Brentford have been very strong at home this season, avoiding defeat in 11 of their 13 matches at the Gtech Community Stadium. These games have been pretty entertaining as well, with Brentford seeing 37 goals across their home matches (2.84 per game). 

They’ve seen 2+ goals in 10 of these matches, and have the perfect opponent to see a similar goal tally in this clash. Brighton have seen 34 goals across their 13 away matches in the Premier League this term (2.61 per game) - notably winning just two of these games.

Recent meetings between these sides also offers plenty of promise when it comes to goals, the last two head to head meetings have produced nine goals, with Brighton running out 2-1 winners when the sides clashed earlier in the season. That game saw a combined xG of 3.13, offering promise of at least two goals in this encounter. 

There’s plenty of motivation for both sides to go for the three points too, Brentford are chasing a spot in Europe next season while Brighton need to be wary of being sucked into the relegation battle on the back of a few weeks of poor form. 

These sides faced off in November in a clash that produced five goals, with Birmingham coming away 4-1 winners. Birmingham alone managed to register an xG of 3.56 in that game, while Norwich pitched in to the entertainment as well with an xG of 1.34 from 15 shots.

Norwich have seen 36 goals across their 15 home games in the Championship this term (2.4 per game) with only one of these games ending in a draw. This suggests that Norwich often find themselves in end to end games at home, which can help contribute to at least two goals in this encounter.

Furthermore, only two sides in the Championship have kept fewer clean sheets than Norwich (5) this season. This election has landed in nine of Norwich’s last 10 matches across all competitions, with the only game in which it failed to come in being a 1-0 defeat to Middlesbrough - one of the best sides in the division.

Birmingham tend to struggle on the road and have seen 37 goals across their 16 away matches in the Championship this term (2.31 per game). They’ve only won four of these games, potentially opening the door for Norwich to be on the right side of the result here in what should be an entertaining game. 

Hearts can’t afford to drop points in games like this anymore if they want to remain a competitive force in the intriguing title race forming in the Scottish Premiership. Last weekend could prove to be a decisive one, with Hearts losing 4-2 to Rangers while Celtic battled back from two goals down to come away 3-2 winners against Kilmarnock.

This has left the top of the table incredibly tight, with only three points separating Hearts in first and Celtic in third. It is also pretty significant that Celtic still have a game in hand on both Rangers and Hearts, so there is very little leeway for Hearts from now until the end of the season - especially seeing as experience isn’t on their side.

Hearts are yet to lose a game at Tynecastle Park in the league this season, winning nine of their 13 matches. They’ve only conceded nine goals across these games, and have netted 26. This home form will be crucial to any chance they do have of stealing the title away from Rangers or Celtic, they are the only side in the Scottish Premiership who are yet to lose a game at home.

Falkirk did manage to get the better of Hearts in a recent cup clash on penalties, but Hearts have notably won both of the league meetings against Falkirk this season to nil. When the away side last visited Tynecastle Park, they were hammered 3-0 with Hearts managing double the number of shots (20-10) and also dwarfing Falkirk when it came to xG (1.94-0.67) and efforts on target (10-3).

Almere thrashed Eindhoven in the most recent league meeting between the sides, coming away 5-0 winners in that clash. Eindhoven were reduced to 10 men in the first half of that game, so Almere’s dominance was a little exaggerated and I think both sides will be able to contribute to the goal tally in this encounter. 

Almere currently occupy the final spot for the playoffs, and are being closely pursued by the likes of Waalwijk, Den Bosch and Venlo who will be eagerly watching here in the hopes that they slip up. One of the most notable parts of Almere’s overall record in the Eerste Divisie this season is how few of their matches have ended in draws - only three of their 26 games have ended with the points shared, suggesting that their matches tend to be end to end.

Almere’s away matches tend to be particularly exciting with 45 goals across their 12 away games (3.75 per game) - only one of these matches has ended in a draw. They travel to an Eindhoven side who aren’t quite out of the playoff picture yet, but would need to win here to have any chance of finishing inside the top eight. Their home games have been just as entertaining this season with 45 goals across 13 matches (3.46 per game).

