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This is a really nice price, I’d consider taking it as a single given Yamal’s record at the tournament so far and how influential he is to this Spanish side. 

Yamal was desperate to score against Austria last time out, taking six shots with four of them finding the target - a shot accuracy of 67%. 

He definitely should have scored with at least one of these efforts, but the volume of shots is a good sign when backing him for 2+ shots on target here.

Yamal had more touches in the opposition box than any other player during that comfortable win over Austria (14). 

He’s taken 14 shots overall at the World Cup (5.60 per 90) which may seem inflated, but Yamal has been shooting more often over the last year, averaging 4.64 shots per 90 for Barcelona in LaLiga during the most recent campaign.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia last time out and will be eager to strike again here as he eyes up the one trophy that has eluded him in his career to date.

Ronaldo has always had a pretty high shot volume, even more so since moving to a central striker role. 

He’s taken 15 shots across his four starts (3.85 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.79 per 90).

This record has resulted in three goals for Ronaldo at the World Cup, which is remarkably one of his best scoring records in the competition. 

He scored five goals across five starts for Portugal during qualifying, averaging 7.44 shots per 90 and 2.88 shots on target per 90.

I was pretty disappointed with Austria last time out, I thought they would have challenged Spain a lot more than they did. 

Ralf Rangnick’s side looked leggy and a bit unorganised with their press, which isn’t like them - but maybe the conditions played a part in their performance.

That underwhelming performance for Austria means that this is Spain’s first real test at the World Cup and, as good as they’ve looked at the back, I think Portugal can cause them problems in transition. 

Uruguay and Austria both failed to really make the most of those situations, but Portugal have more quality in forward areas to punish Spain.

Portugal have a recent edge over Luis de la Fuente’s side too, they beat them on penalties to win the Nations League last year after a 2-2 draw. 

Meetings between these nations tend to be entertaining, they contested a 3-3 draw during the 2018 World Cup which was particularly notable for a hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo.

Marc Cucurella relishes a 1v1 duel and he’ll have a familiar opponent here in Pedro Neto who I can see exploiting the space that Cucurella leaves in behind at times when he pushes up into the advanced left half space.

Cucurella is exceptional at this role, his positioning is better than the majority of fullbacks who attempt to play in this way and he can give credit to Enzo Maresca who matured him in this role during his time at Chelsea.

This assignment does however leave Cucurella a bit exposed at times when Spain lose possession, often resulting in the Real Madrid man having to make niggling or tactical fouls to stop sides breaking away quickly. 

He’s committed five fouls across his four starts at the World Cup so far (1.25 per 90) and his direct opponent in Pedro Neto is averaging 1.00 fouls won per 90 at the World Cup and will be aware of Cucurella’s clever movement more than most having played with him at Chelsea.

I think Bruno Fernandes is going to be crucial to any chance Portugal have of coming through this tie.

Spain’s more challenging opponents so far have had some promising situations develop in transition but have failed to pick the right pass to unlock this Spain backline - who do play very high and leave space in behind.

Portugal have the runners required to get beyond this high line, including the likes of Neto, Leao and Mendes who will all make those positive runs and Bruno Fernandes can pick them out.

Fernandes has registered one assist at the World Cup so far, with that coming against Uzbekistan where he did exactly what we need him to do here in picking the right pass on a counter attack.

Fernandes is averaging 2.16 shots per 90 and 1.08 chances created per 90 at the World Cup, which are decent underlying numbers and his role on set pieces as well as ability to pick the right pass at the right time make him a player to watch in this exciting looking clash.

Continuing the theme of Portugal being a threat in transition, the wide areas will be crucial for Spain to manage and I can see both Porro and Cucurella struggling at times with their direct opponents.

Like Cucurella, Porro pushes very high up the pitch and leaves a lot of space in behind. That space will be filled by Rafael Leao in this encounter who is a very dangerous player and can force Porro into committing a few tactical fouls.

Leao was a constant threat against Croatia last time out, setting up the winning goal with a brilliant cross to Ramos. Looking at his heat map, he pretty much hugged the touchline which makes him a real direct threat to Porro.

Leao won 34 fouls across his 23 starts for Milan during the most recent campaign (1.65 per 90) and will be well aware of how often Porro pushes on into forward areas.

Rafael Leao has always been a bit of a nearly player.

He’s always discussed in passing when people talk about the most talented wingers in Europe, but there is also a consensus that he should be producing a bit more consistently for the talent he has.

