Andy’s Bet Club

Tips Hub

The best bets from Andy Robson and our team of experts.

Football

World Cup Semi-Final Player Boost 🏆🚀 @ 9.50

Andy Robson

All three players lead their nations for goal contributions at the World Cup

Bellingham and Kane have been the main men for England, and I don't think anybody would argue if I said it's Jude who's had the bigger impact.

His two goals against Norway got them through to the semis, and it's now back to back games he's managed a brace, after putting two past Mexico.

Of the 13 goals scored by England, Jude has been directly involved in seven, and if anybody can make it happen against Argentina it's him.

He's showing 0 signs of slowing down. This bet has landed in all six of his World Cup games so far, and he's already managed 10 goal involvements this tournament.

There's no doubt he's the major threat in this Argentine side, every time Messi is on the ball, something happens.

I'll not continue to bore you with stats as this bet is pretty self explanatory, if anybody can score or assist v England, it's him.

Mbappe is currently sitting on 11 goal involvements this tournament, and the best bit is he's heavily supported by the players around him.

The likes of Dembele and Olise have both managed at least five goal involvements each, with Olise already on five assists so far this tournament. It's even more chance for Mbappe to land this market.

This bet has also landed in every World Cup game so far, managing two or more goal involvements in five of the six.

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Football

Spain v France High Odds Bet Builder 🇪🇸🇫🇷 @ 26.00

Andy Robson

I'm making the most of SkyBet's 25% Booster for this game ⚡

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

Lamine Yamal has probably been the only 'huge name' that hasn't fully delivered in this World Cup yet. He's only scored one goal, which came against Saudi Arabia, and he's yet to register an assist.

Despite that, I'm willing to back him for a goal involvement here. Yamal is insanely good, and it's safe to say he turns it on in the big games, take his UCL record last season - 10 starts, six goals, four assists.

Or his record in the 2024 Euros:

Final (v England) - 1 Assist
Semi Final (v France) - 1 Goal
Quarter Final (v Germany) - 1 Assist

It's also worth noting that the last time Yamal played against France, it was a 5-4 thriller in the Nations League, where he scored two goals, and registered three chances created.

Kylian Mbappe has stolen most of the headlines but I’ve also been really impressed with Ousmane Dembele at this World Cup, who is thriving thanks to a role imposed on him by Didier Deschamps which sees Olise come in to be more central.

Dembele had previously really struggled to perform for France but now plays with the same confidence that we see from him at PSG. He’s scored five goals across his six starts at the World Cup from 16 shots (3.12 per 90), seeing six of these efforts find the target (1.17 per 90).

It’s hard to see how France don’t cause problems in the final third for Spain here given the quality of the players they have in forward areas. France have scored 2+ goals in five of their six matches and top the charts at the World Cup for expected goals (14.3) and shots on target (7.8 per game).

Adrien Rabiot has been very fortunate to avoid a caution at the World Cup so far having committed nine fouls across his five starts in the competition (1.80 per 90).

Many questioned his inclusion at the start of the tournament given the quality that France have in that area of the pitch, but he is a favourite of Deschamps and will have to be alert to the rotations that Spain put together in the middle of the park.

No side is better than Spain at keeping and moving the ball, France won’t struggle for possession - but they will have to break up these periods where Spain dominate the ball to ensure that the likes of Pedri and Rodri don’t start dictating the game.

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Football

£10-£500 World Cup Train Bet 4 🏆🚂 @ 1.67

Andy Robson

Stop 4 on the way to £500 🚂🚂🚂

  • Spain v France
  • Today
  • 20:00

Spain have been the best side at the World Cup in my view and I'm a bit surprised that they’re priced at 2.30 to come through this tie, with France being clear favourites at 1.61.

Spain have won five of their six matches at the World Cup, only failing to beat Cape Verde in their opening game which ended 0-0. That game was one of only two occasions across Spain’s last 26 matches where they’ve failed to score. 

