I’ve been really impressed with Wales under Craig Bellamy, and think that they will have enough to get over the line here even if Bosnia are stubborn in the early stages of the contest.

Wales have won three of their four home matches during qualifying so far, netting 15 goals across these matches (3.75 per game). This is slightly skewed by Wales netting seven goals against North Macedonia in their final qualifying match before this knockout format.

Wales have recent experience of this format as well having battled to the final of the qualifying process for the European Championships back in 2024. They beat Finland 4-1 in the semi final at home on that occasion to set up a clash with Poland in the final, who went through on penalties.

Bosnia are an awkward task, which is why I've leaned towards Wales qualifying from this tie rather than winning outright. If the game does go the distance, I think Wales still have the advantage when it comes to fitness and overall quality to come through extra time or penalties

This match is massive for Italy in the context of how the national team have struggled over recent seasons. They’ve failed to feature at each of the last two World Cups, which is a disaster for a nation as football obsessed as Italy are.

It’s not down to a quality issue either, Italy have been a bit too complacent in the qualifying process and are banking on the weaknesses of their opponents rather than their own quality. Gattuso has come in to try and rectify this issue, and has made some notable changes which can help Italy get over the line here against a side that they are clearly better than.

Italy won six of their eight matches during qualifying, only losing to Norway during that process. Italy’s ability to navigate the rest of their opponents during that qualifying run with relative ease, suggests that they shouldn’t run into any major complications until the final stage.

Northern Ireland may prove to be an awkward opponent at times, but it is clear that they lack the quality of Italy. They won three and lost three of their qualifying matches, notably only winning one of their three away games which was against Luxembourg.

This is one of the closer semi final ties on paper with Sweden looking to break their recent record of falling short when it comes to qualifying for major tournaments. The bookmakers have Sweden at slight favourites here at 2.40 to win the game, while Ukraine are priced at 3.00 to take the victory - so there isn’t a massive amount between these sides.

Sweden have clear quality in forward areas with the likes of Elanga, Gyokeres and Isak (when fit), but the defensive side of their game is weak as shown by the fact that they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven matches across all competitions. They’ve seen BTTS in four of these games, and this defensive weakness will be one that Ukraine are happy to exploit.

Ukraine had quite a difficult qualifying group, with France and Iceland being their main competitors. Their six matches during qualifying produced 21 goals (3.5 per game), with a fairly even split in the number of goals scored and conceded (10-11).

Poland will probably feel a bit hard done by to have to contest this qualifying tie, and not just because Anthony Taylor has been appointed as the referee for this game.

Poland only lost one of their eight qualifying matches yet still finished three points behind Netherlands who snuck through to the World Cup. Poland will feel a bit annoyed that they have to play two more games to reach the showpiece event, but have experience of this format having beaten Wales on penalties to reach the European Championships a few years ago.

Albania made a real breakthrough at the most European Championships, despite being drawn in an almost impossible group. That campaign raised the profile of Albania on the international stage, and they have built on that to see off Serbia to secure this qualifying spot with England topping the group.

Poland saw 20 goals across their eight qualifying matches (2.5 per game), and have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. These sides last met in 2023, with Albania running out 2-0 winners over Poland on that occasion.

This is one of the closer semi final ties on paper with Sweden looking to break their recent record of falling short when it comes to qualifying for major tournaments. The bookmakers have Sweden at slight favourites here at 2.40 to win the game, while Ukraine are priced at 3.00 to take the victory - so there isn’t a massive amount between these sides.

Sweden have clear quality in forward areas with the likes of Elanga, Gyokeres and Isak (when fit), but the defensive side of their game is weak as shown by the fact that they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in their last seven matches across all competitions. They’ve seen BTTS in four of these games, and this defensive weakness will be one that Ukraine are happy to exploit.

Ukraine had quite a difficult qualifying group, with France and Iceland being their main competitors. Their six matches during qualifying produced 21 goals (3.5 per game), with a fairly even split in the number of goals scored and conceded (10-11).

I’ve been really impressed with Wales under Craig Bellamy, and think that they will have enough to get over the line here even if Bosnia are stubborn in the early stages of the contest.

Wales have won three of their four home matches during qualifying so far, netting 15 goals across these matches (3.75 per game). This is slightly skewed by Wales netting seven goals against North Macedonia in their final qualifying match before this knockout format.

Wales have recent experience of this format as well having battled to the final of the qualifying process for the European Championships back in 2024. They beat Finland 4-1 in the semi final at home on that occasion to set up a clash with Poland in the final, who went through on penalties.

Bosnia are an awkward task, which is why I've leaned towards Wales qualifying from this tie rather than winning outright. If the game does go the distance, I think Wales still have the advantage when it comes to fitness and overall quality to come through extra time or penalties

Harry Wilson has emerged as Wales’ most important player over recent qualifying campaigns, and is set to be central to Craig Bellamy’s chances of coming through this semi final clash.

Wilson has netted five goals and registered two assists across his five appearances in qualifying for Wales, and has scored 17 goals across his 67 caps for his national side which is a very decent record for a player who hasn’t quite hit the heights expected from him domestically.

That being said, this selection is aided by Wilson being in very good form for Fulham this season. He’s netted 10 goals in the Premier League from 66 shots overall (2.61 per 90), with 24 of these attempts finding the target (0.95 per 90). 

