Arsenal average 6.24 shots on target per home match across all competitions, hitting this line in 10 of their last 17 at the Emirates. However, what makes this selection most appealing is backed by Brentford’s vulnerability against top opposition.


Brentford’s defensive vulnerabilities against high-volume attacking sides have been exposed time and again this season. In their first nine away games, they faced the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Fulham — all sides ranking in the Premier League’s top nine for shots on target at home. The result? A staggering 78 shots on target conceded, averaging 8.11 per game.


With Arsenal ranking 5th in this same category, and confidence sky-high after putting three past Real Madrid midweek, backing them to hit 6+ shots on target here feels not just logical — it feels inevitable.

Brentford bring a rugged, pressing approach under Thomas Frank, and that tenacity often sees them rack up the foul count—especially away from home. The Bees average 9.0 fouls per away game in the league and have hit 9+ fouls in 9 of their last 13 on the road.

They face an Arsenal side who not only dominate possession but invite pressure and provoke fouls through their ball control and technical quality in tight spaces. The Gunners have drawn 9 or more fouls from 11 of their 15 visitors to the Emirates in the league this season, suggesting Brentford will likely exceed this line once more in what could be a frustrating afternoon off the ball.

Partey’s defensive steel comes with a price—fouls. He’s averaging 1.27 fouls per 90 this season and has committed at least one in 9 of his last 12 starts. With Brentford’s midfield drawing 9 fouls in their last five games, the Ghanaian will almost certainly be asked to put a foot in.

Often overlooked, but Potter’s on-ball ability draws fouls regularly. While averaging 0.84 fouls won per 90, he’s been fouled at least once in 5 of his last 7 starts, drawing 3 fouls in the reverse. Arsenal’s left channel remains exposed, particularly of late and Potter is bound to capitalise again.

While often in control of games, Arsenal’s aggressive pressing structure and intensity in midfield ensure they remain no strangers to committing fouls themselves. At the Emirates, they average 10.67 fouls per game in the Premier League, having registered 9 or more in 11 of 15 home fixtures.

Brentford are the type of side that draw fouls frequently—physical, direct, and adept at engaging defenders in duels. They've drawn 9 or more fouls from their hosts in 10 of their away games this campaign, making this line more than achievable for an Arsenal team likely to be tested in physical battles across the pitch.

A fairly consequential pick given we have backed Arsenal to commit at least 9 fouls above. Brentford are the most disciplined team in the league away from home, averaging just 1.13 cards per game. Their clean play forces their hosts to rack up the bookings instead—13 of 17 home teams (across all competitions) have picked up 2+ yellows against them.

Arsenal average exactly 2 cards per home game in the league and have hit 2+ in five of their last six at the Emirates. A combination of Brentford’s ability to frustrate and Arsenal’s high-pressure style makes this a very sensible inclusion for an odds boost.

Not typically a go-to for this market, but current form makes Rice unmissable. After two utterly sublime free kicks against Real Madrid, the England international is full of confidence. He’s registered 6 SOTs in his last two games and 1+ in 4 of his last 6. If he retains free-kick duties, this line becomes very attractive.

Timber’s card stats are eye-catching. Despite a low fouls-per-game rate, he’s Arsenal’s most booked player this season (9 cards), averaging a card every 4 Premier League games. He hasn’t been booked in three straight Premier League games, which by trend means he is well “due” a caution. Against a Brentford left side that has drawn 12 fouls in 3 games, and given that he saw yellow in the reverse, Timber’s discipline will likely be under pressure again.