Vitalii Mykolenko is priced at 2.1 to draw a foul against Nottingham Forest, which implies less than a 50% probability. However, this bet has landed in 11 out 15 starts this season whenever the fullback has played at least 45 minutes.

That is a 73.3% hit-rate, with Mykolenko averaging 1.05 fouls drawn per 90 minutes. That average rises to 1.25 at Goodison Park – only Iliman Ndiaye has won more free-kicks than the Ukrainian this term.

Sky Bet are priced at 1.57 for this selection to land, with an implied chance of 63%, notably shorter than Paddy Power.

Given that Mykolenko has been fouled in each of his last four home games, and in seven out of eight in total this season at Goodison Park, this price of 2.1 looks inflated.