Luis de la Fuente’s side have a good recent history against France as well, having beaten Didier Deschamps’ team 5-4 in the Nations League last year - as well as coming away 2-1 winners when the sides faced off in the semi finals of the most recent European Championships.

I think this will naturally be a high scoring game with the attacking talent on show and this should lead to both sides having chances. France have scored in all six of their matches so far, scoring 2+ goals in five of these games so Spain can’t expect to get through with a clean sheet. 

Lamine Yamal has found the target in all three of Spain’s knockout matches at the World Cup, managing 2+ shots on target in all of these games. He’s also had the most touches in the opposition box and most shots of any player in all three of these matches. 

Yamal also scored in both of those Spain wins against France over the last few years and usually saves his best performances for this stage - if he finds the back of the net here, we will have a winner. 

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Football

Spain v France Double 🇪🇸🇫🇷 @ 8.00

Andy Robson

This bet was just a Spain corner away when the sides faced last year 🤏

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

This bet stood out to me as soon as I spotted it really.

First off, Both Teams to Score. When it comes to France, need I say anything? They've got Mbappe upfront, with Dembele, Olise and Doue behind him. They've also scored in every game at the World Cup, averaging 2.67 goals scored per game.

Spain have been less free-flowing then France, but they've still scored in all of their last five games. I also think this match should bring them out of their shell, just like it did when these sides last met in the Nations League and it finished 5-4 to Spain.

Now the corners. Only one team has taken more corners at the World Cup than Spain and France, Canada.

Spain are averaging 7.33 corners per game, France sitting at 6.83.

Looking at the each half aspect of the bet, it's landed in four of Spain's six matches, and five out of six France matches.

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Football

Mbappe & Yamal Boost 🇪🇸🇫🇷🚀 @ 13.00

Andy Robson

Yamal and Mbappe always turn up in games like this

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

With no surprise, Mbappe has been France's best attacking outlet. He has produced 11 goal contributions across six starts so far.

In terms of shots on target, he has had an incredible 19 so far (More than every other player at the World Cup), which turns into an average of 3.33 per 90 minutes.

He has had five shots on target from outside the box across his six appearances so far with two of them resulting in goals.

Yamal has taken more shots than anyone else in the Spain squad and he is currently averaging 2.22 shots on target per 90 minutes at the World Cup.

He has had six shots on target outside of the box at this tournament and five of them have come in his last three appearances. In Spain's last match against Belgium, Yamal had two shots on target outside of the box.

He takes direct free-kicks which is always nice. It's how he had his shot on target outside of the box against Portugal.

Mbappe is France's second-most fouled player in the squad behind Michael Olise and he is averaging 1.23 fouls drawn per 90 minutes.

He has been fouled twice in each of his last two appearances against both Paraguay and Morocco.

He also drew two fouls when France faced Spain in the semi-finals of the Nations League this time last year.

Again, no shock but Yamal is Spain's most-fouled player. He is averaging 1.56 fouls drawn per 90 minutes.

When Spain faced France in that outing in the Nations League semis last year, Yamal was fouled four times in total.

Yamal has been fouled six times across his last two matches, twice against Portugal and four times against Belgium.

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Football

ABC Exclusive Turbo Boost: England to Score + Bellingham 1+ Shots & Bellingham 1+ Fouls Won 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🚀 @ 2.00

ABC Editorial Team

All three of our exclusive turbo boosts on England games have won ✅

  • England v Argentina
  • Tomorrow
  • 20:00

England have scored in five of their six matches at the World Cup, netting 2+ goals in two of their three knockout matches.

Bellingham has been England's standout player at this World Cup. He's taken 17 shots across his six starts (2.97 per 90) and is level with Harry Kane as England's top scorer.

Bellingham will also have quite a battle to contest in the middle of the park up against Argentina's four man box midfield. He's committed six fouls across his six starts at the World Cup (1.05 per 90).

