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Senegal squeezed through to the knockouts after beating Iraq 5-0 in their final group stage game, which made their goal difference good enough to rank in the top eight of the 3rd-placed teams. The Lions were helped by an early red card for Rebin Sulaka, but Senegal still needed to be clinical in the final third.

Prior to that, Senegal were far from convincing - they were beaten 3-1 by France in their opening game, before losing 3-2 against Norway in their next match. Goals have been aplenty whenever Senegal are involved, and their defensive record should give Belgium confidence.

The Red Devils also ended their group stage campaign on a high, thrashing New Zealand 5-1 in a dominant display which highlights just how strong they are going forward.

Both Senegal and Belgium have looked a lot more comfortable going forward, than they have when defending. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see chances available at both ends of the field here, which makes corners a target. 

Belgium cleared this line on their own against New Zealand, finishing that game with exactly eight corners. With Jeremy Doku back in the first team picture, Belgium’s threat from wide areas has increased significantly. 

Senegal are averaging 11.34 corners per game at the World Cup so far, with 6.67 for and 4.67 conceded, and this selection has landed in all three of their World Cup matches so far.

Kevin De Bruyne had four shots against Egypt, then five against Iran, so he was unfortunate not to find the back of the net in those matches. The former Man City man finally opened his account at this World Cup against New Zealand last time out, firing one into the bottom corner from outside the box to score Belgium’s third of the game. He recorded seven shots in total, with two hitting the target, meaning De Bruyne has already racked up 16 shots at the World Cup so far. 

Even at 34 years old, this Belgium attack is still built around De Bruyne, and the Red Devils will be relying on their attacking midfielder to provide a moment of inspiration against Senegal.

Pape Gueye was the standout performer for Senegal against Iraq last time out, bagging himself a brace. Both of his goals were both screamers which nestled into the top corner, so he should come into this clash full of confidence. 

Pape Gueye only featured for the final 30 minutes off the bench as well, but that was also enough time for him to pick up a yellow card. The 27-year-old is a combative presence in midfield, and he had an average of 2.78 fouls per 90 for Senegal during their AFCON campaign, picking up two yellow cards from his five starts. He also had an average of 1.49 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Villarreal this season.

Pape Gueye should find duels against Youri Tielemans in midfield, and that is a matchup to keep a close eye on. The Aston Villa midfielder has landed this selection in all three of his World Cup appearances so far, with a total of seven fouls drawn across those games. In fact, he also landed this selection in each of his four starts for Belgium prior to the World Cup, which shows just how consistently he has been able to clear this line. 

Tielemans typically sees a lot of the ball for Belgium in midfield, and he is adept at using his body to buy free kicks when pressed. Senegal like to be aggressive in their duels, particularly in midfield, which makes this market one to target again.

Maxim De Cuyper scored just twice from his 30 Premier League appearances for Brighton this season, which doesn't quite show just how much he contributes going forward. He had an average of 2.36 shots per 90 across his six qualifying starts for Belgium, with two of those efforts finding the back of the net. 

De Cuyper is afforded plenty of attacking freedom by Rudi Garcia, who likes his full backs to be front-footed and push into advanced positions. The Brighton man only featured from the bench against Egypt in round one of the World Cup, but he had five shots against Iran in the proceeding match, and four of those hit the target. Even against New Zealand last time out, De Cuyper landed this selection as one of his two efforts forced a save from the opposing goalkeeper.

Ismaila Sarr was also on the scoresheet against Iraq, as he managed three shots, and two hit the target. Prior to that, he scored a brace against Norway, meaning Sarr is currently the top scorer for Senegal at this World Cup. 

Sarr has been able to carry forward his impressive form for Crystal Palace into this tournament, after scoring 21 goals in 43 appearances across all competitions. He is one of Senegal's most in-form attacking players at the moment. 

Sarr accounted for three of Senegal's six shots against France in round one, but was unfortunate that none of those efforts found the target. Still, he was able to find some promising positions, and that should be the case again here. 

Brandon Mechele had an average of just 0.85 fouls per 90 for Club Brugge this season, which is nothing to write home about, but his role for Belgium is considerably different to what is asked of him at club level. The centre back is tasked with being a lot more aggressive in his duels, which has translated to five fouls committed in his three World Cup appearances so far.

