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The top four race looks really open this season and Chelsea have a real advantage by not being in Europe. 

Chelsea are not as far away from the Champions League spots as their 10th placed finish last year would suggest.

The Blues pretty much tanked their season after Enzo Maresca left the club and were around the top three positions while he was still in his role. 

Chelsea have signed Morgan Rogers as well as Marco Palestra already this summer and are heavily linked with a move for Maxence Lacroix at the time of writing. 

These additions add to the likes of Emegha and Quenda who had already secured moves to the West London side.

These signings signal a shift from Chelsea’s previous obsession with only securing young talent. Most of these players are also very tall and physical, an aspect that Chelsea desperately fell short for last year. 

Xabi Alonso is clearly a very capable manager having won the league title with Bayer Leverkusen and maintaining a 71% win percentage as Real Madrid boss.

He’s coming into an environment where the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City, the two powerhouses of the last 10 years, have new managers - a terrain which could be perfect for Alonso to finally make this Chelsea side competitive in the Premier League with only one game per week.

Stockport faced heartbreak in the League One Play-Off Final at the end of last season as they were beaten 4-1 by Bolton at Wembley. 

That was the second consecutive season in which Stockport have finished third and gone out in the playoffs, which tells me that they are a club that are doing a lot of things right at this level and should have a decent stab at getting out of League One at the third time of asking.

Stockport really didn’t do much wrong when you look at their underlying numbers from last season, they ranked within the top 5 sides for most key metrics and also had one of the league’s top scorers in Kyle Wootton.

Stockport were a similar price to register a Top 6 finish last year and I think the market is underestimating their chances again as a side that now understands League One quite well. Stockport are priced at 5.50 to earn promotion this year, which is a price also worth looking at. 

Barnet are definitely a side worth keeping an eye on this year after finishing eighth at the first time of asking after winning promotion to the EFL.

They finished just two points below a spot in the playoffs last year and notably had the second best away record of any side in the division. It was their inconsistent home form which saw them fall short of a Top 7 finish.

Barnet are third favourites to be promoted from League Two this term, only sitting behind Salford City and Bristol Rovers. We’ve got some insurance by backing them for a Top 7 finish even if they slightly underperform from pre-season expectations.

The Championship extending the number of playoff spots down to eighth is a really significant change this season and Wrexham could easily benefit.

Phil Parkinson’s side finished seventh last season, just two points away from Hull who eventually earned promotion to the Premier League via the playoffs. 

That finish would be enough this year for Wrexham to have a chance of promotion and I think we’ll see the Welsh side battling in the top half of the Championship again this term.

Wrexham have a really deep squad with a wealth of Championship and EFL experience that can aid them in a push for the playoffs this year. 

I think there’s a decent price on this when considering that the likes of Norwich, Sheffield United and Birmingham are shorter than Wrexham to secure a Top 8 Finish - I’d back Wrexham to be just as competitive as those sides.

There are still a few unknowns about Wolves heading into the new season as a relegated side from the Premier League last season, but they should have enough quality to see off Port Vale here.

Wolves have brought in the likes of Kieran Trippier and Raul Jimenez to add a bit of experience to their squad for what is set to be a gruelling campaign and they have shown promise in their friendly matches - winning three of their four matches, only losing to Real Sociedad.

Port Vale haven’t had as many games to prepare for the new season as Wolves, and naturally have a lower level of quality in the side. They were relegated from League One last season, winning just six of their 23 away matches in the division.

These sides faced off as recently as February, with Wycombe coming away 3-1 winners on that occasion - despite Stevenage registering a superior xG (1.49).

The two sides will face off again a few times this campaign with both sitting in League One, so we can expect this to be a fairly even contest with not much being between the teams.

Wycombe netted 45 goals at home in League One last season (1.95 per game), which was a tally only bettered by three sides in the division. Their home games overall saw an average of 2.95 goals per game.

Stevenage notably conceded 71% of their total goals in League One on the road last term (33), seeing 2.39 goals per game overall on their travels.

This is one of the more exciting ties in the early round of the EFL Cup and I think we’ll see goals given that the most recent meeting between these sides in May finished 2-2.

