In this article…
Atalanta v Fiorentina
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Kick Off: Wednesday 24th April at 20:00
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Competition: Coppa Italia
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Watch Live: Viaplay Sports
Below is a full betting preview ahead of this week’s Coppa Italia semi-final second-leg between Atalanta and Fiorentina, accompanied by betting tips, predictions, team news, and best bets as well as a Cheat Sheet covering proceedings.
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Atalanta and Fiorentina are vying to complete the Coppa Italia final lineup, with the second leg of their tie taking place in Bergamo on Wednesday.
The visitors hold a slender 1-0 lead from the first leg, given to them by Rolando Mandragora on the half-hour mark, yet Gian Piero Gaspenini’s hosts are a formidable opponent at home and are favourites to turn this tie around.
Atalanta are chasing just the second Coppa Italia crown in their history, having last won the trophy back in the 1962/63 season, while Fiorentina are six-time winners with the last of those back in 2021.
Atalanta v Fiorentina Best Bets
➡️ Atalanta to qualify @ 2.30 on Betfair
➡️ Teun Koopmeiners to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.80 on Betfair
📂 Atalanta v Fiorentina Cheat Sheet
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⚔️ Atalanta v Fiorentina Head-to-Head
This will be the third meeting of these clubs this season, with Fiorentina picking up one-goal victories in the previous two.
The Florence side claimed a 3-2 success in Serie A back on September 17 before winning the first leg of this tie 1-0 at the beginning of the month. The six goals in those matches were scored by six different players, although Marten de Roon of Atalanta does have two assists and is 7.0 with Paddy Power to add to that tally.
Fiorentina were deserving winners of the first leg, with their 1-0 win reflective of a closely-fought match. The Viola had 20 shots but these were typically low quality as they had just 1.17 xG. Atalanta had half this number and generated 0.39 xG.
There was a huge foul count in the game, with 32 free kicks given, including 21 against the Bergamo club. On that occasion, the visiting side picked up three yellow cards to add to the two they earned when the sides met in Serie A.
Atalanta are 1.44 to see 1.5 or more cards in this match and 2.4 to pick up more cards than their guests, which has been the case in the two previous meetings this term.
Teun Koopmeiners is a likely offender. The Dutch midfielder committed four fouls in the first leg and two when the clubs clashed in the league. He is 1.73 to continue his trend of committing at least two fouls.
📊 Atalanta Form and Stats
Atalanta’s form has been up and down of late, with just four wins across their last 13 matches. La Dea have, however, played a surprising number of those games on the road (9) and they are clearly superior at home.
In Serie A this season, they have won 10 of their 15 home fixtures. While they have failed to win either of their last two at the Gewiss Stadium, one was a league match three days after their exhilarating 3-0 Europa League win in Liverpool and the other was against a Reds side seeking revenge.
There is little doubt, though, that they are struggling to create chances. Across their last 10 matches, they have only managed above 1.6 xG on just one occasion – the win at Anfield.
In front of goal, they are performing above that level. They have scored 16 goals over this period in all competitions. Gianluca Scamacca is a major reason for this. The striker is bang in form, having netted seven times in his last nine matches, despite rarely getting more than 70 minutes.
Scamacca is 2.5 to score against Fiorentina or 1.91 to muster at least two shots on target, something he has only done three times since the start of February.
📊 Fiorentina Form and Stats
Fiorentina are going strong at present. Across their last 13 matches in all competitions, they have suffered defeats only against AC Milan and Juventus, who occupy second and third respectively in Serie A.
The Viola, though, have drawn six of these matches and have been playing a lesser standard of opponents given four of those games have been in the UEFA Conference League.
Their most recent outing was a 2-0 win over Salernitana, who are virtually condemned to relegation to Serie B. Late goals were required from Christian Kouame and Jonathan Ikone to seal an expected win.
Life on the road has certainly not been easy for Vincenzo Italiano’s outfit. They have won only five of 16 Serie A matches away from home while their previous Coppa Italia rounds were both played at the Artemio Franchi.
They have, however, given up 0.3 xG combined in their last two games, although it should be factored in that their opponents were far weaker than the one they will face on Wednesday.
Having outperformed their opponents in terms of xG in nine of their last 10 matches, though, they should be respected.
Jonathan Ikone is one to watch. He has two goals and an assist in his last three games, a notable upturn in performance for what has been a poor season for the French winger. He is 3.3 to score or assist.
Finally, the Viola are not giving up many fouls at all. In their last eight games, they have been in single figures in this category on six occasions and have committed more indiscretions than their opponents only once.
💰 Atalanta v Fiorentina Best Bets
Atalanta’s strong home form is likely to see them get the win in this match. A price of 1.8 looks good value here. Backing Atalanta to qualify at 2.30 on Betfair is even more attractive given there is no away goals rule.
On a slightly different note, Teun Koopmeiners to commit 2+ fouls at 1.80 on Betfair looks an excellent price. The Netherlands star typically gets 90 minutes when it really matters and has averaged 1.84 fouls per 90 in Serie A this season. He has already committed six offences in two games against Fiorentina this term.
As a longer shot, back Atalanta to receive the most cards on Betfair at 2.30.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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