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AFCON Final Bet Builder @ 4.33

Both sides have been defensively sound throughout the tournament so far, which has been a key reason for their success. Senegal were able to keep a strong Egypt side at bay in the semi-finals, restricting the Pharaohs to just three shots. That result meant Senegal have conceded only twice from their six AFCON games so far. 

However, that isn’t enough to crown them as the best defensive unit, as host nation Morocco have only conceded one goal. The Atlas Lions were equally as impressive on Wednesday, as they progressed past Nigeria on penalties. The Super Eagles had been one of the best attacking sides at AFCON so far,  having scored 14 goals prior to the semi-finals, but they were limited to just two shots in regular time by Morocco. 

Walid Regragui’s men come into the final as marginal favourites, and will hope to secure the trophy with the backing of a strong home support.

Both semi-final games were quite cagey, with neither side wanting to make a costly mistake. Egypt’s tactics were particularly pragmatic against Senegal, as the Pharaohs spent the vast majority of the game camped in their own defensive third until they conceded. By then, it was too late to establish a foothold in the game, and they succumbed to a 1-0 loss.

Egypt managed just one corner in a timid performance, but Senegal had conceded at least four corners in both knockout matches prior. For the first time in this tournament, Senegal are priced as pre-match underdogs, so it could be a real test for them.

Morocco are expected to be a lot more progressive in their approach than Egypt were, and they managed four corners against Nigeria in the previous round. That means they have hit four or in all six AFCON matches so far, racking up seven corners against Cameroon in the quarter-finals. The over 4.5 line is an appealing price towards evens, and Morocco's corners totals in the tournament suggest they'll force their fair share in the final.

Morocco have drawn the 2nd-most fouls of any AFCON side this season, with their opponents also averaging 3.67 yellow cards per game. The Atlas Lions have been an incredibly difficult side to contain, and this will be a real test for Senegal. 

Idrissa Gueye, in particular, could be in for a tough night, operating in defensive midfield for the Lions. The Everton man is averaging 1.67 fouls per 90 at AFCON this year, and has registered multiple infringements in three of his six matches. Considering he will be up against the likes of Brahim Diaz, Ismael Saibari and Abde Ezzalzouli, that figure could be set to rise sharply. Those three have combined for a ridiculous 9.03 fouls drawn per 90 across Morocco’s six AFCON games, ranking 1st, 4th and 12th, respectively, for total fouls won in the tournament.

The PSG man has been fit enough to start all three knockout matches, which has been a massive boost for Morocco - he has recovered from injury at the perfect time, and should play a massive role in the final. 

The 27-year-old had two shots against Nigeria in the semi-final, and is always looking to break forward. He is no stranger to a big game, and managed to get on the scoresheet in the Champions League final last season. 

Hakimi is averaging 1.49 shots per 90 across all competitions for PSG this season, and has registered a shot in eight out of ten matches when playing the full 90. Despite featuring as a right back on paper, he is given just as much attacking licence for Morocco, and will be a candidate to take free kicks.

Football

Aston Villa v Everton Bet Builder @ 3.19

That translated to six corners, while Everton contributed an additional two to get over this mark. This selection landed comfortably when the sides last met, as there were a total of 13 corners at the Hill Dickinson Stadium - Everton contributed 10, and Aston Villa managed the other three.  

The Toffees are averaging exactly 9.0 corners per game on their travels this season, with this bet landing in each of their last three matches. There were a total of 11 corners on their last away day against Nottingham Forest, with the hosts amassing nine corners at the City Ground. Prior to that, Burnley even managed six corners against Everton, highlighting how David Moyes’ side haven’t been too strong at the back in recent games. 

Meanwhile, Aston Villa are averaging 9.4 corners per game across all competitions at Villa Park this season, with 5.3 corners for, and 4.1 corners conceded.

Morgan Rogers was involved in a post-match scrap against Tottenham last time out, but the England international stole the headlines for his stellar performance in an advanced midfield role. Rogers has been in exceptional form in recent weeks, and has scored five goals in his last seven starts across all competitions. He is averaging 3.6 shots per game in that stretch, and has registered multiple shots in all seven of those matches. 

Last time out at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the 23-year-old accrued a total of four shots, with two of those hitting the target. Rogers has been able to really express himself and play with confidence in recent weeks, and has landed this selection in his last two. Aston Villa should once again find plenty of chances against an out-of-sorts Everton side, and Rogers is the one to watch.

Morgan Rogers has contributed a lot more than just goals for Villa this season - he also has his fair share of defensive work to get through, and the Englishman has committed more fouls than any other Aston Villa player across all competitions. John McGinn ranks 2nd, and has registered just one infringement less, but the Scottish international has played fewer games than Rogers this term. 

McGinn is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90 in all competitions this campaign and has landed a foul in 11 of his last 13 appearances. He registered two fouls when he faced Everton earlier in the season, because he plays on the same flank as Jack Grealish. The winger has drawn the most fouls of any Premier League player this season, and might not get the warmest of welcomes back to Villa Park. McGinn isn’t the type of player to pull out of a challenge, and draws an excellent matchup this weekend to commit a foul.

Unai Emery’s team are one of the strongest sides in the Premier League at home, with only Manchester City (26) and Arsenal (29) picking up more points at home this season than Aston Villa (25). Villa have won eight of their 10 home matches this term, with only Newcastle and Crystal Palace managing to take points off Villa at home this season - those games were also right at the start of the season, when Villa were really struggling, so Emery’s side have been faultless at home since those early blips. 

Unai Emery’s side have scored 18 goals across those matches, and only conceded eight. This tightness at the back is likely to prove problematic for Everton, who have only managed to score nine goals across their 10 away matches in the Premier League this term. Everton’s recent form has also been quite poor, with their only win across their last five matches coming against a relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest side.

Everton have lost on their last four trips to Villa Park in the Premier League, with the Toffees losing 3-2 in this fixture last season. They have managed to win at Villa Park in the EFL Cup in this period, though that clash saw both sides heavily rotate, and we can expect Villa to have a near full strength side here.

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