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Bayern Munich v Arsenal
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Kick Off: Wednesday 17th April at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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Watch Live: TNT Sports 1
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Arsenal have it all left to do on Wednesday night as they travel to Germany to face Bayern Munich in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie.
The Bavarian giants silenced all of the doubters that wrote them off in the first leg considering their very poor domestic form and absence of supporters and having secured a great 2-2 result, they will fancy their chances to progress into another Champions League semi-final.
Arsenal faced another seasonal setback at the weekend after a 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa which certainly punctured their title hopes and it’ll be interesting to see the response from an Arsenal side that have dominated almost everyone in 2024.
An exciting affair is certainly in-store here, let’s get into some of the best angles for Wednesday’s contest.
Bayern Munich v Arsenal Cheat Sheet
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🏆 Match stats: The Gunners aren’t done yet
Last week’s leg was determined as the make-or-break leg for either team but it’s set up for another equal contest.
Arsenal were the clear favourites to win at the Emirates and were perhaps unfortunate to come away without a win considering they dominated the ball, had more shots and double the amount on target.
Harry Kane converted his only chance of the game from the penalty spot following a clumsy challenge from Saliba on starman Sane – it felt like Arsenal dominated most of the game and created the best chances, but as the tale goes, they just couldn’t take those chances.
This has been the definition of Bayern’s season, a series of inconsistencies and underwhelming performances on some of the big stages, especially in their title race efforts. Arsenal have also shown their vulnerability considering their missed opportunity at the weekend, but they have picked up huge results at the Etihad and Anfield this season and have been a far more consistent side than their German hosts.
Considering Arsenal’s defensive strength, they’ll certainly be comfortable in playing out for a draw if necessary which is why the Arsenal double chance selection is advised. Bayern will certainly have a strong home advantage and have put on some really convincing displays at home, but without some key attacking figures like Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, Alphonso Davies and potentially Leroy Sane too, this Bayern side looks a much smaller beast.
This will certainly be a close affair and can certainly go down to the wire in the form of extra time and penalties so we expect Arsenal to get a result within the first 90.
Predictions:
⚽ Arsenal double chance @ 1.53
🥅 Goals stats: Both sides have potent goal threats
Both sides showed their attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities in the last leg and now each team is forced to play for the win on Wednesday night, which should spark some more action.
Bayern have only blanked in two home games this season and have scored 2+ goals in four of their last five outings at the Allianz Arena. The Bavarians are averaging an impressive 2.83 goals scored per 90 during this season’s Bundesliga campaign and their Champions League scoring form has impressed too, with Thomas Tuchel’s men scoring nine goals across their last four European outings.
Arsenal’s defence has started to show some cracks in recent performances, with the Gunners conceding four goals in their last two matches, as many goals as they have conceded across the last 11 games.
Arsenal have also struggled to keep out their opposition in their European away days too, conceding in all four of their games in the competition on the road so far.
But Bayern’s defence is by no means impenetrable, with last weekend’s clean sheet, against Koln, being the first in six games and only their second clean sheet in 14 games in all competitions. Arsenal have blanked in only one Champions League game this season and are the Premier League’s second-highest scoring team – they have plenty of firepower to get on the scoresheet on Wednesday.
Predictions:
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.50
🎯 Shooting stats: Kane to star once again
Harry Kane was destined to score on his return to face Arsenal last time out as he converted from the spot, the only attempt at goal he had all game. He now sits as the second-highest goalscorer in the competition (7) having picked up his 43rd of the season in that leg.
Kane is averaging an impressive 1.89 shots on target per 90 this season and playing at the Allianz is where the England skipper typically thrives, scoring 32 goals from 29 home matches in the Bundesliga this season. He also has four goals in four Champions League home outings during this campaign.
Harry Kane will want to make the most of playing against Arsenal once again, and with a record of 15 goals in 20 appearances against the Gunners, you’d back him to be the main threat to the Arsenal defence.
Kai Havertz once again looks to be a strong attacking option for the Gunners, with the Germany international potentially returning to a centre-forward role following his side’s weekend defeat.
Havertz was in some fine form coming into the first leg and certainly seemed to be a big threat to Bayern but he was pushed out wide following Gabriel Jesus’ substitution which left him isolated – although ultimately for the greater good following Leandro Trossard’s equaliser.
Havertz is averaging a respectable 2.0 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, averaging 0.72 shots on target. He tested the Aston Villa goalkeeper twice at the weekend and has hit the target at least once in ten of his last 13 games for Arsenal.
Considering his consistency in hitting the target his price looks generous to have a single shot on target.
Predictions:
🔄️⚽ Harry Kane to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.22
🔄️⚽ Harry Kane to score anytime @ 2.10
🔄️⚽ Kai Havertz to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.67
🛑 Fouls stats: Plenty of fouling angles to take in this clash
A key battle in the first leg was Gabriel v Harry Kane in which both players fouled each other, resulting in a booking for the Bayern striker, and this is certainly an angle to take again.
Gabriel is averaging 0.99 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season and has made 1+ fouls in 14 of his last 17 games for Arsenal across all competitions. This includes two fouls in the first leg and three fouls split across the two legs against Porto in the RO16.
With another two fouls at the weekend against Aston Villa, picking up a yellow card in the process, Gabriel certainly looks a great candidate for a foul in what will likely be a very physical tie. He will be facing up against the likes of Harry Kane and Jamal Musiala who draw 1.30 and 2.0 fouls per 90 respectively.
Joshua Kimmich may be at the mercy of the Arsenal wing play on Wednesday night but may in fact be on the other side of the fouling dynamic. Kimmich is drawing in 1.01 fouls per 90 across this year’s Bundesliga campaign and has been fouled at least once in 11 of his last 14 games for Bayern.
The Arsenal attackers have a tendency to make fouls when pressing the ball high up the pitch, with Gabriel Jesus, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli committing 1.74, 0.95 and 1.03 fouls per 90.
Kimmich often drops into midfield from full back when Bayern are in possession which could certainly invite pressure and bring a foul on the German.
Another fouling candidate that seemingly goes under the radar is Arsenal playmaker Jorginho. The Italian midfielder has committed at least one foul in five consecutive starts for Arsenal and in six of his last seven.
Jorginho made an impressive four fouls in his side’s RO16 second-leg clash against Porto having only played 82 of the 120 total minutes. He made a foul in last week’s contest with Bayern before being subbed in the 66th minute, and even if he is subbed, Paddy Power’s Super Sub offer will keep your selection going until the final whistle.
With the likes of Jamal Musiala and Thomas Muller in the Bayern midfield, drawing 2.0 and 1.10 fouls per 90, Jorginho may be forced into a foul if his side are caught lacking on the counter.
Predictions:
🔄️⚽ Gabriel to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.53
🔄️⚽ Joshua Kimmich to be fouled 1+ times @ 1.33
🔄️⚽ Jorginho to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.62
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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