These sides have already faced off in the Champions League this season, with BTTS landing on that occasion as Bayern came away 2-1 winners over PSG at the Parc Des Princes. That victory made Bayern one of less than a handful of sides that have managed to come to the Parc Des Princes and win over the last few seasons in the Champions League, and sets up Vincent Kompany’s side to get on the scoresheet again here.

That game earlier in the season saw a combined 14 shots on target and both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.95-1.53). Bayern Munich have seen BTTS in three of their last four matches, most recently going 3-0 down to Mainz at the weekend before rallying to win 4-3 - a perfect example of how Kompany’s side can be comfortable in high scoring matches with the elite scoring power they have through Kane, Olise and Diaz.

Bayern come into this game having avoided defeat across their last 19 matches, averaging over 3.0 goals per game in this run of fixtures. I can’t see how this clash stays low scoring, there is the factor of it being a first leg so there may be cagey moments at times - but the attacking quality on display in both camps should lead to both sides being able to get on the scoresheet.

Michael Olise scored another brilliant goal at the weekend, there’s an angle available from the crowd if you haven’t seen it where you can see the curve and dip on the ball when he strikes it - it’s well worth the watch. He’s reached another level this season alongside the likes of Diaz and Kane with the trio forming one of the most well balanced frontlines i’ve seen in the modern game.

Olise has scored 22 goals across all competitions for Bayern Munich this season, already eclipsing his tally of 17 he managed in his debut year having played just one game more than he did last term. He’s registered 10 goal contributions across his 11 starts in the Champions League, four of these being goals, which has been achieved from a shot total of 39 (3.90 shots per 90).

Of these 39 efforts from Olise, 16 have found the target (1.60 per 90). These underlying numbers are very impressive, and when paired with the confidence that Olise is currently playing with - there should be opportunities for the former Palace winger to find the target, as he did on two occasions when these sides met in the league phase of the Champions League.

Konrad Laimer is a player that I’ve backed regularly for fouls during this Champions League campaign and he rarely disappoints. The former midfielder now almost exclusively operates as a fullback, and is expected to fill in at left back here where he’ll have a tough test against the likes of Desire Doue and Achraf Hakimi.

Laimer isn’t a bad player, but if you were PSG that’s where you’d be looking to target Bayern as their pressure point. There’s so much attacking quality in this Bayern side that it’s easy to overlook the shortcomings of their backline - which was almost torn apart solely by Vinicius Jr and Mbappe in the second leg of their quarter final clash against Real Madrid.

Laimer has committed 15 fouls across his nine starts in the Champions League this term (1.88 per 90), picking up four yellow cards in the process. I think he’ll struggle to manage Doue in a similar way to how he struggled with Vinicius Jr in the quarter final, Doue has won 14 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this term (2.08 per 90), and when supported by Hakimi (0.95 fouls won per 90) - the pair should be able to draw at least two fouls from Konrad Laimer.

Ousmane Dembele wins fewer fouls than you may think (0.62 per 90), but this selection mainly focuses on the aggressive and occasionally clumsy nature of the Bayern Munich backline. Vincent Kompany’s side committed 22 fouls across the two legs of their quarter final tie against Real Madrid, with 12 of these fouls being committed by a member of their back four.

Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano both committed 2+ fouls each in the first leg of Bayern’s clash against Real Madrid - struggling to handle the threat of Vinicius Jr and Mbappe. I can see the centre back duo struggling a little again here with the rotations that PSG can put together with how fluid their front three is. Dembele doesn’t just stay in central areas either, he swaps with Doue and Kvaratskhelia - so there will be times where Dembele will be facing up against Laimer (1.88 fouls committed per 90).

This selection landed via Super Sub when the sides met earlier in the campaign. Dembele didn’t really get a chance to test the backline of Bayern as he went off injured after the first 25 minutes of the encounter. He should be able to have a proper run at Tah and Upamecano here - who combine to commit 3.48 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

Our last two stat based accas have won @ 4.50 & 4.16 ✅

Both sides are battling for the one automatic promotion spot remaining in the Championship, separated by just four points.

Southampton have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, keeping just three clean sheets across their last 10 matches.

Ipswich have seen BTTS in two of their last three Championship matches.

Each of the last four head to head meetings between these sides since 2024 has seen BTTS, the most recent meeting finished 1-1.

Our last two stat based accas have won @ 4.50 & 4.16 ✅

Northampton have lost each of their last 10 matches across all competitions, last earning a point on the 28th February.

Only Port Vale (21) have picked up fewer points at home than Northampton (22) in League One this season.

Barnsley avoided defeat when these sides met earlier in the season, with that game finishing 2-2.

Barnsley have avoided defeat in each of the last five head to head meetings between these sides since 2023.