He’s already registered two goal contributions at the World Cup, including setting up Portugal’s winner against Croatia in the closing stages last time out. 

I see him being a really useful outlet for Portugal here, he should have plenty of space with Yamal and Porro down his side who both stay quite high. 

Leao has taken four shots across his 136 minutes of action at the World Cup (2.65 per 90) and maintained a similar average during the most recent Serie A campaign (3.05 per 90).

These two met last year in the Nations League final, and it was Portugal who prevailed on penalties.

It was an incredibly entertaining contest which finished 2-2 in regular time, before Ruben Neves fired in the winning penalty after Alvaro Morata missed. Once again, both sides look incredibly strong going forward, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an identical scoreline.

Mikel Oyarzabal was a standout performer in that match, as he scored the third goal of the game. The 29-year-old comes into this World Cup knockout tie in excellent form, having just scored a brace against Austria in the previous round.

He also scored twice against Saudi Arabia in the group stages, making him the top scorer for Spain at the moment. After scoring 18 goals in 40 appearances across all competitions for Real Sociedad, Oyarzabal has carried that impressive form into his national side.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia last time out and will be eager to strike again here as he eyes up the one trophy that has eluded him in his career to date.

Ronaldo has always had a pretty high shot volume, even more so since moving to a central striker role. 

He’s taken 15 shots across his four starts (3.85 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.79 per 90).

This record has resulted in three goals for Ronaldo at the World Cup, which is remarkably one of his best scoring records in the competition. 

He scored five goals across five starts for Portugal during qualifying, averaging 7.44 shots per 90 and 2.88 shots on target per 90.

What a price this is, the same bet is as low as 1.47 with other leading bookmakers so we're getting a great price @ 2.25.

Yamal took the joint most shots of any player against Austria last time out, seeing four of these shots find the target.

He had four shots when these sides met in the Nations League final last year, seeing two of these attempts find the target.

That final produced four goals and the last World Cup meeting between these nations produced six goals as they drew 3-3 in 2018.

Both sides saw 3+ goals in their Round of 32 ties and will be prepared for a high scoring game here.

This is a really nice boost, Ronaldo and Oyarzabal both lead the line for their country and have scored at least three goals each at the World Cup.

Ronaldo has found the target seven times across his four matches (1.79 per 90) while Oyarzabal has managed five shots on target across his four starts (1.50 per 90).

The last time these sides met at a World Cup, the clash produced six goals with the game ending 3-3. They also drew 2-2 in the Nations League final last year before Portugal progressed on penalties, so we can expect an entertaining tussle here with chances at both ends.

Belgium have been creating chances at the World Cup without really convincing in their performances overall.

They’re averaging 6.30 shots on target per game and have drawn at least two saves from the opposing keeper in all four of their matches.

Matt Fresse hasn’t really been tested so far, but he’s going to have to have a solid game here for the USA to have a good chance.

He’s got that sort of performance in him, having averaged 3.33 saves per game across 15 starts for New York City in the most recent campaign.

The USA have been one of the surprises of the tournament so far for me. The mood around them before the World Cup wasn’t that positive, but Pochettino has done what he is known for and brought the group together.

He’s also implemented his style of play onto the side, which means that the USA play with plenty of energy, but are liable to end-to-end games, as Pochettino’s philosophy has never prioritised keeping the ball.

All four of their games have seen at least two goals, with two of them producing five goals.

The two games they came with just one goal under this line were against sides that set up to sit deep, which won’t be Belgium’s approach here.

These sides actually faced off earlier this year in a friendly that produced seven goals, with Belgium coming away 5-2 winners. That match produced 33 shots, with each team having three big chances.

Belgium have only kept one clean sheet from their four matches at the World Cup, with their last two games seeing at least three goals.

The USA are averaging 5.75 corners per game at the World Cup and have won 4+ corners in three of their four matches.

I’ve not been convinced by Belgium so far. I don’t think they’ll have the composure to control this game against an energetic USA side, which will lead to Pochettino’s team creating chances and winning corners.

Belgium are conceding 4.00 corners per game and look pretty weak in the fullback areas.

I think they will struggle in those duels, and the USA can benefit with corners being an effective avenue so far - three of their 10 goals at the World Cup have come from set pieces.

Tielemans was the standout performer for Belgium last time out as they came from behind to win 3-2 against Senegal after extra time.

Tielemans scored the equaliser to take the game to extra time, and also converted the penalty in the 120th minute to set up this tie.

