When everything indicated that Panathinaikos would drop points away at PAOK on Sunday, Ivan Jovanovic’s side were awarded a stoppage-time penalty, one which was converted by Fotis Ioannidis to help his team secure a huge 2-1 victory. This means that are still top of the table, level on points with AEK Athens, with just five games to go. What follows for Panathinaikos is arguably their easiest fixture in the remainder of the season. PAO will get hundreds of fans to Volos in their bid to push for their fourth victory in a row and pile the pressure on AEK Athens, who host PAOK later on Wednesday.

Panathinaikos boast the finest defence in the Greece Super League with just 13 goals conceded in 31 games so far this season. The goal they allowed in away at PAOK was the first goal they conceded in as many as nine matches, hence ending their streak of eight clean sheets in a row. Jovanovic has put together a team that may not play impressive football, but they know how to secure professional victories. This is exactly what they will try to do on Wednesday in order to head into the weekend’s huge home clash against league contenders AEK with their morale intact.
Meanwhile, Volos were extremely poor at home against Aris, who secured a 3-0 win at the Panthessaliko Stadium and practically clinched the fifth spot, as well as European qualification for next season. Volos have nothing to play for in the remaining games, as the only objective they had in an already successful season was to compete for a spot that would help them secure European football for the first time in their history.

Panathinaikos have four wins and one draw in the last five games against Volos, who took them by surprise to clinch a hard-fought 0-0 draw a few weeks ago in a game where PAO were unlucky to hit the post twice. Jovanovic’s team have learned their lesson and this time they will push from the off for an early goal that would help them seal all three points. Meanwhile, they shouldn’t be expected to concede a goal against a team who have nothing to play for. Panathinaikos have five clean sheets in their last six games against Volos and this Wednesday they can make it six in seven.

If you look at the LaLiga table, you’ll find Getafe and Almería huddled right next to each other just above the relegation zone, with the former in 16th on 31 points and the latter in 17th on 30 points. Both are scrapping for survival and both are of a similar level.

However, Getafe are a decent home team and Almería are the worst away team in the division. Therefore, the fact that it’s the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez that’s hosting this Wednesday evening fixture is significant.

Almería still haven’t won a single away game this LaLiga season, collecting just four points from a possible 42 on their travels since their promotion last summer. Getafe’s season-long home record of five wins, five draws and five defeats isn’t particularly special, but they are unbeaten at home in their past five thanks to wins over Valencia, Girona, and Sevilla, and draws against Rayo Vallecano and Barcelona.

Add in the fact that Getafe have no absences other than the long-term one of Mauro Arambarri, whereas Almería could be missing as many as four starters, including top scorer El Bilal Touré, and a home win seems even more likely.

AEK outplayed Olympiacos from start to finish to secure a huge 3-1 road victory and put an end to the reigning champions’ title hopes. This was a much-needed statement win for Matias Almeyda’s side, who lost 2-1 in their previous visit to Olympiacos just a couple of weeks ago. AEK are top of the table, level on points with Panathinaikos, with the game between the two title contenders being scheduled for the upcoming Sunday.

However, before that duel, AEK need to make sure they build on their victory at Olympiacos with a win over PAOK at home on Wednesday. The two teams played against each other back in early April, when AEK recorded a 1-0 win away at the Toumba Stadium. No team have picked up more points on home soil than AEK this season, as Almeyda’s side have won 15 of the 17 matches that they’ve disputed at the new OPAP Arena, one which they inaugurated back in October.

PAOK visited AEK in October and failed to record a single shot on target, as a superior AEK secured a well-earned victory. Meanwhile, PAOK have nothing to play for, as they have focused all their efforts on staying fit ahead of the Greek Cup final against AEK at some point in May. Razvan Lucescu’s side have secured Conference League qualification for next season and they are aware that by winning the Cup duel, they will clinch a spot in the Europa League qualifiers.

They play away at AEK just a few days before hosting Aris in the Thessaloniki derby, one which is always important even if neither team have something to play for. This means that PAOK should be expected to rest some players ahead of the derby and it is highly doubtful whether they will keep their intensity levels high due to the congested calendar. This is a game between a team that desperately need a victory and a side that have no important objectives in the domestic league for the remainder of the season.

