Dortmund will hope to make home advantage count and take a lead to Italy for the second leg. The Black and Yellows tend to be front-footed in European fixtures at the Signal Iduna Park, with ten goals scored in their four Champions League home matches this campaign. Niko Kovac’s men are averaging 14.25 shots per game at the Signal Iduna Park, with 6.5 on target, which has translated to 3.75 opposition goalkeeper saves per match.

One outing against Inter Milan has weighed those numbers down. Dortmund were beaten 2-0 by the Nerazzurri, registering just nine shots and one on target in that contest. However, Inter are flying at the top of Serie A, while Atalanta sit 19 points behind them domestically. This matchup against Atalanta promises to be an easier one for Dortmund, and they should have a lot more success in the final third. 

Dortmund come into this clash in a rich vein of form, so this could be a tough night for Atalanta in midfield, and Marten De Roon in particular. The Dutchman was recently suspended against Cremonese for an accumulation of yellow cards, but returned to the starting eleven against Lazio at the weekend. The Atalanta captain remains a key presence in midfield, tasked with contesting duels in midfield to protect his back line.

De Roon is averaging 1.23 fouls per 90 this season and has landed this selection in 11 of his last 12 matches across all competitions. The 34-year-old has struggled at times in higher-intensity fixtures, making two fouls recently against Inter, while he was also sent off against Juventus earlier in the campaign. He will operate in a similar zone to Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha here, which is a solid matchup to target De Roon.

PSG come into this clash as heavy favourites, but Monaco secured a convincing 3-1 victory in their last league outing, which should fill them with confidence. Given that PSG have only kept five clean sheets from their 17 away matches across all competitions this season, this contest could be more evenly-balanced than those odds suggest. 

It was a relatively even contest before Thilo Kehrer was sent off when the sides met in November - Monaco had 10 shots in that game, forcing Lucas Chevalier into four saves. The Red and Whites are drawing 3.38 opposition saves on average this season when playing at home, rising to 4.5 when playing in the Champions League. 

They have the blueprint on how to cause problems on the break for the Parisians, and will once again hope to execute that game plan on Tuesday night.

It was a positive result for Monaco on Friday night, but that was unfortunately tarnished by some key players going off injured. Maghnes Akliouche had to be replaced in the first half, before Lamine Camara also went down injured. Sebastien Pocognoli already has an extensive injury list to contend with, but that means Mamadou Coulibaly could get the opportunity to start in midfield.

The 21-year-old came on for Akliouche after 43 minutes, and he was carded just four minutes later for a cynical foul. Coulibaly hasn’t featured regularly this season, but he has got stuck in when trusted to start. 

The Frenchman is averaging 2.21 fouls per 90 across all competitions this campaign, and will have a tough job on his hands here, facing PSG. He didn’t feature in this fixture back in November, but Lamine Camara and Jordan Teze, who started in midfield, were both booked.

Real Madrid superstar Kylian Mbappe is enjoying another outstanding season in the Spanish capital, racking up 38 goals in 31 appearances across all competitions so far.

Remarkably, 13 of those strikes have come in just 7 outings in this season’s Champions League, including a brace against Benfica at the end of January. Those numbers are even more impressive when you factor in the 5 assists that Mbappe has contributed for good measure.

After being an unused substitute in Saturday’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad, Mbappe should be primed and ready for this week’s first leg in the Portuguese capital. Thus, the 27-year-old looks well placed to register another goal involvement against a Benfica side that failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their 8 league phase matches.

While I’m not expecting the goal glut we saw when these two met last month, I think backing both teams to score looks worthy of support. Jose Mourinho will know that a positive result on Tuesday night could be crucial if his side are to have any real chance of reaching the round of 16. With that in mind, the Benfica boss may release the handbrake slightly and let his side probe for a first-leg advantage.

It is also worth highlighting that Benfica have not been entirely watertight at home this season - something we saw when they faced Real Madrid on the final night of the league phase. What's more, 4 of Benfica’s last 6 Primeira Liga home games have seen both sides find the net.

As for Real Madrid, both teams have scored in each of their last 4 continental contests - including that recent 4-2 reverse at this very venue. Saturday’s 4-1 win over Real Sociedad offered further proof that, for all their quality, Los Blancos are still susceptible to the occasional lapse at the back. Additionally, BTTS would have paid out in Real Madrid’s relatively recent La Liga road trips to Girona, Elche and Deportivo Alaves.

Bromley are well placed to pick up all three points on Tuesday night when they welcome an out of form Cheltenham side who have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions - losing four of these games.

