Lincoln struck in the 93rd minute last time out to earn a 2-2 draw against Huddersfield on the road, extending their unbeaten run in League One to 21 matches. This brilliant run of form has seen them rise to top of the pile in League One, boasting a five point buffer to Cardiff in second who had led the way for a large chunk of the season.

Lincoln’s home record has been particularly impressive this term with 14 wins across their 19 games in front of their own supporters - losing just one of these matches. They’ve scored 43 goals across these games (2.26 per game), which is more than any other side at home in League One this term.

It’s hard to see how Rotherham battle against this dominance seeing as they have the worst away record of any side in League One this term. Rotherham have only won three of their 18 matches on the road this season - losing 13 of these games. They’ve only scored 13 goals across these matches, exposing a key point of difference between these sides, this is the joint lowest goal tally in the road in League One this term.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced six goals as Thun came away 4-2 winners as the home side over Zurich. That clash saw a combined xG of 5.01, with Thun making up most of this (3.66), but Zurich also managing to contribute (1.35), which is pretty reflective of how Thun’s season has unfolded so far.

They’ve been one of the stories of the season across Europe as a newly promoted side looking to win the title in the top flight at the first time of asking. Clean sheets haven’t really been their priority this term, with only six across their 30 games in the Swiss Super League (20%) and each of their last five matches across all competitions seeing 3+ goals.

Zurich have also seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, losing four of these games. Zurich’s 15 home games have produced 56 goals in the Swiss Super League (3.73 per game), so there should be plenty of scope for both sides to contribute to an exciting encounter here.

Chelsea come into this game pretty bruised from a brutal week in which they lost three games in a row with Newcastle delivering one blow and PSG adding a few more with an 8-2 win on aggregate against the Blues to knock them out of the Champions League.

Chelsea have struggled to keep clean sheets since Liam Rosenior arrived at the club, keeping just three shutouts across his 18 games in charge at Chelsea. They now travel to face an Everton side that they have beaten just once on the road across their last eight away trips against the Toffees.

David Moyes’ side is perfectly set up to hurt Chelsea, they will have the fitness advantage on the Blues having not played in midweek and can expose one of Chelsea’s main weaknesses this season which has been conceding shots and chances from set pieces.

Everton have scored 18 goals across their 15 home games in the Premier League this season. This isn’t a crazy record, but this angle leans more on Chelsea being vulnerable at the back which Everton are sure to prey on with David Moyes’ side having the opportunity to close the gap to Chelsea to just three points with a win in this match.

This is a huge game in the Eerste Divisie with Waalwijk looking to maintain their spot in the playoffs while Den Bosch look to eat into some of the four point gap which is keeping them from a playoff spot.

Waalwijk managed to earn a 2-2 draw on the road when these sides last met with that game seeing 26 match shots and 10 match shots on target. BTTS is quite common when these sides meet, with each of the last four head to head clashes seeing both sides find the back of the net.

Waalwijk have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a 2-2 draw against Almere last time out which has dampened their playoff push slightly and provided encouragement to the likes of Den Bosch - who have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Furthermore, Den Bosch have seen 58 goals across their 16 away matches in the Eerste Divisie this season - working out to an average of 3.6 goals per game.

Diego Gomez is a player who frequently draws the attention of referees, and I would expect that to be the case when Brighton host Liverpool on Saturday. The Paraguayan has been a consistent offender in the Premier League this season, averaging 2.04 fouls per game. That figure has crept up in recent weeks, with Gomez conceding 3, 2, 4 and 4 fouls across his last 4 outings.

Gomez ranks fourth of all Premier League players for total fouls committed this term, only behind Joao Gomes, Igor Thiago and Elliot Anderson.

What’s more, the 22-year-old has picked up a yellow card in each of his previous 2 appearances, taking his total to a sizeable 8 cautions in 27 Premier League games for the Seagulls this season. The fact that Gomez committed 2 fouls against Liverpool in this season’s reverse fixture only adds to the appeal of backing him to do so again on Saturday.

Milos Kerkez has drawn 23 fouls in 27 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.06 per 90). The Hungarian is currently on a run of winning fouls having drawn at least one in 10 of his last 11 matches in all competitions.

In his last four games, Kerkez has been fouled twice, including both legs of Liverpool’s Champions League tie against Galatasaray.

The ex-Bournemouth full-back is growing in confidence as a Liverpool player, with Kerkez picking up an assist in his last meeting with Brighton in the FA Cup last month.
Kerkez has been fouled in both of Liverpool’s matches against Brighton this season, once in the Premier League and twice in the FA Cup.

