Brentford have been priced up as underdogs for this match, and whilst I wouldn't go so far as to suggest that the Bees should be favourites, I feel that, with home advantage baked into the price, there should be less distance between the prices.

Being able to take the draw here as well is clearly a boost to this bet, too. If Eddie Howe is able to revert his team to the tight 0-0 team of the early season away matches, then we are able to still collect here, but leaning towards Brentford supplies the value here.

Brentford have been a strong home team throughout their stay in the Premier League. This bet would've collected in four of their five home Premier League games so far this season, and they have played Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd, Aston Villa, and Man City (their only defeat) already. Last season, this would've won in 13 out of 19 home games as well.

Newcastle are yet to win in the Premier League away from home, meaning that this bet would've collected in all of their prior away matches.

Newcastle started the season with a run of 0-0 away draws, but since then have had BTTS defeats at Brighton and West Ham, where they really didn't look secure defensively.

Both Brentford and Newcastle are averaging over 1 xG for and against in the Premier League this season, with Brentford in particular hovering more around the 1.5 xG mark in both directions, which suggests that they are quite an open team at this stage. Newcastle, concerningly, conceded over 2.5 xG in their last away game to West Ham.

Generally, Brentford v Newcastle matches have a goalsy touch to them as well. They have met eight times in the Premier League, and six of them have seen BTTS collect, and there is also an EFL Cup match, which ended 3-1 to throw in there as well. The last three meetings at Brentford have all been BTTS as well.

Brentford at the Gtech this season aren't quite as full of goals as last season, but the entertainment value is still high. Three out of five matches have been BTTS, and that is despite a tough set of home fixtures, a 3-2 win over Liverpool, 3-1 vs Man Utd, and 2-2 vs Chelsea are not only good results but demonstrate well why I like this angle for this match.

I like the price on Dango Ouattara to be fouled here.

His price is slightly bigger than teammate Kevin Schade for this market, and yet when you look into the data, Ouattara has been fouled almost twice as often as Schade, so he is definitely the value selection here.

Indeed, Ouattara is Brentford's most frequently fouled player, coming a cropper an average of 1.95 times per 90 minutes.

Ouattara has started six Premier League matches this season, including each of the last three, and he has been fouled at least once in each of those six. Indeed, he has been fouled three times, twice, and once, on exactly two occasions each.

He is likely to be up against Dan Burn, who is 1.2 to commit a foul, and has an average of 1.6 fouls per 90 this season. Burn has also committed fouls in 12 of his 15 starts, mostly multiple fouls in a single match as well.

There is something about a central defender playing at left-back, marauding forward, that is good for the soul. Fans of this rather odd and specific tactic should be delighted by this match, with Dan Burn and Kristoffer Ajer both fulfilling that role here.

Whilst Burn did have two shots, one a beautiful curling header from range that found the net, in their last match, his shot returns have been inconsistent. Ajer, on the other hand, seems to relish the opportunity to get forward and threaten the goal on a consistent basis. He also has the benefit of being a potential set piece target as well, of course.

In the Brentford match I watched recently, it was often the case that Ajer would underlay, or make central runs, either with or without the ball. This obviously meant that he often ended up in decent shooting positions, rather than stuck out wide for a pass or cross.

He is averaging an impressive 1.62 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, albeit from a small sample size because he has only started the last four. However, in those four matches, he has taken five shots, including at least one in his last three in a row.