The effect Mbappe had on the first leg was astonishing, after not being fit enough to start the match, he came on and immediately changed the game. Before Mbappe’s introduction PSG had accumulated just 0.08xG, in the 35 minutes after he came on they made 1.1xG. In just 35 minutes Mbappe managed a shot on target, this season in the league he has averaged 2.43 shots on target per 90.

Mbappe is a big game player, he has already shown this in two World Cup Finals, I expect him to turn up and be a difference maker in this match. At the time of writing he is priced at evens for 2 shots on target which looks to be a brilliant price.

Kingsley Coman got the goal in the first leg and was one of Bayern Munich’s best players throughout the first leg. Coman had 3 shots with 2 on target in the first leg despite only playing 74 minutes. This season Coman has averaged 2.98 shots per 90 and his pace will make him a great asset when Bayern can counter left into space by PSG as they push forwards. 

Coman has been at his best for Bayern this season in his recent matches for them, he has had at least 2 shots in 5 of his last 8 matches and had at least 1 shot in all of those matches. Coman has also now scored 5 goals in his last 5 matches for Bayern so will be confident in having a shot at goal when he gets into a good position.

PSG are 1-0 down and need to push forward for at least 1 goal in this match, but with Neymar missing out they are without one of their key creative forces. Messi is therefore going to have to be PSG’s main creative force in this match and will be the centre of everything they do. In the first leg, Messi attempted 57 passes despite PSG having only 45% of the possession.

Messi averages 64 passes per 90 in the league while PSG are having more possession but in all of his Champions League matches this season he has attempted at least 50 passes. In his last 12 matches, 10 of them he has attempted at least 50 passes and as PSG will have to push forward and have a bit more possession I expect him to attempt more passes than normal. He looks good value for 50 or more passes in this match.

There will be an intense atmosphere for this match, 2 teams with clear aims of winning this competition and either team will become irritated if they are close to exiting the competition. Daniele Orsato is the referee for this match, he averages 3.8 cards given out per match this year. PSG average 1.65 yellow cards per match in a league they dominate while Bayern average 1.52 cards per 90.

The first leg of this tie had 4 yellow cards handed out and this tie will have even more on the line, I expect even more cards here. Bayern Munich committed 18 fouls in the first leg despite dominating the majority of the match, with PSG pushing forwards in this match they will likely commit even more fouls, leading to further cards. The referee gives out plenty of cards, the last match saw 4 cards and this is a big match with a lot on the line, therefore I expect at least 4 cards in this match.