This is set up to be one of the most exciting clashes between these fierce rivals in recent seasons. Inter Milan have dominated this clash for the last few years, but have entered into a slightly different phase of their development with long term coach Simone Inzaghi departing the club after they lost the Champions League final.

There has been change at AC Milan as well with Massimiliano Allegri taking the managerial role over the summer. Allegri has made AC Milan a more serious force in Serie A with Milan avoiding defeat in 10 of their 11 matches in Serie A this season. They’ve netted 17 goals across these games, which is a tally only bettered by Bologna (18) and Inter Milan (26) in Serie A this campaign.

Inter have netted 17 of those goals across their six home games this term (2.83 per game). This would suggest that AC Milan won’t get too much out of this game if they are to go with a pragmatic approach, as Inter will simply outscore them. Milan have the players to go toe-to-toe with their city rivals, and this should result in chances generated at either end in one of the more competitive meetings between these sides in recent memory.

It was relatively calm when these sides met in the Coppa Italia last season, with just four cards shown across the two legs. Prior to that, over 3.5 cards had landed in eight out of 10 head-to-head encounters. 

With Simone Sozza at the whistle in this match, backing the overs has become a target. The Italian referee had an underwhelming average of 3.7 cards per game last season, but that has increased drastically 5.6 cards per game this term. After dishing out just one red card in the entirety of the previous campaign, he has already shown five red cards after just five Serie A matches this season, with this bet landing in all of those matches. 

It’s difficult to pick a winner here with both sides in good form, paired with the rivalry aspect, backing cards seems a sensible shout.

Christian Chivu has instilled a more intense pressing style for Inter Milan, and that has been reflected in their foul counts. The Nerazzurri are averaging 13.6 fouls per game in all competitions, a notable increase on their average of 10.5 fouls per game last season. 

Inter Milan skipper Lautaro Martinez has led from the front, and has also seen a decent uptick in infringements from 1.3 fouls per 90 last season, to 1.81 so far in the current campaign. 

He is usually fired up for the Milan derby as well. The Argentine international has committed a foul in each of his last 11 head-to-head matchups against AC Milan dating back to the 22/23 season. In that time, he is averaging 1.85 fouls per 90, and has committed multiple infringements in six out of 11, while also picking up three bookings.

With a total of 20 fouls committed across his 10 Serie A starts, no Inter Milan player has committed more fouls than Alessandro Bastoni this season. The 26-year-old actually ranks 8th for total fouls committed out of all players in the Italian top-flight this season, a testament to his aggressive defensive style.

He does have a tendency to rack up the fouls, committing six infringements against Lazio just before the international break, and four fouls against Ajax on matchday one of the Champions League. Despite his average of 2.12 fouls per 90 across all competitions, he has been booked just once in his 13 appearances in all competitions. 

He will be up against Alexis Saelemaekers on the flank this weekend - the Belgium international has been fouled 10 times in his last four matches alone, and is averaging 1.97 fouls drawn per 90 this campaign.