Tielemans was fouled twice during the game, including winning the penalty that he later converted.

He’s won nine fouls in total at the World Cup (2.10 per 90) and consistently won fouls for Aston Villa in the Premier League last season (1.98 per 90).

Tielemans will be up against an intense USA side who will press under Pochettino’s instructions, with McKennie, Adams, and Tillman combining to commit 3.2 fouls per 90 at the World Cup.

Belgium are an inconsistent side but they have not lost so far, and have actually avoided defeat across their last 17 matches.

Belgium played the USA in a friendly earlier this year and came away 5-2 winners.

They did face a rotated side, but the likes of McKennie, Balogun, and Tillman all featured, and the USA tend to play in quite an expansive way, which is something that will suit a side with the individual quality that Belgium have.

Belgium going 2-0 down to Senegal is an example of where Belgium are still quite far away from being a challenger for the trophy, but their comeback shows that they do have experience of navigating knockout football under this pressure, which is not an advantage that the USA have.

Seeing Cape Verde score twice against the defending champions will give Egypt hope that they can find success in the final third here.

The African side have found the back of the net in all four of their World Cup matches so far, including against Belgium in round one of the group stages.

However, their main challenge will be keeping Argentina at bay. Cape Verde had an impressive defensive record, having kept clean sheets against Spain and Saudi Arabia in the group stages, but Egypt haven’t been as resolute, having conceded in all four matches.

Argentina have bagged 11 goals in their three World Cup matches so far alone, and goals are a target whenever Lionel Messi is involved.

Egypt are much stronger than Cape Verde on paper, and they will hope to replicate that blueprint which caused Argentina problems in the previous round.

With that being said, Lionel Scaloni’s side were still dominant, and they had 22 shots across the 120 minute match, with ten of those hitting the target. In the end, a heroic display from Vozinha kept Cape Verde in the game, and he finished with eight saves.

If Argentina are even slightly more clinical in the final third, they should have no issues in making it to the quarter-finals. There is a significant gulf in quality between these two sides, and Egypt lack experience at this stage of the tournament.

The 39-year-old wasn’t quite at his clinical best against Cape Verde, as he accounted for nine of Argentina’s 22 shots, but he was unfortunate in the sense that Vozinha saved five of his efforts.

Still, Messi did find the back of the net, meaning he has landed this selection in all four World Cup appearances in 2026.

The Inter Miami man scored a hat-trick against Algeria in round one, before following that up with a brace against Austria.

His tally of seven goals is the joint-most in the competition, but Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland have both played an extra game. That should be more than enough motivation for Messi heaving into this clash.

Martinez should find duels against Yasser Ibrahim here, who is the centre back for Egypt. The 33-year-old was fouled once against Australia last time out, meaning this selection has landed in three out of four World Cup appearances for him so far.

In fact, he has been adept at drawing contact for Egypt in recent starts, landing this selection in ten of his last 14 appearances for his national team.

There should be plenty of pressure for Ibrahim to absorb here against Argentina, especially considering he will come up against a player like Lautaro Martinez. Ibrahim can often go down easily to buy soft free-kicks, which bodes well for his selection.

Lautaro Martinez has started all four World Cup matches for Argentina so far, and he has landed this selection in three of those. In fact, his tally of seven fouls is more than any other Argentina player in the competition.

The Inter Milan striker presses intensely from the front, and is always looking to put his opponents under pressure. He also had an average of 1.87 fouls per 90 for Inter Milan during the 25/26 campaign, which highlights his impressive work rate.

Egypt have drawn at least 12 infringements in all four matches so far, which makes this look like a decent matchup to target Lautaro Martinez.

Mostafa Ziko has been one of Egypt's most consistent performers at this World Cup, operating in the forward line. Like Lautaro Martinez, Ziko doesn’t give his opponents even a yard of space, constantly looking to put pressure on them to force an error.

Because of that, he has landed this selection in each of his last three starts for Egypt, with exactly two fouls against Australia, Iran and New Zealand. Ziko has also recorded four tackles in that period, which highlights that commendable work-rate. He should have more defensive work to do than ever against Argentina here, who are likely to control proceedings and dominate possession.

After picking up two yellow cards in the group stages, Mohanad Lasheen was forced to sit out against Australia due to suspension, but he should return to midfield here against Argentina. Lasheen committed exactly one foul against both Iran and New Zealand, but that was enough to earn him a yellow.