Mechele has so far been fortunate to escape without a booking in any of those appearances, but this upcoming clash against Senegal looks set to be his toughest test yet. He will have to deal with the likes of Nicolas Jackson, Sadio Mane and Ismaila Sarr.

On the opposite side, Moussa Niakhate has been a bit more reserved in terms of fouls, with just three to his name, but he has been adept at drawing contact throughout the tournament. The 30-year-old has actually drawn the joint-most fouls of any Senegal player at this World Cup so far, which has been useful to alleviate the pressure on his side.

He tends to go down quite easily when he does feel contact, which makes Niakhate quite a frustrating opponent to come up against. There should be plenty of pressure for him to absorb against Belgium, so this market is one to target for him again.

This should be a really entertaining tie between two sides who have looked far from convincing at the back in their group stage matches. 

Belgium only kept one clean sheet across their three group games (v Iran), conceding against both Egypt and New Zealand. Belgium had 35 shots in that final group game to secure their passage through as group winners.

Senegal have seen 4+ goals in all three of their World Cup games so far, failing to beat both Norway and France - but scoring three goals across two games against those opponents. 

Ismaila Sarr is Senegal’s all time leading scorer at the World Cup with four goals - three of which have come in this competition, with strikes against Norway and Iraq. 

Breel Embolo always performs on the international stage for Switzerland and has been impressive again at this World Cup with three goal contributions across his three starts.

He’s taken seven shots across those three games (2.39 per 90), finding the target on three occasions (1.02 per 90). He’s on penalties for Switzerland and will cause problems for the Algeria backline, aided by Johan Manzambi, who has also been impressive for Murat Yakin’s side.

Embolo has scored 25 goals across 89 caps for Switzerland, with four of those goals coming across six starts during qualifying. He found the target nine times across those games, working out to an average of 1.66 shots on target per 90.

Riyad Mahrez is still a really important figure in this Algeria side and scored twice against Austria last time out to set up this tie.

He’s had at least one shot in every game, finding the target against Jordan to go alongside the two goals he scored against Austria. He is on free kicks and penalties for Algeria, which can offer him an extra route to the target if he is limited from open play.

Mahrez has scored 40 goals across 97 caps for Algeria, which is a really consistent record at international level. He scored three goals across just four starts during AFCON earlier this year; all three of his efforts on target during that campaign ended up in the back of the net.

Did you know Xhaka has only committed one foul at the World Cup so far? 

It’s actually not one of his main attributes, despite the assumption that the Sunderland midfielder is always reckless. He has, however, won four fouls across his three starts at the World Cup (1.33 per 90).

Xhaka averaged 1.54 fouls won per 90 for Switzerland during the qualifying campaign, showing that winning fouls is actually a consistent part of his game when lining up for his nation.

Xhaka also maintained an average of 1.27 fouls won per 90 during the 25/26 Premier League season for Sunderland, a tally that was notably higher than his fouls committed average (0.71 per 90).

Algeria do have real attacking talent that can hurt a Swiss side that I haven’t been too impressed with so far. They haven’t really convinced me in any of their games so far, despite winning two matches, and I think they are struggling slightly with the weather conditions.

Algeria drew two saves from Alexander Schlager in their most recent game against Austria, and also forced six saves from Jordan’s keeper as they came away 2-1 winners in that clash.

They didn’t trouble Argentina in their opening game, but they have grown into the tournament and should be able to test Gregor Kobel, who has already been called into action on 11 occasions across his three matches (3.67 per 90) with a save percentage of 78.6%. 

Both of these sides will see this as a pretty favourable draw, especially seeing as the winner of this tie will face either Colombia or Ghana for a spot in the quarter-finals of the World Cup.

There are no easy games at the World Cup, but this is certainly the weakest portion of the draw and a chance for an unlikely side to emerge as an underdog. I think both sides set up to try and win the game rather than sit back and hope for penalties.

Both sides have seen 2+ goals in all three of their group games, with Algeria seeing 3+ goals in all three of their matches and notably failing to keep a clean sheet in any of those games. Switzerland are also without a shutout, conceding to the likes of Bosnia and Qatar across their group stage matches.

I don’t trust the backline of this Portugal side and think they will need to rely on Diogo Costa at times to get them through this tie.

Diogo Costa is a pretty solid keeper and should be able to stand up to the attacking threat of Croatia, who showed they can cause problems with the two goals they scored against England in their opening game of the tournament.