Inter faced a disappointing result during the week as they lost 3-1 to Bodo Glimt in the Champions League, making the second leg against the Norwegian side a mammoth task next week. Their focus shifts back to Serie A here, where they have an opportunity to really pull away from the chasing pack.

Their closest challengers in AC Milan don’t play until Sunday, so Inter could establish a 10 point lead at the summit of Serie A before their city rivals kick off - putting real pressure on the red side of Milan in a clash they are expected to win against Parma. Inter have a similar level of opponent here, Lecce are scrapping at the bottom of Serie A and have notably only managed to win three of their 13 home matches in the Italian top flight this term. 

Inter boast the strongest away record in Serie A having won 10 of their 12 matches on the road this term. They’ve scored 24 goals across these games, which is also the best goal record away from home in Serie A. It’ll be hard for Lecce to find a way past Inter Milan in this clash, they’ve failed to score in any of the last six head to head meetings between the sides - with Inter winning all of these games.

If we put Inter’s recent disappointment in the Champions League to one side, their recent form has been really strong with Chivu’s team winning each of their last six games in Serie A, and losing just one of their last 15 games before that defeat in Norway - with this loss coming against Arsenal in the Champions League.

These sides faced off just 15 days ago with PSV coming away 4-1 winners in that clash as they progressed to the next round of the KNVB Cup. There is a massive gap in quality between PSV and the other sides in the Eredivisie, as shown by the 14 point lead they currently have at the top of the table.

PSV’s home record is particularly strong, they’ve won eight of their 11 home games in the Dutch top flight this term - losing just one of these games. Their scoring power stands out from this record, they’ve netted 36 goals across their 11 home games (3.27 per game) which is unsurprisingly the strongest home scoring record of any side in the division.

Furthermore, Heerenveen have a torrid record at the Philips Stadion with PSV remaining unbeaten in each of the last 10 head to head clashes when PSV have been the home side. Heerenveen’s record on the road this term into convincing either, they’ve only won four of their 11 away matches with just two of these games ending in draws. Given how easily PSV dispatched Heerenveen in the cup a few weeks ago, it seems likely that they come through this league clash just as comfortably.

One of Semenyo’s standout traits is his shot volume. I think this was the main motivator for Guardiola to sign Semenyo. Aside from Haaland, City don’t have that many players who regularly post high shot volumes. Foden did this for a season, but has struggled to get to that output again since which is why Semenyo has been such a valuable signing for City.

Semenyo has taken 59 shots across his 25 Premier League appearances this season, working out to an average of 2.36 shots per 90. Of these efforts, 33 have found the target (1.32 per 90) which is a very impressive shot accuracy of 56%. I can see Semenyo’s shot volume improving further the longer he is with this City side, and I anticipate him getting enough chances to have at least two shots on target here. 

Semenyo has had a shot on target in each of his last four games for Manchester City, managing to find the target twice in two of these games. Newcastle allowed Manchester City to register 12 shots on target across the two legs of their EFL Cup semi final against Guardiola’s side, with eight of these being suffered in the leg at the Etihad. 

Whilst I understand why this has been priced up as the outsider of the market, I actually think that there is a bit of value in the BTTS-Yes market here.

I very rarely consider historical head-to-head in my betting strategy, but the only times that I change that is when there is a local derby that has been played a lot of times in recent years in the same competition. Blackburn and Preston have been EFL Championship mainstays over the years, with Blackburn’s single season foray into League One in 2017/18 the only non-second tier season between the two of them in the last decade.

In that time, 15 out of 19 of these derbies have seen BTTS-Yes come in. That 79% rate is quite significant over a decent sample size, and has to come into the thinking here, especially when it is the underdog.

Looking at more recent data, Blackburn have lots of their attacking players back, and have added in attack in January with Mathias Jorgensen and Dapo Afolayan adding to fit again Andri Gudjohnsen. This made a huge difference in their 3-1 win at QPR, but it should also be noted that they still conceded over 2xG that game.

Preston have a strong away record overall this season, and have scored and conceded at over 1 goal per game away from home too.

