It’s tough to find value in City games, but Semenyo seems to be providing some since his January switch from Bournemouth. With Haaland at 1.11, Marmoush at 1.25 and Cherki at 1.28 to register 1+ shots on target, this looks rather attractive at the current price.

Semenyo has averaged 1.20 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League for City, and has had one or more shots on target in each of his games, except his debut in that poor performance against United. For The Cherries, Semenyo was averaging 1.35 shots on target per 90. He’s adapted really well from being a bit of a talisman to more of a cog in a machine, netting three times in the PL already for his new club. Going back across ‘25/26, Semenyo has had a shot on target in 21 of his 25 games.

I like focusing my shots on target picks on players who have plenty of routes to landing it. Semenyo is brilliant on both feet, he gets into the box, but he also shoots from range. All those elements combined are huge positives.

Man City should have plenty of encouragement to pick up all three points in this clash, given that Arsenal slipped up at Wolves during the week, meaning that City can close the gap at the top to just two points before Arsenal take on Tottenham in the North London Derby.

Man City have been very strong at home in the Premier League this season, winning 10 of their 13 matches at the Etihad, which is the joint best home record in the division. They’ve netted 32 goals across these games, which is also the most in the league, and only conceded eight goals - this defensive record is significant, as City had their worst ever defensive home campaign under Guardiola last season, conceding 23 goals.

City comfortably beat Newcastle over two legs in the EFL Cup semi-final which took place in January. They ran out 5-1 winners over the two legs, racing into a 3-0 lead in the first half of the second leg when Newcastle visited the Etihad. Newcastle have never won at the Etihad in Guardiola’s tenure at the club, and have lost their last six trips without even scoring a goal. 

It’s not often a selection starts by discussing a different player, one that’s not even playing - but a big hinge for this bet is the absence of Bruno Guimaraes. The Brazilian has been excellent for The Toon this season, but misses this one through injury. That means a reshuffle for Newcastle. Tonali will drop into the six, as opposed to his usual position as an eight.

Guimaraes commits a hefty 1.47 fouls per 90 and his 33 is the most in the Newcastle squad. Those fouls don’t just vanish. Yes, Tonali may foul less at 0.86 times per 90, but his position will contribute to that. He doesn’t lack aggression, and playing in that deeper role in midweek, he committed two fouls - against a far weaker side than City.

He’ll also likely come across City’s most fouled players like Rodri (1.72) and Foden (1.31). Nico O’Reilly is another interesting addition to the mix, he’s drawn four fouls in two games since being moved into midfield.

Newcastle have scored 13 of their 37 Premier League goals from set pieces this season (35%), indicating that corners and other set plays are a key part of their attacking approach.

Newcastle are averaging 6.92 corners per game in the Premier League, which is the highest average of any side in the top flight this term. This metric drops slightly, but is still convincing, when looking at their away games, in which they’re averaging 6.38 corners per game. No side has won more corners on the road in the Premier League this season than Newcastle, setting them up for a healthy corner count here.

Newcastle have managed 4+ corners in all three of the meetings between these sides this term, including a tally of five when the sides last clashed in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final. If Newcastle are going to have joy here, it’s likely to come from set pieces - the threats of Thiaw and Burn can cause City problems.

One of Semenyo’s standout traits is his shot volume. I think this was the main motivator for Guardiola to sign Semenyo. Aside from Haaland, City don’t have that many players who regularly post high shot volumes. Foden did this for a season, but has struggled to get to that output again since which is why Semenyo has been such a valuable signing for City.

Semenyo has taken 59 shots across his 25 Premier League appearances this season, working out to an average of 2.36 shots per 90. Of these efforts, 33 have found the target (1.32 per 90) which is a very impressive shot accuracy of 56%. I can see Semenyo’s shot volume improving further the longer he is with this City side, and I anticipate him getting enough chances to have at least two shots on target here. 

Semenyo has had a shot on target in each of his last four games for Manchester City, managing to find the target twice in two of these games. Newcastle allowed Manchester City to register 12 shots on target across the two legs of their EFL Cup semi final against Guardiola’s side, with eight of these being suffered in the leg at the Etihad. 

