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Atalanta v Bayern

Atalanta are averaging 4.3 corners per game in the UCL this season, and have managed 3+ corners in four of their five home matches in the UCL this season.

Bayern Munich are averaging 4.63 corners per game in the UCL this season, this drops slightly when looking at their away matches but it is still above the line we require here (3.50 per game).

Atalanta have picked up a card in eight of their 10 Champions League matches this season, and have drawn a card from their opponents in seven of their 10 matches. 

Bayern Munich have seen both sides pick up at least one card in seven of their eight Champions League matches this season, a tenacity that should only increase in the knockout stages.

The Atalanta goalkeeper is averaging 3.11 saves per 90 in the UCL this season, while Jonas Urbig will step in for the injured Manuel Neuer - Urbig was forced into making six saves in his only UCL appearance this season.

Newcastle v Barcelona 

This exact bet landed with ease when these sides met in the league phase of the Champions League:

Corners:
Newcastle - 6 
Barcelona - 4

Cards:
Newcastle - 2
Barcelona - 4

GK Saves:
Newcastle - 3
Barcelona - 5 

Newcastle have won 32 corners across their five home games in the Champions League this term (6.40 per game). Barcelona are winning 2.75 corners per game on the road this term, but the increase they saw on their last visit to St James’ Park should see this rise again.

Nick Pope has had to make 29 saves across his eight starts in the UCL this season (3.63 per 90), while Joan Garcia is averaging 2.40 saves per 90 in the Champions League this season.

The threshold for cards shouldn’t be too high here, there were six shown in the league phase meeting between the sides - suggesting another competitive encounter that sees both sides pick up at least one card. 

Atletico Madrid v Tottenham 

Only PSG (7.00) and Liverpool (7.50) are seeing more corners per game in the Champions League this season than Atletico Madrid (6.30 per game).

Tottenham are also pretty reliant on set pieces, seeing 4.75 per game on the road in the UCL this term.
Atletico Madrid have picked up a card in nine of their 10 UCL games this season, drawing a card from their opponents in all 10 of these matches. Tottenham have the worst disciplinary record in the PL this term, and have seen both teams pick up at least one card in six of their eight UCL matches.

Jan Oblak is usually one of the most reliable keepers in Europe, but he is yet to keep a clean sheet in the UCL this season - making 28 saves across his nine starts (3.11 per 90). Vicario has managed to keep six clean sheets across his eight starts in the UCL this season, averaging 2.75 saves per 90. 

This selection narrowly missed out from landing when the sides met earlier in the season, with Hull running out 2-0 winners on that occasion and Wrexham missing a penalty. That clash saw a combined xG of 3.62, offering plenty of promise for a goal heavy encounter in the latest meeting between the teams.

Wrexham sit just one spot and three points behind Hull in the close battle to finish in a playoff spot - and also crucially hold a game in hand on the away side here. Wrexham have seen 61 goals across their 18 home matches in the Championship this term (33 scored, 28 conceded - 3.38 per game). Phil Parkinson’s side have seen BTTS and 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, including their recent FA Cup tie against Chelsea.

Hull have seen this selection land in three of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently falling to a 3-1 defeat to Millwall which has just dented their playoff hopes slightly and brought other sides into the discussion. Hull have seen 49 goals across their 17 away games in the Championship this term (28 scored, 21 conceded - 2.88 per game). 

This is a really intriguing midweek matchup in League One, and one that should give us plenty of goals. Reading have seen BTTS in each of their last five matches across all competitions, seeing 3+ goals in three of these games. 

They’ve remained unbeaten across these matches, which reflects Reading’s season on the whole - they’ve been regularly involved in high scoring matches but still managed to maintain that competitive edge and currently sit just one point outside of the playoff spots, with a game in hand on Huddersfield who occupy that final coveted playoff spot.

Reading have seen 53 goals across their 17 away matches in League One this season, working out to an average of 3.11 goals per game (27 scored, 26 conceded). They travel to take on a Mansfield side who managed to hold them to a 1-1 draw when the sides met earlier in the season, and that have scored 24 goals across their 17 home matches in League One this term.

Mansfield aren’t quite clear of the drop zone yet with only five points keeping them Leyton Orient, so there is plenty for the home side to fight for as well which should lead to an open and end to end game which sees both teams get on the scoresheet, and a third goal from the contest. 

The sides have already faced off in the Champions League this season, with Barcelona coming away 2-1 winners over Newcastle at St James’ Park. That game saw both sides register an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.22-1.13) from 29 match shots in total, promising an exciting and end-to-end encounter in this first leg tie.