Cheltenham’s away form doesn’t offer too much hope either, they’ve only managed to win three of their 15 matches on the road - only two sides in League Two have won fewer games away from home than Cheltenham this season. Cheltenham have lost nine of these games, notably conceding 32 goals making them the second weakest defence on the road in League Two this term.

Bromley ran out 2-1 winners when these sides met earlier in the season, and were full value for that victory when looking at the xG numbers of the two sides (2.63-0.87). Bromley are also yet to lose a game at home in League Two this term, winning nine of their 15 matches.

What is particularly notable about Bromley’s home record for our selection here is the fact that they’ve only conceded 17 goals at home this season. It’s hard to see how Cheltenham find joy in the final third against the league leaders, given that they’ve only scored 13 goals across their 15 away matches in League Two this term.

Both of these sides currently sit in the League One relegation zone, making this a classic six pointer with huge implications for the battle at the bottom. Burton hold a narrow one point advantage going into the match, but with four teams separated by just two points near the drop zone, the pressure is on both to take something from this clash.

Burton have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, though goals have been a consistent feature - with both teams scoring in four of those outings. They’ve generally been competitive on home soil this season, averaging 2.6 goals per game at home (39 goals in 15 home matches). When these sides met earlier in the campaign, Burton held Rotherham to a 2-2 draw, and each of the last three meetings have also seen both teams get on the scoresheet.

Rotherham, meanwhile, have managed just three wins from 14 away games in League One this term, so confidence on the road may be fragile. However, given the high stakes and the need for both teams to push for maximum points, an open and competitive contest is likely - one that should see at least two goals.

Dortmund are playing with renewed confidence under Niko Kovac after a disappointing season last term, and they have a strong chance of giving themselves the perfect advantage to take into the second leg.

Dortmund have only lost one of their four home games in the Champions League this season, with this promising home record being just as strong in the Bundesliga. Dortmund have won nine of their 11 home games in the German top flight, avoiding defeat in all of these matches. Most impressively, Dortmund currently have a better home record in the Bundesliga than the dominant Bayern Munich.

Atalanta have certainly improved since the departure of Ivan Juric, but I think it’ll take a massive performance for them to take a lead into the second leg. They’ve won two and lost two of their four away matches in the Champions League this season, only scoring four goals across these games. 

Atalanta’s away record in Serie A also isn’t the strongest. They’ve only won four of their 12 games on the road, with a low goal count (14) once again standing out. I don’t think Atalanta will be able to live with a high scoring display from Dortmund, nor do they have the quality to become only the second side to beat Dortmund at home across the Bundesliga and Champions League this season.

Real Madrid may have lost to Benfica a few weeks ago in the final game of the league phase, but they still managed to score two goals in that clash - with both coming from Kylian Mbappe. Real Madrid managed 16 shots, with six finding the target, on that occasion and we can expect them to be the dominant side again here given the expected approach of Mourinho’s Benfica side.

Benfica played in transition in that 4-2 win, securing the victory with only 33% of the ball which tells us a little about how they will approach this clash. It’s important to note that the mentality of Benfica has changed, they needed to win in that game a few weeks ago - but this is the first of a two legged affair, so they will naturally sit off a bit more than they did in that 4-2 win.

Furthermore, Real Madrid tend to thrive in this competition. They netted 21 goals across their eight matches in the league phase, working out to 2.6 goals per game. Real Madrid to win is also an attractive price, available at 1.8, but I think that their goal record is slightly stronger at the moment to take at a lower price for the purposes of our acca.

The initial meeting between these sides this season was a goal fest, ending in a 4-1 victory for Crewe. While the scoreline was slightly exaggerated given the similar xG figures (1.63 to 1.23), it highlighted Crewe's ability to generate high shot volume - they managed eight more attempts than Fleetwood on that day. 

This aggressive approach in front of goal is a key reason why their home games are so productive. At Mornflake Stadium, Crewe's 16 league matches have produced a staggering 47 goals, averaging 2.93 per game, setting the stage for another high scoring affair.

Fleetwood's recent form is the perfect prep for the BTTS & No Draw market. They have seen BTTS land in each of their last five matches across all competitions, and more importantly, this specific 'BTTS & No Draw' outcome has landed in four of those five games. 

This run, which includes a 1-1 draw with Oldham last time out, demonstrates a clear pattern of being involved in decisive, high scoring games. However, their away form is brittle; they have managed just four wins from 15 games on the road in League Two this term. This vulnerability away from home makes them likely to contribute to a game with goals at both ends, but unlikely to grind out a draw.

