Next stop, Brighton.

Our focus is on Chelsea here, the Blues are really struggling under Liam Rosenior at the moment having lost four of their last five matches - failing to score in all four of these defeats.

Only Bournemouth, Tottenham and Brighton have picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (75 - 2.27 per game). This card count really isn’t surprising, Chelsea’s recruitment model has made them stick to buying young talent which has a few drawbacks, one of which being a lack of composure and being quick to petulance:

23/24: 105 yellow cards (4 red cards) - 1st
24/25: 99 yellow cards (2 red cards) - 1st 
25/26: 75 yellow cards (7 red cards) - 4th*

*5 games remaining 

This game has become a bit of a grudge match too, the constant business between the sides since the new ownership took over has led to this being quite a competitive game. Chelsea picked up four yellow cards and a red card when these sides met earlier in the season - and have picked up 2+ cards in each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides, with three red cards also being shown across these games to the Blues.

Chelsea’s season is collapsing and the calibre of player they have will be frustrated with what is likely to be another tough afternoon for Rosenior’s side. Brighton have drawn at least one card from their opponents in 32 of their 33 Premier League matches this term, drawing 2+ cards in 22 of these games (66%) - including each of their last three games. 

The referee for this game is Craig Pawson, who has handed out 42 yellow cards across his 17 appointments in the Premier League this season (2.47 per game). This is quite a modest card count compared to other Premier League referees, but I think the wider context around the game will force Pawson into exceeding his usual card count. 

I think we’ll see more petulance and careless challenges from Chelsea, aided by the obvious frustration surrounding the club at the moment given how their season is unravelling. Brighton are the perfect side to antagonise them too, given the recent animosity between the sides.

The last two EFL BTTS & No Draw Doubles have won @ 6.5 and 7.5 ✅

This is a huge game at both ends of the Championship table. Oxford find themselves in the relegation zone, five points from safety but crucially holding a game in hand on the teams around them. 

They’ve only kept eight clean sheets across their 43 matches in the Championship this term (5.3%), with only Watford, Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday keeping fewer clean sheets than Oxford in the Championship this season. 

They welcome a Wrexham side that sit just two points below the playoff spots, aiming to catch Hull - the other focus of our BTTS & No Draw angle here - as well as being closely pursued by Derby, who beat Oxford 1-0 last time out. 

Wrexham have seen 51 goals across their 21 away games in the Championship this term (2.42 per game), with there being a pretty equal split in the number of goals scored and conceded (26-25). They do tend to see more chaos at home, but the situation surrounding this game should bring that chaos to Oxford - who desperately need the points themselves. 

This is one of only two games that Oxford have remaining this season, with the next being a near guaranteed three points as they welcome Sheffield Wednesday. They travel to a high flying Millwall in the final game of the campaign, so this has the look of a game that will produce goals at both ends and result in a winner, a draw does nothing for both of these sides at this stage of the season.

The last two EFL BTTS & No Draw Doubles have won @ 6.5 and 7.5 ✅

This is a very similar situation to Oxford v Wrexham with these sides competing at opposite ends of the table, with the weaker side crucially being at home. 

I know it’s a bit bold to back Leicester to score at the moment, they’ve been pretty dire of late - but they probably should have scored at least once in each of their last two games, racking up an xG of 0.91 against Portsmouth last time out and an xG of 1.37 against Swansea in their most recent home game. 

They’ve taken 32 shots across those games without finding the back of the net, suggesting while the general criticism towards Leicester is more than warranted, they have been a little unlucky in recent matches. 

Only Sheffield Wednesday (4) have kept fewer clean sheets than Leicester (5) in the Championship this term. They’ve conceded 31 goals across their 21 home games, but also managed to score 28 goals in these matches, indicating that they can cause Hull plenty of problems.

Hull are under just as much pressure as Leicester at the opposite end of the table, clinging onto the final playoff spot with Wrexham and Derby in close pursuit. The good news for Hull is that they have been pretty strong on the road this season, notably only drawing four of their 21 matches (19%), and seeing 60 goals across these games (2.85 per game). 

The initial league meeting between these sides saw BTTS & No Draw as Hull came away 2-1 winners over Leicester with both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.52-1.48). 

Osasuna have only won two of their 16 away games in LaLiga this season, losing 10 of these games.

Athletic Club have picked up 68% of their total points this season at home (26/38).

No LaLiga side has scored fewer goals on the road than Osasuna this season (11). 

The initial league meeting between these sides finished 1-1, with Athletic Club dominating the xG battle (1.46-0.67).

Mallorca have scored 26 goals across their 16 home games in LaLiga this season (1.62 per game).

Mallorca scored when these sides met earlier in the season in a game that finished 1-1.

Valencia have conceded 28 goals across their 16 away matches in LaLiga this season (1.75 per game).

Mallorca have found the back of the net in each of their last five matches in LaLiga, most recently putting three goals past Rayo Vallecano at home.

Mallorca have the second top scorer in LaLiga this season in Vedat Muriqi who has scored 21 goals this season, accounting for 53% of the total goals that Mallorca have scored in LaLiga.