Both sides recorded a healthy xG in that game (1.70-2.12) with there being 31 match shots and 13 match shots on target - indicating that this should once again be quite an open contest.

Wrexham scored as many as they conceded away from home last season (28) which is a pattern that I expect to continue this campaign with the Welsh side seeing an overall average of 2.91 goals per game in the Championship last term.

Goal Sheet Rating - 8.40 

Alkmaar saw 65 goals across their 17 home matches in the Eredivisie last season (3.82 per game).

Den Haag earned promotion from the Eerste Divisie last campaign, notably losing just four of their 19 away matches and seeing 60 goals across these games (3.15 per game).

Goal Sheet Rating - 8.23

Each of the last four head to head meetings between these sides, stretching back to 2024, has seen 3+ goals.

PSV only lost two of their 17 home games in the Dutch top flight last season, scoring 58 goals (3.41 per game) - suggesting that they could cover this line on their own.

Only two sides in the Eredivisie conceded more goals than Fortuna Sittard last season (63 - 1.85 per game).

Goal Sheet Rating - 7.55

Preston have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 15 matches, including all four of their friendlies.

Preston conceded more goals than they scored at home in the Championship last season (28-30), working out to an average of 2.52 goals per game.

Huddersfield have seen BTTS in both of their friendly matches against Birmingham and Blackburn ahead of the new season.

Huddersfield saw exactly 3.0 goals per game across their 23 away matches in League One last season.

Goal Sheet Rating - 7.70

Rochdale earned promotion to the EFL in dramatic fashion last season, beating Boreham Wood on penalties after a 2-2 draw.

That was the same scoreline and method they posted to reach this round of the cup, having seen off Tranmere on penalties in their EFL Cup qualifying match.

This will be a free hit for Rochdale against a Bradford side who will have other priorities as they look to escape from League One after falling short against Bolton on the playoffs last season.

Goal Sheet Rating - 8.18

Each of the last six head to head meetings between these sides, stretching back to 2022, have seen 3+ goals.

Bodo Glimt are currently in a tense title race against the side that beat them to top spot last season in Viking.

Bodo Glimt have seen 26 goals across their eight away matches in the Eliteserien (3.25 per game).

Valerenga have seen 27 goals across their eight home games in the Eliteserien this term (3.37 per game). 

The Championship can be a bit of a tricky league at times, but I do think West Ham have more than enough to come straight back up to the Premier League at the first time of asking.

That isn’t their focus here in the early stages of the EFL Cup, but it is a good opportunity to face off against a fellow Championship side and allow Nuno Espírito Santo to get a gauge for where West Ham are at after losing some key players to big money over the summer.

Portsmouth finished just eight points clear of the drop zone in the Championship last term, and are tipped to struggle again at the bottom of the table this campaign. 

They only managed to win six of their 23 away matches, notably conceding 41 goals across these games - only Sheffield Wednesday (45) conceded more away goals than Portsmouth in the Championship last season. 

There was a 32 point gap between these sides in League Two last season, and I think we’ll see that disparity in this cup tie with Salford looking even stronger than they did last term.

Salford finished just one point below an automatic promotion spot last term and are one of the favourites to go up this season after seven seasons stuck in League Two.

Only Bromley and Cambridge, who both earned promotion last season, picked up more points at home than Salford in League Two last campaign. Salford won 14 of their 23 matches (60%) and notably only conceded 24 goals across these games. 

By contrast, only Crawley (15) picked up fewer points on the road in League Two last term than Shrewsbury (16) with this translating to just four wins from their 23 outings.

MK Dons maintained the best away record of any side in League Two last season, losing just four of their 23 away matches and netting 45 goals in the process (1.95 per game).

This is an obvious step up in quality for Paul Warne’s side, but they’ll fancy themselves to make a bit of a statement with there being plenty of optimism around MK Dons’ chances of being competitive in League One this term.

Norwich really struggled to keep sides out at Carrow Road in the Championship last season, conceding more goals than they scored (28-27) and only winning nine of their 23 home matches.

Norwich are the favourites here, but I think MK Dons can cause problems and get on the scoresheet to make this an entertaining contest. 