Our last two stat based accas have won @ 4.50 & 4.16 ✅

Stockport have only lost five of their 22 home games in League One this season.

Port Vale have already been relegated from League One, and have won just one of their last five matches across all competitions.

Port Vale have only won five of their 22 away games in League One this term.

Only Rotherham (15) and Northampton (16) have scored fewer goals on the road in League One than Port Vale (17).

Stockport have faced Port Vale twice this season, winning both games by an aggregate scoreline of 7-0.

Our Trend Single in Liverpool v Crystal Palace won @ 3.2 ✅

Did you know that only Kvaratskhelia (8) has scored more goals in the Champions League for PSG this season than Vitinha (6)?

I was a bit surprised when I came across that metric, you'd expect the likes of Dembele, Doue or even either of PSG's fullbacks to be a bit higher up the scoring charts in the Champions League but it's Vitinha who has been popping up with crucial goals in Europe for Luis Enrique's side. Only one of these goals has come from the penalty spot too, so even from open play Vitinha remains as PSG's second top scorer in the Champions League, level with Doue on five goals.

Vitinha has taken 38 shots across his 14 starts in the Champions League this season (2.72 per 90) - which is a ridiculous record for a midfielder and quite an increase on his shot numbers in Ligue 1 (1.43 shots per 90). 14 of these attempts in the Champions League have found the target, rounding his shot on target average at 1.00 shots on target per 90 in Europe. Another factor worth noting is that 30 of these efforts have come from outside of the box, so that's where Vitinha will be taking aim from if he does end up having a few shots in this game.

In a game where all the high ranking options for a shot on target are not generously priced, Vitinha offers a slightly different angle with a solid record in the Champions League to justify backing this bet at 2.0. His role on penalties also offers another route to the target should PSG be awarded a spot kick in this game.

The bookmakers expect there to be at least 11 shots on target here going by the prices in the shot market (12+ SOT @ EVS), with PSG expected to have at least six efforts on goal. This suggests that more than just the frontline of PSG will be able to test Bayern here, with Vitinha offering a promising angle at this price giving his surprisingly strong record in the Champions League this season.

Vitinha had six shots when these sides met in the league phase, seeing three of these efforts find the target. Bayern did drop down to 10 men in that game, but it's still a good example of the shot threat that Vitinha can pose in this clash.

I’ve picked out the standout players for Tuesday’s Champions League semi-final for an 8/1 double which looks strong on paper.

Kane is enjoying another strong season for Bayern Munich having netted 12 goals across his 10 starts in the Champions League. Kane has scored in each of his last four appearances across all competitions for Bayern Munich, including in the second leg of Bayern’s quarter final clash against Real Madrid - a game in which he managed two shots on target from three attempts overall.

Kane is averaging 4.19 shots per 90 in the Champions League this term which is an astronomical average to maintain in this competition. He’s also seen 21 of his 40 attempts in total find the target, working out to a promising average of 2.20 shots on target per 90. This is an average he’s maintaining in the Bundesliga as well (4.63 shots per 90 & 2.63 shots on target per 90).

Kane is also very capable when it comes to winning fouls having drawn 19 across his 10 starts in the Champions League this season (1.99 per 90). He was fouled twice in both legs of Bayern’s quarter final clash against Real Madrid, with this trait of Kane’s directly related to the centre forward being encouraged to drop into deeper pockets under Vincent Kompany. 

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is enjoying some season for PSG, he’s already just one goal contribution away from matching the total set by Ousmane Dembele for PSG in the Champions League last season - which was a run of form that probably gave him the edge in the Ballon D’or rankings. Kvaratskhelia really isn’t too far away from that elite level, having netted eight goals across 11 starts in the Champions League this season.

Kvaratskhelia has actually scored more goals in the Champions League this season (8) than he has in Ligue 1 (7), despite playing five more games domestically. He’s averaging 4.28 shots per 90 in the Champions League this term - which is actually higher than Harry Kane, showing just how often the winger has been taking aim in the Champions League this term.

He’s almost impossible to stop when he gets going, averaging 2.65 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this term. He’ll be up against the likes of Laimer and Stanisic when rotating between the two wings, who are the weaker points in this Bayern side that PSG will be trying to expose as often as possible.

Dayot Upamecano has always been a bit of a clumsy centre-back. This is probably his best season to date, but he still has that reckless streak in him – and I can see the Frenchman and his partner Jonathan Tah struggling with some of the rotations that PSG are able to put together in the final third and through their dynamic midfield.

Luis Enrique said something really interesting the other day in an interview I saw, where he mentioned that he wants a group of players who can play anywhere – suggesting it would cause a nightmare for opponents since they wouldn't know who will play where. I'd argue he's actually not that far from achieving this already with this PSG side, who all look comfortable in different areas of the pitch.