You won't get these odds anywhere else, back it below 👇

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Football

England v Argentina Bet Builder 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇦🇷 @ 4.71

Andy Robson

I'm expecting lots of fouls here

  • England v Argentina
  • Tomorrow
  • 20:00

Semi-finals can be tight and low-scoring affairs, but I think there is real potential for both sides to end up on the scoresheet given the vulnerabilities we’ve seen at the back from both nations up to this point.

Argentina have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their knockout games, conceding 2+ goals against the likes of Egypt and Cape Verde during this run. 

They leave quite a lot of space at the back and probably could have conceded more goals against Switzerland had the European side managed to keep all 11 players on the pitch.

England have been exposed at the back on a few occasions too, conceding in all three knockout matches against DR Congo, Mexico and Norway. There’s an open feel about England when they lose the ball in transition, and Argentina have the players to exploit that. 

Corners have been an asset for both sides at this World Cup, and England also looked a little vulnerable defending them against Norway last time out, which may be an avenue that Argentina look to exploit.

Argentina opened the scoring against Switzerland from a corner last time out, with Alexis Mac Allister getting on the end of Messi’s delivery. They’ve seen 8.17 corners per game at this World Cup, managing 5+ corners in normal time in all three of their knockout games.

England have seen 8+ corners in all six of their games at the World Cup, seeing an average of 10.67 corners per game across those matches. Their own corner count has dropped slightly across the last few games, but it’s still a real asset of this England side with the excellent delivery of Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka from either side. 

Jude Bellingham has been sensational for England at this World Cup and continues to step up for his country when it matters most, with the latest example being his brace against Norway to earn England a spot in the semi-finals.

Bellingham has taken 17 shots across his six starts at the World Cup (2.97 per 90), seeing 11 of those efforts find the target (1.92 per 90). 

He’s scored six goals from those attempts, which is the joint-most in the England squad, alongside Harry Kane. 

This tally puts him firmly in the race for the Golden Boot alongside the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi - with Bellingham being the only player in the running to have scored all six of his goals from open play. 

He’s clearly England’s most influential player at the moment, and I back him to be a threat inside the box again here.

I’m expecting an intense midfield battle here, and Enzo Fernandez should be at the heart of that.

Fernandez plays a bit deeper for his country compared to the role we’ve seen him fill in at Chelsea over the last few seasons, which is ideal for our angle here.

He’s committed six fouls across his five starts at the World Cup (1.12 per 90) and will now line up against Jude Bellingham and Elliot Anderson.

Both players should be able to draw fouls from Fernandez, but Bellingham stands out as a particularly strong threat, having been fouled four times against Norway last time out and 12 times in the tournament overall (2.10 per 90).

Fernandez usually enjoys this type of midfield battle, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a booking in this one as well. 

One of the most underrated parts of Harry Kane’s game is how good he is at holding the ball up, especially for a player who doesn’t have a massive physical presence at the top end of the pitch.

One of the key battle is going to be between Kane and Argentina’s centre back duo of Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez. 

Kane has won eight fouls across his six starts at the World Cup (1.28 per 90), with most of those fouls being won as a result of the forward dropping deep into more central areas and allowing runners to go beyond him.

I expect both Romero (1.40 fouls per 90) and Martinez (0.88 fouls per 90) to follow him into those pockets at times, but he’s also going to run into Argentina’s four-man box midfield when he drops this deep - also giving him a good chance of winning a foul. 

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Horse Racing

Tuesday Racing Ratings Win Double 📊🏇 @ 9.16

ABC Editorial Team

Follow the data with Racing Ratings 📈

Seeing a big improvement since the introduction of eye covers, BRADBURY stopped the 10-race streak without a win with back-to-back victories at Leicester and Wetherby last month, and given he is racing only 4lb higher in today’s affair, the hat-trick is well within reach. 

Racing out of Edward Bethell’s yard, who are in top form of late (stables' last three runners have all won), and given the conditions at Beverley today, this should suit Bradbury well. Thriving since his return to turf in May, the three-year-old has produced results of 2,2,1,1, and with his best performances coming with eye covers in action (retained), he’s the form pick in today’s contest. 