Diego Gomez racked up four fouls in that match against the Gunners, and he accounted for one of four Brighton cards. The Paraguay international repeated that feat against Sunderland last time out, again recording four infringements. 

Gomez is averaging an eye-catching 2.37 fouls per 90 for Brighton this season across all competitions, which is the highest of any player in the squad.  In fact, he ranks fourth of all Premier League players for total fouls committed this term, only behind Joao Gomes, Igor Thiago, and Elliot Anderson. 

Gomez has accrued nine yellow cards in 32 appearances this season, and two of those bookings have come against Liverpool. He was called for two infringements against the Reds in the Premier League and three fouls in the FA Cup. He is incredibly aggressive in his duels and should have plenty of defensive work to get through against the Reds again here.

Even though his data is not as enticing as Diego Gomez's, Hugo Ekitike is another player who has been amongst the fouls this season for Liverpool.

The Frenchman is averaging 1.75 fouls per 90 across all competitions in the Premier League, rising to 2.0 when playing away, and he has committed multiple infringements in three of his last four appearances. 

Ekitike should be directly up against Jan Paul Van Hecke this weekend, which is a matchup to keep tabs on. The centre back is averaging 1.23 fouls drawn per 90 at the Amex this season, which is impressively high for a centre back, and he has landed this selection in nine of his 13 starts in total. 

This bet landed in both head-to-head meetings between these sides this season, highlighting how the Dutchman usually goes down easily under contact to alleviate the pressure on his side.

Brighton’s form has started to pick up in recent weeks, as they have won three of their last four matches. That includes a 1-0 win against Sunderland last weekend, and the Seagulls have had plenty of time since then to rest and prepare for this match against Liverpool. 

Liverpool were involved in midweek Champions League action, and they were destructive in the final third. Arne Slot’s men racked up 32 shots worth 4.88 xG against Galatasaray, and 16 of their attempts hit the target. The Reds have won both head-to-head meetings against Brighton this season, which will also give them confidence. 

However, both of those matches were at Anfield, and the Seagulls were unfortunate not to score in either. They managed 14 shots worth 1.9 xG in the Premier League meeting in December. Fabian Hurzeler rotated his side for the FA Cup fixture, but Brighton still managed 18 shots and were denied by three saves from Allison.

On home turf, Brighton will hope to be more clinical in the final third, especially considering BTTS had landed in each of the last six head-to-head encounters before this season.

Brighton even managed to come away with a 3-2 win when these sides last met at the Amex Stadium. Allison put in an exceptional performance in between the sticks for Liverpool in that game, and he racked up nine saves to prevent the scoreline from getting out of hand. 

The Brazilian had very little to do against Galatasaray on Wednesday night, but he accrued six saves in Liverpool’s last league game against Spurs. 

Brighton are forcing 3.11 saves per game from the opposing goalkeeper this season, and this selection has landed in five of their last six matches. They only failed to hit this mark against Arsenal in that stretch, but David Raya still had to make two saves, so it went extremely close. 

Enzo Fernandez fuelled speculation about his Chelsea future following Chelsea’s 8-2 aggregate loss to PSG in the Champions League, with the midfielder claiming that he ‘doesn’t know’ what the future holds for him.

I’m not surprised that we’re seeing players like Fernandez consider their Chelsea future. The project looks like a mess at the moment - but there are quality players within it, and Fernandez is one of those who may be starting to lose a bit of confidence in the project he signed up for.

Liam Rosenior sees Fernandez as a more advanced player, with the former Strasbourg boss often playing a double pivot of Santos and Caicedo behind Fernandez, and even playing the Argentine on the left at times to disguise the role of Cole Palmer, which has had mixed results.

Only Palmer (9) and Joao Pedro (14) have scored more Premier League goals for Chelsea this season than Fernandez (8), with this tally representing his best goalscoring record in the Premier League since joining the Blues. Fernandez is just as likely to pick up a card, with only Moises Caicedo (9) picking up more yellow cards than Fernandez (8) in the Premier League this season for Chelsea.

I thought Dewsbury-Hall was a good squad option for Chelsea in his one season at the club, and he has developed further into one of Everton’s key players.

I think he’ll be motivated to get on the scoresheet against his former club, and is notably Everton’s joint top scorer in the Premier League with six goals to his name. This is particularly notable as Dewsbury-Hall missed quite a few games in the middle of the season due to injury, so he has the best goalscoring record at Everton if we go by goals per game.

