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Scotland had to battle hard for their 1-0 win over Haiti last time out and that struggle was reflected in their foul and card numbers. 

Steve Clarke’s side committed 21 fouls and picked up three yellow cards in that opening encounter and I think we’ll see similar aggression levels from them here.

The referee for this game is Ilgiz Tantashev who officiated two games at the Club World Cup last summer and didn’t hold back with his cautions, producing 10 yellow cards across these matches (5.00 per game), with all four sides picking up at least two cards. 

He’s also quite quick to blow his whistle, averaging 29.50 fouls per game across these two matches. He’s quite an inexperienced referee at this level and could easily let this game get away from him when the challenges do start flying in.

Morocco drew 16 fouls from Brazil in their opening game of the World Cup, also drawing two cards from Carlo Ancelotti’s side. The controversial AFCON champions drew 2.63 cards per game from their opponents during qualifying which lines up quite well with the 2.0 cards per game Scotland collected during their qualifying campaign. 

Scotland also committed at least 10 fouls in all six of their qualifying matches, they’re priced at 1.73 to commit at least 15 fouls here - so Scotland are expected to be just as aggressive as they were in their opening match, which should lead to Steve Clarke’s side collecting at least two cautions. 

Look for Folarin Balogun to have three or more shots against Australia on Friday night. The USA forward arrived at the tournament in strong goalscoring form for both club and country, and he has carried that into the World Cup by bagging a brace against Paraguay. Notably, he registered five attempts in that game.

Looking further back across his 10 appearances for the co-hosts in the build-up to the World Cup, Balogun registered two or more attempts in seven of those outings.

He was also a serial shooter for Monaco in Ligue 1 last season, averaging 3.09 attempts per game, with his Champions League average close behind at 2.99. 

Australia lined up in a back five against Turkey and are likely to do the same here, which should invite sustained pressure and leave Balogun well placed to register at least three attempts.

I’m also backing Folarin Balogun to be fouled at least twice.

The USA striker is likely to attract extra attention here after his display against Paraguay last week. Not only did Balogun score two goals in that game, but he was also fouled on four occasions.

That ability to draw fouls was also evident in the USA’s final warm-up game against Germany, when Balogun was brought down two times. Looking further back, he was fouled a total of four times across his three appearances at the Copa America a couple of summers ago.

His domestic numbers last season further support the angle, as Balogun was drawing an average of 1.49 fouls per game in Ligue 1, rising to 1.99 in the Champions League.

He is likely to come into regular contact with all three of Australia’s centre-backs, two of whom committed fouls against Turkey.

Back the USA’s clash with Australia to produce at least two goals.

The USA began their World Cup campaign in emphatic fashion with a 4-1 win over Paraguay. Prior to that, their matches had been consistently generating goals, with 14 straight games featuring over 1.5 goals, while six of their final seven warm-up fixtures overcame the over 2.5 hurdle. 

While Australia may look to keep things tight and perhaps play for a draw, which could be enough to secure qualification, five of their last eight matches have featured over 1.5 goals.

Notably, one of those games was a friendly against the USA late last year, which the Stars and Stripes edged 2-1.

Mohamed Toure looks a strong contender to commit at least one foul in this contest. The Australian forward could be facing a difficult assignment leading the line against a USA side expected to dominate possession.

As a result, Toure may find himself pulled into wider areas and forced into defensive situations where he risks conceding cheap free kicks. He was guilty of two offences against Turkey last time out and had previously been penalised in five of his six appearances for the Socceroos.

Toure also showed during his time with Norwich last season that he can be prone to overstepping the mark, committing a combined total of four fouls across his final four appearances of the campaign.

He is likely to come up against USA defender Chris Richards, who was fouled once against Paraguay last Friday.

Tyler Adams is a player I regularly target to commit two or more fouls. The USA midfielder carries a real combative edge that was evident against Paraguay on matchday one, when he was reprimanded on multiple occasions and picked up a yellow card for his troubles.

The 27-year-old also committed 2+ fouls in each of the USA’s final two World Cup warm-up matches against Germany and Senegal, while the same was also true in friendly fixtures against Japan and South Korea last year.

Adams is also a familiar figure to Premier League referees, as he averaged 1.82 fouls per game last season, committing two fouls in each of his final three appearances of the campaign.