A majority of his infringements tend to be quite cynical, meaning he is no stranger to the referee’s notebook.

In addition to his four fouls in the tournament so far, Lasheen has also racked up 13 tackles, averaging 4.33 per 90. He is incredibly combative in the heart of midfield, and this matchup against Argentina promises to be one of the toughest of his career - he will find duels against Messi.

In addition to his strong challenges, Lasheen has also been adept at drawing contact, and he was fouled twice against Iran in his last start.

The 30-year-old currently plays for Pyramids FC in the Egyptian top flight, where he had an average of 1.62 fouls drawn per 90 in the 25/26 campaign.

Lasheen does tend to buy soft free-kicks, and he will operate in the same zone of the field as Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez.

Those two have combined for nine fouls in their three starts together for Argentina so far. The South American side tend to be quite aggressive in their press as a unit, which means Lasheen could have plenty of pressure to absorb.

Egypt are not short of star names in their attacking lineup, but it was Emam Ashour who stole the show against Australia last time out.

He scored the only goal for Egypt in open play, accounting for five of their 14 shots in the 120 minutes. He looked eager to get on the ball at every available opportunity, and was always looking to find the back of the net. Ashour also scored against Belgium in round one, making him currently the top scorer for Egypt in the competition.

Argentina will be a tough matchup for Egypt here, but they weren’t convincing against Cape Verde last time out, and the Pharaohs will hope that they can cause problems on the counter.

Breel Embolo is performing again on the international stage with two goals and two assists across his four starts at the World Cup.

He’s a really reliable striker at this level having netted 26 goals across his 90 caps overall. Embolo has taken nine shots at the World Cup (2.33 per 90), seeing four of these efforts find the target (1.04 per 90).

His experience at international level will be a big benefit for Switzerland in this clash with Embolo showing this experience against Algeria last time out, scoring from two shots in the contest.

Embolo scored four goals across six starts during qualifying, maintaining an average of 1.66 shots on target per 90.

Luis Diaz is the most dangerous forward in this Colombia side and had the most shots of any player against Ghana last time out (5), seeing two of these efforts find the target.

Diaz has taken 16 shots across his four starts at the tournament overall (4.02 per 90), seeing five of these efforts find the target (1.26 per 90). He was just as active for Colombia during qualifying, netting seven goals across 17 starts from an average of 1.28 shots on target per 90.

Switzerland have only managed to keep one clean sheet at the World Cup so far and have notably conceded at least three shots on target in three of their matches. Colombia have the firepower and quality to hurt Switzerland with Diaz being an obvious threat.

Switzerland have been involved in a few end to end game so far, seeing 2+ goals in all four of their matches and only managing to keep one clean sheet across these games which came against Algeria in the Round of 32.

Colombia saw four goals in their opener against Uzbekistan but have seen more cagey games since, though they should have scored more goals in all three of these matches having registered 20+ shots in all three games and an xG of 0.98 or higher.

Switzerland have seen 2+ goals in 29 of their last 31 matches across all competitions, so they’re clearly a side that can get involved in high scoring affairs and I think this will be another entertaining encounter between two sides who will feel as though they can win this tie.

Colombia are a really complete side and I’m not totally convinced by what I’ve seen from Switzerland so far.

The Swiss look to be struggling with the conditions a bit, they tire towards the end of games which is proven by how late they’ve been conceding goals - all three of the goals they’ve conceded have come in the 76th minute or later.

Colombia don’t really have that issue with many players that are used to these playing conditions. Colombia have avoided defeat across their four matches so far, including holding Portugal to a 0-0 draw in a game they really should have won if you look at the underlying numbers.

I backed this selection in Switzerland’s game against Algeria in the Round of 32 and it sailed in with Xhaka being hauled down on five occasions.

I made the point on that occasion that Xhaka doesn’t actually commit many fouls, he’s only committed one foul across his four starts but does win fouls more consistently with nine fouls won across these matches (2.25 per 90).

Xhaka averaged 1.54 fouls won per 90 across his six starts for Switzerland during qualifying and will be up against an aggressive Colombian midfield, including Gustavo Puerta (2.06 fouls per 90) and Jefferson Lerma (0.82 fouls per 90).

Johan Manzambi is such a good player and is already on the radar of some of Europe’s top clubs following his displays at the World Cup and his successful season with Freiburg last year, pretty much leading the Bundesliga side to the Europa League final.

What’s really impressive about Manzambi is how seamlessly he’s adapted to international football.

