Bournemouth should have a significant amount of defensive work to do here against an Arsenal side who will expect to dominate proceedings at the Emirates. Iraola's side usually press with intensity regardless of their opponent, as opposed to sitting back and inviting pressure. Because of that, they rank third in the league for total fouls committed, which has translated to the fourth-most yellow cards. 

Bournemouth picked up three cards in the reverse fixture at the Vitality Stadium, while Evanilson and Dango Ouattara were booked when the Cherries last made the trip to the Emirates. 

There were zero cards shown by a lenient Andy Madley in Arsenal’s last Premier League home game against Everton, but the Gunners are still averaging 1.93 cards drawn per game this term in the league. That figure rises marginally to 2.07 when playing at home, where this selection has landed in seven of their last ten.

There is little to split these two sides as we head into matchday 32 of the Premier League season, as Brentford and Everton are both just three points off Liverpool in fifth. 

Everton’s away record has been a significant contributor to their success this season, and they have consistently been able to pick up points on their travels. The Toffees tend to set up in a compact shape to make themselves hard to break down. They have only conceded 16 goals from their 15 away matches in the league, which is the second-best defensive record, only behind league-leaders Arsenal. Because of that, Everton have only lost five of their 15 away matches. 

Meanwhile, Brentford have failed to win any of their last four home matches, and they were held to a 2-2 draw by bottom side Wolves just before the international break. Everton secured a 3-0 win over Chelsea last time out, and they will be confident of taking something from this clash. 

Burnley have little to play for at this stage, with relegation looking inevitable, and their performances have reflected that. The Clarets have failed to win any of their last six matches across all competitions, and have conceded 12 goals in that stretch. 

Meanwhile, Brighton were in a rich vein of form heading into the international break, having beaten Liverpool 2-1 at the Amex. The Seagulls have won four of their last five league matches, putting them tenth in the standings, and they are not completely out of the race for a European finish just yet. Fabian Hurzeler's side will be looking to pick up where they left off.

Burnley were barely able to lay a glove on Brighton when these sides met in the reverse fixture, as it finished 2-0 on the south coast. Brighton racked up 15 shots and two big chances worth 1.45 xG, while the visitors managed just five shots worth 0.3 xG in return. 

Fulham’s card numbers this season make them well worth backing to pick up at least a couple of bookings at Anfield on Saturday evening. Marco Silva’s side sit towards the upper end of the top-flight disciplinary table this term, averaging just over 2 yellow cards per game, with that figure rising to nearly 2.5 when playing away from Craven Cottage.

What’s more, Fulham have received 2 or more cards in 3 of their last 4 Premier League matches, including home games against the likes of relegation-threatened duo Burnley and West Ham.

While Liverpool are enduring a difficult spell, there is no denying they still possess a wealth of attacking talent in midfield and forward areas that are capable of winning fouls. That is reflected in the fact that the Reds are drawing an average of 2.04 cards per game in the Premier League this season, with 3 of the last 4 visiting sides to Anfield in the top-flight picking up at least 2 bookings. 

The case for this selection is further strengthened by the fact that Man City received 3 bookings despite thrashing Liverpool 4-0 in the FA Cup last weekend.

Hoffenheim are bottling it a little bit in their quest to secure a Champions League spot next season. They were well in the race alongside Stuttgart and Leipzig a few weeks ago, but a poor run of form has opened up a three point gap between Hoffenheim and those coveted - making this an important game for the away side.

Hoffenheim covered this line on their own when the sides met earlier in the season, coming away 3-0 winners - though Augsburg did contribute to the contest with an xG of 0.96 from 14 shots. Augsburg have scored in each of their last six home matches, so Hoffenheim can’t really expect to come away with a clean sheet here, they’ve only kept six all season (21%).

Roma started the season really well under Gian Piero Gasperini, who I am a huge fan of, but have fallen away as the season has unfolded with Roma struggling to balance their Europa League duties alongside their league assignments. 

Roma have now exited the Europa League, so can solely focus on Serie A - where they find themselves in a battle for a Champions League spot alongside the likes of Juventus, Como and Gasperini’s former club in Atalanta. Roma have seen 2+ goals in nine of their last 10 matches across all competitions, most recently contesting a seven goal thriller against Inter Milan which they lost 5-2.

