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The Championship never disappoints, and this season has been no exception. With every side having played just over half of their 46 league games, we thought it would be the perfect time to revisit our EFL Championship experts’ outright tips from the start of the season.
As ever, we’ll be all over the EFL for the rest of the season, with our usual selection of EFL accumulator tips and EFL bet builder tips. It’s not just English football we cover on Andy’s Bet Club either, with a range of football betting tips & predictions on the site every day.
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We have reviewed some of the highlights of our pre-season outright picks and have even included fresh ones for you to back and cheer on for the remainder of the campaign.
Championship promotion odds
Leicester automatic promotion
Having backed Leicester for automatic promotion at the outset at odds of 3.0, Sky Bet have since dropped their odds down to 1.02. So whilst this isn’t quite a done deal, it would be a freakish turn of events at this stage to see Leicester outside of the top two. There is currently a thirteen-point gap to third-placed Southampton with Leicester going along at 2.5 points per game.
In reality, the Foxes are the best team in the league, and potentially the best team to have ever played Championship football. The record points total of 106, set by Reading in 2005/06, is surely under threat, and if motivation isn’t a problem in the second half of the season, then that could be the only excitement at the very top of the league.
Ipswich automatic promotion
This was a slightly more ambitious prediction, but it has turned out to be fairly accurate.
Ipswich currently sit in second place and have done so for most of the season. The gap to third was once ten points but is now only three. The Tractor Boys are still favourites across the board for the second automatic promotion place at 2.38, which showcases the value on the 6.0 we tipped them at during pre-season.
There are concerns that the momentum has slightly stalled and also that Ipswich’s away form hasn’t been as convincing as their home performances, both of which are valid. George Hirst’s injury has also disrupted the first-choice tactics of Kieran McKenna, but the former Man United coach is adaptable in his approach.
⬇️ Ipswich automatic promotion
Southampton to spoil Ipswich’s party?
When looking at the Championship promotion picture the main threat to our tips given in pre-season are Southampton and Leeds.
Both clubs were in the Premier League last year, compared to Ipswich in League One, and it is tempting to look at the Saints and Leeds squads and be lulled into believing that they’re much stronger.
There are no strong rumours about Southampton or Leeds players leaving in January so there is a chance that they could be even stronger by the end of the window.
Southampton are on an incredible unbeaten run, and they have actually improved as that run has gone on. Looking at the market with fresh eyes, Southampton are a better bet than Ipswich to nab a top-two position come the end of the season.
⬇️ Southampton automatic promotion
Championship Top 6 odds
Middlesbrough Top 6 Finish
The recruitment in the summer hasn’t yet really worked out for Middlesbrough and though they are still well in contention to finish in the top six, Michael Carrick hasn’t yet got Boro back to the level they showed after he took on the head coach role last season.
There has also been something of an injury crisis at the Riverside Stadium, with right back and central defence being a particular problem. Seny Dieng is now at AFCON as well, so they are missing their first-choice goalkeeper for a period of time.
It is also fair to say that Boro have suffered from a touch of negative variance. Their opponents have scored plenty of screamers against them, and the Teessiders actually sit 2nd in the Championship for big chances missed as well.
Middlesbrough’s xG ratio has them in the top six, so if they can turn that into points then they are still well in the fight to reach the play-offs.
⬇️ Middlesbrough Top 6 Finish
Sunderland Top 6 Finish
The Black Cats are currently the team sitting in 6th place, and with a new manager in the dugout, the hierarchy will be confident that they are in the right position to back up their 22/23 play-off campaign with another one.
They are a very young squad who can use that energy and enthusiasm to play some excellent football, but the concern is a continued lack of a consistent #9 and a potential lack of experience to guide them through the difficult periods.
The other concern is what would happen if Jack Clarke left in January. The former Leeds and Spurs youngster has been unbelievable for Sunderland this season, playing almost every minute and leading the league in many aspects of attacking play. It feels unlikely that such a move would be completed this month though, so hopefully Sunderland will be able to use Clarke to power themselves to a play-off finish.
They are a lot shorter than when we backed them pre-season but remain an odds-against bet.
⬇️ Sunderland Top 6 Finish
Bristol City Top 6 Finish
Originally backed as a longer shot at 4.50, Bristol City have had an interesting season so far. When the initial tip was given Nigel Pearson was the Robins’ manager and the feeling was that he had weathered the storm of reducing the wage bill, giving minutes to a lot of young Academy players, and the sale of Alex Scott for a big fee would be invested smartly to help the young players get close to the play-offs.
In the end, Pearson never received that backing financially, and, as it transpired, the owners weren’t all that keen on having Pearson continue in the job. Liam Manning was brought in to replace Pearson and has slowly began to change the style of play but without an initial impact and consistency.
There is still a possibility of Bristol City making the play-offs but even with recruitment support in January it is pretty unlikely given the number of contenders for just a couple of places, something reflected in their new price of 17.0.
That said, we’re happy to take on that huge price considering they’re just four points off the top six at the time of writing.
⬇️ Bristol City Top 6 Finish
Coventry to return to the play-offs
The top four seem to pick themselves, which means that the rest of the contenders are fighting it out over just two places.
