UFC Betting Tips & Predictions

Medic has won his last four fights by first-round knockout, and those four wins lasted a combined 3 minutes and 50 seconds. All 14 of his professional wins have been finishes, and he has never gone the distance in his career, win or lose.

He’s a creative, high-volume striker. He lands more than five significant strikes per minute at close to 60% accuracy, and his game includes spinning attacks, a sharp left hand and excellent kicks and knees. The concern is his defence. He can get wild and overextend, and he’s been dropped three times in the UFC.

Holland comes off a bounce-back decision win over Randy Brown, which ended a two-fight losing streak. He’s powerful and holds a 10-inch reach advantage (81" to 71"), but his UFC record is patchy: 16-12 (and one no contest) across 29 fights. His striking has become sloppy and isn’t as crisp as it once was. He’s still dangerous with his submissions, and 23 of his 29 pro wins have come inside the distance. If Medic lands clean early, I expect another quick night’s work.

Borralho is 8-1 in the UFC, 18-2 as a pro and fifth in the middleweight rankings. He faces the unranked Belgaroui, who is 3-0 in the UFC with every win coming by TKO.

It’s a strange booking for Borralho. Instead of fighting a ranked opponent to move towards a title shot, he’s taking on an unranked prospect, which gets him no closer to the belt.

Borralho is an elite grappler, but lately he has abandoned that side of his game, spending most of his time striking and landing just one takedown in his last five fights. On the feet he’s measured rather than destructive. He lands around 3.3 significant strikes per minute, and six of his eight UFC wins have gone to the judges.

Belgaroui is a world-class kickboxer with a long frame. He stands 6'6" with a 79-inch reach, four inches longer than Borralho’s. He even holds a kickboxing win over Alex Pereira, the former UFC middleweight and light heavyweight champion. His striking is clean and busy: 6.4 significant strikes per minute at 63% accuracy, almost double Borralho’s output. He has a stinging jab and nasty knees from close range and from distance. He’s also resilient, having shown he can be taken down, get back to his feet and still finish fights in the later rounds.

I’m taking the underdog. Belgaroui will keep this at range and land vicious shots every time Borralho tries to close the distance.

Nunes is coming out of retirement after three years. Harrison returns from a lengthy layoff with a neck injury, the same injury that pulled this fight from UFC 324 in January.

This fight is for GOAT status in women’s MMA, and I don’t believe Nunes is coming back just for a payday.

Harrison is a two-time Olympic judo gold medallist. She’s at her most effective with throws, sweeps and a wide array of takedowns, and once the fight hits the ground she smothers her opponents. She will get Nunes to the mat, but I don’t believe she’ll keep her there long enough.

Harrison’s cardio is also a question. She’s going through an extreme weight cut and has said on record that it’s taking “years off her life”.

Nunes has the hardest punch in women’s MMA history. She’s an elite, durable striker with a three-inch reach advantage, and Harrison simply can’t match her on the feet. Everything Harrison does in this fight is a means to an end, and that end is getting it to the ground. Nunes is the more well-rounded fighter and has more ways to win.

Gane is coming off a huge second-round KO of Alex Pereira. He’s an incredible athlete and a dynamic striker: patient, very accurate (62% of his significant strikes land) and excellent at finding openings.

He’s also the bigger man, at 6'4" with an 81-inch reach against Hokit’s 6'1" and 73 inches. He’s far more experienced too, with wins over top UFC names. His only losses came against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou.

Hokit is 4-0 in the UFC (10-0 overall) and made his debut just over a year ago. His antics outside the cage have thrust him into the spotlight, but make no mistake, he’s a very good athlete and a well-rounded fighter. He pushes the pace, chains takedowns and throws huge volume, landing 9.29 significant strikes per minute. That output comes at a cost, though. He absorbs more than five significant strikes a minute, and he headhunts rather than mixing his levels: 91% of his significant strikes go to the head, compared with 45% for Gane.

Gane is elusive, absorbing only around 2.3 strikes per minute, and has far more high-level experience. Hokit needs a perfect performance to win. From what we’ve seen, Hokit won’t settle for a close decision. At some point he’ll open up and go for broke, and that’s when Gane will find the openings to finish it by KO/TKO.