This bet is supported by data on both sides of the equation, with Rovers doing well in winning corners at home, and Preston conceding a high number away from home.

Putting some flesh on those bones, I looked into Preston first, and they are carrying a 6.6 corners against per match record into this match in their away matches. Recently, they conceded nine to Ipswich, eight to Middlesbrough, and six to Bristol City in their last three away from home.

Blackburn have averaged 6.25 corners per match at home in the league, and although we have to have caution because they are under new management, we have given ourselves some headroom with the line chosen. They have beaten this line in their last three at home as well, winning eight corners against Sheffield Wednesday and Hull, and seven against Watford too.

Just as further fuel to the fire, Blackburn won seven corners in each of the Preston matches last season too.

The former Sheffield Wednesday wing back has been a surprising hit at Deepdale, with many fans feeling much more confident when Valentin is in the team. He has played the full 90 in Preston's last two league matches away from home, and also started the last match at home to Watford.

Valentin is averaging 1.23 fouls against him per 90 this season, this increases slightly to 1.32 per 90 when only considering away matches. Indeed, Valentin has been fouled in five of his six starts for Preston in away matches, including his last four in a row.

He is likely to be directly up against Eiran Cashin and Dapo Afolayan, the latter averages over a foul per 90 over a 50 game period.

This is a surprisingly big price for a player who averages over a foul per match since joining Blackburn, plays the full 90 minutes every game, and is coming off the back of two yellow cards in two matches.

Cashin looks to be being priced up as a central defender still, but he has been playing as a left back for Blackburn in the majority of matches he has played. New Blackburn boss Michael O’Neill plays a back three with Northern Ireland, but Rovers have been a back four side since the dismissal of Valerian Ismael, who also generally played a three at the back system.

My best guess is that Rovers will stick with the shape and most of the personnel who won at QPR last week, which will see Cashin play at left-back. He has averaged 1.32 fouls per 90 since his debut, which is a big number for this price. He has committed a foul in four of his seven starts, but in four of five as a left-back.

It’s tough to find value in City games, but Semenyo seems to be providing some since his January switch from Bournemouth. With Haaland at 1.11, Marmoush at 1.25 and Cherki at 1.28 to register 1+ shots on target, this looks rather attractive at the current price.

Semenyo has averaged 1.20 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League for City, and has had one or more shots on target in each of his games, except his debut in that poor performance against United. For The Cherries, Semenyo was averaging 1.35 shots on target per 90. He’s adapted really well from being a bit of a talisman to more of a cog in a machine, netting three times in the PL already for his new club. Going back across ‘25/26, Semenyo has had a shot on target in 21 of his 25 games.

I like focusing my shots on target picks on players who have plenty of routes to landing it. Semenyo is brilliant on both feet, he gets into the box, but he also shoots from range. All those elements combined are huge positives.

Man City should have plenty of encouragement to pick up all three points in this clash, given that Arsenal slipped up at Wolves during the week, meaning that City can close the gap at the top to just two points before Arsenal take on Tottenham in the North London Derby.

Man City have been very strong at home in the Premier League this season, winning 10 of their 13 matches at the Etihad, which is the joint best home record in the division. They’ve netted 32 goals across these games, which is also the most in the league, and only conceded eight goals - this defensive record is significant, as City had their worst ever defensive home campaign under Guardiola last season, conceding 23 goals.

City comfortably beat Newcastle over two legs in the EFL Cup semi-final which took place in January. They ran out 5-1 winners over the two legs, racing into a 3-0 lead in the first half of the second leg when Newcastle visited the Etihad. Newcastle have never won at the Etihad in Guardiola’s tenure at the club, and have lost their last six trips without even scoring a goal. 

It’s not often a selection starts by discussing a different player, one that’s not even playing - but a big hinge for this bet is the absence of Bruno Guimaraes. The Brazilian has been excellent for The Toon this season, but misses this one through injury. That means a reshuffle for Newcastle. Tonali will drop into the six, as opposed to his usual position as an eight.

