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Brentford v Arsenal
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Kick Off: Wednesday 1st January at 17:30
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Competition: Premier League
The Premier League’s first game of 2025 promises fireworks as Brentford host title-chasing Arsenal in a tantalising London derby. Both teams will look to start the year on a high, with Brentford aiming to restore their home dominance and Arsenal eager to maintain their pursuit of league leaders Liverpool. Below, we present a comprehensive analysis of the fixture and the top betting insights.
⭐ Brentford v Arsenal Best Bet
Arsenal enter this clash on a formidable 11-match unbeaten run across all competitions, securing victory in 8 of those fixtures. While all three of their competitive defeats this season have come away from the Emirates, the Gunners have shown marked improvement on the road, winning 3 of their last 4 away games. Crucially, Arsenal have maintained an unbeaten record in 10 Premier League London derbies in 2024 (W8, D2), which bodes well for their chances against Brentford.
Brentford, in stark contrast, are a team of extremes when comparing home and away performances. At the Gtech Community Stadium, they boast a joint league-best 22 points from 9 games (W7, D1, L1). However, their confidence may be shaken after suffering their first home loss to Nottingham Forest (2-0) just before Christmas, marking the first time this season that the Bees failed to score at home. With Arsenal’s dominance and title aspirations driving them forward, the Gunners are well-placed to start 2025 with another 3 points.
🟢 Brentford v Arsenal #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Arsenal to Win Most Corners in Each Half: Arsenal’s prowess in creating attacking opportunities and their ability to dominate possession make them one of the league’s most reliable teams in the corner metric. Averaging an impressive 6.5 corners per game while conceding only 3.11, the Gunners consistently outpace their opponents in this area. Arsenal have won the corner count in 14 of their 18 first halves this season and maintained dominance in the second half in 11 of those games, highlighting their consistency. Brentford, on the other hand, have struggled to control the corner count, especially against high-possession teams like Arsenal. The Bees have lost the corner count in 12 first halves this season, following that with losses in the second half of the same games on 7 occasions. Arsenal’s dominant style of play and attacking intent are likely to overwhelm Brentford in this aspect, much like in both fixtures last season, where the Gunners comfortably won the corner count.
Brentford to Commit Most Fouls in Each Half: This selection presents more complexity, given the season’s statistical trends. Arsenal, despite their controlled style of play, are not averse to committing fouls, averaging more fouls than their opponents in several matches. Conversely, Brentford generally commit fewer fouls than their adversaries. However, the anticipated dynamics of this match provide hope for this bet. Arsenal are expected to dominate possession and mount sustained pressure through their attacking phases, forcing Brentford into defensive action and likely compelling them into challenges to regain control. In scenarios where Arsenal dominate the ball and dictate the tempo, Brentford’s discipline will be tested, increasing the likelihood of them committing more fouls in each half.
👕 Brentford v Arsenal Predicted XI
🔍 Brentford v Arsenal Players to Watch
🔴 Bryan Mbuemo
Brentford’s talisman Bryan Mbuemo has been their key attacking threat this season, leading the way with 10 goals and 2 assists. His proficiency in London derbies is particularly impressive, contributing to 14 goals (12 goals, 2 assists) in his last 15 games in the capital. While Arsenal’s defence has been one of the most resolute in the league, Mbuemo’s recent form—2 goals and an assist in his last 4 starts—makes him a potential game-changer for Brentford.
⚫ Kai Havertz
Despite operating in a deeper role to accommodate Gabriel Jesus in attack, Havertz remains a consistent offensive asset for Arsenal. In his last 5 appearances, he has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists, achieving this in just 329 minutes of play—an average of 65.8 minutes per match. Havertz’s knack for late goals against Brentford, which he demonstrated twice last season, adds another layer of intrigue to his potential impact on the game.
📂 Brentford v Arsenal Cheat Sheet
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💻 Brentford v Arsenal Form and Tactics
Brentford’s 0-0 draw against Brighton in their last outing provided a rare moment of stability on the road, earning just their second away point of the season (D2, L7). Manager, Thomas Frank, will welcome the return to the Gtech Community Stadium, where his side has been formidable with 7 wins from 9 league matches this term. However, their confidence will be tempered by their recent loss to Nottingham Forest, which ended an 11-match scoring streak at home in competitive fixtures.
Brentford’s tactical approach revolves around a direct style of play, with long balls and defensive clearances, which are hallmarks of their strategy. Ranking second in the league for defensive clearances (27.3 per match), they also rely on their goalkeeper frequently, who leads the league in saves per match (4.9). However, their susceptibility to conceding shots on target leaves them vulnerable, especially against an Arsenal side adept at exploiting defensive lapses.
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Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side arrives in scintillating form, unbeaten in their last 11 games, winning 8. While not as dominant as last season, the Gunners have cemented themselves as title contenders, with their league-best xG against serving as the backbone of their campaign.
Although Arsenal’s 3 losses this season have come away from home, they remain unbeaten in their last 4 away league fixtures (W2, D2). Furthermore, their impeccable London derby record in 2024 (W8, D2) adds an extra layer of confidence as they head into this encounter.
Arteta’s tactics emphasise possession and control, as evidenced by their 67.7% average possession across the last 3 Premier League games. Expect Arsenal to adopt a high-tempo, possession-heavy approach at the Gtech Stadium again, pinning Brentford back with relentless attacking waves. With a deep bench brimming with quality, the Gunners are poised to test Brentford’s defensive resilience from the first whistle to the last.
🏁 Brentford v Arsenal Ref Watch
- Referee: Peter Bankes
- Averages 18.5 Fouls per game.
- Awards an average of 0.29 Penalties per game.
- Averages 4.29 Yellows Cards per game and 0.14 Red Cards per game.
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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