Taking points from Aston Villa has proven to be no easy feat this season, as Unai Emery’s men are currently 3rd in the Premier League standings, level on points with Man City. They were also able to secure an impressive comeback against RB Salzburg in midweek, ensuring a top two finish in the Europa League.

The Villans have been strong on home turf this season, and have won 12 of their last 13 matches at Villa Park across all competitions. The one defeat came against Everton recently, but Villa were unfortunate in that one - they managed 18 shots worth 1.44 xG, but were unable to find the back of the net. 

Villa have usually been efficient in front of goal on home turf this season, but they haven’t been too watertight defensively. In fact, they have conceded in six of their last seven home games.

Brentford will have the advantage coming into this clash, given that they had no midweek fixture to contend with. Although they have failed to score in either of their last two matches, the Bees have racked up a total of 3.33 xG, so a regression is due. Both sides should be front-footed in their approach, which could make for an open contest. 

Villa are averaging 2.45 yellow cards drawn per game in the Premier League this season at Villa Park, with this selection landing in each of their last seven matches. Tim Robinson is an ideal referee appointment to keep that streak going, as he has dished out 26 yellows and one red card this season from just five games. 

Also, Brentford are averaging 2.18 cards per game on their travels this term, hitting this mark in eight of their 11 Premier League matches in total. Those trends marry up nicely here to back Brentford cards.

Given that it was pretty much a deadwood fixture for Aston Villa midweek, it was surprising to see Unai Emery select such a strong eleven. He did make a few changes though, and Ian Maatsen was one regular first-teamer who didn’t feature. However, the Dutchman has established himself as the number one choice at left back this season, and should reclaim his spot in the eleven against Brentford. 

Maatsen is averaging 1.5 shots per 90 across all competitions at home this season, landing this bet in all eight of his starts at Villa Park. Despite being listed as a left back on paper, Maatsen is afforded plenty of attacking freedom for his side, and looks to break forward at every available opportunity. He tends to pop up in promising positions in the box, but also fancies himself from range, with five of his 12 shots in the league coming from outside the box.

Ezri Konsa is averaging 1.4 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, rising to 1.6 when playing at Villa Park. For a centre back, those numbers are impressive, highlighting just how adept he is at buying cheap free kicks to alleviate the pressure on his side.

Konsa was fouled once when the sides met in the EFL Cup back in September, but it is worth noting that Igor Thiago was absent for that game, as Keith Andrews opted for rotation. The Brazilian has been a difficult player to contain this season, with 16 Premier League goals from 23 appearances.

In addition to his goalscoring exploits, Thiago has been shown five yellow cards this season and is averaging 1.81 fouls per 90. He likes to get physical with his opposing centre back. Konsa usually hits the deck when he feels contact.

Morgan Rogers played a key role against Newcastle last weekend, as he provided the assist for Emi Buendia to open the scoring after 19 minutes. The Englishman was unfortunate not to find the back of the net himself, as he had two shots in that match, both forcing saves from Nick Pope. 

Rogers was listed on the bench against Salzburg midweek, but was called into action in the first-half as Ollie Watkins hobbled off with a suspected hamstring injury. Following the departure of Donyell Malen to Roma, Aston Villa are light on attacking options, and Rogers had to play up front midweek. Despite operating out of his favoured position, Rogers got on the scoresheet and put in an excellent performance. He looks set to lead the line against Brentford here. 

Rogers has six goals and two assists to his name in his last 11 appearances, coming into this clash in excellent form.

Buendia has been another notable contributor for Unai Emery this season, and the Argentine international has two goals and two assists in his last five games alone. Buendia has popped up in key moments this season, and has seven goals and five assists to his name after 31 appearances in all competitions. 

But his contributions don’t end there, as the 29-year-old often looks to help out defensively. Buendia is averaging 1.8 fouls per 90 this season, which is one of the highest totals in the Villa squad. 

He draws an excellent matchup to improve those figures this weekend, up against Michael Kayode. The full back is averaging 1.21 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and has been fouled in 10 consecutive Premier League matches. On the same flank will also be Dango Ouattara, who is averaging 1.66 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season.

Yehor Yarmolyuk has also picked up five yellow cards this season, but with slightly fewer infringements. The Ukrainian international is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, highlighting how a higher percentage of his fouls tend to be cynical. Operating in a defensive midfield role, Yarmolyuk usually has plenty of defensive work to get through, and he is averaging 2.4 tackles per 90. 

Aston Villa rank top of the Premier League for total fouls drawn, and also cards drawn too. They can be very direct in their approach, looking to exploit gaps in midfield, and are drawing 2.4 cards per game because of that. 

Yarmolyuk’s main matchup here will be against Morgan Rogers, who is averaging 1.55 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season. It could be a difficult afternoon for the 21-year-old, and this price for him to be carded appeals.