He’s had to make nine saves already at the World Cup across his three starts (3.00 per 90) with a save percentage of 90% - only three keepers of the sides left in the competition can boast a better save percentage than the Porto keeper. 

Portugal’s vulnerability at the back was exposed on a few occasions by Colombia last time out, who managed to draw six saves from Diogo Costa, showing how the keeper will be crucial to any success that Portugal have at the World Cup.

These nations have met quite often over the last few years, with each of the last three head-to-head meetings since 2024 seeing 2+ goals.

I’ve already mentioned the vulnerability of this Portuguese backline, and Croatia could fall into the same bracket. They conceded four goals against England in their opening game, and haven’t really been tested by Panama or Ghana in their other group matches.

Portugal saw 2+ goals in two of their three group matches, except a 0-0 draw against Colombia, which should have really produced a few goals with a combined xG of 2.63 from 36 shots overall. 

Joao Cancelo has committed three fouls at the World Cup so far (2.00 per 90) and has been replaced at half time twice, with Roberto Martinez clearly not comfortable with the options he has down that side of the pitch.

I think Croatia will look to target this side of the pitch; it’s much weaker than the opposite flank where Portugal have Nuno Mendes operating, so it’s the glaring weak spot in this Portuguese side. Cancelo is very effective going forward but can be clumsy with his challenges; he averaged 1.57 fouls committed per 90 across his four starts for Portugal during qualifying.

Cristiano Ronaldo is going to be more determined than ever to win this World Cup. It’s the only trophy missing from his illustrious career, and he probably won’t get another chance given that he’ll be nearly 45 by the time the next World Cup rolls around.

Ronaldo’s shot volume is really high. He’s taken 13 shots across his three starts at the World Cup so far (4.33 per 90), seeing six of those efforts find the target (2.00 per 90). He was just as trigger-happy during Portugal’s qualifying game with 31 shots across just five starts (7.44 per 90), seeing 12 of those attempts find the target (2.88 per 90).

It’s clear that Roberto Martinez is going to stick with Ronaldo throughout the tournament regardless of his form or how he impacts the rest of the side, so Portugal don’t really have any option other than to play to the strengths of the 41-year-old who has 145 international goals to his name across 231 caps. 

Lamine Yamal has had to watch the likes of Mbappe, Haaland, and Messi light up this World Cup with a touch of frustration, as the winger still isn’t quite fully fit, but will be determined to make his mark at this World Cup with Spain looking to have a decent route through to the final stages.

Yamal has scored once from eight shots at the World Cup so far (5.14 per 90). This shot volume may look inflated, but he averaged 4.64 shots per 90 across his 26 starts for Barcelona in LaLiga during the 25/26 campaign and has generally focused more on being a threat in front of goal this term - which is reflected by his tally of 24 goals across all competitions, his best ever return. 

He had 11 shots across just two starts in qualifying for Spain (6.51 per 90), seeing four of these efforts find the target (2.37 per 90). He may not quite be at 100% fitness, but he’s clearly a player who can provide for Spain at this level, and I back him to find the target at least twice.

Pedri is such an impressive player and was fouled three times inside just 60 minutes in Spain’s narrow win over Uruguay last time out. It’s the first time he’s won fouls at the tournament, with both Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia being very passive against Spain, which is to be expected given the obvious gap in quality between the nations.

Austria will fancy themselves a bit more and engage with Spain a bit higher up the pitch. Pedri is a natural target for fouls due to how much influence he has on the game. He usually sits around 85-100 touches per 90 for club and country, so if you want to stop Spain, the first port of call is often to harass and nullify Pedri. 

He won 24 fouls across just nine starts during the 25/26 Champions League campaign (3.11 per 90) and can be targeted here by an aggressive Austria side, who are averaging just shy of 11.0 fouls per game and committed 13 fouls in their 2-0 defeat to Argentina, which is probably the most comparable fixture to this one from their group stage assignments. 

I’ve already touched on how aggressive Laimer can be, and I expect him to be in with a chance of picking up a caution.  Card betting has been frustrating at the World Cup so far, with more examples yesterday of referees being far too lenient with obvious yellow card challenges.

That being said, Laimer has a strong individual record when it comes to collecting cautions. He picked up a yellow card in Austria’s loss to Argentina, and received a red card in a friendly just before the tournament started. 