It’s been a difficult first season at Tottenham for big money summer signing Xavi Simons, who has shown flashes of quality but only contributed five goal contributions in the Premier League.

What Simons has undoubtedly shown is a willingness to get stuck in, sometimes too much so, averaging just under one foul per 90 in the Premier League (0.98).

A fiery personality, the Dutchman can become frustrated quickly and has picked up four yellows and one red so far in his debut season in the Premier League.

If there is one Tottenham fixture in which emotions can run particularly high it is the North London derby and I expect Simons to be bang up for this one under a new manager in Igor Tudor.

Jurrien Timber has been a key player for Arsenal this season both offensively and defensively, showing great energy up and down the Gunners’ right flank.

The Dutchman’s ability to get up and down the pitch sees him involved in a lot of duels which inevitably increases the risk of fouls, with Timber averaging 1.40 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Timber has picked up four yellow cards in the Premier League this season, with three of these cautions picked up in away games.

The right-back is likely to come into close contact with international teammate Simons at the Tottenham Stadium, with Spurs’ number seven a specialist at drawing fouls, averaging 2.22 won per 90.

Timber is a naturally combative player and will be more than prepared for a physical battle should this North London derby pan out this way

West Ham progressed in the FA Cup last time out with a victory over Burton Albion. It wasn’t the most convincing performance, requiring extra time, but the Hammers were able to get the job done. They come into this clash in solid form, having lost just one of their last seven matches in all competitions.

Bournemouth are also on a positive run, unbeaten in six league matches, and they were able to secure a 2-1 win over Everton last time out. However, defensive issues have persisted. The Cherries have kept just one clean sheet in that spell and have conceded 31 goals in 13 Premier League away matches this season - only Burnley have shipped more.

West Ham haven’t been much better at the back this campaign, with 49 league goals conceded. Both sides are more effective going forward than they are at defending, which makes goals a target.

The reverse fixture between these sides earlier in the season was an entertaining 2-2 draw that produced 11 corners in total.

Both sides had good chances, but Bournemouth were unfortunate to only leave with a single point, given that they racked up 28 shots worth 4.05 xG. They were the dominant side, accounting for nine out of eleven corners in the match, and they were able to cut through West Ham easily. 

This encounter should be more balanced, with West Ham playing in front of their home crowd and expected to take a more proactive approach. The Hammers are averaging 6.0 corners per game at the London Stadium this season, compared to just 4.6 on their travels.

Both sides will be hopeful of securing a positive result on Saturday evening, so we could get quite an open contest, with chances at both ends of the pitch.

Crysencio Summerville has been central to West Ham’s recent resurgence and has locked down a starting role on the flank. It was his stellar performance against QPR that seemed to be a turning point for the Hammers - Summerville opened the scoring in that game, before providing the assist for the winning goal in extra time. 

The Dutchman followed that up by scoring in four consecutive league matches, but that streak ended last week against Man United. He still registered a shot on target in that game, but was denied by Senne Lammens. 

However, the purple patch resumed against Burton Albion last weekend - Summerville was introduced after 83 minutes, and went on to score the decisive goal in extra time. That booked West Ham a spot in the FA Cup round of 16, and they owe a lot of credit to Summerville.

Lewis Cook, Tyler Adams, and Ryan Christie have all struggled with injuries this season, but Alex Scott has stepped in their absence and established himself as a key figure in midfield.

Even with all of them back fit for this clash, Alex Scott looks set to retain his spot. He has started each of the last ten matches for Bournemouth, and played the full 90 in eight of those. 

In that time, he has drawn a total of 20 fouls and has landed this selection in seven of those matches. The 22-year-old likes to have the ball at his feet and usually dares to try to beat his marker. Scott is adept at drawing free-kicks in midfield, either so Bournemouth can lump the ball into the box, or just to alleviate the pressure on his side.

He draws a good matchup here against a West Ham side that has played with more intensity in recent weeks.

Sheffield United will be desperate to hammer their struggling rivals Sheffield Wednesday and I expect the Blades to have the lion’s share of possession and territory.