They have to see this game as an opportunity to close the gap to Como, who are currently commanding the race for that final Champions League spot. Pisa have conceded 36 goals across their 15 away matches in Serie A this term (2.4 per game) - more than any other side on the road in Serie A this season.

Let us begin with Tristan Crama and his shooting. PP/BF have him as a 3.4 chance for two shots, whereas Bet365 see this as a 8.0 bet. I think the shorter price is closer to the truth, especially if, as expected, Crama plays as a right-back.

Crama has been one of Millwall’s best players this season, and is almost as effective at right-back as he is at centre-back, but now that Caleb Taylor has returned to the first XI, Crama is most likely to be installed at right-back, as he has been in the last three matches.

Those three matches have seen Crama take five shots, hitting this shot line in two of those three games. Extending this back to his previous stint as right-back this season, his shot count in his last 18 starts in that position read: 2,1,2,0,2,1,0,4,1,1,2,0,0,0,2,2,0,1,2. That is a 8/18 (44%) hit rate of getting this line that is given a 12.5% chance of winning by Bet365.

Moving on to Jake Cooper, the 2+ fouls won line is definitely a longer shot. A single foul won would also return an above 10/1 price, but I genuinely think 2+ is possible here.

For starters, Cooper has been fouled twice in four of his last 14 matches for Millwall, albeit not in his last seven, which is probably why the price is as big as it is.

The main reason why I like this spot here though is because of his likely direct opponent, Aune Heggebø. The West Brom striker plays that lone striker role with heavy physicality. He has committed an average of 2.25 fouls per 90 over West Brom's last 30 matches, and his recent run of fouls committed is: 2,4,0,2,3,4. Whilst not all of those will be against one central defender, if he is going to continue at this sort of rate, then he is likely fouling either Cooper or Caleb Taylor in this match.

This is nothing short of a must win game for West Ham who find themselves in the relegation zone, one point away from safety ahead of kick off. West Ham can put a lot of pressure on Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds with all three points - setting up what should be the start of a pivotal weekend at the bottom of the Premier League.

Wolves have conceded first in each of their last two games against Brentford and Liverpool. They've struggled on the road this season, conceding 23 goals across their 15 away matches and notably have failed to win any of these games. West Ham's home record isn't the most convincing either - but they have scored 18 goals across their 15 matches in front of their home fans this term.

Furthermore, West Ham have improved defensively since the addition of Axel Disasi to the backline, whose introduction has led to the Hammers having some solidity at the back for the first time this season. This boost is clearly great value, West Ham are as short as 1.57 to score first elsewhere so it's worthing backing for the value alone.

It hasn’t quite been the most prolific season for Jarrod Bowen, who only has eight Premier League goals to his name, but he has still registered the most shots and shots on target of any player in the West Ham squad.

His importance in the final third only increases further here, with Summerville nursing an injury heading into this clash. Bowen was desperately unfortunate not to find the back of the net against Leeds last time out, as he recorded six shots and hit the post twice. He did still manage to land this selection with one shot on target. 

However, Bowen should find more success on Friday night against a Wolves side who have conceded 54 goals from their 31 league matches this season. Bowen draws an excellent matchup here, and he should be involved regularly in the final third.

Ladislav Krejci was unavailable for the EFL Cup meeting between these sides, but the Czech Republic international did feature in the league clash at Molineux in January, and he committed two fouls as Wolves won 3-2. Krejci is averaging 1.32 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, contributing his fair share of infringements as Wolves top the charts for total fouls committed in the league.

The focus here is on his matchup on the flank against Adama Traore, who will want to cause problems against his former club. The Spaniard was drafted into the starting eleven against Leeds last time out, deputising for the injured Crysencio Summerville, and he looks set to keep his starting spot after chipping in with an assist.

Traore often looks to drive at his marker, and he was fouled twice against Leeds - there is a mismatch on the flank here, and Krejci could be in for a difficult night.

Wolves have struggled to exert any real control over Premier League matches this season, and they have one of the worst disciplinary records in the division.