The initial league meeting between these sides saw this selection land as Madrid ran out 2-1 winners.

This selection has also landed in each of the last three head to head meetings between the sides at the Bernabeu. Madrid covered this goal line on their own in all three games.

Madrid have won 13 of their 16 home games this season, seeing 50 goals across these matches (3.1 per game).

Alaves have only won three of their 16 away games in LaLiga this season, conceding 28 goals across these matches (1.75 per game).

Each of the last eight head to head meetings between these sides have seen BTTS, with the most recent meeting finishing 1-1 last year.

Real Betis have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, failing to win any of these games. 

Real Betis have seen 41 goals across their 16 away games this season (2.56 per game), winning just four of these matches.

Girona have only kept six clean sheets across their 31 matches in LaLiga this season (19%).

I'm all over this Epic Boost, it's great value for what should be an exciting game. Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets across their 23 matches under Liam Rosenior, yet still have the individual quality to cause Brighton problems having registered the highest xG of any side in the Premier League this season (62.0).

This selection landed in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides with Enzo Fernandez striking for Chelsea in the first half, before Brighton scored three goals in the final stages of the game to collect all three points. Goals tend to be common when these sides meet as well, each of the last six head to head meetings since 2023 have seen 3+ goals, with five of these games seeing a goal in both halves.

We're getting great value with this angle @ EVS, compared to 1.44 with most other leading bookmakers.

Cole Palmer hasn't been at his best this season, but he's still taking aim regularly - managing four shots against Manchester United last time out, and maintaining an average of 2.97 shots per 90 across his 20 starts in the Premier League this season.

He's scored nine goals across these starts, most of which have come from the penalty spot which can offer Palmer another route to the target if he can't quite the opportunities from open play. Palmer also has a really promising record against Brighton, he didn't feature when the sides met earlier in the season due to injury but found the target in a recent FA Cup clash between the sides at the Amex. He also netted a hat trick against Brighton last season, with Chelsea coming away 4-2 winners at Stamford Bridge on that occasion.

Chelsea have still been creating chances under Liam Rosenior despite their poor form. The Blues have generated more xG than any other side in the Premier League this season (62.0), and are averaging 4.60 shots on target per game in the Premier League this term which is a record only bettered by four sides.

This boost is clear value, I'm backing Palmer to find the target.

Palmer is clearly not at his best right now, potentially even throwing into question his spot on the plane to the World Cup in the summer, but he’s still taking plenty of efforts. He had four shots against Man United last time out, taking his overall tally for the season to 53 shots across 20 starts (2.97 per 90).

Palmer has scored nine goals from these efforts, which looks not too bad on paper, but five of these goals have been penalties, meaning that Joao Pedro, Enzo Fernandez and Pedro Neto have all bettered his tally from open play in the Premier League this season (4). I still think Palmer has plenty to offer, it just may not be at Chelsea, with the constant turbulence surrounding the club seeming to eat away at him more week on week.

Palmer didn’t feature when these sides met earlier in the season, but Chelsea managed 13 shots despite going down to 10 men early on in the second half. Brighton will look to be quite positive here, so Chelsea should get opportunities again to register a decent shot count.

Liam Delap has received some very harsh criticism this season, most of it due to his bullish nature, which many have put down to clumsiness - but it’s the entire reason that Chelsea were attracted to his signing in the first place.

I thought Delap did ok in Chelsea’s 1-0 defeat to Man United last time out, he committed two fouls in the game and was fouled twice himself. Despite not getting on the scoresheet as frequently as he would have liked to for Chelsea this season, he’s still offered a presence at the top end of the pitch and should get in plenty of duels with Van Hecke and Boscagli here.

Delap has committed 20 fouls across 10 starts in the Premier League this season (2.02 per 90) and maintained an average of 2.48 fouls committed per 90 for Ipswich, also picking up 12 yellow cards last campaign.

Chelsea have struggled in the final third across their recent matches under Rosenior, but I think they’ll be able to get on the scoresheet against a Brighton side that takes plenty of risks. Chelsea fell to a 3-1 defeat to Brighton when these sides met earlier in the season, though did go down to 10 men in the early stages of the second half in that defeat.

Brighton drew 2-2 with Tottenham on the road last time out, deepening concerns about Roberto De Zerbi’s side facing the drop this campaign. Brighton have seen 41 goals across their 16 matches at the Amex Stadium this season (2.56 per game), losing only three of these matches, so this will be a complicated task for the Blues who can’t really drop more points here if they want to push on for any kind of European football next season.

Chelsea have only kept four clean sheets across their 22 matches under Liam Rosenior. These have been cheaply earned shutouts as well against the likes of Pafos, Brentford, Hull and Port Vale - suggesting that there are real defensive problems at Chelsea. They are without their best two centre backs in Chalobah and Colwill, as well as Reece James.

Chelsea have struggled to take their chances from open play this season - no side has produced a higher xG than the Blues this term (62.0), but Chelsea are underperforming on this tally by nine goals, which is an issue that has been recurring over the last few seasons.

