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Sunday Premier League Checklist @ 3.99

A lively contest looks likely at St James’ Park on Sunday afternoon, with both teams to score an appealing option.

While Newcastle were held to a dull 0-0 draw with Wolves last weekend, such low-scoring encounters have been rare this season, especially at St James’ Park. In fact, both teams have scored in 6 of the Magpies’ last 7 Premier League home outings, the most recent of which was a dramatic 4-3 win over Leeds. It is also worth noting that Eddie Howe’s side played out a barnstorming 3-3 draw with Bournemouth in the FA Cup at this venue earlier this month.

Although Aston Villa have been on a terrific run in the Premier League in recent months, they have found clean sheets hard to come by away from home. That is underlined by the fact that there have been goals at both ends in 5 of Villa’s previous 6 top-flight road trips, with Unai Emery’s side claiming a 4-3 win at Brighton and a 3-2 success at West Ham in that sequence. Villa’s 2-1 FA Cup win at Tottenham a couple of weeks ago adds further weight to backing each team to oblige at St James’ Park on Sunday.

While Aston Villa have not been a side associated with racking up cards this season, I think there is enough evidence to suggest they could collect 2 or more bookings on Sunday against Newcastle.

Unai Emery’s side have received at least 2 cards in five of their last seven Premier League away games. That also proved to be the case in their FA Cup win at Tottenham at the start of the month. Additionally, Villa had 4 players booked during their hard-fought 1-0 win away at Fenerbahce in the Europa League on Thursday evening.

With all that in mind, I think there is plenty of scope for the visitors to go into the book at least twice against a Newcastle side who have a real knack for forcing fouls from their opponents. The hosts are drawing an average of 2.41 cards per game from Premier League opposition this season, with 10 of the 11 teams to visit St James’ Park on top-flight duty tackling their way into the referee's notebook at least twice.

Sam Barrott is in charge of this clash and is only in his second season as a top-flight referee on the Select Group 1 list. But since making the step up to the highest level, his card rate has increased.

This season, he’s averaging 4.1 cards per game, having shown four or more in nine of his 13 league games. And in 10 of those he’s carded at least three players for this final leg of the Bet Builder.

With him having the whistle, then I’ll have to include cards, especially when both of his involvements with Nottingham Forest have seen the matches end with four – a defeat at Bournemouth and a home win over Spurs.

The Bees average 1.73 yellows per home game with Forest at 1.91 on their travels, so there’s enough juice in those figures to believe we’ll see cards. And both sides sit in the middle region of the foul charts at around the 10.5 mark.

To wrap it up, the last four meetings have produced 4, 7, 8 and 3 cards. So, there’s a good chance they’ll add to that record.

Given how I expect this game to play out from a tactical perspective, I think Chelsea are more than capable of earning a minimum of 5 corners. Moreover, the Blues have been strong corner performers in the Premier League this season, underlined by their average of 5.78 per game.

A closer look shows that Chelsea have been particularly prolific when it comes to earning corners in recent weeks, racking up 6, 12 and 11 in matches against Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Fulham. It's also worth mentioning that Chelsea earned no fewer than 15 flag kicks when edging past Pafos in the Champions League on Wednesday night.

As for Crystal Palace, they have consistently shown they are a team capable of digging in and absorbing pressure when required, which is reflected in the fact that they are conceding an average of 5.05 corners per game in the Premier League this season. That was certainly the case in this season’s reverse fixture, with Chelsea comfortably winning the corner count 11-2.

Football

Crystal Palace v Chelsea Bet Builder @ 3.01

Chelsea may have won three of their four games under Liam Rosenior, but this doesn’t quite tell the full story of his tenure so far. Chelsea have been pretty poor in all four of these matches, and we haven't seen the typical bounce we see with new managers when they come into a club. I’m not convinced that Rosenior will be able to control the aggression and occasional petulance of this Chelsea side, which is directly related to the youthful profile of the squad.

I do think Chelsea need more experience in the side to counter their discipline issues, they also need more leaders. It doesn’t take much to unnerve this Chelsea side, who often don’t deal well with adversity. Chelsea have picked up 50 yellow cards across their 22 Premier League games this season (2.27 per game) - only three sides in the Premier League have collected more cautions.

Chelsea also have an issue when it comes to red cards, with five already in the Premier League this season, which is more than any other side in the division. The initial league meeting between these sides saw Chelsea commit 10 fouls and pick up two yellow cards as Palace held them to a 0-0 draw. I think Chelsea will have issues when it comes to breaking down the mid block of Palace, which can be one of the most effective in the league.

Crystal Palace rely on corners at the moment to ensure that they maintain an attacking threat in their Premier League matches. The Eagles have failed to win any of their last 10 matches across all competitions, and have a torrid record against Chelsea, but set pieces could give them an edge in this contest.

Oliver Glasner’s side have scored eight goals from set pieces in the Premier League this season, representing 34% of their total goals in the top flight this term. Palace saw set pieces account for 29% of their goals in the Premier League last season, so this is a consistent part of their game which they will lean on to try and create chances against this Chelsea side.

Chelsea look far from convincing at set pieces, which is an issue that has carried over from Maresca’s time in charge. They’ve conceded from two set pieces already under Liam Rosenior’s reign, with Charlton and Arsenal the beneficiaries across his early games in charge. 

Chelsea are conceding 4.91 corners per game on the road this season - and allowed Brentford to register nine corners in their 2-0 win over the Bees in their most recent Premier League assignment. That corner count from Keith Andrews’ side represents the second occasion in Rosenior’s brief tenure where Chelsea have conceded 9+ corners. 

Enzo Fernandez committed three fouls and was shown a yellow card during the week as Chelsea registered a 1-0 win over Pafos. He was playing in a more advanced role with Caicedo and James sitting behind him - though he is expected to drop deeper here and partner Caicedo, which is advantageous for our selection.

Fernandez has committed 22 fouls across his 20 Premier League appearances this season (1.11 per 90) and has committed a foul in two of his last five Premier League appearances. Fernandez didn’t commit a foul in the initial league meeting between the sides, but this selection would have landed through Super Sub as Andrey Santos came on for the Argentine and committed a foul.

Fernandez is likely to face up against a midfield duo of Will Hughes and Adam Wharton here, with the duo combining to win 2.23 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season. Fernandez committed four fouls in this fixture last season as the sides played out a 1-1 draw; he also received a yellow card in that contest.

Alejandro Garnacho is a frustrating player to watch at times, but one very notable aspect of his game is how often he takes aim at goal. Garnacho’s first instinct is usually to shoot when he gets close to the goal, even when there are better options available. It’s a part of his game that he does need to work on, but it’s great for our selection with his current shot numbers.

Garnacho has had 22 shots across his 11 starts in the Premier League this season (2.41 per 90). This is a good example of where Garnacho needs to refine his game a bit; only five of these attempts have found the target (23%), which backs up the point about the winger taking aim when there are better options available to him.

There’s also evidence to suggest that Garmacho’s shot count will continue to climb, despite the inconsistency in his aim. Garnacho took 84 shots across his 23 Premier League appearances last season (3.44 per 90), maintaining a 36% shot accuracy across these games. Garnacho should continue to be erratic with his efforts against a Palace side that is likely to invite pressure in a mid-low block.

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