Calvert-Lewin is the man for Leeds. He's had the most shots (40) and shots on target (20) so far this season, averaging 1.14 shots on target per90.

He's managed a shot on target in four of his last three games, with one of those blanks against Arsenal, a game they got absolutely battered.

Last time he played against Forest, he came on for a 17 minute stint, managing two shots with one on target. Just after he went on a run of six consecutive games scoring, he should get chances tonight.

Forest are conceding 4.08 shots on target per90, and come in as the underdogs here going off the bookies odds. With DCL as short as 1.33 for a shot on target, you're getting value at EVS.

Bryan Mbeumo has been a big hit at Man Utd since signing from Brentford last summer and is the club’s top scorer in the Premier League on eight.

The forward is very reliable for shots on target, averaging 1.55 per 90 in the Premier League.

He is on a hot streak of form at the moment, hitting at least one shot on target in 13 league games in a row.

Mbeumo has only failed to hit a shot on target in two of his 19 Premier League appearances this season.

His chances of hitting the target have only increased since Michael Carrick took charge, with Mbeumo starting the last three matches as Man Utd's central striker.

Mbeumo should be very confident of hitting the target at least once against a struggling Spurs side who are without a win in six Premier League matches.

Thomas Frank’s side have conceded 10 goals across this winless run and face a tough task to shut out a flying Man Utd team who have hit seven goals in three matches under Carrick.

All in all, getting Mbeumo at Evens for a shot on target screams value for this game. I'm all over it myself.

Only Casemiro (31 fouls) has committed more fouls than Luke Shaw (30) for Man Utd this season.

I actually said 'fucking hell' out loud when I went to check his Hit Rate, he's landed this bet fifteen league games in a row, with this run including the last time he played Spurs.

His potential opponents are likely to be Kolo Muani and Gallagher, who are solid for winning fouls. Gallagher is actually averaging 2.41 fouls won per90 across his three league games so far for Spurs, with Kolo Muani on 0.91 per90.

This is probably the favourite boost for the game, it should be priced as short 1.30, with some bookies even as low as 1.17, but we're getting EVS (2.0).

Mainz are desperately scrapping to find a way out of the relegation zone having struggled for consistency this term, mainly due to the added pressures of having to contest a European campaign in the Conference League alongside their Bundesliga duties.

Mainz have found their feet in recent weeks and come into this game having won back to back matches against Wolfsburg and Leipzig - with both games seeing BTTS. This record extends to Mainz’s last five games, each of which have seen both teams find the back of the net.

Mainz have only won four games in the Bundesliga this season, but three of those victories have come across their last five matches - including critical victories against Wolfsburg and Heidenheim who are alongside Mainz in the battle for survival.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced five goals as Mainz ran out 4-1 winners over Augsburg. They should be encouraged by their recent upturn in form, as well as the fact that they can drag Augsburg into the relegation conversation with all three points in this clash.

Augsburg have seen BTTS in each of their last four matches across all competitions, notably beating Bayern Munich in this recent run of form. They’ve also seen 28 goals across their nine away games in the Bundesliga this term (3.11 per game), promising an end to end clash here.

There should be no shortage of entertainment when Edinburgh City face East Kilbride in Scottish League Two on Saturday afternoon. Both teams have been among the great entertainers in the SPFL this season, making both teams to score an obvious angle to consider in this capital clash.

Moreover, there have been goals at both ends in a whopping 20 of Edinburgh City's 22 league matches this season, including each of their 11 fixtures in front of their own supporters. Across that 22-game sample, both teams scored in each of the previous two meetings between the pair this season, one of which was a 2-2 draw at this venue back in September.

East Kilbride have also been reliable from a BTTS perspective this season, with 14 of their 22 league matches seeing both teams hit the back of the net, including 7 of their 10 assignments away from their K-Park home. With both teams in desperate need of points, albeit for different reasons, another goal-heavy game seems likely at Meadowbank on Saturday.

