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Como v AC Milan Bet Builder @ 4.00

AC Milan aren’t in the best of form coming into this clash - they were fortunate to rescue a point against a struggling Fiorentina side last time out, as Christopher Nkunku equalised in the 90th minute. It was a similar story in the match prior against Genoa - the visitors led from the 28th minute, but were pegged back by a stoppage-time goal from Rafael Leao. The Rossoneri have looked a bit vulnerable in recent weeks, which Como will hope to exploit.

Cesc Fabregas’ men have been notable overachievers this season, currently sitting 6th in the league, having lost just three league games this campaign. Two of those defeats came recently at the start of December, but Como have bounced back strongly with a four-game unbeaten run since then. They have been impressive on home turf this term, boasting an impressive record of five wins and four draws from their nine league matches.

This is a clash between two sides fighting towards the top of the standings - they are currently separated by just six points. AC Milan had the upper hand in this head-to-head matchup last season, completing the league double over Como, but it wasn’t one-way traffic. It finished 2-1 when the sides met at the San Siro, and 2-1 in the reverse fixture, but Como were unfortunate to leave empty-handed when they last faced the Rossoneri at home. 

They accrued 12 shots and two big chances worth 1.27 xG, while AC Milan had some quality chances. They also registered 12 shots, hitting the target six times. Como have made shrewd summer signings, so they looked much stronger this season. Over 1.5 goals has landed in nine of their 11 home matches across all competitions this campaign, while Como managed to score twice against Juventus.

Jesus Rodriguez is averaging 1.15 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and has seen a notable increase in recent weeks. He has registered a total of nine fouls in his last four starts alone, including four fouls against Lecce. Rodriguez can, at times, be a bit clumsy in his challenges - he was recently shown a yellow card against Udinese, and was sent off earlier in the season. The 20-year-old tends to press quite intensely and has been playing with increased aggression in the last few matches. 

The main focus here is his matchup against Alexis Saelemaekers on the flank. The Belgian international is averaging 2.33 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has drawn seven infringements in his last two matches alone. He has drawn the most fouls of any AC Milan player this campaign, and has a tendency to go down softly under contact to buy his side soft free kicks.

Nico Paz played a pivotal role in that one, as he provided the assist for Marc-Oliver Kempf to score after just four minutes, before getting on the scoresheet himself in the second half. He has been the primary attacking threat for Como this season, with six goals and six assists under his belt after 20 appearances.

He is averaging 3.63 shots per 90 across all competitions this term, rising to 3.83 when playing at home, and he seems to take things up a gear when he faces the top sides. Paz racked up five shots against Inter Milan at the start of December, and three shots against Roma in the game after that.

Paz accrued a total of five shots when he last faced AC Milan, hitting the target with three of those. He was absent in the home fixture, but he should be looking forward to this matchup.

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