With the departure of Najee Harris in the offseason and the arrival of rookie Kaleb Johnson and veteran Kenneth Gainwell, it was unclear whether Jaylen Warren would carve out a workhorse role in this Steelers offence. After 12 weeks of the season, he certainly seems to have managed to do just that. With 604 rushing yards on the season, Warren is averaging a little over 60 yards per game on the ground.

The Bills defence has been a large contributing factor towards their relative struggles this season. The unit ranks 3rd worst in the entire NFL in rushing yards allowed this season, with 1,638 allowed in 11 games. They’ve also given up the joint-most rushing touchdowns in the league this year too, so I like Warren’s anytime touchdown chances too at longer odds.

Given the high standards of recent seasons, the Bills 7-4 is worse than many might have expected. Josh Allen has had a few struggles this season, particularly last week against the Texans, but he has still hit the 200-yard passing mark in eight of his 11 games this season. He’s also averaging 246 yards per game through the air.

The Steelers have struggled to defend against the pass this year, giving up 2,846 yards through the air, which is the 4th-most in the NFL in one fewer game than the only three teams below them on that list. This could be a great bounceback spot for the Bills and Josh Allen will look to attack the weak Steelers secondary.

Coming off the back of a huge season last year, where he managed 18 total touchdowns in 16 regular season games, James Cook has continued to find the endzone. The talented running back already has nine touchdowns through 11 games this year, though interestingly only one of those has come through the air. He manages these touchdown numbers even despite Josh Allen’s likewise remarkable rushing touchdown record.

The Steelers defence has been fairly stingy against the run, having allowed just eight rushing touchdowns all season. That’s tied for 4th-fewest in the league, but this pick is more a play on Josh Allen exploiting a weak passing defence that has given up the 4th-most passing yards in the league. Cook will benefit as a result, hopefully finishing off drives. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a low yardage total but a touchdown or two in Cook’s box score.

Allen has been one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks in the league since he was drafted. The veteran signal caller has over 500 rushing yards in every season of his career, and is very much on pace to continue that streak this season. He has 371 yards through 11 games and has only gone under 20 yards twice all season. With a couple of offensive line injuries heading into this game, Allen may also be forced to scramble even more than usual.

While the Steelers have given up just 1,163 rushing yards this season, which is the 11th fewest in the league, they have allowed some big gains to quarterbacks on the ground. Caleb Williams had 21 rushing yards against them last week and Drake Maye had 45 earlier in the season. Allen is arguably the most mobile quarterback they’ve faced this season, so this number seems very achievable.