Staying on well last time out at Wetherby when winning by half a length, he came from the rear of the field before showing a great turn of foot, and given he won with a bit in hand in the end, the hat-trick looks on the cards, given his current mood. 

Showing positive signs in his two latest performances, CLASSY CLARETS (8.1) is making his return to the all-weather today for the first time since March, but given his latest turf form, he is going to be tough to stop racing 2lb lower today. 

Landing back-to-back wins at Musselburgh and Catterick in his two latest starts, and given his latest performance is arguably a career best, he holds bold claims at Wolves today.

Winning comfortably by 3 ¼ lengths, he was eased down towards the finish, and given his all-weather mark on his return, he holds leading claims. Winning off a mark of 60 last time out, Classy Clarets is racing off a mark of 58 on his return to the all-weather, and considering how well he won last time out on turf, he’s the one to beat.  

Already a previous course and distance winner here at Wolves, and given he is returning today, a different proposition, he looks set to make a winning return today.

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Football

Betfred Daily Boosted Double ⚡🚀 @ 2.25

Andy Robson

My last two Betfred Boosted Doubles have won ✅

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

Luis de la Fuente’s side have a good recent history against France as well, having beaten Didier Deschamps’ team 5-4 in the Nations League last year - as well as coming away 2-1 winners when the sides faced off in the semi finals of the most recent European Championships.

I think this will naturally be a high scoring game with the attacking talent on show and this should lead to both sides having chances. France have scored in all six of their matches so far, scoring 2+ goals in five of these games so Spain can’t expect to get through with a clean sheet. 

Lamine Yamal has found the target in all three of Spain’s knockout matches at the World Cup, managing 2+ shots on target in all of these games. He’s also had the most touches in the opposition box and most shots of any player in all three of these matches. 

Yamal also scored in both of those Spain wins against France over the last few years and usually saves his best performances for this stage.

Spain have not lost a competitive fixture since losing to Scotland in the run up to the last EUROs back in 2024.

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Football

Correct Score & Anytime Goalscorer: Spain v France 🇪🇸🇫🇷 @ 13.00

Ramis Ibrahim

I've had 10/1, 13/1 and 29/1 winners in the World Cup on Correct Score & AGS ✅

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

It’s really hard to split these sides, France are favourites to qualify @ 1.61, but that’s quite harsh to a Spain side who have been the most complete team in the tournament so far. 

I can see this tie going all the way to penalties, this would be a fair final if the draw had worked out differently and I can’t see either side giving the other too much of an edge in what should be an exciting, but at times calculated, contest. 

Both sides have avoided defeat at the World Cup so far, with France winning all six of their games and Spain winning five of their six matches, with the exception of their 0-0 draw with Cape Verde in their opening game of the tournament.

Mbappe is an obvious pick to find the back of the net; he’s scored in every game so far, which takes his overall tally at the World Cup to 20 goals. He’s netted 64 goals across 104 caps for France and should continue to be a threat for France in this game, despite this being their toughest assignment so far.

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Football

Spain v France Shot Accumulator 🇪🇸🇫🇷 @ 3.54

Ramis Ibrahim

The stage is set for Yamal and Mbappe

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

This selection has landed in all six of Mbappe’s appearances at the World Cup, with the Real Madrid forward actually managing 3+ shots on target in half of those games.

Mbappe has scored eight goals at the World Cup and will have a personal ambition to win the Golden Boot alongside helping his nation to lift the trophy. 

He’s taken 30 shots across those games (5.21 per 90) - only Lionel Messi (33) has had more attempts than Mbappe at this World Cup.

Mbappe has seen 19 of those 30 efforts find the target (3.30 per 90), working out to a shot accuracy of 63%, which is a ridiculous standard to set at this level.