First leg ties can sometimes be a bit pragmatic and cagey, but I think this particular clash will be one of the more entertaining of the first leg clashes in the round of 16. Newcastle will feel as though they have to take something to Barcelona next week and have seen plenty of goals in recent matches with BTTS landing in each of their last five games across all competitions - including both legs of their Champions League play-off tie against Qarabag. 

Barcelona are rarely a dull watch, and will happily play into the blow-for-blow style with Hansi Flick’s tactical setup lending itself to entertaining matches. Barcelona have seen BTTS in seven of their eight Champions League matches this season, with the exception of their 3-0 defeat to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, which was a very rare game in which Barcelona failed to score. 

Everyone was talking about Pedri after the first leg meeting between the sides, he was excellent in controlling the game for Barcelona alongside Frenkie De Jong - and won three fouls in the clash from this control.

Pedri naturally invites challenges from the opposition due to how much influence he has on the game, generally speaking if you stop Pedri playing then Barcelona tend to struggle - but this is easier said than done as Newcastle found out in the league phase meeting between the sides which Pedri pretty much ran from start to finish.

I don’t think Newcastle will change their approach that much here, Pedri can only really be stopped by hauling him to the ground and his general foul won record in the Champions League reflects that ability. Pedri has drawn 12 fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this term - working out to an average of 2.70 fouls won per 90.

Joelinton and co will be very aggressive and look to push on as much as they can onto Barcelona’s midfield, naturally making Pedri a target for Newcastle’s challenges. 

However, that front-footed approach has often left them slightly vulnerable in transition, which has made for some entertaining encounters, especially against the top sides. BTTS has landed in seven of their eight matches on the European stage this term.

Newcastle certainly have the capabilities of causing problems in transition for Hansi Flick’s side, with the likes of Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Elanga who have the pace to run in behind. Because of that, we could get quite an open contest, with chances available at both ends of the field. 

There were 10 corners in the game when the sides last met, with four for the hosts and six for Barcelona. Newcastle are averaging 11.9 corners per game in the Champions League this season, with 5.5 corners for, and 6.4 corners against. Their games can be quite open and chaotic at times, which makes corners a target.

Rashford stole the show when the sides last met, but Raphinha also played a massive role on the opposite flank, and the former Leeds man also had some good chances. He registered a total of four shots, with one on target. 

The Brazilian has had plenty of involvement in the final third for Barcelona this season, and he is averaging 3.95 shots per 90. That figure drops slightly to 3.46 when playing in the Champions League, but Raphinha has landed this selection in all five of his appearances, and he was on the scoresheet against FC Copenhagen in the final league phase match. 

Rashford has recently returned from injury, and he made his first start last weekend after a four-week hiatus. Hansi Flick might be a bit cautious with his game time, but it would be difficult to leave him out of the starting XI.

Diego Simeone’s men beat an in-form Real Sociedad side 3-2 at the weekend, and they were ruthless in the final third. Atletico racked up 24 shots and six big chances worth 2.31 xG, while the visitors were fortunate to score twice from their seven shots worth just 0.41 xG. 

The Spanish side also beat Club Brugge 4-1 in their last European outing, making the aggregate score 7-4 to book their spot in the round of 16. Atletico have been one of the more entertaining sides in the Champions League this season, and over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of their 10 games in total. The only miss was against Galatasaray in round seven, but that game finished 1-1. Atletico come into this clash in a positive run of form, and they will be looking forward to this matchup.

Spurs haven’t quite been as enterprising, but they have at least regularly been able to find the back of the net, with 17 goals scored in their eight league phase matches. The Lilywhites only lost one game in that stretch, which was against PSG, so were able to automatically qualify for the round of 16. 

However, since their last European match, Spurs have lost five and drawn one in the Premier League, and Igor Tudor has replaced Thomas Frank at the helm. That managerial change hasn’t provided much respite for Spurs fans, as their team have still struggled to restrict chances for their opponents. Tottenham have conceded 15 goals in those six matches alone. 

Atletico Madrid are averaging 6.47 corners per game this season across all competitions, rising significantly to 7.81 when playing on home turf. They will want to secure a positive result to take to London in the second leg, so Atletico should be front-footed on Tuesday night.

Ademola Lookman featured alongside Alexander Sorloth at the weekend, and he racked up four shots before being replaced after 53 minutes. The Nigerian international is likely to operate in a more natural left midfield role on Tuesday night, and he will want to capitalise on this matchup against a leaky Tottenham rearguard, who are missing several key first-team players. 

