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Andy's Sunday Accumulator @ 4.31

I think a home game with Alaves looks like a perfect opportunity for Atletico Madrid to get back on track in La Liga. Diego Simeone's side have been remarkably consistent at home this season, winning eight of their nine league fixtures in the Spanish capital. Across that eight-game winning run, Atletico Madrid have defeated the likes of Villarreal and Real Madrid, so they should prove too strong for an out-of-sorts Alaves.

The relegation-threatened visitors have lost each of their last three away matches in La Liga, conceding multiple goals in each of their previous three losses.

Both of these sides are chasing a spot in the play-off places, with the winner here having the advantage of beating away one of the competing sides for those spots. Waalwijk are just one point away from the promotion places, while Dordrecht have a bit more work to do, seeing as they sit six points away from a potential promotion spot.

Dordrecht have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, notably losing four of those games. They only failed to score in a 2-0 loss to Willem, which was a game that saw Dordrecht have more shots (14-13) and shots on target (8-3), suggesting that they should have found the back of the net in that clash as well.

Waalwijk saw BTTS in their most recent assignment as they were knocked out of the KNVB Cup by Heerenveen. The most recent clash between these sides also saw BTTS as Waalwijk ran out 2-1 winners over Dordrecht back in October. Waalwijk will be looking for a repeat of that result here, though I’d expect Dordrecht to offer an attacking threat with their own promotion ambitions hanging in the balance.

After suffering a shock defeat in gameweek one against Cremonese, AC Milan have been in imperious form - Massimiliano Allegri deserves immense credit for the job he has done. AC Milan showed their character last time out, as they came from behind to beat Como at the Giuseppe Sinigaglia Stadium - far from an easy matchup given how well Como have been performing this season. 

Meanwhile, Lecce were dealt their 11th league loss of the season in midweek, as Inter Milan beat them 1-0. That scoreline flattered the Giallorossi in the end, as they were barely able to lay a glove on the league leaders. Inter racked up 21 shots in total, with seven of those hitting the target. Without Wladimiro Falcone’s five saves, the scoreline could have got way out of hand. In return, Lecce managed 10 shots worth a measly 0.48 xG, forcing Yann Sommer into just one save.

Gary O’Neil takes charge of his second game as Strasbourg manager having already seen his team win 6-0 against lower league opponents in the Coupe de France. Metz may as well be lower league opponents with how poor they've been in Ligue 1 this season, so O’Neil has had quite a favourable start to his stint in charge of the BlueCo owned club.

Liam Rosenior left Strasbourg in a decent position with the club sitting just outside of the European spots. They’ve won five of their eight home games in Ligue 1 this term, notably only conceding four goals across these games - the joint best home defensive record in the division.

Metz sit rock bottom of Ligue 1 and have only won three of their 17 matches in the French top flight this term. They’ve conceded more goals than any other side (38) with 28 of these goals being conceded across their nine away matches (3.11 per game). This lack of stability at the back should offer enough promise to Strasbourg to get over the line here, with O’Neil sure to feel optimistic of registering his second win as head coach.

Football

Cross Match Premier League Double @ 3.90

Krejci has been one of the few Wolves players that has impressed over the course of the season, with the 26-year-old showing himself to be an aggressive centre back who can also play in midfield.

Krejci has committed 23 fouls across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.49 fouls committed per 90. This promising foul record has been accompanied by two yellow cards for Krejci, with the latest of those coming against Manchester United a few weeks ago.

Krejci has committed a foul in each of his last two Premier League appearances, and plays for a Wolves side that is committing 14.1 fouls per game in the Premier League this term - more than any other side in the division.

Wolves exceeded this average in the most recent head-to-head, with the Wolves committing 17 fouls in their 1-0 defeat at St James’ Park. Krejci lined up in midfield in that clash, committing two fouls and picking up a yellow card.

He’s expected to feature in a back three for Wolves here, but regularly pushes forward into midfield areas where he’ll be greeted by one of the toughest midfield trios in the Premier League. He’ll brush shoulders with Bruno Guimaraes when he does step forward, with the Brazilian averaging 2.32 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this term - Guimaraes was fouled five times in the last head-to-head.

Wolves’ form has improved in recent weeks, with Rob Edwards most recently seeing his side win 6-1 in the FA Cup, which is exactly the type of uplifting result that they needed in what has been a very arduous and challenging season.

They take on a Newcastle side that are a bit low on confidence at the moment, having lost the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Manchester City (2-0), and have been weak on the road all season - potentially opening the door for Wolves to get another positive result in this mini-resurgence.

Newcastle’s two matches prior to that semi-final first leg have been really hectic, with a 3-3 draw against Bournemouth in the FA Cup and a 4-3 win over Leeds in the Premier League. Newcastle really struggle to control games on the road, with the Magpies winning just two of their 10 away matches in the Premier League this season.

Those games have produced 22 goals (2.2 per game), and I think Wolves’ recent promising run can see them test Eddie Howe’s side and contribute to the overall goal count. Only West Ham (25) have conceded more goals at home than Wolves (23) in the Premier League this season - so there should also be opportunities for Newcastle to get on the scoresheet.

Aston Villa have won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League since Unai Emery took over at the club, with Villa currently sitting top of that metric this season - winning 288 fouls across their 21 Premier League matches this term (13.7 per game).

This is a result of Villa being one of the few sides in the Premier League that insist on playing through the thirds, while the general direction of travel in the Premier League has been a switch to a more direct, physical style of play. Konsa is very strong with the ball at his feet, and should be able to attract fouls from the eccentric Thierno Barry, who is expected to lead the line for Everton here.

Konsa has won 24 fouls across his 20 Premier League appearances this term (1.22 per 90). This is an incredibly strong record for a centre back and tells us that winning fouls is a key part of Konsa’s overall game. Villa drew 17 fouls from Everton in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides, with that game finishing 0-0. Konsa was up against Beto on that occasion and was fouled twice.

His main opponent here is likely to be Thierno Barry, who is growing into his role as Everton’s main striker. He’s still a little clumsy and doesn’t quite know how to use his impressive frame correctly, leading to the forward routinely giving away fouls. Barry has committed 25 fouls across his 13 Premier League appearances this term (2.03 per 90), suggesting that Konsa will be in the limelight to be fouled at least once here.

Unai Emery’s team are one of the strongest sides in the Premier League at home, with only Manchester City (26) and Arsenal (29) picking up more points at home this season than Aston Villa (25). Villa have won eight of their 10 home matches this term, with only Newcastle and Crystal Palace managing to take points off Villa at home this season - those games were also right at the start of the season, when Villa were really struggling, so Emery’s side have been faultless at home since those early blips. 

Unai Emery’s side have scored 18 goals across those matches, and only conceded eight. This tightness at the back is likely to prove problematic for Everton, who have only managed to score nine goals across their 10 away matches in the Premier League this term. Everton’s recent form has also been quite poor, with their only win across their last five matches coming against a relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest side.

Everton have lost on their last four trips to Villa Park in the Premier League, with the Toffees losing 3-2 in this fixture last season. They have managed to win at Villa Park in the EFL Cup in this period, though that clash saw both sides heavily rotate, and we can expect Villa to have a near full strength side here.

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