Lamine Yamal’s numbers might not immediately leap off the page, but he’s still been hugely influential for Spain at this World Cup, and he tends to save his best displays for the big occasions.

Against Belgium last time out, Yamal topped the charts for touches in the box (12) and total shots (six) among all players, which actually marks the third consecutive game where he’s led the way in both categories.

It’s clear the 19-year-old is consistently finding dangerous positions, having taken 23 shots across his five appearances (5.11 per 90), with 10 of those finding the target (2.22 per 90).

He also has a bit of history against France, having scored against them in last year’s Nations League and netting a stunning goal during his breakout campaign at the most recent European Championship.

Adrien Rabiot is not the first player that would come to mind in this France squad to have an effort in this clash, but he’s got a really consistent record at this World Cup and also offers an aerial threat from set pieces.

Rabiot has had a shot in four of his last five appearances for France at this World Cup and has taken seven shots overall (1.40 per 90). 

Four of those efforts have come from outside the box, with two attempts also coming from headers following a corner - showing the versatility in how Rabiot may get a shot away. 

He scored six goals from 46 shots (1.62 per 90) during the most recent Serie A campaign for AC Milan, showing further consistency to his game when it comes to getting shots off.

Pedro Porro has emerged as a natural replacement for Dani Carvajal in this Spain side.

It’s a trait of Spain that probably explains why they are so effective: every time they have a player that looks to be ageing or moving out of their prime, there is always a ready-made replacement who can slot in and keep Spain playing in the same way.

Porro does get forward more often than Carvajal did and has already scored at the World Cup, having got on the end of a cross against Austria in the Round of 32. 

He’s taken five shots at the World Cup overall (1.25 per 90) and won’t be afraid to have a go from distance, with three of those efforts coming from outside the box.

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Football

Epic Boost: France To Lead At Anytime 🇫🇷🚀 @ 2.00

ABC Editorial Team

France have taken the lead in all of their six of their World Cup matches

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

France come into this tie as favourites and are priced as low as 1.57 in places to qualify from this tie.

They carry an attacking threat that Spain have yet to really face and have scored 2+ goals in five of their six matches, notably scoring first in all of these games.

France took the lead after just nine minutes when these sides met in the semi final of the European Championships a few years ago before Spain mounted a comeback spearheaded by Lamine Yamal.

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Football

Turbo Boost: Kylian Mbappe to Score or Assist 🇫🇷🚀 @ 2.00

ABC Editorial Team

This has landed in all six of Mbappe's games so far

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

Mbappe is currently sitting on 11 goal involvements this tournament, and the best bit is he's heavily supported by the players around him.

The likes of Dembele and Olise have both managed at least five goal involvements each, with Olise already on five assists so far this tournament. It's even more chance for Mbappe to land this market.

This bet has also landed in every World Cup game so far, managing two or more goal involvements in five of the six.

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Football

Super Boost: Ousmane Dembele to have 1+ Shots on Target 🇫🇷🚀 @ 2.00

Andy Robson

41% of Dembele's total goals for France have come at this World Cup

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

Dembele has scored five goals across his six starts at the World Cup from 16 shots (3.12 per 90), seeing six of these efforts find the target (1.17 per 90).

It’s hard to see how France don’t cause problems in the final third for Spain here given the quality of the players they have in forward areas. France have scored 2+ goals in five of their six matches and top the charts at the World Cup for expected goals (14.3) and shots on target (7.8 per game).

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Football

BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals World Cup Semi Finals Double 🔥⚽ @ 5.51

Andy Robson

Both of these games are incredible on paper, I'm expecting goals

Both defences have looked shaky to say the least, but thankfully England have Kane and Bellingham, whilst Argentina have Messi.

This exact thing has happened in the last four games for Argentina, and the last three games for England, if you include extra time. And even away from that, both sides have managed just two clean sheets in six games.

As it stands, Argentina are the highest scorers at the World Cup, with 17 goals, whilst England aren't too far behind on 13.