Brazilian midfield duo Joao Gomes and Andre have both accumulated nine yellow cards in the league this season, while Yerson Mosquera has hit double figures with ten cards. They have been the three main culprits for Wolves this campaign, and they all look set to start this weekend. 

While this selection didn't land in the reverse fixture at Molineux in January, the context here is different. Wolves have seen a significant uptick in cards when playing away, and they have landed this selection in 13 out of 15 league matches on the road overall.

They are playing against a West Ham side still fighting for survival, so they are expected to have their hands full, which could make for a feisty contest.

West Ham have averaged 11.58 corners per game in the Premier League this season, one of the highest figures in the division. It has been a relatively even split, with 5.03 corners for and 6.55 against.

The Hammers tend to play with a lot more attacking intent at the London Stadium, so they are averaging 5.53 corners per game at home. They should have plenty of chances against this leaky Wolves backline, so that figure could increase further this weekend. 

Wolves, meanwhile, are averaging just 3.19 corners per game, the lowest of any side in the league, which shows how their opponents are usually able to dominate proceedings. Wolves have spent most of the time this season camped in their own defensive half, and they have conceded 6.03 corners per game in the league.

Viktor Gyokeres has improved as his debut season at Arsenal has worn on and is the Gunners’ top scorer in all competitions with 17 to his name.

The Swede comes into this match against Bournemouth in top form having scored six goals in his last seven games for club and country.

Gyokeres has hit a shot on target in four matches in a row in all competitions for an Arsenal side who remain top of the Premier League table, nine points clear of Man City.

Only the bottom four teams in the Premier League have leaked more goals in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth, with the Cherries having conceded 4.58 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season.

This number of shots on target conceded per game rises to 5.13 when looking at purely away matches.

The Old Farm derby actually has a lot riding on it on this occasion, it is probably the most important Old Farm since the 2015 Championship play-off semi-finals.

Recent history of the derby suggests that Norwich have had the better of it in recent seasons, until Ipswich got their first derby win since 2009 in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. That match ended 3-1 at Portman Road, so BTTS-Yes landed then, and yet, this was under the management of Liam Manning, which didn’t go well for Norwich generally.

At the moment, under Phillipe Clement, Norwich are flying, They have won 1.88pts per match under Clement, and come into this match having won four of their last six, including an impressive performance and three points at promotion contenders Millwall on Monday. They have scored in 13 of 15 home matches under Clement, averaging 1.8 goals per game and 1.71 xG per game too.

Nine of the 15 home matches of Clement have ended BTTS-Yes as well though, which should give Ipswich some encouragement. The Tractor Boys are, of course, one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the league anyway. They also won last time out, 2-1 at home to Birmingham, and four of their last five matches have been BTTS-Yes, the only one that wasn’t was against Sheffield Wednesday.

Eight of the last 11 East Anglian derbies have ended BTTS-Yes as well, with 1-1 a very popular scoreline within that recent selection as well.

With both teams in good form, and goals a regular occurrence for both, I like the price on both teams getting on the score sheet here.

It is possible that Coventry could seal promotion with a win in this match, depending on results elsewhere, and it seems unlikely for them to slip up here against the worst team in the league.

This is not to underestimate Wednesday though. All season long the Owls have battled hard against the odds and they continued that theme most recently, earning a point against Leicester on Easter Monday. However, the facts are that they have lost their last 11 away matches in a row, and seven of those 11 have seen over 2.5 goals.

Coventry have also been a dominant force at home. They sit top of the home form table with 48 points earned from 20 matches played. They have also scored 43 goals in that time, over two goals per game, and conceded 17, almost one per game. Even more impressively though, their average xG for per home game is up at 2.43, and, actually, the xG against in matches at CBS is higher than goals conceded as well at 1.24.

Seven out of the last eight matches at Coventry have gone over 2.5 goals, with six of those being in Coventry wins.

Sheffield Wednesday may well score here, but that should only help this bet in the long term.

I was close to pulling the trigger on a home win for the bet in this one, but I am a little wary of the Roy Hodgson hoodoo and this new manager bounce that Bristol City seem to be experiencing.

