Having gotten off to a really poor start this season, Martinez is now flying. He’s bagged in each of his last 5 games, including a hat-trick most recently in the Champions League.

Over the course of the season, Martinez has averaged 1.43 shots on target per 90, although the bulk of these have come in his last 10 games. The Argentine ace has tested the keeper at least once in all 10 of these games, racking up a remarkable 23 shots on goal over this period.

Conceicao has been unable to fix Milan’s defensive woes for now, which has seen them concede 34 shots on goal across their last 7 games across all competitions. If that’s anything to go off, Inter’s captain should find himself in a good position to fire off at least 1 shot on target.

There are very few players able to rival Bastoni’s fouling consistency this season, with the Italian centre-back having now fouled in a remarkable 17 out of 19 league starts.

Over the course of the league season, he’s averaged 1.61 fouls committed per 90, but his consistency extends into other competitions too, averaging 1.32 in the Champions League, 1.33 in the Coppa Italia, and 1.11 in the Supercoppa.

His most likely opponent will be Tammy Abraham, expected to start up top. The Englishman has averaged 1.23 fouls drawn per 90 minutes and could enact an exciting duel with Bastoni, given he also commits 1.54 fouls per 90, meanwhile Bastoni draws 1.55 per 90.

Arguably today’s best odds lie in backing Asllani to draw at least 1 foul, something he’s managed to do in 13 of his 14 starts across all competitions.

The Albanian midfielder has averaged 2.10 fouls drawn per 90 minutes this season, winning at least 2 in 9 starts and 3 in 5 of them. In a match as competitive as this, it would be some shock if Asllani broke his consistent track record.

This is particularly so given his likely opponent, Ismael Benaccer, who will be filling in for the suspended Fofana. The Algerian international is averaging 1.67 fouls per 90 minutes this season and contributes plenty of additional value to this selection.

Thuram is another player who we expect to be prominent in the fouls market, averaging 1.82 fouls drawn and 1.32 fouls committed per 90 minutes.

He’s been taken out at least once in 6 of his most recent 7 league appearances spanning 25 minutes or more but has also displayed a strong record of fouling against tougher opposition, likely when more defending and off-the-ball work is required of him.

He sinned twice against Lazio, Roma, and Sunday’s opponents, Milan, and once against Juventus and Atalanta. Similarly, in the Champions League, he fouled at least once in each of Inter’s 3 trickiest games – Arsenal, Man City, and Bayer Leverkusen.

Dumfries brings a unique dynamic to Inzaghi’s setup, using his aggressive runs down the flank to unsettle defences and create space. However, this attacking threat comes with the trade-off of leaving gaps at the back.

He has taken an average of 1.88 shots per 90 minutes in Serie A, registering at least 2 attempts in 14 of his last 17 matches across all competitions (playing 65+ minutes).

Milan have averaged 10.18 shots conceded per game in the league, with a large proportion coming from their left-hand side given Theo Hernandez’s attacking tendencies. He’s also prone to the not-so-odd defensive mishap, often leading to shots and shots on goal. Odds of 2.70 represent good value here.

As mentioned, Martinez’s rise to form has been remarkable, with El Toro now having bagged 7 goals across his last 5 games. Most recently, he scored all 3 goals as Inter dispatched Monaco in the Champions League.

Despite his slow start to the season which was no doubt influenced by his participation in the Copa America (in which he claimed the Golden Boot), Martinez has now reached 18 goal contributions this season, despite making just 25 starts across all competitions.

Inter’s captain has a strong record against Milan having racked up 12 goal contributions against their city-rivals, he will be eager to make it 13 here.

Leao boasts a promising average of 1.87 fouls drawn per 90 minutes, hence the first of our selections involving him will be in the fouls won market.

The tricky winger has drawn at least 2 fouls in 14 matches for Milan this season despite starting only 24. In his recent clash with Juventus, Leao drew a remarkable 6 fouls, meanwhile, his last game against Inter resulted in him winning 2 fouls, despite playing for just 41 minutes in the game.

A lot of the value here comes from his likely opponent, Dumfries, given the Dutch wingback is Inter’s most prominent sinner, averaging 2.39 fouls per 90 minutes. Dumfries has clashed with Milan twice already this season, committing 2 fouls on each occasion.

We also think Leao represents value in the shots on target market, with the Portuguese winger leading the way in terms of shots on goal per 90 amongst regular starters, averaging 1.27.

He’s fired off at least 1 shot on goal in each of his last 5 games lasting over 45 minutes, accumulating 7 in total over the period despite limited minutes during turbulent times at Milan.

Leao boasts a particularly strong record against Inter, having tested the keeper at least once in 7 of his last 8 derbies (starts only). Across those 8 games, Leao has averaged 1.7 shots on target per 90.