An early goal here should really open it up, and I do think the fact it's being played in Atlanta will have an impact due to a stadium with air con, meaning there's less risk of the heat or altitude impacting the flow of the game.

Both games are incredible, and this one should be a blockbuster. The last meeting finished 5-4, and all the chat around the clean sheets for both sides, I feel will no longer be relevant.

This is a France side who have scored two or more goals in five of their six matches, the only time they didn't was the 1-0 win against Paraguay, and I can't see this game being anything like that.

France have racked up the highest xG at the tournament, with 14.30, with Spain not far behind at 11.7. From this, Spain have scored 11 goals, and have only failed to score once, in that surprise draw to Cape Verde.

As I mentioned earlier, this game had nine goals last time, and they managed a combined 5.65xG, 40 shots and 17 shots on target. I'm expecting goals.

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Football

Spain v France Foul Accumulator 🇪🇸🇫🇷 @ 3.00

Ramis Ibrahim

Both centre backs could be exposed here

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

Dayot Upamecano has committed a foul in all six of his World Cup matches, and I think this Spain side represent the first opponent France have faced at this tournament who can truly test them at the back.

Morocco looked a bit blunt without their star man Ismael Saibari last time out, but Spain offer far more of a threat and the fluid movement of their front three is bound to cause Upamecano problems, particularly given how prone the Bayern Munich centre back is to making errors.

France's defensive line do like to push quite high up the pitch and their full backs press on, which often leaves Upamecano and Saliba relatively exposed in transition. That kind of scenario could easily contribute to Upamecano committing at least one foul here.

One area where France could get real success in this game is exploiting the high line that Spain like to play, with Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte both being at risk of committing tactical fouls.

We saw this in Spain’s game against Belgium last time out, both Cubarsi and Laporte got yellow cards as a result of having to haul down the likes of Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard when Belgium came forward in moments of transition. 

Cubarsi is an exceptional centre back for his age, but even he will struggle to contain the likes of Mbappe, Olise and Dembele here. His direct opponent in Kylian Mbappe has been fouled twice in each of France’s last two matches.

Cubarsi has committed four fouls overall at the World Cup (0.67 per 90), but I expect the centre back to be more active than he has been in some of Spain’s other games, against arguably the best attacking trio in the world at the moment.

Yamal didn’t win many fouls in the early stages of the tournament, which was likely a result of the winger wanting to avoid too much contact, having just returned from injury. 

However, we’ve seen Yamal engage more regularly with those duels in recent games. He was fouled four times against Belgium last time out after winning two fouls against Portugal in the Round of 16. 

He’ll really fancy his chances of testing Lucas Digne in this one, who has a very interesting record when it comes to committing fouls in high profile games - he’s committed a foul in each of his last four matches for France and usually struggles against top opponents.

It’s near impossible to stop Olise without hauling him to the ground, even more so now he’s operating in a central role which sees him have plenty of run-ins with opposing midfielders.

Spain will press Olise in the same way they do every opponent, though the Frenchman has the skill to find a way out of that press, which may lead to Spain having to chop Olise down as their only way of stopping a devastating France attack, especially in moments of transition.

Olise has drawn a foul in each of his last five appearances for France, drawing multiple fouls in three of those games - including 3+ fouls won against Paraguay in the Round of 16 followed by 4+ fouls won against Morocco last time out.

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Football

Spain v France Bet Builder 🇪🇸🇫🇷 @ 4.37

Ramis Ibrahim

The most recent meeting between these sides finished 5-4 last year

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

Lamine Yamal’s numbers might not immediately leap off the page, but he’s still been hugely influential for Spain at this World Cup, and he tends to save his best displays for the big occasions.

Against Belgium last time out, Yamal topped the charts for touches in the box (12) and total shots (six) among all players, which actually marks the third consecutive game where he’s led the way in both categories.

It’s clear the 19-year-old is consistently finding dangerous positions, having taken 23 shots across his five appearances (5.11 per 90), with 10 of those finding the target (2.22 per 90).