Cardiff earned promotion back to the Championship from League One last season and were quite entertaining to watch in doing so.

Brian Barry-Murphy has a very interesting style of play which comes from the Manchester City academy and it does open up the Welsh side to be involved in high scoring matches.

Cardiff netted 50 goals across their 23 home games in League One last term (2.17 per game), only Lincoln (53) scored more goals at home than the Bluebirds.

Both of their official friendly matches produced 3+ goals, with Cardiff losing 6-0 to Midtjylland and coming away 4-1 winners over Roma. 

Swindon’s 23 away matches in League Two last season produced 64 goals (2.78 per game), and both of their friendly matches against Crystal Palace and Bristol City have also produced 3+ goals. 

These sides faced off as recently as April in a game that finished 2-2 with both sides registering 15 shots and at least five shots on target.

Emmen finished just six points away from the playoff spots last term, seeing 66 goals across their 19 home matches (3.47 per game). 

Roda did finish in the playoff spots last term but didn’t get much joy, eventually being knocked out by Waalwijk narrowly over the two legs. 

Roda notably boasted the second best away record in the Eerste Divisie last term, seeing 59 goals across their 19 matches on the road (3.10 per game). 

Vitesse were deducted 12 points in the Eerste Divisie last season due to financial difficulties, which actually cost them a spot in the playoffs - so they are a much better side than their 15th place finish last term would suggest.

Their 19 home matches in the Eerste Divisie last term produced 61 goals (3.21 per game) with Vitesse notably ranking in the top half for home goals in the division last campaign. 

They take on a Waalwijk side that I leaned on regularly for goals last season. They finished sixth in the Eerste Divisie, bowing out in the playoffs to Wilhelm II. Their 19 away games produced 65 goals (3.42 per game).

Porto won the league title last season, finishing six points clear of Sporting and only losing two of their 34 matches domestically.

Porto didn’t lose a single game at home last season, winning 14 of their 17 matches. They scored 33 goals across these games (1.94 per game) and should get the better of an Alverca side who only won three of their 17 away games last term.

Alverca conceded 29 goals across those away matches and will struggle to contain the attacking talent of Porto given that they were particularly poor on the road last term.

Two of the last three head to head meetings between these sides have seen BTTS, with the exception of Twente’s 5-0 win over Heerenveen in the most recent meeting which is a real anomaly.

Heerenveen finished just seven points behind Twente in the Eredivisie last season, notably scoring 33 goals across their 17 home games (1.94 per game). This tally represents 57% of their total goals from last term, so they’re clearly capable of getting on the scoresheet at home.

Twente were competitive on the road last season, losing just three of their 17 away matches. Those games produced 54 goals, working out to an average of 3.17 goals per game.

BTTS has landed in each of the last two head to head meetings between the sides, including the most recent clash back in January where Zulte-Waregem came away 2-1 winners with an xG of 2.31.

Genk only managed to win eight of their 20 away matches in the Belgian Pro League last season, notably scoring as many goals as they conceded across these games (31), working out to an average of 3.1 goals per game. 

Zulte-Waregem have seen BTTS in both of their friendly matches in the build up to the season, coming away 3-2 winners over Sparta Rotterdam. Their home games last season saw an average of 2.72 goals per game.

Lillestorm’s recent results may look alarming, but they have played the top two sides in the Eliteserien across recent weeks and now have a more favourable matchup against Rosenborg.

Lillestorm sit fourth in the Eliteserien, seven points clear of their opponents here. Lillestorm have a pretty black and white record at home, winning four and losing three of their games in front of their own supporters so far.

However, Rosenborg have really struggled on their travels with just one win from their seven away games domestically - scoring just five goals and conceding 12 in the process.

Rosenborg have failed to beat Lillestorm as the away side in each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides.

Sporting finished second in Liga Portugal last season, eight points behind the eventual league champions in Porto. 

A similar domestic battle is likely to take place this season and Sporting should be able to start strongly judging by their performances in pre-season and strong away record last term. 

Sporting have won all four of their friendly matches ahead of the new season, beating the likes of Celtic, Strasbourg, Monaco and Nottingham Forest in these games.

