Marcus Thuram has emerged as one of Inter Milan’s standout performers this season, delivering consistently impressive results. In addition to the four goals he scored, the Frenchman has also registered seven shots on target, the second most in Serie A. His average of 1.97 per 90 minutes promises value and makes him a worthwhile selection, particularly given Milan’s defensive woes.

Before joining Inter, Thuram averaged 1.57 shots on target per game in his final season with Borussia Monchengladbach. Initially, his output dipped as he played a secondary role to Lautaro Martinez, but he has since solidified his place as an equal partner, no longer required to operate as a sort of semi-regista.

As mentioned, Milan have frequently demonstrated defensive vulnerability, conceding 2+ goals in four of their give matches across all competitions. Most recently, Liverpool hit them for 11 and if their defence looks anything like it did on that occasion the chances could come thick and fast for Marcus Thuram.

Surely one of the Serie A’s toughest to defend against forwards, Martinez has had the opposition all over the shops so far this season. In each of his four games so far, the Argentine has drawn 2+ fouls, contributing to an average of 3.2 per 90.

This is no anomaly and over the course of last season he averaged 1.99 per 90, a minor decrease when compared to the 2.2 average of the season before. He particularly excelled when playing against Milan, drawing 3 fouls in the first leg and a remarkable 6 in the second.

Fonseca’s men have averaged 11 fouls per game in Serie A this season but we can expect this to dramatically increase in a game as intense as the Milan derby. In the last five there’s been an insane average of 32.6 fouls per game so backing Inter’s main man to drew 2 doesn’t seem a stretch.

Though AC Milan have endured a sluggish start to the season, Reijnders has been a reliable performer in terms of shots. Across four games, he’s averaged 2.48 shots per 90 minutes in the league but his form by no means limited to domestic competition.

Reijnders recorded six shots across his two Nations League appearances for the Netherlands, before firing off three against Liverpool in the Champions League. That’s despite the fact Milan managed just eight across the entire 90.

One of those came from outside the box with two from decent positions inside the area. This mix is pretty typical of the Dutch midfielder who frequently takes long-range efforts while still getting himself into advanced positions. Five of his seven shots in Serie A came from outside the box last season which could come in handy given how compact Inter tend to set up.

Despite their leaky defence, Milan’s forwardline have broadly looked pretty on the pace and are good value to test Yann Sommer a few times.

The Rossoneri have managed at least four shots on target in each of their league games this season, averaging five and most recently hitting six against Venezia. Their players have been seemingly growing more clinical as the season goes on with their shots-to-shots-on-target ratio growing each match, hitting a season high of 60% in their last league clash.

Inter have conceded an average of 3.25 shots on target per 90 this season with their toughest game surely being that which is to come against Milan. In the last Milan Derby, AC Milan racked up six shots on target from 25 shots although they were only able to convert one.

There’s a reason Inter are favourites in the Milan Derby but the odds seem to flatter AC Milan’s chances given their respective starts to the season.

One area of comparison could be their most recent Champions league clashes as both sides took on English opposition. Inter coped excellently in their clash with Manchester City, drawing 0-0 and keeping Man City’s chances to a minimum while also creating a few of their own. Milan, on the other hand, got battered 3-1 at home to Liverpool, creating just 0.37xG compared to the 2.74 they conceded.

Looking at the head-to-head form it certainly doesn’t flatter Milan who have lost each of the last six against their city rivals. One of those losses came in dramatic fashion as they got humiliated 5-1 at the San Siro last season.

It’s also clear to see that Inter have gotten off to the better start this season, accumulating more points, more expected points, more xG and fewer xGa. Nonetheless Milan will surely put on a show but it’s unlikely to be enough against the reigning Italian champions.

Barella has started this season in excellent form and is beginning to look once more like a significant attacking threat. This isn’t a coincidence and stems from the increased attacking freedom he’s being afforded by Inzaghi.

The Italian manager has accomplished this by replacing Dumfries, who makes frequent aggressive forward runs, with Darmian, who is much more solid and defensively responsible. In doing so Barella is relinquished from having to cover for the Dutch wingback, and can get further forward and create chances.

The result has been immediate and it’s no surprise Barella has hit 2 or more shots in each of his last two games, despite the tough opposition in Man CIty and Atalanta. He was still pretty effective in the market before the switch, firing off at least one in both the games prior.

Given the number of chances we expect to be produced in this heated clash and Barella’s form, backing him to have 2+ shots would be a very sensible decision.

Theo Hernandez has started three games so far this season, playing the full 90 on each occasion and drawing two or more fouls in each. Most recently he won three against Liverpool which represented 25% of the fouls Arne Slot’s men committed.

Hernandez has proven to be a consistent asset in this market, posting an average of 1.57 fouls drawn per 90 minutes in the league this season. That’s actually a step down from his previous seasons performance, having surpassed that mark in each of his five Serie A seasons at Milan.

As mentioned, this game tends to be a heated and foul-ridden affair with Inter more than contributing to the fire. They’ve committed 15 or more fouls in four of the last five against Milan, averaging 16.2 per game over the period. Hernandez is one of Milan’s most fouled players so it’s likely he’ll get caught at least a few times.

Inter may be known for their defensive strength, but their matches against Milan frequently see plenty of goals, with four of the last five league clashes producing over 2.5 goals. Both teams will be fired up for this ultimate showdown so it’s unlikely to be any different this time.

Each of Milan’s five matches this season have produced over 2.5 goals and all bar one have produced over 3.5. Six out of the eight league matches involving either Milan club has resulted in over 2.5 expected goals, with Milan’s games averaging 3.4 and Inter’s 3.2.

Last season this selection won in an impressive 25 of Mian’s league matches and 21 of Inter’s, including both clashes between the sides.