This isn’t us writing Burnley off as a lost cause, there are things for them to cling onto, but a look into the away form of the newly-promoted side tells its own story.

Burnley have had difficult away fixtures, at Tottenham (0-3), Manchester United (2-3), and Manchester City (1-5), but whilst the scores tell a story, the xG values in the matches back up the fact that Burnley have conceded too many good chances. Both Spurs and Man City generated over 2 xG, while Man Utd racked up over 4 xG against the Clarets.

Going to Aston Villa is no easy task either. Villa beat Bologna 1-0, and then followed that up with a 3-1 win over Fulham for a morale-boosting first Premier League win of the season, before a 2-0 win at Feyenoord on Thursday. Fans will be hoping that this constitutes an improvement in their attacking output, as it took them five matches to score, and their xG averages are still poor, but six goals in the last three matches does provide some encouragement. Against a Burnley defence which is the worst in the Premier League when measured by xG against, Villa should be able to score and also keep it tight defensively.

Villa have only conceded more than once so far this season, against Crystal Palace.

There is a clear standout bet in the shots market. Some players are priced too short in this market, Evann Guessand raise a hand, but John McGinn looks a more than a fair price, which is fairly surprising given his profile and the market knowledge about him.

Indeed, McGinn took only one shot in his first five matches, but his last four have seen McGinn take eight shots in total, with three of his last four matches seeing him at least hit this shot line.

We can expect Aston Villa to take more shots than average in this match as well. Burnley are averaging 19 shots against in the Premier League so far this season, a figure that rises to 21 when only looking at away games. This should give John McGinn some space to hit at least a couple of shots in the match.

The former Benfica midfielder has broken into the Burnley team in the last couple of matches and played the full match in each, which indicates that he has the trust of his manager.

This is potentially significant given that Scott Parker was one of the Premier League’s best central midfielders for a number of years, and perhaps he sees a bit of himself in Florentino, who has energy and seems to love a tackle.

There is obviously a paucity of data of Florentino in the Premier League, but he made two fouls in his last match, one in the previous one, and averages 1.77 fouls per 90 in his last 50 matches, most of them in the Portuguese league for a possession-dominant Benfica side.

Also, a big part of this bet is that Morgan Rogers is a direct opponent. He is a foul magnet as he attempts to turn and carry the ball through opponents’ defensive midfield. Florentino will be a big part of shutting Rogers down.

The belief and evidence for this bet, albeit short, is down to Burney’s corner record so far this season.

First of all there is the fact that the averages in Burnley Premier League matches read 2.87 corners to Burnley, and 7.33 to their opponents. Burnley have lost the corner battle in all bar one Premier League game so far, that one being the 2-0 home win over Sunderland, where the corner count ended 4-3 to Burnley.

Other than that, they have lost 10-2 away at Manchester City, 13-1 at Liverpool, and 13-1 at Manchester United, whilst their home matches have been narrow losses by a single corner, but this is another tough away match, and, as we have seen here, they have lost the corner battle really convincingly in those away matches.

Villa themselves have won two and lost two at home in all competitions in terms of home corner battles. They won more than Bologna and Crystal Palace by some distance.