Amad Diallo isn’t always the first name that comes to mind when looking for a serial fouler, but his record is actually quite strong for a winger - and I've noted how clumsy he can be with his challenges.

Manchester United committed 15 fouls in the most recent head to head meeting between these sides, with Amad Diallo committing two fouls - and dragging down Truffert with one of these challenges. 

Amad has committed 17 fouls across his 21 Premier League appearances this season, working out to an average of 0.84 fouls committed per 90. His recent foul record may look a little off putting, but he has the perfect opponents here to force him into committing at least one foul here.

Amad will face up against Truffert and Rayan down that side of the pitch. I’ll expand on Truffert a bit more below, but Rayan has been brilliant since coming to the Premier League, notably winning four fouls across his six starts (0.67 fouls won per 90). 

Adrien Truffert is a really exciting fullback to watch, a brief glance at his heat map this season will show you just how often he is given encouragement to push forward with Bournemouth often opting for a bold approach when playing in front of their own fans.

There’s actually a bit of value with this as a single when compared to other bookmakers, who have Truffert at 1.36 to win a foul here. Manchester United committed 15 fouls in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, and may have to stop Truffert progressing down that side of the pitch again with his direct opponents being Amad Diallo and Diogo Dalot.

Diallo and Dalot combine to commit 1.76 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, so should offer a decent foul threat to Truffert between them when the Bournemouth fullback inevitably looks to bomb forward. Truffert has won 23 fouls across his 30 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 0.78 fouls won per 90.

Lens boast the best home record in Ligue 1 this season, winning 11 of their 13 matches and netting 26 goals in the process (2.0 per game). They are still in the title race in Ligue 1, which is some achievement - given that PSG usually have a 10 point lead at this stage of the campaign in the French top flight.

Lens can go above PSG with a win here, though Luis Enrique’s side do have two games in hand to reinstate their current lead at the top of the table. Lens scored twice when these sides met earlier in the season, coming away 2-1 winners as the away side with their xG of 2.05 offering plenty of encouragement when looking to back Lens for two goals again here.

Angers have struggled on the road in Ligue 1 this term, winning just three of their 13 away matches in the French top flight. They’ve conceded 17 goals across these matches, and notably come into this fixture having lost four of their last five matches across all competitions - conceding 2+ goals in three of these games.

The first meeting between these two sides this season was a crazy one, ending in a 4-4 draw. With a combined xG of 5.34 from 39 shots. Based on this evidence, we could be in for another lively clash with goals looking likely at both ends.

Bournemouth tend to play a high-risk game, which is why that chaotic scoreline at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign wasn't a complete shock. The Cherries have toned things down a little in recent weeks, with three goalless draws in their last five outings - but their overall home record still tells a different story. Across 15 matches at the Vitality Stadium, there have been 36 goals, averaging 2.4 per game.

That said, it’s hard to see Bournemouth keeping United out here. Michael Carrick has done well to organise the side, but Manchester United are still struggling for clean sheets. Both teams have scored in four of their last five matches in all competitions and with United pushing for a Champions League spot, that trend could easily continue.

Ben Whiteman was a major part of that. Whilst he committed no fouls in the match, he still went into three tackles on the night. The line for a repeat of that seems quite high, especially given his recent numbers, and also the predicted lineup for Preston.

The predicted team news has Whiteman in the midfield with Alfie Devine and Jordan Thompson. Whilst Thompson tends to be quite a high fouler, he isn’t actually a high-volume tackler. Thompson is down at 0.88 tackles per 90 minutes, whilst Alfie Devine is mainly in the team for his athleticism and on-ball attacking capabilities; he is at 1.5 tackles per 90. This makes Whiteman, at 1.79 tackles per 90, the most prolific tackler in the Preston midfield, if the team news is accurate.

Whiteman has hit this line in two of his last three matches, so he has recent form in being able to make this line pay out. Taking a longer term view, he has hit the line in four of his last ten starts, a 40% ratio, whereas the odds on Bet365 suggest a 27% chance, so we are getting a decent margin on a 10-match sample size.

The margins look to be bigger on the Bocat side of the double, though. The Stoke left-back has been attracting fouls very regularly on his return to the side.

He has been fouled seven times in his last three starts, hitting this line on each occasion. This is obviously a small sample size, but it perhaps also represents a bit of a shift in the way that Stoke are approaching their matches at the moment. They have scored six in their last two, and have been fouled 13 and 14 times in those matches, against a season average of 10 fouls against them per match.

Extending Bocat’s sample out to his last 10 starts for Stoke, he has hit the two or more fouls drawn line in five of those, an obvious 50% hit rate. The odds here imply a 33% chance of landing, so again, there is a decent margin in these odds for us.

It isn’t easy to work out who Preston will have lined up against Bocat directly. Potentially Pol Valentin or Odel Offiah, both of whom run at around one foul per 90. Daniel Jebbison could be tasked with covering that area from a wide forward position, too, and he is a more regular fouler at 1.78 per 90.