West Brom look to be the best of the rest and have separated themselves slightly from the pack. This is based on a solid off-the-ball structure and excellent management from Carlos Corberan. They aren’t safe in the top six by any means though, especially if financial problems rear their head again.
Hull City have gone and strengthened already this window, bringing in Fabio Carvalho to help plug the Jaden Philogene sized hole in their attack. The Tigers won’t be going anywhere and are likely to stay in this fight until the end.
Coventry are the side with the most momentum coming into the second half of the season. The Sky Blues were only 14th at the halfway stage last season and still comfortably made the play-offs. It is a great testament to Mark Robins that he has been able to find the formula with this new group of players and get them going again. Callum O’Hare’s return to the fold has definitely helped Robins’ cause.
Cardiff, Watford, Norwich, and Preston are all possible contenders as well, but only Watford feel like potential candidates from that group, and they are probably too lacking in goals and consistency to make the top six.
⬇️ Coventry Top 6 Finish
EFL Championship relegation odds
QPR relegation
QPR also made a change a few months into the season as it became ever more clear that Gareth Ainsworth was not the man to take them forward and keep them in the Championship.
Martí Cifuentes was headhunted from Swedish side Hammarby and initially had a positive impact on the team. Cifuentes tightened up the defence but has had more difficulty in getting the team to play more enterprising attacking football.
Progress has stalled a little and there is still a four-point gap to make up on 21st-placed Huddersfield at this stage.
⬇️ QPR relegation
Sheffield Wednesday relegation
This selection has really suffered due to events that couldn’t be foreseen when the tip was written. The Sheffield Wednesday under Xisco Muñoz were a rudderless ship, lacking in strategy, motivation, and quality, and looked pretty certain to go down.
The Sheffield Wednesday under Danny Röhl are re-energised, have been given a smart tactical plan, and are now putting up xG data that has them ranked comfortably in the top half since Röhl’s appointment.
It is difficult to see Wednesday finishing in the bottom three given their current trajectory. They are still amongst the favourites for the drop if you can see QPR or Huddersfield out-performing them from now to the end of the season however.
⬇️ Sheffield Wednesday relegation
Terriers looking in real trouble now
Rotherham have changed their manager and look more organised under Leam Richardson, but the gap to 21st is seven points, and the teams above them have also improved.
Huddersfield are adding players and have been picking up points, but their method of doing so feels inconsistent and fairly fortunate. They don’t have a deep squad or great quality, but they do have heart and character, Darren Moore will insist on that being an absolute minimum, so they can’t be written off.
Plymouth Argyle have impressed many this season, but they have been stripped of some big assets already this January. Ian Foster is a bold replacement for Steven Schumacher, but they will have to continue to recruit well after Finn Azaz and Luke Cundle were recalled and distributed to other Championship clubs.
Birmingham slid from play-off contenders to relegation battlers under Wayne Rooney, and if the England international had remained as manager then they would be under serious consideration for the drop. However, the appointment of Tony Mowbray is a wise one and it feels more likely now that Mowbray will arrest the slide and Birmingham will stabilise.
Stoke should have the quality of players to keep their heads above water, which means Huddersfield are our fresh pick for the drop.
⬇️ Huddersfield relegation
EFL Championship Top Goalscorer odds
Sammie Szmodics in pole position
There is still some disrespect over Szmodics in the prices here. He is three goals clear of the chasing pack, he is definitely staying put until the end of the season, he will play almost all of the minutes he’s available for Blackburn, he has by far the highest xG in the league, and his team are committed to playing attacking football. In other circumstances, with a different name and a different starting position, he would be close to odds-on.
Adam Armstrong does have the second-highest xG total, but isn’t playing as most expected in pre-season as a #9. Russell Martin trusts Armstrong to play deeper, and it has worked for him, with nine assists as well as 13 goals, but it has affected his goal tally. This will not change for the second half of the season.
Morgan Whittaker is also on 13 goals, and is a danger. He could move this January though, with Brentford a potential destination. Even if he does remain at Argyle, with Azaz and Cundle gone, part of his supply line is gone already.
Four goals back are Crysencio Summerville and Jack Clarke, both wide forwards who are both in the top ten for players who are outperforming their xG.
Szmodics should be shorter than his price so even though he is the favourite, he looks to be the best value option.
⬇️ Sammie Szmodics Top Goalscorer
Haji Wright offers great value as an outside bet
A big price because Wright only has 8 goals so far this season, so needs a massive swing to take the overall prize, but he is only 5 behind the each way places.
The Coventry forward is actually top in the Championship for xG per 90, so he is the player who has had the best chances when he has been on the pitch. In the first portion of the season, Wright was in and out of the team in a 3-5-2 formation, more recently he has found a home on the left of a 4-2-3-1 shape, and his form has kicked off.
Wright has scored in back-to-back games and managed 11 shots in the process. His last six goals have been scored in his last 12, having only got two in his first 14. His scoring rate will still need to improve, but all of the building blocks are now in place for him.
Coventry are fancied for a strong play-off tilt and the American could easily be the one to fire them to the top six.
⬇️ Haji Wright Top Goalscorer E/W
* All odds displayed correctly at the time of publishing *
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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