Notts County are another side who are running hot over the last twelve months, averaging over two points per game during this period.

This run has taken them to 2nd place in League Two, just five points behind leaders Bromley. County are quite neat in their build-up, not going long too often despite the temptation of big striker Jatta leading the line. County have won five in a row and will be looking to continue that run here.

Barrow are the visitors to Meadow Lane, bringing with them a record of just one win in their last fourteen league games. It’s early days for new boss Paul Gallagher, but his arrival has done nothing to inspire a revival. He has lost all three games, scoring twice and conceding seven.

They are actually better away than at home over the course of the season, but it’s hard to see anything other than a County win in this one.

Barcelona are still embroiled in a title race with Real Madrid, Hansi Flick’s side are one point clear at the top of LaLiga and come into this clash having won each of their last five matches across all competitions - with all four of these games producing 3+ goals.

Barcelona have managed to cover this line themselves in four of their last five matches across all competitions, also only keeping one clean sheet in this period. This recent run of form sums up Hansi Flick’s side pretty well - they are relentless in the final third and don’t mind giving up chances at the back, as they trust so heavily in their attacking output.

Mallorca have also seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and are looking to put some more distance between themselves and the drop zone. They claimed a crucial 4-1 win over Sevilla last time out which has really opened up the competition at the bottom of the Spanish top flight.

Barcelona covered this line on their own in the most recent meeting between the sides, coming away 3-0 winners. Mallorca may be able to contribute to the goal count on this occasion, Vedat Muriqi leads the line for the away side and he is currently the second top scorer in LaLiga with 15 goals - only Mbappe (22) has more.

In League Two, no other club has a better Both Teams to Score success rate than Fleetwood Town who've had it occur in 71% of their league matches so far this season.

As for Bromley, they've had Both Teams to Score land in a respectable 59% of their matches and they've also had Over 2.5 Goals scored in 59% of their matches with only three clubs bettering that.

Both Teams to Score and No Draw has landed in each of Fleetwood's last five matches in a row across all competitions. Results reading 1-2, 1-2, 2-1, 1-2 and 3-1.

As for Bromley it has landed in two of their last three 1-4, 2-2 and 2-1, scoring eight goals themselves across the three fixtures. This match points to an away win with both teams scoring.

A fact ahead of this fixture is that Scunthorpe are the best National League side to back when it comes to Both Teams to Score. Both sides have scored in a huge 78% of their league matches.

Scunthorpe have also been good for the over markets with nigh on 60% of their matches also seeing Over 2.5 Goals.

BTTS and No Draw has landed in six of Scunthorpe's last eight matches across all competitions. Their last five results have read 1-2, 3-2, 1-3, 2-2 and 3-1 - Goals Galore.

There's a good chance that Southend score here as they're slight favourites for the match and they have scored in every away match they've played in the league this season.

Southend's last three league matches have been goalsy with two of those having BTTS and no draw. The three results were a 2-1 win at Rochdale, a 3-3 draw with Boston Utd and a 4-1 win over Eastleigh.

Bologna haven’t been at their best in recent weeks, but have an opportunity to get back to winning ways in Serie A against a Parma side that has been equally poor of late and is looking to pull themselves away from the relegation zone.

Bologna ran out 2-1 winners in the most recent meeting between these sides which took place back in December. That triumph was in the Coppa Italia, and Bologna were pretty dominant - ending the game with an xG of 1.91 from 16 shots, six of which managed to find the target.

Bologna also came away 3-1 winners in the initial league meeting between these sides, they were helped by a first half red card for Parma but still managed to rack up an xG of 2.72 from 22 shots overall.

Parma haven’t managed to gain much momentum on their travels in Serie A this season with just three wins from their 11 away matches this campaign. They’ve only scored seven goals across these fixtures, which is the second lowest total when compared to other sides on the road in Serie A this term.