He also has a bit of history against France, having scored against them in last year’s Nations League and netting a stunning goal during his breakout campaign at the most recent European Championship.

It’s hard to see how this game won’t produce goals given the level of attacking quality on display. 

France have seen 2+ goals in five of their six matches at the World Cup, with the exception of their 1-0 win over Paraguay, which was kept low scoring by their opponents setting up in a low block and breaking the game up as much as possible.

France have scored 2+ goals themselves in those matches, and have not failed to score in 19 matches across all competitions. 

Spain do have a really impressive defensive record at this World Cup, but I find it very difficult to make a case for them to come away with a clean sheet given the trio of Mbappe, Michael Olise and Dembele lining up against them. 

The last three head-to-head meetings between the sides, stretching back to 2021, have produced at least three goals - Spain beat France 5-4 in the Nations League semi-finals last year.

Spain have won 5+ corners in all six of their matches at this World Cup, going on to win six corners in 83% of those games.

It’s a part of their game which probably doesn’t get picked up on as much as their counter-pressing or how they move the ball through the thirds, but it’s still an important factor of Luis de la Fuente’s game plan.

Spain are able to win so many corners as a result of how wide they play. Yamal and Porro, in particular, down the right hand side of the pitch, allow Spain to have a constant outlet in wide areas, which is advantageous for corners, as they are likely to take on the opposition in 1v1 duels and try to get crosses into the box.

This selection has landed in all six of Mbappe’s appearances at the World Cup, with the Real Madrid forward actually managing 3+ shots on target in half of those games.

Mbappe has scored eight goals at the World Cup and will have a personal ambition to win the Golden Boot alongside helping his nation to lift the trophy. 

He’s taken 30 shots across those games (5.21 per 90) - only Lionel Messi (33) has had more attempts than Mbappe at this World Cup.

Mbappe has seen 19 of those 30 efforts find the target (3.30 per 90), working out to a shot accuracy of 63%, which is a ridiculous standard to set at this level.

Dayot Upamecano has committed a foul in all six of his World Cup matches, and I think this Spain side represent the first opponent France have faced at this tournament who can truly test them at the back.

Morocco looked a bit blunt without their star man Ismael Saibari last time out, but Spain offer far more of a threat and the fluid movement of their front three is bound to cause Upamecano problems, particularly given how prone the Bayern Munich centre back is to making errors.

France's defensive line do like to push quite high up the pitch and their full backs press on, which often leaves Upamecano and Saliba relatively exposed in transition. That kind of scenario could easily contribute to Upamecano committing at least one foul here.

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Football

💎 Gem Bet: Fabian Ruiz 1+ Foul Committed @ 1.66

Andy Robson

This is priced as short as 1.11 elsewhere.

  • France v Spain
  • Today
  • 20:00

This is priced as short as 1.25 on other bookies, even going as short as 1.11 on less popular ones. Managing 1.62 feels generous.

A lot of this bet for me is based on his potential opponent, Michael Olise, who has been averaging 2.41 fouls won per90. Of the players that remain in the World Cup, he's the joint most fouled alongside Messi.

There's also the likelihood he has to sit deeper and defend against Mbappe, who averages 1.23 fouls won per90.

The reason I think this price is a little higher, is due to Ruiz not having the best fouls committed record, but I do feel like this can be put down to his lack of starts, and also isn't factoring in his potential opponents.

France last played Spain in June last year, it finished 5-4, and Ruiz came off the bench in the 64th minute and committed a foul on Dembele.

Olise should start, and Ruiz should play alongside Rodri.

When looking at fouls won for Olise: 4, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2

I also checked specific fouls won for Olise:

  • In his last game, against Morocco, both CMs fouled him.


  • Against Sweden, Bergvall (CM) committed a foul on Olise.


  • Against Norway, Berg (CM) committed a foul and got carded.


  • Against Senegal, Camara (CM) and even Diarra who come off the bench into midfield fouled him.

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