Crewe, meanwhile, arrive unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions. While BTTS has only occurred in two of those five, their overall home record is dominant. They have suffered just three defeats at Mornflake Stadium all season, meaning that when goals are scored by both sides on their turf, it almost always results in a home win. This makes the 'BTTS & Crewe to Win' an exceptionally strong angle within the broader BTTS & No Draw market.

With Crewe's formidable home form and high scoring tendencies clashing with Fleetwood's goal prone but defensively vulnerable nature on the road, the conditions are perfect for a result either way. 

Fleetwood's recent run of games featuring BTTS & No Draw in four of five outings confirms they are consistently part of this exact betting pattern. Therefore, backing BTTS & No Draw - with a strong lean towards Crewe securing the victory - aligns perfectly with both the statistical narrative and the teams' current trajectories.

Reading enter this match full of confidence after a vital 3-2 victory over Wycombe over the weekend. That result has propelled them to within three points of the playoff spots with a game in hand, creating a strong sense of urgency to secure maximum points. 

This desperation for a win is reflected in their recent results, with Reading seeing BTTS & No Draw land in each of their last three matches across all competitions. Their games are consistently high scoring and decisive, with their last five matches producing a total of 19 goals. Furthermore, their home fixtures have been action packed, with 41 goals in 16 league games at the Select Car Leasing Stadium, averaging 2.56 per game.

Bolton, firmly entrenched in the playoff positions, have also shown strong recent form to solidify their standing. They remain unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, but critically, both sides have drawn just one of their last five games, highlighting a trend for definitive results. 

Bolton's matches have also seen BTTS land in four of their last five, and they will be eager to replicate the dominant performance they put in during the initial league meeting between the sides, which ended in a 1-1 draw. However, given the current high stakes for both clubs - with Reading fighting to break into the top six and Bolton aiming to secure their spot - a second consecutive draw is unlikely.

With both teams in desperate need of points to boost their playoff pushes, the stage is set for an open, attacking game where defensive solidity may be sacrificed for victory. Reading's recent trend of high scoring, winner takes all outcomes, combined with both sides' playoff ambitions and aversion to draws, makes the BTTS & No Draw selection a particularly strong angle for this fixture.

There is very decent value with this boost, if you were to build it yourself with other bookmakers it comes out as low as 1.90. This suggests that the boost is worth backing for the value alone, and both Mbappe and Vinicius have promising numbers when it comes to these angles.

Mbappe has been brilliant in the Champions League this season, netting 13 goals across his seven appearances in the competition. He’s achieved this tally from 40 shots (5.80 per 90), 22 of which have managed to find the target (3.19 per 90). Furthermore, Mbappe maintains an average of 2.32 shots on target per 90 in LaLiga this term - showing a consistency in his game when it comes to finding the target. Mbappe netted a brace against Benfica when the sides met a few weeks ago, from four shots in total.

Vinicius Jr was fouled five times in the meeting between these sides just a few weeks ago, accounting for 45% of the total fouls that Benfica committed in that clash.

This suggests that Mourinho has given his side specific instructions to handle the threat of Vinicius, making him a solid option to draw at least two fouls in this clash. Vinicius Jr has won 48 fouls across his 20 starts in LaLiga this term, working out to an average of 2.44 fouls won per 90.

It all comes down to the price. Real went off at 1.73 before losing 4-2 to Benfica at the end of the league phase.

In the era of too many games, motivation plays a bigger part, Benfica had more on the line. They were heading out of the competition, Real only had the top eight to play for, they missed out and have the cushion of two more games of UCL TV exposure.

We’re getting 1.83 on the Real win for this one, compared to 1.73 just a few weeks ago. At this stage of the competition last term, Real beat Man City 6-3 on aggregate - a tougher assignment.

Since losing to Benfica, Real have won three in a row, scoring eight in that trio, they’ve won 3/4 UCL away games this season.

Benfica have drawn 0-0 at Tondela and only beat sides of the calibre of Alverca and Santa Clara 2-1.

Otamendi, now 38, is giving away more fouls with age. He’s mistiming challenges more often as he edges towards retirement. Over the last three seasons of Champions League action, he’s gone from 0.67 fouls per 90 to 1.00 fouls per 90 to 1.38 fouls per 90 this term.

He committed 11 fouls across eight league phase games; he made three fouls on one of those occasions and four on another.

I don’t think he’s got the athleticism to legally deal with this Real frontline. Vinicius Junior has won 1.57 fouls per 90 in the UCL this term, Kylian Mbappe is at 1.30 and Arda Guler is at 1.78.

I think Mourinho looks to sit in here; they only had 33% possession when they beat Real 4-2. That’s going to give Real loads of territory and force Otamendi to defend in tight spaces.

