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Tottenham v Aston Villa Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.40

Andy Robson

McGinn has won 13 fouls already this season

  • Tottenham v Aston Villa
  • Today

I’ve long been a defender of Nicolas Jackson and can see him having joy here against a Tottenham side that look a bit all over the place at the moment.

Jackson has scored one goal for Aston Villa so far, with that goal coming in the Champions League as Unai Emery’s side recorded a routine victory over Club Brugge - that saw Jackson manage two shots on target.

Some of you will remember the hat trick that Jackson scored at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for Chelsea a few years ago, so he has positive memories of the ground as he looks for his first Premier League goal for Aston Villa.

There’s definitely a discussion to be had about how clinical Jackson is in front of goal, but what is undeniable is how often he gets in dangerous areas - averaging 1.88 shots on target per 90 and scoring eight goals in 12 starts for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last term. 

Bentancur has always been a player for me that has a lot more talent than he’s shown during his time in the Premier League, particularly his ability on the ball which is often overlooked.

Bentancur has committed eight fouls across just three starts in the Premier League already this season (2.50 per 90), with this high foul count mainly being a result of Bentancur having to make tactical fouls to protect Tottenham’s backline, which looks really vulnerable.

He lines up against the most fouled side in the Premier League across each of the last two seasons, with his direct opponent likely to be Emi Buendia - who has become a key player in this Aston Villa side and is averaging 1.72 fouls won per 90.

I backed this angle in Villa’s win over Coventry in the EFL Cup during the week and it sailed in on that occasion with McGinn winning four fouls as Villa came away 3-1 winners.

McGinn has already won 13 fouls across just four starts in the Premier League this season (3.32 per 90). He was hauled down 48 times across 28 starts in the Premier League last season (2.00 per 90), so this is clearly a consistent part of his game that can come to the fore here against an aggressive Tottenham side. 

McGinn faced off against Tottenham twice last season, drawing at least one foul in both games. He was fouled twice in Villa’s win over Tottenham in the FA Cup, and that aggression from the home side is likely to reach similar levels given that they’re averaging 14.3 fouls committed per game.

These sides met three times last season, with all three matches ending in a 2-1 victory for Aston Villa. In fact, each of the last four head to head meetings between the sides in North London have seen 3+ goals.

Both sides saw 3+ goals in their League Cup matches during the week, with Villa covering this line on their own as they came away 3-1 winners over Coventry while Tottenham faced another defeat against Liverpool - but did post an xG of 2.24 from 17 shots.

I don’t trust either of these backlines at the moment, and have seen enough from Tottenham’s underlying numbers to know that goals will eventually come for De Zerbi’s side.

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