Wednesday have lost nine Championship games in a row, averaging only 39.6% possession in their last five matches, and I expect them to spend limited time in Sheffield United’s final third at Bramall Lane.

For this reason, I think United’s most likely candidates for a card will be in midfield, with this area of the pitch always crucial in derby matches.

Kalvin Phillips and Djibril Soumare are both combative midfielders who can be prone to making fouls and I am picking out the latter to find himself in the ref’s notebook in the Steel City derby.

Soumare has averaged 1.63 fouls per 90 in the Championship this season and has committed at least one foul in his last six appearances in a row.

The Senegalese midfielder has received four yellow cards in the league this season and I am tipping him to add to this tally against Wednesday, whose midfield pairing of Svante Ingelsson and Jaden Heskey have averaged 1.30 and 1.29 fouls won per 90 respectively in the Championship.

Since arriving on loan from Man City in January, Jaden Heskey has been on the losing side in seven straight matches for Sheffield Wednesday.

His first ever loan move, Heskey will be very eager to impress and this can at times result in over-enthusiasm, with the youngster having committed a foul in all but one of his Wednesday appearances so far.

Heskey’s foul count is high, averaging 1.94 per 90, and he was booked in Wednesday’s last away match at Swansea.

The hostile atmosphere of the Steel City derby will represent a big test of Heskey’s character at this early stage of his career and I could see him potentially falling foul of the ref in an attempt to make his mark on the match.

In four of his seven Championship matches so far, Heskey has made at least two fouls which means he is regularly walking a tightrope when it comes to collecting cards.

I was expecting this line to be far too short to bet on, but I don’t think that it has been massively affected by the circumstances of this match at the moment.

There could be some sense in holding off this bet until we know the exact answer to the relegation conundrum, as I think that the opportunity to relegate Wednesday in this match will add a little bit extra to the atmosphere both on the pitch and in the stands as well.

Joshua Smith is the referee and he is averaging around 3.8 yellow cards per match in the Championship so far this season, but he averaged well over four yellows per match last season, so he is a referee who certainly doesn’t hold this bet back.

The Sheffield derby has been played three times in the last two seasons and there has been three (most recent), six, and four yellow cards given. I suspect that the message for the Wednesday players ahead of this match would be to go out and give it everything for the fans and to go out swinging.

Sheffield United have been a team to follow for corners all season, with a frankly ridiculous record of earning corners, especially at home.

United have won an average of 7.15 corners per match in the Championship this season. This goes up to exactly eight when only considering matches played at Bramall Lane. Four of their last five home matches have all gone over this line, too.

Sheffield Wednesday also concede a lot of corners. They are averaging 6.33 corners against them all season, this goes up to 7.07 when only looking at away fixtures. United won seven corners in the return fixture as well, a repeat of which would be good enough for a winning bet here.

The young centre back has been heavily involved in foul involvements in his burgeoning professional football career.

I have selected him as a player to commit fouls in the past, but here I like the chances of him being fouled instead, and this is partially due to his own record, but principally because of Patrick Bamford’s fouling record in recent weeks.

Otegbayo has been fouled in his last three matches, and in six of his last seven, he averages 1.05 fouls against him in his season so far. Bamford will likely be selected to play up front for the Blades, he has started the last two matches since coming back from suspension. That suspension doesn’t seem to have changed his physicality though, he has committed five fouls in those two matches, and committed seven fouls in the match previous.

He is averaging 2.39 fouls per 90, and whilst we cannot guarantee that these fouls will be committed against Otegbayo, there is a good enough chance to make the odds here look attractive.

The Sheffield United defender has been a rock since joining early in the season, however, he has had an unusually large number of fouls committed for a central defender.

He is averaging 1.14 fouls per 90, but he has been very consistent in when those fouls have occurred. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last 10 starts, and has only not committed a foul in four of his starts all season, so to get the odds that are available here in such an emotionally charged match looks a really good bet.