Sporting didn’t lose a single game away from home in Liga Portugal last season, winning 12 of their 17 matches - only Porto (43) picked up more points on the road than Sporting last year.

Nijmegen were one of the standout performers across Europe last season, finishing third in the Eredivisie and sitting just six points behind Feyenoord.

Only PSV (101) scored more goals than Nijmegen (77) in the Eredivisie last season, so they’re also one of the most entertaining sides in the division and that scoring power should see them over the line against Telstar here.

Nijmegen only lost three of their 17 home games in the Eredivisie last season, while Telstar only recorded four victories across their 17 matches on the road - notably only scoring 18 goals across these games.

Viking find themselves in a title race with Bodo Glimt again after beating them to the trophy last year in a close battle.

They’re one of the most dominant teams in the Eliteserien having won 12 of their 15 matches, notably winning all six of their home games - scoring 23 goals across these matches.

Sarpsborg sit mid table but are likely to struggle to match the scoring power of Viking seeing as they’ve only scored 10 goals across their eight away games, winning two of these matches. 

Bodo Glimt have a one point lead at the top of the Elitserien, notably losing just one of their eight away matches so far.

Bodo Glimt have won each of their last five league matches heading into this one as they look to maintain their spot at the top of the division. 

They’ve won all of these games to nil, so they carry real momentum into this game against a Valerenga side who they have beaten in eight of the last 10 head to head meetings.

PSV have won each of the last four head to head meetings between these sides, stretching back to 2024. 

PSV are quite clearly the best side in the Eredivisie, they won the title by 19 points last year - building on their triumph in the 24/25 season when they edged out Ajax by a point on the final day.

PSV unsurprisingly picked up the most points at home of any side in the division during the 25/26 campaign, winning 13 of their 17 matches and netting 58 goals in the process. 

Goal Sheet Rating - 8.18

Each of the last six head to head meetings between these sides, stretching back to 2022, have seen 3+ goals.

Bodo Glimt are currently in a tense title race against the side that beat them to top spot last season in Viking.

Bodo Glimt have seen 26 goals across their eight away matches in the Eliteserien (3.25 per game).

Valerenga have seen 27 goals across their eight home games in the Eliteserien this term (3.37 per game). 

There was a 32 point gap between these sides in League Two last season, and I think we’ll see that disparity in this cup tie with Salford looking even stronger than they did last term.

Salford finished just one point below an automatic promotion spot last term and are one of the favourites to go up this season after seven seasons stuck in League Two.

Only Bromley and Cambridge, who both earned promotion last season, picked up more points at home than Salford in League Two last campaign. Salford won 14 of their 23 matches (60%) and notably only conceded 24 goals across these games. 

By contrast, only Crawley (15) picked up fewer points on the road in League Two last term than Shrewsbury (16) with this translating to just four wins from their 23 outings.

Goal Sheet Rating - 7.55

Molde have seen BTTS in each of their last eight matches across all competitions.

Two of the last three head to head meetings between these sides have seen BTTS.

Goal Sheet Rating - 7.00 

Twente saw an average of 3.17 goals per game on the road in the Eredivisie last season.

Two or the last three head to head meetings between these sides have seen BTTS.

Goal Sheet Rating - 9.48 

St Gallen have seen 3+ goals in both of their league games so far this season.

St Gallen saw 56 goals across their 19 home games last season (2.94 per game).

Each of the last two head to head meetings between these sides have finished 2-2.

Goal Sheet Rating - 8.18 

The most recent head to head meeting saw exactly three goals, as Zulte came away 2-1 winners. 

Genk saw an average of 3.1 goals per game across their away matches in the Belgian Pro League last term. 

Zulte saw five goals in their final pre-season friendly, coming away 3-2 winners over Sparta Rotterdam. 

Goal Sheet Rating - 8.33

Both of these sides have seen 3+ goals in both of their league matches at the start of the Swiss Super League season.

Lugano boasted the best home record of any side in the Swiss Super League last season, seeing 56 goals across their 19 matches (2.94 per game).

Zurich saw the exact same number of goals (56) across their 19 away games.