Guimaraes commits a hefty 1.47 fouls per 90 and his 33 is the most in the Newcastle squad. Those fouls don’t just vanish. Yes, Tonali may foul less at 0.86 times per 90, but his position will contribute to that. He doesn’t lack aggression, and playing in that deeper role in midweek, he committed two fouls - against a far weaker side than City.

He’ll also likely come across City’s most fouled players like Rodri (1.72) and Foden (1.31). Nico O’Reilly is another interesting addition to the mix, he’s drawn four fouls in two games since being moved into midfield.

Newcastle have scored 13 of their 37 Premier League goals from set pieces this season (35%), indicating that corners and other set plays are a key part of their attacking approach.

Newcastle are averaging 6.92 corners per game in the Premier League, which is the highest average of any side in the top flight this term. This metric drops slightly, but is still convincing, when looking at their away games, in which they’re averaging 6.38 corners per game. No side has won more corners on the road in the Premier League this season than Newcastle, setting them up for a healthy corner count here.

Newcastle have managed 4+ corners in all three of the meetings between these sides this term, including a tally of five when the sides last clashed in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final. If Newcastle are going to have joy here, it’s likely to come from set pieces - the threats of Thiaw and Burn can cause City problems.

This is a very interesting game in the Eredivisie, as these are two sides that could still find themselves in either the European battle, or the relegation race, depending on how this result goes.

The sides are level on points in the Eredivisie and are only separated by goal difference ahead of this clash - the pair are only seven points clear of the drop zone, but also only five points away from a potential spot in the Conference League next season.

Fortuna Sittard have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches ahead of this clash - notably only winning one of these games, with their 11 home matches producing 36 goals (3.27 per game).

Excelsior’s defensive record on the road is of particular concern here, they’ve conceded 23 goals across their 11 away matches in the Eredivisie this term (2.09 per game), only three sides in the Dutch top flight have conceded more goals on the road this season.

Elche are the only side in LaLiga yet to win an away game, setting Athletic Bilbao up nicely to record their seventh home win of the campaign. It’s not as though Elche have been grinding out draws on the road either - they’ve lost seven of their 11 matches away from home in LaLiga this season, conceding 22 goals across these games.

Elche’s recent form has also been pretty poor with the away side coming into this clash having failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions, losing three of these games. Athletic Bilbao have been steady without being spectacular this term, but they should have the confidence and momentum to take advantage of an Elche side who are poor on the road and haven’t been able to create any momentum across recent games.

Athletic Bilbao have won three of their last five matches ahead of this clash, and have avoided defeat in eight of their 12 home matches this term. This should be enough for the home side to collect all three points in this clash, against the worst away side in the Spanish top flight this season.

Coventry are the top scorers in the Championship this season having netted 66 goals across their 32 matches (2.06 per game). They come into this clash having earned a morale boosting 3-1 win over Middlesbrough at home, having scored the first goal in that clash.

Coventry tend to be pretty strong when it comes to going ahead in games. They’ve struck first in 21 of their 32 Championship matches this term (65%) - which is the best record in the division. Frank Lampard’s side are just as comfortable when it comes to finding the back of the net on the road as they are in front of their home fans, netting 32 goals across their 16 away matches this season (2.0 per game).

Coventry have landed the first blow in four of their last five matches in the Championship, with the exception of a 0-0 draw against Oxford. West Brom have failed to score at all in three of their last five matches across all competitions, conceding first in all three games in which they allowed the opposition to strike.

Lincoln travel to Mansfield in excellent form having avoided defeat in each of their last five matches across all competitions - winning four of these games. They’ve only conceded two goals across these matches, so Mansfield may even struggle to get on the scoresheet altogether, one of those was the first goal against Plymouth - though I think we can assign that as an anomaly seeing as Lincoln eventually ran out 4-1 winners.

Lincoln have scored the first goal in 22 of their 32 matches in League One this season (68%) and boast a strong travelling record to extend this record. Lincoln have won seven of their 15 matches on the road this term, losing just four of these games. They’ve only conceded 16 goals across these games, strengthening the case for an outright clean sheet for the away side in this encounter. Only Cardiff (12) have kept more clean sheets than Lincoln in League One this term (11).