Upamecano is averaging 1.61 fouls committed per 90 in the Champions League this season, a fairly substantial increase on his numbers in the Bundesliga. He'll be up against a front three for PSG who average 5.35 fouls won per 90 in this competition.

Ousmane Dembélé wins fewer fouls than you might think (0.62 per 90), but this selection mainly focuses on the aggressive and occasionally clumsy nature of the Bayern Munich backline. Vincent Kompany's side committed 22 fouls across the two legs of their quarter-final tie against Real Madrid, with 12 of those fouls being committed by a member of their back four.

Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano both committed 2+ fouls each in the first leg of Bayern's clash against Real Madrid, struggling to handle the threat of Vinícius Jr and Mbappé. I can see the centre-back duo struggling a little again here with the rotations that PSG can put together, given how fluid their front three is. Dembélé doesn't just stay in central areas either – he swaps with Doué and Kvaratskhelia, so there will be times where Dembélé is facing up against Laimer (1.88 fouls committed per 90).

This selection landed via Super Sub when the sides met earlier in the campaign. Dembélé didn't really get a chance to test Bayern's backline as he went off injured after the first 25 minutes of that encounter. He should be able to have a proper run at Tah and Upamecano here – who combine to commit 3.48 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

Julian Alvarez has been a consistent performer for Atletico Madrid this season, contributing in the quarter finals with a brilliant free kick against Barcelona in the first leg - also managing to find the target in the second leg as Atletico battled to knock out Hansi Flick’s side. 

Alvarez is still a bit underrated and under-appreciated in my opinion, he’s a brilliant striker and has netted 17+ goals across all competitions in each of the last six seasons across spells at Atletico Madrid, Manchester City and River Plate. He’s currently on 19 goals for the season, nine of which have come across 13 starts in the Champions League.

This is actually one more goal than Alvarez has scored in LaLiga this term, despite making nearly double the number of appearances domestically. This tells us that Alvarez comes alive in these competitions, he’s taken 39 shots across these appearances in the Champions League (3.20 per 90), seeing 20 of these efforts find the target (1.64 per 90). 

Alvarez had three shots when these sides met earlier in the campaign, and was very unlucky not to find the target with one of these efforts coming back off the crossbar just after half time.

Martin Zubimendi committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card when these sides met earlier in the season, and sees a significant rise in his foul numbers when playing in the Champions League compared to the Premier League.

Zubimendi has committed 17 goals across his 10 starts in the Champions League this season (1.78 per 90), which is a significant rise on the 0.95 fouls committed per 90 he’s averaging in the Premier League - which is still a decent foul output for a side as dominant as Arsenal and suggests that Zubimendi will get involved in the midfield battle here. 

He’s attracted some criticism of late due to mistakes and being a bit slow to react to developing situations, but I think this is more down to fatigue rather than Zubimendi’s quality - he’s been playing in that role without any real backup due to Arteta’s reluctance to use Christian Norgaard unless it’s in cup competitions.

Atletico Madrid have scored in each of their last 17 matches across all competitions, a run that stretches all the way back to the 15th February - when they lost 3-0 to Rayo Vallecano on the road. They’ve played Barcelona four times in this period, as well as Tottenham twice and Real Madrid, so Atletico do have significant quality in the final third that can hurt Arsenal.

This campaign means a lot to Diego Simeone, you wouldn’t be able to tell because his demeanor on the side of the pitch hasn’t changed that much from his usual frantic nature. It’s important because this will be Simeone’s last chance to win the Champions League at Atletico Madrid - the only trophy he’s missing from his illustrious career as Atletico Madrid manager.

Arsenal started the season with one of the best defensive units I’ve probably ever seen, but this hasn’t maintained throughout the campaign and they’re a tad more vulnerable at the back now. They were lucky to keep a clean sheet against Newcastle at the Emirates last time out, with the Magpies registering an xG of 1.00 from 13 shots - and have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five away matches across all competitions.

Only Liverpool (79) have won more corners in the Champions League this season than Atletico Madrid (77). This works out to an average of 5.50 corners per game, which rises to 5.86 corners per game when Atletico play in front of their own supporters.

Atletico Madrid racked up four corners when these sides met in the league phase of the campaign. That was when Arsenal were at their best and didn’t have the pressure of a tight title race and being in the semi-finals of the Champions League - but Atletico still managed to cover this corner line and I think they can do it again in this clash.

Arsenal are conceding 3.08 corners per game in the Champions League this term, but this record isn’t as solid as the average suggests. Context tells us that this Arsenal side is a bit vulnerable at the moment and doesn’t do well under pressure, allowing Atletico Madrid to register at least four corners in this assignment, coming in under their average for the season.