The case is further strengthened by the likelihood of a direct midfield battle with Aidan O'Neill, who has been fouled a combined total of six times across his last three starts for Australia.

Canada raced to nine corners in the first half of their opening match against Bosnia and are likely to win another high count in this regard against a Qatar side they will expect to dominate. Jesse Marsch’s side want to impose themselves on their opponents in every game and they do this by attacking down the flanks. It has consistently won them a huge corner count in recent games. Across the six matches they have played this year, they have never dipped below seven corners, while they have topped out at 12 on two occasions and average 9.5 per game in that sample.

Qatar are a side that habitually pick up multiple bookings per match, as shown against Switzerland in their first game as they picked up a couple. That continued a remarkable streak in which the Gulf nation have earned 2+ cards in 14 of their last 16 competitive matches.

They landed this bet in both their fourth round qualifiers and in eight of their 10 third-round games. The only fixtures that they did not were the blowout defeat (4-1) against Iran and the easy win (5-1) over North Korea. With Canada of the mindset that they will take the game to their opponents, and are likely to have direct runners in possession, the referee will be presented with plenty of opportunities to show his cards. Referee Cristian Garay averages 4.86 cards per game this season.

The Canadian right back mustered one shot against Bosnia in the opening match and stands a strong chance of replicating that feat in this game. Johnston will face a scenario familiar to him at club level with Celtic, where he often faces low defensive blocks.

In Scotland this season, he had at least one shot in four of his six starts for the Glasgow side, in which he completed 35 or more minutes, including three of his last four games. He will be encouraged to attack, too, with both full backs getting forward an aspect of Marsch’s attacking philosophy. During the previous World Cup, he had a shot in two of Canada’s three matches. There is a slim chance that the ultra-attack-minded Alphonso Davies is fit enough to replace him and get a few late minutes.

The Celtic right back is the type of player who is ever involved in the thick of the action, and that means putting up a high foul count. He has made at least one foul in each of his last six competitive international starts, including a couple against Bosnia-Herzegovina in the opening match of the tournament.

His likely head-to-head opponent is Akram Afif, who has won 1+ fouls in 36 of the 38 competitive international matches where fouls data is available, including winning two fouls in each of his last three games.

Scotland’s attack may not be considered a strong point, but when it comes to competitive matches, they have been capable of finding the net in recent times.

They have scored in their last six competitive games, while they have also netted nine times in their last three. Although they did not play well against Haiti, a small number of high-quality opportunities were created.

Even in the Nations League against Poland, Portugal, and Croatia, they were able to score in five of their six fixtures, showing they are more than capable offensively against even strong opponents.

Morocco, meanwhile, have been prolific, scoring in 29 of their last 31 recognised internationals.

Against a Scotland team that is liable to sit deep, Hakimi will have a licence to get forward, which is something he is not shy about at the best of times.

Against Brazil, he had a joint-team-high three shots, which underlines the attacking threat that he brings to a game. It was the 3rd time in his last four competitive fixtures for club and country that he had managed exactly three shots.

With Scotland’s threat on the counter liable to come down the opposite flank via Ben Gannon-Doak, the PSG right-back should get forward regularly and will have a big impact offensively for his country.

This is the type of game in which Scotland will particularly look to Scott McTominay for inspiration. He has been their big-game player in recent months, notably scoring the opening goal against Denmark in their decisive World Cup qualifier.

Other important contributions include a Euro 2024 goal against Switzerland and a strike against Spain. The Haiti game broke a run of six successive internationals in which he had a shot on target. However, Paddy Power would have paid this out as he hit the woodwork, but a return to the 4-2-3-1 system that Scotland generally play should suit his box-crashing nature more.

He also poses a threat from set pieces, should Scotland want to play consistent aerial balls in.

El Aynaoui is a high price for a player with a strong recent shooting record for his international side. For instance, he managed three shots against Brazil in the opening game, and while he failed to hit the target, this high volume of efforts maximises his chances of doing so in the future.

With 66.7% shooting accuracy in Serie A this season and 49.3% in league play over the course of his career, the chances are he will test the goalkeeper if he is given another three efforts. El Aynaoui should also be high in confidence for the national team after scoring goals against both Ecuador and Paraguay in March friendly matches.

