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Bayern Munich v PSG Player Matchup ⚔️ @ 2.10

We’re pitting Kvaratskhelia up against Stanisic, who admittedly doesn’t have standout foul numbers but I think he’ll struggle at times with the rotations and movement of the PSG front three.

Kvaratskhelia (2.42 fouls won per 90) and Doue (1.87 fouls won per 90) switch positions all the time, there isn’t a defined structure to the PSG frontline so Stanisic will find himself up against a variety of opponents who are all pretty good at winning fouls.

He’ll also have to contend with Nuno Mendes at times when the fullbacks meet in advanced areas. Mendes has won 20 fouls across his 15 starts in the Champions League this season (1.50 per 90), adding to the threat posed by Doue and Kvaratskhelia. 

Kvaratskhelia is such a difficult player to stop when he gets going, he didn’t quite manage to show this side of his game in the first leg with Bayern only committing four fouls - but I’d expect that to increase here and Kvaratskhelia to be a real threat operating down either wing.

Kvaratskhelia has won 26 fouls across his 12 starts in the Champions League this season (2.42 per 90), and is also averaging 2.14 successful dribbles per 90 in the competition. He’s been fouled 4+ times in two of his last five Champions League appearances, showing how the winger can draw challenges with ease when he’s at his best.

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Bayern Munich v PSG Bet Builder 🧱 @ 4.20

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has scored more goals than any other PSG player in the Champions League this season (10), adding two goals to his tally in the first leg as he helped PSG record a 5-4 win over Bayern Munich in Paris.

Interestingly, he’s the most generously priced of the forward players for a shot on target here. The market is understandably quite short in general after the nine goal thriller we had last week, but this is still at a decent price given Kvaratskhelia’s overall shot and shot on target record in the Champions League.

Kvaratskhelia has taken 44 shots across his 12 starts in the Champions League this season (4.10 per 90), seeing 16 of these efforts find the target (1.49 per 90). He’s actually scored more goals in the Champions League than he has in Ligue 1 (7), showing just how much Kvaratskhelia loves this competition and I think he’ll be able to make a positive impact again.

Joao Neves committed a foul in the first leg meeting between the sides last week and generally is the most aggressive of the PSG midfield trio. He’s committed nine fouls across his 11 starts in the Champions League this season (0.87 per 90), and I’d expect him to get through a bit more work here now that PSG are the away side.

PSG employ a counter press which allows them to suffocate the opposition. This doesn’t work as effectively against a side like Bayern who are willing to match that intensity, but it does still lead to Neves and the front three of PSG being roped into challenges to stop the opposition finding a way through their structure. 

I’m particularly interested in Joao Neves’ battle with Jamal Musiala, who has won six fouls across his two starts in the Champions League this season (2.29 per 90). This is a small sample size, but winning fouls is a strong part of Musiala’s game. Bayern drew 14 fouls from PSG in the first leg meeting, committing just four fouls themselves in the game.

Bayern Munich were not that aggressive in the first leg meeting, but that attitude is likely to change here given that they are trailing in the tie and need to win to get through to the final for the first time under Vincent Kompany.

Bayern Munich have collected 22 yellow cards across their 13 Champions League matches this season (1.69 per 90) and have also picked up two red cards. They picked up four cards when travelling to the Parc Des Princes in the league phase of the competition, including a red card which was shown to Luis Diaz.

The referee for this game is Joao Pinherio who has handed out 28 yellow cards across his seven appointments in the Champions League this season (4.00 per game). Context is a real driver here, but Bayern’s card record is still pretty solid in the Champions League and the referee appointment should also help see them collect at least two cards here.

The first leg meeting between the side produced seven corners, we’re after a few more here in another selection where the context should be a key driver with there only being one goal between the sides from the first leg thriller. 

There were exactly 10 match corners when these sides met earlier on in the league phase of the Champions League, with PSG taking advantage of Bayern Munich dropping down to 10 men on that occasion and winning nine of these corners. 

Bayern are seeing 9.31 match corners per game in the Champions League this season, so we’re looking for a small increase in their average numbers which should be able to come with the context that surrounds this game with both European heavyweights being just one game away from a Champions League final, in which they’d likely be favourites against either Arsenal or Atletico Madrid.

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