I suspect that Mansfield’s main focus for the season now will be on their FA Cup tie against Arsenal in a few weeks. They are quite far adrift of the playoff spots in League One, and also have a five point buffer to the drop zone - so this campaign is likely to end with a mid table finish for the home side here. They conceded after 17 minutes when these sides clashed earlier in the season, and look to be susceptible to the same result here. 

If you’re ever looking for me, you can find me checking the prices on Frank Onyeka for fouls/to be fouled. During his time in the Premier League, he has always been a player I kept on my radar. Less so as his playing time decreased at Brentford, but now he’s here to add some steel to Cov, and that’s exactly what we’re looking for.

Onyeka made his debut in midweek; he made three fouls and was carded, and he was also fouled five times. A huge EIGHT foul involvements.

He’s barely played for the Bees this season, but in his limited minutes, he has averaged 3.00 fouls committed per 90, and 3.00 fouls drawn per 90.

His last consistent run of football came at FC Augsburg on loan. In his 31 appearances in the Bundesliga, he committed an average of 1.64 fouls per 90 and drew an average of 2.58, and nobody drew more in the entire squad that season.

The American marksman was sensational in midweek as Cov claimed a huge three points against Middlesbrough, which saw Haji Wright help himself to a hat-trick.

Wright has netted 13 times this season, 11 from open play and twice from the spot - as he is the side's designated penalty taker.

His shots on target record is solid, at 1.34 per 90, but I think taking the shots route provides a little bit better value. 

He’s had a massive 76 shots this season, an average of 3.65 per 90 - so comfortably above the line we’re looking for.

Of course, this landed on Monday. In fact, he had five shots, which followed on from his haul of six in the previous match against Oxford.

Now, Cov haven’t been in the best form, but West Brom are an absolute shocker at the moment and are 11 matches without a league win. I’d expect the visitors to have plenty of opportunities, and Wright will be the focal point of it all.

West Brom have been pretty firm-handed lately, committing 11+ fouls in five of their last six. Two of them saw them make 13 fouls, and their last match against Birmingham saw them commit a hefty 16 fouls.

Rudoni is really key to Coventry’s offensive output. A wonderfully creative midfielder, sides know they have to shut him down to have a chance of keeping the Sky Blues at bay.

Rudoni has drawn an average of 1.43 fouls per 90, which instantly drew me to this bet - and at that average, I’d have expected this to be closer to the 1.2 mark. 

This selection has landed in nine of Rudoni’s last 12 appearances, and he was impeded twice in the victory over Middlesbrough.

He’ll likely be marshalled by the very combative Jayson Molumby, who averages 1.28 fouls per 90 for the Baggies.

Molumby was actually sent off when the sides met earlier in the season as well.

Only Aune Heggebo has committed more total fouls in the West Brom squad than Callum Styles this season. The Hungarian international has made 36 fouls for the Baggies, an average of 1.36 per 90 minutes.

He was rested against Norwich in the cup, so will be fresh here, and he’s a regular for 90 minutes - he’s played 90 in 14 of his last 17 starts.

Styles has primarily operated at left back this season. More traditionally a bustling midfielder, he’s taken his aggression and combative nature into a wide area.

He’s made 1+ fouls in 12 of his last 13 appearances. When playing left back, he’s made at least one foul in 18 of his 23 appearances.

Playing there will put him up against Tatsuhiro Sakamoto. The incredibly tricky wide man is very adept at drawing fouls. He’s impeded 1.72 times per 90 on average and is just 1.14 to draw a foul in this match.

Sakamoto has drawn a foul in five of his last six games, in four of those, he was fouled twice, and that’s despite three of them seeing him play between 20 and 30 minutes. He has started the last three, though, so is likely to be Styles’ direct opponent.

Rogers is the clear standout for Villa. He’s now on 17 goal involvements this season, split between 10 goals and seven assists, effective at both creating and finishing chances.

Leeds have one of the leakiest defences in the league, conceding the 3rd-most goals (45), while Villa come in as odds-on favourites.

Before the Newcastle game, he’d registered a shot on target in nine consecutive matches. He should get chances here — Leeds concede an average of 4.19 shots on target per 90.