Alex Jimenez was dropped to the bench last weekend, but the Spaniard has been a regular at right back for Bournemouth in recent weeks and should reclaim his starting spot here over Adam Smith. Jimenez has proven his versatility this season, as he has featured in more advanced areas, but the 20-year-old has dropped into a more natural fullback role since the emergence of Rayan. 

Because of that, Jimenez should be directly up against Matheus Cunha on the flank on Friday night, which is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Brazilian international is averaging 2.17 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, and he was fouled five times against Newcastle in his last away outing. 

Jimenez is averaging 1.45 fouls per 90 on home turf this season, and he has landed this selection in eight of his eleven home starts.

Bournemouth had a bit of an injury crisis in midfield when these sides last met, as Lewis Cook was suspended, Ryan Christie was injured, and Tyler Adams suffered a knock just eight minutes into the match. That meant Marcus Tavernier had to play deeper than usual, but he was still a standout performer at Old Trafford, finishing the game with a goal and an assist to his name. 

Tavernier had four shots in total, with three of those efforts hitting the target, and he has again been heavily involved since returning from injury. Tavernier has landed this bet in each of his last three starts, with 13 shots in that time.

Even though just 32% of his efforts in the Premier League have hit the target, Tavernier’s shot volume tends to be high, and he is averaging 2.48 shots per 90 in the league. He is the designated free-kick taker for the Cherries, and could also be on penalties. 

There were plenty of chances available at either end of the field in that game, with neither side offering much defensive resistance.

The hosts generated 3.4 xG from their 25 shots, while Bournemouth managed 14 attempts at goal themselves. Both goalkeepers were also kept busy, finishing the game with five saves apiece, highlighting how there could have been even more goals. 

That game had a bit of everything - goals, cards, and even corners. There were nine in total, with five for Man United and four for Bournemouth. Andoni Iraiola's side have been a team to target for corners all season, as they can be quite direct in their approach, and often look to play through wide areas.

They are averaging 10.9 corners per game in the Premier League this season, with 5.7 for and 5.2 against. This selection has landed in 12 of their last 13 league matches.

Bournemouth have been stalemate specialists over the last few weeks, as they have drawn each of their last four matches coming into this clash. Three of those games have seen no goals at all for either side, which is unusual, given how Bournemouth games are usually quite open and entertaining to watch. 

However, Bournemouth have still been able to create some good chances, and it seems like the goals will start flowing again soon. They somehow failed to score against Burnley last time out, despite registering 22 shots worth 2.55 xG. 

BTTS has landed in 12 of Man United’s last 13 away games, making this an excellent opportunity for Bournemouth to break their duck. However, keeping Man United at bay has proven to be no easy task, as they have scored in every game since November. Also, it finished 4-4 when these sides met in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford.

Diego Gomez is a player who frequently draws the attention of referees, and I would expect that to be the case when Brighton host Liverpool on Saturday. The Paraguayan has been a consistent offender in the Premier League this season, averaging 2.04 fouls per game. That figure has crept up in recent weeks, with Gomez conceding 3, 2, 4 and 4 fouls across his last 4 outings.

Gomez ranks fourth of all Premier League players for total fouls committed this term, only behind Joao Gomes, Igor Thiago and Elliot Anderson.

What’s more, the 22-year-old has picked up a yellow card in each of his previous 2 appearances, taking his total to a sizeable 8 cautions in 27 Premier League games for the Seagulls this season. The fact that Gomez committed 2 fouls against Liverpool in this season’s reverse fixture only adds to the appeal of backing him to do so again on Saturday.

Milos Kerkez has drawn 23 fouls in 27 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.06 per 90). The Hungarian is currently on a run of winning fouls having drawn at least one in 10 of his last 11 matches in all competitions.

In his last four games, Kerkez has been fouled twice, including both legs of Liverpool’s Champions League tie against Galatasaray.

The ex-Bournemouth full-back is growing in confidence as a Liverpool player, with Kerkez picking up an assist in his last meeting with Brighton in the FA Cup last month.
Kerkez has been fouled in both of Liverpool’s matches against Brighton this season, once in the Premier League and twice in the FA Cup.

Diego Gomez racked up four fouls in that match against the Gunners, and he accounted for one of four Brighton cards. The Paraguay international repeated that feat against Sunderland last time out, again recording four infringements. 

Gomez is averaging an eye-catching 2.37 fouls per 90 for Brighton this season across all competitions, which is the highest of any player in the squad.  In fact, he ranks fourth of all Premier League players for total fouls committed this term, only behind Joao Gomes, Igor Thiago, and Elliot Anderson. 

Gomez has accrued nine yellow cards in 32 appearances this season, and two of those bookings have come against Liverpool. He was called for two infringements against the Reds in the Premier League and three fouls in the FA Cup. He is incredibly aggressive in his duels and should have plenty of defensive work to get through against the Reds again here.

Even though his data is not as enticing as Diego Gomez's, Hugo Ekitike is another player who has been amongst the fouls this season for Liverpool.

The Frenchman is averaging 1.75 fouls per 90 across all competitions in the Premier League, rising to 2.0 when playing away, and he has committed multiple infringements in three of his last four appearances. 

