Nine of Chelsea’s 14 games this season have consisted of over 2.5 goals. They’re a team who are irresistible in attack but with a leaky defence, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games, but having scored 16 in the process.

Newcastle also struggle to keep the ball out of their net, only registering clean sheets against Southampton, AFC Wimbledon and Everton this season. The Magpies have scored in every home game bar one.

This bet goes hand in hand with leg 1. It’s mostly on Chelsea, who as we’ve touched on, give up chances and create plenty of them. They have the third highest xG for in the Premier League so far this season, but Robert Sanchez has made the fourth highest number of saves in the same competition.

Nick Pope in the Newcastle had made the third highest total, with three more than Sanchez. They have struggled to create at times, but as touched on above rarely fail to score at home, having only done so once in over a year.

This has landed in nine of Newcastle’s 11 games so far this season, and has landed in every home game against same tier opposition. They picked up three cards against Chelsea just three days ago, and the stakes are arguably higher in this one, given it’s one of two trophies Newcastle can realistically win this season.

Chelsea have picked up the most cards in the Premier League this season, at an average of four per game, and have picked up at least one in all of their cup games.

Games at St James’ Park often make for a pressure cooker atmosphere, which usually leads to plenty of cards being dished out, with an average of 2.8 for their opponents at home this season

Alexander Isak fired 3 efforts (scoring with one) at the Chelsea goal on Saturday as his side were defeated 2-1 at Stamford Bridge. The Swede is also averaging 3.23 shots per 90 in the topflight this term.

When playing at St James’ Park, Isak’s shooting numbers have been even higher of late, with him taking 10 shots over Newcastle’s previous two home matches (5 per game). With both sides likely to rotate here, Isak will be his sides biggest attacking outlet and the onus will be on him to test the visiting backline.

Isak is currently 1.36 to register 3+ shots, which makes his current price of 2.0 to register 4+ shots look excellent value here.

Nkunku has started all five of Chelsea’s games in cup competitions this season, and has scored in all of them. He has eight goals in all competitions despite only starting six games in total.

He notched a hat trick in the last round against League Two side Barrow. He will also likely be the penalty taker should the Blues be awarded one, and has already dispatched three of them on the Europa Conference League.

Sean Longstaff is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90 so far this season for Newcastle across all competitions.

The box to box midfielder averaged very close to one foul per game across over 40 total 90 minutes last season. He will be surrounded here by the likes of Enzo Fernandez, Joao Felix and Mykhaylo Murdyk who all know how to draw a foul out of their opposite number.

Joao Felix is another Chelsea man who has seen most of his action so far this season either in cup competitions or as a substitute. He scored two in the Europa Conference League against Panathinaikos last week, and also scored in the Premier League against Wolves in a 6-2 victory.

He has five shots on target in eight appearances across all competitions, but some of those have been small cameos off the bench. He should start here which will see him have plenty of chances to fire an effort on goal.