Dewsbury-Hall has taken 29 shots in the Premier League this season (1.36 per 90), seeing 10 of these efforts find the target (0.47 per 90). These aren’t standout numbers, but I think there is enough evidence to suggest that they will rise here given the issues that Chelsea have been having at the back under Liam Rosenior - keeping just three clean sheets across 18 matches.

Tim Iroegbunam is one of the most aggressive midfielders I’ve seen over the last few seasons in the Premier League, and his card record matches up with this claim. He’s collected eight yellow cards across just 13 starts in the Premier League this term, which is more than any other Everton player.

This is quite a small sample size, but his card record remains convincing when looking at it across previous seasons. Iroegbunam picked up four yellow cards across just 564 minutes of action in the Premier League last term - committing 15 fouls across these games (2.39 fouls committed per 90).

He’s been just as aggressive when looking over his foul numbers this term, committing 22 fouls across his 13 starts in the Premier League (1.79 per 90). This consistent high foul rate always gives Iroegbunam a solid chance of picking up a caution, and I anticipate his foul numbers remaining high here.

Corners have been the common trend in the Premier League this season, with this campaign seeing more goals from non-penalty set pieces than we have in any of the last 10 Premier League seasons. This works out to just shy of 30% of the goals in the division being scored from non-penalty set pieces, making backing corners an appealing angle in Premier League games at the moment.

The most recent head-to-head meeting between these sides saw 11 match corners, with Everton contributing seven of these. I think we’ll see David Moyes’ side utilise this avenue again here. Chelsea have been weak from these situations all season, mainly because their squad doesn’t have the appropriate physical profiles to deal with some of the aerial threats in the Premier League.

Everton are seeing 9.47 match corners per game in the Premier League this season, with their home games seeing this metric rise slightly to 9.60 corners per game. Chelsea are seeing 10.30 match corners per game in the Premier League this season, with this tally staying pretty consistent when looking at their away matches this term (9.80 per game).

Chelsea come into this one battered and bruised after a brutal week that saw them lose three straight games - Newcastle delivering the first blow, and PSG piling on with an emphatic 8-2 aggregate win to knock the Blues out of the Champions League.

Clean sheets have been hard to come by since Liam Rosenior took charge, with Chelsea managing just three shutouts in his 18 games at the helm. Now they travel to Goodison Park to face an Everton side they’ve beaten only once in their last eight away visits.

David Moyes has his team set up perfectly to exploit Chelsea’s vulnerabilities. Well-rested after a free midweek, Everton hold a clear fitness edge and are primed to target one of Chelsea’s biggest weaknesses this season: defending set pieces. The Blues have consistently conceded chances from dead-ball situations, and Moyes will be keen to take full advantage.

Everton have netted 18 goals in 15 home league games this season, nothing extraordinary, but the real threat lies in Chelsea’s fragile backline. With a win, the Toffees could cut the gap to Chelsea to just three points, and you get the sense they’ll have plenty of encouragement to get on the scoresheet. 

I don’t know how many times I'll have to write about Chelsea’s ill-discipline before something changes at Stamford Bridge, but for now, backing Chelsea cards and fouls remain a solid angle given the petulance and frustration that is rife in the Chelsea camp.

Chelsea committed 13 fouls in the initial league meeting between these sides, picking up one caution in that game - though they were fortunate to avoid a second with that foul count. The Blues have picked up 69 yellow cards across their 30 games in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 2.3 cards per game.

Only Brighton and Tottenham (74) have picked up more yellow cards than Chelsea in the Premier League this season, with Chelsea topping the yellow card rankings in each of the last two Premier League seasons.

I can see frustration creeping into Chelsea’s game here; they don’t fare well in these sorts of environments, and they also are at constant risk of picking up a red card, having collected more than any other side in the Premier League this season (7). 

Joao Pedro has improved his shot output since Liam Rosenior took charge of the Blues, with the development of Joao Pedro as a proper striker being one of the few successes that Liam Rosenior has had at Chelsea so far.

Only Erling Haaland has scored more non-penalty goals than Joao Pedro in the Premier League this season, dispelling the worry that many had when Chelsea signed him that he wouldn’t be able to provide enough goals for the Blues as their main striker.

Joao Pedro had four shots in Chelsea’s 3-0 defeat to PSG in the Champions League during the week, seeing one of these attempts find the target. He’s taken 61 shots across his 26 starts in the Premier League this season for Chelsea (2.45 per 90), with 26 of these efforts finding the target (1.04 per 90).