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Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid
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Kick Off: Wednesday 12th March at 20:00
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Competition: Champions League
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What TV Channel: TNT Sports 3
A high-stakes European Madrid derby with a place in the Champions League quarterfinals on the line. Real Madrid arrives at the Estadio Metropolitano with a first-leg advantage, but Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid will throw everything at their city rivals to overturn the deficit.
With Atleti forced to chase the game, Los Blancos will aim to manage their lead while remaining a constant counter-attacking threat. This tactical battle promises to be a fascinating contest, full of intensity, aggression, and pivotal moments. Beyond the result itself, the fixture presents several enticing betting angles.
⭐ Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Best Bet
Atletico Madrid have found the net in all but one of their home matches this season, but their defensive solidity weakens on the European stage. They have kept just a single clean sheet in 9 Champions League games.
Real Madrid, similarly, have been prolific on the road, scoring in 13 of their last 14 away games across all competitions. However, their defence has shown cracks in Europe, managing just one clean sheet in 11 UCL fixtures.
The BTTS market has landed in each of the last 10 Madrid derbies, reinforcing its value in what is expected to be another tightly contested but goal-filled encounter.
🟢 Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid ABC Exclusive Boost
Back Both Teams to Score, 3+ Corners for Each Team & 11+ Fouls for Each Team @ 5.0 on Paddy Power
A high-paced, back-and-forth encounter is expected, with both teams generating attacking momentum. Atletico Madrid will need to press forward aggressively to overturn their deficit, a style that naturally leads to set-piece opportunities. They average six corners per game in solely domestic action, increasing to 6.5 in the Champions League at home.
Real Madrid average 4.73 corners per game away from home across all competitions. Whether counterattacking or responding to a potential Atletico goal, Los Blancos should contribute to the corner tally. This pick has landed in eight of the last 12 Madrid derbies, reinforcing its viability.
A fiercely contested derby, high stakes, and the tactical approach of both sides should see fouls accumulate quickly. Atletico Madrid commit an average of 10.58 fouls per game at home across all competitions, while their opponents average 11.63.
Real Madrid matches those levels, averaging 10 fouls per game away from home, with their opponents committing 13.77 fouls per match. With so much on the line, tactical fouls, cynical challenges, and tempers flaring will likely see this market land once again – just as it has in eight of the last 12 meetings between these two rivals.
👕 Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Predicted XI
🔍 Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Players to Watch
🔴 Pablo Barrios
Pablo Barrios is a relentless presence in Atletico Madrid’s midfield, frequently finding himself on the wrong side of fouls. While he averages 1.38 fouls per 90 minutes this season, his aggression spikes in key matches, having committed two or more fouls in each of his last four starts (excluding a match where he was sent off after just 7 minutes).
His disciplinary record is even more notable against Real Madrid, where he has hit this foul threshold in each of his last three encounters. In European competition, his foul rate climbs to 2.01 per 90, and with the added responsibility of containing Real Madrid’s dynamic midfield, another two-foul performance seems highly likely.
⚪ Lucas Vazquez
Likely to start at right-back, Vazquez faces the tricky Samuel Lino who draws a notable 1.98 fouls per 90. Vazquez himself commits 1.35 fouls per 90 and has fouled in each of his last seven appearances, sinning twice in three of these matches. Given that we are expecting a high foul count here, and taking into account his match-up with Lino, he can foul a couple of times here.
📂 Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Cheat Sheet
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🔥 Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Streaks
These are team selections that have landed in the last five Champions League games ↙️
Atletico Madrid 1+ goals scored (2+ in 4/5)
Atletico Madrid 3+ corners
Real Madrid 2+ goals scored (3+ in 4/5)
Real Madrid 13+ shots (14+ in 4/5)
Real Madrid 6+ shots on target
Real Madrid 3+ corners (5+ in 4/5)
Real Madrid opponents 3+ corners
🏟️ Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Hit Rates
These are player selections that have landed in each of the last five Champions League games ↙️
De Paul 1+ fouls committed
Barrios 1+ fouls committed
De Paul 2+ fouls won
Reinildo 1+ fouls won
Griezmann 1+ shots
Alvarez 1+ shots
Simeone 1+ tackles
Bellingham 1+ fouls committed
Vinicius Jr 1+ fouls won
Bellingham 1+ fouls won
Mbappe 1+ shots on target
Vinicius Jr 1+ shots (3+ in 4/5)
Rodrygo 1+ shots (2+ in 4/5)
Bellingham 1+ shots
Vinicius Jr 1+ shots on target
🏁 Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Ref Watch
- Referee – Szymon Marciniak
| Average Cards (Y / R) | 2.40/ 0.40 |
| Fouls Given | 20.60 |
| Penalties | 0.40 |
Football Predictions at Andy’s Bet Club
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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