Direct opponents are likely to be Jama Lowe and/or Joel Ndala. Lowe is averaging just over a foul against him per 90 minutes, and Ndala was fouled three times on debut for Wednesday against Swansea a couple of weeks ago.

I always love watching Noah Sadiki play when I watch Sunderland, he’s got a bit of everything you need to be an effective ball winner in the Premier League and covers a massive amount of ground. He’ll have to do even more work than usual here with his usual midfield partner in Granit Xhaka set to be sidelined for this clash.

Noah Sadiki has committed a foul in three of his last five Premier League appearances, committing multiple fouls in two of these games. He committed a foul in Sunderland’s 1-0 defeat to Fulham at Craven Cottage earlier in the campaign, and should be in line to commit at least one foul in this latest meeting. Sadiki has committed 18 fouls across his 21 starts in the Premier League this season (0.88 per 90).

Sunderland can be passive at times, but I expect Sadiki to be engaged in quite a tough midfield battle against Emile Smith Rowe who has very clever movement and is sure to lose the Sunderland midfielder on a few occasions. Sunderland committed 13 fouls in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, a tally above their average of 10.0 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season.

Harry Wilson was fouled twice in the most recent league meeting between these sides, and has a promising direct opponent again here to draw a few fouls from. Wilson has been Fulham’s best player in the Premier League this season and is particularly strong when it comes to winning fouls, drawing 28 across his 23 appearances in the Premier League this term (1.30 per 90). 

He’ll be running at Cirkin in this clash with Reinildo out injured. Cirkin hasn't featured too regularly for Sunderland this season, but has committed two fouls in the 297 minutes he's played in the Premier League this season. It's also interesting to note that he's as short as 1.17 to commit a foul in this clash, suggesting that he will be in for quite a tough assignment against Wilson.

Sunderland’s 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in their most recent Premier League game was the first loss that they’ve suffered at the Stadium of Light in the league this season. They’ve been incredibly hard to shift at home this term, netting 21 goals across their 13 matches in front of their own supporters (1.61 per game).

This fits quite well with Fulham’s poor record on the road this season. Marco Silva’s side have only managed to win three of their 13 away matches in the Premier League, losing eight of these games. The most notable part of this record is how vulnerable Fulham have been defensively, they’ve conceded 24 goals across their 13 away fixtures (1.84 per game).

Fulham aren’t particularly strong when it comes to keeping clean sheets in general in the Premier League. They’ve only kept five all season, and have failed to keep the opposition out in each of their last five matches across all competitions - including conceding to Stoke in the FA Cup last time out.

It didn’t take long for me to be impressed with Robin Roefs, he’s settled into the Premier League with ease after joining Sunderland from Nijmegen over the summer. Roefs has been a key part of Sunderland’s success this season, contributing with eight clean sheets and 80 saves across his 26 starts in the Premier League (3.08 per 90).

Roefs has maintained a save percentage of 72.7% across these games, making him one of the most reliable keepers in the league - only Donnarumma (73%) and Emi Martinez (77.4%) have a higher save percentage in the Premier League this season than the Sunderland keeper. Roefs’ total is maybe even more impressive than that of Donnarumma and Martinez when considering the quality of defenders they have in front of them. 

Fulham drew four saves from Roefs when the sides met earlier in the season. It took Marco Silva’s side 84 minutes to break the deadlock, and I think we could see a similar pattern in this game where it takes Fulham time to find a way past the impressive shot stopping abilities of Robin Roefs.

Vitor Pereira’s tenure at Nottingham Forest started on the right foot, as his side secured a convincing 3-0 win against Fenerbahce in the Europa League.

Forest were thoroughly in control throughout, and Fenerbahce, who are unbeaten in the Turkish Super League this season, were simply unable to lay a glove on the Premier League side. Forest face a much tougher matchup this weekend, as they host Liverpool at the City Ground. 

After securing a top-eight finish in the Champions League, the Reds automatically qualified for the round of 16, meaning they had no midweek fixture to contend with. They were convincing against Brighton last weekend, securing a 3-0 victory on home turf. 

