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Bayern Munich v Chelsea 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Bayern Munich v Chelsea 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Monday 15 September, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Chelsea travel to the Allianz Arena for their first-ever league phase match in the Champions League. 

The Blues have positive memories of Munich, having lifted the Champions League trophy at the Allianz Arena back in 2012.

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Bayern Munich v Chelsea Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Bayern Munich v Chelsea
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 3.57

Over 0.5 Chelsea Goals

I don’t trust the Bayern Munich backline at all. They may look solid in the Bundesliga, but they were regularly caught out in the Champions League last season.

Bayern’s back four on paper at the moment reads Stanisic, Tah, Upamecano, and Laimer - I’m not quite sure how Bayern have ended up in this position with the money and pedigree they have as a club, but this is not a back four that fills you with confidence.

Chelsea have scored two or more goals in each of their last three Premier League matches. Chelsea’s main issues when it comes to scoring goals usually crop up when the Blues face a low block.

Bayern won’t play like that here; they’ll take risks and push up the pitch, which will give Chelsea chances. Chelsea have only failed to score once across their last 16 matches in all competitions (v Crystal Palace).

Bayern conceded 12 goals across their eight matches in the league phase of the Champions League last season. They only managed to keep clean sheets in two of these matches, which is a good example of the issues that Bayern may face in trying to keep Chelsea out here.

Cole Palmer to have 1+ Shots on Target

Cole Palmer returned to the Chelsea side from the bench against Brentford last time out and scored a crucial equaliser to get Chelsea back into the game against the Bees. Palmer had five shots in his 34 minutes on the pitch against Brentford, with two of these efforts finding the target.

Palmer has had enough time to recover from the minor injury he suffered before the international break and was probably benched against Brentford from the start with this game in mind.

Those two attempts on target against Brentford were actually the first two shots on target that Palmer has managed in the Premier League this season.

Palmer had 51 shots on target across his 37 Premier League appearances last season (1.44 per 90). He maintained a similar average in the Club World Cup over the summer (1.13 per 90) and the Conference League last year (1.27 per 90).

Konrad Laimer to Commit 2+ Fouls

Laimer has committed five fouls across his three Bundesliga appearances so far this season (1.96 per 90). He’s been playing as a right back for quite some time now, but still looks pretty uncomfortable when he has to contest 1v1 duels, something which he should be forced to do pretty often here.

I expect Garnacho to get the nod to start on the left wing for Chelsea here. He was pretty bright when he came on against Brentford, while Gittens, who started the game, delivered quite an underwhelming performance. Garnacho will fancy his chances against Laimer. Garnacho won 43 fouls across his 23 Premier League starts last season (1.76 per 90).

Michael Olise to have 1+ Shots on Target

Olise has made an electric start to the season, and his shot volume across the opening few weeks of the campaign really stands out.

Olise has had 16 shots across his three Bundesliga matches so far (5.33 per 90), with nine of these shots finding the target (3.00 per 90).

This record has returned three goals for Olise so far this campaign, with the 23-year-old aiming to eclipse the 17 goals he scored for Bayern last year in his debut season for the German giants.

Olise was just as much of a shot threat last season as he has been across the opening few games of the season - Olise averaged 3.30 shots and 1.38 shots on target per 90 across his 34 appearances in the Bundesliga, scoring 12 goals in the process.

Olise was also a real shot threat in the Champions League last season with 41 shots across his 14 appearances in the competition (3.57 per 90).

13 of these efforts found the target (1.13 per 90), which works out at 32% shot accuracy. This is admittedly lower than his shot accuracy in the Bundesliga but the volume of shots gives him a good chance of finding the target here.

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Bayern Munich v Chelsea Best Longshot Bets
  • Bayern Munich v Chelsea
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 10.52

Harry Kane to Score Anytime

Harry Kane netted a brace against Hamburg last time out as Bayern registered a 5-0 win over the newly promoted side to take their early record in the Bundesliga to three wins from three matches.

Kane has scored five goals across these matches, with his other goals coming in the form of a hat trick against RB Leipzig on the opening day of the season. He’s also been active when it comes to setting up goals, assisting three goals across these matches.

Kane scored 38 goals across his 46 appearances in all competitions for Bayern Munich last season and should get pretty close to that total this campaign if he is able to stay fit throughout.

Kane also has a superb record in the Champions League. He scored 11 goals across his 13 appearances in the competition last season and notched eight goals across his 12 appearances the season prior.

Enzo Fernandez to be Shown a Card

Enzo Fernandez is yet to receive a yellow card this season, but this could be the perfect environment for the Chelsea midfielder to pick up his first caution of the campaign.