Instead, I am going to lean on what I have seen in QPR’s recent form and data and instead take the BTTS-YES angle here. The last four QPR matches have seen both teams get on the score sheet, 

Looking at QPR at home over a longer period as well, they are averaging 1.71 expected goals per match at home this season, as well as conceding 1.2 xG to their visitors. These are solid numbers for a BTTS-YES bet.

Bristol City created 2.5 xG and scored twice in their last away match at Charlton, and whilst they then got a little fortunate in a home win over Sheffield United when they only had five shots but won, they are enjoying something of a new manager bounce under Roy Hodgson.

They do have a 1.22 xG creation per away match record over the season as a whole, and they concede chances worth over 1.5 goals per game as well away from Ashton Gate.

There is very little on this match, neither team are likely to get into the play-offs or be relegated, so there should be a degree of freedom for the players to play in.

I think that Cardiff are too short for this match.

The Bluebirds have been excellent in League One for the majority of the season, but they are stumbling towards the finish line. They have won only once in their last six matches, so for them to be heavily odds on against a team that would be rated pretty close to them in terms of performance data, seems to be overly tight.

I understand that in their last two draws that Cardiff did dominate chance creation and expected goals against Blackpool and Peterborough, but they were unable to get a winner, and against teams who aren’t of the same quality as Bolton.

Bolton, to be fair, haven’t been racing to the end either. They could’ve been within shouting distance of Cardiff, but often it has been slow starts getting them into trouble. Resilience has been shown though by Bolton to get back into matches, and often late on. Whilst they have also only won one of their last five, they have salvaged draws in three of those matches. Indeed, Bolton have lost only once since the 10th January, one defeat in 16 League One matches.

We should also be mindful of the fact that Bolton beat Cardiff in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. Indeed, Bolton actually have a very good record against their fellow top teams in League One. They lost away at Stockport, but outside of that they have remained unbeaten in 12 other matches against the top ten.

One of the biggest Devonshire derbies in recent years takes place on Saturday lunchtime, with implications at both ends of the League One table. Plymouth are on the charge and making a late challenge for the play-offs with five wins in their last seven matches. Argyle’s home form has been central to their improved form, winning six of nine games as hosts since the turn of the year, and victory will see them move into the top six for the first time this season. 

Exeter’s outlook is much less positive with the Grecians occupying the final relegation spot, despite a much-needed win on Easter Monday that halted a run of 15 games without three points. A change in the dugout, coupled with financial issues off the pitch have sent them spiralling towards League Two, having only won twice on their travels since early October.

A trip to their bitter rivals could well add another nail in their coffin, and see them on their way back to the fourth tier for the first time since 2022.

It wasn't long ago that this match looked as though it could be a relegation six-pointer, but Steve Evans has had the desired effect since his appointment and Bristol Rovers have pulled away from the bottom two and are safe as they approach this match.

However, I don't think that there will be a lack of motivation. There are a lot of players playing for their positions for next season, the club are likely to invest in recruitment this summer, and with Evans ready to embark on his first summer window with the Pirates, he is likely to be making final decisions on some of the current players at this stage.

They are also in great form anyway. Rovers have now won five in a row, all of which against bottom half sides, so they are showing a level of superiority against those lower ranked teams now.

Crawley obviously need the points, but that didn't help them last week as they capitulated at home to Grimsby. They have only three away wins all season, and 13 defeats alongside that.

Rovers’ size of squad seems to be helping them at this stage of the season and I think that their quality will take them to another win here.

It’s been a season of ups and downs for Jim Goodwin’s Dundee United, who will have taken confidence from two positive performances against the Old Firm - beating Celtic 2-0 and coming up just short in a 4-2 loss at Rangers.

United have won their last two games at Tannadice against Celtic and St Mirren, last losing at home against Hearts back in January.

Although Livingston have been stubborn under Marvin Bartley since he took over from David Martindale in February, the Lions’ away record remains dreadful.

Livingston are still yet to win away from home in the league this season and lost convincingly 2-0 to Kilmarnock on their last road trip.

I’m therefore backing Dundee United to win this one with home advantage.