If Scotland are sitting deep and frustrating Morocco, he is the type of player who will try his luck.

Morocco look an excellent price to win this game based on their recent form. They are, after all, a side that have lost only two full senior international matches in 90 minutes since the 2022 World Cup.

They might have drawn each of their last two games, but in reaching the AFCON final, they showed they are a tournament-hardened side. Moreover, there is a huge motivation for them to win in this game: anything short of three points will leave their tournament on the line against Haiti.

Scotland might have won their last three, but those wins came against weak opponents. Prior to that, they had lost three out of four, including a 1-0 loss to Ivory Coast in friendly action in a kinder climate.

Cards are no rarity when Scotland play, with 83% of their qualifying matches bringing 3+ cards. That trend continued against Haiti, when four cards were shown in a game riddled with niggling fouls.

Scotland are a side that tends to have a high foul count but also win a good deal of free kicks themselves. While their qualifiers averaged 27.2 fouls, never dipping below 22, their opening finals game hit a staggering 43.

Morocco, meanwhile, will impose themselves with a strong press and intense style that forces players into quick decisions, illustrated by Brazil picking up two yellow cards against them. Scotland will similarly suffer but can impose their own physicality on the game to test Morocco's discipline.

Referee Ilgiz Tantashev averages 3.95 cards per game this season.

Scotland will look to break this game up at every opportunity they get, with tactical fouls the order of the day against a high-paced Morocco side in a climate that the Europeans are simply not used to playing in.

During the qualifying campaign, Scotland averaged 12.67 fouls committed but hit 15 on each occasion they faced Denmark, the team that finished 2nd in their section.

Morocco, meanwhile, won 16 free kicks against a Brazil side that is considerably more fancied than the Scots. Although they only averaged 9.5 fouls won per match in qualifying, this game is likely to be made far more physical.

One of the most eye-catching aspects of Scotland’s performance against Haiti was the display of Ben Gannon-Doak down their right flank.

He is set to be central to their attacking efforts against Morocco, too, with his directness important for relieving pressure on the defence and creating chances in open play or from set pieces. The Bournemouth man should, therefore, see a good deal of the ball. He goes up against Noussair Mazraoui, who is 1.2 to commit a foul.

The Manchester United man has given up 1+ fouls in six of his last eight internationals. With Mazraoui liable to get an attacking role in this game, he will find himself in some uncomfortable positions.

Only Achraf Hakimi had more foul involvements than the Roma midfielder against Brazil, who was fouled three times and committed four fouls of his own.

This continues a lengthy trend for the 24-year-old central midfielder. He is currently on a four-match competitive run in which he has committed 2+ fouls for his national team. Scotland’s midfield, meanwhile, has been highly adept at winning free kicks.

The trio of John McGinn, McTominay and Lewis Ferguson won 34 between them in qualifying at a rate of 5.87 per 90. Ferguson alone drew six fouls against Haiti and is likely to be El Aynaoui’s direct opponent in this one.

Folarin Balogun can maintain his strong form by registering either a goal or an assist against Australia on Friday night. The USA forward struck twice against Paraguay last time out and comes into this fixture brimming with confidence. That brace means he now has 11 goals in 28 international appearances, alongside four assists.

The confidence and swagger he is playing with right now can be attributed to his impressive output for Monaco last season, where he netted 19 goals and provided five assists across 43 appearances in all competitions.

With the USA expected to dominate possession and dictate the tempo, Balogun should have ample opportunity to add to his two goals from last week, or turn provider.

Over 2.5 goals looks too big to ignore given how frequently it has landed in the USA’s matches of late. In fact, seven of the Stars and Stripes’ last eight fixtures have produced at least three goals, including last week’s 4-1 thrashing of Paraguay.

Prior to that, in friendly fixtures, the USA defeated Senegal 3-2, lost 5-2 to Belgium and thumped Uruguay 5-1, just to name a few. It should also be noted that one of those matches in that eight-game sequence was a 2-1 win over Australia.

What that run underlines is that Mauricio Pochettino’s side carry plenty of attacking threat, but remain far from watertight at the back.