Real Madrid have looked like a very frustrated side to me this season, and that becomes even more evident when you look at their card numbers in the Champions League this term.

Only Villarreal and Copenhagen (19) picked up more yellow cards than Real Madrid (18) in the league phase of the Champions League, working out to an average of 2.25 cards per game.

This is slightly skewed by Real Madrid picking up seven yellow cards and two red cards against Benfica last week, but this shows the tenacity which could be present from the away side in this particular clash.

Real Madrid have picked up 2+ cards in five of their eight Champions League matches this term, with the only away game from those three matches being their 5-0 win over Kairat Almaty - a game that had few redeeming qualities in terms of being a competitive contest.

I think Jose Mourinho and Benfica will have a plan to frustrate Real Madrid again here, with 2+ cards for Alvaro Arbeloa’s side looking to be a convincing angle for this first leg clash.

Arda Guler has been a trusted member of the squad by Alvaro Arbeloa in the absence of Jude Bellingham. He’s started seven of the eight games that Arbeloa has taken charge of, and with Bellingham expected to be sidelined for this clash, he should earn a starting role.

Guler is very strong when it comes to winning fouls, he was hauled down once in the meeting between the sides a few weeks ago and has won 11 fouls across his seven starts in the Champions League this season (1.78 per 90). Guler also maintains a solid foul won average of 1.23 fouls won per 90 in La Liga this term, so it is a consistent part of his game which can come to the fore here.

I particularly like this angle due to the tenacity of Benfica’s midfield. Mourinho likes to keep that part of the pitch very congested, so Guler will have a variety of opponents in this clash looking to bring him down. Guler’s main opponents here should be Enzo Barrenchea and Leandro Barreiro with the pair combining to commit 2.63 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this term.

It hasn’t been an easy campaign for Atalanta, and they currently sit 6th in the Serie A standings, having won just four of their 12 away matches in the league. While they come into this clash on a positive run, with three successive wins, it’s worth noting that they lost back-to-back Champions League matches to conclude the league phase. Since then, Ademola Lookman has departed for Atletico Madrid, while Charles De Ketelaere has picked up a knee injury. That’s two big blows for Atalanta to contend with in the final third.

Meanwhile, Dortmund have looked solid on home turf this season, and they were dominant against Mainz (winning 4-0) at Signal Iduna Park last time out. That result keeps the pressure on Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga standings. With that game taking place on Friday, Dortmund have had plenty of time to prepare for this fixture - it’s difficult to see the German side losing against Atalanta here.

Dortmund will hope to make home advantage count and take a lead to Italy for the second leg. The Black and Yellows tend to be front-footed in European fixtures at the Signal Iduna Park, with ten goals scored in their four Champions League home matches this campaign. Niko Kovac’s men are averaging 14.25 shots per game at the Signal Iduna Park, with 6.5 on target, which has translated to 3.75 opposition goalkeeper saves per match.

One outing against Inter Milan has weighed those numbers down. Dortmund were beaten 2-0 by the Nerazzurri, registering just nine shots and one on target in that contest. However, Inter are flying at the top of Serie A, while Atalanta sit 19 points behind them domestically. This matchup against Atalanta promises to be an easier one for Dortmund, and they should have a lot more success in the final third. 

Dortmund come into this clash in a rich vein of form, so this could be a tough night for Atalanta in midfield, and Marten De Roon in particular. The Dutchman was recently suspended against Cremonese for an accumulation of yellow cards, but returned to the starting eleven against Lazio at the weekend. The Atalanta captain remains a key presence in midfield, tasked with contesting duels in midfield to protect his back line.

De Roon is averaging 1.23 fouls per 90 this season and has landed this selection in 11 of his last 12 matches across all competitions. The 34-year-old has struggled at times in higher-intensity fixtures, making two fouls recently against Inter, while he was also sent off against Juventus earlier in the campaign. He will operate in a similar zone to Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha here, which is a solid matchup to target De Roon.

De Roon typically takes on the larger defensive burden in midfield for Atalanta, which allows Ederson a bit more attacking freedom. The Brazilian international likes to get forward, and is averaging 1.32 shots per 90 across all competitions. That figure rises slightly to 1.42 shots per 90 when playing away, where he has landed this selection in nine of his 11starts this season. 

He has accrued seven shots in the Champions League this term, with six of those coming from outside the box, while he also found the back of the net against a fellow German side, Frankfurt. Ederson scored his second goal of the season against Lazio at the weekend, which came from the penalty spot. With that being said, the majority of his shots this season have come from distance, which could be useful against a side like Dortmund, who will limit clear-cut chances.