Liverpool have started to show a bit more resilience in recent weeks, and they come into this match following back-to-back wins. They will need to keep stringing together positive results as they aim for a top-four finish.

Both sides will be hopeful of securing three points coming into this clash - Liverpool are favourites, but the reverse fixture finished 3-0 to Forest. The Reds were in the middle of a rough patch of form then, but they have looked a lot more settled in recent weeks and will want to get revenge. 

Chances were available at both ends of the field in that game at Anfield, as Liverpool racked up 21 shots worth 1.93 xG, which translated to eight corners. Despite leading from the 33rd minute onwards, Forest also managed six corners, which shows how they were able to cause problems in transition. 

They have the tools to cause issues for this Liverpool side again, and they tend to play with more confidence in front of a home crowd. Because of that, there should be action at both ends of the field, and corners become a target.

Morgan Gibbs-White played a pivotal role in that win against Liverpool earlier in the season, pulling the string from an advanced midfield position. He recorded two shots and scored the third and final goal of the game to seal the victory. 

His shot volume has been much more consistent on home turf this season, and Gibbs-White has landed this bet in 15 out of 16 appearances at the City Ground. The 26-year-old is averaging 3.01 shots per 90 across all competitions at home, which is amongst the highest values in the Forest squad, and his role in the squad looks set to remain unchanged despite the arrival of a new manager. 

Gibbs-White provided an assist for Igor Jesus against Fenerbahce, before the Brazilian returned the favour for Gibbs-White to score the third goal of the game in the 50th minute. The Englishman had four shots midweek, with three on target.

Neco Williams has been another consistent performer for Forest, and he will be extra motivated here to cause issues against his former club. He was fouled once on his return to Anfield earlier in the season, and he also landed this bet against Liverpool at the City Ground last season, even with his direct matchup on the flank being Mo Salah. 

Williams sees plenty of the ball for Forest and is adept at drawing contact, especially when he drives into the final third from deeper areas. The Welshman is averaging 1.81 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, landing this selection in 14 of 16 home matches.

One of those misses came in a 4-0 win over Ferencvaros in the Europa League, a game which wasn’t much of a contest. This matchup with Liverpool should be far more competitive.

After securing a 1-0 victory against rivals Brighton at the Amex, it finally seemed like Crystal Palace had turned a corner, as they broke out of a 12-game winless streak. However, the Eagles were pegged back once again, as they suffered a damning defeat against Burnley in their last Premier League match. It was further disappointment midweek for Oliver Glasner, as his side were only able to draw (1-1) against Bosnian side Zrinjski Mostar in the Conference League. 

Palace have at least shown improvements in the final third, as they have scored in each of their last seven matches across all competitions, but the main concern for them is how leaky they have been at the back - they have only kept two clean sheets since the start of January. 

Wolves haven’t been particularly impressive in the final third this season, but they will fancy their chances of causing problems against Palace, especially after their result against Arsenal last time out. Wolves also netted against Chelsea a few weeks back, and have scored in four of their last six away league matches (v Everton, Man United, Liverpool, and Arsenal).

After going 2-0 down in the 56th minute, it looked like Wolves were on track to suffer their 20th league defeat of the season, but Rob Edwards’ men showed character to fight back and level the scores in the 94th minute. Wolves are still rock bottom of the league, 17 points adrift of safety, but they are still battling. 

Wolves rank top of the charts for total fouls committed this campaign, averaging 13.44 infringements per game. That number rises to 14.38 when they play away, which has translated to an average of 2.62 yellow cards per game. 

Anthony Taylor dished out five yellow cards in the reverse fixture between the sides at Molineux, with Wolves accounting for two of those. This selection has landed in 11 out of 13 Wolves games on the road this season, while Palace have drawn at least two cards in six of their last seven league games at Selhurst Park.

Jorgen Strand Larsen will get the chance to face his former club this weekend, not too long after departing from the Midlands. The Norwegian international scored just one goal in 22 Premier League appearances for Wolves this season, but has already doubled that tally for his new club, despite only featuring twice. 