He picked up one yellow card across his eight starts in qualifying for Austria, with an average of 2.27 fouls committed per 90. Laimer also collected four yellow cards across his 10 starts in the Champions League during the 25/26 campaign, showing his tendency to pick up cautions in high-profile situations.

Marc Cucurella is usually fired up for these sort of games. He’s been a bit conservative so far, but having watched him regularly for Chelsea last season, these are the type of games where you see the fullback be very aggressive and almost ratty with his challenges.

Cucurella is very good in 1v1 duels; he’s excellent at locking down a direct opponent, but I’ve found he struggles a bit more when he doesn’t have this clear assignment. He won’t have a danger man to keep an eye on here with Austria being quite fluid in forward areas, so I could see situations where Cucurella is out of position and has to make tactical challenges.

He picked up eight yellow cards and one red card for Chelsea in the Premier League during the 25/26 campaign, showing a pretty decent consistency when it comes to collecting cards, and I think Austria’s main success here could come through attacking the wide areas. 

Austria’s games generally tend to be quite open and entertaining, with their energetic style of play that revolves around pressing high. They’ve seen 3+ goals in two of their three games at the World Cup so far, with their most recent game ending 3-3.

Austria saw 26 goals across their eight qualifying matches (3.25 per game), and I think they have enough quality to get on the scoresheet in this clash with Spain’s backline really yet to be properly tested, having faced off against Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, and a lacklustre Uruguay side.

Spain have had to battle through some tight games so far, but they are capable of competing in a high-scoring environment too. Five of their six qualifying games saw 3+ goals, and with Yamal continuing to build to full fitness, you would expect Spain to continue to improve in the final third.

This is a real favourite of mine in matches where there is a clear favourite.

Spain are yet to concede at the World Cup, and while Unai Simon hasn’t been the busiest keeper so far, I expect him to be tested here more regularly than he has been in Spain’s games at the World Cup so far.

Unai Simon has been forced into making exactly one save in all three of his games at the World Cup and also maintained an average of 1.67 saves per 90 across his six starts during qualifying - keeping five clean sheets across these matches. 

Austria have forced a save from the opposition keeper in two of their three games so far, except for their 3-3 draw with Algeria last time out in which they were clinical and scored with all three efforts on target. 

Mikel Oyarzabal is the perfect striker for this Spain side, offering Luis de la Fuente the ideal balance between his two wide players with how he can drop a bit deeper at times and link up with Spain’s talented midfield trio.

His movement causes real problems, but he’s still a threat in the final third himself as well as being an asset to the team. Oyarzabal has scored two goals at the World Cup so far, both coming against Saudi Arabia, from 11 shots overall (4.69 per 90). He’s seen four of these efforts find the target (1.71 per 90) and scored six goals across six starts in qualifying for Spain.

Oyarzabal averaged 2.42 shots on target per 90 during the qualifying campaign and has scored 27 goals across his 56 caps for Spain, which is a pretty solid international record. He also scored 15 goals for Real Sociedad during the 25/26 campaign from an average of 1.19 shots on target per 90. 

Sabitzer tends to play quite high up for his national side, which makes him a shot threat. 

This is reflected in his shot numbers so far; he’s taken five efforts across his three starts (1.67 per 90), with four of these efforts notably coming from outside the box. He’s on free kicks for Austria and managed a shot on target from this situation in Austria’s defeat to Argentina during the group stage. 

He scored three goals across eight starts for Austria during qualifying from 24 shots (3.08 per 90). He also impressed for Austria at the most recent European Championships, taking 12 shots across his four starts (3.00 per 90). 

Konrad Laimer is a really aggressive player, though he’s also quite versatile, and I could see him filling in quite a few different roles for Austria here over the course of the 90 minutes.

Laimer can play as a fullback, midfielder, or even in the final third with his diverse skillset, but one area of his game that tends to stay consistent is his foul count. He’s committed four fouls across his three starts at the World Cup so far (1.33 per 90), and averaged 2.27 fouls committed per 90 during qualifying.

His numbers in the Champions League from the most recent campaign are also promising. He committed 20 fouls across his 10 starts in the competition (2.11 per 90), mainly operating as a fullback.

I can see Laimer being tasked with dealing with Lamine Yamal at times in this game, who averaged 2.06 fouls won per 90 during the most recent campaign and usually requires the attention of at least two players to stop him.