Swansea aren’t quite completely clear of the drop zone in the Championship but do boast a seven point buffer at the time of writing which should be enough of a base from this point in the season to stay up in the second division of English football.

They welcome a Sheffield Wednesday side that have had a disaster campaign, both on and off the pitch, eventually leading to a points deduction which sees the away side still stuck on -7 points, having won just one of their 30 matches in the Championship this term. Unsurprisingly, Sheffield Wednesday have the worst away record in the Championship this season and have conceded 25 goals across their 14 away matches.

Swansea beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 win the sides met earlier on in the season in a comfortable victory which saw the Welsh side register an xG of 1.31 from 17 shots. Sheffield Wednesday never really found a way into this clash and ended up with just one shot on target.

There is currently a six point gap between Alkmaar and Ajax in the Eredivisie with the away side holding this advantage at the moment. This has the feel of a pivotal game for Alkmaar in particular, not only so they can close the gap to Ajax but also so they can put themselves in the conversation for a Champions League finish.

Alkmaar have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently running out 2-1 winners at home over Twente. They’re at home again for this clash which is significant as they’ve only lost two of their 10 home games in the division, with these games producing 40 goals (4.0 per game).

It is also worth noting that Ajax have drawn six of their 10 away games in the Eredivisie this season, the joint most in the Eredivisie. These games have also produced high goal counts with 41 across the 10 away clashes (4.1 per game). Ajax have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, promising an entertaining clash in the battle for Europe in the Eredivisie.

Juventus are one of two teams who are still unbeaten on home turf in the Italian top flight this season - their record of seven wins and four draws at the Allianz Stadium speaks volumes on how they are such a difficult side to beat. The Bianconeri have been a real force to be reckoned with since Luciano Spalletti took over, and they come into this clash having won seven of their last eight matches on home turf.

While Lazio present a tough matchup, Juventus have fared well against the top sides in Turin, beating the likes of Inter Milan and Roma, while they also secured a comfortable 3-0 win against Napoli in their last home outing.

Meanwhile, Lazio won’t be looking forward to this matchup, given that they have lost each of their last five matches against Juventus in Turin, by an aggregate score of 10-1.

Leeds will fancy their chances of securing a positive result on home turf, especially after a disappointing showing against Arsenal last time out. Losing to the league leaders is understandable, but the manner of that defeat will hopefully act as a wake-up call. Leeds will relish a return to Elland Road, where they have been far more competitive, hoping to bounce back.

The Whites come into this clash with five wins, four draws, and just three losses at home this season, which highlights how they take things up a gear when boosted by their home crowd. Notably, they have already beaten sides operating in a similar area of the table, including West Ham and Crystal Palace, which bodes well for them here.

Meanwhile, Forest were fortunate to hold on to a point against the Eagles last time out, after Neco Williams was sent off in the first half.

Leeds failed to score against Arsenal last weekend, which marked the first time they’ve drawn a blank on home turf since a 0-0 draw against Newcastle in August. Daniel Farke’s side have generally been efficient in front of goal at Elland Road, and will hope to exploit a vulnerable Forest backline on Friday night.

Angus Gunn made his debut against Crystal Palace last time out, as Matz Sels had to be replaced at half-time. With John Victor also injured, the Tricky Trees have had to deploy their third-choice keeper.

This line has landed in nine of Leeds’ 12 home matches this season in the league, with both teams scoring in eight of those games. Both sides will recognise this as an ideal opportunity to secure three points, which means they should be front-footed in their approach. Because of that, goals become a market to target.

Leeds haven’t quite been as watertight defensively in recent weeks, and Arsenal were able to pick them apart with relative ease. Forest should be able to find some joy in the final third, and Igor Jesus stands out as a player who should find himself involved.

The Brazilian has shown a tendency to cause problems in the final third, coming into this clash with four goals in his last five appearances across all competitions. That run includes a recent brace against Ferencvaros in the Europa League and a league goal against Brentford. Jesus failed to land this selection against Arsenal and Crystal Palace, with the latter impacted by that first-half red card.