There’s a lot riding on this match for Kilmarnock given they are currently sitting in the Scottish Prem relegation play-off spot in 11th.

Killie’s home form has been strong under Neil McCann, winning four of their five league matches at Rugby Park and averaging 2.4 goals in the process.

I therefore expect them to be on the front foot against eighth-placed Dundee, but they have to be mindful of the threat the visitors can pose going forward.

Dundee have scored in six of their last seven league matches and have the pace in attack to cause Killie problems on the counter.

I’m therefore expecting goals in this one in Ayrshire.

I expect Celtic to ramp up the pressure on their title rivals by securing a home win over St Mirren on Saturday. Martin O’Neill’s men returned to winning ways last Sunday with a hard-fought 2-1 victory away at Dundee. With league leaders Hearts likely to receive a stern test at home to Motherwell, and Rangers facing a potential banana skin away at Falkirk on Sunday, Celtic will know that a win here would really turn up the heat.

Further encouragement comes from the fact that Celtic have won 7 of their 8 Scottish Premiership home matches under O'Neill's watch this season.

While St Mirren have boosted their survival hopes under interim manager Craig McLeish with back-to-back wins over Falkirk and Aberdeen, the Saints have struggled on their top-flight travels this term.
In fact, the Paisley outfit have failed to pick up any points from 10 of their 16 top-flight away matches this season, including their previous visit to Parkhead earlier in the campaign.

Both of the previous meetings between Hearts and Motherwell in the Scottish Premiership this season have ended all square and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same outcome this time around.

Hearts have won their last four league matches at Tynecastle 1-0 and remain unbeaten in the league at home, but they have stumbled somewhat in their title charge of late.

Although Motherwell have themselves stumbled of late and are now without a win in four league games, they remain a capable side under Jens Berthel Askou who Hearts are yet to beat this season.

I can’t see Motherwell winning at Tynecastle given their current form, but it could be close, so I am covering Hearts in the Double Chance market.

Aberdeen have found themselves in big relegation trouble with the Dons only three points above the play-off spot in 11th.
I am expecting a physical battle at Pittodrie between a struggling Aberdeen team and a Hibs side who have often lacked attacking invention under David Gray this season.

Set-pieces could therefore be crucial, with Aberdeen ranking fifth in the Scottish Prem for total corners per match and Hibs fourth.

Aberdeen’s home matches have averaged 11.33 corners this season while Hibs’ away games have averaged 9.44.

There have not been less than nine corners in an Aberdeen home match in the league since their first game at Pittodrie against Celtic in August.

This selection landed in the initial league meeting between the sides as Blackpool came away 2-1 winners over Peterborough on the road. That clash produced a combined xG of 2.41, with Peterborough actually being quite unlucky to end up on the losing side of the result as the more dominant side xG wise (1.62-0.79).

Peterborough have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, two of these games have ended in draws - but Peterborough don’t tend to share points on the road with only two goals from their 21 away games in League One this season. They’ve seen 55 goals across these matches (2.61 per game), notably conceding 32 goals which suggests there is a slight defensive vulnerability which Blackpool can exploit here.

Blackpool are battling at the bottom of the table and currently sit two points clear of the drop zone. Their home games are crucial from now until the end of the season to steer them away from relegation. Blackpool have avoided defeat in 15 of their 21 home games this term - seeing 59 goals across those games (2.80 per game). 

Neither of these sides are very good at keeping clean sheets either. Blackpool have kept just 10 shutouts across their 42 matches in League One (23%), while Peterborough have kept one fewer, though have only played 40 games (22%). 

This is an absolutely massive game at the bottom of League Two, and a draw does nothing in terms of advancing the survival hopes of these two teams with the relegation battle being incredibly tight at the bottom of the League Two table. 

Newport ran out 3-0 winners when these sides met earlier in the season, though Harrogate were a little unlucky not to get on the scoresheet with an xG of 1.10 from 13 shots. Harrogate and Newport have kept the joint fewest clean sheets in League Two this season, only managing to keep sides out in seven of their 42 matches (16%). 