Strand Larsen bagged himself a brace against Burnley in his last Premier League game, registering a total of three shots. He also had plenty of service on his debut against Brighton, again registering three shots, with two hitting the target. He has hit the ground running for his new club, and will hope to keep his scoring form up. 

The 26-year-old will have plenty of experience against these Wolves defenders, and will know just how to find chances. With Jean-Philippe Mateta out injured, Strand Larsen has become a key player for Palace, and he will hope to establish himself as the first choice starter going forward.

The striker has looked eager to impress since moving to South London, and Strand Larsen has really been putting himself about. He accrued three fouls on his debut against Brighton, which saw him pick up a booking, before then committing two fouls against Burnley. Palace recorded 20 fouls as a team across those two matches, and Strand Larsen accounted for a quarter of those infringements. 

He should find duels against Yerson Mosquera here - the centre back has been adept at drawing soft fouls at the back for Wolves, and he will want to frustrate Strand Larsen. Mosquera is averaging 1.98 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League this season, with that figure rising to 2.26 when playing away. 

He has drawn multiple infringements in each of his last four league matches on the road, and he looks well poised to increase that streak this weekend with a solid matchup.

Tottenham have seen at least two cards in each of their last 12 home Premier League matches dating back to the opening day of the season against Burnley. In their last nine games in England’s top flight, they have had at least three cards on eight occasions. It would be a massive surprise if that run were to end in North London Derby encounter that typically sees plenty of action for the referee.

Spurs were shown three yellow cards in their previous clash against Arsenal in November off the back of 15 fouls, that count is unlikely to drop under new manager Igor Tudor.

Not only should the home players be doubly determined to show their new boss what they can do, the former Juventus and Marseille head coach is noted for his teams adopting a physical approach. Throw this additional element into the derby atmosphere and referee Peter Bankes, who booked four Spurs players in their clash against Man City earlier this season, we can expect a couple of home cards at least. Bankes averages 4.22 cards per game in the Premier League this term.

Contrary to popular belief, Arsenal have been going pretty well offensively in recent weeks. Across their last 16 matches in all competitions, they have scored two or more goals on 12 occasions, including in three of their last four games.

Scoring against Spurs hasn’t historically been much of an issue for Mikel Arteta’s side, either. When the sides met earlier this term, the Gunners ran in four goals against their neighbours, with Eberechi Eze famously grabbing a hat-trick. Indeed, they have scored two or more goals in eight of their last 10 North London Derby matches.

Tottenham’s defence, meanwhile, hasn’t been up to much lately. They have conceded two goals in seven of their last nine games, four of their last five at home, and in each of their last six in the Premier League. Without defensive leader Cristian Romero due to suspension, and missing Pedro Porro, Kevin Danso and Destiny Udogie due to injuries, the odds are against Spurs ending that run here.

The bet has landed in seven of Simons' last eight in the league. Simons will likely duel with Jurrien Timber, who’s been fouled in all of his last five, winning seven fouls in that run.

Simons is averaging 0.98 fouls per 90 in the Premier League and crucially, 1.89 tackles per 90 as well. He’s made five sliding tackles in his last three games, too. Igor Tudor will tweak things, but Simons' fouling has remained consistent, despite playing in different positions this season, add in the fuel of the North London derby and he should sin at least once.

Simons could get involved with Eberechi Eze (1.79 fouls won per 90) and even Bukayo Saka (2.30 fouls won per 90) if he starts, we could see more tracking back to impress his new manager.

This bet has landed in Gallagher's last three in the league. The last time Igor Tudor managed a team for a full season was 2022/23 at Marseille, and they were the 2nd-biggest foulers in Ligue 1 at 14 per game - that rate would be the highest in the Premier League this season.

In terms of Premier League players who'd be suited to playing in an aggressive team like that - Gallagher is right up there. With the Super Sub feature onside, he’s fouled in all five of his Premier League appearances for Spurs (1-1-3-2-2). In his last full season at Chelsea, he was fouling over two times per game on average, too.

With the potential for Eze (1.79 fouls won per 90) to come into the team as well, Gallagher's former team-mate at Crystal Palace, Gallagher should relish his first North London derby.