Lookman has adapted seamlessly to life in Spain after completing the move from Atalanta at the start of January, and he is averaging 3.44 shots per 90 across all competitions. He is swiftly becoming a fan-favourite at the Metropolitano, and has scored four goals in just eight starts for his new club. That includes getting on the scoresheet against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, while Lookman also found the back of the net against Club Brugge on his Champions League debut for Atletico.

Despite receiving a straight red card in his last game against Crystal Palace, Micky Van De Ven will be available for selection in the Champions League, and is likely to retain his starting spot. He made a significant contribution to the outcome of the game on Thursday night, but it was not a positive one. After his dismissal, Ismaila Sarr went on to convert the penalty to level the scores, and Palace scored twice before the end of the first-half to take the game away from Spurs. 

Van De Ven is averaging 1.01 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this selection in all three games under the new manager. The Dutchman is averaging 2.17 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this campaign, and has recorded multiple infringements in five of his six starts overall. He has also been shown three yellow cards in that time.

It’s no surprise that Joelinton is the shortest priced player in the market to commit a foul in this clash given his promising record and general aggression. He’ll be even more important to Newcastle’s chances of getting something from this game given the absence of Bruno Guimaraes, which leaves Newcastle a little light in midfield.

Joelinton has committed 11 fouls across his six starts in the Champions League this season (2.27 per 90), with this record leading to Joelinton picking up two yellow cards - one of which was sustained against Barcelona when these sides met during the league phase. Newcastle committed 11 fouls in that clash, with Joelinton responsible for one of these - though the yellow card he picked up after 28 minutes made him more cautious in that encounter.

This selection did land via Super Sub on that occasion with Joe Willock coming on for Joelinton in the final 30 minutes of that clash and committing a foul. As detailed further below, Joelinton has the perfect opponents in a Barcelona midfield that will look to dominate the ball which can tempt the Brazilian into committing at least two fouls in this encounter, which appears to be the minimum level of aggression from the Newcastle midfielder. 

Everyone was talking about Pedri after the first leg meeting between the sides, he was excellent in controlling the game for Barcelona alongside Frenkie De Jong - and won three fouls in the clash from this control.

Pedri naturally invites challenges from the opposition due to how much influence he has on the game, generally speaking if you stop Pedri playing then Barcelona tend to struggle - but this is easier said than done as Newcastle found out in the league phase meeting between the sides which Pedri pretty much ran from start to finish.

I don’t think Newcastle will change their approach that much here, Pedri can only really be stopped by hauling him to the ground and his general foul won record in the Champions League reflects that ability. Pedri has drawn 12 fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this term - working out to an average of 2.70 fouls won per 90.

Joelinton and co will be very aggressive and look to push on as much as they can onto Barcelona’s midfield, naturally making Pedri a target for Newcastle’s challenges. 

Christian Kofane can be a real handful and should be able to cause Arsenal problems here, given his recent form. Kofane first really caught my attention at AFCON earlier this year, where he netted twice in four starts, taking 13 shots (3.56 per 90).

Taking on Arsenal in the Champions League is quite the step up in quality from AFCON, but I think Kofane has the traits to be a successful striker in Europe. He’s only 19, so he’s got plenty of time to develop, but already looks to be a real threat with five goals across just nine starts in the Bundesliga this season. 

He’s taken 35 shots across these starts (3.27 per 90), showing that he can replicate that promising, but small, sample size at AFCON in a top league. This average drops slightly in the Champions League to 1.93 shots per 90, but he should improve with every game at this level and will fancy his chances of causing Arsenal issues, having scored in each of his last two games ahead of this clash.

Eberechi Eze has found his way back into the starting lineup across recent weeks, with the 27-year-old starting each of Arsenal’s last three Premier League matches.

He’s had to win over Arteta this season, who always prioritises control, but is set to earn a start in the Champions League here and should be able to win at least one foul.

Eze loves to carry the ball through central areas. He’s won 28 fouls across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season - working out to an average of 1.78 fouls won per 90. Eze has also won six fouls across his five starts in the Champions League this term (1.28 per 90), so winning fouls is a pretty consistent part of his game, which can come to the fore here as Leverkusen look to stifle the Gunners.

Allowing Arsenal to win a corner in a game is as bad as giving away a penalty, with how ruthless Mikel Arteta’s side can be from these set-piece situations. Arsenal have won 44 corners across their eight Champions League matches this season, averaging 5.50 per game. 

21 of these corners have come across their four away matches in the Champions League (5.25 per game), showing that Arsenal can still maintain a decent corner count when on the road. There isn’t a better side in Europe at the moment than Arsenal when it comes to dictating the tempo and direction of a game. Arteta’s side are always in complete control and rarely allow their opponents to get a foothold in the contest.

