in their last 9 home matches against Forest, dating back to 1995.

Aston Villa were beaten 1-0 in the first leg, which was a disappointing start in the circumstances, but they are still in this tie, and will have hope they can complete the comeback to feature in the Europa League final.

Villa aren’t in the best of form coming into this clash, but they have typically performed better on home turf this season, and they beat this Forest side 3-1 at Villa Park when these sides met in the Premier League back in January. Ollie Watkins opened the scoring in that game, before John McGinn bagged himself a brace. Unai Emery’s men dominated proceedings, registering 73% possession, which translated to 11 shots worth 1.59 xG. 

However, Forest come into this clash in a rich vein of form, and they beat Chelsea 3-1 on Monday night to make it five successive wins across all competitions. Even though they lead on aggregate, Forest will fancy their chances of contributing to the scoreline again here.

Villa managed four corners in that previous matchup, but the context around this match is slightly different.

They will have to be front-footed right from the outset here, given that they trail by a goal, which makes corners a target. Villa had seven corners in the first leg at the City Ground despite playing away from home, which highlights how they were often able to get to the byline. 

Aston Villa are averaging 5.12 corners per game across all competitions this season, rising to 5.52 when playing on home turf. Unai Emery opted for a few changes against Spurs last time out, which shows how he is prioritising the Europa League, and his side should throw the kitchen sink at Forest here.

The visitors are conceding an average of 4.92 corners per game when playing away this season, and that figure looks set to rise on Thursday night. 

Lucas Digne was one of a few players rested at the weekend, which is a sign that he looks set for a return to the starting eleven.

The fullback will be desperate to make amends here, after he conceded the penalty in unfortunate circumstances in the first leg. His handball in the box handed Forest the penalty that ultimately decided the tie. The Frenchman was substituted shortly after the goal, but he had already landed this selection as he registered a shot in the 57th minute. 

Digne is averaging just 0.65 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, but he has registered four shots in his last three matches, landing this selection in each of those. He has shown an increased willingness to get forward, and his one shot in the first leg came from inside the box.

Digne should be able to pick up some promising positions here, especially if Forest sit deep. 

Igor Jesus has started alongside another centre forward in a strike partnership in recent weeks, and Vitor Pereira is likely to recall Chris Wood to partner the Brazilian for this match. Jesus is expected to play slightly deeper, which means he is more likely to be involved in the build-up play, giving him more duels to contest. 

Jesus recorded no fouls in the first leg, but he should have a lot more defensive work to get through here, given the context of the tie, and the centre forward has typically seen a massive increase in fouls when playing away. In fact, he is averaging 1.36 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season when playing at the City Ground, compared to 1.92 when playing away.

He racked up five fouls when he last made the trip to Villa Park back in January. 

Palace came away 3-1 winners in the first leg meeting, scoring after just one minute.

Shakhtar have only kept one clean sheet in their last five matches across all competitions, and have failed to win each of their last two away matches in the competition.

Crystal Palace have only lost one Conference League game at home this season.

The first leg meeting between these sides produced three goals as Braga came away 2-1 winners.

Freiburg have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of these games.

Braga have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five Europa League matches.

Aston Villa have drawn more fouls and cards than any other side in the Premier League this season.

Forest committed 20 fouls and picked up two cards on their last trip to Villa Park. They also committed 15 fouls and picked up 2+ cards when the sides last met in the Premier League.

Forest have collected 23 yellow cards in the Europa League this season.

Strasbourg have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, seeing 3+ goals in three of these games.

Strasbourg overturned a first leg deficit in the quarter final of the Conference League, scoring four goals in the home game to win the tie.

Rayo Vallecano have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five Conference League matches.

Sarr has scored more goals than any other player in the Conference League this season (8).

Sarr scored the quickest goal in Conference League history with his strike against Shakhtar last week after just one minute.

Sarr has scored 18 goals across all competitions for Oliver Glasner’s side this season.

Ollie Watkins has scored four goals across his eight starts in the Europa League this season.

Ollie Watkins has netted three goals in his last five starts for Aston Villa across all competitions.

Watkins scored the last time that Villa welcomed Forest to Villa Park, with Unai Emery’s side coming away 3-1 winners in that game. 

No Strasbourg player has scored more goals than Godo in the Conference League this season (4).

Godo has also netted eight goals across his 15 starts in Ligue 1 this season.

Strasbourg overturned a first leg deficit in the last round to come away 4-0 winners over Mainz in the second leg.