Rogers scored twice the last time he faced Leeds.

I’m on it personally.

Palmer is officially back. He’s recorded a goal or assist in three of his last four starts, including a goal and assist in his last game (vs Leeds). Before that, he scored a hat-trick in just 38 minutes against Wolves.

He looks back to his best and didn’t feature in the FA Cup, so he’ll come in fully charged off the back of two Man of the Match performances.

Even in a 45-minute stint away to Napoli he managed two assists, and prior to that he scored at home against Brentford. He now faces a Burnley side, with Chelsea massive odds-on favourites, priced at 1.18 to take all three points.

Huge fan of Palmer, so I’m on this.

He’s catching up to Haaland in the Golden Boot race, sitting on 17, with Haaland currently on 22. Nobody else really comes close, the 3rd-highest scorer in the league has “only” 10 goals.

He’s hit a slight blip by his own standards, but the run has been tough. In his last five games he’s faced Chelsea, Forest, Villa, Newcastle and Arsenal. He scored vs Newcastle and even managed six shots against Arsenal, who have the best defence in the league.

He now faces a Brighton side he scored against in the reverse fixture. This time he’s at home, where he’s recorded a goal or assist in half of his matches. Brentford are odds-on favourites to beat Brighton, and statistically, if anyone is most likely to get a goal involvement, it’s Thiago.

West Ham progressed in the FA Cup last time out with a victory over Burton Albion. It wasn’t the most convincing performance, requiring extra time, but the Hammers were able to get the job done. They come into this clash in solid form, having lost just one of their last seven matches in all competitions.

Bournemouth are also on a positive run, unbeaten in six league matches, and they were able to secure a 2-1 win over Everton last time out. However, defensive issues have persisted. The Cherries have kept just one clean sheet in that spell and have conceded 31 goals in 13 Premier League away matches this season - only Burnley have shipped more.

West Ham haven’t been much better at the back this campaign, with 49 league goals conceded. Both sides are more effective going forward than they are at defending, which makes goals a target.

The reverse fixture between these sides earlier in the season was an entertaining 2-2 draw that produced 11 corners in total.

Both sides had good chances, but Bournemouth were unfortunate to only leave with a single point, given that they racked up 28 shots worth 4.05 xG. They were the dominant side, accounting for nine out of eleven corners in the match, and they were able to cut through West Ham easily. 

This encounter should be more balanced, with West Ham playing in front of their home crowd and expected to take a more proactive approach. The Hammers are averaging 6.0 corners per game at the London Stadium this season, compared to just 4.6 on their travels.

Both sides will be hopeful of securing a positive result on Saturday evening, so we could get quite an open contest, with chances at both ends of the pitch.

Crysencio Summerville has been central to West Ham’s recent resurgence and has locked down a starting role on the flank. It was his stellar performance against QPR that seemed to be a turning point for the Hammers - Summerville opened the scoring in that game, before providing the assist for the winning goal in extra time. 

The Dutchman followed that up by scoring in four consecutive league matches, but that streak ended last week against Man United. He still registered a shot on target in that game, but was denied by Senne Lammens. 

However, the purple patch resumed against Burton Albion last weekend - Summerville was introduced after 83 minutes, and went on to score the decisive goal in extra time. That booked West Ham a spot in the FA Cup round of 16, and they owe a lot of credit to Summerville.

Lewis Cook, Tyler Adams, and Ryan Christie have all struggled with injuries this season, but Alex Scott has stepped in their absence and established himself as a key figure in midfield.

Even with all of them back fit for this clash, Alex Scott looks set to retain his spot. He has started each of the last ten matches for Bournemouth, and played the full 90 in eight of those. 

In that time, he has drawn a total of 20 fouls and has landed this selection in seven of those matches. The 22-year-old likes to have the ball at his feet and usually dares to try to beat his marker. Scott is adept at drawing free-kicks in midfield, either so Bournemouth can lump the ball into the box, or just to alleviate the pressure on his side.

He draws a good matchup here against a West Ham side that has played with more intensity in recent weeks.