Leverkusen have conceded 20 corners across their five home matches in the Champions League this term (4.00 per game). Arsenal are the perfect side to force a rise in this average, and should be able to impose themselves on Leverkusen to register at least five corners in this clash, with set pieces being a key weapon in Arsenal’s armoury this season.

It’s almost impossible to go against Arsenal in the Champions League at the moment. I grew up with Arsenal being a nearly side in the Champions League - or out of the competition altogether - but Arteta has made them serious competitors and a side that is suited to knockout football with how good they are defensively.

Arsenal have won all eight of their Champions League matches this season, making them the only side to do so in the group stage. They scored more goals than any other side (23). They conceded fewer than any other side (4), so it is no exaggeration to say that Arsenal have been the best side in Europe so far this season - and they should be able to go deep in the competition given the bracket that they’ve been drawn into.

Leverkusen had to battle through a playoff round to reach the last 16, and, truthfully, don’t really have the quality to go toe-to-toe with Arsenal. I think they’ll look pragmatic, but Arsenal will eventually find a way through this, given their ability on set pieces and their general dominance in European matches.

I’m quite surprised to see how far down Joao Pedro is in the market for a shot on target given his recent form, you can back six players at a better price for a shot on target in this clash which isn’t where I would have him given his current form and increased shot volume under Liam Rosenior.

I think Rosenior has struggled with being in the limelight a bit at times, but what is a clear strength of his is his personal relationship with his players which allows him to develop them. Joao Pedro was not shooting enough for a striker when Rosenior first stepped into the club, but is now operating at a shot volume of 2.38 per 90.

Joao Pedro has improved this rate further in his last few matches with five shots against Aston Villa and four efforts against Arsenal. When a striker is playing with confidence, they are more likely to take on shots and also demand the ball from their teammates. Joao Pedro is the most influential player in the Chelsea squad at the moment, and he has previous against PSG having netted against the club in the Club World Cup final.

This has been one of my go to selections when betting on Chelsea this season, especially in matches where the Blues are faced by a daunting away trip. One of the more buried facts about the Blueco era at Chelsea is just how poor they have been on the road against big six clubs since the new ownership took over.

Across Chelsea’s last 19 away matches against Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City - Chelsea have won just once. The Blues have the worst record of any of these sides, losing 12 of these games which I think highlights the main issue at Chelsea which is one that hasn’t changed since the new ownership and is actually quite obvious to most people looking in at the club.

Chelsea’s squad is too young and inexperienced, which naturally leads to petulance. Chelsea have picked up 13 yellow cards across their eight matches in the Champions League this season (1.6 per game) - which is bound to increase in the knockout stages of the competition.

Only three sides in the Premier League have picked up more cards than Chelsea (2.31 per game), and that aggression should translate to the Champions League now we are in the serious phase of the competition.

Luis Enrique really isn’t afraid to chop and change players in his squad, no matter how key they may seem, and this precedent also applies to the goalkeeper. Lucas Chevalier was brought in at the start of the campaign as a replacement for Donnarumma - but he has spent the last nine games on the bench for the reigning European champions.

I never thought Donnarumma needed replacing if I’m honest, but Enrique’s argument was that he wanted a keeper that is better with his feet - a common wish of modern managers. Matvey Safonov has taken Chevalier’s place over these recent matches and has been forced into making 17 saves across his eight starts in Ligue 1 (2.12 saves per 90).

Safonov also played in both legs of PSG’s triumph over Monaco in the playoff round to reach this stage of the competition, and is maintaining a save average of exactly 2.00 saves per 90 in the Champions League this term. Monaco managed to score four goals in that tie, so I think PSG aren’t quite solid enough at the back to keep Chelsea from testing their goalkeeper on at least two occasions. 

Both legs of PSG’s playoff tie against Monaco produced at least nine corners, with PSG registering eight corners in each match. That trend holds up more broadly under Luis Enrique - seven of PSG’s 10 Champions League fixtures this term have featured nine or more total corners.

On home soil in Europe this season, PSG have earned 33 corners across five matches, averaging 6.60 per game. Chelsea, for their part, are averaging exactly four corners per game on their Champions League travels this season and under Liam Rosenior, they’ve looked especially vulnerable from set pieces.

Rosenior has now overseen 15 matches as Chelsea boss, with 12 of those games (80%) seeing nine or more corners. Opponents are clearly targeting Chelsea from dead-ball situations, and PSG have both the quality and territorial control to do the same. 

That said, Chelsea pose a threat from such scenarios too - six of their 17 Champions League goals this season have come from penalties or set pieces, and they managed to rack up 10 corners in a recent away trip to Arsenal.