Arsenal are showing the type of title-winning mentality that they lacked last season, with nine wins in their last 10 Premier League matches.

The Gunners are an excellent price at 1.57 to win this encounter.

Although Brighton have lost only once at home, they have faced only two of the top five at home. The Seagulls drew 2-2 with Liverpool when the Reds were in a tricky period of form in October but were spectacular when they overcame Tottenham 4-2.

De Zerbi’s side also have a decent head-to-head record with Arsenal, losing only two of their last six. But the momentum in this rivalry has started to shift. Not only did the Gunners win 4-2 at the Amex last season, but they also picked up a 2-0 win at the Emirates in December that suggests they will get the job done here.

Although both these sides are known as free-scoring teams, recent matches have bucked this trend.

There was little to interest in Brighton’s scoreless draw with Brentford in midweek while their most recent home fixtures were a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest and a 1-1 draw with Everton. They have also drawn 0-0 with West Ham since their mid-January break.

Arsenal, meanwhile, appear to be conserving energy during this busy period of matches. Since smashing five goals past Sheffield United in the first half of their encounter on March 4, they have scored only six times in four-and-a-half games.

This is, therefore, likely to be a game that defies the high-scoring expectations.

Gabriel Jesus is the favourite to manage a shot on target in the game. The Brazil international leads the way among Arsenal’s regulars with 1.26 per 90, although the fear here is over how much game time he will see. The Brazil striker has started only one game since a knee injury in late January but Arteta hinted the former Manchester City man could get significant minutes by leaving him on the bench entirely in midweek.

Jesus had two shots on target against Brighton and also scored when the sides last met.

On the contrary, Emile Smith Rowe impressed against Luton, claiming the man of the match award. He has not been a favourite of Arteta this season but odds of 1.83 are attractive should he start. In a brief cameo against Brighton last time out, he managed to test Bart Verbruggen.

In terms of straightforward shots, five starters of the Gunners’ managed four or more efforts when they last faced Brighton. Martin Odegaard led the way with five, a feat he is 9.5 to replicate.

Gabriel Martinelli is interesting at 1.91 to have more than 3 shots. He averages 2.53 per 90, and with Bukayo Saka struggling with injury, the Brazilian could be in line for significant gametime. He has had four shots in each of his last two starts.

Good luck to Brighton getting many shots away against this Arsenal defence. The Gunners have only given up 10 shots on target in eight Premier League matches.

Joao Pedro was their biggest threat against Brentford, with four shots, including three on target. He is 1.62 to get a shot on target against the Gunners, with fellow no. 9 Evan Ferguson on offer at 1.53.

When these sides met in December, there was a relatively low foul count. Of the 20 free kicks given, 11 were against Arsenal with just nine fouls given by Brighton, who nonetheless managed to pick up three bookings to the Gunners’ one.

Ben White, Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard both gave away two free kicks in that game. White will be glad Kaoru Mitoma is not available to test him at the Amex. Having given away only one foul in his last five matches, he is poor value at 1.5 to give away a free kick here.

With Havertz’ short odds, Odegaard is perhaps the best of this trio to study. The Norway star commits 0.98 fouls per 90 and was drawn into giving away a couple of fouls last time out against Brighton. That started a run that has seen him commit fouls in 13 of his last 17 club games.

Similarly, Jakub Kiwior is a big price at 1.67 to concede a foul. After being benched against Luton, he could get significant minutes here and may go up against Facundo Buonanotte, who is winning an average of 2.87 free kicks per 90.

Buonanotte also gives away a lot of free kicks. His price of 1.17 reflects the fact he commits 2.26 fouls per 90 and he looks good value even at those short odds.