He doesn’t seem to be affected by the pressure of representing his country and has been really impactful for the Swiss so far with five goal contributions across just 200 minutes of action at the World Cup (3 goals, 2 assists).

He’s registered a goal contribution in each of his last three games, playing a part in 2+ goals in two of these games.

Granit Xhaka has scored one goal at the World Cup so far, with that goal coming from the penalty spot in Switzerland’s 4-1 win over Bosnia.

Xhaka has taken five shots at the World Cup overall with four of these efforts coming from distance. He’s more willing to step forward into more advanced positions when playing for his country and has always had a speculative attempt in him.

Xhaka scored two goals across six starts during qualifying for Colombia, taking nine shots in these matches (1.54 per 90). He saw five of them find the target (0.86 per 90) and once again saw seven of his nine attempts come from outside of the box.

There’s every chance that Xhaka gets a free kick within shooting range in this one, Colombia are averaging 12.3 fouls per game at the World Cup and committed more fouls than any other side during qualifying (14.1 per game).

Colombia have been shooting for fun at the World Cup, taking 15+ shots in all four of their matches and clearing 20+ shots in three of these games. These shot totals have seen them produce a minimum of 0.98 xG in their matches, registering an xG of 2.04 from 20 shots against Ghana last time out.

Daniel Munoz is a really complete fullback and likes to push on high, which is something that he does regularly for Crystal Palace as a wingback - he scored five goals for the Eagles across all competitions last year with an average of 1.01 shots per 90 in the Premier League.

He’s already scored two goals at the World Cup as a result of his adventurous nature and won’t be afraid to get forward again here. He’s useful as an extra body in the box and usually arrives unmarked due to the excellent timing of his runs into the penalty area.

Rafael Leão started his first World Cup game in the round of 32 against Croatia last time out, and that decision paid dividends.

He sent in the cross that Goncalo Ramos converted in the final few minutes to win the game. Leão did not commit a foul in that match, but he is averaging 1.29 fouls per 90 since Euro 2024. That is a notable increase in his foul numbers for AC Milan, which suggests he is being asked to track back much more for his national side.

Leão featured against Spain in the Nations League final last year and committed two fouls despite playing only 45 minutes. He will be tasked with containing Pedro Porro, who was fouled twice against Austria last time out, and Lamine Yamal, who will operate on the same flank as him.

Timothy Castagne averaged just 0.83 fouls per 90 for Fulham this season, which is nothing to write home about, but he has shown a tendency to rack up fouls when playing against more direct and technical wingers.

He accounted for four of Belgium's 22 fouls against Senegal last time out, and he was fortunate to escape a booking in the end.

Christian Pulisic looks set to be directly up against Castagne for this clash, so it could be a tough game for the full back. Pulisic was fouled four times against Bosnia in the round of 32, and he looked back to his best after being hampered by injuries recently.

The AC Milan winger is averaging 4.34 fouls drawn per 90 at this World Cup, and with Folarin Balogun suspended, Pulisic should see plenty of the ball here, bringing Castagne into the game.

ROGUE DEFENCE (8.7) is a young three-year-old gelding who has just kick-started his career with a promising win over course and distance on his racecourse debut, and considering he had excuses in his latest run, he holds bold claims on his return to Lingfield today.

Staying on well to win over course and distance in April, Rogue Defence won with plenty in hand, and considering he put in a solid effort at Leicester when fifth of 12, another big performance looks likely from him today. Having raced over a further 1m2f last time out, the three-year-old was drawn worst of all in stall 13, and given he raced widest of all in the early stages of the race, he was always going to have to produce something special to compete in the latter stages.

Finishing a very respectable fifth, Rogue Defence is stepping back to what looks to be his preferred 1m trip today and with course experience under his belt, he’s the one to beat.

VIETNORM (6.9) is the one to beat in today’s contest, sporting exceptional form with three wins on the bounce; it’s tough to look anywhere else given his current mood, and further progress is expected on his return to the flat.

Running on powerfully in the latter stages at Ripon in May to land his first win, Vietnorm wasted no time in securing his second win at Beverley, and considering he stayed on well again in the latter, it’s clear he would travel well over a further trip. Making his debut over hurdles last month, the three-year-old stepped up to 2m for the first time in his career and didn’t disappoint.

Scoring by an impressive 8 ½ lengths at Market Rasen, he had plenty more to give if required, which is very promising, and his return to the flat seeking the four-timer is highly anticipated, especially being unexposed over this 1m4f trip.