This may seem a little counter-intuitive after having just watched Brighton fail to score for 120 minutes at Wembley, but it is partially as a result of watching that match that informs this bet of backing the goal line, rather than a Brighton win.

It is a real trick of the mind to get over seeing Brighton being priced the way that they are. Obviously, the bookmaker’s models and the smart money really rate Brighton, and, really, that is a very easy thing to understand. The Seagulls are head and shoulders above anybody, including Arsenal and Manchester City, in the performance metrics.

It feels like Brighton have always been ahead of the game in the metrics, even a couple of seasons ago under Graham Potter the debate was always around how those impressive stats converted into results. That debate does still exist and is right to, but it does make Brighton an unappetising team to back in these situations given that price.

At Forest, meanwhile, the situation is getting desperate. We don’t need to go over the investment in the squad, but obviously, the owners have put a lot into survival in the Premier League, and at some stage, Steve Cooper is going to have to target every match to get a win. This is a tough one, but they will have to provide a threat in attack, as they were able to at Anfield at the weekend.

It is this angle that informs the bet here. Brighton are going to create chances, of that we can be pretty sure, Since March 1st Brighton have created the highest xG of any Premier League side bar Man City, 15.4xG in 7 matches, over 2xG per match. Forest, in that same period of time, have conceded 13.6 xG, the third worst in the division.

Whilst, of course, this points towards a Brighton win, it also points towards goals. The price for over 2.5 goals is much more appealing than a Brighton win and also could be covered solely by the away side. However, if Forest can bring some of that dynamic attacking play, or set-piece prowess, to bear on Brighton at any stage of the match then they could easily contribute to this total.

Fourth-placed Rapid Vienna’s Bundesliga clash with Salzburg has been brought forward due to their involvement in the Austrian Cup final against Sturm Graz in Klagenfurt on Sunday. The Green & Whites will have the chance to end the longest trophy drought in their history and claim a major honour for the first time since 2008. But before their trip down to Carinthia, they must take on a Salzburg side that took a big step towards a 10th successive Austrian title by beating closest challengers Sturm Graz at the weekend. The Red Bulls defended solidly and were clinical in front of goal as they stretched their cushion at the top to five points.

Rapid will be a little short in the defensive department, with marauding right-back Denso Kasius suspended following his recent red card in the Vienna derby and promising young centre-back Leopold Querfeld sidelined with a knee injury. Salzburg are without the forward duo of Fernando, who has been suffering with a thigh problem for months, and Noah Okafor, who has fractured his metatarsal. But they will not be short of attacking options with Leipzig-bound Benjamin Sesko, who scored the goal that clinched the aforementioned win over Sturm, likely to lead the line in the capital.

Rapid vs. Salzburg has been one of the most one-sided clashes in the Austrian Bundesliga in recent years. The Red Bulls are on a 14-game unbeaten streak against the men from Hütteldorf (W12 D2), and they are also undefeated in 24 league games against any opponent. With the Rapid coaches and players likely to have one eye on the upcoming cup final too, we cannot foresee those runs ending and would recommend betting on Salzburg to win and – depending on what happens in Graz – potentially take an unassailable lead in the title race.

Whilst there is a long way to go before one can realistically say that Liverpool have managed to restore themselves to close to what they have been over the last few seasons, their recent displays do offer some encouragement that they are at least a danger going forwards again.

The recent away games at Chelsea and Manchester City had definitely dented the confidence of players, coaching staff, fans, and punters alike as to how Liverpool were going to re-mould this attacking unit. However, inspired by the second-half display at home to Arsenal, and encouraged by Leeds’ “defence” in their last away match, the likes of Diogo Jota, Cody Gakpo, and, of course, Mo Salah look extremely confident again.

Consistency in the defence for Liverpool still evades them, but in open play, there are signs that the movement of Trent Alexander-Arnold into a more defensive midfield position to support Fabinho has made a bit of a difference. They will certainly have to be mindful of Declan Rice’s power as the England man has demonstrated both domestically and in Europe in recent weeks that he is at the top of his game.

There is something of a change in necessity for both teams coming into this match as well. Recent good form from both sides has changed the picture, West Ham are in a much stronger position in the league and probably don’t require many more points for safety, whereas Liverpool probably need to win every match and even then hope for a lot of help to reach the top four, although Tottenham’s fifth place looks very much up for grabs.

