In this article…
Bristol City v Leeds
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Kick Off: Friday 2nd February at 20:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
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The race for automatic promotion is still at the forefront of all Leeds fans’ mind, despite a passage to the FA Cup quarter-finals opening up in front of them last week.
The gap to the automatic promotion positions is back down to two points, albeit Leeds have played a game more than Southampton and Ipswich, so the Whites can put the pressure on by winning on Friday night and, at least temporarily, jumping into 2nd place.
Bristol City are 6 points off the play-offs at the moment, but with 17 matches still to play, this is by no means an insurmountable gap. If the Robins are to get close though they will need to find some extra consistency and quality from both ends.
In many ways, Liam Manning’s side are the epitome of mid-table. Played 29, won 10, lost 11, scored 33, conceded 33. It is those goal numbers that probably most express where Bristol City are at, below average in goal output and above average in goal concession.
In short, if Leeds are to overhaul their rivals at the top, they could really do with beating these mid-table teams. We are able to look into the data and ascertain whether this indeed looks likely, and what are the other value bets ahead of this clash.
Bristol City v Leeds Cheat Sheet
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You can find Bristol City v Leeds match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you’re looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.
⚽️ Match stats: Leeds deserving of their position near the summit
Daniel Farke has not quite won over the whole Elland Road faithful, but in a regular Championship season their current points haul would have them bang in contention for the title, as well as the promotion positions.
Leeds are level with Leicester at the top of the league in terms of xG created with 52.5 over their 29 games. They have scored 51, so are slightly behind what they “should” have, which is fairly unusual for a top team. They are also 3rd for big chances missed, which perhaps relates to their slight profligacy.
The strength of the season Leeds are having is illustrated by the fact that they lead the league in xG against as well. They are 3 goals better off than Leicester in this metric, so in terms of xG difference, Leeds are clear as the best in the league over the first 29 matches.
Bristol City have had something of a goalscoring problem over the season as a whole. They have only netted 19 goals from open play in their 29 games. Liam Manning has been known to get him teams creating quite high xG numbers so this is obviously something that he will be working on.
The Robins are likely to make it tough for Leeds to cut loose though, having only conceded 16 in their 14 home matches. They are top half for xG against over the season too.
Leeds should be favoured for the victory here given their overall strength.
Predictions:
⚽ Leeds to win @ 2.0
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.80
🎯 Shooting stats: Bamford renaissance to continue
The return of Patrick Bamford to the starting line-up appears to have had a positive effect on Leeds. Bamford himself is the player favoured to look for in the shots on target market, despite him being fairly short priced.
The 30-year-old is the only Leeds player who averages over a shot on target per 90 minutes, albeit from a much smaller sample size than his peers. However, we should take advantage of his good form to pop him in a bet builder for this match.
The best value from a Bristol City perspective is probably with wide man Anis Mehmeti. The former Wycombe winger plays on his opposite side, so is adept at cutting inside and getting shots away.
His shot volume isn’t as high as it was when he played at Adams Park, but he is close to one shot on target per 90 minutes, certainly more so than many players ahead of him in the betting.
Predictions:
⚽ Patrick Bamford to have 1+ shots @ 1.36
⚽ Patrick Bamford to have 2+ shots @ 2.70
⚽ Anis Mehmeti to have 1+ shots @ 2.30
🚩 Corner stats: High number of corners expected at Ashton Gate
When Bristol City play at home the average number of corners in the matches in 23/24 has been 11.79.
City have shaded those corners in their favour, 6 vs 5.79. Whilst this may not be convincing, it does show that the Robins aren’t often dominated at home also.
It may be surprising to learn that Leeds concede more corners than they earn when they go away from home, and the averages are quite clear. The Whites average 4.93 corners whilst conceding 6.79. This totals 11.72, which is very similar to the Bristol City home total.
With Leeds being made odds on in the corner match bet, there looks to be some value in City here.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 4.5 Bristol City corners @ 1.73
⚽ Over 9.5 total corners @ 1.50
⚽ Bristol City corner match bet @ 2.38
🟨 Foul stats: Leeds wingers to threaten Bristol City wide defenders
It is probably unsurprising to learn that of those players that are fouled the most regularly, Crysencio Summerville and Daniel James figure high on that list.
James is fouled well over once a game and Summerville almost twice a game. With some doubt as to who might play on the right for Bristol City, it is perhaps a better option to go with Cameron Pring for fouls. The left back also has the bonus of being the highest fouler in Bristol City’s squad and also being pretty good value for fouls.
Joe Williams, though short priced, is still bettable for two fouls or more. Glen Kamara attracts a lot of fouls in midfield, and Georginio Rutter is the most fouled player on the pitch and will stray into midfield on a regular basis. Williams will no doubt be part of the task-force assigned with bringing him under control.
Predictions:
⚽ Cameron Pring to commit 1+ foul @ 1.30
⚽ Joe Williams to commit 1+ foul @ 1.18
⚽ Joe Williams to commit 2+ foul @ 1.91
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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