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Fulham v Nottingham Forest Bet Builder @ 3.64

Igor Jesus has shown glimpses of quality for Nottingham Forest so far, with 28 shots across his eight appearances in the Premier League (3.34 per 90), seeing seven of these efforts find the target (0.84 per 90).

This shot record has only translated to one goal in the Premier League for Jesus, but he has been getting in excellent positions and has the potential to be a decent top-level striker. We’ve seen the best of Jesus in the Europa League with the Brazilian netting four goals across just three starts in the competition while averaging 4.22 shots per 90 and 2.11 shots on target per 90.

This shot volume is particularly notable as Forest don’t have many high shot volume players, with Gibbs White only having six more efforts than Jesus across seven extra starts. Jesus has had a shot on target in four of his last five Premier League starts, and his shot volume suggests that he will continue to be a shot threat for Forest here.

These sides last met in February, with that clash producing three goals as Fulham ran out 2-1 winners at Craven Cottage. That clash saw a combined xG of 2.6, with Fulham contributing most of that (2.18).

Fulham have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches across all competitions, with all of these games also going over the 3+ goal line. They’ve won two games in this recent sequence, but both victories saw the Cottagers concede in their triumphs against Tottenham and Burnley.

This suggests that Fulham are seeing quite end-to-end matches at the moment, and it should be a similar scenario here with Marco Silva’s side seeing 24 goals across their eight games at Craven Cottage this term (3.0 per game).

Forest have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, with the exception of a 1-0 win over Wolves on the road. That game was always going to be a tight affair, and saw a goal disallowed, so we can put it to one side when assessing the chances for goals in this fixture.

Fulham have maintained similar aggression levels to those they displayed last season with the Cottagers currently averaging 11.8 fouls committed per game in the Premier League. Only three sides have committed more fouls than Marco Silva’s side who are dogged out of possession, making Gibbs White a good target to be hauled down here.

Gibbs White has been fouled in three of his last five Premier League appearances, and has won 15 fouls this season overall (1.00 per 90). He’s having over 50 touches of the ball per 90 and completing around 30 passes per 90 so we can expect him to get plenty of the ball here as Forest’s main creative outlet.

Fulham are having to slightly restructure their side having lost Iwobi, Bassey and Chukweze to AFCON but the midfield pairing of Berge and Lukic should stay consistent as the duo have been an effective partnership for Marco Silva at Fulham. Berge and Lukic combine to commit 4.48 fouls per 90 in the Premier League with Lukic doing the majority of the heavy lifting for this metric (3.38 fouls committed per 90).

The most recent head-to-head meeting between these sides in the Premier League produced 12 corners as Fulham came away 2-1 winners at Craven Cottage. Fulham 1-0 win at the City Ground in the previous meeting also covered this line with 11 match corners on that occasion.

Fulham are winning 6.25 corners per game at Craven Cottage this season, so we can expect them to contribute heavily to the overall corner count in this clash. Only four sides are winning more corners per game at home than Fulham in the Premier League this season - Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester City and Nottingham Forest.

Fulham are seeing 11.25 match corners per game at Craven Cottage with Marco Silva’s side conceding 5.0 per game. Forest should be able to contribute to the overall corner count with an average of 4.25 corners per game on the road this term, with their away fixtures seeing 9.75 match corners per game.

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