With West Ham only managing three home wins in the last ten, this is not a fortress that Liverpool will be intimated to enter. Albeit, Liverpool’s away record doesn’t make for confident reading, this feels like a great opportunity to build on the Leeds and Forest results for Jurgen Klopp’s men.

It was tempting to back the over 2.5 goal line in this one, and, indeed a combination of a Liverpool win and goals seems to be a good angle, but the extra bit of juice in the Liverpool win price is the selection here.

In the big title decider, there is a lot to consider from plenty of different angles.

One thing that I do not agree with though is that Arsenal have ‘bottled’ their lead. Obviously, to win the Premier League against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City takes a series of results that are exceptionally difficult to achieve. Arsenal had the pace required for the vast majority of the season, but three consecutive draws have made a huge difference to the impact of this match.

The fact that Manchester City have hit the form that they have over recent weeks does give them an advantage here. Also, the fact that they have been here and done this before will make a difference too, something which is difficult to quantify from a bookmaker perspective. How does one price up experience and confidence in the modern world of performance data and models?

If one subscribes to the belief that Man City’s players, coaches, and entire staff, have become conditioned to winning and building an aura that then helps them achieve results on a football pitch, then this perhaps gives you a couple of ticks of value in the price, even if it is a bit short to begin with.

Arsenal’s performance data continues to hold up to a good standard over any sample size, except the last couple of games, where it is possible to see the holes appear. Taking a look at the Gunners’ away games over the last ten matches it is easy to see that they were able to restrict their opponents in most games to a maximum of around 1xG. However, they found themselves dominated by Liverpool and then West Ham were allowed to build into the match and match Arsenal’s output as well.

It must be said that, by the same token, Man City were not impressive against Leicester, they lost the xG battle in that match and that was the first time since the visit of Brentford that that had occurred. In between times, the dominance of City at home was ridiculous. Over the last ten home matches, even including Leicester and Brentford, City have operated at a +1.2xG per match differential, i.e., they create over a goal’s more chances per match.

With an Arsenal defence now lacking in confidence, missing a key member in William Saliba, and the performance data agreeing with the outright results that have seen Arsenal concede 7 times in 3 matches, it is tough to see them keeping City at bay here.

Celta Vigo may not have won any of their four games since the March international break, but they’ve remained competitive throughout their run of two draws and two defeats, even including their 2-0 loss away at Real Madrid last time out.

The same cannot be said for Elche, however. They remain rock bottom but arguably produced their worst performance of the entire season on Sunday as they lost 2-0 at home to Valencia. As bad as they’ve been all year, entering that game they’d only once lost by multiple goals at home to a team not named Real Madrid or Barcelona. But, the team produced their most limp and uncompetitive home display yet to fall to regional rivals and 18th-placed Valencia.

It seems, therefore, that Elche may finally have given up, something that couldn’t be said before now. On to their sixth different coach of the season and well aware of their fate as they sit 17 points adrift, it’s logical that the players have lost enthusiasm.

And, travelling 800 km across the country to visit Vigo on a damp Wednesday night for a late kick-off isn’t likely to suddenly remotivate them. This should be an easy win for the home side.

Wednesday night will take Barcelona to Madrid to face a team who they have struggled against in recent years in the shape of Rayo Vallecano. The Vallecas-based team won this fixture last season while Ronald Koeman was in charge and will be hoping for a similar miracle against a Barcelona side who have not convinced of late.

10 of Barcelona’s 30 matches this season have ended in 1-0 wins, including their latest over Atlético Madrid at the Camp Nou on Sunday. While that may sound nail-biting, it was something of a relief to Barça fans who had not seen their team score in any of their three previous fixtures.

Xavi’s pragmatic approach has his team on course to record the best-ever defensive record in LaLiga, with an average of one goal conceded every 300 minutes. At present, they’re on a run of four consecutive clean sheets in LaLiga.

That’s why 57% of their games this season have come in at under 2.5 goals and it’s likely again at Vallecas. Rayo have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last six games but tend to sit deeper in matches against Barcelona, as reflected by the fact that they have not conceded against the Catalans in any of their three meetings since they returned to LaLiga, including two since Xavi’s appointment.