Newcastle’s only defeat in seven previous fixtures in league and cup came in a 3-2 reverse to Manchester City on January 13th, but while results have picked up for the Magpies of late, a scratch beneath the surface reveals a couple of worrying trends.

Eddie Howe’s once robust side are conceding far too many chances, in fact, they managed to win the xG battle just once in their last seven Premier League fixtures and allowed 2 xG against or greater in five of the same matches.

In total, Newcastle allowed their opponents to rack up 109 shots against them across those seven tussles, with Liverpool (34) and Man City (27) doing the most damage. The pattern of those games feels particularly salient for United ahead of their meeting with the campaign’s third title challenger, Arsenal, on Saturday.

The Gunners fired a blank against Porto in midweek, however, they have won five successive matches in the top-flight, netting a superb 21 times along the way, and with their sharp attacking football the main contributor, 100% of their last six games have featured over 2.5 goals.

Newcastle meanwhile, have shipped at least two goals in six of their last seven league assignments, and in their current guise it’s difficult to see how the Magpies can cope with Arsenal’s relentless forward manoeuvres.

With the visitors looking too porous to properly compete, an Arsenal win is favoured alongside over 2.5 goals here.

Newcastle (eight goals conceded in three games) have looked vulnerable defensively in recent weeks and the Magpies backline has been regularly troubled by attackers with pace.

At left back, Dan Burn in particular has looked below his best and Arsenal’s rapid right winger Bukayo Saka could have too much speed and skill for his one-paced marker on Saturday.

Saka has had at least one shot on target in six of his last seven Premier League appearances and despite an ineffectual run-out in the Champions League on Wednesday, the England international is likely to test Newcastle’s Martin Dubravka with at least one effort this weekend.

On the opposite flank, Gabriel Martinelli is another strong contender in the same market. The fleet-footed Brazilian was Arsenal’s most threatening attacker in the Gunners’ narrow loss to Newcastle in November (three shots) and he seemed to have the beating of Kieran Tripper, a full back he is likely to face again.

For Newcastle, November’s match winner and the Magpies’ top Premier League scorer Anthony Gordon, is the obvious choice, given the threat he carries on the break, though centre half Fabian Schar could also be worth sneaking onto your coupon.

The Swiss star offers plenty of menace from set pieces and also enjoys a long-range punt wherever possible. The 32-year-old has let fly at least once in each of his last six matches and at least twice in his last four appearances for the Toon Army.

Arsenal can put the squeeze on opponents as tightly as anyone in the Premier League and only Manchester City (7.68) have been winning more corners per game in the top tier than the Gunners this term (7.52).

When Arsenal were pipped to the points by Newcastle in controversial fashion in November, the Londoners won the corner count at St James’ Park convincingly (11-0) on an evening when they controlled two-thirds of the ball.

The aggregate corner tally from Arsenal’s last eight Premier League home games reads 56-23 in the hosts’ favour, and bettors should expect the Gunners to lead the corner charge again on Saturday.

The bookmakers are onto them however, pricing them as short as 1.10 to win in the corner match bet market and 1.11 to win over 4.5 corners at Newcastle’s expense.

With useful value thin on the ground, backing Arsenal to beat a -4.0 corner handicap against Newcastle for the second time this season appeals. The Gunners have achieved that feat in five of their last seven league tussles at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal have been keeping their cool from a disciplinary standpoint this season and the Gunners have collected fewer yellow cards (38) than any other Premier League outfit so far, while only Man City (8.40) have been racking up fewer fouls per game on average (9.60).

With Arsenal dominating 60%+ possession on average this term, it stands to reason that they need to tackle and foul less than teams chasing the ball more often. Saturday’s opponents, Newcastle, who average 53% possession per game, have collected 58 cards in comparison.

The Magpies posted a 40% possession stat when they beat Arsenal in November and committed 14 fouls to the Gunners’ nine, while they also picked up five bookings to the Londoners’ one.

It’s logical to expect a similar pattern to unfold in the clubs’ rematch in the capital and backing Newcastle to amass over 2.5 cards again looks like a snug fit for the factors at play. The Magpies have been earning 2.50 cautions per away game this season and we’re tipping that average to be maintained.

Newcastle’s Dan Burn and Bruno Guimaraes look like potentially profitable picks from the individual fouls markets. Burn, committed two fouls when marking Bukayo Saka in November, and the out-of-form 31-year-old is capable of mistiming at least one challenge again this weekend.

Brazilian Bruno Guimaraes meanwhile, is a combustive character, he sinned twice and was booked against Arsenal in November. The 26-year-old has committed at least two fouls in ten separate Premier League appearances already this term, and he will be determined to throw his weight around again on Saturday.