This is quite a low line, and Everton managed to cover it when the sides clashed at the Etihad earlier on in the campaign - registering exactly three corners. 

Set pieces have always been one of the main strengths of David Moyes’ sides and they have become the flavour of the Premier League this season with this campaign seeing more goals from set pieces than we have in each of the last 10 Premier League seasons. 

Everton are averaging 4.21 corners per game in the Premier League this season, a metric that jumps to 5.06 corners per game when looking at their games at the Hill Dickinson stadium. 

City are conceding 4.12 corners per game on the road in the Premier League, and there are bound to be moments where City look a little unsettled here given the pressure they are under following Arsenal’s comfortable win over Fulham on Saturday.

James Tarkowski and Erling Haaland have a bit of an ongoing rivalry which crops up whenever Everton play Manchester City. It’s not quite as heated as the animosity that exists between Gabriel and Haaland, which we saw flare up recently, but it’s still notable and I think the pair will be in each other’s faces again here.

Tarkowski committed a foul when these sides met earlier in the season, one of 26 fouls he’s committed across his 33 starts on the whole in the Premier League this season (0.79 per 90). This record has seen Tarkowski pick up six yellow cards, and he has committed a foul in three of his last five Premier League appearances.

Erling Haaland was fouled twice in City’s win over Everton earlier in the campaign, and has actually improved this part of his game this term with Haaland getting better at dropping in a bit deeper and linking up play for his teammates, as we can see from the seven goals he’s set up this term. Haaland is averaging 0.80 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season. 

Pep Guardiola has now found the perfect balance for his frontline having tinkered with it all season. Doku, Cherki, Semenyo and Haaland form a menacing front four that have all the attributes to cause opposition sides problems in a number of ways.

Semenyo and Haaland are usually the ones that end up finishing the moves that City put together, while Cherki and Doku focus on creating chances and space for those two. Semenyo has been one of the few wingers in the Premier League that can boast a decent goal tally this term, having netted 15 goals in the Premier League which is a tally only bettered by Igor Thiago and Erling Haaland himself.

He’s achieved this tally from 76 shots (2.42 per 90), seeing 38 of these efforts find the target (1.21 per 90). Semenyo has had a shot on target in two of his last five Premier League matches, which may not sound convincing - but his record across the season as a whole is much stronger.

Semenyo should get chances to find the target here against an Everton side who can be quite stubborn and conceded seven shots on target when the sides met earlier in the campaign.

Pep Guardiola’s record at the end of a season in the Premier League is a joke, and can’t be ignored even with Manchester City facing a much tougher test than Arsenal did over the weekend. Liverpool are probably the only side to actually know how it feels being in this situation, they constantly thought they had done enough but City kept coming back at them, even in the most unlikely circumstances.

Manchester City have won four of the last five head to head meetings between these sides, winning the last two to nil. They’re enjoying their best form of the season so far having won each of their last six matches, including beating the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal as well as progressing to the FA Cup final with victory over Southampton at Wembley last time out.

They face an Everton side that have only won one of their last five Premier League matches, losing each of their last two against Liverpool and West Ham. City have avoided defeat in 13 of their 17 away games this season, winning nine of these matches, and have notably scored the second most goals of any side away from home in the Premier League this season (28).

Julian Alvarez was Atletico Madrid’s best player in the first leg meeting between the sides last week, scoring from the penalty spot to level the contest from six shots overall - two of which managed to find the target. 

There aren’t many players that can muster this short of shot volume against a side as good at limiting chances as Arsenal are, showing how crucial Alvarez is to Diego Simeone’s side. 

He’s already made a bit of history by scoring more goals than any other Atletico Madrid player in a single Champions League campaign (10), which is two goals more than he’s scored in LaLiga.

Alvarez has taken 45 shots across his 14 starts in the Champions League this season (3.45 per 90), seeing 22 of these efforts find the target (1.69 per 90). He had three shots when these sides met earlier in the campaign and was unlucky to not find the target with one of his efforts coming back off the crossbar.

Viktor Gyokeres gave his best performance in an Arsenal shirt so far over the weekend with a brace against Fulham as Mikel Arteta’s side took a step closer to the title with a 3-0 win over the Cottagers at home. Gyokeres was bright away from the goals too, expertly dealing with Joachim Andersen and winning a foul in the 64 minutes he played.

Gyokeres was hauled down once when the sides met last week and was fouled four times when the sides met in the league phase of the competition. He’s averaging 1.87 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League this term, which is an average that holds pretty steady when looking at his games in the Premier League across a larger sample size (1.19 fouls won per 90).

Gyokeres is likely to face up against a centre-back duo of Pubill and Hancko, who struggled to contain Gyokeres last week. Both centre-backs committed at least one foul, and Hancko was shown a yellow card in the first leg draw between the sides.

Arsenal played some of the best football I've seen from them all season in their 3-0 win over Fulham last time out, crucially managing nine shots on target and drawing six saves from Bernd Leno in the Arsenal goal. Oblak was forced into just one save last week, but I can see him being busier here with Arsenal playing in front of their own crowd.

Oblak has been forced into making 32 saves across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (2.91 per 90). This is just a touch below the line we require here, and I’d expect Oblak to cover it if he can raise his save percentage numbers (60.4%) which is quite low for a keeper of his quality and experience. 

If Atletico Madrid are to find a way through this tie, Oblak will be central to their efforts. He’ll be tested by a frontline that should have quite a bit of confidence having easily pushed Fulham to one side over the weekend as Arsenal close on in a potentially historic season.

I think Atletico Madrid had to take some sort of lead into this game to have a chance of qualifying for the final, the draw from the first leg isn’t a disastrous result but it also doesn’t look like enough when scanning over Arsenal’s impressive record at home in the Champions League this season.

Arsenal have not lost a single game in the Champions League this campaign, in fact they’ve only trailed for 43 minutes in the competition all season which was in their 1-1 draw with Leverkusen in the early stages of the knockout rounds. Their control and defensive stability is perfect for the structure of the Champions League and are traits that Atletico Madrid don’t really have with Simeone trying to move away from a reliance on that approach this season.

Arsenal have won five of their six matches at home in the Champions League this season, with the exception of a 0-0 draw against Sporting last time out, and have only conceded five goals across the entirety of the competition. I think it’ll be hard for Atletico Madrid to find a way through Arteta’s stubborn side, with Arsenal well prepared to take advantage.