Morgan Rogers is in scintillating form right now and added another two goals to his tally against Manchester United last weekend, with both being wonderful strikes to earn Villa all three points. Rogers actually started the campaign really slowly, as did Villa on the whole, but has grown into the season and is now one of the form players in the league.

Rogers has registered 10 goal contributions across his 17 appearances in the Premier League (7 goals, 3 assists). He’s always been a creative asset, but now he’s added goals more regularly to his game with Rogers now within one goal of the tally he registered in the Premier League last season. He comes into this clash having netted a brace against both West Ham and Manchester United, so he should be full of confidence.

One thing that is worth noting with Rogers is that he only has an xG of 2.85 in the Premier League this season. This tells us that Rogers likes to take on speculative efforts, and often benefits from doing so, as a quick glance over his goal catalogue this season would further confirm. 

Aston Villa have had 3+ shots on target in each of their last nine Premier League matches, and in 13 of their 17 matches overall in the top flight. The only reason as to why this record isn’t even stronger is due to Villa’s slow start to the campaign - all four instances where Villa failed to cover this line came in the first eight matches of the season.

Chelsea have conceded 3+ shots on target in 10 of their 17 matches in the Premier League this season, and I’d expect them to come under serious pressure at points in this game with the confidence that Villa are currently playing with. Chelsea conceded five shots on target against Newcastle last time out, and looked particularly vulnerable in transition - which is where Villa thrive.

Aston Villa had four shots on target in this fixture last season, despite losing 3-0 on that occasion. They also covered this line very comfortably in the most recent head to head clash with Villa having six shots on target in a 2-1 victory over Chelsea at Villa Park. 

Enzo Fernandez changed the game when he came on against Newcastle last weekend, Chelsea were desperately missing a bit of composure in midfield and Fernandez provided that, creating two chances and making two passes into the final third in his cameo which lasted around 30 minutes.

There aren’t many leaders in this Chelsea side so it is notable when one of them doesn’t play, though Fernandez should come back into the starting frame here given his impact on the side when he came on at St James’ Park. Fernandez’s shot numbers have been really positive this season with Maresca transforming him into a box crasher, in an attempt to give Chelsea more of a goal threat from other areas of the park.

This has been effective with Fernandez netting four goals in the Premier League so far this season - just two goals away from the tally he registered last campaign. He’s had 32 shots across these matches (2.11 per 90) with 15 of these efforts finding the target (0.99 per 90). He’s actually underperforming his xG at the moment (6.18) but this strengthens the argument that Fernandez is operating more regularly in the final third this season. 

Aston Villa are on their longest winning streak since 1914 having won their last 10 matches across all competitions. Despite this impressive run, Villa have only kept three clean sheets across these games - suggesting that Villa’s run has been down to their offensive play rather than their defensive structure, and a bit of luck which you always need in these winning runs.

Unai Emery’s side have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches across all competitions, conceding two goals against West Ham and three goals against Brighton across their last two away trips in the Premier League. Villa have seen 23 goals across their eight away matches in the Premier League this term (12 scored, 11 conceded - 2.8 per game).

Chelsea saw four goals last time out as they contested a 2-2 draw against Newcastle, fighting back from two goals down on that occasion in a spirited second half performance. The Blues have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches across all competitions, and saw both teams find the back of the net in the most recent head to head clash as Villa ran out 2-1 winners over Chelsea back in February.

Wesley Fofana is one of the most aggressive centre backs in the Premier League with the Chelsea defender committing a foul in each of his last five Premier League matches. He’s committed 2+ fouls in three of these games, with this record earning him a yellow card against Everton in Chelsea’s last home game.

This is actually the only caution that Fofana has picked up this season, which is surprising given his foul numbers this term. However, we know that Fofana is capable of testing the patience of the referee from his record in the Premier League last season - where he picked up seven yellow cards across just 14 starts in the top flight.

Aston Villa win more fouls than any other side in the Premier League, and draw quite a few cards from their opponents as a result. Unai Emery’s side have drawn a card from their opponents in all 17 of their Premier League matches this season, drawing 2+ cards in 13 of these games. 

The Jaguars are on the league’s 2nd-longest winning streak right now and might just be the NFL’s in-form team. They’ve earned a play-off spot, but with the Texans on their tai,l they need to keep winning to take the AFC South title. The defense has improved since last year, but it’s Trevor Lawrence who is the difference maker. He’s grown so much this season under Liam Coen and is showing the markings of a quarterback who could be truly elite.

The Jags won 36-19 against the Colts earlier this month, but that game saw Daniel Jones go down injured, and with Phillip Rivers looking serviceable at QB, the score will be closer this time around. However, the Jaguars have now covered the spread in six straight games, are 10-5 ATS overall and 5-1 ATS when they’re the favourite.

How big will the Metcalf absence be? He has over double the receiving yards of any other wideout, but despite that, I think this passing yard total is very low. He will find somebody else on this team to force feed the ball, whether that’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Adam Thielen or his tight ends.

Across the whole season, we’ve seen Rodgers average 204.2 yards per game, and he’s broken this number in eight of 14 games this season, including the previous three matches, as well as the game against the Browns in Week Six.

The line for this game started with the Browns as 4.5-point underdogs, before news of the DK Metcalf suspension shortened that to just 3-point dogs. I like the Browns a lot in this spot. I’m not convinced by the Steelers, in general, and think they’ve been fortunate that the Ravens have been so bad and Joe Burrow was injured for the majority of the season, or they’d not be leading the division.

The Steelers are 3-4 against the spread when they’re away from Pittsburgh that dropping to 1-2 ATS in games in which they’re the favourite on the road. This Browns defence is seriously good, ranking 4th in DVOA and will be the difference maker here. That said, I want to play this very conservatively, so I’m taking the Browns +7.5 points.

This game has the lowest points total on Sunday’s slate with 34.5. I’m always interested in attacking low totals, and this one looks ripe for me to do that, especially if I take an ultra-conservative alternate line of 27.5.

The Over is 5-2 when the Steelers play on the road, and they’ve averaged 24.3 points scored per game. I’d downgrade that number for this game, given the Metcalf suspension and the quality of the Browns defence, but they still hit double digits easily. The Browns have seen their scoring marginally increase under Shedeur Sanders, but the offence just looks better, and he can ensure they do enough on offence to give us the points to cover.

I don’t think Sanders is the man for this team in the long run, but he’s not dreadfu,l and he has some qualities that make me think he could be an NFL quarterback with the right coach and scheme. He’s had just the five starts at BrownS and averaged 211.2 passing yards per game.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa put up 250+ yards on this defence, and while Sanders might not put up his that much, he should still break 178 yards. He isn’t the most accurate, and he takes risk,s but he has the ability to pull something off.