This was also evident in their 1-0 defeat to Man United at Stamford Bridge last time out. Chelsea had 21 shots in the game but never really looked like scoring, aside from a couple of headers that hit the bar. This underperformance usually results in Chelsea having a decent corner count, as they do get into dangerous areas in the final third, just failing to actually make this territory count.

Chelsea racked up seven corners against United last time out, and won five corners when these sides met earlier in the season - despite going down to 10 men in that game. Chelsea are averaging 5.44 corners per game across their away matches in the Premier League this term.

Only Lewis Dunk (10) and Diego Gomez (9) have picked up more Premier League yellow cards for Brighton this season than Van Hecke (8). Brighton have also collected the joint-most cards of any side in the division (81) and rank second for fouls committed per game (12.1).

Three of Brighton’s back four were booked on their trip to Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, with Van Hecke among that trio after committing two fouls on the day. The reason Brighton’s defenders feature so high in the card stats is the high line Fabian Hurzeler likes to play, which often forces his defenders into tactical or last-ditch challenges to stop opponents getting beyond the final line of defence before Verbruggen in goal.

Van Hecke is reportedly being monitored by Chelsea at the moment ahead of a potential summer move, which would be the latest bit of business between two clubs who have grown very familiar with each other over the last few transfer windows. He should be in for a battle with Liam Delap, as João Pedro has picked up a minor injury, and that’s a duel to keep an eye on – I can see both players committing a few fouls in this contest.

Only three sides have picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season, one of them being Brighton. Chelsea also lead the way in the Premier League for red cards, picking up seven so far this season. 

Liam Delap has faced sharp criticism this season for his aggressive, bullish style - often labeled as clumsy - but that edge is exactly why Chelsea signed him. In Chelsea’s 1-0 loss to Manchester United, he committed two fouls and was fouled twice himself. While his goal tally has been modest, his physical presence remains a constant threat up top, setting up plenty of duels against Van Hecke and Boscagli.

Across 10 Premier League starts this season, Delap has committed 20 fouls (2.02 per 90), matching his Ipswich average of 2.48 fouls per 90 from last season. He also picked up 12 yellow cards last campaign, and has picked up two cautions so far this term across his limited starts. With Delap expected to continue filling in for the injured João Pedro, his discipline is worth watching closely - particularly the likelihood of him being shown a card.

Leverkusen managed to get on the scoresheet when these sides last met, holding Bayern to a 1-1 draw at the BayArena, aided by Vincent Kompany’s side going down to 10 men, and then later nine men. Leverkusen were impressive in that game, racking up 21 shots and an xG of 3.23 as well as having two goals disallowed.

They obviously had the player advantage in that game, but I think they can cause Bayern problems again here. Leverkusen have quietly been one of the most entertaining sides in Europe after a turbulent start to the campaign. They have an array of young talent, and will be eyeing up this trophy as a potential stepping stone to bigger success next season. 

Leverkusen are priced at 1.28 to find the back of the net here, I don’t think Bayern will have any issues scoring - seeing as they’ve netted in each of their last 53 matches - so this will come down to the home side finding the back of the net. Leverkusen have scored in each of their last eight Bundesliga matches, and have scored 33 goals across their 15 home games in the German top flight this term (2.2 per game).

The first leg of this tie bizarrely took place over a month ago, but were finally at the second leg and I think Atalanta have the edge after earning a 2-2 draw at an empty Stadio Olimpico. Lazio have been really poor this season, they sit ninth in Serie A - 11 points adrift of the European race, which Atalanta are firmly in.

Their record on the road has been particularly poor under Maurizio Sarri, winning just five of their 17 away matches and only managing to score 12 goals across these games. This doesn’t bode well for Maurizio Sarri’s side who travel to take on an Atalanta outfit who have only lost three of their 17 home games in the Italian top flight this term, notably scoring 25 goals across these games and only conceding 14.

I think Lazio may have had a slight chance of coming through this second leg if they had a lead, but the tie being level really suits Atalanta and can lead to the home side finding a way through this tie having already seen off Juventus in the quarter finals of the Coppa Italia. 

These sides played at the start of the month in a contest that produced four goals with Strasbourg coming away 3-1 winners. That game saw Strasbourg generate an xG of 2.86 from 16 shots overall, suggesting that they could cover this goal line again on their own given the confidence they are currently playing with under Gary O’Neil.

Strasbourg have seen 3+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions, most recently falling to a 3-0 defeat at home by Rennes. They also recently reached the semi finals of the Conference League after coming back from 2-0 down to win 4-0 at home, so this is a side that should have plenty of confidence and momentum even despite that slightly bruising defeat against Rennes last time out.

Strasbourg also saw 3+ goals in the last round of the cup as they saw off Reims 2-1 at home, building on the 3-1 win they managed over Monaco in the round of 16. This means that Strasbourg have seen 3+ goals in each of their knockout round ties of the Coupe De France this term, setting the stage for more goals here.