Ekitike should be directly up against Jan Paul Van Hecke this weekend, which is a matchup to keep tabs on. The centre back is averaging 1.23 fouls drawn per 90 at the Amex this season, which is impressively high for a centre back, and he has landed this selection in nine of his 13 starts in total. 

This bet landed in both head-to-head meetings between these sides this season, highlighting how the Dutchman usually goes down easily under contact to alleviate the pressure on his side.

Brighton’s form has started to pick up in recent weeks, as they have won three of their last four matches. That includes a 1-0 win against Sunderland last weekend, and the Seagulls have had plenty of time since then to rest and prepare for this match against Liverpool. 

Liverpool were involved in midweek Champions League action, and they were destructive in the final third. Arne Slot’s men racked up 32 shots worth 4.88 xG against Galatasaray, and 16 of their attempts hit the target. The Reds have won both head-to-head meetings against Brighton this season, which will also give them confidence. 

However, both of those matches were at Anfield, and the Seagulls were unfortunate not to score in either. They managed 14 shots worth 1.9 xG in the Premier League meeting in December. Fabian Hurzeler rotated his side for the FA Cup fixture, but Brighton still managed 18 shots and were denied by three saves from Allison.

On home turf, Brighton will hope to be more clinical in the final third, especially considering BTTS had landed in each of the last six head-to-head encounters before this season.

Brighton even managed to come away with a 3-2 win when these sides last met at the Amex Stadium. Allison put in an exceptional performance in between the sticks for Liverpool in that game, and he racked up nine saves to prevent the scoreline from getting out of hand. 

The Brazilian had very little to do against Galatasaray on Wednesday night, but he accrued six saves in Liverpool’s last league game against Spurs. 

Brighton are forcing 3.11 saves per game from the opposing goalkeeper this season, and this selection has landed in five of their last six matches. They only failed to hit this mark against Arsenal in that stretch, but David Raya still had to make two saves, so it went extremely close. 

Lincoln struck in the 93rd minute last time out to earn a 2-2 draw against Huddersfield on the road, extending their unbeaten run in League One to 21 matches. This brilliant run of form has seen them rise to top of the pile in League One, boasting a five point buffer to Cardiff in second who had led the way for a large chunk of the season.

Lincoln’s home record has been particularly impressive this term with 14 wins across their 19 games in front of their own supporters - losing just one of these matches. They’ve scored 43 goals across these games (2.26 per game), which is more than any other side at home in League One this term.

It’s hard to see how Rotherham battle against this dominance seeing as they have the worst away record of any side in League One this term. Rotherham have only won three of their 18 matches on the road this season - losing 13 of these games. They’ve only scored 13 goals across these matches, exposing a key point of difference between these sides, this is the joint lowest goal tally in the road in League One this term.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced six goals as Thun came away 4-2 winners as the home side over Zurich. That clash saw a combined xG of 5.01, with Thun making up most of this (3.66), but Zurich also managing to contribute (1.35), which is pretty reflective of how Thun’s season has unfolded so far.

They’ve been one of the stories of the season across Europe as a newly promoted side looking to win the title in the top flight at the first time of asking. Clean sheets haven’t really been their priority this term, with only six across their 30 games in the Swiss Super League (20%) and each of their last five matches across all competitions seeing 3+ goals.

Zurich have also seen 3+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, losing four of these games. Zurich’s 15 home games have produced 56 goals in the Swiss Super League (3.73 per game), so there should be plenty of scope for both sides to contribute to an exciting encounter here.

Chelsea come into this game pretty bruised from a brutal week in which they lost three games in a row with Newcastle delivering one blow and PSG adding a few more with an 8-2 win on aggregate against the Blues to knock them out of the Champions League.

Chelsea have struggled to keep clean sheets since Liam Rosenior arrived at the club, keeping just three shutouts across his 18 games in charge at Chelsea. They now travel to face an Everton side that they have beaten just once on the road across their last eight away trips against the Toffees.

David Moyes’ side is perfectly set up to hurt Chelsea, they will have the fitness advantage on the Blues having not played in midweek and can expose one of Chelsea’s main weaknesses this season which has been conceding shots and chances from set pieces.

Everton have scored 18 goals across their 15 home games in the Premier League this season. This isn’t a crazy record, but this angle leans more on Chelsea being vulnerable at the back which Everton are sure to prey on with David Moyes’ side having the opportunity to close the gap to Chelsea to just three points with a win in this match.

This is a huge game in the Eerste Divisie with Waalwijk looking to maintain their spot in the playoffs while Den Bosch look to eat into some of the four point gap which is keeping them from a playoff spot.

Waalwijk managed to earn a 2-2 draw on the road when these sides last met with that game seeing 26 match shots and 10 match shots on target. BTTS is quite common when these sides meet, with each of the last four head to head clashes seeing both sides find the back of the net.

Waalwijk have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a 2-2 draw against Almere last time out which has dampened their playoff push slightly and provided encouragement to the likes of Den Bosch - who have also seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Furthermore, Den Bosch have seen 58 goals across their 16 away matches in the Eerste Divisie this season - working out to an average of 3.6 goals per game.