Chelsea collected more yellow cards than any other Premier League side last season (99), which may have something to do with the fact that Chelsea were also the youngest ever side in the Premier League last campaign.

Fernandez received eight of these yellow cards - only Levi Colwill (9) and Moises Caicedo (11) picked up more yellow cards for Chelsea than Enzo Fernandez last season.

Fernandez is likely to contest multiple duels with Michael Olise here; the former Crystal Palace man won 65 fouls across his 34 appearances in the German top flight last season (2.49 per 90).

Dayot Upamecano to Commit 1+ Fouls

I’ve always thought that Upamecano is a bit of a clumsy centre back; he never looks comfortable as the last line of defence and regularly oversteps the mark.

Upamecano has committed two fouls across his three appearances in the Bundesliga this season (0.80 per 90) - these two fouls came in the opening game of the season against Leipzig but the Frenchman was also shown a yellow card in Bayern’s demolition of Hamburg last time out.

Upamecano was regularly caught out in the Champions League last season, committing seven fouls across his 11 appearances in the competition (0.64 per 90). This average may not seem that high but it’s worth noting that many of those games that Bayern contested, in the league phase in particular, were pretty one-sided and didn’t see the Bayern players have to contest many duels.

This shouldn’t be the case here with Upamecano lining up against Joao Pedro. Joao Pedro has won seven fouls across his four appearances in the Premier League this season (1.90 per 90) and averaged 2.12 fouls won per 90 across his 27 appearances for Brighton in the Premier League last season.

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📂 Bayern Munich v Chelsea Cheat Sheet

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📈 Bayern Munich v Chelsea Form & Tactics

Bayern have started the domestic season as you would expect, with three wins from their three matches so far. The two games they’ve played at the Allianz Arena have ended with a combined scoreline of 11-0. 

The Bundesliga isn’t the real test for Bayern Munich; they’re expected to win the title every season, and this campaign is no different. However, the demands on Vincent Kompany will be to deliver in the Champions League, which was a competition that was pretty underwhelming for Bayern last season.

Bayern were knocked out by eventual finalists Inter Milan in the quarter-finals of the Champions League last season. They finished 12th in the league phase last season, winning five of their eight matches but only keeping two clean sheets across these games.

I’m still left a bit puzzled by Bayern’s summer recruitment. The signings of Luis Diaz and Nicolas Jackson are positive, but I think they should have really addressed the gaps that exist in their backline. They have plenty of firepower, but I’m concerned that they will be caught out by the more elite sides in the Champions League this season with their current defensive unit.


Chelsea will have to pick themselves up after conceding in the 93rd minute against Brentford last time out in a game that ended 2-2. Chelsea were far from their best in the game and didn’t deserve to leave the Gtech Community Stadium with the three points, but there was plenty of rotation in the side with Maresca having this trip in mind.

Chelsea have a deeper squad than most, so they should be able to balance the demands of European and Premier League football, as they did last season. They won’t get as many opportunities to mass-rotate the side as they did in the Conference League last season, but there is enough quality across most positions for Maresca to change things slightly without impacting the overall performance of the side.

What has become really clear over the last year under Maresca is how crucial Moises Caicedo and Cole Palmer are to this Chelsea side. If you take either of these players out of the team, the Blues really struggle, which may end up being a real criticism of the recruitment strategy at Chelsea, with the amount of money spent and how reliant they are on specific players.


🏁 Ref Watch

José María Sánchez Martínez

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

22.57

3.29

0.07

0.14

Per game stats from Martinez's 14 career Champions League games.


📊 Bayern Munich v Chelsea Key Stats

  • Bayern have won all three of their games in the Bundesliga so far this season by an aggregate scoreline of 14-2. 

  • Bayern kept just two clean sheets in the league phase of the Champions League last season.

  • Harry Kane has started the season with eight goal contributions across just three matches.

  • Chelsea have failed to score in just one of their last 16 matches across all competitions.

  • Chelsea have scored 2+ goals in each of their last three Premier League matches.

  • Alejandro Garnacho could be in line for his first Chelsea start here.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Champions League Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've also got plenty of other content for Wednesday's Champions League fixtures, including Quick Previews for Slavia Prague v Bodo Glimt, Ajax v Inter Milan, and Olympiacos v Pafos, as well as Bet Builders for Liverpool v Atletico Madrid and PSG v Atalanta.

On top of that, we also have Champions League Accumulator Tips, a Player Prop Acca, and Both Teams to Score Tips.

You can take a look at some of the best New Bookmaker Offers here if you're after some free bets. We recommend both the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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