As a result, the USA could cover the over 2.5 goal line on their own here, though Australia are more than capable of contributing themselves, as they demonstrated when striking twice against Turkey.

Given how I expect this game to play out tactically, over 5.5 corners looks well within range for the USA. Australia are likely to sit in a low block and invite pressure from the co-hosts, which should naturally lead to a healthy corner count.

Moreover, Mauricio Pochettino’s side have been producing some eye-catching corner numbers in recent times, forcing 10 in their final pre-World Cup friendly against Germany. Prior to that, the Stars and Stripes registered 6+ flag kicks against the likes of Belgium and Uruguay in friendlies.

There is further encouragement in the fact that Australia conceded eight corners in their World Cup opener against Turkey, while they shipped seven against Switzerland in their final warm-up match before the tournament.

Back Chris Richards to be fouled at least once on Friday night. Richards is the more natural ball carrier of the two USA centre-halves and should be afforded the opportunity to step into midfield. The Crystal Palace man was fouled once during the USA’s opening game of the World Cup against Paraguay, and that was also the case in two of his final five Premier League appearances last season.

What makes this selection even more appealing is that Richards is likely to be pressed and harried by Australia’s Mohamed Toure, who committed two fouls against Turkey. On top of that, the Socceroos forward had also overstepped the mark in five of his six international outings prior to that, making Richards a strong candidate to be fouled at an attractive price.

Look for Mexico’s clash with South Korea to feature over 1.5 goals. There have already been a series of 1-1 draws at this year's World Cup, and it would not be a surprise to see another here.

Moreover, eight of Mexico’s 13 friendly matches in the build-up to the tournament featured at least two goals, including three of their final four fixtures. That trend continued into their curtain-raiser against South Africa last Thursday, which ended in a 2-0 win. 

As for South Korea, they come into this clash off the back of a 2-1 win over Czechia. Prior to that, seven of the Taegeuk Warriors’ 10 matches produced over 1.5 goals, further strengthening the case for a repeat against Mexico on Friday.

Back Son Heung-min to attempt at least two shots. The South Korean superstar remains his country’s biggest attacking threat and doesn’t need much encouragement to go for goal.

That was clear to see against Czechia last week, when he fired in a total of six efforts. It was a similar story during World Cup qualification, with the former Tottenham man averaging 3.22 shots per 90. Notably, the 33-year-old also registered multiple efforts in three of the Taegeuk Warriors’ four friendly fixtures ahead of the tournament.

Son also takes responsibility for penalties and free kicks, which only adds to the appeal of this selection.

Julian Quinones looks well placed to hit the target at least once against South Korea. The Mexican forward was arguably his team’s standout performer against South Africa, scoring with one of his five attempts on goal. A closer look shows that one of those other five efforts also forced a save from the South African goalkeeper.

Quinones also registered an on-target effort in El Tri’s final friendly fixture ahead of the tournament against Serbia, while he hit the target two times against Belgium earlier this year.

It should also be noted that he arrived at the World Cup off the back of a stunning season in the Saudi Pro League for Al-Qadsiah, scoring 37 goals and averaging 1.94 shots on target per game.

Raul Jimenez is another player to back to hit the target against South Korea on Friday. The veteran Mexico forward made the net bulge with one of his two shots against South Africa in last week’s World Cup opener.

A deeper look shows that 11 of Jimenez’s 46 goals for Mexico have come since the start of 2025, underlining just how consistently he has been hitting the target at international level. He also tested opposition goalkeepers regularly in the Premier League last season, averaging 0.78 on-target efforts per game for Fulham.

Like the aforementioned Son Heung-min, Jimenez also tends to be on spot-kick duty, which only adds weight to this angle.

Lee Kang-In looks the standout candidate to be fouled at least twice during this contest. The South Korean ace was targeted heavily against Czechia last week, being brought down on four occasions. That was also a recurring theme throughout friendly fixtures in the lead-up to the World Cup, where he drew an average of 3.03 fouls per game across three appearances. 

Despite not being a regular starter in Ligue 1 for PSG last season, he still managed to force an average 1.12 fouls won per 90. 

Lee Kang-In is likely to be closely watched by combative Mexico midfielder Brian Gutierrez, who committed two fouls against South Africa and picked up a yellow card.