The 24-year-old also managed five shots in the reverse fixture, somehow failing to hit the target despite finding promising positions. Given the context of the game, Jesus is one to keep an eye on.

The reverse fixture saw Forest dominate proceedings, posting 2.55 xG from 14 shots, but Leeds look a different side now. Daniel Farke’s switch to a back five has brought greater balance, and results have gradually improved as a result.

Ethan Ampadu continues to operate in a similar role in the heart of midfield and has been trusted in this position throughout the campaign. He was fouled once in that earlier meeting, and is averaging 1.0 fouls drawn per 90 this season, rising to 1.2 when playing at Elland Road.

Ampadu has drawn nine fouls across his last six home league appearances, landing this selection in all of those matches. He should find duels against the likes of Elliot Anderson, Ibrahim Sangare, and Morgan Gibbs-White in midfield here - the trio have combined for 3.58 fouls per 90 in the league this season.

It is a surprise to see that we can access this line in the card markets, and I am really confident that this is a good value bet.

Starting with the referee here, James Bell averages just over 3.5 yellow cards per match this season in the Championship, which is actually just below average against his peers. However, his career average over 62 Championship matches is higher, 3.79, and his overall season average across all competitions is 3.67.

Charlton's home matches also create an interesting edge in this market as well. The Addicks themselves average 2.15 yellow cards per home match, each of their last six home matches have gone over this line, and 11 out of 13 of their home matches in the league this season have also gone over this line.

As for QPR, looking into their away matches we can see that 11 out of 15 of their away matches in the league have gone over this line. The averages are 1.8 yellow cards for Rangers, and 1.6 for their opponents, all of which are good contributors to this particular line.

There are a couple of key reasons why I like this line for Charlton corners. Taking the home side first, they are averaging over five corners, 5.15, at home in the league so far this season. Their last home match only saw them get four, but prior to that they won nine against Sheffield United, nine against Coventry, five against Oxford, and five against Middlesbrough.

The main reason I like this angle though is QPR’s away record in terms of corner concession. They have had tendencies this season to allow teams to come onto them a bit more than many would expect, managing only 27% possession at Stoke and 33% at Portsmouth recently.

his tactic is reflected somewhat in the corner concession figures. QPR are averaging 7.13 corners against them in away Championship matches this season, which is high. Recently, they only conceded two at Oxford, but prior to that their run was 6, 9, 9, 9, 9, 6, 14, 5, 6, 4, 5, 12, 9, and 2.

The price on this bet seems much bigger than the data suggests that it should be. Firstly, whilst Dunne has only attracted fouls at a rate of 0.69 per 90, there is a current run of five matches in a row in which Dunne has been fouled, and two of those matches have been ones in which he has been fouled twice. His rate of being fouled does actually rise in away matches as well, from 0.69 to 0.8.

As always, we also have to consider the opponents in this scenario. Dunne is likely to face up against Miles Leaburn a lot, as he has been playing as a centre forward, but sometimes on the left of the attack as well. Leaburn averages 2.02 fouls per game when playing at home, and has committed at least one foul in his last five matches.

This is a fairly short price, but that reflects the likelihood of this coming in. Jones has committed a foul in eight of his last nine starts, with the only match that he didn’t foul in during this run being when he was forced off through injury at half-time against Derby.

He is averaging 1.41 fouls per 90 this season in the league, and this actually rises significantly when only looking at Charlton home matches. There have only been two instances of Jones not committing a foul at home this season, one was the aforementioned Derby match, and the other was at home to Swansea in November. He averages 1.85 fouls per 90 minutes played at home.

His potential opponent, Richard Kone, is well known for getting involved in physical battles as well, though Kone is more often the perpetrator of fouls rather than the victim, it wouldn’t take much for the referee to have a different interpretation.