Wilson has been very clinical for Wales during qualifying this term, netting five goals from just six shots on target - suggesting that backing Wilson to score may also be worth exploring as an option for this match.

You have to admire Dzeko’s longevity for his country, he’s still a key part of the side at 40 which is well beyond the service that most players give to their national sides.

He’s not lagging behind the rest of the side either, Dzeko has netted five goals across his six starts for Bosnia during qualifying - accounting for 29% of the goals that Bosnia have scored during the qualifying process. No Bosnia player has scored more goals than Dzeko during qualifying, making him a key player to watch in forward areas for the away side in this encounter. 

Dzeko has taken 25 shots across his six starts during qualifying, working out to an average of 4.46 shots per 90. It’s always worth backing players with such a promising shot average for an effort on target, especially if they are much shorter in the shot market which Dzeko is here.

Wales have developed into an entertaining team to watch under Craig Bellamy with Wales seeing 32 goals across their eight qualifying games (4.0 per game). 

Wales scored 21 of these goals (2.6 per game), suggesting that they can cover this line on their own in what is set to be a tough task against a stubborn Bosnia side. Bosnia surprised quite a few during qualifying, beating out Romania for second spot in their group behind Austria.

Bosnia saw 24 goals across their eight qualifying matches (3.0 per game), netting 17 of these goals themselves (2.1 per game). This suggests that they can offer an attacking threat to Wales, with this angle of our bet builder strengthened by the context that surrounds this tie with it being a straight shootout for a spot in the final qualifying round for the World Cup. 

Ethan Ampadu isn’t a massive standout when it comes to winning fouls for his national side, but this selection is more informed by how aggressive Bosnia have been during their qualifying campaign.

Bosnia are quite a bitty side and will look to break up the game as much as they can here. Bosnia averaged 17.40 fouls committed per game across their eight qualifying matches, which is a mammoth average to maintain over those games and suggests that they will come away with a high foul count again here given what is at stake for both nations.

Ampadu is maintaining an average of 1.01 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League for Leeds this season - and we can expect this to rise here when looking over his potential opponents and the general aggression of Bosnia. 

Ampadu will be faced up by Ivan Sunjic (3.54 fouls committed per 90) and Benjamin Tahirovic (2.34 fouls committed per 90), indicating that midfield tends to be a particular hotspot for Bosnia fouls. 

England managed to cover this line on their own in seven of their eight qualifying matches, with the exception of a 1-0 win on the road over Andorra. That narrow victory saw England generate an xG of 4.00, suggesting that they should have covered this line in all eight of their qualifying games.

If you include friendlies, England have seen 2+ goals in each of their last seven matches across all competitions. They take on a Uruguay side that is tutored by Marcelo Bielsa, and most recently lost 5-1 to USA in a friendly, though they did receive a red card in the second half of that contest.

There tends to be quite a bit of flexibility in friendlies with both sides trying new things and giving players a final chance in their systems before selecting their squads for the World Cup. This should lead to a pretty open game, I’m surprised to see BTTS at 2.20 as well, which is worth taking if you are exploring other goals angles for this clash.

Palmer is one of a few England players that probably feel as though they need to show Thomas Tuchel a bit more. He hasn’t been at his best this season, and while I don’t think this jeopardises his chances of being on the plane - he has to show Tuchel something in this camp if he wants a more involved role, given the competition for his position.

Palmer has been injured throughout recent England camps, meaning that he only started one game during qualifying, though he did manage a shot on target in that clash against Andorra.

However, if we look at his record in the Premier League, it would suggest that Palmer shoots enough to give himself opportunities to find the target. He’s taken 45 shots across his 18 starts in the Premier League (2.84 per 90), with 19 of those efforts finding the target (1.20 per 90). 

Darwin Nunez is set to lead the line for Uruguay here and is a familiar face to fans of the Premier League, with Nunez becoming a bit of a marmite figure during his time at Liverpool.

Nunez hasn’t changed one bit from his time at Liverpool, he’s still really erratic and gets loads of shots away, which is why I’m willing to take this line despite England’s exceptionally strong defensive record during qualifying - though it should be noted that they weren’t really tested by any side during qualifying.

Nunez has taken 43 shots across his 14 starts in the Saudi Pro League this season (3.09 shots per 90), with this converting into just six goals. This was the exact issue with Nunez when he was in the Premier League, but it makes him a good option to back for at least three shots in this clash, with the nature of this game likely to suit his chaotic style. 

Manuel Ugarte may not be in favour at Manchester United, but he has been a key player for Uruguay in recent seasons, with 33 caps to his name since 2021. He’s just as aggressive for his national side as he is in the Premier League, and committed 26 fouls across his 14 starts during qualifying (1.85 per 90).

I’m particularly interested in his battle against the fit again Jude Bellingham, who has been called up to the squad and is rumoured to start after a period of time away with injury. Bellingham is incredibly strong when it comes to winning fouls, drawing 10 across his four starts during England’s qualifying campaign (2.54 per 90), which is just a small example of the threat that Bellingham can offer Ugarte in foul exchanges.

Furthermore, Elliot Anderson emerging as a key player in the midfield for England gives Ugarte an extra opportunity to commit fouls, with Anderson also being a very useful player when it comes to drawing them. Anderson is averaging 2.21 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season and should be able to match this when faced with Ugarte’s usual aggression and foul rate.