EFL Championship Play-Offs 24/25 - Outright Tips & Trends
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Championship Play-Offs Outrights & Trends
⬆️ Sheffield United to be Promoted @ 2.75 with SkyBet
🏁 Coventry City to Progress to the Final @ 2.05 with Paddy Power
We all know the size of the prize at stake, the Championship play-off final is often referred to as the richest match in world football with the potential of getting into the Premier League and the revenue increase that comes along with that.
To help us predict who has the most potential to get into the final and, ultimately, take their place in the Premier League, we have crunched the numbers of current form, head-to-head records, and past trends to produce the best form guide available, and data informed angles in the betting markets.
💻 Current Form
In terms of results, none of the teams in the Championship top six can claim to be in good form.
Sunderland are in a historically bad run of form to still be a play-off team. It is remarkable that they still finished fourth given the fact that they have only one point from 18 coming into the post-season, but this is also a reminder of two things; how good Sunderland were in the first half of the season, and also how poor the chasing pack have been in terms of points haul.
The final total of Coventry and Bristol City in fifth and sixth is very much at the lower end of the historical average for those positions since the play-offs came into being in the late 1980s. Coventry are actually the form team of the four though, with ten points, mainly built upon conceding fewer goals than their competitors here.
However, Sheffield United actually have the most impressive performance data. They have the highest xGF total and the lowest xGA total from the last six regular season matches. This is worth noting as their good performance form isn’t borne out in their results.
📊 Head-to-Head Records (2024/2025)
There is a clear home advantage at play in the head-to-head records of the four play-off contenders. Only one of the matches between the four in the regular season ended in an away win, perhaps significantly, this was Sheffield United at Bristol City.
Sunderland have lost away at all of their rivals, and there is no reason for Bristol City to feel inferior to their competitors, despite being a bit of a surprise package. The Robins have draws at Sheffield United and Sunderland, as well as a win at home to Sunderland. If the Black Cats emerge from their semi-final against Coventry, and Bristol City come through against Sheffield United then Bristol City could be worth a bet.
🗒️ Historical Data
The historic winners of the Championship play-offs over the last decade are rarely the teams who finish in fifth and sixth. The higher ranked teams going into the post-season have been the most likely to win promotion in recent years. This has been split equally between third and fourth placed teams.
Three of the last five play-off finals have been between the third and fourth placed finishers.
There does seem to be some connection between form and success in the Championship play-offs in recent years. Last year's cohort were a generally out-of -form bunch but the team with the most points made it up.
Luton were in decent form when they went up, albeit three of the four clubs were in good nick that year. Forest had the highest expected points going into their 2022 campaign, Brentford had the same in 2021, and Fulham had the highest points total in 2020.
📈 Correlation and Coefficient of Determination Calculations
It is interesting to see what has actually been the best indicator of success for Championship clubs going into the play-offs for the past five seasons.
The data tested above suggests that the strongest relationship is between expected goals against and promotion. This suggests that teams who don't concede many chances on the way into the post-season have a better chance of achieving their goal.
This is good news for Sheffield United, and, perhaps, Sunderland coming into the 2025 play-offs.
🔮 Championship Play-Offs Predictions
The Blades are the favourites to progress into the Premier League, but there are plenty of reasons to support this fact.
Firstly, of course, they were by far the best team of the four in terms of points won over the course of the season. This has been true of Brentford (2021) and Leeds/Southampton (2024) in the past and those teams have progressed.
They also have the best defensive record in the group, especially over the last six matches. This has proven to be important as a trend recently.
United also actually have the best form by expected points from the play-off cohort. This suggests that their performances have been the best of the bunch, and, their opponents in the semi-finals Bristol City have the worst expected points total over the same period.
We have also seen over the course of the season that Sheff Utd have won a lot of closely fought matches. Whilst this has probably swung back the other way towards the end of the season, it should still stand them in good stead when it comes to the crunch here.
Sheffield United to be Promoted @ 2.75 with SkyBet
It was a surprise to see Coventry be priced up at odds against for qualification against Sunderland.
Whilst this is not to suggest that Coventry should be favourites, there is probably little in it when taking all the factors on board, so taking an odds against price about the Sky Blues reaching the final does appeal.
Sunderland arrive at the post-season in historically bad form. None of the teams in our research has ever qualified for the play-offs with only one point in their last six matches, and five defeats in a row. This cannot be helpful in terms of confidence.
Coventry also have the benefit of reaching the final in 2023 to draw on, some players do remain from that squad in the current team, and, in Frank Lampard, they have a coach who has plotted his way into a play-off final as well when at Derby in 2019.
Coventry also have a strong head-to-head record against Sunderland. This season that manifests in a 3-0 home win and a 2-2 draw at the Stadium of Light. A repeat of this, or somewhere close, would see the Sky Blues into the final.
Coventry City to Progress to the Final @ 2.05 with Paddy Power
The Championship is the crown jewel of the English Football League system, and with the prize of promotion into the Premier League, it is a really tough league for many clubs to get out of.
Plenty of research has been undertaken to find the best outright value positions for the EFL Championship, so let’s dig into our EFL Championship Predictions.
We'll be all over the EFL this season, including our usual selection of EFL Accumulator Tips for every round of fixtures. It’s not just English football we cover on Andy’s Bet Club either, with a range of Football Betting Tips & Predictions on the site every day.
We have a litany of the top UK bookmakers on offer for you to join and build up your free bet credits, as well as our Best Accumulator Bookmakers article.
Our League One Play Offs Outright Predictions and League Two Play Offs Outright Betting Tips may also pique your interest ahead of the big kick-off, as well as our Golden Boot predictions.
You can see our experts' Championship Golden Boot Tips here, along with our League One Top Goalscorer Tips and League Two Golden Boot Predictions.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
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