Newport have only drawn four of their 21 home games this season, seeing 53 goals across these matches (2.52 per game). Only Harrogate (36) have conceded more goals at home in League Two than Newport (34) this season, with Harrogate also conceding the third most goals of any side on the road in League Two this term (38). 

Harrogate have seen BTTS & No Draw in each of their last two matches, I’d expect these sides to grow in desperation from now until the end of the season - especially in games against their relegation rivals. 

Harry Wilson has been brilliant for Fulham this season, netting 10 goals across his 27 starts in the Premier League, which makes him Fulham’s top scorer in the division with one more goal than Raul Jimenez. His role on penalties and set pieces have aided him in getting to his goal tally, and can also help him find the target here. 

This tally represents Wilson’s highest-ever goal output in the Premier League, so it’s no exaggeration to say that he is currently playing as well as he ever has done in the Premier League, which is momentum that can aid him when it comes to finding the target against his former club. 

Wilson has taken 66 shots in the Premier League this season (2.61 per 90), seeing 24 of these efforts find the target (0.95 per 90). He scored from three shots when the sides met earlier in the season, and enjoyed a pretty strong international break - having 3+ shots in both of his matches against Bosnia and Northern Ireland. 

Liverpool have conceded six goals across their two games since the international break. They haven’t managed to get on the scoresheet themselves in these matches, though those games were against PSG and Manchester City. 

Liverpool desperately need all three points here to keep their chances of finishing in a Champions League spot alive, though Fulham will prove to be an awkward opponent, as they were for Liverpool earlier on in the campaign. Fulham held Liverpool to a 2-2 draw earlier in the season, marking the seventh consecutive head-to-head meeting between the sides that has seen BTTS.

Fulham are not very good at keeping clean sheets, with only 6 across their 31 matches this season. Only Leeds, Manchester United, and the three sides in the relegation zone have kept fewer clean sheets than Fulham this season. If we extend this to last season as well, Fulham have only kept 11 clean sheets across their last 69 Premier League matches (15%). 

Liverpool still have plenty of firepower at Anfield, having scored 27 goals across their 15 home games in the Premier League this season (1.8 per game). Only four sides have scored more goals at home than Liverpool in the Premier League this season, suggesting that the individual quality is still there for the Reds to get on the scoresheet. 

I think this is quite a generous price for Liverpool to commit at least nine fouls in this contest. It’s been priced like this due to Liverpool’s low foul count in the reverse fixture (4) and Liverpool’s modest foul count throughout the season (9.80 per game) - which is still above the line we need for this leg of our Bet Builder.

Liverpool committed 12 fouls during the week as they lost 2-0 to PSG, having committed 10 fouls at the Etihad Stadium the previous game. Their last Premier League fixture saw them commit 11 fouls against Brighton, so Liverpool are clearly quite a frustrated side at the moment, and that can feed into them committing nine or more fouls in this must-win clash for Arne Slot’s side. 

The four fouls that Liverpool committed at Craven Cottage earlier in the season can be seen as an anomaly in my view. Liverpool do like to play with intensity, especially at home, and the context surrounding this game should make them more likely to rush into challenges and give away cheap free kicks against a Fulham side who don’t really have much pressure on them at all. 

Konate has struggled quite a lot this season, and we saw that again in midweek as PSG’s front three caused him all sorts of problems as Luis Enrique’s side came away 2-0 winners. Konate committed four fouls in that clash, adding to the three fouls and yellow card he collected in the other game that Liverpool contested since the international break, which ended in a 4-0 defeat to Manchester City. 

Fulham should be encouraged by the vulnerability of Liverpool’s backline at the moment. Konate is the more aggressive of Liverpool’s centre-back pairing, committing 30 fouls across his 29 Premier League starts this season (1.09 per 90). This foul average is far higher than Van Dijk’s (0.45 per 90), suggesting that Konate is regularly the more active in challenges against the opposition striker.

He’ll be faced by Raul Jimenez here, who is very strong when it comes to holding up the ball. Jimenez was fouled once when these sides met earlier in the season, and I’d expect Fulham to draw more fouls from Liverpool than they did in that game (4) - which was a dramatic underperformance on Liverpool’s foul average over the course of the season (9.80 fouls per game).